BRAZILIAN TIVA UNDER US-CHINA STRATEGIC COMPETITION AND IMPACT ON EXPORT-RELATED JOBS (2000-2015)

Abstract

Domestic discussion in Brazil about its most suitable commercial partners to promote economic development, through deeper and broader integration onto the Global Value Chain (GVC), is a subject with divergent political narratives. Therefore, empirical evidence is crucial to complement those political considerations with a comprehensive scientific approach on the available sets of optimal choices for Brazil under great power strategic competition between China and US. Even though increasing volumes of Trade-in-Value-Added (TiVA) can boost both exports and GDP growth rates, long-term effects on labor market conditions in Brazil are linked to variables such as industrial value-added, domestic production, vertical integration, technological transfers and capital-labor ratios (K/L). Within the period 2000-2015, Brazilian TiVA exchanges with China did grow at a much faster rate than those of US, thus becoming the world second largest partner for Brazil. Through this chapter, therefore, we will measure overall effects of TiVA exchanges with both China and US on Brazilian labor market. And will also determine which countries/industries might become the most optimal choice for Brazil in terms of TiVA.