BRAZIL’S ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY: A COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS ACROSS GLOBAL POWERS AND THE GLOBAL SOUTH

Autores

  • XIAN ZHANG https://orcid.org/0009-0009-8308-584X
  • FRANCISCO JOSÉ B. S. LEANDRO https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1443-5828
  • ARTHUR DE DIEGO GARRIDO VIEIRA https://orcid.org/0009-0007-5541-5587

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.26619/1647-7251.DT0126.8

Palavras-chave:

Complexidade Económica, Brasil, Diversificação Económica, Sul Global, Índice de Complexidade Económica (ECI)

Resumo

Sendo a décima maior economia do mundo, o Brasil tem registado, ao longo das últimas três décadas, um declínio marcado e sustentado na sua complexidade económica. Esta trajetória descendente coloca desafios significativos à ambição do país de assumir um papel mais influente na governação económica global. Apesar do seu potencial estrutural e da sua relevância geopolítica, o Brasil continua a enfrentar obstáculos substanciais na sua transição para o estatuto de país de alto rendimento. Este estudo responde às seguintes questões de investigação: Como tem evoluído a complexidade económica do Brasil em relação às grandes potências globais e ao Sul Global? E quais os fatores que explicam o declínio contínuo da complexidade económica brasileira? Para tal, adotamos uma metodologia comparativa que examina a trajetória económica do Brasil paralelamente às economias globais líderes e a atores proeminentes do Sul Global. Recorrendo ao Índice de Complexidade Económica (ECI) como principal enquadramento analítico, a investigação identifica lacunas críticas de desenvolvimento e oportunidades estratégicas. Por meio de estudos de caso e comparações transnacionais, os resultados demonstram que, apesar de esforços políticos significativos para aumentar a complexidade económica do Brasil, o país ainda não estabeleceu as condições necessárias para reverter o seu declínio persistente. O Brasil permanece numa posição intermédia, sem a sofisticação tecnológica e a diversificação exportadora que caracterizam economias de elevada complexidade. Estas conclusões sublinham a necessidade urgente de políticas industriais direcionadas, estratégias baseadas na inovação e reformas institucionais, oferecendo orientações de política pública que permitam ao Brasil reposicionar-se na hierarquia económica global e avançar a sua agenda de desenvolvimento.

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Biografias Autor

XIAN ZHANG, https://orcid.org/0009-0009-8308-584X

She is an undergraduate student majoring Portuguese studies at University of Macau (China), with a deep interest in geopolitics and regional studies. Her academic journey was first sparked through coursework examining the political and cultural dynamics of Portuguese-speaking nations. It was further solidified by the participation in summer research program on Geopolitics of Brazil and the South Atlantic. Xian's research interests lie at the intersection of international relations and geopolitics. She seeks to understand how the world operates through geopolitical analysis. This drives her focus on the evolving dynamics between China and the Lusophone world. Her natural curiosity about Portuguese-speaking countries, combined with her linguistic background, fuels her exploration to these cross-regional relationships. It is her goal to contribute meaningful insights into China-Lusophone geopolitical dynamics and to inform policy-making processes in this region.

FRANCISCO JOSÉ B. S. LEANDRO, https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1443-5828

He received his Ph.D. in Political Science and International Relations from the Catholic University of Portugal in 2010. From 2014 to 2018, he served as the Program Coordinator at the Institute of Social and Legal Studies, Faculty of Humanities, University of Saint Joseph in Macau, China. From 2018 to 2023, he was the Associate Dean of the Institute for Research on Portuguese-Speaking Countries at the City University of Macau, China. Currently, he is an Associate Professor with Habilitation in International Relations at the Faculty of Social Sciences, University of Macau (China), and Deputy Director of the Institute for Global and Public Affairs. His recent publications include: Is China a Global Power? (2025), Palgrave Macmillan and The Palgrave Handbook on Geopolitics of Brazil and South Atlantic (2025), Palgrave Macmillan. Francisco Leandro is a member of OBSERVARE (Observatory of Foreign Relations), established in 1996 as a centre for studies on International Relations at the Autonomous University of Lisbon, Portugal.

ARTHUR DE DIEGO GARRIDO VIEIRA, https://orcid.org/0009-0007-5541-5587

He is an aspiring scholar with a keen interest in geopolitics and strategic studies. He embarked on his academic journey with a sponsorship from the Rotary Club's Youth Exchange program in Denmark during 2019-2020. This experience broadened his horizons and ignited his passion for international affairs. From 2023 to 2025, Arthur received an International Scholarship to pursue a Bachelor of Social Sciences in Government and Public Administration at the University of Macau. Specializing in International Public Affairs, he has immersed himself in the study of global political dynamics and governance structures. His academic pursuits are complemented by his active participation in various research projects and academic forums. Arthur's research interests lie at the intersection of geopolitics and strategic studies. He is particularly fascinated by the strategic interactions between nations and the geopolitical implications of global events. His work aims to contribute to a deeper understanding of international relations and to inform policy-making processes. With a solid foundation in social sciences and a passion for strategic analysis, Arthur de Diego Garrido Vieira is poised to become a significant contributor to the field of geopolitics and strategic studies.

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Publicado

2026-02-11

Edição

Vol. 16 N.º 2, TD2 (2026): Thematic Dossier - Portugal and China in International Relations: Historical Legacies and Contemporary Dynamics

Secção

ARTIGOS