O USO DA ÁRVORE DE SUCESSOS COMO MÉTODO PROSPETIVO EM GEOPOLÍTICA. O CASO DOS AÇORES NO TRANSPORTE DE GNL

Abstract

The determination of what is referred to as Potential Geopolitical Power (PGP) of a geographical region, through the Success Tree Method, constitutes the theme of this study. It is demonstrated that, by analysing a set of natural, technological, political, and economic events, as well as establishing logical relationships between them using Boolean operators, it is possible to determine both qualitatively and quantitatively the relative power of a region in a given scenario. This study includes a case study that, through the application of the method, demonstrates its feasibility.