YES, REUNIFICATION BY ABSORPTION WOULD BE A CATASTROPHE FOR KOREA

Abstract

This article argues that reunification by absorption would make democratic institutional transfer in Korea politically unstable. Existing discussions often assume that if North Korea collapses, South Korea’s democratic institutions can simply be extended to the North. I argue that this view overlooks a prior condition: brokerage institutions capable of mediating distributive conflicts across the former divide. In their absence, post-unification democracy would likely intensify distributive conflict and political outbidding. Yet the survival of such brokerage institutions depends on the timing of their implementation and on organizational capacity. Reunification by absorption is precisely a scenario in which both conditions are structurally absent.