OBSERVARE
Universidade Autónoma de Lisboa
e-ISSN: 1647-7251
Vol. 16, Nº. 2
novembro 2025-abril 2026/November 2025-April 2026
Índice/Index
Vol 16, Nº. 2 – novembro 2025-abril 2026/November 2025-April 2026
DOI https://doi.org/10.26619/1647-7251.16.2
ARTIGOS/ARTICLES
Mapping the landscape of World Order Studies: a bibliometric analysis - Khushbu Dahiya & Pardeep
Kumar – pp. 3-21
Artificial Intelligence and International Relations: Navigating Opportunities and Challenges in Global
Governance - Sérgio Silva – pp. 22-39
Digital Divide: Analysing the Impact of Unequal Access to Technology on Social Mobility - Inamdar
Tipusultan Alarsaheb – pp. 40-56
Integrating International Relations into maritime vocational education: enhancing global competence
in the industry - Marudut Bernadtua Simanjuntak – pp. 57-76
Taiwan and International Organizations in US-China Competition - Antonina Łuszczykiewicz-Mendis
& Patrick Mendis – pp. 77-95
O impacto da iniciativa faixa e rota no desenvolvimento do Sudeste Asiático com destaque ao
Camboja – a continuação de um “desenvolvimento dependente”? - Paulo Víctor Basílio Jeronymo –
pp. 96-117
Rethinking China’s Gray-zone Strategies: Cases from the East China Sea, South China Sea, and
Taiwan Strait - Hsiao-chuan Liao – pp. 118-136
Rebuilding the “Arsenal of Democracy”: A Strategic Assessment of the United States National Defense
Industrial Strategy – Tran Bach Hieu, Le Hoang Kiet & Tran Xuan Hiep – pp. 137-156
Securing the Self: Ontological Security and Energy Relations in EU-Central Asia Engagement after
Ukraine - Maria Raquel Freire & Komron Fayzulloev – pp. 157-179
Russia’s turn to the East: Analysing the Drivers of Moscow's Foreign Policy towards the Asia-Pacific
region since 1991 - Mónica Román González – pp. 180-201
The Break in Russian–American Relations: Analyzing the Diplomatic Trail to the Iraq War - Ebrahim
Daryaee Motlagh – pp. 202-215
Evolution of the political regime in Ukraine: From independence to the present - Oleksandr Sych,
Dmytro Dzvinchuk, Ihor Debenko, Bohdan Hryvnak & Daryna Sekh – pp. 216-230
EU-nique perspectives? Analysing Contrasting Positions on the Russo-Ukrainian Conflict within the
EU - Matilde Ramos, Filipa Sá, Noa Silva, Mariana Resende & Isabella Castro – pp. 231-254
The Role of Cooperatives in Regional Integration: a perspective from the Western Balkans - Rui
Samarcos Lora – pp. 255-271
Mulheres em organizações internacionais: o caso de Maria de Lourdes Pintasilgo na UNESCO (1975
-1979) - Raquel Valente dos Santos – pp. 272-289
BRICS vs. G7: A Comparative Analysis of Economic and Political Efficiency in Shaping Global Order -
Patkar Kalpesh Dilip – pp. 290-306
Implications of Contemporary International Monetary System on Debt Crisis in the Global South -
Zekeri Momoh – pp. 307-328
JANUS.NET, e-journal of International Relations
ISSN: 1647-7251
Vol. 16, N.º 2
novembro 2025-abril 2026/November 2025-April 2026
Índice/Index
2
A projeção internacional de Angola: condicionantes internos da política externa e da política de defesa
- Nathaly Xavier Schutz – pp. 329-345
O processo de incubação de empresas para o fomento do empreendedorismo em Angola: na visão
dos incubados - Manuel Conceição da Silva Mendes – pp. 346-363
The Influence of Local Entrepreneurship on Social Development: A Case Study of São Tomé and
Príncipe in Achieving the SDGs - Pedro Cabrita – pp. 364-386
Relations between the People's Republic of China and Guinea-Bissau between diplomacy, economy
and security - Orazio Maria Gnerre – pp. 387-404
Between Visas and Tourism: Scientific Production, Analysis, and Implications for Research - Edgar
Romario Aranibar Ramos & Thiago Allis – pp. 405-428
Role of forensic science in protecting human rights and ensuring justice - Aparna Srivastava & Shivani
Tomar – pp. 429-444
Safe but seen? Evaluation the promise and perils of witness protection in India and the USA - Aneela
Fatima & Manya Pundhir – pp. 445-460
NOTAS/NOTES
“Orgulhosamente acompanhados”: olhar para a América Latina como Mário Soares - Andrea
Imaginário Bingre & Débora Duarte – pp. 461-496
América Latina: ¿Cómo sobrevive una región en estado de multicrisis? - German Rueda Orejarena –
pp. 497-505
Issues of application of Artificial Intelligence in civil litigation - Pirmatov Otabek Shavkatovich – pp.
506-514
The role ‘Hawala’ in financing terrorism and money laudering: the nexus between informal migrant
remittances in Europe and funding of terrorist organisations - Nozima Kholmatova – pp. 515-525
RECENSÕES CRÍTICAS/CRITICAL REVIEW
Mortágua, Joana; Castello Branco, Maria e Peralta, Susana (2024). Reflexões sobre a Liberdade –
Identidades e famílias. 1.ª edição, agosto de 2024. Alfragide: Oficina do Livro. ISBN: 978-989-581-
244-8 - Carolina Querido – pp. 526-529
OBSERVARE
Universidade Autónoma de Lisboa
e-ISSN: 1647-7251
VOL. 16, Nº. 2
November 2025-April 2026
3
MAPPING THE LANDSCAPE OF WORLD ORDER STUDIES: A BIBLIOMETRIC
ANALYSIS
KHUSHBU DAHIYA
khushbu.rs.polsc@mdurohtak.ac.in
Research scholar in the Department of Political Science at Maharshi Dayanand University, Rohtak
(India), specializing in International Relations. She is currently pursuing her doctoral research on
the topic Changing World Order. She has previously served as an Assistant Professor at Dr. B.R.
Ambedkar National Law University, Sonipat. Khushbu has presented 14 research papers at
national and international seminars and has contributed two chapters to edited volumes.
PARDEEP KUMAR
pardeep.polsc@mdurohtak.ac.in
Assistant Professor in the Department of Political Science at Maharshi Dayanand University,
Rohtak (India). With 16 years of teaching experience, he has made significant contributions to
the field through his extensive research and scholarly activities. He has published 52 research
papers in reputed national and international journals and has presented 65 papers at various
national and international seminars. He holds the position of State Vice President of the Haryana
Political Science Association and is a life member of the Indian Political Science Association. He
has also authored several notable books, including India-ASEAN: Emerging Trends Since 1990s
published by Atlantic Publishers, Research Methodology in Social Sciences, India’s Foreign Policy,
and India’s Role in the Indo-Pacific. His work reflects his deep expertise and commitment to
advancing knowledge in international relations and political science.
Abstract
The concept of "world order" is pivotal in understanding international relations and global
dynamics. This bibliometric study maps the landscape of world order research, analyzing
publication trends, intellectual structures, and future directions from 1990 to 2023. Using the
Scopus database, 6762 relevant documents were identified and analyzed through keyword,
co-authorship, co-citation, and bibliographic coupling analyses. The study highlights the
increasing volume of publications, with major contributions from the United States, the United
Kingdom, and Canada. Leading journals such as "International Affairs" and "Third World
Quarterly" are key platforms for world order discourse. Influential works by scholars like G.J.
Ikenberry and Amitav Acharya have significantly shaped the field. Several thematic clusters
were identified, focusing on polarity, power dynamics, economic shifts post-2008 financial
crisis, and China's rising influence. Future research should explore the evolving multipolar
world order, the role of emerging powers, and the impact of technological advancements on
geopolitical stability. This analysis not only synthesizes existing literature but also provides a
conceptual framework for future research, addressing gaps and proposing new directions in
the study of world order.
Keywords
Bibliometric analysis, World Order, Co-citation analysis, International Relations, International
Order.
Resumo
O conceito de «ordem mundial» é fundamental para compreender as relações internacionais
e a dinâmica global. Este estudo bibliométrico mapeia o panorama da investigação sobre a
JANUS.NET, e-journal of International Relations
e-ISSN: 1647-7251
VOL. 16, Nº. 2
November 2025-April 2026, pp. 3-21
Mapping the Landscape of World order Studies: a Bibliometric Analysis
Khushbu Dahiya, Pardeep Kumar
4
ordem mundial, analisando as tendências de publicação, as estruturas intelectuais e as
orientações futuras entre 1990 e 2023. Utilizando a base de dados Scopus, foram identificados
e analisados 6762 documentos relevantes através de análises de palavras-chave, coautoria,
cocitação e acoplamento bibliográfico. O estudo destaca o volume crescente de publicações,
com contribuições importantes dos Estados Unidos, Reino Unido e Canadá. Revistas
importantes, como «International Affairs» e «Third World Quarterly», são plataformas
fundamentais para o discurso sobre a ordem mundial. Trabalhos influentes de académicos
como G.J. Ikenberry e Amitav Acharya moldaram significativamente o campo. Foram
identificados vários grupos temáticos, com foco na polaridade, dinâmica de poder, mudanças
económicas após a crise financeira de 2008 e a crescente influência da China. Pesquisas
futuras devem explorar a evolução da ordem mundial multipolar, o papel das potências
emergentes e o impacto dos avanços tecnológicos na estabilidade geopolítica. Esta análise
não apenas sintetiza a literatura existente, mas também fornece uma estrutura conceitual
para pesquisas futuras, abordando lacunas e propondo novos rumos no estudo da ordem
mundial.
Palavras-chave
Análise bibliométrica, Ordem Mundial, Análise de co-citação, Relações Internacionais, Ordem
Internacional.
How to cite this article
Dahiya, Khushbu & Kumar, Pardeep (2025). Mapping the Landscape of World order Studies: a
Bibliometric Analysis. Janus.net, e-journal of international relations. VOL. 16, Nº. 2, November
2025-April 2026, pp. 3-21. DOI https://doi.org/10.26619/1647-7251.16.2.1
Article submitted on 29th November 2024 and accepted for publication on 30th
September 2025.
JANUS.NET, e-journal of International Relations
e-ISSN: 1647-7251
VOL. 16, Nº. 2
November 2025-April 2026, pp. 3-21
Mapping the Landscape of World order Studies: a Bibliometric Analysis
Khushbu Dahiya, Pardeep Kumar
5
MAPPING THE LANDSCAPE OF WORLD ORDER STUDIES: A
BIBLIOMETRIC ANALYSIS
KHUSHBU DAHIYA
PARDEEP KUMAR
Introduction
The concept of the World Order is fundamental to understanding international relations
and global developments. U.S. President Woodrow Wilson used the term 'new world
order' after World War I to envision a system for maintaining international peace and
security, coinciding with the establishment of the League of Nations. This political order
had already been in place in the Western world for several centuries (Grinin, L. 2016).
A “world order” in its true global sense has never existed that accommodated the needs,
desires, and wishes of all. The modern international order, often regarded as having its
origins in the Peace of Westphalia, was established in Western Europe at a peace
conference. This conference, known as the "Peace of Westphalia," accommodated the
practical realities of it (Kissinger, H. 2015). However, it wasn’t until the post-World War
II era that the true implications of Westphalia began to manifest in the form of a bipolar
world order. The bipolar world order that emerged after World War II was characterized
by the dominance of two superpowers, the United States and the Soviet Union. The
collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991 heralded the dawn of a unipolar world order
characterized by American hegemony and the ascendancy of liberal democracy and free-
market capitalism as the prevailing norms of governance. In the twenty-first century, the
world order stands at a crossroads, buffeted by a confluence of geopolitical,
technological, and environmental upheavals that have upended traditional paradigms of
power and governance. This concept has recently become the focal point of academic
discourse, given its pervasive influence on diplomatic relations, trade dynamics, security
paradigms, and human rights discourse. In recent years, the concept of world order has
been used more often to depict changes in today’s international system. Following the
2008 financial crisis and China's growing economic power, experts and scholars
frequently argue that the United States has lost its dominant position. They suggest that
a significant shift away from unipolarity is taking place (Brooks & Wohlforth, 2016). As a
result, there is growing interest among government analysts, policymakers, and the
academic community in comprehending the concept of world order. However, the field of
world order is vast and diverse, encompassing a wide range of disciplines and
perspectives, including studies focusing on polarity and power dynamics among nations.
This diversity poses a significant challenge for researchers attempting to synthesize an
objective review of world-order literature under a single framework. The interdisciplinary
JANUS.NET, e-journal of International Relations
e-ISSN: 1647-7251
VOL. 16, Nº. 2
November 2025-April 2026, pp. 3-21
Mapping the Landscape of World order Studies: a Bibliometric Analysis
Khushbu Dahiya, Pardeep Kumar
6
nature of the field results in a multitude of theories, methodologies, and interpretations.
As a result, achieving a comprehensive understanding of world order necessitates
navigating through a complex tapestry of ideas and approaches, making the task of
providing a unified analysis challenging. The increasing number of publications makes it
essential to take a meta-perspective of the world-order research field.
Rationale of the study
The contemporary global order is often described as being in a state of crisis, yet there
is little agreement on whether this crisis is intrinsic to the order itself or indicative of a
deeper systemic issue. While the literature on changing power dynamics, global
challenges, the decline of the West, the rise of regional groupings, shifts in the global
power hierarchy, and the increasing importance of maritime security is rapidly expanding,
clarity and consensus on the emergence of a post-Western or post-American world order
remain lacking. Previous research has predominantly addressed historical perspectives
on world order, Euro-centric pluralistic international order, the American concept of
order, the decline of US hegemony, the decline of the West, the emerging Asian century,
and the post-American world order. However, these studies have yielded inconclusive
results, and scholars hold differing views on the polycentric nature of the world order and
whether we are moving towards a new world order or if this is merely rhetorical.
Currently, the rise of various multi and mini-lateral groups in different global regions
suggests signs of multipolarity. Key questions remain unanswered, such as whether
economic relations are supplanting political ones in the international arena, the validity
of the Asian century narrative, the role of non-state actors, and the roles of Western
stable powers and rising powers like China, Japan, Brazil, and India in these changing
dynamics. Moreover, there is a notable gap in bibliometric studies on the topic of world
order. Despite the extensive qualitative and quantitative research available, there has
been little effort to systematically analyze and map the scholarly literature on this subject
using bibliometric methods. This represents a significant gap in the existing research, as
bibliometric studies could provide valuable insights into the evolution, trends, and key
contributors to the discourse on world order. This study aims to bridge this gap by
providing a thorough bibliometric analysis of world order. The following research
questions will be addressed by this study:
RQ1: What publication trend is the world order field currently experiencing? Which
countries, organizations, authors, and articles have had the biggest impact on this field?
RQ2: What is the current state of the field's intellectual structure? In what way might it
be incorporated to create a conceptual framework?
RQ3: What are the future directions for this field of study, and what research trends are
now influencing world order research?
The research offers an intricate examination of thematic clusters, identifying potential
avenues for future research within each cluster. Furthermore, the knowledge domains
have been defined, which has prepared the way for the development of a conceptual
framework, an essential instrument for addressing potential gaps in existing literature.
The article's structure is as follows: The initial section provides an explanation of the
research methodology, outlining the process of data retrieval and screening.
JANUS.NET, e-journal of International Relations
e-ISSN: 1647-7251
VOL. 16, Nº. 2
November 2025-April 2026, pp. 3-21
Mapping the Landscape of World order Studies: a Bibliometric Analysis
Khushbu Dahiya, Pardeep Kumar
7
Subsequently, the analysis and findings section delineate the results of co-citation and
co-occurrence networks. This is followed by an examination of clusters identified through
bibliographic coupling analysis and the proposal of future research directions. A
subsequent section introduces a conceptual framework derived from cluster themes.
Finally, the discussion segment delves into the theoretical and practical implications as
well as the study's limitations.
Material and Methods
In the current article, bibliometric analysis is employed for three key reasons,
contributing to the growing number of systematic literature reviews using this approach.
Firstly, bibliometric analysis assists in organizing and categorizing literature on any
subject, offering a structured perspective on the advancement of knowledge in a
particular field through scientific mapping. Secondly, this method facilitates retrospective
analysis by identifying trends, research areas, overarching themes, and subtopics within
the field. Lastly, it provides an overview of trends such as prominent authors, papers,
journals, and nations related to the subject being researched, thereby supporting specific
areas and sources of interest in the discipline. Synthesizing various outputs and
knowledge gained through different bibliometric methodologies enables researchers and
practitioners to identify research gaps and establish future research directions.
Methodology for Searching and Retrieving Data”
The retrieval, selection, and analysis of data from the literature were done using a
multi-stage method (Figure 1).
Figure 1. Flow Diagram of Search Strategy
Source: Author (s)
Stage 1
Database Search
Stage 2
Time Filtration
Stage 6
Source Type
Stage 5
Language Filtration
Stage 4 Document
Filtration
Keywords: “World Order” OR “Global Order” OR “International Order” OR
“Changing World Order” OR “New World Order” - 11,784 documents
Journal and Book only - 6827 documents
Timespan: 1990-2023 - 11,230 documents
Subject Area: Social Science - 8790 documents
Document type: Journal, Book Chapter and Book -
7822 documents
Language: English - 7182 documents
Stage 7 Stage of
Publication
Publication Stage Final - 6762 documents
JANUS.NET, e-journal of International Relations
e-ISSN: 1647-7251
VOL. 16, Nº. 2
November 2025-April 2026, pp. 3-21
Mapping the Landscape of World order Studies: a Bibliometric Analysis
Khushbu Dahiya, Pardeep Kumar
8
The first stage involved conducting an extensive search in the Scopus database by
selecting keywords such as World Order, Global Order, International Order, Changing
World Order, and New World Order. The keyword selection was not limited to 'World
Order' alone. The next step was figuring out which database to use to gather articles. As
a dependable database for gathering articles for quantitative analysis, Scopus is highly
recognized throughout the world (Guerrero-Baena et al., 2015;Duran-Sanchez et al.,
2019); Valenzuela-Fernandez et al., 2019). We combed over articles in the World Order
field using the Scopus database.
This database is considered to be the largest multidisciplinary collection of peer-reviewed
literature in the field of social sciences (Norris & Oppenheim, 2007). As of now, Scopus
contains over 94 million documents with more than 2.4 billion cited references. It is
important to note that these numbers are subject to change as the database is regularly
updated. The data was accessed on April 8, 2024, and includes influential articles dating
back to 1979 up to 2024, with a larger concentration of articles from 1990 onwards. The
database includes various types of documents such as research articles, book chapters,
reviews, letters, and notes, totaling more than 11,230. After the initial extraction of
documents based on selected keywords, the next step involved the elimination of
irrelevant documents. A wide range of papers from several disciplines, including food
science, psychology, marketing, and other facets of life, were included in the list. As
such, it needed to be carefully screened. After removing articles by scrutinizing the
headline and keywords and restricting the topic to social sciences, we were left with 8790
documents. After more screening that looked at the language, source type, and
document type, the total was reduced to 6827. Upon choosing the ultimate publication
phase, we ultimately found 6762 papers that pertain to the field of world order.
The collection of studies involved gathering bibliographic data in CSV format from Scopus.
The data obtained from the Scopus database included various metrics such as h-index,
citations per paper and author, total publications and citations. We also tracked multiple
forms of citation and publication information using Scopus IDs. The VOS Viewer, a tool
for clustering and creating network (.net) files, was used to process the CSV file. The tool
helped in visually representing co-occurrence and co-authorship networks and calculating
network centralities. To gain a comprehensive understanding of the study on a global
scale, network analyses such as keyword analysis, co-authorship analysis, co-citation
analysis, and bibliographic coupling analysis were performed. The study period's most
common themes were identified through keyword analysis.
The relationships between contributing authors, institutions, and nations were
investigated by the co-authorship analysis. In addition, this analysis contributes to our
understanding of the collaboration network, which can help us comprehend a particular
research topic even better (Bhukya et al., 2022;Randhawa et al., 2016).
JANUS.NET, e-journal of International Relations
e-ISSN: 1647-7251
VOL. 16, Nº. 2
November 2025-April 2026, pp. 3-21
Mapping the Landscape of World order Studies: a Bibliometric Analysis
Khushbu Dahiya, Pardeep Kumar
9
Findings and analysis
Trends and development of World Order research
Main Information
After extracting the search query from the Scopus database, I identified the main
features provided in Table 1. The dataset includes a total of 6,762 documents spanning
from 1920 to 2023. On average, each item has 12.28 citations and 329408 references.
The consistent citation of these materials suggests that the study of international order
has been ongoing for quite some time, possibly even before World War II, highlighting
the enduring relevance of this academic field.
“
Table 1. Main Information Regarding Selected Articles”
Source: Author (s)
Annual Publication Trends
Figure 2 highlights the annual growth in scientific publications on world order from 1990
to 2023. From 1990 to 2000, article production remained low, fluctuating between 0 and
200 annually, indicating limited scholarly interest. A gradual increase occurred between
2001 and 2007, with a noticeable rise from 2005, as publications surpassed 200 per year
by 2007. From 2008 to 2015, the number of articles increased steadily, reaching around
400 annually by 2015, reflecting growing academic attention, likely due to evolving global
geopolitical dynamics.
In recent years, from 2016 to 2023, the growth rate accelerated, surpassing 500 articles
per year from 2017 onwards, and approaching 600 by 2023, marking the highest level
of scholarly output on world order to date. This trend reflects the increasing relevance of
JANUS.NET, e-journal of International Relations
e-ISSN: 1647-7251
VOL. 16, Nº. 2
November 2025-April 2026, pp. 3-21
Mapping the Landscape of World order Studies: a Bibliometric Analysis
Khushbu Dahiya, Pardeep Kumar
10
world order studies in response to contemporary global challenges, underscoring the
field’s importance within international relations and related disciplines.
Figure 2. Annual Publications Trend
Source: Author (s)
Most Productive Journals
In order to comprehend the most eminent publications on the topic of World Order, this
study determined the top 10 contributing journals (see Table 2).
“
Table 2. Most Productive Journals
“TOP 10 CONTRIBUTING JOURNALS”
“S.No.”
“Name of the Journal”
Publisher
TP
TC
AC
h
g
1.
International Affairs
Oxford
University
Press
93
3985
42.84
33
62
2.
Third World Quarterly
Taylor &
Francis
85
3022
35.55
30
53
3.
International Politics
Palgrave
Macmillan
70
611
8.72
13
20
4.
Globalizations
Taylor &
Francis
55
489
8.89
13
18
5.
Review of International
Studies
Cambridge
University
Press
55
1986
36.10
21
44
6.
European Journal of
International Relations
Sage
53
1584
29.88
21
39
7.
International Relations
Sage
50
835
16.7
15
27
8.
Cambridge Review of
International Affairs
Taylor &
Francis
43
363
8.44
10
17
9.
Millenium: Journal of
International Studies
Sage
39
1010
25.89
18
31
10.
Pacific Review
Taylor &
Francis
38
413
10.86
12
18
Source: Author (s)
JANUS.NET, e-journal of International Relations
e-ISSN: 1647-7251
VOL. 16, Nº. 2
November 2025-April 2026, pp. 3-21
Mapping the Landscape of World order Studies: a Bibliometric Analysis
Khushbu Dahiya, Pardeep Kumar
11
Table 2 lists the top 10 contributing journals in the field of international affairs, detailing
metrics such as total publications (TP), total citations (TC), average citations per
publication (AC), h-index, and g-index. "International Affairs" leads with 93 publications
and the highest average citations (42.84), reflecting its strong impact. "Third World
Quarterly," published by Taylor & Francis, follows with 85 publications and notable
citation metrics (AC of 35.55). "International Politics," from Palgrave Macmillan, has 70
publications but a lower average citation rate (8.72). "Globalizations" and the "Review of
International Studies" (Cambridge University Press) have 55 publications each, with the
latter having a significantly higher citation impact (AC of 36.10). Other notable journals
include the "European Journal of International Relations" (Sage) with 53 publications and
strong citation metrics, and "Millennium: Journal of International Studies" (Sage), which,
despite fewer publications, maintains a solid citation profile. The "Pacific Review" (Taylor
& Francis) rounds out the list with 38 publications. These journals collectively contribute
significantly to the discourse on international affairs, as evidenced by their citation and
publication metrics.
Country-Perspective Overview
Table 3. Top Publishing Countries on World Order
TOP 10 PUBLISHING COUNTRIES
S.No.
Country
TC
Average Article Citation
1.
USA
6518
13.40
2.
UK
6408
15.60
3.
Canada
1553
11.10
4.
Australia
1378
10.10
5.
Germany
1296
11.40
6.
China
1217
8.40
7.
Netherlands
963
19.70
8.
South Africa
617
14.70
9.
Denmark
586
16.30
10.
Sweden
502
13.60
Source: Author (s)
The table on the "Top 10 Publishing Countries" lists countries by their total number of
citations (TC) and the average number of citations per article. The USA tops the list with
6518 citations and an average of 13.40 citations per article, showcasing its dominant role
in academic publishing. The UK follows closely with 6408 citations and a higher average
citation rate of 15.60, indicating a strong influence in highly cited research. Canada ranks
third with 1553 citations and an average of 11.10, highlighting its significant yet smaller
contribution compared to the USA and UK. Australia and Germany round out the top five,
with citation counts of 1378 and 1296 and average citations per article of 10.10 and
11.40, respectively, demonstrating their active participation in global research. China,
the Netherlands, South Africa, Denmark, and Sweden complete the list, with the
Netherlands standing out for its high average citation rate of 19.70, suggesting its
JANUS.NET, e-journal of International Relations
e-ISSN: 1647-7251
VOL. 16, Nº. 2
November 2025-April 2026, pp. 3-21
Mapping the Landscape of World order Studies: a Bibliometric Analysis
Khushbu Dahiya, Pardeep Kumar
12
research is particularly impactful. This table illustrates the geographic distribution of
academic influence and highlights the country’s leading in scholarly contributions.
Most Cited Documents (Global)
Table 4. Most Cited Documents (Global)
S.No.
Author(s)
Document Title
Source Title
TC
1.
Ikenberry GJ (2009)
“After Victory: Institution,
Strategic Restraint, & the
Rebuilding of Order after Major
Wars”
Princeton
University Press
927
2.
Mazower M. (2009)
No Enchanted Palace: The End
of Empire and the Ideological
Origins of the UN
Princeton
University Press
713
3.
Adler E. (1992)
Conclusion: Epistemic
Communities, World Order and
the creation of a reflective
research program
International
Organization
677
4.
Balakrishnan
Rajagopal (2003)
International Law from Below:
Development, Social
Movements and Third World
Resistance
Cambridge
University Press
661
5.
Ikenberry GJ (2018)
The End of Liberal International
Order?
Oxford University
Press
561
6.
Andrew Hurrell (2007)
On Global Order: Power, Values,
and the Constitution of
International Society
Oxford University
Press
548
7.
Ikenberry GJ (2011)
Liberal Leviathan: The Origins,
Crisis, and transformation of the
American World Order
Princeton
University Press
490
8.
Mark Purcell (2003)
Citizenship and the Right to the
Gobal City: Reimagining the
Capitalist World Order
International
Journal of Urban
and Regional
Research
449
9.
Amitav Acharya
(2014)
Global International Relations
(IR) and Regional Worlds: A
New Agenda for International
Studies
International
Studies Quarterly
431
10.
Stefan Halper (2004)
America Alone: The Neo-
Conservatives and the Global
Order
Cambridge
University Press
392
Source: Author (s)”
The "Most Cited Documents (Global)" table provides a list of the top ten most cited
documents in the context of world order studies. At the top is Ikenberry, G. John. (2019)
book "After Victory: Institution Strategic Restraint & the Rebuilding of Order after Major
Wars," published by Princeton University Press, with 927 citations. This work explores
how victorious powers use institutions to maintain post-war order with historical cases
JANUS.NET, e-journal of International Relations
e-ISSN: 1647-7251
VOL. 16, Nº. 2
November 2025-April 2026, pp. 3-21
Mapping the Landscape of World order Studies: a Bibliometric Analysis
Khushbu Dahiya, Pardeep Kumar
13
such as the post-Napoleonic era, the aftermath of World War I, and the post-World War
II period to understand how leading states establish enduring international orders.
Following this is Mazower, M. M. (2009) book "No Enchanted Palace: The End of Empire
and the Ideological Origins of the UN," also from Princeton University Press, with 713
citations, discussing the UN's formation in the context of decolonization. It offers a critical
examination of the historical and ideological roots of the United Nations. (Adler & Haas,
1992) article on epistemic communities in "International Organization" is third with 677
citations, contributing to the understanding of knowledge networks in international
relations. It explores the concept of epistemic communities and their role in shaping
international policy and world order. Rajagopal's 2003 book "International Law from
Below," which discusses development, social movements, and third-world resistance, has
661 citations. Rajagopal challenges the traditional, top-down approach to international
law, which often reflects the interests of powerful states and elites, and instead highlights
the role of grassroots movements in shaping legal norms and practices. Ikenberry
appears again with his 2018 article "The End of Liberal International Order?" at 561
citations which critically examines the challenges and uncertainties facing the liberal
international order in the contemporary global landscape. These documents are pivotal
in shaping contemporary understandings of international relations and global
governance.
Top Contributing authors
Table 5. Most Productive Authors
S.No.
Author
Name
TC
TP
h
g
M
PY_start
1.
Ikenberry,
GJ.
3447
27
18
27
0.667
1998
2.
Falk, R.
195
24
8
13
0.267
1995
3.
Acharya, A.
1198
18
10
18
0.303
1992
4.
M Smith
165
14
6
12
0.286
2004
5.
Cox, RW.
693
13
6
13
0.182
1992
6.
Philips
Andrew
194
13
7
13
0.467
2010
7.
Thakur, R.
213
13
4
13
0.235
2008
8.
Buzan, B.
776
12
7
12
0.250
1997
9.
HE K
107
12
4
10
0.444
2016
10.
Held, D.
273
12
6
12
0.182
1992
Source: Author (s)
The "Top Contributing Authors" table identifies the most influential scholars in world order
studies, ranked by total citations (TC), total publications (TP), h-index, g-index, m-index,
and the year they began publishing (PY_start). G.J. Ikenberry leads with 3447 citations
and 27 publications, known for his influential work on international relations and the
liberal world order. His research advocates for multilateralism and the strategic use of
international institutions to promote global cooperation. Richard Falk, with 195 citations
JANUS.NET, e-journal of International Relations
e-ISSN: 1647-7251
VOL. 16, Nº. 2
November 2025-April 2026, pp. 3-21
Mapping the Landscape of World order Studies: a Bibliometric Analysis
Khushbu Dahiya, Pardeep Kumar
14
and 24 publications, has significantly contributed to discussions on global governance
and human rights. Amitav Acharya, with 1198 citations and 18 publications, focuses on
regionalism and non-Western contributions to international studies, particularly in his
book The End of American World Order, which examines the rise of a multipolar world.
M. Smith (165 citations) and Robert Cox (693 citations) have also contributed, with Cox
recognized for his critical theory approach. Andrew Philips and Ramesh Thakur, both with
around 13 publications, explore global security and international institutions. Barry
Buzan, with 776 citations, is notable for his work on security studies and international
society theory. Ke He and David Held, each with 12 publications, have contributed to
political theory and global democracy. These scholars have significantly shaped the field
of global order and international relations through their research and theoretical
contributions.
Co-authorship network of countries in world order
The dynamics and structure of the world order knowledge area will now be visualized.
The co-authorship network serves as an example of how academics from different
universities and nations collaborate on projects related to academia (Donthu et al., 2020)
Figure 3
Source: Author(s)
The graph in Figure 3 displays a network of co-authorship among 57 countries that have
co-authored at least six scientific publications. This network consists of 316 links and 979
JANUS.NET, e-journal of International Relations
e-ISSN: 1647-7251
VOL. 16, Nº. 2
November 2025-April 2026, pp. 3-21
Mapping the Landscape of World order Studies: a Bibliometric Analysis
Khushbu Dahiya, Pardeep Kumar
15
total link strength, forming ten clusters of different colors based on the relatedness of
articles from various nations. In Figure 3, each node represents a country, and its co-
authorship links with other countries are indicated by the edges. The size of the node
reflects the amount of co-authorship linkages, with the United States being the largest
node with 50 links and 331 total link strength. Australia and the UK have the thickest
margins, suggesting that researchers based in China primarily collaborate with
organizations in the US.
In a study article, scholars from the United States, the United Kingdom, and Germany
collaborated with Chinese scholars. The United Kingdom is a member of cluster six (sky
blue) and is the second largest circle. The largest cluster (red), consisting of eight
members, shows collaboration among authors from institutions in democratic countries
with governance based on representative democracy principles. All the countries in the
red cluster actively participate in initiatives to promote international peace and security.
Co-occurrence of keywords in world order
Keyword co-occurrence or co-word analysis can be used to expand on the content of each
topic cluster and suggest future prospects for certain study domains (Donthu et al., 2021)
According to (Goel et al., 2021), there is a greater probability of a similar topic among
keywords that belong to the same cluster. We developed a term thesaurus file based on
recommendations from (Van Eck et al., 2010)
Figure 4
Source: Author (s)
JANUS.NET, e-journal of International Relations
e-ISSN: 1647-7251
VOL. 16, Nº. 2
November 2025-April 2026, pp. 3-21
Mapping the Landscape of World order Studies: a Bibliometric Analysis
Khushbu Dahiya, Pardeep Kumar
16
The research paper displays a graph showing the significance and relationship between
key topics. There were 59 keywords that appeared more than 30 times, resulting in 1029
connections with a total connection strength of 3181. The network formed five clusters,
each represented by a different color. The size of the colored circles corresponds to the
frequency of the keyword's appearance. The thickness of the lines connecting the
keywords indicates the strength of their relationship - the thicker the line, the stronger
the correlation between the two words.
The investigation focused on the use of terms related to international order and China.
The first cluster (red) includes 16 elements such as united nations, sovereignty, power,
legitimacy, international society, international law, international institutions, human
rights, governance, globalization, global order, global governance, diplomacy,
cosmopolitan, and climate change. In this cluster, "international order" is the most
frequently used term, with 52 links and a total link strength of 309. The second largest
node (blue) in the network is China, indicating its significance in the research topic. The
third cluster includes 12 items related to world order, soft power, neoliberalism,
international relations, India, global south, development, COVID-19, China, BRICS, Belt
and Road Initiative, and Africa. The second cluster (green) covers 13 items such as US
foreign policy, regionalism, populism, multipolarity, multilateralism, liberalism, liberal
order, liberal international order, identity, hegemony, globalization, foreign policy, and
crisis. The fourth cluster (yellow) focuses on democracy, European Union, Europe, EU,
NATO, Russia, security, Ukraine, and United States. Lastly, the last cluster (purple)
discusses key issues including cold war, empire, geopolitics, imperialism, Japan,
nationalism, new world order, terrorism, and war.
Bibliographic coupling of documents
Figure 5
Source: Author (s)
Referencing two documents with the same reference is known as bibliographic coupling
(Zainuldin& Lui, 2022). If two articles have a sizable number of similar citations, that
JANUS.NET, e-journal of International Relations
e-ISSN: 1647-7251
VOL. 16, Nº. 2
November 2025-April 2026, pp. 3-21
Mapping the Landscape of World order Studies: a Bibliometric Analysis
Khushbu Dahiya, Pardeep Kumar
17
indicates a strong coupling strength (Jain et al., 2021). As a result, there is a good chance
that articles referencing the same references will have content overlap. According
to(Koseoglu et al., 2016) and (Zainuldin& Lui, 2022), it provides an active approach to
analyzing the topic's intellectual structure. To obtain the knowledge clusters in our cross-
listing experiment, we therefore used bibliographic coupling. Cluster construction
requires a minimum of 115 times the threshold level because many publications have
been cited together. In the final eight clusters, there were 64 entries.
Cluster 1: Foundational Theories and Early Research
The largest network node is Cluster 1, which is indicated in red (see Figure 5).The red
cluster centers around foundational theories and seminal works, with "Mitchell T. (1998)"
as a prominent document. This cluster likely includes key early research that has
significantly influenced the field. The documents here may discuss core theoretical
frameworks, methodologies, and pioneering studies that set the stage for subsequent
research. The strong internal connections suggest that these works are frequently cited
together, indicating their foundational importance in establishing the basic principles and
concepts within the field.
Cluster 2: Comprehensive Reviews and Key Theories (Late 2000s - Early
2010s)
The second largest network in the dataset is Cluster 2, which is indicated by the green
tint. The green cluster features comprehensive reviews and key theoretical contributions
published in the late 2000s and early 2010s. Notable documents include "Ikenberry G.J.
(2009a, 2009b, 2011b)" and "Acharya A. (2014)". This cluster likely delves into
discussions on global governance, institutionalism, and international political theories.
The documents within this cluster are highly interconnected, suggesting that these works
are pivotal in synthesizing existing knowledge and proposing new theoretical insights that
have shaped contemporary understandings in the field.
Cluster 3: Mid-2000s Theoretical and Empirical Studies
Bubbles in the colour blue are used to symbolize Cluster 3.The blue cluster consists of
documents primarily focused on theoretical frameworks and empirical studies conducted
around the mid-2000s. Key documents in this cluster include works by "Hurrell A. (2006,
2008)", "Foot R. (2006)", and "Chin G.; Thakur R. (2010)". The topics covered likely
involve international relations, governance, and policy studies. The cluster's
interconnectedness reflects a rich body of research that builds on shared theoretical
underpinnings and addresses common empirical questions, contributing to the
development and refinement of theories during this period.
JANUS.NET, e-journal of International Relations
e-ISSN: 1647-7251
VOL. 16, Nº. 2
November 2025-April 2026, pp. 3-21
Mapping the Landscape of World order Studies: a Bibliometric Analysis
Khushbu Dahiya, Pardeep Kumar
18
Cluster 4: Emerging Trends and Specialized Research
The yellow cluster includes more recent or specialized documents, with "Mazower M.
(2009)" as a key work. This cluster likely addresses emerging trends or niche areas within
the broader field. The topics may involve newer theoretical approaches, specific case
studies, or contemporary issues that reflect ongoing developments and shifts in research
focus. The connections within this cluster indicate that these documents are exploring
cutting-edge ideas or responding to recent developments in the field.
Cluster 5: Regional and Security Studies (Mid to Late 2000s)
The purple cluster comprises a mix of theoretical and empirical studies from the mid to
late 2000s, with key documents like "Bilgin P. (2008)" and "Rajagopal B. (2003)". The
research in this cluster likely deals with regional studies, security issues, and specific
geopolitical events. The documents are interconnected, suggesting that they share
common themes and contribute to a cohesive body of literature that addresses regional
dynamics and security concerns from various perspectives.
Cluster 6: Cultural, Social, and Interdisciplinary Research
The cyan cluster focuses on cultural, social, and interdisciplinary aspects, with key
documents such as "Callahan W.A. (2008)", "Selby J. (2007)", and "Jones L.; Zeng J.
(2019)". This cluster likely explores cultural analysis, social impact studies, and
interdisciplinary research that bridges multiple fields. The interconnectedness within the
cluster indicates a shared interest in understanding the social and cultural dimensions of
the broader field, contributing to a more holistic and multifaceted perspective.
These cluster headings and explanations provide a structured overview of the different
thematic areas represented in the bibliographic coupling diagram, highlighting the key
focuses and contributions of each group of documents.
Scope for further study
A bibliometric analysis of world order identifies key areas for further research. Non-
Western contributions from the Global South call into question Western-centric
perspectives, underlining the importance of investigating how these voices impact global
discourse. The growing impact of developing countries such as China, India, and the EU
emphasizes the need of analyzing multipolarity using publishing trends to identify
relevant scholars and themes. The roles of regional organizations in international stability
and policy, as well as the intersections of technology, AI, and cybersecurity with
governance, need to be addressed. The COVID-19 pandemic has transformed global
priorities, emphasizing health security and global governance changes. These ideas can
serve as a foundation for rigorous, future-oriented research.
JANUS.NET, e-journal of International Relations
e-ISSN: 1647-7251
VOL. 16, Nº. 2
November 2025-April 2026, pp. 3-21
Mapping the Landscape of World order Studies: a Bibliometric Analysis
Khushbu Dahiya, Pardeep Kumar
19
Figure 6
Source: Author (s)
Limitations of study
The bibliometric method described has certain drawbacks. The included publications do
not represent the full body of research; rather, they are merely a sample. Because the
study is limited to the top articles rather than the whole sample, a single publication has
a greater influence on the findings of the analysis. An examination of co-citations gives
preference to earlier works. We concentrated on the major ideas and frameworks that
underpin the field of study in order to stay within the parameters of our paper. New
trends, such as digital sensory marketing, may be underrepresented. Despite the fact
that impartiality is a major benefit of bibliometric research, some arbitrary decisions, like
determining the number of components and the threshold for top publications, still affect
the outcome. The emphasis on publications with high FLs tends to exaggerate how unique
each research stream is. Research streams in a subject of interconnected studies
generally overlap. There is a chance of oversimplification when putting a few facts
together in a framework. We appreciate its usefulness in offering a roadmap for situating
research issues within larger contexts and highlighting paths to advance dialogue.
Conclusion
In conclusion, this bibliometric analysis provides a comprehensive overview of the
evolving landscape within world order studies. Examining a dataset encompassing more
than 6,700 documents indexed in the Scopus database from 1990 to 2023, our study
reveals a discernible upward trajectory in scholarly output, indicative of the increasing
prominence and interest in international relations and global governance over the past
three decades. Noteworthy scholars such as G.J. Ikenberry, R. Falk, and A. Acharya have
significantly influenced the discourse through their seminal works, contributing to a
deeper understanding of concepts such as global governance, regionalism, and the
dynamics of geopolitical relationships. The analysis of co-citation and bibliographic
coupling networks unveils robust patterns of collaboration among scholars across various
JANUS.NET, e-journal of International Relations
e-ISSN: 1647-7251
VOL. 16, Nº. 2
November 2025-April 2026, pp. 3-21
Mapping the Landscape of World order Studies: a Bibliometric Analysis
Khushbu Dahiya, Pardeep Kumar
20
geographical regions, illustrating the truly globalized nature of research in this field.
These collaborative networks not only highlight the interconnectedness of ideas but also
underscore the diverse perspectives that enrich the study of world order dynamics.
Moreover, this study identifies several thematic clusters that have emerged as focal
points of research, including the role of emerging powers in shaping global order, the
effectiveness of international institutions in addressing transnational challenges, and the
implications of technological advancements on geopolitical landscapes. By synthesizing
extensive literature into actionable insights, this analysis lays a solid foundation for
further inquiry into how these themes will continue to shape the future of international
relations and global governance. By illuminating key trends and identifying areas for
future exploration, this study fosters ongoing discussions and advancements in our
understanding of world order in the 21st century.
References
Acharya, A. (2014). Global international relations (IR) and regional worlds: A new agenda
for international studies. International Studies Quarterly, 58(4), 647–659.
https://doi.org/10.1111/ISQU.12171
Acharya, A. (2014). The end of American world order (Vol. 6). Polity Press.
Adler, E., & Haas, P. M. (1992). Conclusion: Epistemic communities, world order, and the
creation of a reflective research program. International Organization, 46(1), 367–390.
https://doi.org/10.1017/S0020818300001533
Bhukya, R., Paul, J., Kastanakis, M., & Robinson, S. (2022). Forty years of European
Management Journal: A bibliometric overview. European Management Journal, 40(1),
10–28. https://doi.org/10.1016/J.EMJ.2021.04.001
Brooks, S. G., & Wohlforth, W. C. (2016). America abroad: The United States' global role
in the 21st century. Oxford University Press.
Donthu, N., Kumar, S., & Pattnaik, D. (2020). Forty-five years of Journal of Business
Research: A bibliometric analysis. Journal of Business Research, 109, 1–14.
https://doi.org/10.1016/J.JBUSRES.2019.10.039
Donthu, N., Kumar, S., Mukherjee, D., Pandey, N., & Lim, W. M. (2021). How to conduct
a bibliometric analysis: An overview and guidelines. Journal of Business Research, 133,
285–296. https://doi.org/10.1016/J.JBUSRES.2021.04.070
Duran-Sanchez, A., García, J. Á., Del Río-Rama, M. C., & Ratten, V. (2019). Trends and
changes in the International Journal of Entrepreneurial Behaviour and Research: A
bibliometric review. International Journal of Entrepreneurial Behaviour and Research,
25(7), 1494–1514. https://doi.org/10.1108/IJEBR-04-2019-0249
Goel, R. K., Saunoris, J. W., & Goel, S. S. (2021). Supply chain performance and
economic growth: The impact of COVID-19 disruptions. Journal of Policy Modeling, 43(2),
298–316. https://doi.org/10.1016/J.JPOLMOD.2021.01.003
Guerrero-Baena, M. D., Gómez-Limón, J. A., & Fruet, J. V. (2015). A multicriteria method
for environmental management system selection: An intellectual capital approach.
JANUS.NET, e-journal of International Relations
e-ISSN: 1647-7251
VOL. 16, Nº. 2
November 2025-April 2026, pp. 3-21
Mapping the Landscape of World order Studies: a Bibliometric Analysis
Khushbu Dahiya, Pardeep Kumar
21
Journal of Cleaner Production, 105, 428–437.
https://doi.org/10.1016/J.JCLEPRO.2014.07.079
Halper, S., & Clarke, J. (2004). America alone: The neo-conservatives and the global
order. Cambridge University Press.
Hurrell, A. (2007). On global order. Oxford University Press.
Ikenberry, G. J. (2011). Liberal leviathan: The origins, crisis, and transformation of the
American world order. Princeton University Press.
Ikenberry, G. J. (2018). The end of liberal international order? International Affairs,
94(1), 7–23.
Ikenberry, G. J. (2019). After victory: Institutions, strategic restraint, and the rebuilding
of order after major wars (New ed.). Princeton University Press.
Jain, J., Walia, N., Singh, S., & Jain, E. (2021). Mapping the field of behavioural biases:
A literature review using bibliometric analysis. Management Review Quarterly, 72(3),
823–855. https://doi.org/10.1007/S11301-021-00215-Y
Koseoglu, M. A., Rahimi, R., Okumus, F., & Liu, J. (2016). Bibliometric studies in tourism.
Annals of Tourism Research, 61, 180–198.
https://doi.org/10.1016/J.ANNALS.2016.10.006
Mazower, M. (2009). No enchanted palace: The end of empire and the ideological origins
of the United Nations. Princeton University Press.
Norris, M., & Oppenheim, C. (2007). Comparing alternatives to the Web of Science for
coverage of the social sciences’ literature. Journal of Informetrics, 1(2), 161–169.
https://doi.org/10.1016/J.JOI.2006.12.001
Purcell, M. (2003). Citizenship and the right to the global city: Reimagining the capitalist
world order. International Journal of Urban and Regional Research, 27(3), 564–590.
https://doi.org/10.1111/1468-2427.00467
Rajagopal, B. (2003). International law from below: Development, social movements and
third world resistance. Cambridge University Press.
Randhawa, K., Wilden, R., & Hohberger, J. (2016). A bibliometric review of open
innovation: Setting a research agenda. Journal of Product Innovation Management,
33(6), 750–772. https://doi.org/10.1111/JPIM.12312
Valenzuela-Fernandez, L., Merigó, J. M., Lichtenthal, J. D., & Nicolas, C. (2019). A
bibliometric analysis of the first 25 years of the Journal of Business-to-Business
Marketing. Journal of Business-to-Business Marketing, 26(1), 75–94.
https://doi.org/10.1080/1051712X.2019.1565142
Van Eck, N. J., Waltman, L., Dekker, R., & Van Den Berg, J. (2010). A comparison of two
techniques for bibliometric mapping: Multidimensional scaling and VOS. Journal of the
American Society for Information Science and Technology, 61(12), 2405–2416.
https://doi.org/10.1002/ASI.21421
Zainuldin, M. H., & Lui, T. K. (2022). A bibliometric analysis of CSR in the banking
industry: A decade study based on Scopus scientific mapping. International Journal of
Bank Marketing, 40(1), 1–26. https://doi.org/10.1108/IJBM-04-2020-0178
OBSERVARE
Universidade Autónoma de Lisboa
e-ISSN: 1647-7251
VOL. 16, Nº. 2
November 2025-April 2026
22
ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE AND INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS: NAVIGATING
OPPORTUNITIES AND CHALLENGES IN GLOBAL GOVERNANCE
SÉRGIO SILVA
D012196@umaia.pt
University Professor in the scientific areas related to Mathematics, Statistics and Computer
Science at University of Maia – UMAIA (Portugal). He holds a PhD in Intelligent and Adaptable
Software Systems from the University of Vigo and a Master's and Bachelor's degree in
Mathematics from the University of Minho. He has several publications that include book
chapters, articles and conferences. His research focus is the application of Artificial Intelligence
and Information and Communication Technologies in various areas of society, namely Education,
Law, Industry, Health and Web Marketing. In addition, he has extensive professional experience
in academic and business projects involving the transfer of scientific and technological
knowledge.
Abstract
Artificial Intelligence (AI) is transforming the field of International Relations (IR) by reshaping
diplomacy, security, and global governance. This article employs a descriptive-analytical
methodology, systematically reviewing and synthesizing existing literature to analyse AI’s
applications and implications in IR. It explores AI's potential to enhance diplomatic decision-
making through predictive analytics and automated negotiation systems, as well as its
applications in cybersecurity and military technologies. The article also highlights the ethical
and regulatory challenges posed by AI, such as algorithmic bias, weaponization, and
disparities in global access to AI technologies. While AI offers innovative solutions for global
challenges, such as climate change and public health, its integration into the global system
demands robust international frameworks and ethical safeguards. Recommendations include
promoting equitable AI access, fostering international cooperation, and leveraging AI for
peacebuilding and sustainable development. This article contributes to the growing discourse
on the intersection of AI and IR, emphasizing the need for responsible and inclusive global
governance.
Keywords
Artificial Intelligence, International Relations, Diplomacy, Cybersecurity, Governance.
Resumo
A Inteligência Artificial (IA) está a transformar o campo das Relações Internacionais (RI),
remodelando a diplomacia, a segurança e a governança global. Este artigo emprega uma
metodologia descritiva-analítica, revendo e sintetizando sistematicamente a literatura
existente para analisar as aplicações e implicações da IA nas RI. Explora o potencial da IA
para melhorar a tomada de decisões diplomáticas através de análises preditivas e sistemas
de negociação automatizados, bem como as suas aplicações em cibersegurança e tecnologias
militares. O artigo também destaca os desafios éticos e regulatórios impostos pela IA, como
viés algorítmico, militarização e disparidades no acesso global às tecnologias de IA. Embora
a IA ofereça soluções inovadoras para desafios globais, como alterações climáticas e saúde
pública, a sua integração no sistema global exige estruturas internacionais robustas e
JANUS.NET, e-journal of International Relations
e-ISSN: 1647-7251
VOL. 16, Nº. 2
November 2025-April 2026, pp. 22-39
Artificial Intelligence and International Relations:
Navigating Opportunities and Challenges in Global Governance
Sérgio Silva
23
salvaguardas éticas. As recomendações incluem a promoção do acesso equitativo à IA, o
fomento da cooperação internacional e o aproveitamento da IA para a construção da paz e o
desenvolvimento sustentável. Este artigo contribui para o crescente discurso sobre a
interseção entre IA e RI, enfatizando a necessidade de uma governança global responsável e
inclusiva.
Palavras-chave
Inteligência Artificial, Relações Internacionais, Diplomacia, Cibersegurança, Governança.
How to cite this article
Silva, Sérgio (2025). Artificial Intelligence and International Relations: Navigating Opportunities
and Challenges in Global Governance. Janus.net, e-journal of international relations. VOL. 16, Nº.
2, November 2025-April 2026, pp. 22-39. DOI https://doi.org/10.26619/1647-7251.16.2.2
Article submitted on 21st January 2025 and accepted for publication on 8th September
2025.
JANUS.NET, e-journal of International Relations
e-ISSN: 1647-7251
VOL. 16, Nº. 2
November 2025-April 2026, pp. 22-39
Artificial Intelligence and International Relations:
Navigating Opportunities and Challenges in Global Governance
Sérgio Silva
24
ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE AND INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS:
NAVIGATING OPPORTUNITIES AND CHALLENGES IN
GLOBAL GOVERNANCE
SÉRGIO SILVA
Introduction
The rapid advancement of Artificial Intelligence (AI) has brought about transformative
changes across various sectors, including healthcare, education, finance, and
governance. In the realm of International Relations (IR), AI is emerging as a notable
change, influencing how states interact, negotiate, and respond to global challenges. By
automating complex processes, analysing vast amounts of data, and providing actionable
insights, AI has the potential to enhance decision-making, improve diplomatic outcomes,
and address pressing global issues such as climate change and pandemics.
However, these advancements come with significant challenges. The integration of AI
into IR raises ethical dilemmas, such as algorithmic bias and the potential misuse of AI
in autonomous weapons and surveillance. Moreover, disparities in AI adoption and
technological capability among nations risk widening the global development gap, leading
to unequal power dynamics in the international system. As such, the use of AI in IR is
not merely a technological shift but a complex socio-political evolution that requires
careful governance and collaboration.
This article employs a descriptive-analytical methodology, systematically reviewing
existing literature and case studies. The ideas of other authors have been organized
thematically into domains such as diplomacy, security, digital public diplomacy,
cybersecurity, and global governance. This approach allows for a clear synthesis of
theoretical perspectives, empirical findings, and policy implications, while highlighting
emerging trends and challenges (Fatai et al., 2023, p. 2030; Galliano et al., 2024, pp.
36-37).
AI in Diplomacy and Decision-Making
AI has begun to revolutionize diplomacy by introducing tools that streamline decision-
making and enhance diplomatic outcomes. By processing vast datasets and providing
actionable insights, AI is enabling diplomats and policymakers to respond more
effectively to global challenges.
JANUS.NET, e-journal of International Relations
e-ISSN: 1647-7251
VOL. 16, Nº. 2
November 2025-April 2026, pp. 22-39
Artificial Intelligence and International Relations:
Navigating Opportunities and Challenges in Global Governance
Sérgio Silva
25
Predictive Analytics in Diplomacy
Predictive analytics is one of the most transformative applications of AI in diplomacy,
enabling states to anticipate global challenges and take pre-emptive actions. By
analysing large datasets, predictive models driven by AI identify trends and provide
actionable insights, helping policymakers make informed decisions in complex
international scenarios (Fatai et al., 2023, pp. 2032-2035).
Anticipating Crises and Conflicts
AI-powered predictive tools are particularly valuable in crisis anticipation and conflict
prevention. By integrating historical data, social media trends, economic indicators, and
real-time intelligence, these systems can identify early warning signs of potential crises.
For example, the European Union’s Early Warning System employs machine learning
algorithms to monitor risk factors such as political instability, migration patterns, and
economic shocks. This system enables timely interventions that mitigate the risk of
escalation and reduce the humanitarian and political costs of crises (Galliano et al., 2024,
pp. 40-42).
Enhancing Policy Formulation
Predictive analytics supports policymaking based on evidence by simulating the outcomes
of various strategies. Through scenario modelling, AI allows diplomats to explore
potential consequences of decisions in areas such as trade negotiations, conflict
resolution, and climate agreements. For instance, AI models can simulate the impact of
economic sanctions on a target nation’s stability, enabling policymakers to choose
strategies with the desired outcomes while minimizing unintended consequences (Bali &
Rapelanoro, 2021, p. 28).
Case Studies in Predictive Analytics
The United Nations Global Pulse initiative exemplifies the use of AI in humanitarian
diplomacy. By leveraging big data and predictive analytics, the program forecasts crises
such as food shortages, disease outbreaks, and refugee movements, facilitating
international aid coordination. Similarly, systems driven by AI have been used to identify
patterns of disinformation campaigns that threaten democratic processes, allowing states
to respond proactively (Manor, 2019, pp. 83-101).
Challenges and Ethical Considerations
Despite its advantages, predictive analytics in diplomacy faces significant challenges. The
quality of predictions depends heavily on the availability and accuracy of data. Incomplete
or biased datasets can lead to flawed forecasts, undermining decision-making processes.
Moreover, the use of predictive tools raises ethical concerns, such as privacy violations
JANUS.NET, e-journal of International Relations
e-ISSN: 1647-7251
VOL. 16, Nº. 2
November 2025-April 2026, pp. 22-39
Artificial Intelligence and International Relations:
Navigating Opportunities and Challenges in Global Governance
Sérgio Silva
26
and the potential misuse of predictive insights for coercive or manipulative purposes
(Helbing, 2015, p. 12).
Another crucial challenge concerns the quality and representativeness of the data on
which AI systems rely. In diplomacy and conflict prediction, biased or incomplete datasets
can distort forecasts, leading to misguided or unjust outcomes. For instance, when
predictive models rely predominantly on data from developed countries, they risk
neglecting the political and cultural specificities of the Global South, thereby reinforcing
existing inequalities in global governance (Montgomery, 2024, pp. 5–6). Helbing (2015,
p. 12) similarly warns that the unchecked use of incomplete data may amplify algorithmic
bias and erode trust in policy processes driven by AI. Ensuring transparency in data
provenance and promoting human oversight are thus critical to maintaining legitimacy
and accountability in decision-making assisted by AI.
Automated Negotiation Systems
Automated negotiation systems powered by AI are revolutionizing the way international
agreements and conflict resolutions are approached. These systems utilize sophisticated
algorithms to analyse data, evaluate stakeholders' preferences, and recommend optimal
solutions. By enhancing efficiency and reducing bias, platforms driven by AI are proving
to be valuable tools in diplomatic and multilateral negotiation processes (Katsh &
Rabinovich-Einy, 2017, pp. 50-52).
Enhancing Multilateral Negotiations
In multilateral negotiations, where diverse interests and complex trade-offs often
challenge consensus, AI systems provide a structured and efficient approach. Automated
negotiation platforms analyse data from all parties, model preferences, and simulate
possible outcomes to identify win-win scenarios. These tools have been particularly
effective in trade negotiations, climate agreements, and disputes sharing resource,
offering solutions that balance conflicting priorities (Bjola & Manor, 2024, pp. 1-6).
Data-Driven Decision Support
AI systems enhance human negotiators' capabilities by identifying patterns and
generating recommendations based on evidence. For instance, an AI system might
evaluate economic data, political alliances, and cultural dynamics to suggest negotiation
strategies tailored to specific contexts. These platforms reduce the time required for data
analysis, allowing diplomats to focus on high-level decision-making (Manor, 2019, pp.
83-101).
Case Studies in Automated Negotiation
One example of automated negotiation systems in action is the development of AI tools
for trade dispute resolution in the World Trade Organization (WTO). AI algorithms
evaluate historical data on trade conflicts, analyse the legal frameworks involved, and
JANUS.NET, e-journal of International Relations
e-ISSN: 1647-7251
VOL. 16, Nº. 2
November 2025-April 2026, pp. 22-39
Artificial Intelligence and International Relations:
Navigating Opportunities and Challenges in Global Governance
Sérgio Silva
27
propose resolutions that align with international laws and stakeholders' interests.
Similarly, in environmental diplomacy, tools driven by AI tools have been used to
facilitate agreements on carbon emissions by modelling the economic impact of various
policy options for participating nations (Manor, 2019, pp. 83-101).
Mitigating Bias and Enhancing Transparency
By relying on data and algorithmic processes, automated negotiation systems aim to
minimize the influence of human bias. These systems can enhance transparency in
negotiations by providing a clear rationale for suggested outcomes, helping to build trust
among parties. Additionally, they ensure that less influential states or parties have access
to objective data-driven support, levelling the playing field in global diplomacy (Uslu,
2024, pp. 160-162).
Digital Public Diplomacy
Digital public diplomacy, driven by AI, has become a vital tool for states seeking to shape
international narratives, engage with foreign publics, and influence global perceptions.
By leveraging analytics and communication platforms driven by AI, governments can
monitor sentiment, craft targeted messages, and respond dynamically to global issues in
real time (Manor, 2019, pp. 83-101).
Sentiment Analysis and Public Opinion Monitoring
Tools powered by AI enable governments to analyse vast volumes of data from social
media, news platforms, and online forums. Sentiment analysis algorithms assess public
opinion, identifying trends, grievances, and areas of interest across diverse populations.
For instance, during major international events or crises, governments can use AI to
gauge global reactions and adapt their diplomatic messaging accordingly (Manor, 2019,
pp. 55-56). These insights allow diplomats to align their strategies with public sentiment,
fostering more effective engagement with international audiences.
Real-Time Engagement
AI enhances real-time engagement through chatbots and automated communication
systems. These tools can respond promptly to public inquiries about policies, providing
accurate and consistent information. For example, virtual assistants deployed by foreign
ministries driven by AI can interact with citizens and foreigners alike, clarifying visa
regulations, travel advisories, or foreign policy initiatives. This accessibility builds trust
and transparency, enhancing a state's image on the global stage (Kosack & Fung, 2014,
pp. 67-69).
JANUS.NET, e-journal of International Relations
e-ISSN: 1647-7251
VOL. 16, Nº. 2
November 2025-April 2026, pp. 22-39
Artificial Intelligence and International Relations:
Navigating Opportunities and Challenges in Global Governance
Sérgio Silva
28
Targeted Messaging and Influence Campaigns
Digital public diplomacy relies on AI's ability to segment audiences and tailor messages
to specific demographics. By analysing behavioural patterns, AI tools help governments
create personalized campaigns that resonate with target audiences. For example, in
promoting climate policies or human rights initiatives, AI algorithms can identify
influential social media users and craft messages that align with their interests and
values. This precision amplifies the impact of diplomatic efforts, ensuring messages reach
the right audiences at the right time (Bjola & Manor, 2024, pp. 1-6).
Case Studies in Digital Public Diplomacy
The use of AI in public diplomacy is exemplified by the United Kingdom’s Foreign,
Commonwealth & Development Office, which employs AI tools to track online discourse
and measure the effectiveness of its campaigns. Similarly, the U.S. Department of State
has utilized AI to counter disinformation campaigns by identifying false narratives and
promoting verified information through digital channels (Bontridder & Poullet, 2021, pp.
1-21).
AI in Security and Conflict
AI is increasingly playing a pivotal role in enhancing national and global security, as well
as in addressing complex conflict scenarios. AI's capabilities in data analysis, predictive
modelling, and automation are being harnessed to improve both defensive and offensive
strategies in security and conflict management. However, its use also raises significant
ethical concerns and risks, particularly regarding autonomy, accountability, and the
potential for misuse in warfare (Chauhan, 2022, pp. 17-24).
AI in Military Strategy and Defense
AI is transforming military strategies by enabling faster, more accurate decision-making
and enhancing operational effectiveness. Advanced AI systems are now being integrated
into defense systems, from autonomous drones to cyber defense operations.
Autonomous vehicles and drones equipped with AI can perform surveillance,
reconnaissance, and even targeted strikes without direct human intervention, offering
enhanced efficiency and reduced human risk in conflict zones (Négyesi, 2024, pp. 475-
476).
For example, the United States and China have heavily invested in defense technologies
driven by AI, including autonomous weapons systems and surveillance tools powered by
AI. These systems can process large datasets to detect potential threats, such as troop
movements or weapon deployments, faster than human analysts, providing significant
strategic advantages (Chauhan, 2022, pp. 17-24).
JANUS.NET, e-journal of International Relations
e-ISSN: 1647-7251
VOL. 16, Nº. 2
November 2025-April 2026, pp. 22-39
Artificial Intelligence and International Relations:
Navigating Opportunities and Challenges in Global Governance
Sérgio Silva
29
AI in Conflict Prediction and Early Warning Systems
AI is also being deployed to predict and prevent conflicts before they escalate. Machine
learning algorithms can analyse historical data, geopolitical patterns, and social media
activity to detect early signs of unrest or potential violence. This predictive capability
allows international organizations, such as the United Nations (UN), to intervene before
a conflict fully materializes, mitigating the loss of life and economic disruption
(Henningsen, 2023, pp. 141-164).
For example, AI systems are used in early warning systems that monitor for social unrest,
such as protests, civil wars, or political instability. These systems analyse data from
various sources, including news reports, social media, and economic indicators, to predict
where conflicts might arise. The United Nations' use of AI to monitor refugee flows or
predict conflict hotspots in Africa is one example of this approach in action. These
predictive tools enable timely interventions and the provision of humanitarian assistance
before the situation deteriorates (Henningsen, 2023, pp. 141-164).
AI in Cybersecurity and Cyber Warfare
AI is increasingly central to the field of cybersecurity, where it is used to detect and
respond to cyber threats in real-time. With the growing threat of cyberattacks on critical
infrastructure, AI systems are used to identify potential vulnerabilities in computer
networks, prevent hacking attempts, and protect sensitive information. These systems
can autonomously monitor network traffic, detect unusual behaviour, and deploy
defensive measures more quickly than human analysts.
In the context of cyber warfare, AI is also used to launch sophisticated cyberattacks.
Malware driven by AI can adapt and evolve to bypass security measures, making it
difficult for traditional defense to counter such threats. The use of AI in offensive cyber
capabilities, such as launching automated cyberattacks on enemy infrastructure, raises
concerns about the escalation of conflicts in the digital realm.
For instance, the use of AI in the 2020 cyberattacks on major governmental agencies,
such as the SolarWinds attack, demonstrates the increasing sophistication of cyber
warfare tactics powered by AI. The attack, attributed to hackers backed by Russian,
involved the use of AI to infiltrate supply chains and government networks, highlighting
the vulnerabilities that AI can both protect and exploit (Jasper, 2022, pp. 5-6).
AI and Global Governance
AI is increasingly influencing the landscape of global governance, offering new tools for
managing complex transnational issues such as climate change, global health, migration,
and international trade. However, while AI has the potential to enhance global
cooperation, it also introduces significant challenges regarding regulation, ethics, and the
distribution of power on the global stage. Governments, international organizations, and
non-state actors are working together to shape the future of AI governance to ensure
that its benefits are equitably distributed, while minimizing risks and ensuring human
rights protections.
JANUS.NET, e-journal of International Relations
e-ISSN: 1647-7251
VOL. 16, Nº. 2
November 2025-April 2026, pp. 22-39
Artificial Intelligence and International Relations:
Navigating Opportunities and Challenges in Global Governance
Sérgio Silva
30
AI in Global Policy Coordination
AI has the capacity to transform international policy coordination by facilitating the
collection, analysis, and sharing of data across borders. Tools powered by AI can process
vast amounts of data in real-time, helping governments and international organizations
respond more quickly to global challenges such as pandemics, natural disasters, and
environmental threats.
For example, climate models driven by AI are being used to predict the impact of climate
change across different regions, guiding international efforts to mitigate its effects. These
models allow the international community to better understand and anticipate the long-
term consequences of environmental changes, leading to more informed negotiations in
climate summits like the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change
(UNFCCC) (Pereira & Viola, 2020, pp. 15-16). Similarly, AI tools have been used in health
governance to track and predict the spread of infectious diseases, facilitating coordinated
global responses to pandemics such as COVID-19 (Kaur et al., 2021, pp. 40523-40525).
By analysing data from various countries, AI systems can offer recommendations for
targeted interventions and resource allocation, improving the effectiveness of global
health governance.
AI and Multilateral Institutions
International organizations like the United Nations (UN), World Trade Organization
(WTO), and World Health Organization (WHO) are exploring the use of AI to improve
their operations, increase transparency, and enhance decision-making. AI can be used
to streamline administrative processes, support decision-making driven by AI, and
facilitate the monitoring of international agreements. The UN, for example, has invested
in AI projects to strengthen peacekeeping and humanitarian response. AI is employed to
monitor conflict zones, predict refugee flows, and assess the impact of sanctions or peace
agreements. AI tools have also been used by the UN to combat misinformation and
disinformation, analysing social media platforms to detect the spread of harmful
narratives that could undermine peace efforts or create instability (Kertysova, 2018, pp.
60-62).
Similarly, AI can enhance global trade governance by helping institutions like the WTO
predict market trends and evaluate trade disputes. By automating routine processes and
offering advanced analysis, AI helps multilateral organizations become more efficient and
adaptive in responding to fast-changing global challenges (Bjola & Manor, 2024, pp. 1-
6).
AI in International Law and Regulation
The rise of AI poses new questions for international law, particularly in the areas of
regulation, accountability, and jurisdiction. One of the key challenges for global
governance is the establishment of international norms and rules for the development
and deployment of AI technologies. Unlike traditional international treaties, AI
JANUS.NET, e-journal of International Relations
e-ISSN: 1647-7251
VOL. 16, Nº. 2
November 2025-April 2026, pp. 22-39
Artificial Intelligence and International Relations:
Navigating Opportunities and Challenges in Global Governance
Sérgio Silva
31
governance requires flexible frameworks that can keep pace with rapid technological
advancements.
In this context, international collaboration is critical to creating consistent, enforceable
standards for AI deployment. The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and
Development (OECD) and the European Union (EU) have already taken steps toward
establishing guidelines and regulations for AI, focusing on areas such as data privacy,
algorithmic transparency, and ethical AI use. For example, the EU’s Artificial Intelligence
Act, proposed in 2021, aims to regulate AI systems with elevated risk by ensuring that
they are transparent, accountable, and respectful of fundamental rights (Neuwirth, 2022,
pp. 20-25).
While initiatives such as the EU Artificial Intelligence Act represent important progress
toward regulating systems with elevated risk, they also expose the limits of current
governance approaches. Neuwirth (2022, pp. 20–25) argues that although the Act
prioritizes transparency and accountability, enforcement mechanisms remain fragmented
and uneven across jurisdictions. Khalaileh (2023, pp. 25–27) stresses that the fast-paced
nature of AI innovation challenges the ability of international law to adapt effectively. If
regulatory frameworks remain fragmented, the result may be competing and
incompatible approaches to AI governance, undermining efforts to build coherent
international standards.
AI, Sovereignty, and Global Power Dynamics
AI also brings questions of sovereignty and power dynamics to the forefront of global
governance discussions. So, countries race to develop cutting-edge AI technologies, the
ability to control and regulate AI becomes a key source of geopolitical influence. Nations
with advanced AI capabilities may gain economic, military, and diplomatic leverage,
which could alter existing power dynamics in global governance.
For instance, the competition between the United States and China in AI development is
not just a matter of technological innovation but also reflects broader geopolitical
tensions. The control over AI technologies can affect a country’s influence in international
organizations, its ability to shape global norms, and its strategic interests in areas like
cybersecurity and trade. As AI becomes a critical component of economic and military
power, questions arise about how AI will impact state sovereignty, international law, and
global cooperation (Grochmalski, 2020, pp. 7-9).
The introduction of AI in global governance requires balancing the interests of powerful
states with the need for cooperation, inclusivity, and fairness. There must be mechanisms
in place to ensure that AI is used to foster collaboration and collective action, rather than
to reinforce inequality or exacerbate global tensions.
The Future of AI in Global Governance
Looking ahead, the integration of AI into global governance will likely continue to expand,
creating both opportunities and challenges for the international community. AI has the
potential to enhance cooperation on pressing global issues, including climate change,
JANUS.NET, e-journal of International Relations
e-ISSN: 1647-7251
VOL. 16, Nº. 2
November 2025-April 2026, pp. 22-39
Artificial Intelligence and International Relations:
Navigating Opportunities and Challenges in Global Governance
Sérgio Silva
32
health crises, and conflict prevention. However, its use also requires careful regulation
and ethical oversight to prevent abuses and ensure equitable benefits for all.
International governance frameworks must evolve to address the unique challenges
posed by AI. This will involve global dialogue, collaboration between governments,
international organizations, the private sector, and civil society, as well as the
development of robust legal and ethical standards. AI should not only be seen as a tool
for enhancing governance but as an integral part of shaping the future of global
cooperation in the 21st century (Imamguluyev, 2024, pp. 2938-2940).
Risks and Ethical Implications
While AI offers numerous benefits in various domains of global governance, security, and
diplomacy, its application also carries significant risks and ethical dilemmas. The advent
of AI technologies brings forth challenges related to weaponization, misinformation,
inequality, and the erosion of privacy. These risks require careful regulation, ethical
oversight, and international cooperation to ensure that AI is used responsibly and in ways
that benefit all of humanity, rather than exacerbating existing global divides or
threatening global peace and stability (Howard, Woolley, & Calo, 2018, pp. 85-87;
Sedova et al., 2021, pp. 7-9).
Weaponization and Misinformation
AI’s ability to rapidly process and generate content is a double-edged sword, particularly
when it comes to weaponizing information and manipulating public perception.
Technologies driven by AI, including bots, deepfakes, and automated content generation,
can be used to spread misinformation and disinformation at an unprecedented scale. This
poses severe risks to democracy, international relations, and social cohesion.
Bots generated by AI bots have been deployed to interfere in political processes,
influencing elections, spreading propaganda, and deepening societal divides. For
instance, AI bots were used in the 2016 U.S. election to amplify divisive narratives and
influence public opinion (Howard, Woolley, & Calo, 2018, pp. 88-90). These campaigns
are often designed to create polarization, sow distrust in democratic institutions, and
undermine the integrity of electoral systems.
The manipulation of information through AI also extends to the creation of deepfake
videos, which can be used to spread false narratives, discredit political figures, or incite
violence. The ability to produce convincing, yet entirely fabricated, content with minimal
resources presents a major challenge to verifying the truth and preventing the spread of
harmful misinformation on a global scale.
In the context of international relations, misinformation campaigns driven by AI can be
used to destabilize governments, interfere with diplomatic efforts, and even incite
conflicts between states (Sedova et al., 2021, pp. 10-12). The weaponization of AI in the
form of digital manipulation could become an increasingly common tactic in cyber
warfare, posing a significant challenge to global security.
JANUS.NET, e-journal of International Relations
e-ISSN: 1647-7251
VOL. 16, Nº. 2
November 2025-April 2026, pp. 22-39
Artificial Intelligence and International Relations:
Navigating Opportunities and Challenges in Global Governance
Sérgio Silva
33
To address these threats, countries and international organizations must collaborate on
developing frameworks to regulate the use of AI in information warfare, establish clear
accountability for those who exploit AI for malicious purposes, and invest in technologies
to detect and counteract misinformation generated by AI.
Beyond the general threats of bots and deepfakes, AI introduces more insidious risks of
manipulation through personalized disinformation campaigns. Unlike traditional
propaganda, systems driven by AI can tailor narratives to specific demographics,
exploiting cultural and emotional triggers to maximize impact. For example, Manor
(2019, pp. 83–101) notes that sentiment analysis powered by AI enables actors to
identify societal grievances and then deploy targeted messages to exacerbate
polarization. Bontridder and Poullet (2021, pp. 1–21) similarly highlight how automated
influence operations undermine democratic institutions and destabilize international
relations. These dynamics illustrate how disinformation campaigns powered by AI pose
a direct challenge not only to national security but also to international cooperation and
trust.
Inequalities in AI Access
While AI offers immense potential for addressing global challenges, there is a growing
concern over the disparities in access to AI technologies between developed and
developing countries. The digital divide is widening as wealthy nations and multinational
corporations dominate the development and deployment of AI, leaving low-income
countries with limited access to these transformative technologies. This inequality is
creating further imbalances in global power and exacerbating existing development
challenges.
In many developing nations, there are significant barriers to the adoption of AI, including
limited infrastructure, lack of access to quality data, insufficient technical expertise, and
inadequate financial resources. This creates a situation where only a few nations,
particularly those in the Global North, can harness the full potential of AI, while the rest
are left behind.
The unequal distribution of AI technologies risks perpetuating the existing global power
dynamics, where technologically advanced nations can leverage AI for economic growth,
military superiority, and political influence. In contrast, developing countries may be left
with limited access to AI's benefits, further deepening inequalities in areas such as
healthcare, education, and economic development (Montgomery, 2024, pp. 5-6).
For example, solutions in healthcare powered by AI, such as diagnostic tools and
personalized medicine, could improve patient outcomes and reduce health disparities in
developed countries. However, without proper infrastructure and access to these
technologies, many people in low-income regions will be unable to benefit from these
advancements. Similarly, AI’s potential to drive economic growth through automation
and data analysis may leave developing countries vulnerable to job displacement and
economic stagnation if they are unable to keep up with technological innovation.
Addressing these disparities requires international cooperation, capacity-building
initiatives, and the establishment of policies that promote the equitable distribution of AI
JANUS.NET, e-journal of International Relations
e-ISSN: 1647-7251
VOL. 16, Nº. 2
November 2025-April 2026, pp. 22-39
Artificial Intelligence and International Relations:
Navigating Opportunities and Challenges in Global Governance
Sérgio Silva
34
technologies. The United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization
(UNESCO) has emphasized the need for global cooperation to build the necessary
infrastructure, support education and skill development, and ensure that AI technologies
are accessible to all countries, regardless of their economic status (UNESCO, 2024).
One potential solution is the creation of an international framework that ensures fair
access to AI, fosters research collaboration between countries, and provides support for
developing countries to build the necessary infrastructure to take advantage of AI
technologies. This could include measures such as technology transfer, programs for
building capacity, and equitable funding for AI research and development in the Global
South.
Policy Recommendations
As AI continues to reshape global governance, international relations, and security, it is
crucial to develop policies that maximize the benefits of AI while mitigating its risks. AI’s
potential to enhance global cooperation and address pressing challenges, such as climate
change, public health, and conflict resolution, is immense. However, its impact can be
equally harmful if not properly regulated. In this section, several policy recommendations
are outlined to guide the development and deployment of AI in a way that ensures it
serves humanity’s best interests and fosters equitable and ethical global practices.
Establishing International Frameworks
Creating a unified framework for AI governance is essential to ensure the responsible
development and use of AI technologies. While AI innovation is rapidly advancing, the
legal and regulatory structures that govern its use remain fragmented, with different
countries establishing their own standards, often without coordinated international
oversight. This has created a scenario in which AI can be developed and deployed without
consistent ethical, legal, or social considerations across borders.
The UN or other international bodies should take the lead in creating global frameworks
for AI governance. These frameworks should include binding agreements on AI safety,
ethical standards, data privacy, transparency, and accountability, ensuring that AI
systems are used responsibly and equitably (UNESCO, 2024). A global treaty on AI could
set guidelines for ensuring that AI development prioritizes human rights, social justice,
and environmental sustainability.
The proposed framework should also focus on promoting inclusivity, ensuring that
developing countries have a voice in the governance process and are not left behind in
the AI revolution. International cooperation on AI could foster trust and create a
collaborative environment to address transnational challenges such as cybersecurity,
misinformation, and the ethical implications of AI in warfare (UNESCO, 2024).
JANUS.NET, e-journal of International Relations
e-ISSN: 1647-7251
VOL. 16, Nº. 2
November 2025-April 2026, pp. 22-39
Artificial Intelligence and International Relations:
Navigating Opportunities and Challenges in Global Governance
Sérgio Silva
35
Enhancing Transparency and Accountability
One of the key challenges with AI systems, particularly those in critical domains such as
defense, healthcare, and diplomacy, is the opacity of decision-making processes. Many
AI models are complex and operate as "black-box" systems, where even their developers
may struggle to explain how the algorithms arrive at decisions. This lack of transparency
is particularly concerning when AI systems are used in high-stakes areas, such as military
operations, law enforcement, and foreign policy decision-making.
To address these concerns, governments should mandate the use of explainable AI (XAI)
systems in these domains. XAI refers to AI systems designed to be transparent and
interpretable, so their actions can be understood and explained to non-expert users
(Khalaileh, 2023, pp. 25-27). By adopting XAI, governments can ensure that AI systems
operate in ways that are understandable, justifiable, and accountable. This will help
mitigate the risks of unintended consequences, bias, and algorithmic errors, while
fostering trust among the public and international stakeholders.
For example, in the defense sector, XAI can help ensure that military AI systems, such
as autonomous weapons or intelligence gathering systems, operate within ethical and
legal frameworks. Similarly, in diplomacy, XAI could help explain the reasoning behind
foreign policy decisions made with the assistance of AI, ensuring that they are
transparent and aligned with international law and norms (Khalaileh, 2023, pp. 28-30).
Promoting Capacity Building in Developing Nations
The global digital divide poses a significant challenge to the equitable adoption of AI
technologies. While developed countries have access to advanced AI tools and
infrastructure, many developing nations lack the resources, technical expertise, and
infrastructure to integrate AI into their governance and economic systems. This inequality
risks further marginalizing these nations, limiting their ability to benefit from AI’s
potential in areas like healthcare, education, and economic development.
To address this gap, developed countries should prioritize technical and financial
assistance to help developing nations integrate AI technologies. Initiatives like the Global
Partnership on Artificial Intelligence (GPAI), which aims to support AI development
through international collaboration and capacity building, are a step in the right direction.
GPAI provides a platform for countries to collaborate on AI policy, ethics, and research,
while also ensuring that developing nations have the resources and support, they need
to implement AI solutions (Jariwala, 2024, pp. 1-7).
Efforts on building capacity should focus on developing local AI expertise, building the
necessary digital infrastructure, and ensuring access to the data and tools required for
successful AI adoption. Furthermore, international cooperation can help create training
programs, digital literacy initiatives, and collaborative research projects that enable
developing countries to leapfrog technological barriers and fully participate in the global
AI ecosystem (Jariwala, 2024, pp. 1-7).
JANUS.NET, e-journal of International Relations
e-ISSN: 1647-7251
VOL. 16, Nº. 2
November 2025-April 2026, pp. 22-39
Artificial Intelligence and International Relations:
Navigating Opportunities and Challenges in Global Governance
Sérgio Silva
36
Leveraging AI for Peacebuilding
AI’s potential to prevent conflict, promote stability, and contribute to peacebuilding
efforts should be actively pursued by international organizations and governments. AI
can be a powerful tool for early warning systems, conflict prevention, and post-conflict
reconstruction, especially when integrated with existing peacekeeping operations.
AI can be leveraged for conflict prevention by analysing large datasets from social media,
news outlets, and government reports to detect early warning signs of political instability,
ethnic tensions, or humanitarian crises. Predictive models powered by AI can help
diplomats and peacekeepers act pre-emptively to defuse conflicts before they escalate.
For example, AI could help identify patterns of violence in conflict-prone regions, enabling
international organizations like the UN to deploy peacekeeping forces or humanitarian
aid swiftly.
In addition, AI technologies can contribute to conflict resolution by facilitating dialogue
between opposing parties, analysing negotiation dynamics, and suggesting potential
compromise solutions. Automated negotiation platforms, powered by AI, can analyse the
preferences and positions of different stakeholders in peace negotiations, providing
diplomats with insights on how to bridge divides and reach a mutually agreeable solution
(Carneiro, Novais, & Neves, 2014, pp. 170-172).
Finally, AI can assist in post-conflict reconstruction by helping governments and
international agencies to rebuild infrastructure, improve governance, and promote social
cohesion. Tools driven by AI can optimize resource allocation, provide insights driven by
data for rebuilding efforts, and assess the effectiveness of various peacebuilding
programs (Carneiro, Novais, & Neves, 2014, pp. 173-175).
Conclusion
AI is undeniably a transformative force in the field of International Relations, bringing
new opportunities and challenges in areas such as diplomacy, security, and governance.
The potential for AI to enhance decision-making, improve conflict resolution, and
promote effective governance is vast. Predictive analytics, automated negotiation
systems, and digital diplomacy are just a few examples of how AI can significantly
reshape the way states interact and manage global affairs.
However, as AI technologies advance, their integration into the global order must be
approached with caution. Ethical concerns, such as the risk of weaponization,
misinformation, bias, and the widening digital divide, demand careful consideration.
These challenges highlight the need for robust regulatory frameworks that ensure AI is
developed and applied in ways that are transparent, equitable, and aligned with human
rights.
Furthermore, inclusivity is paramount. Wealthier nations or corporations should not
dominate the global AI landscape. Instead, international cooperation must be
emphasized, ensuring that developing countries have access to AI technologies and the
resources needed to integrate them into their own governance structures.
JANUS.NET, e-journal of International Relations
e-ISSN: 1647-7251
VOL. 16, Nº. 2
November 2025-April 2026, pp. 22-39
Artificial Intelligence and International Relations:
Navigating Opportunities and Challenges in Global Governance
Sérgio Silva
37
Interpreting AI through established theories of international relations also enriches our
understanding of its role in global politics. From a realist perspective, the competition
between the United States and China over AI development illustrates how technological
leadership translates into geopolitical power. A liberal lens, by contrast, highlights the
potential of international organizations such as the UN, WTO, and UNESCO to foster
cooperation and collective governance of AI. Constructivist approaches, meanwhile, draw
attention to how AI technologies shape norms, perceptions, and identities in diplomacy
and global governance. These perspectives confirm that AI is not merely a technological
tool but also a political phenomenon that both reflects and reshapes power, cooperation,
and legitimacy in the international system.
By fostering collaboration between nations, international organizations, and the private
sector, and by establishing clear and inclusive policies, states can unlock AI's full potential
to promote peace, prosperity, and global stability. As AI continues to evolve, it will
undoubtedly shape the future of international relations. With careful oversight and a
commitment to ethical principles, AI can be a powerful tool for building a more just and
harmonious world.
References
Bali, M., & Rapelanoro, N. (2021). How to simulate international economic sanctions: A
multipurpose index modelling illustrated with EU sanctions against Russia. International
Economics, 168, 25-39. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.inteco.2021.06.004
Bjola, C., & Manor, I. (2024). Digital diplomacy in the age of technological acceleration:
three impact scenarios of generative artificial intelligence. Place Branding and Public
Diplomacy, 1-6. https://doi.org/10.1057/s41254-023-00323-4
Bontridder, N., & Poullet, Y. (2021). The role of artificial intelligence in disinformation.
Data & Policy, 3, e32. https://doi.org/10.1017/dap.2021.20
Carneiro, D., Novais, P., & Neves, J. (2014). The Conflict Resolution Process. Conflict
Resolution and Its Context, 163-186. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-06239-6_8
Chauhan, S. (2022). Artificial Intelligence In The Military: An Overview Of The
Capabilities, Applications, And Challenges. Journal of Survey in Fisheries Sciences,
9(2),17-24. https://doi.org/10.53555/sfs.v9i2.2911
European Commission: Joint Research Centre, Galliano, D., Bitussi, A., Caravaggi, I., De
Girolamo, L., Destro, D., Duta, A., Giustolisi, L., Lentini, A., Mastronunzio, M., Paris, S.,
Proietti, C., Salvitti, V., Santini, M., & Spagnolo, L. (2024). Artificial intelligence applied
to disasters and crises management, Publications Office of the European Union.
https://data.europa.eu/doi/10.2760/0323818
Grochmalski, P. (2020). US-China rivalry for strategic domination in the area of artificial
intelligence and the new AI geopolitics. Kwartalnik “Bellona,” 701(2), 5-25.
https://doi.org/10.5604/01.3001.0014.3837
Helbing, D. (2015). Societal, Economic, Ethical and Legal Challenges of the Digital
Revolution: From Big Data to Deep Learning, Artificial Intelligence, and Manipulative
Technologies. SSRN Electronic Journal. https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2594352
JANUS.NET, e-journal of International Relations
e-ISSN: 1647-7251
VOL. 16, Nº. 2
November 2025-April 2026, pp. 22-39
Artificial Intelligence and International Relations:
Navigating Opportunities and Challenges in Global Governance
Sérgio Silva
38
Henningsen, G. (2023). Big Data for the Prediction of Forced Displacement. International
Migration Review, 59(1), 141-164. https://doi.org/10.1177/01979183231195296
Howard, P. N., Woolley, S., & Calo, R. (2018). Algorithms, bots, and political
communication in the US 2016 election: The challenge of automated political
communication for election law and administration. Journal of Information Technology
& Politics, 15(2), 81-93. https://doi.org/10.1080/19331681.2018.1448735
Imamguluyev, R. (2024). Artificial Intelligence 2050: Predictions, Challenges, and
Innovations. International Journal of Research Publication and Reviews, 5(9), 2933-
2941. https://doi.org/10.55248/gengpi.5.0924.2663
Jariwala, M. (2024). A Comparative Analysis of the EU AI Act and the Colorado AI Act:
Regulatory Approaches to Artificial Intelligence Governance. International Journal of
Computer Applications, 186(38), 1-7. https://doi.org/10.5120/ijca2024923954
JASPER, S. (2022). Russian Cyber Operations. https://doi.org/10.2307/j.ctv2k88t3d
Katsh, E., & Rabinovich-Einy, O. (2017). Digital Justice.
https://doi.org/10.1093/acprof:oso/9780190464585.001.0001
Kaur, I., Behl, T., Aleya, L., Rahman, H., Kumar, A., Arora, S., & Bulbul, I. J. (2021).
Artificial intelligence as a fundamental tool in management of infectious diseases and its
current implementation in COVID-19 pandemic. Environmental Science and Pollution
Research, 28(30), 40515-40532. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-021-13823-8
Kertysova, K. (2018). Artificial Intelligence and Disinformation. Security and Human
Rights, 29(1-4), 55-81. https://doi.org/10.1163/18750230-02901005
Khalaileh, Y. (2023). Accommodating Artificial Intelligence in International Law: An
Overview and New Frontier. Journal of Human Security, 19(1), 22-31.
https://doi.org/10.12924/johs2023.19010022
Kosack, S., & Fung, A. (2014). Does Transparency Improve Governance? Annual Review
of Political Science, 17(1), 65-87. https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-polisci-032210-
144356
Lateef Olawale Fatai, Olayinka Farouk Salau, Lawrencia Yaa Kakra Gaisie, & Ken Muchira.
(2023). Leveraging data analytics to optimize government interventions for
homelessness, substance abuse, and mental health: A case study in evidence-based
policy design. World Journal of Advanced Research and Reviews, 20(3), 2025-2047.
https://doi.org/10.30574/wjarr.2023.20.3.2218
Manor, I. (2019). Public Diplomacy in the Digital Age. Hague Journal of Diplomacy, 14(1-
2), 83-101. https://doi.org/10.1163/1871191X-14011032
Montgomery, R. M. (2024). The Rise of Inequality and Artificial Intelligence: Impacts,
Challenges, and Opportunities in a Globalized Economy.
https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.4964094
Négyesi, I. (2024). The Potential of Cognitive Artificial Intelligence for Mission-Oriented
Military Decision-Making. Land Forces Academy Review, 29(4), 473-480.
https://doi.org/10.2478/raft-2024-0049
JANUS.NET, e-journal of International Relations
e-ISSN: 1647-7251
VOL. 16, Nº. 2
November 2025-April 2026, pp. 22-39
Artificial Intelligence and International Relations:
Navigating Opportunities and Challenges in Global Governance
Sérgio Silva
39
Neuwirth, R. J. (2022). The European Union’s proposed Artificial Intelligence Act (AIA).
The EU Artificial Intelligence Act, 9-41. https://doi.org/10.4324/9781003319436-2
Pereira, J. C., & Viola, E. (2020). Climate Multilateralism Within the United Nations
Framework Convention on Climate Change. Oxford Research Encyclopedia of Climate
Science. https://doi.org/10.1093/acrefore/9780190228620.013.639
Sedova, K., McNeill, C., Johnson, A., Joshi, A., & Wulkan, I. (2021). AI and the Future of
Disinformation Campaigns: Part 1: The RICHDATA Framework. Center for Security and
Emerging Technology. https://doi.org/10.51593/2021ca005
UNESCO. (2024). Retrieved from https://www.unesco.org
Uslu, S. (2024). Data-Informed Diplomacy: Adapting to the Digital Age in International
Relations and Implementation in the OSCE Region. Digital Diplomacy in the OSCE Region,
155-166. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-50966-7_14
OBSERVARE
Universidade Autónoma de Lisboa
e-ISSN: 1647-7251
VOL. 16, Nº. 2
November 2025-April 2026
40
DIGITAL DIVIDE: ANALYSING THE IMPACT OF UNEQUAL ACCESS TO
TECHNOLOGY ON SOCIAL MOBILITY
INAMDAR TIPUSULTAN ALARSAHEB
sultan7inamdar@gmail.com
He has been a full-time faculty member at JSPM University, Pune (India). In addition to his
primary role, he has been serving as a visiting faculty at the School of International Studies,
FLAME University. He has also delivered guest lectures at CHRIST University for the UPSC
students. Prof. Tipusultan is currently pursuing a Ph.D. in International Relations, further
advancing his expertise and academic credentials in the field. Prof. Tipusultan has also been
appointed as a subject expert to deliver guest lectures on National Television under the
SWAYAMPRABHA scheme, an initiative by the Government of India under the Ministry of
Education. His contributions to academia include authoring four books and publishing eight
research articles in international journals. Furthermore, he has contributed chapters in three
SCOPUS-indexed books and has completed a research project. https://orcid.org/0009-0001-
1265-4648
Abstract
The digital divide differentiated by inequalities in access, skills, and social usage of technology
has become a significant obstacle towards social mobility, further compounding the current
disparities in economic, social, and education realms. The aim of this research is to explain
how the lacking digital resources are more burdensome for the impoverished population,
denying them opportunities to elevate their economic status. The exploration addresses the
components of the digital divide, namely: access to devices, technology skills, and the actual
use of the equipment, showing at the same time how far-reaching impact these relationships
have on education, employment, and economic development. Students from underdeveloped
regions are not able to gain entry in online platforms that give digital learning materials,
resulting in a greater gap in the level of education. Likewise, low literacy levels in regard to
use of modern technology as well as discrimination against those who do not have such
technology discourages people from engaging in the new economy thereby creating disparities
in employment and income. Overall, the digital divide worsens the existing inequalities of
developed and developing countries. While developed countries enjoy the advantages of well-
advanced digital systems, most developing countries are still even battling to login with the
internet denying them an opportunity to be active players in the global innovational digital
economy. To illustrate these divisions and their significance for inequality at global level, case
studies and empirical data are used. The paper ends with a call for change stating local
governments, the business community and international institutions should collaborate
towards eliminating the digital divide. This paper highlights the importance of addressing
digital inequities in order to achieve a more inclusive digital future.
Keywords
Digital Divide, Social Mobility, Digital Inequalities, Technology Access, Digital Literacy.
JANUS.NET, e-journal of International Relations
e-ISSN: 1647-7251
VOL. 16, Nº. 2
November 2025-April 2026, pp. 40-56
Digital Divide: Analysing the Impact of Unequal Access to Technology on Social Mobility
Inamdar Tipusultan Alarsaheb
41
Resumo
A clivagem digital, diferenciada pelas desigualdades no acesso, nas competências e na
utilização social da tecnologia, tornou-se um obstáculo significativo à mobilidade social,
agravando ainda mais as disparidades atuais nos domínios económico, social e educativo. O
objetivo desta investigação é explicar como a falta de recursos digitais é mais onerosa para a
população empobrecida, negando-lhe oportunidades de melhorar a sua situação económica.
A exploração aborda os componentes da exclusão digital, nomeadamente: acesso a
dispositivos, competências tecnológicas e utilização efetiva do equipamento, mostrando ao
mesmo tempo o impacto de longo alcance que estas relações têm na educação, no emprego
e no desenvolvimento económico. Os estudantes de regiões subdesenvolvidas não conseguem
aceder às plataformas online que disponibilizam materiais de aprendizagem digital, resultando
numa maior disparidade no nível de educação. Da mesma forma, os baixos níveis de literacia
no que diz respeito à utilização da tecnologia moderna, bem como a discriminação contra
aqueles que não têm acesso a essa tecnologia, desencorajam as pessoas de se envolverem
na nova economia, criando assim disparidades no emprego e no rendimento. Em geral, a
exclusão digital agrava as desigualdades existentes entre países desenvolvidos e em
desenvolvimento. Enquanto os países desenvolvidos desfrutam das vantagens de sistemas
digitais bem avançados, a maioria dos países em desenvolvimento ainda luta para se conectar
à Internet, negando-lhes a oportunidade de serem participantes ativos na economia digital
inovadora global. Para ilustrar essas divisões e sua importância para a desigualdade em nível
global, são utilizados estudos de caso e dados empíricos. O artigo termina com um apelo à
mudança, afirmando que os governos locais, a comunidade empresarial e as instituições
internacionais devem colaborar para eliminar a exclusão digital. Este artigo destaca a
importância de abordar as desigualdades digitais para alcançar um futuro digital mais
inclusivo.
Palavras-chave
Clivagem digital, mobilidade social, desigualdades digitais, acesso à tecnologia, literacia
digital.
How to cite this article
Alarsaheb, Inamdar Tipusultan (2025). Digital Divide: Analysing the Impact of Unequal Access to
Technology on Social Mobility. Janus.net, e-journal of international relations. VOL. 16, Nº. 2,
November 2025-April 2026, pp. 40-56. DOI https://doi.org/10.26619/1647-7251.16.2.3
Article submitted on 26th January 2025 and accepted for publication on 31st May 2025.
JANUS.NET, e-journal of International Relations
e-ISSN: 1647-7251
VOL. 16, Nº. 2
November 2025-April 2026, pp. 40-56
Digital Divide: Analysing the Impact of Unequal Access to Technology on Social Mobility
Inamdar Tipusultan Alarsaheb
42
DIGITAL DIVIDE: ANALYSING THE IMPACT OF UNEQUAL ACCESS
TO TECHNOLOGY ON SOCIAL MOBILITY
INAMDAR TIPUSULTAN ALARSAHEB
Introduction
The digital divide has emerged as one of the most concerning issues in the 21st century
as people and societies advance and strive to benefit from the web. It is possible to
identify attempts on a global level to use technology, however, there is still an inadequate
access to digital tools which prevents several communities from growing economically
and socially (Warschauer, 2004). This phenomenon is pronounced for the low-income
groups. This research seeks to analyse the underlying factors of the digital divide while
focusing on its impact on social mobility and inequality around the world. In this regard,
the study is expected to fill in the gaps and suggest measures that can reduce the existing
inequity in the digital world.
1.1 Background of the Study
Technology has ushered in a new era that has transformed societal structures (Castells,
2009). Individuals can now communicate with one another more rapidly and efficiently.
Digital tools have expanded the domains of governance, healthcare, education, and
employment. However, not all individuals have benefited from these advancements. The
disparity between individuals who own technological devices and those who lack them is
referred to as the "digital divide." This division manifests in various forms, such as device
ownership, internet accessibility, and technological proficiency. Financial constraints,
inadequate system configurations, and a lack of leadership focus have exacerbated this
disparity (Norris, 2001). This has excluded numerous individuals from the information.
We must critically examine the persistent occurrences of this inequity. This encompasses
the disparate access to technology that exacerbates existing inequities.
1.2 Definition of the Digital Divide
The term ‘digital divide’ entails inequalities in terms of possession, accessibility, and
mastery in the use of technology. It is usually described in three categories: the Access
Divide, which points out the lack of equity and equality in the possession of devices and
internet; the Skills Divide, which indicates the different level of expertise of people in the
use of digital devices; and the Usage Divide, which includes the theory of differences in
the application of technology for socio-economic purposes and to what extent it is
applied. These divides taken together define whether individuals and communities are
included in the digital economy, education, and governance.
JANUS.NET, e-journal of International Relations
e-ISSN: 1647-7251
VOL. 16, Nº. 2
November 2025-April 2026, pp. 40-56
Digital Divide: Analysing the Impact of Unequal Access to Technology on Social Mobility
Inamdar Tipusultan Alarsaheb
43
1.3 Importance of Social Mobility in Reducing Inequalities
Social mobility is the progress of societal agents or groups within socio-economic
structures and is thus an important part of reducing equity gaps. The means through
which technology can assist social mobility is in the field of imparting resources related
to education, skills, and employment. Segments of society unserved by the technology
will find themselves in much greater difficulties because of a lack of access to such forms
of education. For instance, lack of availability of online educational resources has
exacerbated the disparities in educational opportunities and fewer education services
mean fewer job opportunities as well. Bridging the gap in digital resources should be
made a priority in increasing social mobility while constructing a fair society in which
access to opportunities is not determined by social, economic, or geographical factors
(Warschauer, 2004).
1.4 Objectives of the Study
The study aims to:
1. Investigate the impact of the digital divide on education, employment, and economic
development.
2. Examine global disparities between developed and developing nations in terms of
digital access.
3. Propose actionable recommendations for bridging the digital divide to promote social
mobility and inclusivity.
1.5 Research Questions
1. What are the primary components of the digital divide, and how do they interact?
2. How does unequal access to technology affect educational and employment
outcomes?
3. What role does the digital divide play in perpetuating global disparities between
developed and developing nations?
4. How can collaborative efforts between governments, businesses, and international
organizations create a more inclusive digital ecosystem?
1.6 Research Methodology and Case Selection Rationale
This study employs a qualitative approach using a comparative case study methodology
to scrutinize the impact of the digital divide phenomena on social mobility across different
socio-economic and geopolitical contexts. The comparative approach helps to holistically
understand the disparities regarding the availability of the digital resources, skills, and
infrastructure and their educational, occupational, and economic outcome impacts across
various societies. In order to maintain methodological rigor and increase the overall
analysis of the inquiry, the three case studies—India, South Korea, and Sub-Saharan
Africa—were selected according to a pre-determined set of criteria. First, the cases have
JANUS.NET, e-journal of International Relations
e-ISSN: 1647-7251
VOL. 16, Nº. 2
November 2025-April 2026, pp. 40-56
Digital Divide: Analysing the Impact of Unequal Access to Technology on Social Mobility
Inamdar Tipusultan Alarsaheb
44
been chosen with regard to differing levels of digital exclusion which were measured
using internet coverage, availability of ICT infrastructure, and digital literacy levels. Sub-
Saharan Africa exemplifies acute digital deprivation; India reflects an intermediary
position with substantial internal disparities; and South Korea represents a digitally
advanced society with near-universal access (James, 2020). Second, the selection
considers comparative developmental positioning, encompassing low-, middle-, and
high-income economies enabling a gradient assessment of the impacts of the digital
divide. Third, all cases are found to differ greatly in their policy and institutional responses
to digital inequality, ranging from strong and sustained interventions in South Korea and
uneven emerging initiatives in India and many Sub-Saharan countries (Couldry & Mejias,
2021). The integration of these criteria allows for an assessment of the quad reform
factors of infrastructure, technology, policy impact, and their interactions with digital
inequality and its multi-faceted socio-economic impacts. The analysis is based on a range
of primary data such as official documents, and reports of socio-economic development.
Such an approach enhances the practical scope of the investigation while at the same
time increases the degree of theoretical applicability of the results to situations
characterized by different levels of digital development of the society under study. The
analysis of the programs is useful in that it offers a comparative perspective, but it is
also clear within the study that the absence of longitudinal data is a major limitation. A
number of initiatives, such as the Digital India Programme, are new and thus do not allow
for an assessment of their lasting impacts on social mobility. This changing phenomenon
limits the ability to make firm judgments about lasting benefits in other areas.
2. Components of the Digital Divide
2.1 Access to Devices and Infrastructure: The Foundational Divide
Proficiency towards the use of technology starts from the ownership of devices such as
tablets, laptops, and smartphones, status along with a good connection to the internet
services. The gap between the urban and rural areas encompasses the affordability of
these devices and a properly developed infrastructure that provides connectivity,
especially in the developing countries (Van Dijk, 2020). To exemplify, around big cities
there may be strong well-functioning internet and broadband lines, while huts in rural
areas are still struggling for strong lines. And social factors make matters worse, as those
who earn little cannot buy the new technology, which widens even more the disparity
between haves and have nots (Norris, 2001).
2.2 Digital Literacy and Technology Skills: Enabling Competence
Conditions of Enablement Owning an internet enabled gadget is not a sufficient condition
to ensure full digital participation. The ability to competently utilize technology as
mentioned, is a critical element of the divide. Having capabilities like internet and digital
communications are fundamental yet multiple people are lacking even those (Helsper,
2021). Moreover, operating and analysing software, which are vital skills in the
contemporary workplace, are considered ‘advanced competencies’ and once again, many
people, unfortunately, are missing these advanced skills as well. In addition, generational
divides often are part of the problem too, given that the elder population is notoriously
JANUS.NET, e-journal of International Relations
e-ISSN: 1647-7251
VOL. 16, Nº. 2
November 2025-April 2026, pp. 40-56
Digital Divide: Analysing the Impact of Unequal Access to Technology on Social Mobility
Inamdar Tipusultan Alarsaheb
45
slow to adopt new apparatuses (DiMaggio, Hargittai, Neuman, Robinson., 2001). The
problems posed are deep, particularly in the context of education and training strategies,
ensuring that without such plans, the existing skill gaps would remain and so would the
socioeconomic divides in communities and groups (Livingstone & Sefton-Green, 2022;
Schou & Hjelholt, 2019).
2.3 Patterns of Technology Usage and Access: Unequal Benefits
The most glaring example of the digital divide is in relation to technology usage, and
even if the skill set in using technology is taken into consideration, such disparities
remain. For some people, technology is a tool for learning, acquiring new skills, or
conducting business; for others, it is limited as entertainment tool (Gunkel, 2003).
Gender and other social factors, such as discrimination against certain groups within
society, tend to create barriers to achieving this goal and therefore technologies are not
universally adopted. Furthermore, the relatively high price of more advanced digital
services constrains their use among poor people (Ragnedda & Muschert, 2013). To
address such gaps, technology users need that additional support in the form of equitable
access and development of the basic skills needed to use the technology to the fullest
extent (Pearce & Rice, 2017).
3. Impact of the Digital Divide on Key Areas
Figure 1
JANUS.NET, e-journal of International Relations
e-ISSN: 1647-7251
VOL. 16, Nº. 2
November 2025-April 2026, pp. 40-56
Digital Divide: Analysing the Impact of Unequal Access to Technology on Social Mobility
Inamdar Tipusultan Alarsaheb
46
3.1 Education and Digital Learning Inequalities
Education is one of the most affected realms due to the divide, it is worth noting that it
has become increasingly difficult to pursue any form of learning without the aid of some
modern resources. In many countries, especially those that are underdeveloped,
students do not have access to the basic aspects that would allow them to thrive in a
digital learning environment which includes, computers, tablets, smartphones and
internet connections. Consequently, during the COVID-19 pandemic as students were
instructed to attend classes virtually, students who belonged from low-income families,
or lived in rural areas were unable to participate in classes due to the lack of basic
resources such as stable internet connection (Selwyn, 2016; Warschauer, 2018).
Barriers to accessing digital learning platforms go beyond just access to devices. Apart
from the accessibility of devices, several other factors like, lack of sufficient locally
relevant digital content, a poor rate of digital literacy education of teachers, minimal
investment on the part of the government into school digital infrastructure create a
vicious educational inequality cycle where tech driven economy skills and knowledge
becomes unattainable to poor segments of society (Warschauer, 2004). Without
removing these barriers, the aim of ameliorating the educational divide and thereby
enhancing equal opportunities will remain a lofty dream.
3.2 Employment and Economic Disparities
The unemployment problem is aggravated by the absence of digital skills for a digitalized
society especially where people lack any digital training. Digitization of the 21
st
century
has made it a necessity that you are able to operate digital equipment and manoeuvre
various online sites which is a core requirement for many jobs. Unfortunately, such
training opportunities especially for the less privileged are very limited making skill
acquisition difficult. Lacking these skills makes attaining well-paying jobs in the finance,
technology, e commerce and other related high demands industries unattainable (Rainie
& Anderson, 2017). Moreover, the digitally disadvantaged are discriminated in the
employment arena. A very few employers often accept those who are qualified but do
not possess the digital credibility, whereas, in times of selection, the ones who are more
qualified are selected with the acceptance of possessing the required qualifications
(Schradie, 2019). As a result, you are placed within a vicious cycle. For example, if a
person cannot get into the digital economy, he/she will be further excluded. The situation
is exacerbated in the developing countries where digital economies are too aspiring, but
low literacy levels and poor infrastructure prevent a large chunk from entering such
economies. Such economic displacement forebodes ill as they lead to inequality and
reduce social mobility over time.
3.3 Economic Development and Global Disparities
Closely linked with economic development from the perspective of both national and
international economic development, the digital divide has some vague propositions.
There are nations developed socio-economically in all things technological. Such nations
have the requisite digital infrastructure to enable levels and standards of education for
JANUS.NET, e-journal of International Relations
e-ISSN: 1647-7251
VOL. 16, Nº. 2
November 2025-April 2026, pp. 40-56
Digital Divide: Analysing the Impact of Unequal Access to Technology on Social Mobility
Inamdar Tipusultan Alarsaheb
47
digital literacy from within their family groups (Castells, 2009). On the other hand,
developing countries lack exactly what is required. More often than not, a great deal of
this boils down to factors like lack of access to broadband internet, infrastructural
development to enable the incorporation of digital technology, and that is on top of other
aspects relevant to agriculture, healthcare, and education. That is where this inequality
in access combines with practically equal levels of economic disparity between states.
For instance, underdeveloped resource-based countries with poorly built digital
infrastructure are unable to access the international digital markets or participate in
global value chains. They are unable to take advantage of the recent technologies such
as Artificial Intelligence and Blockchain, and Big Data Analytics since it does not help
increase productivity levels and support the country's needs for better public services,
where the need arises for foreign investments to stimulate the market. Such a degree of
deprived capacity, education, and technology leads directly to low levels of innovation
and entrepreneurship in developing nations (Ragnedda & Muschert, 2013). Filling the
distance made by lack of resources directing toward technology remains a formidable
challenge approached toward attaining sustainable economic growth in which every state
leverage technology.
4. Case Studies and Empirical Evidence
4.1 Analysis of Education Inequalities in Developing Regions
Among poorer parts of the world, the extent of educational inequalities caused by the
digital divide is considerable (Selwyn, 2014). According to the UNESCO (2021) report,
there were over millions of students globally who were affected by school closures due
to the COVID-19 pandemic and the impact was felt disproportionately by students from
developing nations. As an example, sub-Saharan Africa had thousands of pupils who were
excluded from having the opportunity to participate in remote learning due to lack of
electricity. The case of India highlights another discrepancy. Rural areas were in dire
need of resources when students attending urban areas made an entirely effective shift
to remote learning. More than 80% of rural India households lack access to the internet,
as pointed out by an annual report status about education (ASER) in 2021 which
demonstrates millions of schools going children not having access to effective educational
resources. Moreover, the absence of affordable devices deepened the disparity and
escalated the already existing education gap between the rural and urban learners. Such
case is a true depiction of the need to invest in equal access to resources and digital
infrastructure in learning environments.
4.2 Employment Gaps as a Result of the Digital Divide
The International Labour Organization had a study in 2020 which shows how the divide
caused by technological innovations widened the gap in employment opportunities,
especially between developed and developing nations. Low-income countries had only
17% of the workers able to secure remote jobs while more than 40% of high-income
countries’ workers were able to land a remote job. These numbers are a representation
of how the shift in availability of technology healthcare workers in less privileged
countries are unable to enjoy the benefits of remote employment. In South Africa for
JANUS.NET, e-journal of International Relations
e-ISSN: 1647-7251
VOL. 16, Nº. 2
November 2025-April 2026, pp. 40-56
Digital Divide: Analysing the Impact of Unequal Access to Technology on Social Mobility
Inamdar Tipusultan Alarsaheb
48
instance, broadband internet penetration is at a woeful 10%, denying most job seekers
the ability to apply for jobs or take part in online skills development courses (Rainie &
Anderson, 2017). This is also the case in Latin America, where women do not participate
in the workforce as much as men due to skills training and devices being out of reach.
These instances serve as a reminder of how the digital divide contributes to existing
structural inequities in labour markets, further diminishing social mobility opportunities
(Graham & Dutton, 2019; Castells, 2010).
4.3 Global Comparisons: Success Stories and Ongoing Issues
On a global scale, some countries have shown great improvement in addressing the
digital divide while the challenge remains for other regions. South Korea represents a
success story after almost all its citizens gained access to the internet, coupled with a
strong digital literacy policy due to large government funding (Van Dijk, 2020). South
Korean students have been able to get access to modern education materials through
advanced government policies, which ensures the country has a technologically savvy
population.
On the other hand, Nigeria and Bangladesh are still grappling with these issues. Over
fifty percent of the Nigerian populace do not have dependable internet access, resulting
in poor engagement with the digital sphere (Ragnedda & Muschert, 2013). In
Bangladesh, there has been some progress in mobile connectivity but the low-income
families cannot afford the devices and services, limiting their ability to use educational
and employment resources.
These worldwide comparisons illustrate that even though investments in technology and
policies can greatly help to solve the digital divide, socio-economic and physical barriers
should be tackled in a structured manner for people to have the opportunity to access
technology globally.
5. Drivers and Barriers to Bridging the Digital Divide
Figure 2
JANUS.NET, e-journal of International Relations
e-ISSN: 1647-7251
VOL. 16, Nº. 2
November 2025-April 2026, pp. 40-56
Digital Divide: Analysing the Impact of Unequal Access to Technology on Social Mobility
Inamdar Tipusultan Alarsaheb
49
5.1 Policy Interventions and Government Initiatives
Existing governments can substantially contribute towards bridging the digital divide
through specific policies and investment in infrastructure. Thus, many countries have
developed national strategies to improve digital access and literacy (Norris, 2001). One
such effort is the Digital India Initiative, which seeks to strengthen online infrastructure,
enhance the connectivity of the population in India, and utilize technology to enable
citizens’ empowerment. As part of this program, government projects like BharatNet are
indeed aimed at broadband connectivity to more than 250000 rural villages. In the same
manner, the Federal Communications Commission (FCC) in the United States set up the
Emergency Broadband Benefit Program, which provides low-income families with
subsidies to pay for broadband internet services and devices. In Kenya, the government
joined efforts with certain international agencies to bring cheap internet solutions to rural
parts of the country, which has vastly improved the level of access in these regions.
These measures highlight the potential of government strategies in promoting digital
inclusion. Yet, there are still many countries where scarce resources, red tape, and
political volatility weaken these policies’ potential effectiveness (Castells, 2009).
5.2 Role of Private Sector and Technology Companies
The need for a robust response from the private sector, and especially from technology
companies, is even more crucial in providing solutions to the digital divide. Google,
Microsoft and many other companies have created initiatives to address world
connectivity. For example, Google's Project Loon employed the use of high-altitude
balloons to offer internet services to remote places, while Microsoft's Airband Initiative
works with local organizations to increase broadband coverage in rural areas of Africa
and North America (Rainie & Anderson, 2017). The aforementioned factors, including
investment by the private sector in low-cost technologies and digital skills training, have
been remarkable. Let us take two examples, the corporate schools offered by IBM and
Cisco which teach coding and related IT skills to those on the fringes of society. In some
instances, private sector firms have also provided other devices like tablets and laptops
to enhance usability. Still, profit motives and market-driven strategies may leave the
poorest out, making it important for the private sector to take these steps within the
context of broader social inclusion strategies.
5.3 Socio-Cultural and Economic Barriers
Social, cultural and economic barriers, however, still stand in the way of efforts aimed at
addressing the digital divide owing to the existing technological and policy gaps. Biases
directed towards the vulnerable, in the form of women, ethnic groups and the poor, serve
to deepen the digital gap. For example, within the cultural context of many developing
nations, women’s access to technology is limited breaking the women’s digital divide. A
GSMA (2021) report notes that women from low to middle-income earning nations are
less likely by 15% to use mobile internet as compared to men. The costs of devices and
internet services are economic barriers that, to a great extent, affect the situation with
digital divide. In contrast, these devices and connectivity is unaffordable for the general
population in Nigeria and Bangladesh (Helsper, 2021). In addition, windows of
JANUS.NET, e-journal of International Relations
e-ISSN: 1647-7251
VOL. 16, Nº. 2
November 2025-April 2026, pp. 40-56
Digital Divide: Analysing the Impact of Unequal Access to Technology on Social Mobility
Inamdar Tipusultan Alarsaheb
50
opportunity that these affected groups can avail is blocked by the insufficient levels of
digital literacy. Overcoming these barriers requires a combination of policies aimed at
improving education access or providing direct subsidies or countering discriminatory
practices to expand equality of access to digital communication technology usage (Sen,
1999).
6. Collaborative Efforts for a Digital Future
6.1 Role of Local Governments in Digital Inclusion
Since local governments are nearest to the most impacted population groups, they are
well placed to promote and implement solutions targeted to specific areas for improved
digital inclusion. Enhanced accessibility has the potential to be achieved through local
government investments in projects geared towards improving the digital infrastructure
like the installation of high-speed internet, as well as for paying subsidies for the devices
and for the connection. For instance, municipal governments in Barcelona and Stockholm
city have instituted initiatives such as free public Wi-Fi and programs to promote digital
literacy for disadvantaged groups, provided within the framework of smart cities
(Castells, 2009). Local government is equally important to the integration of technology
into the educational systems. KITE (Kerala Infrastructure and Technology for Education)
in India is one example of how local governments could equip learners and instructors
with relevant digital equipment and their training (Warschauer, 2004). Additionally,
public information campaigns can help eliminate cultural barriers to technology use and
motivate women and other rural populations to adopt new technologies. But, with limited
budgets and poor administrative capacity, local governments often find it hard to
accomplish their objectives which highlights the importance of achieving those goals
through coordination from other levels of government.
6.2 International Institutions and Global Policies
Global institutions like the United Nations, World Bank and the International
Telecommunication Union (ITU) are immensely important towards building collaboration
on a global level to address the existing digital divide. They assist different countries in
increasing their digital reach by providing funding, expert guidance, and help in drafting
policies. For instance, the focus of the United Nations sustainable development goal 9
targets infrastructure development and innovation, with a particular focus on the goal of
providing affordable internet access for all citizens by 2030.
Partnerships such as the World Bank’s Digital Development Partnership help developing
countries improve their digital infrastructure, boost cybersecurity, and foster diverse
digital economies (Norris, 2001). The ITU also works with its member countries to ensure
universal connectivity and the basic requirement of digital literacy under its Connect 2030
Agenda. However, doing this is often hampered in regions roiled with conflict or that are
politically fragile due to the global imbalances of funding and a lack of political willingness
(Van Dijk, 2020). Increasing the collaborative efforts of national policies with
international institutions can help augment the outcome of such initiatives.
JANUS.NET, e-journal of International Relations
e-ISSN: 1647-7251
VOL. 16, Nº. 2
November 2025-April 2026, pp. 40-56
Digital Divide: Analysing the Impact of Unequal Access to Technology on Social Mobility
Inamdar Tipusultan Alarsaheb
51
6.3 Public-Private Partnerships in Technology Accessibility
Mobilizing resources, skills, and creativity from the public and private sector through PPPs
helps reduce the digital divide swiftly. The combination of skills from governments and
the private sector enables PPPs to address challenges like expensive infrastructure, lack
of affordable devices, and low digital literacy. A great example is the partnership between
Google and the Indian government under the Google Internet Saathi program, which
trained over 30 million rural women in digital skills and provided them with tools to access
the internet.
Furthermore, we can observe that the government has partnered with companies like
Microsoft and Facebook to increase internet coverage in difficult areas. Both Microsoft
and Facebook contributed in different but overlapping ways: Facebook created the
spatially cheaper Express Wi-Fi program, while Microsoft focused on projects like the
Airband Initiative, which aims to spread broadband access to remote areas in Africa, Asia,
and Latin America. Not only do these initiatives improve internet access, but they also
foster economic development by employing local residents in their actualization. Despite
their potential, public private partnerships are only as effective as the alignment between
corporate goals and the public interest (Fuchs, 2014). Private companies focus more on
profit margins while the government is tasked with making sure that these partnerships
seek to include a higher number of people.
A cross-national comparative analysis of both successful and struggling initiatives reveals
a more complex understanding of policy efficacy in relation to the digital divide. Take
South Korea, for instance, whose government broadband expansion is often touted as a
model of success due to extensive government spending, strategic public-private
partnerships, and a comprehensive digital policy blueprint. On the other hand, India’s
BharatNet project is marred by chronic delays resulting from administrative backlogs,
poor inter-agency coordination, and infrastructural issues relating to rural deployment.
These two examples vividly highlight the burden of governance un-sustained by funding
transparency and policy flexibility responsiveness at subnational levels. Moreover, while
it may be argued that public-private partnerships enable agile scaling of digital
infrastructure, their associated costs are frequently overlooked. The alternative, though,
raises the flag that unregulated access models driven by profit can disproportionately
marginalize other populations while commercially oversaturating non-essential services.
Ignoring these changes within inclusion policies risks creating technically efficient
algorithms but socially inequitable outcomes through a democratically unaccountable
framework.
7. Recommendations
7.1 Policy-Level Recommendations
1. Universal Broadband Access
Decision-makers need to work on building broadband infrastructure such that it is
affordable and accessible, especially in the rural areas. Like in South Korea and some
parts of the European Union, universal broadband initiatives should be with the goal of
treating internet connectivity as a public amenity. This requires investment in broadband
JANUS.NET, e-journal of International Relations
e-ISSN: 1647-7251
VOL. 16, Nº. 2
November 2025-April 2026, pp. 40-56
Digital Divide: Analysing the Impact of Unequal Access to Technology on Social Mobility
Inamdar Tipusultan Alarsaheb
52
technology. To reach remote areas where cable infrastructure is impossible, satellites
and fibre-optic networks must be put in place. These policies must set affordability
targets and build incentives for broadband service providers to expand their coverage to
the neglected areas.
2. Device and Internet Connectivity Subsidies
Governments should, for instance, establish subsidy programs to enable people from
low-income families to pay for digital devices and the internet. These programs could
facilitate offering low-cost laptops, tablets, and even mobile phones, as well as providing
financial assistance for internet service plans. For example, voucher programs that
subsidize the purchase of devices or discounted internet rates for low-income families
would greatly enhance technology penetration. This would minimize the disparity in
access to digital tools between the haves and have-nots.
3. Plans for Promoting Digital Equity
Digital equity plans should also define specific objectives, and targets for actions and
programs that have clear timelines at the local and national levels. These plans should
also have geographical based approaches that consider the gaps that exist in digital
infrastructure especially for rural, remote, and economically disadvantaged places.
Digital equity should be integrated into the development plans of countries, and will make
sure no group is disenfranchised in the digital economy. The progress towards achieving
the objectives and the policies put in place to bridge the digital divide will require regular
monitoring, reporting, and modifications to the plans.
4. Public-Private Partnerships
In the area of resource mobilization and expertise, public-private partnerships are crucial
for addressing issues of digital inclusion. The government should work together with
private sector businesses, especially those in technology, in order to design and
implement large projects that seek to enhance the availability of the internet and improve
digital skills. These PPPs enable government to benefit from the innovation and funding
available in the private sector while at the same time keeping the public concern in view.
For instance, PPP can be successful when the governments and tech firms collaborate to
build affordable internet infrastructure in the underserved rural locations or when they
employ teachers and students in the digital training process. These partnerships can also
encourage the development of cheap educational devices and digital tools.
5. Strengthen Data Protection Policies
The relevance of data protection and privacy together with cybersecurity cannot be
overstated as digital platforms continue to evolve. It is the prerogative of governments
to apply suitable measures and frameworks to guarantee that confidential consumer
information is protected, particularly for user groups that are considered vulnerable.
Legislations which comply with the privacy standards set by the European Union’s
General Data Protection Regulation (GDPR) ought to be adopted in other jurisdictions
(Zuboff, 2019). Equally important, cyber security regulations should be revised on a
regular basis to keep up with new challenges and to increase confidence in the digital
environment. Effective data protection will enable users to access the digital economy
without fear of being exploited or fraudulent.
JANUS.NET, e-journal of International Relations
e-ISSN: 1647-7251
VOL. 16, Nº. 2
November 2025-April 2026, pp. 40-56
Digital Divide: Analysing the Impact of Unequal Access to Technology on Social Mobility
Inamdar Tipusultan Alarsaheb
53
7.2 Educational Initiatives for Digital Literacy
1. Incorporate Digital Literacy into School Curricula
Every student is expected to be proficient with modern technologies therefore, digital
literacy must be integrated into the school syllabus from the earliest years possible
(Buckingham, 2008). Students not only have to learn how to use technological devices
but also how to analyse the information presented to them and interact in a healthy
manner with the online community. This entails teaching students how to properly
exercise digital citizenship, remain safe online, and abide by the principles of technology
use. Moreover, schools should also have practical programs where students learn how to
use computers and software applications, as well as the internet. Such endeavours will
help to prepare the future generations for participation in the digital economy and
enhance their ability to leverage technology positively for their personal and career
development.
2. Teacher Training Programs
Teachers’ use of technology is an important factor when considering how best to integrate
digital literacy instruction in the teaching. Government and educational institutions need
to run professional development programs for teachers to broaden their understanding
of the use of digital tools and methodologies. This training has to go beyond just
administrative uses of technology, to include digital tools for teaching and learning
processes. Teachers must have the requisite skills to support students to use technology
for research, communication, and other creative activities. With proper training, teachers
will be able to use their professional skills to engage students and promote critical
thinking through the use of technology.
3. Accessible Digital Learning Platforms
Governments and educational institutions need to make an effort on making education
digital learning platforms that are accessible to every student regardless of their socio-
economic status. These platforms ought to include a variety of educational resources
such as textbooks, videos, and tutorials all in different languages as well as different
types of media. Equally important is the screen technology for disabilities, where students
can simply have all written material read out to them. Also, these platforms ought to be
lower end device friendly. These new platforms might serve as online learning centres
which provide both formal and informal education to everyone regardless of their age
enabling them to learn new skills as new opportunities become available.
4. Promote Public Access to Learning Tools
Access to digital materials is a challenge for numerous students who cannot afford them;
in order to address these issues, public learning tools should be made available at social
institutions like public libraries and community centres. Furthermore, Public Access Places
should allow students and other users to access computers, tablets, and other resources
with high-speed internet so that they can enhance their education and build skills. Such
centres could also arrange workshops in which use of digital devices could be taught
which would enable more people to access education digitally. This would in turn provide
opportunities to those who do not have the necessary resources to learn new skills.
JANUS.NET, e-journal of International Relations
e-ISSN: 1647-7251
VOL. 16, Nº. 2
November 2025-April 2026, pp. 40-56
Digital Divide: Analysing the Impact of Unequal Access to Technology on Social Mobility
Inamdar Tipusultan Alarsaheb
54
5. Scholarships and Grants for Digital Access
To provide equal opportunity for all students, it is essential to combat the imbalance of
access to modern technology and the internet by providing financial support for students
in need (Sen, 1999). As well as governments, private companies can also help by
providing grants and low interest loans to underprivileged students, so that they can
obtain devices or internet connections. These funds should be limited to students coming
from low socio-economic backgrounds or those belonging to the underprivileged sections
of the society. These initiatives will provide opportunities for the underprivileged sections
of the society and work towards a more equal education.
7.3 Grassroots Innovations and Community-Based Solutions
1. Community Digital Literacy Campaigns
Digital literacy campaigns cantered on basic internet and computer skills along with
online safety need to be initiated by local governments in conjunction with local
organizations. Such initiatives need to be tailored around the needs of the communities
with a focus on disadvantaged groups including the elderly in rural areas, and women
(Tapscott, 2009). With the assistance of established community leaders and
organizations, these campaigns can be optimized to reach the illiterate population. For
instance, the use of workshops, mobile learning centres, and community radio can
promote the training of essential digital skills and garner appreciation of its importance.
2. Empowering Local Entrepreneurs in Technology
Local entrepreneurs have the potential to play an important role towards bridging the
digital divide. There is a need for NGOs and governments to support programs that assist
the growth of local technology startups, especially those that cater to affordable and
relevant technological needs (Fuchs, 2014). As an example, local entrepreneurs can
manufacture inexpensive smartphones, establish solar powered internet access points,
and create applications designed to resolve region-specific issues. This type of aid not
only encourages innovative strategies in local business problem solving but also ensures
that digital solutions meet the specific needs of the community.
3. Creating Internet Networks That Are Community-Centric
Sometimes, areas where conventional internet services tend to ignore, community-based
internet networks fill that gap. These internet systems are usually created and managed
by local citizens through resource sharing as mesh networks or through community-
owned wireless systems (Van Dijk, 2020). Such systems are crucial in rural and remote
areas where affordable internet is not accessible. They should be encouraged and
supported by the Government through financial, technical, and regulatory assistance.
These community-driven local efforts will be key in reaching those populations that are
mostly without internet services.
4. Ensuring Inclusivity within Digital Solutions
The importance of developing programs tailored for the requirements of social groups
with greater barriers to use such technologies ' digital solutions is paramount to ensure
that all members within the society are able to access such programs. Programs aimed
JANUS.NET, e-journal of International Relations
e-ISSN: 1647-7251
VOL. 16, Nº. 2
November 2025-April 2026, pp. 40-56
Digital Divide: Analysing the Impact of Unequal Access to Technology on Social Mobility
Inamdar Tipusultan Alarsaheb
55
at increasing digital access should give preference to the inclusion of women, ethnic
minorities, people with disabilities, and other underprivileged groups (Ragnedda &
Muschert, 2013). For instance, it is necessary to create easy-to-use digital content for
persons with disabilities, to train women in technology, or construct other digital tools
for refugees. Such measures help build inclusivity while fostering equal measures in
access to technology as well as meeting the cultural limitations.
5. Collaborative Resource Sharing Platforms
In an effort to augment bridging the digital gap, community and business models can be
structured towards creating ‘device, internet access, and skills sharing’ platforms that
can help those who need them the most. For example, pedagogic device donations can
be made through businesses and individuals seeking to give away old or unused devices
to schools, libraries, or community centres. Such platforms could also include sharing
educational materials like e-books, online courses, and software tools as well, diminishing
the opportunities gap between the affluent and marginalized. Promoting the community
to be part of these initiatives can foster a sense of responsibility and unity towards
overcoming digital divide.
8. Conclusion
To summarize, the absence of equal access to technology continues to act as an
impediment to social equity, affecting the availability of educational, job, and health
services. The evidence illustrates that the lack of access to technology, the skills to use
it, and the necessary infrastructure is a complex issue that stems from socio-economic
and spatial considerations. These issues have to be solved through a combined effort by
the entire world together with the appropriate actions from governments, businesses,
and community leaders so that everyone irrespective of their class has access to the
means and knowledge needed to be active users of technology. Going forward, it is
important for subsequent works to analyse the current interventions aimed at increasing
digital inclusion, develop new solutions to increase coverage, and determine the effects
of enhanced access to technology on the previously disadvantaged groups in the society.
Evidence-based strategies for closing these gaps are required in order to promote
inclusiveness and sustainable development in the digital age.
References
Avgerou, C. (2010). Discourses on ICT and development. Information Technologies &
International Development.
Buckingham, D. (2008). Youth, Identity, and Digital Media. MIT Press.
Castells, M. (2009). The Rise of the Network Society: The Information Age: Economy,
Society, and Culture (2nd ed.). Wiley-Blackwell.
Castells, M. (2010). The Rise of the Network Society (2nd ed.). Wiley-Blackwell.
Couldry, N., & Mejias, U. A. (2021). The Costs of Connection: How Data Is Colonizing
Human Life and Appropriating It for Capitalism. Stanford University Press.
JANUS.NET, e-journal of International Relations
e-ISSN: 1647-7251
VOL. 16, Nº. 2
November 2025-April 2026, pp. 40-56
Digital Divide: Analysing the Impact of Unequal Access to Technology on Social Mobility
Inamdar Tipusultan Alarsaheb
56
DiMaggio, P., Hargittai, E., Neuman, W. R., & Robinson, J. P. (2001). Social Implications
of the Internet. Annual Review of Sociology.
Fuchs, C. (2014). Digital Labour and Karl Marx. Routledge.
Graham, M., & Dutton, W. H. (Eds.). (2019). Society and the Internet: How Networks of
Information and Communication are Changing Our Lives. Oxford University Press.
Gunkel, D. J. (2003). Second Thoughts: Towards a Critique of the Digital Divide. New
Media & Society.
Helsper, E. J. (2021). The Digital Disconnect: The Social Causes and Consequences of
Digital Inequalities. SAGE Publications.
Livingstone, S., & Sefton-Green, J. (2022). The Class: Living and Learning in the Digital
Age. NYU Press.
Norris, P. (2001). Digital Divide: Civic Engagement, Information Poverty, and the
Internet Worldwide. Cambridge University Press.
Pearce, K. E., & Rice, R. E. (2017). Digital Divides: The New Challenges and Opportunities
of e-Inclusion. Peter Lang.
Ragnedda, M., & Muschert, G. W. (2013). The Digital Divide: The Internet and Social
Inequality in International Perspective. Routledge.
Rainie, L., & Anderson, J. (2017). The Future of Jobs and Jobs Training. Pew Research
Center.
Schradie, J. (2019). The Revolution That Wasn’t: How Digital Activism Favors
Conservatives. Harvard University Press.
Selwyn, N. (2014). Digital Technology and the Contemporary University: Degrees of
Digitization. Routledge.
Selwyn, N. (2016). Education and Technology: Key Issues and Debates (2nd ed.).
Bloomsbury Academic.
Sen, A. (1999). Development as Freedom. Oxford University Press.
Tapscott, D. (2009). Grown Up Digital: How the Net Generation is Changing Your World.
McGraw-Hill.
Van Dijk, J. A. G. M. (2020). The Digital Divide. Polity Press.
Warschauer, M. (2004). Technology and Social Inclusion: Rethinking the Digital Divide.
MIT Press.
Warschauer, M. (2018). Learning in the Cloud: How (and Why) to Transform Schools
with Digital Media. Teachers College Press.
Zuboff, S. (2019). The Age of Surveillance Capitalism: The Fight for a Human Future at
the New Frontier of Power. PublicAffairs.
OBSERVARE
Universidade Autónoma de Lisboa
e-ISSN: 1647-7251
VOL. 16, Nº. 2
November 2025-April 2026
57
INTEGRATING INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS INTO MARITIME VOCATIONAL
EDUCATION: ENHANCING GLOBAL COMPETENCE IN THE INDUSTRY
MARUDUT BERNADTUA SIMANJUNTAK
bernadmarudut@gmail.com
He holds Doctoral degree, Moriah Seminary College and takes his second doctoral study in
Applied Linguistics in State University of Jakarta (Indonesia). His Major is in literacy and
education. His fields of interest include international relations, maritime studies and industries,
foreighn policy and cultural studies.
Abstract
As the global maritime industry faces increasing complexities due to geopolitical shifts,
economic dynamics, sustainability challenges, and digital transformations, maritime
vocational education must adapt to prepare professionals for these evolving demands. This
analysis was carried out to explore how international relations (IR) perspectives, which
encompass political, economic, social, cultural, and environmental factors, are integrated into
maritime education programs. Previous research has highlighted the need for such integration
but has also identified gaps in the practical application and systematic incorporation of global
perspectives into curricula. The objective of this study was to assess the current state of IR
integration in maritime education, focusing on how it influences curriculum design,
professional competencies, and global collaboration. The research sought to answer how
maritime education can better prepare students for the globalized maritime industry through
a multidimensional approach to international relations. Using qualitative methods, including
interviews with maritime professionals, educators, and graduates, this study examined the
experiences and perspectives of stakeholders in maritime education. The results revealed that
while there is some recognition of the importance of global perspectives, their integration
remains fragmented, with significant gaps in digitalization, sustainability, and international
collaboration. The findings underscore the need for stronger global partnerships, practical
training opportunities, and curriculum reform to better align educational outcomes with
industry needs. This research contributes to a deeper understanding of how maritime
education can evolve to meet the challenges of a rapidly globalizing and technologically
advancing maritime sector.
Keywords
International Relations, Maritime Education, Vocational Training, Global Competence,
Sustainability.
Resumo
À medida que a indústria marítima global enfrenta complexidades crescentes devido a
mudanças geopolíticas, dinâmicas económicas, desafios de sustentabilidade e transformações
digitais, a educação profissional marítima deve adaptar-se para preparar profissionais para
essas demandas em evolução. Esta análise foi realizada para explorar como as perspetivas
das relações internacionais (RI), que abrangem fatores políticos, económicos, sociais,
culturais e ambientais, são integradas nos programas de educação marítima. Pesquisas
anteriores destacaram a necessidade dessa integração, mas também identificaram lacunas
na aplicação prática e na incorporação sistemática de perspetivas globais nos currículos. O
JANUS.NET, e-journal of International Relations
e-ISSN: 1647-7251
VOL. 16, Nº. 2
November 2025-April 2026, pp. 57-76
Integrating International Relations into Maritime Vocational Education: Enhancing Global
Competence in the Industry
Marudut Bernadtua Simanjuntak
58
objetivo deste estudo foi avaliar o estado atual da integração das RI na educação marítima,
com foco em como isso influencia a elaboração do currículo, as competências profissionais e
a colaboração global. A investigação procurou responder como a educação marítima pode
preparar melhor os estudantes para a indústria marítima globalizada através de uma
abordagem multidimensional das relações internacionais. Utilizando métodos qualitativos,
incluindo entrevistas com profissionais marítimos, educadores e graduados, este estudo
examinou as experiências e perspetivas das partes interessadas na educação marítima. Os
resultados revelaram que, embora haja algum reconhecimento da importância das
perspetivas globais, a sua integração permanece fragmentada, com lacunas significativas na
digitalização, sustentabilidade e colaboração internacional. Os resultados sublinham a
necessidade de parcerias globais mais fortes, oportunidades de formação prática e reforma
curricular para melhor alinhar os resultados educativos com as necessidades da indústria.
Esta investigação contribui para uma compreensão mais aprofundada de como a educação
marítima pode evoluir para enfrentar os desafios de um setor marítimo em rápida globalização
e avanço tecnológico.
Palavras-chave
Relações Internacionais, Educação Marítima, Formação Profissional, Competência Global,
Sustentabilidade.
How to cite this article
Simanjuntak, Marudut Bernadtua (2025). Integrating International Relations into Maritime
Vocational Education: Enhancing Global Competence in the Industry. Janus.net, e-journal of
international relations. VOL. 16, Nº. 2, November 2025-April 2026, pp. 57-76. DOI
https://doi.org/10.26619/1647-7251.16.2.4
Article submitted on 05th December 2024 and accepted for publication on 5th September
2025.
JANUS.NET, e-journal of International Relations
e-ISSN: 1647-7251
VOL. 16, Nº. 2
November 2025-April 2026, pp. 57-76
Integrating International Relations into Maritime Vocational Education: Enhancing Global
Competence in the Industry
Marudut Bernadtua Simanjuntak
59
INTEGRATING INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS INTO MARITIME
VOCATIONAL EDUCATION: ENHANCING GLOBAL
COMPETENCE IN THE INDUSTRY
MARUDUT BERNADTUA SIMANJUNTAK
Introduction
The maritime industry plays an integral role in the global economy, serving as the primary
avenue for the transportation of goods and raw materials across international waters. It
is a multifaceted sector, deeply influenced by political, economic, strategic, social, and
environmental factors (Pu & Lam, 2021; Toriia et al., 2023; Zaderei, 2020). As the
industry continues to evolve, driven by globalization, digital advancements, and an
increasing demand for sustainability, the workforce must adapt to meet these emerging
challenges. The complexity of the maritime sector, along with the rapid pace of
technological change and the growing emphasis on sustainable practices, requires an
overhaul of how maritime professionals are trained. Traditional maritime education has
long focused on technical skills, such as navigation, engineering, and port management,
which, while crucial, no longer suffice in preparing professionals to navigate the
interconnected and evolving global landscape. Today, maritime professionals must
possess not only technical expertise but also an understanding of the political and
economic forces that influence international shipping routes, trade agreements, and
maritime regulations (Tvedt et al., 2018; Zavalniuk et al., 2021). They must be equipped
with the skills to engage with diverse cultures, manage sustainable practices, and
leverage emerging technologies. As such, there is a growing need for a more integrated
and multidimensional approach to maritime education, one that incorporates
international relations perspectives into the curriculum. This approach would not only
enhance the technical competencies of maritime professionals but also prepare them for
the challenges posed by globalization, environmental concerns, and technological
innovation.
This research explores how international relations, with its focus on political, economic,
strategic, social, and environmental dimensions, can be incorporated into maritime
vocational education. It focuses on the importance of integrating these perspectives to
enhance the quality and relevance of training programs for the maritime sector,
particularly in an era marked by rapid digitalization and increasing calls for sustainability.
While existing literature often addresses the technical and regulatory aspects of maritime
education, there is a significant gap in understanding how broader, interdisciplinary
approaches can be effectively incorporated into vocational curricula. The aim of this
research is to fill this gap by examining how such integration can be achieved and what
impact it may have on the preparedness of future maritime professionals.
JANUS.NET, e-journal of International Relations
e-ISSN: 1647-7251
VOL. 16, Nº. 2
November 2025-April 2026, pp. 57-76
Integrating International Relations into Maritime Vocational Education: Enhancing Global
Competence in the Industry
Marudut Bernadtua Simanjuntak
60
The research will draw on the perspectives of maritime professionals, educators, and
graduates, seeking to understand how international relations and other multidisciplinary
perspectives can contribute to the development of more comprehensive and effective
vocational training programs. By examining the intersection of international relations,
digitalization, and sustainability within the maritime education system, this study aims
to provide actionable insights into how maritime curricula can be restructured to address
the needs of a rapidly changing global industry. Ultimately, this research seeks to offer
a framework for reimagining maritime vocational education, ensuring that students are
equipped not only with the technical expertise required for the industry but also with the
broader knowledge and skills needed to navigate the complex and interconnected world
in which they will operate.
Through this exploration, the research will examine how vocational education can foster
a more holistic approach to the training of maritime professionals, integrating knowledge
from diverse fields and addressing the challenges posed by globalization, environmental
sustainability, and digitalization. This study is motivated by the belief that the maritime
industry of the future will require professionals who can think critically across multiple
dimensions and who are prepared to work in a global, dynamic, and sustainable maritime
environment. The research will thus contribute to the development of maritime
education, ensuring that future professionals are not only equipped to meet the demands
of the industry but are also prepared to lead the sector towards a more sustainable and
interconnected future. In light of these considerations, the primary research focus of this
study will be on exploring how international relations, as a comprehensive and
interdisciplinary field, can be used to enrich maritime vocational education and training.
The aim is to create a framework that addresses the multifaceted challenges of the
maritime sector while fostering the development of future professionals who possess the
skills, knowledge, and competencies required to navigate the rapidly changing global
landscape.
Literature Review
The evolution of maritime education has increasingly become a focal point in discussions
on the future of the global maritime industry. As the industry grapples with numerous
challenges related to globalization, digitalization, sustainability, and international
relations, the need for a more holistic, multidimensional approach to maritime education
is becoming ever more apparent (Baylon & Santos, 2011; Chen et al., 2017; Lau & Ng,
2015). This literature review critically examines existing research on maritime education,
focusing on the integration of international relations (IR) approaches, the role of
digitalization and sustainability, and the competencies required for future maritime
professionals. The review also identifies key gaps in the current knowledge and discusses
the theoretical framework that will guide this research.
The Need for a Multidimensional Approach to Maritime Education
The traditional framework of maritime education has long been centered on the
development of technical skills, including navigation, marine engineering, and port
JANUS.NET, e-journal of International Relations
e-ISSN: 1647-7251
VOL. 16, Nº. 2
November 2025-April 2026, pp. 57-76
Integrating International Relations into Maritime Vocational Education: Enhancing Global
Competence in the Industry
Marudut Bernadtua Simanjuntak
61
operations. While these areas of expertise are undeniably crucial, they no longer suffice
in preparing maritime professionals to navigate the increasingly complex globalized
environment. Researchers and educators alike have increasingly called for the integration
of broader interdisciplinary perspectives into maritime education (Albayrak & Ziarati,
2012; Kim & Park, 2019; Lau & Ng, 2015). International relations approaches, in
particular, are gaining attention for their potential to enrich the curriculum and prepare
students to better understand the political, economic, social, cultural, and environmental
dimensions that affect the maritime industry. However, the inclusion of these
perspectives within maritime training programs remains limited.
The literature on this subject reveals a growing recognition of the importance of
incorporating international relations into maritime education. For example, scholars have
argued that a comprehensive understanding of international trade agreements,
geopolitical tensions, and environmental policies is essential for professionals working in
maritime sectors such as shipping, logistics, and port management. The interplay
between political factors, such as trade policies and maritime security, and economic
factors, including global supply chains and financial regulations, significantly impacts the
operations of maritime companies. Furthermore, social and cultural dimensions, including
issues of labor migration, seafarer welfare, and cross-cultural communication, play an
increasingly important role in the management and operation of maritime industries
(Pallis, 2017). Despite this recognition, however, the integration of international relations
into maritime curricula is still in its infancy.
In the context of maritime vocational education, there exists a critical gap in the literature
regarding how IR approaches can be effectively woven into the fabric of the curriculum.
While some studies have examined the role of IR in higher education for maritime
professionals, the focus remains largely on theoretical frameworks rather than practical
applications in vocational training. This presents a significant gap in research, as
vocational education has distinct needs that are often overlooked in academic studies,
particularly those centered on advanced degrees or professional training (Collier, 2015;
Martin, 2015; Wu et al., 2017). Thus, there is an urgent need to bridge this gap by
developing curricula that not only emphasize technical skills but also foster a deeper
understanding of international relations and global maritime issues.
Digitalization and the Future of Maritime Education
In recent years, digitalization has emerged as one of the most transformative forces
within the maritime industry. The adoption of advanced technologies such as automation,
artificial intelligence, blockchain, and the Internet of Things (IoT) has fundamentally
altered how maritime operations are conducted (Laghari et al., 2021; Plaza-Hernández
et al., 2021; Roesler et al., 2020). From autonomous vessels to smart ports and supply
chain management systems, digital technologies are revolutionizing the efficiency,
safety, and sustainability of maritime operations. Consequently, the need for maritime
education to adapt to these technological changes is more pressing than ever.
A considerable body of literature discusses the impact of digitalization on the maritime
industry, particularly in terms of how it affects operational processes, decision-making,
and the management of resources. Many studies have focused on the technical training
JANUS.NET, e-journal of International Relations
e-ISSN: 1647-7251
VOL. 16, Nº. 2
November 2025-April 2026, pp. 57-76
Integrating International Relations into Maritime Vocational Education: Enhancing Global
Competence in the Industry
Marudut Bernadtua Simanjuntak
62
required to operate and maintain these advanced systems, but fewer have explored how
digital literacy and digital competencies should be integrated into maritime education.
The digital divide, which separates countries, regions, and institutions with varying levels
of access to digital technologies, further complicates the issue. While some maritime
institutions are quick to adopt digital tools, a few others, particularly in developing
countries, still lack the infrastructure and resources to implement these changes
effectively. Moreover, the existing research on the impact of digitalization on maritime
education often focuses on specific technical skills, such as proficiency in using new
software or understanding the principles behind autonomous ships. What is less
discussed is the broader pedagogical shift required to integrate digitalization into
maritime curricula. Digital tools offer not only a new method of teaching but also a new
mode of engaging with the world’s increasingly digitalized maritime industry (Gavalas et
al., 2022; Plaza-Hernández et al., 2021; Toriia et al., 2023). In this context, the literature
reveals a gap in research on how digitalization can be used not only for technical training
but also to enhance students’ critical thinking, problem-solving, and communication
skills, which are essential for navigating the complexities of global maritime operations.
Furthermore, the intersection between digitalization and sustainability remains
underexplored in the literature. While there is substantial research on the environmental
impact of maritime operations, especially with regard to reducing carbon emissions and
improving energy efficiency, there is a lack of comprehensive studies that address how
digital tools can facilitate sustainable practices in the maritime industry. Digitalization
offers potential solutions to many sustainability challenges in the maritime sector, such
as optimizing fuel consumption, reducing waste, and improving resource management.
Yet, there is little emphasis on how to teach these concepts within vocational training
programs, particularly at the level where hands-on practical training is the norm.
Sustainability and Maritime Education
Sustainability has become a central issue in many industries, and the maritime sector is
no exception. Given the environmental challenges posed by shipping emissions, waste
management, and resource depletion, maritime professionals must be equipped with the
knowledge and skills necessary to address these concerns. While much of the
sustainability discourse in maritime education has focused on policy-level changes,
regulatory compliance, and environmental management, less attention has been given
to the pedagogical approaches needed to teach sustainability at the vocational level.
Existing research underscores the importance of embedding sustainability into maritime
training programs to ensure that the next generation of maritime professionals is
equipped to meet the sector's environmental challenges (Christodoulou-Varotsi &
Pentsov, 2008; House & Saeed, 2016; Young, 1995). However, there is a significant gap
in understanding how sustainability can be integrated into vocational education
effectively. Many studies focus on technical solutions to sustainability challenges—such
as the development of alternative fuels, emission control technologies, and green ship
designs—without considering the broader educational implications. What is needed is a
framework that connects these technical aspects with a more holistic understanding of
sustainability, including environmental, economic, and social dimensions. This will require
JANUS.NET, e-journal of International Relations
e-ISSN: 1647-7251
VOL. 16, Nº. 2
November 2025-April 2026, pp. 57-76
Integrating International Relations into Maritime Vocational Education: Enhancing Global
Competence in the Industry
Marudut Bernadtua Simanjuntak
63
a shift from teaching sustainability as a standalone subject to embedding it across various
aspects of maritime education, including logistics, navigation, and marine engineering.
Furthermore, there is a lack of research on how sustainability can be taught in a way that
encourages critical thinking and problem-solving among students. Many current
educational practices in the maritime sector rely heavily on rote learning and technical
instruction, which may not be sufficient for fostering the deeper understanding required
to tackle sustainability challenges. Research is needed to explore innovative teaching
methods that promote active learning, encourage the application of sustainability
principles to real-world scenarios, and enable students to understand the broader socio-
economic implications of their decisions in the maritime sector.
Identifying Gaps in Current Knowledge
While significant strides have been made in examining the impact of digitalization and
sustainability on the maritime industry, the integration of international relations
perspectives into maritime education remains underexplored. The majority of existing
research tends to focus on technical, operational, and regulatory aspects of the industry,
with little attention paid to the broader geopolitical, economic, and social factors that
shape maritime operations. This is particularly concerning given the increasing
interconnectedness of global markets and the growing complexity of international trade
and shipping (Comtois & Slack, 2017; Paulica et al., 2013; Toriia et al., 2023). By
focusing primarily on technical skills, maritime vocational education may fail to prepare
students for the multi-dimensional challenges they will face in the real world. Moreover,
the intersection between digitalization, sustainability, and international relations in
maritime education has not been adequately addressed. The integration of these themes
presents an opportunity to create a more holistic, interdisciplinary curriculum that reflects
the complexities of the modern maritime industry. There is a need for research that
examines how vocational training programs can be designed to foster a deeper
understanding of these interconnected issues, equipping students with the skills and
knowledge required to navigate the global maritime landscape.
Theoretical Framework
This research is guided by a multidimensional framework that integrates theories from
international relations, sustainability, and digitalization. The theoretical lens of
international relations will help to contextualize the global factors that impact the
maritime industry, emphasizing the interconnectedness of political, economic, and
cultural factors. The theory of sustainability education will inform the research on how
sustainability can be embedded into vocational training programs, while the theory of
digital literacy will guide the exploration of how digital technologies can be used to
enhance both technical and non-technical competencies. This framework will provide a
comprehensive approach to understanding how vocational education in the maritime
sector can be restructured to address the challenges of the 21st century.
JANUS.NET, e-journal of International Relations
e-ISSN: 1647-7251
VOL. 16, Nº. 2
November 2025-April 2026, pp. 57-76
Integrating International Relations into Maritime Vocational Education: Enhancing Global
Competence in the Industry
Marudut Bernadtua Simanjuntak
64
Method
This research adopts a qualitative research design, which is particularly suited to
exploring complex, multifaceted phenomena within real-world contexts (Katz, 2015;
Merriam & Grenier, 2019; Saldana, 2014). Given the study's aim to understand the
experiences and perspectives of maritime professionals, educators, and graduates
concerning the integration of international relations (IR) perspectives into maritime
vocational education, a qualitative approach allows for a deeper, more nuanced
understanding of the subject matter. Qualitative research is ideal for capturing the
richness of individual experiences, interpreting social contexts, and exploring how people
make sense of their roles and challenges within the maritime sector, particularly in the
intersection of education, international relations, and industry practices. The data
collection method chosen for this research is semi-structured interviews (Ploum et al.,
2017; Ware, 2017). Semi-structured interviews are particularly effective in gathering in-
depth, context-specific information, as they offer flexibility while maintaining a focus on
key themes. The semi-structured format enables the researcher to ask pre-determined
questions, but also to probe further based on the responses of the participants. This
dynamic approach ensures that the participants have the opportunity to express their
views fully, while allowing for the exploration of unexpected insights that may arise
during the interview process.
The research participants consist of three distinct groups: maritime professionals,
educators, and graduates. The maritime professionals include entrepreneurs, officers,
and managers working within the port and shipping industries, as well as those who
engage with international relations issues from a multi-dimensional viewpoint. These
professionals bring practical insights into the challenges and opportunities they face when
integrating political, economic, strategic, social, cultural, and environmental perspectives
into their work. Their perspectives are vital in understanding how international relations
influences decision-making within the maritime industry, particularly in the context of
global trade, maritime policy, and the management of ports and shipping companies.
The second group of participants includes three lecturers who have expertise in maritime
science and vocational training programs for seafarers. These educators not only possess
deep knowledge in their respective fields but also have experience in integrating
interdisciplinary approaches, such as international relations, into their teaching and
research. Their perspectives provide valuable insights into how current educational
practices address (or fail to address) the broader geopolitical, economic, and
environmental issues shaping the maritime sector. Additionally, they can offer reflections
on the challenges and opportunities involved in incorporating international relations into
the curriculum, especially in vocational education settings.
The third group comprises four graduates who have applied their skills and knowledge in
international port offices, global maritime companies, and other maritime-related
industries. Their experiences in the industry provide a real-world perspective on how well
their vocational education has prepared them for the challenges of the maritime industry,
particularly in dealing with global issues and the interplay between various international
relations dimensions. These graduates offer a unique viewpoint on the effectiveness of
maritime education in preparing professionals to engage with the multifaceted issues
confronting the maritime sector today.
JANUS.NET, e-journal of International Relations
e-ISSN: 1647-7251
VOL. 16, Nº. 2
November 2025-April 2026, pp. 57-76
Integrating International Relations into Maritime Vocational Education: Enhancing Global
Competence in the Industry
Marudut Bernadtua Simanjuntak
65
Each participant group will be interviewed individually to gather detailed and personal
accounts of their experiences. The interviews will be conducted in person or through
virtual platforms, depending on the availability and preferences of the participants
(Creswell & Clark, 2011; Padgett, 2016; Weinsheimer, 1985; Weisberg, 2016). The
questions will focus on the participants' perspectives on the importance of international
relations in the maritime industry, the integration of these perspectives into vocational
education, the role of sustainability and digitalization, and their views on the future of
maritime education. The interviews will be recorded (with participants' consent) and
transcribed verbatim for analysis.
Data analysis will be conducted using thematic analysis, a widely used technique in
qualitative research. Thematic analysis involves identifying, analyzing, and reporting
patterns (or themes) within the data. It is particularly effective for interpreting complex
data and drawing out meanings from participants' responses. The process of thematic
analysis will involve several steps: familiarization with the data, coding the data,
generating themes, reviewing and refining the themes, and interpreting the findings.
Thematic analysis allows for flexibility in analyzing both explicit and implicit meanings
within the interviews, providing a rich and detailed understanding of the participants'
perspectives.
A key advantage of thematic analysis is its ability to provide insights into the underlying
attitudes, beliefs, and values that shape participants' experiences. In this research,
thematic analysis will help identify key themes related to the integration of international
relations in maritime vocational education, such as the importance of understanding
global trade dynamics, the challenges of incorporating sustainability into training, and
the role of digital technologies in shaping the future of maritime education. The analysis
will also help to identify gaps in current educational practices and highlight areas where
improvements are needed.
The rationale for using qualitative research and semi-structured interviews lies in the
research's aim to explore subjective experiences and insights. This method allows for the
capture of diverse perspectives from professionals, educators, and graduates, offering a
comprehensive view of how international relations and other interdisciplinary approaches
can be integrated into maritime vocational education. Additionally, qualitative methods
provide the flexibility needed to adapt to the unique contexts and experiences of each
participant, enabling the research to uncover rich, contextually grounded findings.
The chosen research method—qualitative research using semi-structured interviews and
thematic analysis—provides the depth, flexibility, and contextual relevance needed to
explore the integration of international relations in maritime vocational education. This
approach is well-suited to capturing the nuanced perspectives of maritime professionals,
educators, and graduates, enabling a comprehensive understanding of the challenges,
opportunities, and potential solutions for enhancing maritime education in the face of
global, technological, and environmental changes. The findings from this research will
contribute valuable insights into how vocational training can evolve to meet the demands
of the global maritime industry.
JANUS.NET, e-journal of International Relations
e-ISSN: 1647-7251
VOL. 16, Nº. 2
November 2025-April 2026, pp. 57-76
Integrating International Relations into Maritime Vocational Education: Enhancing Global
Competence in the Industry
Marudut Bernadtua Simanjuntak
66
Results
This section presents the findings derived from the qualitative data analysis conducted
on the perspectives and experiences of maritime professionals, educators, and
graduates. The data analysis is organized according to the key indicators, which are
based on the integration of international relations approaches in maritime vocational
education. These indicators are used to evaluate the effectiveness, efficiency, and
productivity of international and global collaboration within maritime education and
training. The analysis utilizes a scoring system, and the results are visualized through
tables and descriptive interpretation.
Overview of the Indicators and Scoring
The research focused on five primary indicators that reflect the effectiveness of
integrating international relations perspectives into maritime education and training.
These indicators are as follows:
1. International Relations Integration in Curriculum: The extent to which international
relations theories and practices are embedded in maritime training curricula.
2. Global and Regional Collaboration in Maritime Education: The effectiveness of
partnerships between maritime educational institutions, international bodies, and the
industry.
3. Digitalization and Technological Innovation in Maritime Education: The degree to
which digital tools, platforms, and technologies are used to enhance maritime
education and collaboration.
4. Sustainability and Environmental Awareness in Maritime Training: The focus on
sustainability practices and environmental consciousness within the maritime
curriculum.
5. Practical Application of Learning in Global Maritime Industry: The effectiveness of the
vocational education in preparing graduates for real-world challenges in global
maritime industries.
Each of these indicators is assessed on a scale of 1 to 10, where 1 represents the lowest
level of effectiveness and 10 represents the highest level of effectiveness. The overall
score for each indicator was determined by analyzing the responses from maritime
professionals, educators, and graduates.
Indicator 1: International Relations Integration in Curriculum
The integration of international relations perspectives into the maritime curriculum was
evaluated based on the responses of educators and maritime professionals who were
interviewed. The results show that while there is an awareness of the need to incorporate
international relations into maritime education, the integration is still in its early stages.
a. Educators' Perspectives: Three educators mentioned that while international
relations is occasionally discussed in certain modules, such as in global trade and
JANUS.NET, e-journal of International Relations
e-ISSN: 1647-7251
VOL. 16, Nº. 2
November 2025-April 2026, pp. 57-76
Integrating International Relations into Maritime Vocational Education: Enhancing Global
Competence in the Industry
Marudut Bernadtua Simanjuntak
67
maritime policy courses, it is not consistently incorporated across all courses. The
integration often depends on the individual instructor’s expertise and willingness to
include global political, economic, and environmental factors.
b. Maritime Professionals' Perspectives: Professionals working in international shipping
and port management indicated that understanding international relations is crucial
to navigating global trade, regulations, and maritime security. However, they
expressed concern that the curriculum does not adequately prepare students for the
dynamic political and economic realities of global maritime operations.
Table 1. Scoring for International Relations Integration in Curriculum
Indicator
Educators'
Responses (1-
10)
Maritime Professionals'
Responses (1-10)
Average
Score
International Relations
Integration in Curriculum
6/10
7/10
6.5/10
The scoring of 6.5/10 reflects a recognition of the need for greater integration of
international relations into the curriculum but also highlights the gaps that exist. This
suggests a moderate level of effectiveness in the current integration, with room for
improvement in terms of consistency across programs and courses.
Indicator 2: Global and Regional Collaboration in Maritime Education
The second indicator assessed the level of collaboration between maritime educational
institutions, international organizations, and the global maritime industry. Respondents
pointed to both positive developments and significant challenges in this area.
a. Educators' Perspectives: Several educators mentioned that their institutions have
partnerships with international maritime organizations and universities. However,
these collaborations are often limited to specific research projects or short-term
exchanges rather than long-term, structured partnerships. Many educators also
pointed out that while regional collaborations are growing, global partnerships
remain limited due to logistical, financial, and political barriers.
b. Maritime Professionals' Perspectives: Maritime professionals involved in shipping and
port management indicated that global collaboration in the sector has significantly
enhanced operational efficiency and sustainability. They pointed out that
partnerships with international bodies such as the International Maritime
Organization (IMO) and regional port authorities have helped improve industry
standards, but there is still a need for greater collaboration in educational initiatives.
JANUS.NET, e-journal of International Relations
e-ISSN: 1647-7251
VOL. 16, Nº. 2
November 2025-April 2026, pp. 57-76
Integrating International Relations into Maritime Vocational Education: Enhancing Global
Competence in the Industry
Marudut Bernadtua Simanjuntak
68
Table 2. Scoring for Global and Regional Collaboration in Maritime Education
Indicator
Educators'
Responses (1-
10)
Maritime Professionals'
Responses (1-10)
Average
Score
Global and Regional
Collaboration in Maritime
Education
6/10
8/10
7/10
The average score of 7/10 reflects a more positive outlook on the role of collaboration,
particularly from maritime professionals who directly benefit from these partnerships.
Educators, however, identified challenges in extending these collaborations to the
broader educational structure. Therefore, while collaboration exists, it is not as
widespread or impactful as it could be.
Indicator 3: Digitalization and Technological Innovation in Maritime
Education
The integration of digital tools and technologies into maritime education was a key focus,
as digitalization plays an increasingly important role in both the operation of the maritime
industry and its training programs.
a. Educators' Perspectives: Many educators highlighted the increasing use of simulation
software, online platforms, and digital resources to teach maritime students. However,
some noted that while digitalization is present, it is often used in isolated pockets and
is not fully integrated into the broader curriculum. There is also a significant gap in
the availability of advanced digital tools in less-developed maritime education
institutions.
b. Maritime Professionals' Perspectives: Professionals in the field emphasized that
digitalization has transformed the maritime industry, from navigation technologies and
automated systems to digital platforms for managing supply chains. They
acknowledged that while maritime education has made progress, there is still a
significant gap in training students to handle advanced technologies such as
autonomous vessels, blockchain, and artificial intelligence in maritime logistics.
Table 3. Scoring for Digitalization and Technological Innovation in Maritime Education
Indicator
Educators'
Responses (1-
10)
Maritime
Professionals'
Responses (1-10)
Average
Score
Digitalization and
Technological Innovation in
Maritime Education
6/10
7/10
6.5/10
The average score of 6.5/10 reveals that digitalization is a growing trend in maritime
education but is still far from being fully integrated into all aspects of training. There is a
recognition that while technology is critical for the future of maritime operations,
JANUS.NET, e-journal of International Relations
e-ISSN: 1647-7251
VOL. 16, Nº. 2
November 2025-April 2026, pp. 57-76
Integrating International Relations into Maritime Vocational Education: Enhancing Global
Competence in the Industry
Marudut Bernadtua Simanjuntak
69
educational institutions are not fully equipped to provide students with the skills needed
to handle the most advanced digital technologies in the sector.
Indicator 4: Sustainability and Environmental Awareness in Maritime
Training
Sustainability and environmental awareness are increasingly important in the maritime
sector, particularly as the industry faces mounting pressure to reduce its environmental
footprint.
a. Educators' Perspectives: Educators reported that sustainability is gradually being
incorporated into maritime curricula, especially in the context of environmental
regulations and the need for green technologies in shipping. However, many
respondents noted that sustainability is often treated as an isolated topic rather than
being integrated across the entire curriculum. There is also a tendency to focus on
compliance with international regulations rather than fostering a deeper
understanding of sustainable practices.
b. Maritime Professionals' Perspectives: Maritime professionals emphasized that
sustainability is a top priority for the industry, especially in light of stricter
environmental regulations and the push for carbon-neutral shipping. They noted that
while education on sustainability is valuable, more emphasis needs to be placed on
practical, hands-on training in sustainable technologies and practices.
Table 4. Scoring for Sustainability and Environmental Awareness in Maritime Training
Indicator
Educators'
Responses (1-
10)
Maritime
Professionals'
Responses (1-10)
Average
Score
Sustainability and
Environmental Awareness in
Maritime Training
7/10
8/10
7.5/10
The average score of 7.5/10 reflects a fairly positive view of the integration of
sustainability into maritime training. Both educators and professionals agree on the
importance of environmental awareness, though there is a consensus that more
emphasis is needed on practical applications rather than theoretical knowledge.
Indicator 5: Practical Application of Learning in Global Maritime Industry
The final indicator assessed how well maritime vocational education prepares students
for real-world challenges in the global maritime industry.
a. Educators' Perspectives: Educators acknowledged that while practical training is a
core component of maritime education, there is a gap between what is taught in the
classroom and the rapidly changing realities of the global maritime industry. They
JANUS.NET, e-journal of International Relations
e-ISSN: 1647-7251
VOL. 16, Nº. 2
November 2025-April 2026, pp. 57-76
Integrating International Relations into Maritime Vocational Education: Enhancing Global
Competence in the Industry
Marudut Bernadtua Simanjuntak
70
suggested that more field-based experiences, internships, and industry partnerships
are necessary to better prepare students for global maritime operations.
b. Maritime Professionals' Perspectives: Maritime professionals emphasized the
importance of hands-on experience in the maritime industry. They noted that while
vocational education provides a solid technical foundation, there is a need for more
exposure to real-world situations, such as dealing with international trade disputes,
managing cross-cultural teams, and using advanced technologies in global logistics.
Table 5. Scoring for Practical Application of Learning in Global Maritime Industry
Indicator
Educators'
Responses (1-
10)
Maritime Professionals'
Responses (1-10)
Average
Score
Practical Application of
Learning in Global Maritime
Industry
7/10
8/10
7.5/10
The average score of 7.5/10 suggests that while there is a solid foundation of practical
training, there is room for improvement in ensuring that students are fully prepared for
the challenges of a globalized maritime industry. The emphasis on internships, industry
collaborations, and exposure to real-world scenarios is seen as essential for bridging this
gap.
Discussion
This research provides valuable insights into the integration of international relations (IR)
perspectives into maritime vocational education. The findings reflect both the progress
and challenges associated with incorporating these perspectives into training programs
that aim to equip maritime professionals with the knowledge and skills required for
navigating the increasingly complex global maritime landscape. In this discussion, we
will explore the significance of the findings, compare them with existing research, identify
the limitations of the study, and suggest avenues for future research.
Significance of the Findings
The primary significance of this research lies in its exploration of how international
relations, a multi-dimensional field, can enrich and expand maritime vocational
education. As global trade becomes more interconnected and the maritime sector faces
new challenges such as sustainability, digitalization, and geopolitical shifts, it is crucial
that maritime education reflects the broader context in which the industry operates. The
findings of this study suggest that while there is recognition of the importance of
international relations in the maritime sector, its full integration into vocational education
remains incomplete.
International Relations in the Curriculum: The finding that the integration of international
relations into maritime curricula is inconsistent is both significant and revealing. While
JANUS.NET, e-journal of International Relations
e-ISSN: 1647-7251
VOL. 16, Nº. 2
November 2025-April 2026, pp. 57-76
Integrating International Relations into Maritime Vocational Education: Enhancing Global
Competence in the Industry
Marudut Bernadtua Simanjuntak
71
there are isolated efforts to incorporate IR perspectives, particularly in global trade and
maritime policy courses, the overall lack of systematic and thorough integration reflects
a gap in education systems. This gap is important because it suggests that while
educators acknowledge the importance of these broader global perspectives, the existing
curriculum has yet to adapt comprehensively to the evolving needs of the maritime
industry. International relations—especially in its political, economic, and environmental
dimensions—are central to understanding the complex and ever-changing global
maritime environment. By incorporating these perspectives into the curriculum, maritime
institutions would not only enhance the technical skills of their students but also equip
them with the necessary knowledge to navigate the political and economic intricacies of
international maritime operations.
Collaboration and Global Engagement: The research reveals that global and regional
collaborations in maritime education are still in the early stages of development. While
partnerships with international maritime organizations and universities are increasingly
common, they tend to be short-term or project-specific rather than integrated into the
broader educational framework. This finding highlights an area that is ripe for
development. Stronger and more sustained collaboration between maritime educational
institutions, industry bodies, and international organizations would likely facilitate the
exchange of knowledge, research, and best practices, fostering a more holistic and well-
rounded maritime education system. The lack of widespread global engagement in
vocational training programs could limit students' exposure to international maritime
practices and issues, which are critical in an era of globalization.
Digitalization and Technological Innovation: The findings also underscore the gap
between technological advancements in the maritime industry and the application of
these advancements in educational settings. While digital tools, simulation software, and
online platforms are increasingly used in maritime training, the lack of integration of
cutting-edge technologies like autonomous vessels, blockchain, and artificial intelligence
into educational curricula highlights a major discrepancy. The maritime industry itself is
rapidly evolving with these technologies, and it is imperative that training programs keep
pace with these developments. Ensuring that students are adequately prepared to work
with these innovations is crucial for their future success and for the overall
competitiveness of the industry.
Sustainability and Environmental Awareness: Another critical finding is the recognition of
the importance of sustainability and environmental awareness in the maritime sector.
While there is increasing acknowledgment of the importance of green technologies and
environmental regulations, sustainability education often remains confined to specific
courses or topics. This fragmented approach is not sufficient in addressing the full scope
of sustainability challenges that the maritime sector faces. The maritime industry is a
major contributor to global carbon emissions, and its transition to more sustainable
practices is not just a matter of compliance with international regulations but a crucial
factor for its long-term viability. Integrating sustainability across all aspects of maritime
education would equip future professionals with the knowledge and skills needed to drive
this transition forward.
Practical Application of Learning: The research also suggests that maritime vocational
education does provide a strong technical foundation but lacks sufficient practical, real-
JANUS.NET, e-journal of International Relations
e-ISSN: 1647-7251
VOL. 16, Nº. 2
November 2025-April 2026, pp. 57-76
Integrating International Relations into Maritime Vocational Education: Enhancing Global
Competence in the Industry
Marudut Bernadtua Simanjuntak
72
world exposure to the challenges that graduates will face in the global maritime industry.
Although students may acquire the necessary theoretical knowledge, there is a gap when
it comes to hands-on experience in global maritime operations, especially in areas such
as international trade management, cross-cultural communication, and the use of
advanced technologies. The need for more internships, industry partnerships, and field-
based training is evident, as these experiences allow students to apply their learning in
real-world settings, bridging the gap between theory and practice.
Comparison with Existing Research
When comparing these findings to existing research in the field of maritime education
and international relations, several trends emerge that are both consistent with and
divergent from previous studies. Much of the existing literature highlights the importance
of incorporating international relations and global perspectives into maritime education,
but like this research, it also identifies significant barriers to full integration (Demirel,
2020; Fitriani et al., 2023; Kidd & McCarthy, 2019). Research has consistently pointed
to the slow pace of curriculum development in response to the rapidly changing global
maritime environment. Many maritime institutions still focus primarily on technical skills
and regulatory compliance, with limited attention paid to the broader geopolitical,
economic, and environmental factors that shape the industry. This aligns with the
findings of this study, which revealed that while international relations is acknowledged,
its incorporation into the curriculum remains fragmented and inconsistent.
The findings also echo broader trends in higher education, particularly in vocational
training, where there is a persistent gap between technological advancements and
educational practices. Previous studies have highlighted the challenge of integrating
cutting-edge technologies such as digital simulation tools, autonomous vessels, and
blockchain into maritime education. This research similarly found that while some
educational institutions are embracing these technologies, there is a significant lag in
equipping students with the skills needed to operate in a highly digitalized maritime
industry. In terms of sustainability, existing research has emphasized the growing
importance of environmental awareness in maritime training (Balkin, 2006; Chircop,
2015; Zavalniuk et al., 2021). While regulations such as the International Maritime
Organization’s (IMO) greenhouse gas emissions standards are well-known within the
industry, many educational institutions are still struggling to embed sustainability into
their curricula in a comprehensive and impactful way. This study supports that view,
noting that sustainability is often treated as an isolated topic rather than an overarching
principle that should inform all aspects of maritime education.
Limitations of the Study
While this research provides valuable insights, there are several limitations that must be
acknowledged. First, the sample size of the study was relatively small, consisting of only
three educators, three maritime professionals, and four graduates. This limited sample
size may not fully represent the diversity of perspectives within the maritime education
and professional community. A larger sample size would likely provide a more
JANUS.NET, e-journal of International Relations
e-ISSN: 1647-7251
VOL. 16, Nº. 2
November 2025-April 2026, pp. 57-76
Integrating International Relations into Maritime Vocational Education: Enhancing Global
Competence in the Industry
Marudut Bernadtua Simanjuntak
73
comprehensive view of the current state of maritime education and the integration of
international relations perspectives. Second, the study focused solely on vocational
programs, and the findings may not be generalizable to other types of maritime
education, such as undergraduate or graduate programs. Vocational education programs,
which are more focused on practical skills and less on academic theory, may face unique
challenges in integrating interdisciplinary subjects such as international relations. Future
research could examine how international relations is incorporated into higher-level
maritime education programs, where there may be greater flexibility to explore
interdisciplinary topics.
Another limitation is the reliance on qualitative methods, which, while offering deep
insights, may not always capture the full breadth of perspectives within the maritime
sector. The study’s use of semi-structured interviews provides rich data, but it is based
on the perceptions and experiences of a small group of participants. Further research
using quantitative methods, such as surveys, could help corroborate the findings and
provide a more generalizable understanding of the state of international relations
integration in maritime education.
Suggestions for Future Research
Building on the findings and limitations of this study, there are several directions for
future research. One important avenue is to explore the barriers and challenges that
maritime educational institutions face when attempting to integrate international
relations into their curricula. Understanding the institutional, financial, and logistical
hurdles to such integration will provide valuable insights for policymakers, educational
leaders, and industry stakeholders who seek to enhance maritime education. Future
research could also focus on the impact of greater integration of international relations
on students’ learning outcomes and career readiness. Longitudinal studies that track
graduates’ careers over time could provide evidence of how well students are able to
apply the global perspectives learned in their education to their professional roles in the
maritime industry. This would help demonstrate the long-term value of incorporating
international relations into vocational training.
Another area for future research is the exploration of digitalization in maritime education,
particularly with regard to emerging technologies such as autonomous vessels, artificial
intelligence, and blockchain. Future studies could investigate how educational institutions
are preparing students to work with these technologies and whether there are gaps in
training that need to be addressed. Lastly, as sustainability continues to be a major focus
of the maritime industry, future research should investigate how educational institutions
can more effectively integrate environmental sustainability into maritime curricula. This
could include the development of new models for teaching sustainability, as well as
research on how to ensure that students are equipped with the practical skills needed to
implement green technologies and comply with international environmental standards.
The findings of this research suggest that while maritime vocational education is making
progress in integrating international relations perspectives, significant gaps remain. The
challenges of incorporating global political, economic, strategic, and environmental
factors into training programs reflect broader issues within maritime education, which
JANUS.NET, e-journal of International Relations
e-ISSN: 1647-7251
VOL. 16, Nº. 2
November 2025-April 2026, pp. 57-76
Integrating International Relations into Maritime Vocational Education: Enhancing Global
Competence in the Industry
Marudut Bernadtua Simanjuntak
74
continues to emphasize technical skills over interdisciplinary knowledge. Nevertheless,
the growing recognition of these gaps provides an opportunity for reform. By expanding
international collaboration, embracing digital technologies, and prioritizing sustainability,
maritime education can better prepare students for the challenges and opportunities of
a globalized and rapidly changing industry. Future research should continue to explore
these issues, providing further insights into how maritime education can evolve to meet
the demands of the 21st-century maritime industry.
Conclusion
This research highlights the growing importance of integrating international relations
perspectives into maritime vocational education, emphasizing the need to address
political, economic, strategic, social, cultural, and environmental factors in training
programs. The findings reveal that while there are ongoing efforts to incorporate these
global perspectives, their integration remains inconsistent and fragmented across
maritime education curricula. Key areas such as digitalization, sustainability, and global
collaboration are still underdeveloped, with significant gaps in preparing students for the
challenges of a rapidly changing and interconnected global maritime industry. The
research indicates that although maritime vocational education provides strong technical
training, it lacks sufficient exposure to real-world global maritime operations and
interdisciplinary knowledge. Enhanced collaboration with international maritime
organizations, more internships, and field-based experiences are essential for bridging
the gap between theoretical learning and practical application. Furthermore, the full
integration of digital technologies and sustainability into curricula is necessary for
equipping future maritime professionals with the skills needed to navigate both
technological advancements and environmental challenges. This study provides a
foundation for further research on the barriers and opportunities for improving the
incorporation of international relations into maritime education. By addressing these
gaps, maritime education can better prepare students for the complexities of the global
maritime industry, ensuring the long-term sustainability and competitiveness of the
sector in an increasingly interconnected world.
References
Albayrak, T., & Ziarati, R. (2012). Encouraging research in maritime education & training.
Journal of Maritime Transport and Engineering, 1(1), 4–9.
Balkin, R. (2006). The international maritime organization and maritime security. Tul.
Mar. LJ, 30, 1.
Baylon, A. M., & Santos, V. (2011). The challenges in Philippine maritime education and
training. International Journal of Innovative Interdisciplinary Research, 1(1), 34–43.
Chen, X., Bai, X., & Xiao, Y. (2017). The application of E-learning in maritime education
and training in China. TransNav: International Journal on Marine Navigation and Safety
of Sea Transportation, 11(2), 349–354.
Chircop, A. (2015). The international maritime organization.
JANUS.NET, e-journal of International Relations
e-ISSN: 1647-7251
VOL. 16, Nº. 2
November 2025-April 2026, pp. 57-76
Integrating International Relations into Maritime Vocational Education: Enhancing Global
Competence in the Industry
Marudut Bernadtua Simanjuntak
75
Christodoulou-Varotsi, I., & Pentsov, D. A. (2008). The STCW Convention and related
instruments. Maritime Work Law Fundamentals: Responsible Shipowners, Reliable
Seafarers, 422–639.
Collier, M. J. (2015). Intercultural communication competence: Continuing challenges
and critical directions. International Journal of Intercultural Relations, 48, 9–11.
Comtois, C., & Slack, B. (2017). Sustainable development and corporate strategies of
the maritime industry. In Ports, Cities, and Global Supply Chains (pp. 249–262).
Routledge.
Creswell, J. W., & Clark, V. L. P. (2011). Choosing a mixed methods design. In Designing
and Conducting Mixed Methods Research (pp. 53–106). Sage Publications, Inc.
Demirel, E. (2020). Maritime education and training in the digital era. Universal Journal
of Educational Research.
Fitriani, R., Febriyani, S. D., Pratama, G., Andika, K., Aprilla, R., Nurfajrina, R.,
Suherman, D. S., & Ritonga, A. F. (2023). The Influence Of Maritime Education Through
Project Based Learning-A Review. BIO Web of Conferences, 79, 2004.
Gavalas, D., Syriopoulos, T., & Roumpis, E. (2022). Digital adoption and efficiency in the
maritime industry. Journal of Shipping and Trade, 7(1), 11.
House, D., & Saeed, F. (2016). The seamanship examiner: for STCW certification
examinations. Taylor & Francis.
Katz, J. (2015). A theory of qualitative methodology: The social system of analytic
fieldwork. Méthod (e) s: African Review of Social Sciences Methodology, 1(1–2), 131–
146.
Kidd, R., & McCarthy, E. (2019). Maritime education in the age of autonomy. WIT
Transactions on The Built Environment, 187, 221–230.
Kim, J.-K., & Park, S.-H. (2019). A Study on Improvement of Maritime Education by
Aging Seamen. Journal of the Korean Society of Marine Environment & Safety, 25(7),
874–880.
Laghari, A. A., Wu, K., Laghari, R. A., Ali, M., & Khan, A. A. (2021). A review and state
of art of Internet of Things (IoT). Archives of Computational Methods in Engineering, 1–
19.
Lau, Y., & Ng, A. K. Y. (2015). The motivations and expectations of students pursuing
maritime education. WMU Journal of Maritime Affairs, 14, 313–331.
Martin, J. N. (2015). Revisiting intercultural communication competence: Where to go
from here. International Journal of Intercultural Relations, 48, 6–8.
Merriam, S. B., & Grenier, R. S. (2019). Qualitative research in practice: Examples for
discussion and analysis. John Wiley & Sons.
Padgett, D. K. (2016). Qualitative methods in social work research (Vol. 36). Sage
publications.
Pallis, P. L. (2017). Port risk management in container terminals. Transportation
Research Procedia, 25, 4411–4421.
JANUS.NET, e-journal of International Relations
e-ISSN: 1647-7251
VOL. 16, Nº. 2
November 2025-April 2026, pp. 57-76
Integrating International Relations into Maritime Vocational Education: Enhancing Global
Competence in the Industry
Marudut Bernadtua Simanjuntak
76
Paulica, A., Radu, H.-P., Mednikarov, B., & Kalinov, K. (2013). ENHANCING
MANAGEMENT CAPACITY OF THE MARITIME INDUSTRY PERSONNEL. Analele Universitatii
Maritime Constanta, 14(19).
Plaza-Hernández, M., Gil-González, A. B., Rodríguez-González, S., Prieto-Tejedor, J., &
Corchado-Rodríguez, J. M. (2021). Integration of IoT technologies in the maritime
industry. Distributed Computing and Artificial Intelligence, Special Sessions, 17th
International Conference, 107–115.
Ploum, L., Blok, V., Lans, T., & Omta, O. (2017). Toward a Validated Competence
Framework for Sustainable Entrepreneurship. Organization & Environment, 31(2), 113–
132. https://doi.org/10.1177/1086026617697039
Pu, S., & Lam, J. S. L. (2021). Blockchain adoptions in the maritime industry: a
conceptual framework. Maritime Policy & Management, 48(6), 777–794.
Roesler, V., Barrére, E., & Willrich, R. (2020). Special topics in multimedia, IoT and web
technologies. Springer.
Saldana, J. (2014). Thinking qualitatively: Methods of mind. SAGE publications.
Toriia, T. G., Epikhin, A. I., Panchenko, S. V, & Modina, M. A. (2023). Modern educational
trends in the maritime industry. SHS Web of Conferences, 164, 60.
Tvedt, S., Oltedal, H., Batalden, B. M., & Oliveira, M. (2018). Way-finding on-board
training for maritime vessels. Entertainment Computing, 26, 30–40.
https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1016/j.entcom.2018.01.002
Ware, P. (2017). Technology, New Literacies, and Language Learners. In The Handbook
of Technology and Second Language Teaching and Learning (pp. 265–277).
https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1002/9781118914069.ch18
Weinsheimer, J. (1985). Gadamer’s Hermeneutics A Reading of Truth and Method.
Weisberg, D. J. (2016). Methods and Strategies in Using Digital Literacy in Media and the
Arts. In Advances in Media, Entertainment, and the Arts (pp. 456–471). IGI Global.
https://doi.org/10.4018/978-1-4666-9667-9.ch022
Wu, G., Liu, C., Zhao, X., & Zuo, J. (2017). Investigating the relationship between
communication-conflict interaction and project success among construction project
teams. International Journal of Project Management, 35(8), 1466–1482.
Young, C. (1995). Comprehensive Revision of the STCW convention: an overview. J. Mar.
L. & Com., 26, 1.
Zaderei, A. (2020). Ensuring the sustainability of the human resources management
system of maritime industry enterprises. Access: Access to Science, Business, Innovation
in Digital Economy, 1(2), 146–156.
Zavalniuk, O., Nesterenko, V., Zavakniuk, I., & Doshchenko, H. (2021). A key component
of continuing professional development in the maritime context.
https://doi.org/10.21677/imla2021.01
OBSERVARE
Universidade Autónoma de Lisboa
e-ISSN: 1647-7251
VOL. 16, Nº. 2
November 2025-April 2026
77
TAIWAN AND INTERNATIONAL ORGANIZATIONS IN US-CHINA COMPETITION
ANTONINA ŁUSZCZYKIEWICZ-MENDIS
antonina.luszczykiewicz@uj.edu.pl
She is a former Fulbright senior scholar at Indiana University Bloomington (United States of
America), is currently a visiting scholar at the University of Oxford China Centre. She was the
founding director of the Taiwan Lab research center at the Jagiellonian University in Kraków,
where she serves as an assistant professor. She is former Taiwan fellows of the Ministry of
Foreign Affairs, ROC (Taiwan). She published many articles and lectured at various universities
and institutions in China, Poland, Taiwan, the United Kingdom, and the United States, among
others. More detais at https://antoninaluszczykiewicz.wordpress.com/
PATRICK MENDIS
patrickmendis@alumni.harvard.edu
He is a presidential advisor on national security education in the US Department of Defense and a
distinguished visiting professor of transatlantic relations at the University of Warsaw (Poland). A
former American diplomat and military professor at NATO and the Indo-Pacific Command during
the Clinton, Bush, and Obama administrations, he also served as an American commissioner to
UNESCO at the US Department of State and the inaugural Taiwan chair and distinguished visiting
professor of international relations at the Jagiellonian University in Kraków, Poland. He is former
Taiwan fellows of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, ROC (Taiwan). He published many articles and
lectured at various universities and institutions in China, Poland, Taiwan, the United Kingdom,
and the United States, among others. More details at https://patrickmendis.com
Abstract
Taiwan (the Republic of China, ROC) has become a focal point of international security in the
ongoing US–China competition. China (the People’s Republic of China, PRC) has increasingly
sought to isolate the Taipei administration from the global community by restricting its access
to international organizations and reducing the number of its diplomatic allies. This article
explores the effectiveness of the United States in counterbalancing China’s coercive actions
against Taiwan in international organizations. It further examines the historical evolution and
future prospects of Taiwan’s international presence—particularly the role of diplomatic
language and interpretive maneuvering surrounding UN General Assembly Resolution 2758,
as well as Beijing’s promotion of its “One China Principle” in contrast to the more ambiguous
“One China Policy” adopted by many countries. Drawing on a close examination of historical
and contemporary government documents from China, Taiwan, the United States, and the
United Nations, this study investigates the international political and economic narratives
advanced by these governments and UN bodies. Ultimately, it assesses the strategies of the
United States and the ROC in seeking “meaningful participation” for Taiwan within the UN
system and beyond.
Keywords
China, Taiwan, the United States, the United Nations, meaningful participation, international
organizations.
JANUS.NET, e-journal of International Relations
e-ISSN: 1647-7251
VOL. 16, Nº. 2
November 2025-April 2026, pp. 77-95
Taiwan and International Organizations in US-China Competition
Antonina Łuszczykiewicz-Mendis, Patrick Mendis
78
Resumo
Taiwan (República da China) tornou-se um ponto focal da segurança internacional na
competição em curso entre os EUA e a China. A China (República Popular da China, RPC) tem
procurado cada vez mais isolar a administração de Taipé em relação à comunidade global,
restringindo o seu acesso a organizações internacionais e reduzindo o número de seus aliados
diplomáticos. Este artigo explora a eficácia dos Estados Unidos em contrabalançar as ações
coercivas da China contra Taiwan nas organizações internacionais. Além disso, examina a
evolução histórica e as perspetivas futuras da presença internacional de Taiwan —
particularmente o papel da linguagem diplomática e das manobras interpretativas em torno
da Resolução 2758 da Assembleia Geral da ONU, bem como a promoção de Pequim do seu
«Princípio de Uma Só China», em contraste com a mais ambígua «Política de Uma Só China»
adotada por muitos países. Com base numa análise aprofundada de documentos
governamentais históricos e contemporâneos da China, Taiwan, Estados Unidos e Nações
Unidas, este estudo analisa as narrativas políticas e económicas internacionais avançadas por
esses governos e órgãos da ONU. Por fim, avalia as estratégias dos Estados Unidos e da
República da China na busca de uma «participação significativa» para Taiwan dentro do
sistema da ONU e além dele.
Palavras-chave
China, Taiwan, Estados Unidos, Nações Unidas, participação significativa, organizações
internacionais.
How to cite this article
Łuszczykiewicz-Mendis, Antonina & Mendis, Patrick (2025). Taiwan and International Organizations
in US-China Competition. Janus.net, e-journal of international relations. VOL. 16, Nº. 2, November
2025-April 2026, pp. 77-95. DOI https://doi.org/10.26619/1647-7251.16.2.5
Article received on 16th July 2025 and accepted for publication on 8th September 2025.
JANUS.NET, e-journal of International Relations
e-ISSN: 1647-7251
VOL. 16, Nº. 2
November 2025-April 2026, pp. 77-95
Taiwan and International Organizations in US-China Competition
Antonina Łuszczykiewicz-Mendis, Patrick Mendis
79
TAIWAN AND INTERNATIONAL ORGANIZATIONS IN US-CHINA
COMPETITION
1
ANTONINA ŁUSZCZYKIEWICZ-MENDIS
PATRICK MENDIS
Introduction
The so-called “reunification” with Taiwan represents the ideological endgame of the
Communist Party of China (CPC). From the Party’s perspective, this would mark the
culmination of a long journey of national recovery, or “national rejuvenation,” following
the historical “Century of Humiliation” (The Taiwan Affairs Office of the State Council and
The State Council Information Office, People’s Republic of China, 2022). To that end,
China has steadily developed and intensified a coercive strategy towards Taiwan,
employing a combination of diplomatic, economic, military, and legal measures. This
strategy includes a sustained campaign to isolate Taiwan internationally by pressuring
other states and international organizations (IOs) to exclude the democratic, “self-ruled
island” (The Economist, 2025) from global platforms. These efforts reflect a broader
ambition not only to assert China’s territorial claims but also to challenge the existing
international order—making Taiwan a central issue in cross-Strait relations and a focal
point in the wider context of US–China strategic competition.
This article focuses on the Sino-American contention in the context of China’s
comprehensive and coercive anti-Taiwan strategy. The two authors examine Beijing’s
maneuvers which aim to promote the “One China Principle”—as opposed to the
ambiguous “One China Policy”—as well as to strip Taiwan of its remaining “diplomatic
allies” and exclude it from international organizations. Drawing on a close study of
historical and contemporary government documents, speeches, and statements from
China, Taiwan, the United States, and the United Nations (UN), the two scholars analyze
the counter-measures taken by the United States to help Taiwan stand up to China’s
pressure and (re)join or gain “meaningful participation” in a wide range of international
organizations. Finally, the article illustrates the consequences of China’s coercive actions
for Taiwan, the United States, and the international community—particularly the like-
minded democratic countries.
1
The views and opinions expressed in this paper are of the authors and they do not represent their affiliated
institutions or governments.
JANUS.NET, e-journal of International Relations
e-ISSN: 1647-7251
VOL. 16, Nº. 2
November 2025-April 2026, pp. 77-95
Taiwan and International Organizations in US-China Competition
Antonina Łuszczykiewicz-Mendis, Patrick Mendis
80
The Two Chinas?
The history of the “Taiwan issue” goes back to the times of the Chinese Civil War (1927-
49) between the nationalists headed by Generalissimo Chiang Kai‐shek and the
communists under the leadership of Chairman Mao Zedong. After a brief interlude for a
united front against Japan, the war ended with the victory of the communist forces and
the proclamation of the People’s Republic of China (PRC) on October 1, 1949. In early
December, Generalissimo Chiang and approximately two million Kuomintang (KMT)
soldiers evacuated to the island of Taiwan. Until his death in 1975, Chiang remained an
autocratic president of the Republic of China (ROC), whose jurisdiction shrank to the
islands of Taiwan (Formosa), Pescadores, Kinmen, Matsu, and several others. Since
1949, both governments in Beijing and Taipei have claimed that they are the only legal
representation of the whole of China. As a result, the Chinese civil war led to the de facto
creation of two Chinas—although both leaderships have categorically rejected such
narratives.
On the one side of the Taiwan Strait, President Chiang has never abandoned the pursuit
of retaking the mainland—thus, he developed a plan of invading the PRC known as the
Project National Glory, which was never executed. Today, however, the democratically
elected authorities of Taiwan do not actively claim their rights to the mainland.
Nonetheless, the ROC Constitution still, at least in theory, applies to pre-war China—later
amendments only introduced a division between the “Free Area,” i.e., the territories
under Taipei’s jurisdiction, and the “Mainland Area” (Laws and Regulations Database of
The Republic of China [Taiwan], 2005). In other words, the amended ROC Constitution
technically does not forsake ROC’s historical claim of sovereignty over the mainland.
On the other side of the Taiwan Strait, Beijing has maintained that Taiwan is a province
of the PRC. The so-called “reunification” has thus become one of the most important
elements of President Xi Jinping’s idea of the “Great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation”
(National Development and Reform Commission, People’s Republic of China, 2023). It
appears that the use of the term “reunification” in English is a deliberate narrative device
employed by Beijing, as the prefix “re-” suggests that the mainland and Formosa were
once united.
2
This framing implies that the PRC’s mission is merely to restore the status
quo ante bellum—that is, the situation prior to the Chinese Civil War (Łuszczykiewicz and
Mendis, 2023a, p. 41-42). It should be clarified, however, that for most part of its history,
the island of Taiwan had not been politically or legally a part of China—it was not until
1684 when Taiwan came under the rule of the Qing Dynasty (Trojnar, 2015, p. 44). This
lasted only till 1895, when China ceded Formosa and Pescadores to Japan “in perpetuity
and full sovereignty” (Denby, 1895). Furthermore, the Republic of China, established
after the fall of the Qing Dynasty in 1912, never ceased to exist—since 1949, the ROC
has simply continued to operate on the island of Taiwan.
To advance the so-called “reunification” mission, Beijing has consistently promoted its
narrative of the “One China Principle,” in contrast to the usually more ambiguous “One
China Policy.” According to Beijing officials, “there is but one China in the world, Taiwan
is an inalienable part of China’s territory, and the Government of the People’s Republic
of China is the sole legal government representing the whole of China” (The Mission of
2
However, in Chinese, the most commonly used term, 统一tongyi, means simply “unification” (Cody 2019).
JANUS.NET, e-journal of International Relations
e-ISSN: 1647-7251
VOL. 16, Nº. 2
November 2025-April 2026, pp. 77-95
Taiwan and International Organizations in US-China Competition
Antonina Łuszczykiewicz-Mendis, Patrick Mendis
81
the People’s Republic of China to the European Union, 2022). China has been insisting
on the adoption of this definition worldwide. To that end, it has promoted a narrative
according to which “One China Principle” is a globally accepted norm (Embassy of the
People’s Republic of China in the Republic of the Philippines, 2024). Indeed, there are
countries that have officially endorsed it; however, reportedly only 51 countries—not 180
as claimed by Beijing—adhere to its “One China Principle” (Yang and Hetherington,
2023).
One of the countries which coined its own definition of the “One China Policy” is the
United States: Washington recognizes the PRC as the sole legal government of China,
yet merely “acknowledges that all Chinese on either side of the Taiwan Strait maintain
there is but one China and that Taiwan is a part of China” (italics added for clarity and
emphasis) (Joint Communiqué of the United States of America and the People’s Republic
of China [Shanghai Communiqué], 1972). In other words, the United States does not
recognize Taiwan as a part of the PRC—it only confirms that Washington is aware of
Beijing’s claim (Green and Glaser, 2017). Some countries and organizations, however,
have never defined their “One China Policy”—such as the European Union (EU), which
has obligated all of its member-states to adhere to “One China Policy,” although it has
never clarified its meaning (Brown, 2022)
The major consequence of the PRC-ROC bifurcation is that other states may now
recognize—and maintain diplomatic relations with—only one government, i.e., either
Beijing or Taipei. The issue of dual representation has thus become a challenge to
international organizations.
The United Nations: Switching from Taipei to Beijing
In the aftermath of the World War II, the United Nations was established in October 1945
to prevent future conflicts, maintain international peace and security, and allow dialogue
among all countries regardless of their ideological or economic position. At the United
Nations Conference on International Organization, which took place in San Francisco
between April 25 and June 26, 1945, the ROC became one of the founding members of
the UN.
Interestingly, however, the PRC’s narratives in this regard seem to omit certain aspects
of China’s participation in the conference. The official website of the Foreign Ministry of
the PRC reads that “a founding member of the United Nations and one of the five
permanent members of the UN Security Council, China made important contributions to
the founding of the United Nations. In June 1945, the Chinese delegation, which included
Dong Biwu, a representative of the Communist Party of China, signed the Charter of the
United Nations” (Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the People’s Republic of China, n.d.).
Indeed, Representative Dong was a Communist Party member who signed the UN
Charter. The Foreign Ministry of the PRC did not clarify, however, that the “Chinese
delegation” was in fact the ROC delegation of Chiang Kai-shek’s representatives.
Reportedly, it was Washington that pressured the ROC leader to include a CPC member
in the UN delegation (Tang, 2016, p. 144).
For the next two decades, the representatives of the ROC were installed in the so-called
UN “China seat” (Carter, 2020). In other words, the PRC—established barely four years
JANUS.NET, e-journal of International Relations
e-ISSN: 1647-7251
VOL. 16, Nº. 2
November 2025-April 2026, pp. 77-95
Taiwan and International Organizations in US-China Competition
Antonina Łuszczykiewicz-Mendis, Patrick Mendis
82
after the San Francisco conference—did not have its representation in the UN for more
than 20 years.
With the so-called US-China “ping-pong diplomacy” and the gradual normalization of
Sino-American relations, the geopolitical situation changed diametrically in the 1970s.
The Beijing-Washington détente encouraged UN member-states to modify their position
on the Chinese representation at the United Nations and its associated bodies. In 1971,
the UN General Assembly considered a number of draft resolutions and proposed
amendments. The United States opted for dual representation, i.e., keeping a
representation for the ROC and granting a separate seat to the PRC at the same time
(Office of the Historian, US Department of State, 1973). Eventually, however, at its
plenary session on October 25, 1971, the UN adopted Resolution 2758 on the Restoration
of the Lawful Rights of the People’s Republic of China in the United Nations. It mandated
to restore all its rights to the People’s Republic of China and to recognize the
representatives of its Government as the only legitimate representatives of
China to the United Nations, and to expel forthwith the representatives of
Chiang Kai-shek from the place which they unlawfully occupy at the United
Nations and in all the organizations related to it (United Nations, 1971).
In short, the resolution placed Beijing in the “China seat” and removed the ROC
representation (Drun and Glaser, 2022, pp. 11-12). From now on, the delegation of the
PRC has been the only legitimate representation of China to the United Nations.
Soon after the end of the Cultural Revolution (1966-76) and China’s opening to the world
under President Deng Xiaoping, US President Jimmy Carter established diplomatic ties
with Beijing in 1979 (Mendis, 2021). By default, the Sino-American rapprochement
resulted in ceasing Washington’s official ties with Taipei. However, the United States
maintained unofficial interactions with Taiwan. Most importantly, Washington guaranteed
security of the ROC through the Taiwan Relations Act (TRA) of 1979, three US-China joint
communiqués of 1972, 1978, and 1982, and the Six Assurances (Mendis and Wang,
2020b).
It is important to highlight that the 1971 UN Resolution neither affirmed nor denied the
status of the Republic of China as a state. It did not even include the names “Republic of
China” or “Taiwan”—it only placed the PRC in the UN “China seat” (Mazza and Schmitt,
2021, p. 9). In the next decades, however, the Beijing government has linked the
resolution to its “One China Principle,” which states that Taiwan is part of the PRC. For
example, Chinese Minister of Foreign Affairs Wang Yi elaborated that the Resolution 2758
“resolved once and for all the representation of the whole of China, Taiwan included,
within the United Nations and expelled Taiwan’s so-called representatives from the United
Nations. It confirmed that Taiwan is a part of China, and also eliminated any room for
creating ‘two Chinas’ or ‘one China, one Taiwan’” (Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the
People’s Republic of China, 2022). The ROC has numerously condemned the PRC for
“intentionally misinterpreting” the 1971 UN resolution (Focus Taiwan, 2022).
JANUS.NET, e-journal of International Relations
e-ISSN: 1647-7251
VOL. 16, Nº. 2
November 2025-April 2026, pp. 77-95
Taiwan and International Organizations in US-China Competition
Antonina Łuszczykiewicz-Mendis, Patrick Mendis
83
Taiwan’s Shrinking Space on International Stage
Shortly after the proclamation of the PRC in 1949, only a few fellow communist states,
including the Soviet Union and its satellites, switched their recognition from the ROC to
the PRC. Over time, however, the numbers shifted—particularly after the 1971 UN
resolution and the establishment of official diplomatic relations between the United States
and China in 1979.
As of mid-2025, when the two authors submitted this article for publication, the number
of diplomatic allies of the ROC went down to 12. This small group consists of 11 UN
member-states and the Vatican City State (Mendis, 2020) (Liff and Lin, 2022). Among
the most recent twists, Honduras changed its diplomatic position in March 2023—
Tegucigalpa announced that from now on, it perceives Taiwan as an “inalienable part of
Chinese territory” (Lin, 2023). Presumably, Beijing’s trade and economic development
offer to the Mesoamerican state outbid the prospects given by Taiwan—as suggested by
President Tsai Ing-wen’s comment that the Taiwanese government would not “engage
in a meaningless contest of dollar diplomacy with China” (Office of the President,
Republic of China [Taiwan], 2023). More recently, a few days after presidential election
in Taiwan in January 2024, the ROC decided to sever diplomatic relations with the
Republic of Nauru upon learning that the Pacific island-nation intends to terminate its
diplomatic ties with Taipei in favor of Beijing.
China has tirelessly been trying to attract the remaining diplomatic allies of Taiwan.
In the early April 2021, Taiwan’s Foreign Minister Joseph Wu revealed that Beijing
was tempting Paraguay—Taiwan’s only “diplomatic ally” in South America—to cut
diplomatic ties with the ROC in exchange for millions of doses of China-made Covid-
19 vaccines. According to Wu, Taipei had been speaking to “like-minded countries”
to handle the South American issue as the spike in coronavirus cases resulted in
protests and calls for impeaching the Paraguayan president (Reuters, 2021). As
reported by Minister Wu, India provided Paraguay with its own COVAXIN vaccines at
the request of Taiwan; however, New Delhi denied it, claiming that it was a gift from
the Indian government without any involvement of a third party (Hindustan Times,
2021).
For Taiwan, each loss of an “ally” further shrinks its space on diplomatic stage. Similarly,
the number of states that may officially speak on behalf of Taiwan in the United Nations
is decreasing, and their voice is weakening. Without a doubt, stripping Taiwan of its
remaining diplomatic allies has become an important element of China’s comprehensive
isolation campaign against Taiwan, which led to the exclusion of the ROC from the UN in
1971 and, consequently, many other international organizations (Stokes, Sullivan, and
Durkee, 2022, p. 1).
China’s Anti-Taiwan Campaign in IOs
China’s pressure has severely impacted Taiwan’s ability to participate in a wide range of
IOs. Following the adoption of Resolution 2758 by the UN General Assembly, the
Taiwanese representation was soon removed from all UN agencies. In a domino effect, it
also led to Taiwan’s exclusion from many other IOs outside of the UN system. Notably,
however, the ROC was not expelled from those organizations at once in 1971. For
JANUS.NET, e-journal of International Relations
e-ISSN: 1647-7251
VOL. 16, Nº. 2
November 2025-April 2026, pp. 77-95
Taiwan and International Organizations in US-China Competition
Antonina Łuszczykiewicz-Mendis, Patrick Mendis
84
example, the Lyon-based International Criminal Police Organization (INTERPOL) took
another 13 years to remove the ROC representation following the adoption of the UN
resolution.
Moreover, Taiwan’s expulsion from the UN did not preclude its access to all international
organizations. The ROC has now a full membership in 45 intergovernmental organizations
and their subsidiary bodies such as the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC), the
World Organization of Animal Health, and the Central American Bank for Economic
Integration. Furthermore, Taiwan has an observer (or other) status in 29
intergovernmental organizations and their ancillary bodies—including the European Bank
for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) as well as the committees of the
Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) and the Central
American Integration System (Government Portal of the Republic of China [Taiwan],
n.d.).
Intriguingly, Taiwan has also been able to join some new IOs since 1971. Nevertheless,
the process has often been arduous and compromising, as Taipei authorities were often
forced to agree to use a name other than the “Republic of China.” The most well-known
case is the World Trade Organization (WTO), where Taiwan was included as the “Separate
Customs Territory of Taiwan, Penghu, Kinmen, and Matsu (Chinese Taipei)” in 2002—
barely 21 days after the PRC’s entry (Charnovitz, 2006, p. 405).
From the legal point of view, (re)joining the United Nations and its agencies is not a lost
cause for Taiwan. In recent years, the ROC authorities have been very active in their
efforts to (re)gain meaningful participation in the UN family of specialized agencies. It
should be clarified that many of them—like the World Health Organization (WHO), the
International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO), and the United Nations Educational,
Scientific and Cultural Organization (UNESCO)—do not require the UN membership to
join. Additionally, the statehood is a prerequisite in various agencies; however, the UN
Charter does not explain what it actually means to be a state (United Nations, 1945). It
is also crucial to observe that neither the 1971 Resolution, nor any other UN document
has defined the status of Taiwan.
Nonetheless, China seems to have been successfully blocking Taiwan’s attempts to
(re)join the UN system. Beijing has been able to put pressure on IOs and influence their
policy positions on Taiwan due to several factors. First, China managed to insert a vast
number of its nationals in the UN and its affiliated family of organizations at various
levels. As of 2019, there were over 1,300 Chinese citizens employed as a regular staff of
the UN system (United Nations Digital Library, 2020). Second, Beijing has been
successful in promoting Chinese nationals to senior ranks across the UN funds and
programs, its principal organs, and other UN-affiliated IOs (US-China
Economic and Security Review Commission, 2022). Third, Beijing has been widely seen
as backing non-Chinese who are particularly supportive of Beijing’s agenda. For
example, WHO Director General Dr. Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus of Ethiopia has
been considered by many to be an outspoken advocate for the Chinese government’s
epidemiological response following the outbreak of the Covid-19 pandemic (Collins,
2020). Concurrently, the World Health Assembly (WHA), the decision-making body of
WHO, has not been issuing an invitation to Taiwan since 2016, even during the Covid-19
pandemic—despite the fact that Taiwan was the first country to inform the UN agency
JANUS.NET, e-journal of International Relations
e-ISSN: 1647-7251
VOL. 16, Nº. 2
November 2025-April 2026, pp. 77-95
Taiwan and International Organizations in US-China Competition
Antonina Łuszczykiewicz-Mendis, Patrick Mendis
85
about the suspicious virus transmissions originating from the Chinese city of Wuhan
(Mendis and Wang, 2020a). In May 2022, the proposal sent by 13 WHO member-
states (the then-diplomatic allies of Taipei) to allow Taiwan to join as an observer
was not even included in the official WHA agenda (Reuters, 2022).
It is important to remember, however, that Taiwan used to receive an invitation to attend
the WHA as an observer in the past. Between 2009 and 2016, Taiwan was allowed to
participate in the Assembly as “Chinese Taipei” on an annual basis. Uncoincidentally, it
was made possible during the presidency of Ma Ying-jeou (2008-16) from the KMT,
which, at least in recent years, has been believed by Beijing to be more China-friendly
than the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP). As a result, when President Tsai Ing-wen
of the DPP was elected in 2016, Taipei was yet again prevented from participating in the
WHA. This situation has continued following the election victory of Lai Ching-te, former
vice president during Tsai’s second term, in January 2024.
Inserting trusted personnel across the IOs has reportedly allowed China not only to keep
blocking Taiwan’s access to IOs, but also to impact a wide range of UN activities, events,
and narratives. Beijing is believed to have excluded Taiwanese nationals from scientific
conferences co-sponsored by the UN and its specialized agencies, as well as to have
edited UN documents to reflect its own preferences (Asia Watch, 2020). This accusation
was based on the leaked information about a secret Memorandum of Understanding
(MoU) signed between the WHO and PRC in 2005. Even though the content of the MoU
itself was never made public, the leaked Memorandum on Implementation of the 2005
China-WHO Taiwan MoU was made temporarily available on WikiSource. According to the
document, the MoU restricted Taiwan’s access to the WHO and its facilities, and used the
name “Taiwan, China” (McCuaig-Johnston, 2021). However, the Memorandum on
Implementation disappeared from WikiSource in 2020 (Memorandum on Implementation
of the 2005 China-WHO Taiwan MOU, 2005).
Moreover, the UN has been restricting NGOs from access and accreditation, if they fail to
comply with Beijing’s demands to revise the name “Taiwan” to “Taiwan, Province of
China” on their websites and publications. One example was provided by Wikimedia
Foundation’s blocked accreditation to the World Intellectual Property Organization
(WIPO) in 2020 and 2021, as Beijing accused the foundation of spreading disinformation
via the independent, volunteer-led Taiwan chapter (Wikimedia Foundation, 2021).
The Consequences of Taiwan’s Exclusion from IOs: The Case Study of
WHO
The reverberations of China’s coercive strategies to exclude Taiwan from the UN system
and other IOs are perhaps best evidenced by the events which followed the outbreak of
the Covid-19 pandemic. Thanks to a swift border closure and effective government-led
strategies, Taiwan recorded lower Covid-19 infection rates than most other countries and
has generally emerged as a success story in combating the novel and dangerous virus
(Qin and Chang Chien, 2021) (Schleich, 2020) (Summers et. al, 2020). Furthermore,
Taiwan has also been recognized worldwide as an aid donor thanks to its “Taiwan Can
Help, and Taiwan Is Helping” campaign.
JANUS.NET, e-journal of International Relations
e-ISSN: 1647-7251
VOL. 16, Nº. 2
November 2025-April 2026, pp. 77-95
Taiwan and International Organizations in US-China Competition
Antonina Łuszczykiewicz-Mendis, Patrick Mendis
86
However, despite effective foreign assistance projects—which allowed Taiwan to gain
positive attention of the international community—the island-nation reportedly faced a
series of obstacles and complications, mainly due to China’s pressure. The most serious
of them was the challenge to buy Covid-19 vaccines from abroad. Taipei openly accused
Beijing of influencing a German firm producing Covid-19 vaccines and making it nearly
impossible for Taiwan to buy vaccines directly (Chung, 2021). As a result, Taiwan had to
initially rely on vaccine donations. Whereas the United States and Japan became the two
biggest donors, the middle and small sized countries like Lithuania, the Czech Republic,
Slovakia, and Poland also made significant vaccine donations.
To bypass China’s influence, Taiwanese private companies were compelled to buy
foreign-made vaccines on behalf of the Taipei government. Two of the world’s biggest
technology manufacturers—Foxconn, which makes devices for Apple, and the giant
semiconductor chip producer TSMC—as well as the Tzu Chi Foundation brokered
agreements worth $350 million for the BioNTech vaccine (Lewis, 2021). Moreover, soon
after the outbreak of the pandemic, Taipei decided to develop its own Covid-19 vaccine—
not only to demonstrate the country’s capabilities and technological advancement, but
also to minimize the consequences of China’s practices and compensate Taiwan’s
geopolitical vulnerability.
Without a doubt, exclusion from IOs and China’s growing international pressure have had
far-fetched implications for Taiwan and its position on the international stage. Equally
important, however, is the fact that Beijing’s modus operandi seems to have limited
Taiwan’s options to contribute successfully to the global community. For instance, Taiwan
was barred from participating in official WHO consultations on Covid-19, even though
Taiwanese experts could have shared their experience from the 2003 Severe Acute
Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) epidemic in that forum. The idea that supporting Taiwan’s
meaningful participation in—and contribution to—the UN system might be in fact
advantageous to the rest of the world was highlighted by US Secretary of State Antony
Blinken, who attested on October 26, 2021 that “Taiwan’s exclusion undermines the
important work of the UN and its related bodies, all of which stand to benefit greatly from
its contributions” (Blinken, 2021). In a larger framework, Taiwan’s shrinking diplomatic
presence also indicates China’s growing influences in IOs. Arguably, by tightening control
over UN funds and shaping the language of international documents to its advantage,
Beijing has gradually sought to reshape the international order from within (Mendis and
Łuszczykiewicz, 2023b).
China’s influences in IOs have increased concurrently with the United States’
neglection of the UN agencies and decrease of Washington’s authority—especially in
the Global South. Notably, the United States under President Donald Trump withdrew
from the Paris-based UNESCO in 2019, and it was not until July 2023 that the Biden
administration rejoined the organization (Mendis and Łuszczykiewicz, 2023a).
Meanwhile, however, Beijing managed to use its financial leverage stemming from
membership dues as it became the largest annual contributor in Washington’s absence
(Mendis and Łuszczykiewicz, 2021b). Having returned to the White House after the
Biden interlude, President Trump once again announced the US withdrawal from
UNESCO, scheduled to take effect on December 31, 2026. It would also hand Beijing
a pathway to further isolate Washington within the UN system and other multilateral
frameworks of global governance.
JANUS.NET, e-journal of International Relations
e-ISSN: 1647-7251
VOL. 16, Nº. 2
November 2025-April 2026, pp. 77-95
Taiwan and International Organizations in US-China Competition
Antonina Łuszczykiewicz-Mendis, Patrick Mendis
87
Brussels’ Support for Taiwan’s Participation in IOs
From political and economic perspectives, Taiwan has gone a long way since 1971 when
it was excluded from the UN. After a political transformation at the turn of the 1980s and
1990s, the island-nation has been recognized as one of the most vibrant democracies in
the world (Economist Intelligence, 2023). This successful, non-violent metamorphosis
has brought the attention, sympathy, and support of many other like-minded democratic
countries. The support for Taiwan’s inclusion in international organizations has become
particularly apparent and widely discussed in the times of the Covid-19 pandemic—as
evidenced by the voices of the European Union and the United States which opted for
Taiwan’s presence in the WHO and other international bodies (The Economist, 2022). For
example, the European Parliament in October 2021 recommended to
... strongly advocate for Taiwan’s meaningful participation as an observer in
meetings, mechanisms and activities of international bodies, including the
World Health Organization (WHO), the International Civil Aviation
Organization (ICAO), the International Criminal Police Organization
(INTERPOL) and the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change
(UNFCCC); urge Member States and the EU institutions to support
international initiatives calling for Taiwan’s participation in international
organisations; welcome again Taiwan’s proactive cooperation with the
international community in learning about the COVID-19 pandemic and
finding the best ways to respond to it, and underline that this case has proven
that Taiwan’s contributions in the WHO would be an added value to the health
and well-being of the citizens of all its members (The European Parliament,
2021).
The European Parliament went even further in 2024. With its unprecedented resolution
of February 28 on the implementation of the common foreign and security policy, the EU
Parliament concluded that “only Taiwan’s democratically elected government can
represent the Taiwanese people on the international stage” (The European Parliament,
2024). Essentially, the EU policy challenged China’s narrative, according to which the
Taiwanese people are represented internationally by Beijing. It was a landmark in
signaling EU’s support for Taiwan’s international presence and “meaningful participation”
in global institutions.
Washington’s Less-Known Yet Global Legislation
The United States has similarly supported Taiwan’s participation in international
organizations—even though, as in the case of the EU, Washington does not formally
endorse Taiwan’s independence (Yeh, 2016). Over the years, the long-term support of
the United States has been determined by the Taiwan Relations Act (TRA) of 1979, in
which—despite severing formal diplomatic ties with Taiwan—the American
administrations guaranteed the continuation of good relations between Washington and
Taipei in accordance with the “One China Policy.” More importantly, the TRA reaffirmed
Washington’s commitment to provide Taiwan with arms of a defensive character; thus,
helping “to resist any resort to force or other forms of coercion that would jeopardize the
JANUS.NET, e-journal of International Relations
e-ISSN: 1647-7251
VOL. 16, Nº. 2
November 2025-April 2026, pp. 77-95
Taiwan and International Organizations in US-China Competition
Antonina Łuszczykiewicz-Mendis, Patrick Mendis
88
security, or social or economic system, of the people of Taiwan” (Taiwan Relations Act,
1979).
In addition to the TRA, the Six Assurances and diplomatic cables that were declassified
in 2020 became the cornerstone of unofficial US-Taiwan relations. However, the most
significant development in Washington–Taipei relations occurred during the first Trump
administration (Mendis and Łuszczykiewicz, 2021a, pp. 6–7), when the Taiwan Travel Act
(2018), the TAIPEI Act (2019), and the Taiwan Assurance Act (2020) were enacted into
US law (Mendis and Łuszczykiewicz, 2021).
With regard to the island-nation’s presence in IOs, the Taiwan Allies International
Protection and Enhancement Initiative (TAIPEI) Act of 2019 advocates for “Taiwan’s
membership in all international organizations in which statehood is not a requirement
and in which the United States is also a participant” as well as an “observer status in
other appropriate international organizations” (Taiwan Allies International Protection and
Enhancement Initiative (TAIPEI) Act of 2019, 2020). Similarly, the Taiwan Assurance Act
of 2020 expressed “support for Taiwan’s defense strategy of asymmetric warfare” and
encouraged Taipei to increase its defense expenditures (Taiwan Assurance Act of 2020,
in the Consolidated Appropriations Act, 2020). It also reaffirmed US support for Taiwan’s
meaningful participation in the United Nations, WHA, INTERPOL, ICAO, and other
international bodies. Finally, the law also called for Taiwan’s inclusion in the Food and
Agriculture Organization (FAO), UNESCO, and other international organizations “for
which statehood is not a requirement for membership.”
It is important to stress that all these US congressional acts may have consequences for
other countries as well, depending on the character of their relations with Taiwan. The
most explicit case is the TAIPEI Act of 2019, which provides the most unprecedented
global consequences, as it technically gives the US authorities a prerogative to either
reward or punish countries that either support or act against Taiwan. The TAIPEI Act
declares that the US government should
a) “consider, in certain cases as appropriate and in alignment with United States
interests, increasing its economic, security, and diplomatic engagement with
nations that have demonstrably strengthened, enhanced, or upgraded relations
with Taiwan”; and
b) “consider, in certain cases as appropriate, in alignment with United States foreign
policy interests and in consultation with Congress, altering its economic, security,
and diplomatic engagement with nations that take serious or significant actions to
undermine the security or prosperity of Taiwan.” (Taiwan Allies International
Protection and Enhancement Initiative (TAIPEI) Act of 2019, 2020) (italics added).
In other words, the legislation authorizes US authorities to support or “punish” other
countries by expanding or restricting diplomatic, economic, and security assistance based
on their behavior toward Taiwan. Essentially, each country’s actions may be carefully
examined as to whether its government undermines the “security or prosperity” of
Taiwan, including the support for Taiwan’s international presence. However, despite
having such a powerful legislation in hand, the question is to what extent Washington
would want to weaponize it. As of mid-2025—when this article was submitted for
publication—the future remains uncertain: with the ongoing trade war with China during
JANUS.NET, e-journal of International Relations
e-ISSN: 1647-7251
VOL. 16, Nº. 2
November 2025-April 2026, pp. 77-95
Taiwan and International Organizations in US-China Competition
Antonina Łuszczykiewicz-Mendis, Patrick Mendis
89
President Trump’s second term, anticipating the dynamics of US relations with both China
and Taiwan is akin to reading tealeaves.
Conclusion
Barring Taiwan from any form of participation in international organizations—whether
through full membership or observer status—has been a core element of China’s broader
strategy of non-military coercion. This strategy seems to encompass cognitive campaigns
related to the 1971 UN resolution and the “One China Principle,” as well as efforts to strip
Taiwan of its diplomatic allies. Arguably, these measures are designed to weaken
Taiwan’s international position while strengthening Beijing’s influence in international
organizations, enabling it to impose its own rules and reshape global governance.
As a result, Taiwan has faced numerous obstacles in its efforts to secure meaningful
participation in—and contribution to—international organizations within the UN system
and beyond. China’s political, legal, and cognitive strategy is perhaps not as visible and
spectacular as military maneuvers—for example, when then-US Speaker of the House of
Representatives Nancy Pelosi visited Taiwan in August 2022 (Łuszczykiewicz and Mendis,
2023b; Łuszczykiewicz-Mendis and Mendis, 2024). Nonetheless, it may be argued that,
so far, China’s non-military modus operandi has proven highly effective.
Despite open declarations of support from the United States and the European Union,
breaking the impasse in UN bodies remains, for now, a distant and uncertain prospect
for Taiwan. However, it is not an entirely lost cause. An interesting precedent can be
found in the case of Palestine, which launched a diplomatic campaign—known as
“Palestine 194”—to secure international recognition of the State of Palestine and to obtain
UN membership as the 194th member state (Schanzer, Goldberg, and Mark, 2022).
Owing to the majority rule and the absence of veto power, Palestine became the 195th
full member of UNESCO on October 31, 2011—despite strong opposition from the United
States. A year later, the UN General Assembly adopted a resolution granting Palestine
the status of a non-member observer state at the United Nations.
As reflected in the EU resolution of 2024, some policymakers—especially in the like-
minded democratic countries—maintain that the Taiwanese people are not, and should
not be, represented by the PRC on the international stage; instead, they support Taipei’s
idea that 23 million citizens of the ROC should be represented only by the democratically-
elected government of the island-nation (Taipei Trade Office in Fiji, 2024). However, as
long as the status quo—one that helps to avoid a war but satisfies neither side—is
maintained, the people of Taiwan will remain in a limbo.
References
Asia Watch (2020). Taiwanese Researchers Shut Out of International Science
Conference. Asia Pacific Foundation of Canada [Online]. [Consulted on August 20, 2025].
Available at: https://www.asiapacific.ca/asia-watch/taiwanese-researchers-shut-out-
international-science.
JANUS.NET, e-journal of International Relations
e-ISSN: 1647-7251
VOL. 16, Nº. 2
November 2025-April 2026, pp. 77-95
Taiwan and International Organizations in US-China Competition
Antonina Łuszczykiewicz-Mendis, Patrick Mendis
90
Blinken, Antony J. (2021). Supporting Taiwan’s Participation in the UN System. US
Department of State [Online]. [Consulted on August 20, 2025]. Available at:
https://www.state.gov/supporting-taiwans-participation-in-the-un-system/.
Brown, Scott A. W. (2022). ‘Fraying at the Edges: A Subsystems/Normative Power
Analysis of the EU’s “One China Policy/Policies.”’ The China Quarterly.
https://doi.org/10.1017/S0305741022001345.
Carter, James (2020). When the PRC Won the ‘China’ Seat at the UN. The China Project
[Online]. [Consulted on August 20, 2025]. Available at:
https://thechinaproject.com/2020/10/21/when-the-prc-won-the-china-seat-at-the-un/.
Charnovitz, Steve (2006). Taiwan’s WTO Membership and Its International Implications.
Asian Journal of WTO and International Health Law and Policy [Online]. Vol. 1 (2).
[Consulted on August 20, 2025]. Available at:
https://core.ac.uk/download/pdf/232644556.pdf.
Cody, Jenna Lynn (2019). Lost In Translation: How Language Is Used to Obfuscate
Taiwan’s Reality. Taiwan News [Online]. [Consulted on August 20, 2025]. Available at:
https://taiwannews.com.tw/news/3655565.
Collins, Michael (2020). The WHO and China: Dereliction of Duty. Council on Foreign
Relations [Online]. [Consulted on August 20, 2025]. Available at:
https://www.cfr.org/blog/who-and-china-dereliction-duty.
Denby, Charles (1895). Letter to Mr. Gresham, April 29, 1895. Office of the Historian,
US Department of State [Online]. [Consulted on August 20, 2025]. Available at:
https://history.state.gov/historicaldocuments/frus1895p1/d203.
Drun, Jessica and Bonnie Glaser (2022). The Distortion of UN Resolution 2758 to Limit
Taiwan’s Access to the United Nations. The German Marshall Fund of the United States
[Online]. [Consulted on August 20, 2025]. Available at:
https://www.gmfus.org/news/distortion-un-resolution-2758-and-limits-taiwans-access-
united-nations.
Economist Intelligence (2023). Democracy Index 2023. Economist Intelligence [Online].
[Consulted on August 20, 2025]. Available at:
https://www.eiu.com/n/campaigns/democracy-index-2023/.
Embassy of the People’s Republic of China in the Republic of the Philippines (2024). The
One-China Principle is a Universally Recognized Basic Norm Governing International
Relations. Embassy of the People’s Republic of China in the Republic of the Philippines
[Online]. [Consulted on August 20, 2025]. Available at: http://ph.china-
embassy.gov.cn/eng/sgdt/202403/t20240319_11262567.htm.
Focus Taiwan (2022). Taiwan Accuses China of Misinterpreting U.N. Resolution 2758
[Online]. [Consulted on August 20, 2025]. Available at: https://focustaiwan.tw/cross-
strait/202209250008.
Government Portal of the Republic of China (Taiwan) (n.d.). Foreign Affairs [Online].
[Consulted on August 20, 2025]. Available at:
https://www.taiwan.gov.tw/content_5.php.
JANUS.NET, e-journal of International Relations
e-ISSN: 1647-7251
VOL. 16, Nº. 2
November 2025-April 2026, pp. 77-95
Taiwan and International Organizations in US-China Competition
Antonina Łuszczykiewicz-Mendis, Patrick Mendis
91
Green, Michael J. and Bonnie S. Glaser (2017). What Is the U.S. ‘One China’ Policy, and
Why Does It Matter? Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) [Online].
[Consulted on August 20, 2025]. Available at: https://www.csis.org/analysis/what-us-
one-china-policy-and-why-does-it-matter.
Hindustan Times (2021). India Rejects Report of Taiwan’s Role in Arranging Vaccine
Supplies to Paraguay [Online]. [Consulted on August 20, 2025]. Available at:
https://www.hindustantimes.com/india-news/india-rejects-report-of-taiwan-s-role-in-
arranging-vaccine-supplies-to-paraguay-101617900647486.html.
Joint Communiqué of the United States of America and the People’s Republic of China
(Shanghai Communiqué) (1972). Wilson Center Digital Archive, Washington DC [Online].
[Consulted on August 20, 2025]. Available at:
https://digitalarchive.wilsoncenter.org/document/joint-communique-between-united-
states-and-china.
Laws and Regulations Database of The Republic of China (Taiwan) (2005). Additional
Articles of the Constitution of the Republic of China [Online]. [Consulted on August 20,
2025]. Available at:
https://law.moj.gov.tw/ENG/LawClass/LawAll.aspx?pcode=A0000002.
Lewis, Craig C. (2021). Buddhist Tzu Chi Foundation Inks Deal to Source COVID Vaccines
for Taiwan. Buddhistdoor Global [Online]. [Consulted on August 20, 2025]. Available at:
https://www.buddhistdoor.net/news/buddhist-tzu-chi-foundation-inks-deal-to-source-
covid-vaccines-for-taiwan/.
Liff, Adam, Lin, Dalton (2022). ‘The “One China” Framework at 50 (1972–2022): The
Myth of “Consensus” and Its Evolving Policy Significance.’ The China Quarterly [Online].
[Consulted on August 20, 2025]. Available at:
https://doi.org/10.1017/S030574102200131X.
Lai, Michelle (2023). Honduras Ditches Taiwan for China. Foreign Policy Research
Institute [Online]. [Consulted on August 20, 2025]. Available at:
https://www.fpri.org/article/2023/10/honduras-ditches-taiwan-for-china/.
Łuszczykiewicz, Antonina, Mendis, Patrick (2023a). Taiwan’s Participation in International
Organizations: The Current Position of Poland and Its Possible Ways of Supporting Taipei
[Online]. [Consulted on August 20, 2025]. Available at: https://wnpism.uw.edu.pl/wp-
content/uploads/2023/06/Taiwan-Report-on-Poland-and-IOs-by-Luszczykiewicz-and-
Mendis-February-2023.pdf.
Łuszczykiewicz, Antonina, Mendis, Patrick (2023b). Beijing’s Diplomacy of Anger at
Taiwan: How the Chinese Art of War Avoids Red Lines. Australian Outlook [Online].
[Consulted on August 20, 2025]. Available at:
https://www.internationalaffairs.org.au/australianoutlook/beijings-diplomacy-of-anger-
at-taiwan-how-the-chinese-art-of-war-avoids-red-lines/.
Łuszczykiewicz-Mendis, Antonina, Mendis, Patrick (2024). The Odyssey of Hurt and
Anger: China’s “Emotional Diplomacy.” China Dialogues, The London School of Economics
and Political Science [Online]. [Consulted on August 20, 2025]. Available at:
https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/cff/2024/06/26/the-odyssey-of-hurt-and-anger-chinas-
emotional-diplomacy/.
JANUS.NET, e-journal of International Relations
e-ISSN: 1647-7251
VOL. 16, Nº. 2
November 2025-April 2026, pp. 77-95
Taiwan and International Organizations in US-China Competition
Antonina Łuszczykiewicz-Mendis, Patrick Mendis
92
Mazza, Michael, Schmitt, Gary (2021). Righting a Wrong: Taiwan, the United Nations,
and United States Policy. Project 2049 Institute [Online]. [Consulted on August 20,
2025]. Available at: https://project2049.net/2021/10/25/righting-a-wrong-taiwan-the-
united-nations-and-united-states-policy/.
McCuaig-Johnston, Margaret (2021). Enhancing Taiwan’s Role in International
Organizations. Canadian Global Affairs Institute [Online]. [Consulted on August 20,
2025]. Available at:
https://www.cgai.ca/enhancing_taiwans_role_in_international_organizations.
Memorandum on Implementation of the 2005 China-WHO Taiwan MOU (2005) [Online].
[Consulted on August 20, 2025]. Available at: https://goachronicle.com/wp-
content/uploads/2020/05/Memorandum_on_implementation_of_the_2005_China-
WHO_Taiwan_MOU.pdf.
Mendis, Patrick (2020). The Plight of Taiwan and China: Trump is No Reagan for the
Vatican. Harvard International Review [Online]. [Consulted on August 20, 2025].
Available at: https://hir.harvard.edu/trump-is-no-reagan-for-vatican/.
Mendis, Patrick (2021). The Man from Ceylon, the Lodestar for Our Nation: Remembering
Walter Mondale. Minnpost [Online]. [Consulted on August 20, 2025]. Available at:
http://www.minnpost.com/community-voices/2021/05/the-man-from-ceylon-the-
lodestar-for-our-nation-remembering-walter-mondale/.
Mendis, Patrick, Łuszczykiewicz, Antonina (2021a). America Can Contribute to Stronger
Relations Between India and Taiwan. Strategic Vision, vol. 10/51 [Online]. [Consulted on
August 20, 2025]. Available at:
https://issuu.com/strategic_vision/docs/sv51?fbclid=IwAR0vmzL8Rug57jcR7-
vMS_xTqLAgszGI34SpdbkpBXn-ITiKmjWkHAjBKxQ.
Mendis, Patrick, Łuszczykiewicz, Antonina (2021b). The United States Must Rejoin
UNESCO for Its Perpetuum Mobile. Harvard International Review [Online]. [Consulted on
August 20, 2025]. Available at: https://hir.harvard.edu/the-united-states-must-rejoin-
unesco/.
Mendis, Patrick, Łuszczykiewicz, Antonina (2021c). The United States Needs India and
Taiwan to Counterbalance China: Will the ‘Milk Tea Alliance’ Work? SAIS Review of
International Affairs [Online]. [Consulted on August 20, 2025]. Available at:
https://saisreview.sais.jhu.edu/milk-tea-alliance/.
Mendis, Patrick, Łuszczykiewicz, Antonina (2023a). The United States Must Rejoin
UNESCO to Compete with China. The National Interest [Online]. [Consulted on August
20, 2025]. Available at: https://nationalinterest.org/feature/united-states-must-rejoin-
unesco-compete-china-206334.
Mendis, Patrick, Łuszczykiewicz, Antonina (2023b). Why the World Needs a Democratic
Taiwan at the UN. The National Interest [Online]. [Consulted on August 20, 2025].
Available at: https://nationalinterest.org/feature/why-world-needs-democratic-taiwan-
un-206770.
Mendis, Patrick, Wang, Joey (2020a). How China Made the Coronavirus Worse. The
National Interest [Online]. [Consulted on August 20, 2025]. Available at:
https://nationalinterest.org/blog/buzz/how-china-made-coronavirus-worse-138517.
JANUS.NET, e-journal of International Relations
e-ISSN: 1647-7251
VOL. 16, Nº. 2
November 2025-April 2026, pp. 77-95
Taiwan and International Organizations in US-China Competition
Antonina Łuszczykiewicz-Mendis, Patrick Mendis
93
Mendis, Patrick, Wang, Joey (2020b). Would Joe Biden Go to War to Stop a Chinese
Invasion of Taiwan? The National Interest [Online]. [Consulted on August 20, 2025].
Available at: https://nationalinterest.org/feature/would-joe-biden-go-war-stop-chinese-
invasion-taiwan-172577.
Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the People’s Republic of China (2022). Wang Yi Elaborates
on the Real Status Quo of Taiwan Question [Online]. [Consulted on August 20, 2025].
Available at:
https://www.fmprc.gov.cn/mfa_eng/wjdt_665385/wshd_665389/202209/t20220924_1
0771034.html.
Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the People’s Republic of China (n.d.). Struggle to Restore
China’s Lawful Seat in the United Nations [Online]. [Consulted on August 20, 2025].
Available at:
https://www.mfa.gov.cn/eng/zy/wjls/3604_665547/202405/t20240531_11367538.htm
l.
National Development and Reform Commission, People’s Republic of China (2023).
Advancing the Great Rejuvenation of the Chinese Nation Through a Chinese Path to
Modernization. [Online]. [Consulted on August 20, 2025]. Available at:
https://www.ndrc.gov.cn/xwdt/ztzl/NEW_srxxgcjjpjjsx/yjcg/yw/202401/t20240123_13
63632.html.
Office of the Historian, US Department of State (1973). United States Efforts to Secure
Dual Representation for China in the United Nations (November 1970–October 1971)
[Online]. [Consulted on August 20, 2025]. Available at:
https://history.state.gov/historicaldocuments/frus1969-76v05/d455.
Office of the President, Republic of China (Taiwan) (2023). President Tsai Delivers
Remarks on the Termination of Diplomatic Relations with the Republic of Honduras
[Online]. [Consulted on August 20, 2025]. Available at:
https://www.npr.org/2023/03/27/1166177955/honduras-establishes-ties-with-china-
after-break-from-taiwan.
Qin, Amy, Chang Chien, Amy (2021). The Island that Covid Forgot: Life Goes on as Nearly
Normal in Booming Taiwan. The Irish Times [Online]. [Consulted on August 20, 2025].
Available at: https://www.irishtimes.com/news/world/asia-pacific/the-island-that-covid-
forgot-life-goes-on-as-nearly-normal-in-booming-taiwan-1.4512052.
Reuters (2021). Taiwan Says India Helped Paraguay Get Vaccines after China Pressure
[Online]. [Consulted on August 20, 2025]. Available at:
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-taiwan-idUSKBN2BU0NH.
Reuters (2022). Taiwan Backers Seek Invitation to Major Health Assembly, WHO Says
[Online]. [Consulted on August 20, 2025]. Available at:
https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/taiwan-backers-seek-invitation-major-
health-asse.mbly-who-says-2022-05-16/.
Schanzer, Jonathan, Goldberg, Richard, Montgomery, Mark (2022). Taiwan 194.
Emulating the Palestinians to Advocate Internationally for Taiwan and to Counter China.
Foundation for Defense of Democracies [Online]. [Consulted on August 20, 2025].
Available at: https://www.fdd.org/analysis/2022/02/17/taiwan-194/.
JANUS.NET, e-journal of International Relations
e-ISSN: 1647-7251
VOL. 16, Nº. 2
November 2025-April 2026, pp. 77-95
Taiwan and International Organizations in US-China Competition
Antonina Łuszczykiewicz-Mendis, Patrick Mendis
94
Schleich, Anne-Marie (2020). Responding Successfully to COVID-19: A Case Study of
Taiwan’s Strategy. ISPSW Strategy Series: Focus on Defense and International Security
[Online]. No. 697. [Consulted on August 20, 2025]. Available at:
https://www.ispsw.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/697_Schleich.pdf.
Stokes, Jacob, Sullivan, Alexander, Durkee, Zachary (2022). Global Island: Sustaining
Taiwan’s International Participation Amid Mounting Pressure from China. Center for a
New American Security [Online]. [Consulted on August 20, 2025]. Available at:
https://s3.us-east-
1.amazonaws.com/files.cnas.org/backgrounds/documents/GlobalIsland_Final.pdf?mtim
e=20220419160647&focal=none.
Summers, Jennifer et. al. (2020). Potential Lessons from the Taiwan and New Zealand
Health Responses to the COVID-19 Pandemic. The LANCET Regional Health Western
Pacific [Online]. Vol. 4. [Consulted on August 20, 2025]. Available at:
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.lanwpc.2020.100044.
Taipei Trade Office in Fiji (2024). Safeguarding Taiwan’s Sovereignty: Unveiling
Disinformation [Online]. [Consulted on August 20, 2025]. Available at: https://www.roc-
taiwan.org/fj_en/post/1951.html.
Taiwan Allies International Protection and Enhancement Initiative (TAIPEI) Act of 2019
(2020). US Congress [Online]. [Consulted on August 20, 2025]. Available at:
https://www.congress.gov/bill/116th-congress/senate-bill/1678/text.
Taiwan Relations Act (1979, January 1). US Congress [Online]. [Consulted on August 20,
2025]. Available at: https://www.congress.gov/bill/96th-congress/house-bill/2479.
Tang, James Tuck-Hong (2016). Britain’s Encounter with Revolutionary China, 1949–54.
New York: St. Martin’s Press.
The Economist (2022). A New Low for Global Democracy [Online]. [Consulted on August
20, 2025]. Available at: https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2022/02/09/a-new-
low-for-global-democracy.
The Economist (2025). China’s stunning new campaign to turn the world against
Taiwan [Online]. [Consulted on August 20, 2025]. Available at:
https://www.economist.com/international/2025/02/09/chinas-stunning-new-campaign-
to-turn-the-world-against-taiwan.
The European Parliament (2021). European Parliament Recommendation of 21 October
2021 to the Vice-President of the Commission / High Representative of the Union for
Foreign Affairs and Security Policy on EU-Taiwan Political Relations and Cooperation
(2021/2041[INI]) [Online]. [Consulted on August 20, 2025]. Available at:
https://www.europarl.europa.eu/doceo/document/TA-9-2021-0431_EN.html.
The European Parliament (2024). European Parliament Resolution of 28 February 2024
on the Implementation of the Common Foreign and Security Policy – Annual Report 2023
(2023/2117[INI]) [Online]. [Consulted on August 20, 2025]. Available at:
https://www.europarl.europa.eu/doceo/document/TA-9-2024-0104_EN.html.
The Mission of the People’s Republic of China to the European Union (2022). Remarks by
the Spokesperson of the Chinese Mission to the EU on the Speaker of the US House of
JANUS.NET, e-journal of International Relations
e-ISSN: 1647-7251
VOL. 16, Nº. 2
November 2025-April 2026, pp. 77-95
Taiwan and International Organizations in US-China Competition
Antonina Łuszczykiewicz-Mendis, Patrick Mendis
95
Representatives Nancy Pelosi’s Attempt to Visit China’s Taiwan Region [Online].
[Consulted on August 20, 2025]. Available at: http://eu.china-
mission.gov.cn/eng/fyrjh/202208/t20220803_10732495.htm.
The Taiwan Affairs Office of the State Council and The State Council Information Office,
People’s Republic of China (2022). The Taiwan Question and China’s Reunification in the
New Era [Online]. [Consulted on August 20, 2025]. Available at:
https://english.news.cn/20220810/df9d3b8702154b34bbf1d451b99bf64a/c.html.
Trojnar, E. (2015). Tajwan. Dylematy rozwoju. Kraków: Księgarnia Akademicka.
U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission (2022). PRC Representation in
International Organizations [Online]. [Consulted on August 20, 2025]. Available at:
https://www.uscc.gov/sites/default/files/2022-
12/PRC_Representation_in_International_Organizations_December2022.pdf.
United Nations (1945). United Nations Charter (full text) [Online]. [Consulted on August
20, 2025]. Available at: https://www.un.org/en/about-us/un-charter/full-text.
United Nations (1971). The Full Text of the UN Resolution 2758 on Restoration of the
Lawful Rights of the People’s Republic of China in the United Nations [Online]. [Consulted
on August 20, 2025]. Available at: https://digitallibrary.un.org/record/192054.
United Nations Digital Library (2020). Personnel Statistics, Data as at 31 December 2019
[Online]. [Consulted on August 20, 2025]. Available at:
https://digitallibrary.un.org/record/3884998.
Yang, Cheng-yu, Hetherington, William (2023). Only 51 Countries Stick to Beijing Policy.
Taipei Times [Online]. [Consulted on August 20, 2025]. Available at:
https://www.taipeitimes.com/News/front/archives/2023/02/13/2003794249.
Yeh, Chieh-Ting (2016). ‘Taiwan Independence’ Doesn’t Mean What You Think. Foreign
Policy [Online]. [Consulted on August 20, 2025]. Available at:
https://foreignpolicy.com/2016/04/11/taiwan-independence-china-republic-huadu-
taidu/
OBSERVARE
Universidade Autónoma de Lisboa
e-ISSN: 1647-7251
VOL. 16, Nº. 2
novembro 2025 -abril 2026
96
O IMPACTO DA INICIATIVA FAIXA E ROTA NO DESENVOLVIMENTO DO
SUDESTE ASIÁTICO COM DESTAQUE AO CAMBOJA – A CONTINUAÇÃO DE UM
“DESENVOLVIMENTO DEPENDENTE”?
PAULO VICTOR BASÍLIO JERONYMO
paulovbj.12@gmail.com
Licenciado em Ciência Política e Relações Internacionais pela Universidade Lusófona de Lisboa.
Mestre em Relações Internacionais, especialidade em Política Internacional Contemporânea, pela
Universidade Autónoma de Lisboa (Portugal).
Resumo
Desde o seu surgimento, a Iniciativa Faixa e Rota (IFR) tem levantado muitos alarmismos.
Isto é, há preocupações quanto ao uso da iniciativa, essa seria utilizada para a perseguição
estrita dos objetivos nacionais chineses. Ao mesmo tempo, e devido a isso, traria
consequências econômicas negativas aos Estados participantes, sendo muitas vezes
reconhecida como uma armadilha econômica. Sob esse contexto, o presente artigo procura
responder como o desenvolvimento dos países do Sudeste Asiático, em especial do Camboja,
poderá ser impactado pela IFR. Haveria uma perpetuação de um modelo de “desenvolvimento
dependente”? Para tal faz-se necessário compreendermos as principais dinâmicas no processo
histórico de desenvolvimento dos Estados do Sudeste Asiático. E como a estratégia
geoeconômica chinesa voltada ao Sudeste Asiático sob o contexto da IFR é implementada.
Assim, utilizando-se de um modelo descritivo-analítico, através de pesquisa bibliográfica e da
análise do caso do Camboja, pode-se dizer que as construções de infraestruturas no contexto
IFR apresentam efeitos econômicos positivos no curto prazo para os países participantes no
Sudeste Asiático que apresentam características semelhantes ao Camboja. Nesse sentido, os
investimentos e construções de infraestruturas na esfera da IFR têm a capacidade de
promover o crescimento econômico de Estados com baixos níveis de infraestruturas
conectivas, dependentes de investimentos diretos estrangeiros e com uma governança
debilitada. Logo, não parece existir uma armadilha como se é normalmente pensado, uma
armadilha de dívida, mas sim uma possível “armadilha” a longo prazo. Na qual os Estados do
Sudeste Asiático conectam-se cada vez mais a uma cadeia produtiva regional e aumentam as
suas relações comerciais com a China. Assim, possivelmente dando continuidade a um modelo
de “desenvolvimento dependente”, mas agora dependentes da China. Indo de acordo com os
objetivos chineses para a região, uma ordem econômica regional centrada na China.
Palavras-chave
China, Sudeste Asiático, Iniciativa Faixa e Rota, Camboja, desenvolvimento dependente.
Abstract
Since its emergence, the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) has raised many alarms. That is, there
are concerns that the initiative will be used to strictly pursue Chinese national objectives. At
the same time, and because of this, it would have negative economic consequences for
participating states, often being recognised as an economic trap. In this context, this article
seeks to answer how the development of Southeast Asian countries, especially Cambodia,
could be impacted by the BRI. Would there be a perpetuation of a model of ‘dependent
JANUS.NET, e-journal of International Relations
e-ISSN: 1647-7251
VOL. 16, Nº. 2
Novembro 2025-abril 2026, pp. 96-117
O Impacto da Iniciativa Faixa e Rota No Desenvolvimento do Sudeste Asiático com destaque
ao Camboja – A Continuação de um “Desenvolvimento Dependente”?
Paulo Victor Basílio Jeronymo
97
development’? To do so, it is necessary to understand the main dynamics in the historical
development process of Southeast Asian states. And how China's geo-economic strategy
towards Southeast Asia in the context of the BRI is implemented. Thus, using a descriptive-
analytical model, through bibliographic research and analysis of the case of Cambodia, it can
be said that infrastructure construction in the BRI context has positive short-term economic
effects for participating countries in Southeast Asia that have characteristics similar to
Cambodia. In this sense, investments and infrastructure construction in the IFR sphere have
the capacity to promote economic growth in states with low levels of connective infrastructure,
dependent on foreign direct investment and with weak governance. Therefore, there does not
seem to be a trap as is commonly thought, a debt trap, but rather a possible long-term ‘trap.’
In this trap, Southeast Asian states are increasingly connecting to a regional production chain
and increasing their trade relations with China. Thus, they may be continuing a model of
‘dependent development,’ but now dependent on China. This is in line with China's objectives
for the region, a regional economic order centred on China.
Keywords
China, Southeast Asia, Belt and Road Initiative, Cambodia, dependent development.
Como citar este artigo
Jeronymo, Paulo Victor Basílio (2025). O Impacto da Iniciativa Faixa e Rota No Desenvolvimento
do Sudeste Asiático com destaque ao Camboja – A Continuação de um “Desenvolvimento
Dependente”?. Janus.net, e-journal of international relations. VOL. 16, Nº. 2, november 2025-april
2026, pp. 96-117. DOI https://doi.org/10.26619/1647-7251.16.2.6
Artigo submetido em 17 de setembro de 2024 e aceite para publicação em 17 de julho
de 2025.
JANUS.NET, e-journal of International Relations
e-ISSN: 1647-7251
VOL. 16, Nº. 2
Novembro 2025-abril 2026, pp. 96-117
O Impacto da Iniciativa Faixa e Rota No Desenvolvimento do Sudeste Asiático com destaque
ao Camboja – A Continuação de um “Desenvolvimento Dependente”?
Paulo Victor Basílio Jeronymo
98
O IMPACTO DA INICIATIVA FAIXA E ROTA NO
DESENVOLVIMENTO DO SUDESTE ASIÁTICO COM DESTAQUE AO
CAMBOJA – A CONTINUAÇÃO DE UM “DESENVOLVIMENTO
DEPENDENTE”?
PAULO VICTOR BASÍLIO JERONYMO
Introdução
A China, reconhecida como uma potência em ascensão no cenário internacional, utiliza-
se de sua vasta capacidade econômica, simbolizada pela Iniciativa Faixa e Rota (IFR),
para avançar seus interesses nacionais. Isso tem provocado um crescente alarmismo
tanto no meio acadêmico de Relações Internacionais quanto nas grandes mídias
ocidentais. A visão predominante é de que a IFR seria um instrumento voltado
exclusivamente para a promoção dos objetivos chineses, acarretando prejuízos
econômicos para os países participantes, em vez de promover o desenvolvimento mútuo.
Assim, o artigo busca compreender quais são os potenciais impactos da IFR nas
economias participantes do Sudeste Asiático, em especial no Camboja. Perpetuar-se-ia
nesses Estados um modelo de “desenvolvimento dependente”? Para que seja possível
responder essa questão, primeiramente se faz necessário compreender as principais
dinâmicas do processo histórico de desenvolvimento dos países do Sudeste Asiático. E
demonstrar como a estratégia geoeconômica regional chinesa direcionada ao Sudeste
Asiático é implementada.
Argumenta-se que os potenciais impactos econômicos da iniciativa se mostrarão de
maneira geral positivos. O uso da IFR como um instrumento de statecraft econômico
negativo não parece favorável aos objetivos políticos chineses na região, a formação de
uma ordem regional com a China no seu centro. Nesse contexto, a continuação de um
modelo de “desenvolvimento dependente” parece ir ao encontro destes objetivos.
Este artigo considera que a região do Sudeste Asiático é composta pelos Estados-
membros da Associação de Nações do Sudeste Asiático (ASEAN) e o Timor-Leste. Sendo
selecionado o Camboja como estudo de caso. Uma vez que, é um dos Estados mais
dependentes do financiamento chinês entre os países do Sudeste Asiático e apresenta
baixos níveis de infraestrutura, como será demonstrado. Também, faz parte de um dos
principais corredores econômicos da IFR, o Corredor Econômico China-Península da
Indochina. Assim, apresenta grande potencial para o desenvolvimento, mas também se
mostra mais vulnerável ao suposto statecraft econômico negativo da China. Para além
disso, detém uma maior disponibilidade de estudos sobre, diferente do Laos, mesmo que
esse apresente características semelhantes às descritas acima.
JANUS.NET, e-journal of International Relations
e-ISSN: 1647-7251
VOL. 16, Nº. 2
Novembro 2025-abril 2026, pp. 96-117
O Impacto da Iniciativa Faixa e Rota No Desenvolvimento do Sudeste Asiático com destaque
ao Camboja – A Continuação de um “Desenvolvimento Dependente”?
Paulo Victor Basílio Jeronymo
99
O presente artigo foi elaborado por meio da metodologia dedutiva, a seguir um modelo
descritivo-analítico baseado em pesquisa bibliográfica. Sob uma lente crítica, esse artigo
busca contribuir empiricamente para o estudo da estratégia regional chinesa.
Modelo de desenvolvimento do Sudeste Asiático
Como será demonstrado nesta secção, através de descrição histórica, o crescimento
econômico na região do Sudeste Asiático de maneira geral foi atingido pela liberalização
seletiva das economias nacionais ao investimento estrangeiro. Desenvolvendo com o
passar do tempo, em sua generalidade, economias voltadas à exportação de manufaturas
(Al-Fadhat, 2020: p. 178; Carroll, 2020: pp. 52-53). Mas, esse crescimento parece ter
chegado a um estágio de estagnação. Diversos autores reconhecem a chamada
“armadilha de renda média”, ou “middle-income trap”, no Sudeste Asiático. Atualmente,
essa pode ser compreendida como consequência de estratégias de desenvolvimento
desiguais, assentadas em princípios neoliberais e promovidos, principalmente, pelo
Banco Mundial (Masina, 2018: p. 251). Nesse sentido, em geral, os países da região têm
tido dificuldade em deslocar-se do trabalho intensivo e produções industriais de baixo
valor agregado (Carroll, 2020: pp. 52-53; Masina, 2018: p. 251).
Entre 1945 e meados da década de 1970, as economias do Sudeste Asiático
encontravam-se diretamente relacionadas as dinâmicas do pós-guerra, da Guerra Fria e
de seus processos de descolonização. Nessa altura, os Estados da região tornam-se
importantes locais de produção de manufaturados offshore para os países desenvolvidos,
devido à oferta de mão de obra barata. Esse fenômeno, como será demonstrado, terá
continuidade com o processo de globalização e a adoção de políticas de caráter neoliberal
(Carroll, 2020: pp. 47-48). Os países da região, majoritariamente, tornaram-se
suscetíveis a essa forma de integração econômica (dependente) em grande parte devido
ao seu passado colonial. Assim, não ocorreu o desenvolvimento de suas indústrias
nacionais, mas moldou suas economias de forma a servir principalmente aos europeus
(Masina, 2018: pp. 267-268).
Antes da China passar a ter um papel relevante nas redes de produção regionais, o ator
econômico de maior relevância regional era o Japão, contribuindo para a formação das
redes produtivas do Sudeste Asiático, que mais tarde seriam aproveitadas pelos chineses.
Durante as décadas de 1960 e 1970, desacelerando o passo a partir de meados dos anos
1980, se dá uma primeira onda de crescimento asiático. Coincidindo com uma primeira
onda de expansão da divisão regional do trabalho, na qual empresas nipônicas
dependiam da Coreia do Sul, Taiwan e Singapura para suas produções (King & Du, 2018:
p. 815; Masina, 2018: p. 263).
Mas, devido ao aumento dos custos laborais passam a realocar para outros países da
região as etapas produtivas de trabalho intensivo. Para além de que, agora os Quatro
Tigres Asiáticos (Coreia do Sul, Hong Kong, Singapura e Taiwan) passam a fazer o
mesmo, transferir suas indústrias de baixo custo para economias asiáticas em
industrialização. Assim, novos países passam a integrar as cadeias produtivas regionais,
como a China, Malásia e Tailândia. Desencadeando uma nova onda de crescimento
asiático (King & Du, 2018: p. 815; Masina, 2018: p. 263). Nesse cenário, a região do
Sudeste Asiático passa a receber grandes fluxos de investimentos ligados a uma
JANUS.NET, e-journal of International Relations
e-ISSN: 1647-7251
VOL. 16, Nº. 2
Novembro 2025-abril 2026, pp. 96-117
O Impacto da Iniciativa Faixa e Rota No Desenvolvimento do Sudeste Asiático com destaque
ao Camboja – A Continuação de um “Desenvolvimento Dependente”?
Paulo Victor Basílio Jeronymo
100
produção orientada para a exportação de manufaturas. Sendo características dessa o
trabalho intensivo e componentes de baixo valor agregado (Masina, 2018: pp. 263, 265).
Esse processo foi altamente influenciado pela crise de 1970 após a abdicação do gold
standard e o fim do sistema Bretton Woods, para além das crises do petróleo em
decorrência do fim do padrão do dólar. O que isso gera é uma crise de lucratividade nos
países desenvolvidos e um processo de estagflação, baixo crescimento e subida de
preços. Assim, estes Estados começam a dar maior prioridade a competitividade global
e não tanto ao desenvolvimento nacional, seguindo a lógica neoliberal (Carroll, 2020: pp.
48-49). Então, a globalização de frações de capital passam a ser privilegiadas pelas
economias ocidentais, realocando suas produções industriais a Estados com mão de obra
mais barata. Deste modo gerando as condições necessárias ao milagre econômico
asiático na década de 1980 (Carroll, 2020: p. 48).
Este fenômeno se acentua durante os finais da década de 1980 com a segunda onda de
expansão da divisão regional do trabalho, liderada pelos japoneses no Leste e Sudeste
Asiático. Isso porque, as indústrias japonesas transferiram sua produção para países
asiáticos em desenvolvimento. Para além do aumento de investimento direto estrangeiro
(IDE) de saída, até 1987 grande parte dos IDEs nipônicos eram dirigidos a Indonésia,
Singapura, Malásia, Tailândia e Filipinas (Carroll, 2020: pp. 49-51; Jones & Hameiri,
2020: p. 20; Masina, 2018: p. 263).
Logo, o que se evidencia é a ascensão das frações de capital internacionais em simultâneo
com constituição do mercado mundial, em outras palavras, com a expansão da
globalização econômica. Nessa conjuntura, os países do Sudeste Asiático, em especial a
Malásia, Tailândia e Indonésia, ou ASEAN 3, desde a década de 1980, se veem sujeitos
a adotarem uma postura que se ajuste a desse mercado global. Adotam, assim, uma
postura neoliberal, passando a dar maior prioridade ao capital transnacional, processos
de industrialização liderados por IDEs e liberalização comercial (Al-Fadhat, 2020: pp.
180-181; Masina, 2018: p. 254). Esta mudança de conduta se faz significativa para que
os países e suas elites locais possam permanecer competitivos neste ambiente e
prossigam com seus processos de acumulação de capital (Al-Fadhat, 2020: pp. 180-
181).
Nesse âmbito, no decorrer das décadas de 1980 e 1990, os países do Sudeste Asiático
em geral adotam uma economia orientada para a exportação de manufaturas. Também,
se constituem zonas econômicas especiais de maneira a atrair investimentos
internacionais (Gomez, Masina & Vignato, 2020: pp. 12-13; Jones & Hameiri, 2020: p.
203). Segundo, Gomez, Masina e Vignato (2020: p. 11) é durante a década de 1980 que
os IDEs se tornam a fonte primária de integração econômica regional. Ademais, esta
postura que vai de encontro com as tendências neoliberais também começa a se
demostrar no regionalismo do Sudeste Asiático, em iniciativas que buscam a
desregulamentação do comércio e investimentos em setores competitivos e orientadas
para a exportação, como a ASEAN Free Trade Area e a Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation
(Jones & Hameiri, 2020: p. 203).
Durante os anos de 1980 e começos dos anos 1990 há uma grande quantidade de IDEs
a entrar nos países do Sudeste Asiático, contribuindo para um amplo crescimento do
Produto Interno Bruto (PIB) destes (Gomez et al., 2020: p. 11). E durante a década de
JANUS.NET, e-journal of International Relations
e-ISSN: 1647-7251
VOL. 16, Nº. 2
Novembro 2025-abril 2026, pp. 96-117
O Impacto da Iniciativa Faixa e Rota No Desenvolvimento do Sudeste Asiático com destaque
ao Camboja – A Continuação de um “Desenvolvimento Dependente”?
Paulo Victor Basílio Jeronymo
101
1990, em geral, os Estados da Associação de Nações do Sudeste Asiático (ASEAN)
cresceram rapidamente, elevando sua classe média. Porém, a qualidade de vida dos
trabalhadores industriais não se mostraram melhores. Uma vez que, como já citado,
estes passam a adotar o modelo de desenvolvimento neoliberal, dando maior ênfase ao
lucro e não tanto ao bem-estar dos trabalhadores (Gomez et al., 2020: p. 5).
Depois, ocorre a crise econômica asiática de 1997-98, decorrente da falência de
instituições financeiras da Tailândia, que acaba por se alastrar aos demais Estados da
região que liberalizaram suas economias. Isso teria representado o fim do milagre
econômico asiático, mas o que se mostra a seguir é a continuação de padrões de
crescimento em alguns países do Sudeste Asiático, em especial nos ASEAN 3 (Carroll,
2020: p. 54; Masina, 2018: pp. 253-254; Pitakdumrongkit, 2023: p. 63). Um
crescimento considerado relevante dentro dos padrões internacionais, porém bem mais
lentos do que aqueles experienciados pela primeira geração das “Economias Asiáticas
Recentemente Industrializadas”, o Japão, Coreia do Sul, Taiwan e Singapura (Masina,
2018: pp. 253-254).
Figura 1. PIB per capita para países asiáticos selecionados, entre 1960 e 2008
Fonte: Masina (2018: p. 260).
Nesta conjuntura, mesmo com a crise, os Estados da região continuam a manter uma
postura reformista pró-mercado. Em 2003, buscou-se regionalmente a liberalização das
regras de investimentos e a construção da Comunidade Econômica ASEAN, favorável aos
negócios internacionais (Carroll, 2020: p. 55). Esta industrialização através de IDEs, que
ocorre principalmente nos ASEAN 3 e no Vietnã, depois dos meados dos anos 2000, é
caracterizada por ligações bem limitadas com empresas nacionais. Grande parte das
cadeias de fornecimento para produção orientada para a exportação encontravam-se sob
JANUS.NET, e-journal of International Relations
e-ISSN: 1647-7251
VOL. 16, Nº. 2
Novembro 2025-abril 2026, pp. 96-117
O Impacto da Iniciativa Faixa e Rota No Desenvolvimento do Sudeste Asiático com destaque
ao Camboja – A Continuação de um “Desenvolvimento Dependente”?
Paulo Victor Basílio Jeronymo
102
o controle de empresas estrangeiras. Além disso, a maioria dos componentes que
agregam valor eram importados (Masina, 2018: p. 269).
Isso ocorre uma vez que as redes de produção regional no Sudeste Asiático são
hierárquicas. Ou seja, empresas ou países parecem trabalhar ativamente para a
prevenção da difusão de tecnologias para outras empresas ou países, os quais operam
em níveis inferiores na divisão regional do trabalho, de maneira a se manterem mais
competitivos (Masina, 2018: p. 258). Ao decorrer das ondas de expansão e crescimento
asiático, as economias líderes deslocaram suas indústrias para economias inferiores.
Aumentando seu valor produtivo nas cadeias de valor e mantendo espaços com baixos
custos laborais (King & Du, 2018: p. 815).
Assim, a noção de que IDEs são grandes contribuidores nas transferências de tecnologias
para países em desenvolvimento não parece se mostrar verdade. O que se mostra é
apenas um impacto limitado dos IDEs nesse âmbito. Nesse sentido, políticas estatais de
absorção tecnológica e modernização industrial parecem se mostrar mais importantes
(Masina, 2018: p. 258). Logo, se faz necessário a intervenção estatal por meio de
incentivos e restrições para que se encoraje o progresso tecnológico. O mercado
solitariamente não consegue garantir investimentos apropriados para inovação industrial,
afinal, o mercado visa antes de tudo a lucratividade. E investimentos buscando inovações
em Estados em desenvolvimento apresentam demasiado risco (Masina, 2018: p. 259).
Porém, há desafios na implementação de políticas industriais estratégicas, não tanto
técnicos, mas sim políticos. Políticas devem distinguir os interesses e partes envolvidas,
direcionando incentivos e rendas para avanço tecnológico e desenvolvimento industrial
nacional (Masina, 2018: p. 261). Mas, o problema que se mostra nos países do Sudeste
Asiático, em especial os ASEAN 3, é a tomada do aparato estatal por interesses
específicos de elites locais fazendo com que a busca por lucratividade (renda)
influenciasse as políticas nacionais destes Estados (Jones & Hameiri, 2020: p. 217;
Masina, 2018: p. 261). Essa preponderância das elites locais que proporciona o controle
dessas sobre o modelo econômico de seus países se dá em grande parte pelo contexto
do pós-Guerra Fria e o abandono do modelo “socialista” (Hughes, 2020: p. 112).
Assim, as elites ligadas ao aparato estatal, passam a seguir o modelo neoliberal de
mercado frente ao contexto global, de forma a manterem-se competitivos no mercado
global e consolidar seu poder internamente (Hughes, 2020: p. 112). Ou seja, forças
dominantes do mercado passam a delinear o desenvolvimento industrial e os governos
intervém seletivamente em suas economias de forma a proteger os interesses destas
elites. Há, assim, uma liberalização seletiva das economias nacionais, mas não tanto da
política, visível no aumento de barreiras não tarifarias ao comércio, ao mesmo tempo
que tarifas diminuem, ver Figura 2 (Jones & Hameiri, 2020: pp. 217-218; Masina, 2018:
p. 261).
JANUS.NET, e-journal of International Relations
e-ISSN: 1647-7251
VOL. 16, Nº. 2
Novembro 2025-abril 2026, pp. 96-117
O Impacto da Iniciativa Faixa e Rota No Desenvolvimento do Sudeste Asiático com destaque
ao Camboja – A Continuação de um “Desenvolvimento Dependente”?
Paulo Victor Basílio Jeronymo
103
Figura 2. Tarifas médias e número de barreiras não tarifárias na ASEAN
Fonte: Jones & Hameiri (2020: p. 217).
Logo, pode-se dizer que muitos dos problemas enfrentados pelos Estados do Sudeste
Asiático comumente identificados como a “armadilha de renda média” são oriundos de
uma industrialização dependente que se desenvolve com a adoção do neoliberalismo
(Masina, 2018: p. 262).
Neste contexto, apesar de indústrias de alta tecnologia fazerem parte das economias
regionais, as suas produções representam somente uma pequena fração do valor. Assim,
em sua generalidade os Estados do Sudeste Asiático situam-se como intermediários nas
redes produtivas regionais. Afinal, esses países dependem de insumos estrangeiros de
alto valor. Todavia, essa conjuntura beneficiou o desenvolvimento econômico orientado
para exportação, já que havia uma ampla demanda de commodities, por conta do boom
da manufatura chinesa. Ocorre uma alta demanda chinesa por insumos entre 2003 e
2011 aumentando os preços das commodities (Carroll, 2020: pp. 56, 59-61). Esse
quadro de crescimento teve continuidade mesmo com a crise financeira de 2008,
principalmente nos ASEAN 3, é entendida mais como uma consequência da crise global
e da fragilidade das principais economias globais, do que consequência de suas próprias
capacidades (Carroll, 2020: p. 59; Masina, 2018: p. 254).
É no período posterior da crise asiática, no começo dos anos 2000, que os chineses
passam a ser mais atuantes nas economias do Sudeste Asiático. Em 2001, esta é
admitida na Organização Mundial do Comércio e passa ser reconhecida como a “fábrica
do mundo”. Assim, a China passa a se mostrar como um relevante competidor para os
Estados do Sudeste Asiático, tornando-se um fornecedor de mão de obra barata e de
produção de baixo custo. Possivelmente dificultando o desenvolvimento desses países
por sua ascensão como um espaço de fabricação de baixo custo, mas, ao mesmo tempo,
cria-se uma alta demanda por commodities. Nesse cenário, os Estados do Sudeste
Asiático integram redes de produção regionais, nas quais componentes são produzidos e
JANUS.NET, e-journal of International Relations
e-ISSN: 1647-7251
VOL. 16, Nº. 2
Novembro 2025-abril 2026, pp. 96-117
O Impacto da Iniciativa Faixa e Rota No Desenvolvimento do Sudeste Asiático com destaque
ao Camboja – A Continuação de um “Desenvolvimento Dependente”?
Paulo Victor Basílio Jeronymo
104
combinados em produtos em diversas localidades. Mas, agora a China encontrava-se
numa posição mais central no contexto regional (Carroll, 2020: pp. 56, 59-60).
Para além disso, o papel mais ativo da China na economia do Sudeste Asiático se dá uma
vez que essa escolhe por não desvalorizar sua moeda a seguir a crise asiática,
aumentando seu nível competitivo nas exportações. Também, manifestou seu apoio a
Chiang Mai Initiative, criando-se diversos acordos bilaterais de troca de moeda. A China,
assim, proporcionou uma ajuda essencial para a recuperação destes Estados,
fortalecendo os pilares da cooperação econômica regional (Cardoso, 2008: p. 96; Tong,
2021: p. 110).
Posto tudo isso, pode-se dizer que os países do Sudeste Asiático detém em sua
generalidade um desenvolvimento econômico orientado a exportação de manufaturas e
apoiado pela mão de obra barata e intensiva. Consequentemente se tornando
progressivamente mais dependentes do capital internacional, tecnologia estrangeira e
dos mercados de exportação (Carroll, 2020: pp. 49, 52-53; Gomez et al., 2020: p. 12).
Sob esse contexto, que é agravado pela inabilidade dos governos nacionais de
implementarem políticas de desenvolvimento industrial, estes países não são capazes de
aprimorar tecnologicamente seus meios produtivos. Deste modo, mantêm-se em sua
maioria como fornecedores de commodities para mercados estrangeiros, também, de
produtos simples e de montagem final. Assim, se tornaram um armazém de produção de
baixo valor agregado (Carroll, 2020: p. 53; Gomez et al., 2020: p. 12).
Logo, no Sudeste Asiático, em especial no Camboja, Laos, Myanmar e Vietnã, a transição
para uma economia de mercado foi direcionada por forças sociais preocupadas pela
manutenção de seu poder político e controle sobre importantes ativos econômicos
(Hughes, 2020: p. 113). Nesta transição, as elites domésticas investiram em sistemas
de extração simples e protegidos pelo aparelho estatal, evitando a construção de bases
industriais competitivas a nível internacional. O que seria arriscado no contexto de
desenvolvimento tardio que se encontravam. Para além de que, os baixos custos laborais
atraíram investimentos estrangeiros para determinados setores, particularmente o de
vestuário. E mesmo que certos países tenham obtido maior sucesso na produção
orientada para a exportação, como o Vietnã, suas indústrias continuam a ser dominadas
pela mão de obra intensiva, dependentes de multinacionais e produção de baixo valor
agregado (Hughes, 2020: p. 113).
Assim, talvez seja mais apropriado entendermos a condição no Sudeste Asiático não
tanto como uma “armadilha de renda média”, mas sim uma “armadilha de
desenvolvimento dependente”. Esses Estados encontram-se vulneráveis, uma vez que o
processo de reorganização das cadeias produtivas regionais se mostrou constante,
devido à procura por menores custos, movendo processos produtivos para diversos
países. Também, pela sua dependência por IDEs, necessários para a manutenção de suas
posições nesta cadeia regional. E, consequentemente, afetando os trabalhadores, afinal
o trabalho intensivo também se mostra necessário para esta manutenção na cadeia
regional e para competitividade internacional.
Logo, salários, condições laborais e direitos trabalhistas acabam por não se mostrar de
grande interesse para as elites nesses Estados, afinal essas procuram permanecer
competitivas dentro do mercado global e dar continuidade aos seus processos de
JANUS.NET, e-journal of International Relations
e-ISSN: 1647-7251
VOL. 16, Nº. 2
Novembro 2025-abril 2026, pp. 96-117
O Impacto da Iniciativa Faixa e Rota No Desenvolvimento do Sudeste Asiático com destaque
ao Camboja – A Continuação de um “Desenvolvimento Dependente”?
Paulo Victor Basílio Jeronymo
105
concentração de capital (Al-Fadhat, 2020: p. 180; Masina, 2018: p. 269). Nesse
contexto, a adoção da lógica neoliberal e a expansão de um capitalismo financeiro em
escala global, contribuiu para a degradação da condição trabalhista nestes países. A
terceirização e precarização parecem se mostram características desse modelo, que
funciona em um ambiente de competição internacional.
Estratégia Regional Chinesa no Sudeste Asiático e a Iniciativa Faixa e
Rota
A China emergiu como uma das principais vencedoras da globalização, usufruindo da
interdependência econômica e, por consequência, política que se intensificam através do
processo de globalização, como pilares para o desenvolvimento de sua capacidade
econômica (Cardoso, 2008: p. 54). Também, o país tirou proveito das relações
econômicas transfronteiriças, globais e regionais, que ganham força com o processo de
globalização, e das relações econômicas e redes produtivas regionais já estabelecidas
pelas economias asiáticas mais desenvolvidas antes do aparecimento da Iniciativa Faixa
e Rota (IFR). Dessa forma, a China ascende no mercado mundial e suas indústrias
promovem-se dentro das cadeias de valor, consagrando-se como, segundo o Fundo
Monetário Internacional (2025a), a segunda maior economia mundial em termos
nominais na atualidade. Agora com essa grande capacidade econômica, esta passa a
acentuar o uso de instrumentos econômicos de statecraft, o que é refletido pela sua
atuação na IFR.
A IFR se mostrará como um importante instrumento para a continuação da perseguição
dos interesses nacionais chineses. Ou seja, o desenvolvimento nacional como forma de
evitar um novo século de humilhação e projetar-se internacionalmente como uma
potência (Cardoso, 2008: pp. 17, 27, 72). A iniciativa se mostrará importante para a
continuação do crescimento econômico chinês, que é a base de seu poder nacional, afinal
responde às insuficiências internas do país, ao mesmo tempo que se demostra como uma
importante ferramenta na construção de uma ordem (econômica) regional, com a China
no seu centro.
Como estratégia, a IFR busca incentivar o crescimento e integração econômica entre a
China e as diversas regiões que fazem parte da iniciativa. Há pontos de ligação entre
cada região e a China, que são agrupados em “corredores econômicos”. Que por sua vez
encontram-se conectados através de pontes terrestres, ferroviárias ou marítimas na
Eurásia. Assim, há uma rota terrestre conectando a China à Europa e uma rota marítima
que conecta o Mar do Sul da China (MSC) à Oceania e ao Oceano Índico, desse ponto
conectando as costas asiáticas e africanas à Europa (Rojanaleekul, Pungchompoo &
Sirivongpaisal, 2022: pp. 163-164; Tomé, 2021: p. 167). Assim, o desenvolvimento de
infraestruturas é um dos principais pilares da iniciativa. Nesse contexto, o Corredor
Econômico China-Península da Indochina é uma das principais regiões de conexão para
a iniciativa (Rojanaleekul et al., 2022: pp. 163-164).
O desenvolvimento desse corredor econômico visa ampliar o acesso chinês aos mercados
regionais através do estabelecimento de redes ferroviárias que conectaram diversas
províncias chinesas a países do Sudeste Asiático, nesse caso, Vietnã, Laos, Camboja,
Tailândia, Malásia e Singapura. Além do elemento terrestre, há um componente marítimo
JANUS.NET, e-journal of International Relations
e-ISSN: 1647-7251
VOL. 16, Nº. 2
Novembro 2025-abril 2026, pp. 96-117
O Impacto da Iniciativa Faixa e Rota No Desenvolvimento do Sudeste Asiático com destaque
ao Camboja – A Continuação de um “Desenvolvimento Dependente”?
Paulo Victor Basílio Jeronymo
106
do corredor econômico e ligações entre ambos. Nesse sentido, há o desenvolvimento de
ferrovias ligando os portos de Kuantan e Klang na Malásia, oferecendo uma passagem
alternativa do Oceano Índico para o MSC, importante para diminuir os riscos associados
ao conhecido “dilema de Malaca” (Rojanaleekul et al., 2022: p. 164).
Outro importante aspecto da iniciativa é a cooperação industrial. Nesse âmbito, as
conexões geradas pela iniciativa procuram estabelecer um processo produtivo fora da
China. Dessa forma integrando mais ainda os países da região numa cadeia de
fornecimento com a China. Ajudando, assim, com o problema de excesso produtivo
chinês, especialmente nos setores de alumínio eletrolítico, ferro e aço. Nesse sentido, os
fabricantes chineses teriam um acesso mais estável de recursos e mercados. Para além
disso, a iniciativa auxilia no desenvolvimento de províncias menos desenvolvidas ao oeste
e centro da China. Também, possibilita novos canais de escoamento para grandes
reservas de moeda estrangeira e promove, de forma limitada, a internacionalização da
moeda chinesa (Cai, 2015: pp. 837-838; Rojanaleekul et al., 2022: p. 164).
Logo, a IFR se demostra importante para o aprofundamento das relações econômicas
entre os países do Sudeste Asiático e a China. Nesse âmbito, os Estados Unidos da
América e o Japão detêm maiores ligações nas cadeias de produção globais com a China
do que com os Estados da Associação de Nações do Sudeste Asiático (ASEAN). De acordo
com Taguchi e Zhao (2021: p. 149), isso ocorre pela carência de performance logística
nos países da ASEAN, onde há insuficiência de infraestruturas conectivas e de transporte.
A densidade da rede ferroviária dos países da IFR, incluindo o Sudeste Asiático, é baixa
se comparada a média global de 8.48 km/1000 km². Nesse âmbito, países como o
Camboja, Indonésia e Filipinas continuam a utilizar linhas ferroviárias construídas dentro
de seus primeiros anos ou com ajuda de outros Estados (Wang, Lim, Zhang, Zhao & Lee,
2020: p. 293). É estimado um vácuo na infraestrutura do Sudeste Asiático na casa dos
8 trilhões de dólares (Cai, 2015: pp. 839-840).
Aqui a IFR detém grande relevância, afinal a construção destas infraestruturas têm a
possibilidade auxiliar no fortalecimento das conexões nas cadeias produtivas entre os
países do Sudeste Asiático e desses com a China. Consequentemente alargando a
dependência econômica destes com a China. Afinal, estes países se interligam cada vez
mais, fortalecendo uma ordem econômica regional com a China no seu centro.
Aumentado a participação comercial chinesa no comércio total e no valor agregado
estrangeiro nas exportações do Sudeste Asiático.
Assim, o que parece se demostrar é a sutil aplicação do statecraft econômico pelos
chineses. Nesse sentido, a influência econômica e, consequentemente, política se daria
pelo aumento gradual da dependência econômica dos Estados do Sudeste Asiático à
China. Logo, a IFR tratar-se-ia da continuação e intensificação da estratégia
geoeconômica e das relações econômicas entre os países do Sudeste Asiático e a China.
Para além de demonstrar o caráter pragmático e paciente da estratégia nacional chinesa,
na qual os objetivos são colocados a longo-prazo (Cardoso, 2008: pp. 95-96). Essa
progressiva dependência econômica dos Estados do Sudeste Asiático decorre do
gradativo aumento da exposição econômica desses com a China, perceptível na
participação comercial chinesa nestas economias, ver Figura 3. Segundo o Observatory
of Economic Complexity (2025), em 2023 a China representou 18% do total das
exportações e 27.4% das importações da ASEAN.
JANUS.NET, e-journal of International Relations
e-ISSN: 1647-7251
VOL. 16, Nº. 2
Novembro 2025-abril 2026, pp. 96-117
O Impacto da Iniciativa Faixa e Rota No Desenvolvimento do Sudeste Asiático com destaque
ao Camboja – A Continuação de um “Desenvolvimento Dependente”?
Paulo Victor Basílio Jeronymo
107
Figura 3. China – ASEAN – Participação nas exportações, participação nas importações e
participação comercial total, 1990–2019
Fonte: Raghavan, Khan & Devadason (2021: p. 15).
As cadeias produtivas regionais de manufaturados estão conectadas através de um
Estado, a China. Assim, os Estados do Sudeste Asiático podem ser expostos a choques
econômicos partidos da China. A influência sínica nas cadeias produtivas regionais com
o Sudeste Asiático e a exposição desses a China como fornecedor e mercado fica
perceptível no crescimento da participação da China no valor agregado estrangeiro nas
exportações da ASEAN
1
(Raghavan, Khan & Devadason, 2021: pp. 19-20).
Além disso, a exposição econômica da região também decorre através do constante
aumento do investimento direto estrangeiro (IDE) da China no decorrer das últimas
décadas. Porém, mesmo com constantes aumentos apenas três economias da ASEAN,
Camboja, Laos e Myanmar, podem ser tidas como dependentes de IDEs chineses. Isso,
quando se é considerado os padrões de fluxos históricos e o padrão de estoque atual
(Tong, 2020: pp. 17-18), ver Tabela 1. Nesse sentido, a participação da China nos fluxos
totais de IDE de entrada na ASEAN cresceu de 6% em 2010-2012 para 7.3% em 2021-
2023. E empresas chinesas ainda se apresentam como o maior grupo de investidores no
Camboja, Laos e Myanmar (ASEAN Secretariat, 2024: p. 21).
Ademais, há o fornecimento de ajuda econômica/financeira que se dá principalmente
através “outros fluxos oficiais” (OFO) e não tanto através de “assistência oficial ao
desenvolvimento” (AOD). E, assim como os IDEs, encontram-se muitas vezes ligados
aos projetos de infraestrutura da IFR. Este tipo de ajuda econômica, OFO, dá maior
importância ao desenvolvimento de infraestruturas e ao crescimento econômico. Para
além de normalmente seguir o princípio de “não interferência nos assuntos internos”. Por
outro lado, as AODs, as quais os países ocidentais desenvolvidos dão maior preferência,
priorizam os setores de governança, sociais e capacitação da sociedade civil. Comumente
impondo maiores condições e seletividade, as quais expressam lógicas liberais de “boa
1
O valor agregado chinês nas exportações cresceu em todos os países da ASEAN durante os anos de 1990 e
2018. No Camboja, de 2.2% para 25.7%; Indonésia, 3.5% para 18.2%; Laos, 2.5% para 10.7%; Malásia,
2.6% para 18.1%; Myanmar, 2% para 8.1%; Filipinas, 1.9% para 15.3%; Tailândia, 3% para 24.7%; e Vietnã,
5% para 22.8% (Taguchi & Zhao, 2022: pp. 131-132).
JANUS.NET, e-journal of International Relations
e-ISSN: 1647-7251
VOL. 16, Nº. 2
Novembro 2025-abril 2026, pp. 96-117
O Impacto da Iniciativa Faixa e Rota No Desenvolvimento do Sudeste Asiático com destaque
ao Camboja – A Continuação de um “Desenvolvimento Dependente”?
Paulo Victor Basílio Jeronymo
108
governança”. Nesse contexto, a ajuda econômica da China apresentaria menos restrições
impostas e seguiriam a lógica de desenvolvimento mútuo. Logo, favorecem os interesses
políticos das elites locais, que não demonstram interesse nas agendas liberais
democráticas, mas sim em proteger suas posições de poder. Ao mesmo tempo, a China
se beneficia pela sua crescente influência econômica e política com essas elites (Rosser,
2020: pp. 300-302, 305).
Tabela 1. Participação da China no total de IDE interno do mundo, dos países em
desenvolvimento e da ASEAN (%)
Fonte: Tong (2020: p. 17).
Porém, os projetos de infraestrutura chinesa, nos quais é comum inclusão de
trabalhadores chineses, são muitas vezes considerados armadilhas de dívidas e
associados à corrupção e má governança. Esse ponto de vista é corroborado pela
evidência de que grande parte dos países do Sudeste Asiático são compostos por regimes
considerados não democráticos
2
, subordinados às suas elites. Essas que tiram vantagens
através dos acordos bilaterais com os chineses. Desse sentido, há receios quanto as
potenciais repercussões nos níveis de dívidas provenientes dos projetos da IFR (Rosser,
2020: p. 308).
Estas podem contribuir para a perpetuação destes Estados como países subdesenvolvidos
de média renda. Para além disso, podem ser citadas receios no âmbito securitário,
relativo os objetivos chineses no Mar do Sul da China (MSC). Uma importante região no
sentido estratégico e econômico, por se tratar de um local de importantes rotas
comerciais e com importantes reservas de hidrocarbonetos e pescados. Fatores
importantes para salvaguardar a continuidade do crescimento econômico chinês. Para
2
De acordo com o V-Dem (2025), Laos, Myanmar, Vietnã são autocracias fechadas. O Camboja, Filipinas,
Indonésia e Tailândia são autocracias eleitorais e, a Malásia é apontada como uma democracia eleitoral (Marina,
Altman, Angiolillo, Fernandes, God & Lindberg, 2025: p. 14).
JANUS.NET, e-journal of International Relations
e-ISSN: 1647-7251
VOL. 16, Nº. 2
Novembro 2025-abril 2026, pp. 96-117
O Impacto da Iniciativa Faixa e Rota No Desenvolvimento do Sudeste Asiático com destaque
ao Camboja – A Continuação de um “Desenvolvimento Dependente”?
Paulo Victor Basílio Jeronymo
109
além de que a presença no MSC parece se demostrar importante para a segurança
nacional chinesa, grandes centros urbanos encontram-se nas costas. Nesse âmbito, com
a globalização, fatores econômicos ganham uma grande importância securitária para os
Estados e seus objetivos nacionais (Cardoso, 2008: pp. 113-116; Tomé, 2021: p. 162).
Para além disso, pode-se dizer que a globalização coloca os Estados em contato uns com
os outros e fortalece a relevância da economia e do comércio como fundamentos de
poder. Ou seja, o MSC é uma região de extrema importância para a China no atual
sistema internacional (Cardoso, 2008: p. 112).
Ademais, há preocupações quanto a possíveis defaults devido às taxas de juros presentes
nos empréstimos chineses. Tanto as AODs e as OFOs chinesas são mais elevadas quando
se comparados aos do Banco Mundial (Cheong, 2022: p. 8). Altas taxas de juros geram
maiores possibilidades de um default, por isso credores chineses parecem dar preferência
a colateralização como estratégia de mitigação de risco. Assim, os mutuários fixam como
garantia algum ativo ou posse, por exemplo, exportação de commodities ou rendimentos
futuros. Os chineses aparentam reconhecer as apreensões dos Estados quanto a uma
possível armadilha de dívida. Assim, são oferecidas garantias e os interesses econômicos
são colocados em um nível superior de relevância, quando comparados à tomada de
ativos estrategicamente importantes (Cheong, 2022: pp. 9-11).
Seria contraditório com os interesses chineses na IFR de promoção do crescimento
econômico, desenvolvimento nacional e formação de uma ordem (econômica) regional
centrada na China se o propósito explícito dos empréstimos da China fosse a captura dos
ativos dos mutuários por meio de armadilhas de dívida. Afinal, desestimularia ainda mais
os países do Sudeste Asiático a fazerem parte da iniciativa.
Logo, a China aparenta se utilizar de instrumentos econômicos de statecraft para atingir
fins políticos. Nesse sentido, esta parece preferir o uso positivo desses instrumentos,
visando o longo-prazo, de maneira a ganhar influência com as elites dos Estados do
Sudeste Asiático. Dessa forma, busca-se construir uma ordem econômica regional com
a China no seu centro, através do progressivo aumento da exposição econômica dos
países do Sudeste Asiático à China. Aumentado gradativamente a dependência
econômica e, consequentemente, política destas elites e de seus Estados à China.
A Iniciativa Faixa e Rota e seu impacto no desenvolvimento do Sudeste
Asiático: análise do caso do Camboja
Esta secção busca investigar quais são os possíveis impactos econômicos da Iniciativa
Faixa e Rota (IFR) nas economias do Sudeste Asiático, através da análise do caso do
Camboja. Os projetos de infraestrutura da IFR acabarão por gerar consequências
econômicas negativas as economias participantes? Perpetuar-se-ia um modelo de
“desenvolvimento dependente” nestes Estados? Nesta secção entende-se que não é
necessário a distinção entre investimentos no âmbito da IFR e os demais investimentos
chineses para a realização do estudo. Afinal, grande parte dos investimentos chineses no
Sudeste Asiático antes da IFR destinava-se a projetos similares, como ferrovias e
rodovias. Também, após 2017, o governo chinês incluiu quase todos os investimentos
passados como elementos dos projetos da IFR (Hsueh, 2023: p. 1021). Ademais, o ganho
de influência econômica e política pela China ocorre também através de outros
JANUS.NET, e-journal of International Relations
e-ISSN: 1647-7251
VOL. 16, Nº. 2
Novembro 2025-abril 2026, pp. 96-117
O Impacto da Iniciativa Faixa e Rota No Desenvolvimento do Sudeste Asiático com destaque
ao Camboja – A Continuação de um “Desenvolvimento Dependente”?
Paulo Victor Basílio Jeronymo
110
investimentos diretos estrangeiros (IDE), não apenas por meio de investimentos em
nome da IFR. Logo, se torna quase impossível e teoricamente desnecessário diferenciar
com clareza quais IDEs fazem parte da IFR e quais não.
De acordo com o Banco Nacional do Camboja, o país acumulou um total de 41 bilhões
de dólares em IDE de 1993 até 2021. Desse total, a China representa 43%, um pouco
mais de 18 bilhões de dólares. Seguida pela Coreia do Sul, representando 11% ou 4.9
bilhões de dólares (Pani & Tobing, 2025: p. 35). Também, de acordo com o American
Enterprise Institute (2025), o investimento acumulado de investidores e construtoras
chinesas entre 2013 e 2025 foi de 17.51 bilhões de dólares para o Camboja. Os setores
de transporte e energia foram responsáveis por grande parte dos investimentos,
representando 9.8 e 4.39 bilhões de dólares, respectivamente. Em conjunto,
representam aproximadamente 81% do total de investimentos chineses no período.
Devido a este grande número de investimentos levantam-se questões acerca da dívida
do Camboja. Assim, em relação à dívida externa total do Camboja, esta tem tido um
aumento significativo devido aos projetos da IFR. Estima-se que mais de 41% da dívida
externa acumulada do país, equivalente a 15% de seu Produto Interno Bruto (PIB), é
mantida pela China. Também, a China se apresenta como o principal credor do Camboja,
responsável por 41.7% do total da dívida externa do Camboja, chegando a 9.47 bilhões
de dólares em meados de 2022 (Pani & Tobing, 2025: pp. 36, 43; Yu, 2024: p. 114).
Também, a dívida pública bruta, por porcentagem do PIB, foi de aproximadamente 26%
ou 11.2 bilhões de dólares em 2023. Nesse âmbito, a dívida bilateral representa a maior
parte da dívida externa total, cerca de 64%, mais da metade devido à China.
Apresentando um baixo risco de superendividamento, mas vulnerável a choques nos
passivos contingentes
3
(Fundo Monetário Internacional [FMI], 2025b: pp. 15, 88; FMI,
2025c).
Esse influxo de capital estrangeiro impulsionou o progresso econômico do Camboja e
mitigou as principais restrições de infraestrutura no país. O Camboja ocupou no Relatório
de Competitividade Global de 2019
4
a 106ª posição entre 141 economias, demostrando
uma baixa qualidade de infraestruturas, principalmente rodoviárias (Yu, 2024: p. 109).
Segundo estimativas da PWC de outubro de 2022, para obter um crescimento sustentado
e melhorar os padrões sociais e econômicos de sua população, o país necessitará de
investimentos em infraestrutura de aproximadamente 28 bilhões de dólares até 2040
(Yu, 2024: p. 109). Nesse contexto, entre 2004 e 2021 a China financiou
aproximadamente 101 projetos de desenvolvimento no Camboja, especialmente em
infraestrutura rodoviária e de transporte (Pani & Tobing, 2025: pp. 36, 43).
Assim, o IDE chinês impulsionou de forma significativa o crescimento econômico do
Camboja, tornando-o uma das economias com crescimento mais rápido entre os países
da Associação de Nações do Sudeste Asiático (ASEAN) na última década. De acordo com
o ASEAN Secretariat, com estatísticas de 2022, a taxa de crescimento médio do Camboja
foi de 5.7% entre 2012 e 2021. Acredita-se que esse crescimento é resultado de um
boom nas indústrias de vestuário e têxteis (Yu, 2024: p. 108), segundo o FMI (2025b:
3
Referem-se a obrigações financeiras possíveis ou incertas, cujo reconhecimento e valor dependem de eventos
futuros que não estão sob o controle das empresas ou do governo.
4
Últimos dados disponíveis.
JANUS.NET, e-journal of International Relations
e-ISSN: 1647-7251
VOL. 16, Nº. 2
Novembro 2025-abril 2026, pp. 96-117
O Impacto da Iniciativa Faixa e Rota No Desenvolvimento do Sudeste Asiático com destaque
ao Camboja – A Continuação de um “Desenvolvimento Dependente”?
Paulo Victor Basílio Jeronymo
111
p. 43) a indústria têxtil tem se mantido consistentemente o maior impulsionador deste
crescimento, explicando 21% do crescimento médio do PIB no período de 2010 a 2019.
Também, o turismo e a construção de infraestruturas financiadas por IDE, tiveram um
papel relevante neste crescimento (Yu, 2024: p. 108).
Estas informações vão de acordo com aquelas divulgadas pelo FMI (2025b: p. 15;
2025c), o crescimento real do PIB do Camboja foi de 5% em 2023, impulsionado
principalmente pelo desempenho setor manufatureiro. Também, pela recuperação do
turismo e a retomada das atividades em setores correlatos. Já em 2024, a forte
recuperação do setor de vestuário, juntamente com o crescimento das exportações
agrícolas e a melhora constante do turismo contribuíram para uma maior aceleração do
crescimento econômico. Assim, ocorrendo um crescimento real do PIB de 6% em 2024.
Mas, há questionamentos sobre a governança do Camboja, que é movido
economicamente por IDEs, em sua maior parte chineses. De acordo com o Transparency
International’s Corruption Perceptions Index (2025) o Camboja em 2024, encontrava-se
na 158ª posição de 180 países. Também, de acordo com World Justice Project Rule of
Law Index, em 2022
5
, o país encontrava-se em 141º. Refletindo desafios na governança
e emprego da lei (Pani & Tobing, 2025: p. 44) Assim, os IDEs tem a possibilidade de
contribuir para o acúmulo de capital e consolidação política da elite do Camboja, e não
tanto para o bem-estar da população em geral (Pani & Tobing, 2025: p. 45; Yu, 2024:
p. 113).
Afinal, o IDE chinês é caracterizado por um grande envolvimento estatal, priorização de
setores estratégicos e uso de empréstimos concessionais muitas vezes vinculados a
empreiteiros e fornecedores chineses. Esse modelo também é visível no desenvolvimento
de infraestruturas no âmbito da IFR, na qual o financiamento é constituído de maneira a
beneficiar empresas estatais chinesas. Assim, ao mesmo tempo, garantindo influência
econômica e, consequentemente, política sobre os países beneficiários (Pani & Tobing,
2025: p. 37). O investimento estrangeiro tem a capacidade de exercer uma relevante
influência sobre políticas locais gerando um ambiente favorável ao investimento. Nesse
contexto, a dependência de IDEs fortalece estas elites, que se beneficiam
desproporcionalmente desses investimentos, afinal possuem poder político (Pani &
Tobing, 2025: p. 41).
Neste contexto, os chineses fazem investimentos substanciais de maneira a garantir
acesso a recursos naturais, assegurando as necessidades de sua população. Há no
Camboja reservas relevantes de petróleo e gás natural, assim como potenciais recursos
minerais e terras agricultáveis. Nesse âmbito, os investimentos estrangeiros no Camboja
foram e são essenciais para moldar a produtividade doméstica e estabilidade financeira
do país. E a China se posiciona como o maior investidor. Assim, há uma relação de
dependência em que o país central nesse contexto, a China, foca seus investimentos em
matérias-primas, recursos naturais e agricultura, para assim suprir suas necessidades de
consumo e produção internas. Ao mesmo tempo, cria oportunidades para direcionar a
economia do Camboja, país periférico, para servir aos interesses nacionais chineses (Pani
& Tobing, 2025: pp. 42-43).
5
Últimos dados disponíveis para o Camboja.
JANUS.NET, e-journal of International Relations
e-ISSN: 1647-7251
VOL. 16, Nº. 2
Novembro 2025-abril 2026, pp. 96-117
O Impacto da Iniciativa Faixa e Rota No Desenvolvimento do Sudeste Asiático com destaque
ao Camboja – A Continuação de um “Desenvolvimento Dependente”?
Paulo Victor Basílio Jeronymo
112
A China é o maior parceiro comercial do Camboja. Segundo estatísticas do Ministério do
Comércio da China, o volume de comércio bilateral entre a China e o Camboja cresceu
de 3.77 bilhões de dólares em 2013 para 13.67 bilhões em 2021. Nesse âmbito, a balança
comercial se mostra favorável à China, que usufruiu de um crescente superávit comercial
com o país de 2013 a 2021. A China foi o segundo principal destino das exportações do
Camboja em 2021, representando 8.3% do valor total das exportações, e constituiu a
maior fonte de importações do país, correspondendo a 33.9% do valor total importações
(Yu, 2025: p. 107). Demostrando a relação de assimetria entre ambos os Estados, país
central e periférico, e a crescente dependência econômica do Camboja, que se encontra
cada vez mais amarrado as cadeias produtivas regionais, que tem a China em posição
de destaque.
Para além disto, o IDE chinês pode ter a capacidade de alterar as dinâmicas das
atividades econômicas e empresas locais devido à presença de seus interesses
comerciais. Lojas, vendedores e operadores turísticos cambojanos não conseguem
competir com o crescente número de hotéis, cassinos, restaurantes e lojas de varejo de
propriedade chinesa. Para além do que, turistas chineses, os quais são uma parcela
relevante dos turistas, tendem a consumir produtos e serviços de seus conterrâneos.
Assim, o efeito econômico de gotejamento ou trickle-down é limitado. Esse cenário se dá
principalmente na região de Sihanoukville, uma Zona Econômica Especial sob o guarda-
chuva da IFR (Pani & Tobing, 2025: pp. 37, 47; Yu, 2024: pp. 111, 113).
Ou seja, há um processo de marginalização econômica, novamente levantando
preocupações de que os benefícios econômicos dos investimentos chineses favoreçam
majoritariamente as elites chinesas e locais, excluindo o cambojano comum. Além disso,
o rápido desenvolvimento conduziu um influxo de migrantes e trabalhadores chineses,
para além do emprego de mão-de-obra chinesa nos investimentos na esfera da IFR,
reduzindo as oportunidades de emprego para os trabalhadores locais e, possivelmente,
suprimindo salários (Pani & Tobing, 2025: pp. 37, 47). Provavelmente aumentando o
nível de desigualdade no país.
Logo, ainda que o investimento estrangeiro conceda benefícios de curto prazo, como na
promoção do crescimento econômico e do desenvolvimento de infraestrutura, a
dependência excessiva do capital estrangeiro promove um relacionamento
desequilibrado, suscetível à influência econômica e política do país investidor (Pani &
Tobing, 2025: p. 48). Ademais, a governança inadequada amplifica as consequências
negativas da gestão do investimento estrangeiro. A governança debilitada do Camboja,
reconhecida por altos níveis de corrupção, aplicação ineficaz da lei e priorização do
financiamento estrangeiro, restringe o gerenciamento do investimento estrangeiro para
a perseguição dos interesses nacionais. Assim, o Camboja tornou-se cada vez mais
dependente dos investimentos chineses, sem a capacidade de controlar e mitigar seus
impactos negativos (Pani & Tobing, 2025: p. 48). E mantêm-se como majoritariamente
um país voltado a exportação de produtos de baixo valor agregado, o setor de
manufaturados como o de têxteis continua a ser um dos principais condutores no
crescimento do país (FMI, 2025b: pp. 43-44).
No entanto, considerando que o Camboja é um aliado próximo da China e que a
construção de infraestruturas em larga escala desempenham um papel essencial no
Sudeste Asiático no âmbito da IFR, não parece lógico a China conduzir o país à falência
JANUS.NET, e-journal of International Relations
e-ISSN: 1647-7251
VOL. 16, Nº. 2
Novembro 2025-abril 2026, pp. 96-117
O Impacto da Iniciativa Faixa e Rota No Desenvolvimento do Sudeste Asiático com destaque
ao Camboja – A Continuação de um “Desenvolvimento Dependente”?
Paulo Victor Basílio Jeronymo
113
em decorrência de seus projetos de infraestrutura. Isso geraria uma imagem negativa
da IFR, o que dificultaria sua implementação futura, tanto a nível regional quanto global
(Yu, 2024: p. 114). Além disso, não se faz necessário a China deter grandes níveis de
influência econômica e política em todos os países do Sudeste Asiático. Uma vez que o
consenso da ASEAN em relação a questões relativas ao Mar do Sul da China pode ser
quebrado apenas por alguns, impedindo respostas conjuntas. Juntamente a isso, o
desequilíbrio econômico e militar destes Estados em relação à China coloca essa em uma
posição de vantagem.
Assim, parece que a IFR através da construção de infraestruturas, em sua maioria
rodoviárias e de transporte, tem a capacidade de gerar efeitos econômicos positivos aos
países participantes. Principalmente àqueles que apresentam baixos níveis de
infraestrutura e são dependentes de IDE para seu desenvolvimento. Promovendo o
crescimento econômico, possivelmente, em decorrência das melhoras logísticas e maior
integração nas redes produtivas regionais. Porém, há a possibilidade de continuação da
atual divisão do trabalho ao nível regional e global. Para além de haver a possibilidade
da manutenção das desigualdades internas nos países, principalmente se houver
elevados níveis de corrupção entre suas elites econômicas e políticas. Como é o caso do
Camboja.
Considerações finais
A Iniciativa Faixa e Rota (IFR) liga localidades com características econômicas e políticas
específicas, as quais detém relevância para a China devido ao seu posicionamento
geográfico relativo no contexto da iniciativa. Logo, os projetos de infraestrutura são
alocados a determinado país de acordo com o papel a ser desempenhado no contexto da
IFR e de uma economia regional, a qual a China encontra-se numa posição de destaque.
Em outras palavras, de acordo com o que é mais favorável para estratégia regional
chinesa.
A China, que se situa numa posição menos dependente no cenário regional, parece ter
exibido com o decorrer do tempo sua predileção pela utilização positiva do statecraft
econômico como forma de influenciar politicamente os Estados do Sudeste Asiático. De
maneira a fomentar e ampliar confiança, interesses comuns, demostrar-se como um bom
parceiro regional para o comércio e diminuir a percepção de ameaça econômica e
securitária, principalmente em questões relativas ao Mar do Sul da China (MSC). Assim,
os chineses promovem uma lógica de desenvolvimento pacífico em sua política externa
regional. Uma vez que é necessário manter um ambiente externo pacífico e estável para
o desenvolvimento de relações econômicas e para a perseguição de seus interesses
nacionais, os quais são dependentes da manutenção do crescimento econômico. Logo,
pode-se dizer que os chineses utilizariam de instrumentos econômicos buscando atingir
fins políticos.
Considerável parte do Sudeste Asiático mostra-se carente de infraestruturas de
transportes, afetando suas performances logísticas. Nesse âmbito, a IFR possui grande
relevância, afinal a construção de infraestruturas conectivas podem contribuir para a
melhora logística destes Estados. Potencialmente promovendo efeitos econômicos
positivos, como demostrado no caso do Camboja. Fortalecendo, assim, as conexões entre
JANUS.NET, e-journal of International Relations
e-ISSN: 1647-7251
VOL. 16, Nº. 2
Novembro 2025-abril 2026, pp. 96-117
O Impacto da Iniciativa Faixa e Rota No Desenvolvimento do Sudeste Asiático com destaque
ao Camboja – A Continuação de um “Desenvolvimento Dependente”?
Paulo Victor Basílio Jeronymo
114
os países do Sudeste Asiático e interligando-os ainda mais à China numa ordem
econômica regional, na qual os chineses encontram-se em uma posição central. Assim,
aumentando exposição comercial destes Estados à China pelo aumento da participação
comercial e participação no valor agregado estrangeiro. Desse modo, ampliando a
dependência econômica e, por consequência, política dos países do Sudeste Asiático à
China.
Isto é, o desenvolvimento promovido pela IFR nos Estados do Sudeste Asiático se dá de
tal maneira a auxiliar o fortalecimento de uma ordem econômica regional com a China
em posição de destaque. Assim, ao que tudo indica os chineses usufruem das economias
subdesenvolvidas regionais que dependem de investimento direto estrangeiro, das
relações com as elites nacionais, das cadeias produtivas e de comércio regionais e
globais, que já haviam sido estabelecidas antes da IFR, e das relações econômicas
transfronteiriças que se fortaleceram com a globalização e a adoção do modelo neoliberal.
Posto tudo isto, caso a IFR fosse utilizada como um instrumento de statecraft econômico
negativo, trazendo assim consequências negativas as economias do Sudeste Asiático,
seria contraproducente com os interesses nacionais chineses. Desincentivando os
Estados da região a participarem da iniciativa, evitando a construção de infraestruturas
com influência chinesa. Dessa forma, indo diretamente contra a melhora de insuficiências
internas da China e contra a formação de uma ordem regional. Assim, indo contra a
presença chinesa no MSC, a crescente influência política da China para com as elites dos
Estados em contacto com esse mar é importante para a gestão de conflitos e disputas
nessa região. Nesse contexto, a China não precisa ter grande influência econômica e
política sobre todos os Estados do Sudeste Asiático, visto que o consenso da ASEAN sobre
o MSC pode ser rompido por alguns membros, como o Camboja, dificultando respostas
conjuntas.
Logo, o crescimento econômico destes países parece fazer parte dos objetivos chineses
no contexto da IFR, afinal este crescimento será em parte resultado da construção de
infraestruturas conectivas. Mas, como foi descrito, é possível que a atual divisão do
trabalho global se perpetue, dessa forma mantendo os Estados do Sudeste Asiático como
economias orientadas para a exportação de manufaturas e um armazém de produção de
baixo valor agregado. Contribui para isto, a necessidade da intervenção do Estado para
que haja progresso tecnológico e desenvolvimento industrial. Porém, isso não parece ser
de interesse das elites nacionais do Sudeste Asiático, as quais a governança inadequada
aumenta os efeitos negativos da gestão do investimento estrangeiro.
Ademais, a grande dependência de capital estrangeiro favorece um relacionamento
desigual, passível à influência econômica e política do país investidor. Logo, pode-se dizer
que há a possibilidade da continuação de um modelo de “desenvolvimento dependente”
nos Estados do Sudeste Asiático, principalmente aqueles que apresentam características
semelhantes ao Camboja. Que passariam a tornar-se dependentes da economia chinesa,
e não tanto das potências ocidentais. Favorecendo, assim, os objetivos nacionais
chineses na região do Sudeste Asiático, que são colocados a longo prazo.
JANUS.NET, e-journal of International Relations
e-ISSN: 1647-7251
VOL. 16, Nº. 2
Novembro 2025-abril 2026, pp. 96-117
O Impacto da Iniciativa Faixa e Rota No Desenvolvimento do Sudeste Asiático com destaque
ao Camboja – A Continuação de um “Desenvolvimento Dependente”?
Paulo Victor Basílio Jeronymo
115
Referências
American Enterprise Institute (2025). China Global Investment Tracker. [Consultado em
22 de Agosto]. Disponível em https://www.aei.org/china-global-investment-tracker
Al-Fadhat, F. (2020). The Internationalisation of Capital and the Transformation of
Statehood in Southeast Asia. In T. Carroll, S. Hameiri & L. Jones (eds.), The Political
Economy of Southeast Asia. Studies in the Political Economy of Public Policy. Cham:
Palgrave Macmillan, pp. 177-198. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-28255-4_7
ASEAN Secretariat (2024). FDI trends and developments in ASEAN. In ASEAN Investment
Report 2024 - ASEAN Economic Community 2025 and Foreign Direct Investment.
Jakarta: ASEAN Secretariat, pp. 3-11 https://unctad.org/publication/asean-investment-
report-2024
Cai, K. G. (2018). The One Belt One Road and the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank:
Beijing’s New Strategy of Geoeconomics and Geopolitics. Journal of Contemporary China.
27(114): pp. 831-847. https://doi.org/10.1080/10670564.2018.1488101
Cardoso, D. A. O. (2008). Ascensão Chinesa e as Ilhas Spratly: Uma Viragem
Geoestratégica para o Mar? Os Fundamentos da Geoestratégia da China para o Século
XXI. Estratégia. 17: pp. 73-164.
Carroll, T. (2020). The Political Economy of Southeast Asia’s Development from
Independence to Hyperglobalisation. In T. Carroll, S. Hameiri & L. Jones (eds.), The
Political Economy of Southeast Asia. Studies in the Political Economy of Public Policy.
Cham: Palgrave Macmillan, pp. 35-84. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-28255-4_2
Cheong, D. (2022, Setembro). Chinese ‘Debt Traps’ in Southeast Asia: What the Data
Say. ISEAS Perspective, 2022(88). Singapore: ISEAS Publishing, pp. 1-13.
https://www.iseas.edu.sg/articles-commentaries/iseas-perspective/2022-88-chinese-
debt-traps-in-southeast-asia-what-the-data-say-by-darren-cheong/
Fundo Monetário Internacional (2025a). GDP, current prices: Billions of U.S. dollars.
[Consultado em 20 de agosto de 2025]. Disponível em
https://www.imf.org/external/datamapper/NGDPD@WEO/OEMDC/ADVEC/WEOWORLD
Fundo Monetário Internacional (2025b). Cambodia: 2024 Article IV Consultation-Press
Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Cambodia". IMF Staff
Country Reports, 2025(022). https://doi.org/10.5089/9798400299711.002
Fundo Monetário Internacional (2025c). Cambodia Datasets. [Consultado em 20 de
agosto de 2025]. Disponível em https://www.imf.org/external/datamapper/profile/KHM
Gomez, T., Masina, P., & Vignato, S. (2020). Development and Transformation in
Southeast Asia: The Political Economy of Equitable Growth. State of the Art & Theoretical
Framework, Working Paper 2 “The Economy”. Crisea: pp. 1-25.
https://shs.hal.science/halshs-03151964/document
Hughes, C. (2020). Transitions from State “Socialism” in Southeast Asia. In T. Carroll, S.
Hameiri & L. Jones (eds.), The Political Economy of Southeast Asia. Studies in the Political
Economy of Public Policy. Cham: Palgrave Macmillan, pp. 111-132.
https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-28255-4_2
JANUS.NET, e-journal of International Relations
e-ISSN: 1647-7251
VOL. 16, Nº. 2
Novembro 2025-abril 2026, pp. 96-117
O Impacto da Iniciativa Faixa e Rota No Desenvolvimento do Sudeste Asiático com destaque
ao Camboja – A Continuação de um “Desenvolvimento Dependente”?
Paulo Victor Basílio Jeronymo
116
Hsueh, C. W. A. (2023). How Does BRI Affect the Degree of Globalization in Southeast
Asia? In Duarte, P. A. B., Leandro, F. J. B. S., Galán, E.M. (eds.), The Palgrave Handbook
of Globalization with Chinese Characteristics. Palgrave Macmillan: Singapore, pp. 1018-
1029. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-19-6700-9_40
Jones, L., & Hameiri, S. (2020). Southeast Asian Regional Governance: Political
Economy, Regulatory Regionalism and ASEAN Integration. In T. Carroll, S. Hameiri & L.
Jones (eds.), The Political Economy of Southeast Asia. Studies in the Political Economy
of Public Policy. Cham: Palgrave Macmillan, pp. 199-224. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-
3-030-28255-4_8
King, C., & Du, J. (2018). Could ‘Belt and Road’ be the Last Step in China’s Asian
Economic Integration? Journal of Contemporary China. 27(114): pp. 811-830.
https://doi.org/10.1080/10670564.2018.1488100
Masina, P. P. (2018). An Uneven Development Trap in Southeast Asia and Its Implications
for Labor. In Y. Goudineau, A. Hardy, & C. Vaddhanaphuti (eds.), Searching for Work:
Small-Scale Mobility and Unskilled Labor in Southeast Asia. Silkworm Books: pp. 251-
282
Nord, M., Altman, D., Angiolillo, F., Fernandes, T., God, A. G., & Lindberg, S. I. (2024).
Data Figures and Tables. In S. I. Linberberg (ed.), Democracy Report 2025: 25 Years of
Autocratization – Democracy Trumped?. University of Gothenburg: V-Dem Institute, p.
14.
Observatory of Economic Complexity (2025). Profile: Internacional Organization –
ASEAN. [Consultado em 20 de Agosto]. Disponível em
https://oec.world/en/profile/international_organization/asean#bespoke-title-147
Pani, G. M. & Tobing, F. B. L. (2025). Money or Sovereignty: The Impact of Chinese
Foreign Direct Investment on Cambodia. Jurnal Asia Pacific Studies. 8(2): pp. 34–53.
https://doi.org/10.33541/japs.v8i2.6213
Pitakdumrongkit, K. (2023). Managing economic statecraft via multilateral agreements:
the roles of ASEAN member states in shaping Regional Comprehensive Economic
Partnership. The Pacific Review. 36(5): pp. 1120–1147.
https://doi.org/10.1080/09512748.2023.2200022
Raghavan, M., Khan, F., & Devadason, E. S. (2021). Interdependent Trade Relationship.
In China and ASEAN: Pivoting Trade and Shock Transmission. Singapore Springer Nature,
pp. 9-22. https://link.springer.com/book/10.1007/978-981-16-1618-1
Rojanaleekul, V., Pungchompoo, S., & Sirivongpaisal, N. (2022). Trade values predictive
model of Southeast Asia under the Belt-Road Initiative. The Asian Journal of Shipping
and Logistics. 38(3): pp. 162-172.
Rosser, A. (2020). The Changing Aid Landscape and the Political Economy of
Development in Southeast Asia. In T. Carroll, S. Hameiri & L. Jones (eds.), The Political
Economy of Southeast Asia. Studies in the Political Economy of Public Policy. Cham:
Palgrave Macmillan, pp. 293-314. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-28255-4_2
JANUS.NET, e-journal of International Relations
e-ISSN: 1647-7251
VOL. 16, Nº. 2
Novembro 2025-abril 2026, pp. 96-117
O Impacto da Iniciativa Faixa e Rota No Desenvolvimento do Sudeste Asiático com destaque
ao Camboja – A Continuação de um “Desenvolvimento Dependente”?
Paulo Victor Basílio Jeronymo
117
Taguchi, H., & Zhao, J. (2022). China's global value chain linkage and logistics
performances in emerging ASEAN economies. International Studies of Economics. 17(2):
pp. 126–155. https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/ise3.12
Tomé, L. (2021). Mares da China: Disputas e Dilemas em Face da Ressurgência Chinesa.
In H. V. Zambujo, J. M. S. Maia & L. C. Soares (coords.), Memórias 2020. pp. 155-180.
https://observare.autonoma.pt/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/2021-Disputas-Mares-da-
China-Sul-e-Oriental-em-face-Ressurgência-China-in-Academia-Marinha-Livro-
Memorias-2020-SET-2021.pdf
Tong, Y. S. (2021). China’s Outbound Investment in ASEAN Economies in Three Periods:
Changing Patterns and Trends. The Singapore Economic Review. 66(1): pp. 105-142.
https://doi.org/10.1142/S0217590819410066
Transparency Internacional (2025). Corruption Perceptions Index. [Consultado em 20 de
Agosto]. Disponível em https://www.transparency.org/en/cpi/2024
Wang, C., Lim, M. K., Zhang, X., Zhao, L., & Lee, P. T. W. (2020). Railway and road
infrastructure in the Belt and Road Initiative countries: Estimating the impact of transport
infrastructure on economic growth. Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice.
134: pp. 288-307. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tra.2020.02.009
Yu, H. (2024). Riding on the BRI Train: Issues Relating to China’s Strengthening Ties
with Cambodia. In Understanding China’s Belt and Road Initiative. Asia in Transition, 26.
Singapore: Springer Nature Singapore, pp. 103-117. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-
99-9633-9_6
OBSERVARE
Universidade Autónoma de Lisboa
e-ISSN: 1647-7251
VOL. 16, Nº. 2
November 2025-April 2026
118
RETHINKING CHINA’S GRAY-ZONE STRATEGIES: CASES FROM THE EAST
CHINA SEA, SOUTH CHINA SEA, AND TAIWAN STRAIT
HSIAO-CHUAN LIAO
mandyliao@ntu.edu.tw
She is Taiwanese scholar and Associate Professor in the Department of Political Science, National
Taiwan University, Taipei (Taiwan). She received her Ph.D. in Department of Political Science
from University of South Carolina, U.S.A. Her research interests include international conflict,
international relations theory, foreign policy and decision-making, Sino-US-Japan relations, and
Indo-Pacific security studies. Her research has appeared in the referred journals such as Asian
Politics and Policy, Issues & Studies, Taiwan Political Science Review, Taiwanese Journal of
Political Science, and Chinese Political Science Review. ORCID: 0000-0003-0041-9066.
Abstract
This paper investigates China’s gray-zone strategies in the South China Sea, East China Sea,
and Taiwan Strait, addressing how China’s use of non-military gray-zone strategies differs
across these three maritime regions and what implications these variations hold for regional
security. This study redefines gray-zone strategy as a country’s attempt to change or influence
another country’s sovereignty rights or policies through governmental or non-governmental
actions, which is different from military brinkmanship. It identifies five categories of non-
military gray-zone tactics: narrative warfare, psychological warfare, legal warfare, mixing of
civilian and military activities, and governmental jurisdiction warfare. Based on a comparative
case analysis of the three areas, the study finds two key characteristics. First, China adopts
military means for severe sovereignty violations while relying on non-military gray-zone
strategies for lesser infringements to avoid escalation. Second, the greater the perceived
impact on sovereignty, the more China employs riskier gray-zone tactics. In the South China
Sea, China employs all five tactics to expand economic sovereign rights and create an order
alternative to the U.S.-led liberal international order. In the East China Sea, it leverages
narrative and jurisdictional tactics to undermine Japan’s control while avoiding military
confrontation. In the Taiwan Strait, psychological warfare dominates as China seeks to
internalize the strait and domesticate Taiwan. Overall, the paper suggests collective,
asymmetric responses targeting China’s vulnerabilities to enhance deterrence and maintain
regional stability.
Keywords
Gray-zone strategy, China, South China Sea, East China Sea, China, Taiwan Strait.
Resumo
Este artigo estuda as estratégias de zona cinzenta da China no Mar da China Meridional, Mar
da China Oriental e Estreito de Taiwan, abordando como o uso de estratégias de zona cinzenta
não militares pela China difere nessas três regiões marítimas e quais as implicações dessas
variações para a segurança regional. Este estudo redefine a estratégia de zona cinzenta como
a tentativa de um país de alterar ou influenciar os direitos ou políticas de soberania de outro
país por meio de ações governamentais ou não governamentais, o que é diferente da política
de risco militar. Ele identifica cinco categorias de táticas não militares de zona cinzenta: guerra
JANUS.NET, e-journal of International Relations
e-ISSN: 1647-7251
VOL. 16, Nº. 2
November 2025-April 2026, pp. 118-136
Rethinking China’s Gray-Zone Strategies: Cases from the East China Sea, South China Sea,
and Taiwan Strait
Hsiao-Chuan Liao
119
narrativa, guerra psicológica, guerra jurídica, mistura de atividades civis e militares e guerra
de jurisdição governamental. Com base em uma análise comparativa de casos das três áreas,
o estudo identifica duas características principais. Primeiro, a China adota meios militares
para violações graves da soberania, enquanto confia em estratégias não militares da zona
cinzenta para infrações menores, a fim de evitar uma escalada. Segundo, quanto maior o
impacto percebido sobre a soberania, mais a China emprega táticas mais arriscadas da zona
cinzenta. No Mar da China Meridional, a China emprega todas as cinco táticas para expandir
os direitos de soberania económica e criar uma ordem alternativa à ordem internacional liberal
liderada pelos EUA. No Mar da China Oriental, ela usa táticas narrativas e jurisdicionais para
minar o controle do Japão, evitando o confronto militar. No Estreito de Taiwan, a guerra
psicológica domina, à medida que a China busca internalizar o estreito e domesticar Taiwan.
No geral, o artigo sugere respostas coletivas e assimétricas direcionadas às vulnerabilidades
da China para aumentar a dissuasão e manter a estabilidade regional.
Palavras-chave
Estratégia da zona cinzenta, China, Mar da China Meridional, Mar da China Oriental, China,
Estreito de Taiwan.
How to cite this article
Liao, Hsiao-Chuan (2025). Rethinking China’s Gray-Zone Strategies: Cases from the East China
Sea, South China Sea, and Taiwan Strait. Janus.net, e-journal of international relations. VOL. 16,
Nº. 2, November 2025-April 2026, pp. 118-136. DOI https://doi.org/10.26619/1647-7251.16.2.7
Article submitted on 10th July 2025 and accepted for publication on 26th September
2025.
JANUS.NET, e-journal of International Relations
e-ISSN: 1647-7251
VOL. 16, Nº. 2
November 2025-April 2026, pp. 118-136
Rethinking China’s Gray-Zone Strategies: Cases from the East China Sea, South China Sea,
and Taiwan Strait
Hsiao-Chuan Liao
120
RETHINKING CHINA’S GRAY-ZONE STRATEGIES: CASES FROM
THE EAST CHINA SEA, SOUTH CHINA SEA, AND TAIWAN STRAIT
HSIAO-CHUAN LIAO
Introduction: China’s Gray-zone Actions
On June 17, 2024, the China Coast Guard (CCG), supported by maritime militia and the
People’s Liberation Army Navy, surrounded, rammed, and boarded a Philippine Navy
inflatable boat while it was conducting a resupply mission to Second Thomas Shoal.
During the incident, CCG personnel used knives, bats, and axes to damage the Philippine
boat, resulting in one Philippine navy serviceman losing his right thumb (Asia Maritime
Transparency Initiative, 2024). Although the Philippine government quickly squelched
speculation that the event might invoke the 1951 Philippines–U.S. Mutual Defense Treaty
(Gomez, 2024), continued CCG aggression in the South China Sea makes it increasingly
likely that the treaty could be invoked in the near future. Philippine President Ferdinand
Marcos has stated that the treaty would “kick into action” if a “Filipino serviceman is killed
because of an attack or an aggressive action by another foreign power” (Gutierrez, 2024).
Similar incidents have occurred in the East China Sea, where the CCG frequently patrols
disputed areas claimed by Japan. The frequency of these patrols increased dramatically
after Japan nationalized the Diaoyu/Senkaku Islands in 2012, and hot pursuit events
involving the Japanese Coast Guard (JCG) have become almost routine. Beyond the
South China Sea and East China Sea, the CCG has also extended its so-called law
enforcement operations to the Taiwan Strait. On February 14, 2024, two Chinese
fishermen died while fleeing from Taiwan’s Coast Guard after being intercepted for illegal,
unreported, and unregulated (IUU) fishing in waters under Taiwan’s administration.
1
Subsequently, the CCG began patrolling prohibited and restricted waters around Taiwan’s
Kinmen Islands, claiming that these patrols constitute normal law enforcement.
These are aggressive actions by the CCG; however, China also engages in other tactics
such as deploying maritime militia to surround disputed islets and sever their connections
to other claimants, issuing fishing bans in disputed seas, and promoting historical rights
narratives in the South China Sea. Such actions are considered gray-zone strategies.
While they may not lead to war like direct military actions, they can incrementally change
the status quo. The U.S. Quadrennial Defense Review (QDR) in 2010 noted that many
changes fall within this ambiguous gray zone, including military mobilization, economic
warfare, and information warfare (Secretary of Defense, 2010). These gray-zone
1
At around 1 p.m. on February 14, 2024, a Chinese speedboat carrying four people crossed the maritime
boundary and intruded into the waters near Kinmen. When it refused inspection, Taiwan’s Coast Guard pursued
the vessel, during which the speedboat capsized, resulting in two fatalities and two survivors (Wu, 2025).
JANUS.NET, e-journal of International Relations
e-ISSN: 1647-7251
VOL. 16, Nº. 2
November 2025-April 2026, pp. 118-136
Rethinking China’s Gray-Zone Strategies: Cases from the East China Sea, South China Sea,
and Taiwan Strait
Hsiao-Chuan Liao
121
strategies have increasingly raised regional concerns. How can such actions be
distinguished conceptually? Are there differences in China’s gray-zone strategies across
the East China Sea, Taiwan Strait, and South China Sea? This paper first examines the
literature on gray-zone strategies, arguing that the concept requires greater specificity
to be meaningful. Furthermore, it contends that China is more likely to adopt gray-zone
strategies in areas with multiple disputing states to maximize their “avoidance of war”
effect. The comparison of the three seas supports this argument.
Gray-zone strategy: Origin and Literature
Gray-zone strategies are not a modern invention in the realm of national strategy. If one
adopts a broad definition of strategies that operate between war and peace, such
concepts can be traced back to ancient China. Sun Tzu, the renowned military strategist
from the Spring and Autumn period, articulated in The Art of War that the highest form
of strategy is to subdue the enemy without fighting, compelling surrender without
deploying troops or attacking the enemy directly. In modern history, the Cold War
exemplified gray-zone dynamics, as the United States and the Soviet Union avoided
direct warfare yet engaged in proxy wars, psychological operations, infiltration, and arms
races—tactics that fall within the broad spectrum of gray-zone strategies. The term
“gray-zone” first appeared in an official U.S. government document in the 2010
Quadrennial Defense Review, which noted that future challenges would increasingly
emerge in ambiguous areas between war and peace. The report suggested that
strengthening allies to respond to such challenges would reduce risks to U.S. forces and
extend security to areas where unilateral action was impractical (Secretary of Defense,
2010).
In East Asia, Japan experienced a gray-zone crisis in September 2010 with the “Minjin
Fishing Vessel 5179 Incident,” when a Chinese trawler collided with a Japanese Coast
Guard vessel near the Diaoyu/Senkaku Islands (Bau, Tso, & Liao, 2014). The Japanese
government is aware that civilian or paramilitary forces are being used to change the
status quo while compelling the targeted country to take the initiative in settling the
situation through some form of force. These incursions blur the line between crime and
defense, as well as between law enforcement and military activities (Pajon, 2017).
Japan’s 2010 National Defense Program Guidelines subsequently identified China’s
growing maritime activities—including coast guard and fishing vessel incursions—as
gray-zone challenges involving sovereignty disputes short of outright conflict. Tensions
escalated after Japan nationalized the Diaoyu/Senkaku Islands in 2012, with frequent
incursions by Chinese military aircraft and CCG ships attempting to establish a “new
normal.” Scholars have examined China’s systematic use of such tactics. Holmes and
Yoshihara (2012) argue that drawing from Mahan’s sea power theory, China employs
gray-zone strategies to expand maritime influence, as seen in the 2012 Scarborough
Shoal standoff, where China used non-combat maritime militia vessels to occupy the
shoal without conventional military force—an approach they term “small-stick
diplomacy.” Denny Roy (2015) similarly notes that China’s tactics in the East and South
China Seas are aggressive yet calibrated to avoid provoking direct military retaliation.
Zhang (2019, pp. 119–120) describes China as a “cautious bully,” noting that it uses
JANUS.NET, e-journal of International Relations
e-ISSN: 1647-7251
VOL. 16, Nº. 2
November 2025-April 2026, pp. 118-136
Rethinking China’s Gray-Zone Strategies: Cases from the East China Sea, South China Sea,
and Taiwan Strait
Hsiao-Chuan Liao
122
military coercion less frequently as it becomes stronger. This suggests that focusing
solely on the growth of China’s material capabilities cannot fully explain its behavior.
Mazarr (2015) provides a comprehensive analysis, asserting that China’s gray-zone
strategies aim to establish a China-led order in the South China Sea. He categorizes gray-
zone tactics into six types by intensity: narrative warfare, denial of prosperity, civilian
intervention, active infiltration, coercive signaling, and proxy sabotage. For instance,
China uses narrative warfare to assert historical claims and economic measures to coerce
rivals, while deploying civilian organizations to consolidate control, as in Scarborough
Shoal. Mazarr warns that while these tactics may avoid immediate conflict, they risk
increasing international tensions and escalating into war. McLaughlin (2022) argues that
gray-zone operations are designed to “exploit or create legal uncertainties for a military
or strategic advantage.”
Beyond China, states like Russia also employ gray-zone strategies, such as annexing
Crimea by infiltrating masked troops, installing a proxy government, and legitimizing
annexation through a referendum. Chen Yong (2019) defines gray-zone strategies as
competitions between states or between state and non-state actors within the spectrum
between war and peace, highlighting their ambiguity and risk. Barno and Bensahel (2015)
caution that such strategies, though non-traditional, can threaten core U.S. interests.
Brands (2016) similarly describes them as coercive and aggressive tactics disguised as
non-military conflict to alter the status quo, terming them “gray-zone conflicts.”
Finally, Cheng and Hung (2019) argue that the challenges posed by gray-zone strategies
stem not from the tactics themselves but from the power of the actors employing them.
They contend that these strategies are ultimately peaceful forms of conflict resolution,
echoing Sun Tzu’s notion of winning without fighting. The case study of the Philippines
also demonstrates that China’s gray-zone strategies are intended to induce a sense of
helplessness in other countries, causing them to either acquiesce or become numb to
China’s actions. Although the Duterte administration initially acquiesced, it later shifted
its policy and responded to China’s actions with greater resolve (de Castro & Chambers,
2022). Nonetheless, American scholars largely view these strategies as expressions of
non-military coercion intended to change the international order. For example, a
publication by the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) notes that the
U.S. Department of Defense has employed Freedom of Navigation Operations (FONOPs)
to deter China’s gray-zone activities threatening sea lanes in the Indo-Pacific region, and
has also partnered with the Philippines to publicly expose China’s actions in the area as
a way of countering its gray-zone strategies (Sheppard et al., 2019, pp. 27, 62).
Adjust Gray-zone Strategy
Revise definition
The literature on gray-zone strategies reveals that the most common definition refers to
strategies that lie between war and diplomacy. These encompass military, economic,
social, and political actions characterized by aggression aimed at expanding one’s power
to gradually change the status quo. Zheng and Hong (2019) summarize four
characteristics of gray-zone strategies: revisionism, asymmetry, ambiguity, and
JANUS.NET, e-journal of International Relations
e-ISSN: 1647-7251
VOL. 16, Nº. 2
November 2025-April 2026, pp. 118-136
Rethinking China’s Gray-Zone Strategies: Cases from the East China Sea, South China Sea,
and Taiwan Strait
Hsiao-Chuan Liao
123
gradualism. In terms of objectives, gray-zone strategies seek to incrementally alter the
status quo by leveraging asymmetries in capabilities and costs between themselves and
their adversaries. This approach operates below the threshold of war, avoiding direct
military retaliation and introducing ambiguity regarding whether a given action
constitutes preparation for war and how it should be countered. Ultimately, gray-zone
strategies yield gradual effects akin to “salami slicing,” making it difficult for neighboring
countries to respond effectively. However, Dai Zheng and Hong You-sheng’s compilation
of definitions and tactics indicates that the broad conception encompasses a wide array
of actions, such that any move hindering another country’s interests without declaring
war may be labeled a gray-zone strategy. This broad definition dilutes the perceived
security threat and opportunities for counteraction.
2
Therefore, it is necessary to distinguish between military and non-military tactics. Mixing
military tactics with non-military ones under the same label risks diminishing the severity
of military tactics and the significance of non-military ones. Military tactics should not be
considered gray-zone strategies. While the term “gray-zone” originally aimed to capture
strategies that breach peace without provoking war, military tactics are preparations for
war and are likely to trigger escalation. Thus, they should be treated as strategies with
the potential for war, rather than as gray-zone strategies.
Specifically, Russian General Valery Gerasimov’s (2013) concept of “hybrid warfare”
asserts that modern warfare increasingly employs unconventional and non-traditional
forces, including private military companies and hybrid tactics, as a new norm of warfare.
These are methods designed for war and carry a high potential to escalate into conflict.
This is also why Patalano (2018) argues that the concept of gray-zone strategy adds little
nuance to the existing literature on state warfare and strategy. That is, this kind of tactics
are considered as methods for war and are possible to lead to war. Cooper and Shearer
(2017) also argues that China’s adoption of gray-zone approaches differs from Russia’s
hybrid warfare, as China focuses on accumulating influence through economic means and
non-military tactics while deliberately avoiding direct combat.
This distinction also clarifies the difference between brinkmanship and gray-zone
strategies. Brinkmanship involves using military tactics to demonstrate a willingness to
go to war, aiming to persuade the target state that confrontation is approaching the
threshold of armed conflict. In contrast, a state adopting gray-zone strategies signals
that it does not seek war, instead employing limited non-military measures to change
the situation incrementally without provoking strong objections. In summary, both
strategies aim to avoid war, but brinkmanship involves military tactics and bluffing
readiness for war, while gray-zone strategies reveal a lack of willingness to fight and
prioritize non-military tactics.
Including military tactics under the umbrella of gray-zone strategies also diminishes the
significance of non-military tactics. States may downplay an adversary’s gray-zone
moves, perceiving them as insufficient to warrant military concern, thereby enabling
incremental salami-slicing changes to the status quo. Distinguishing military from non-
military tactics helps spotlight gray-zone moves so that states can respond proactively.
2
This section incorporates content from Liao (2022).
JANUS.NET, e-journal of International Relations
e-ISSN: 1647-7251
VOL. 16, Nº. 2
November 2025-April 2026, pp. 118-136
Rethinking China’s Gray-Zone Strategies: Cases from the East China Sea, South China Sea,
and Taiwan Strait
Hsiao-Chuan Liao
124
A precise definition of gray-zone strategies’ objectives, timing, and tactics is necessary.
This paper defines gray-zone strategies as a country’s attempt to change or influence
another country’s sovereignty rights or policies through governmental or non-
governmental actions, thereby redefining mutual strategic interests. The ultimate goal
remains the preservation of national security and sovereignty within the traditional
security domain, even if non-state actors are involved. These actions are driven by
national motives aimed at securing state interests rather than private interests. While
the executors of operations may include state or non-state actors, planning and
command must originate from the state. Thus, non-state actors’ independent actions
that accidentally violate another state’s sovereignty should not be considered gray-zone
strategies.
Gray-zone Tactics
As for tactics, this paper argues that only non-military tactics constitute gray-zone
strategies. Specifically, gray-zone tactics include narrative warfare, legal warfare,
governmental jurisdiction warfare, psychological warfare, and mixing of civilian and
military activities.
Narrative warfare refers to the contest for discursive authority, exemplified by China’s
invocation of historical rights to justify its maritime claims and territorial demarcation in
the South China Sea. Legal warfare manifests in two forms: first, the use of domestic
legislation to regulate the behavior of foreign actors; second, efforts to seize interpretive
authority over international laws and customary norms. For instance, China has
increasingly invoked its reading of UNGA Resolution 2758 to legitimize its One-China
Principle and delegitimize Taiwan’s status as a separate political entity in the international
system. The third category, governmental jurisdiction warfare, is exemplified by the
China Coast Guard’s (CCG) law enforcement activities in disputed waters and the
imposition of summer fishing bans in the South China Sea, both unilaterally asserting
jurisdiction over foreign actors in contested areas. This category also encompasses denial
of prosperity tactics, such as economic sanctions or trade quarantines to coerce a target
state.
Psychological warfare includes espionage, active infiltration, proxy sabotage, and
propaganda. Although these tactics have long existed in traditional diplomatic practices,
they become gray-zone strategies when directed aggressively toward a specific
adversary. For example, Russia’s annexation of Crimea was preceded by an integrated
campaign of psychological warfare: masked troops seized key strategic locations, a pro-
Russian local government was installed through proxies, and a referendum was held to
legitimize annexation. Lastly, mixing civilian and military activities involves utilizing
civilian forces to hinder foreign operations or conceal military objectives. The facilities
constructed by China in the South China Sea exhibit dual-use characteristics, extending
its military projection capabilities. Through deploying maritime militia forces to encircle
Scarborough Shoal, China ultimately established effective control over the disputed area.
This definition and typology align with Sun Tzu’s classification of national strategy. In The
Art of War, Sun Tzu wrote: “The best warfare is to win by strategy, followed by diplomacy,
then military action, and lastly, besieging cities.” Ideally, a country influences or changes
JANUS.NET, e-journal of International Relations
e-ISSN: 1647-7251
VOL. 16, Nº. 2
November 2025-April 2026, pp. 118-136
Rethinking China’s Gray-Zone Strategies: Cases from the East China Sea, South China Sea,
and Taiwan Strait
Hsiao-Chuan Liao
125
another state’s sovereignty rights or policies through cunning strategies, achieving
objectives without deploying troops. The second approach involves diplomatic measures
to disrupt alliances, the third entails military engagement, and the least desirable is direct
territorial occupation. Thus, gray-zone strategies correspond to the first type: “winning
through strategy,” where the adversary perceives confrontation as too risky and success
as unlikely, leading to the abandonment of resistance.
Based on this definition, gray-zone strategies are crucial for safeguarding national
sovereignty. Understanding how a country can employ gray-zone strategies to protect
its own interests and how it can respond to others’ gray-zone strategies is essential for
maintaining the status quo. When a state employs gray-zone strategies, its goal is to
signal that confrontation carries significant risks, compelling the opponent to adjust
policies accordingly. Effective responses should therefore focus on addressing the
underlying objectives of such strategies rather than merely reacting to their methods, in
order to mitigate risks and counter their impacts effectively.
Theorizing China’s Gray-zone Strategy
China has actively employed gray-zone strategies in the Indo-Pacific region in recent
years. However, the frequency and types of these strategies vary. The following sections
examine the three maritime areas in the Indo-Pacific where China employs gray-zone
strategies for different purposes, thereby shaping regional dynamics and destabilizing
the status quo.
South China Sea: Struggle between Two Orders
Since the end of World War II, the U.S.-led order of free and open international seas has
become the global mainstream. Although the United States has not ratified the 1982
United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS), its norms—such as the
delineation of the high seas—continue to guide state conduct in maritime domains. In
the South China Sea, China, Vietnam, Malaysia, Brunei, the Philippines, and Taiwan
assert overlapping maritime claims. China claims maritime rights within the so-called
ten-dash line, effectively encompassing almost the entire South China Sea. Taiwan claims
that Taiping Island (Itu Aba) qualifies as an island entitled to a 200-nautical-mile
Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ), overlapping with claims by Vietnam, Malaysia, the
Philippines, and Brunei.
China’s gray-zone strategies in this area are highly diversified, encompassing narrative
warfare, legal warfare, governmental jurisdiction warfare, psychological warfare, and the
mixing of civilian and military activities. Narrative warfare involves reinforcing the
legitimacy of historic rights within the ten-dash line through ancient maps and academic
research (McLaughlin, 2022). Legal warfare includes reinterpreting international and
customary law, such as asserting maritime delimitation rights through land reclamation
and artificial island construction. China has also enacted domestic laws with
extraterritorial implications—such as the Coast Guard Law, amended Maritime Traffic
Safety Law, and the Outline of Military Non-War Military Operations—to expand the scope
and scale of its forces’ overseas activities. Following the promulgation of its Coast Guard
JANUS.NET, e-journal of International Relations
e-ISSN: 1647-7251
VOL. 16, Nº. 2
November 2025-April 2026, pp. 118-136
Rethinking China’s Gray-Zone Strategies: Cases from the East China Sea, South China Sea,
and Taiwan Strait
Hsiao-Chuan Liao
126
Law in 2021, which explicitly listed “safeguarding national sovereignty” as a purpose and
authorized the use of weapons against foreign infringements, China further expanded its
legal basis for enforcement. The law also grants the Coast Guard authority to expel or
tow away foreign military or government vessels. In May 2024, the CCG issued
Administrative Order No. 3, regulating enforcement procedures, thereby extending
domestic legislation into the international domain.
Specifically, China’s Coast Guard Law and Administrative Order No. 3 authorize coast
guard patrols and boarding inspections to coerce other states, preventing them from
exercising their sovereign rights and enabling China to conduct governmental jurisdiction
warfare. This has resulted in numerous collisions between CCG vessels and fishing boats
from other countries, such as Vietnam. The CCG also frequently patrols near the natural
gas fields located within disputed EEZs of countries such as Malaysia, Vietnam, and
Indonesia. In particular, confrontations with Vietnam are common in the vicinity of the
Vanguard Bank oil field (Sebastian, 2021). Psychological warfare includes covert
command and funding activities to infiltrate foreign government agencies and sponsoring
large networks of online trolls (“Little Pinks”) and hackers targeting government and
private institutions. For example, on July 29, 2016, Chinese hackers infiltrated Vietnam’s
major international airports and broadcast messages declaring “the South China Sea
belongs to China” (Hsu, 2016).
Finally, mixing civilian and military activities involves deploying large numbers of fishing
vessels acting as maritime militia. Equipped with advanced satellite communications and
water cannons, they surround disputed territories to demonstrate China’s sovereignty.
Such an action represents a gray-zone strategy that most closely resembles military
operations.
3
This tactic dates back to 1973 during the Paracel Islands dispute, when
China dispatched armed “fishermen” (maritime militia) to land on the islands, eventually
prompting naval clashes with South Vietnam (Xinhua News, 2017). This tactic has since
evolved into what O’Rourke (2019) terms the “Cabbage Strategy,” which involves
encircling disputed areas with layers of fishing vessels, coast guard ships, and naval
warships to assert sovereignty claims and enable occupation without direct conflict.
The most successful example is Scarborough Shoal, where China established de facto
control by deploying fishing vessels, then fisheries patrol ships under the pretext of
protecting fishermen, ultimately blocking Philippine control (Bau, Tso, & Liao, 2014).
China used similar tactics against Philippine resupply missions to the BRP Sierra Madre
grounded at Second Thomas Shoal (Ren’ai Jiao). China initially deployed maritime militia
vessels to surround the area, making it difficult for the Philippines to conduct resupply
operations. This was followed by Chinese coast guard ships coercing Philippine
government vessels to alter their course, with the apparent aim of forcing the Filipino
troops stationed on the Sierra Madre to abandon the ship. In 2024, the CCG announced
that it would impose control measures on Philippine vessels it deemed to have “illegally
intruded” into the waters surrounding Second Thomas Shoal. The Philippine Coast Guard
subsequently accused the CCG of damaging its supply vessels. On June 17, armed CCG
personnel boarded a Philippine Navy resupply boat and injured Filipino naval personnel.
Tensions between the two sides escalated until July 2, when Chinese and Philippine
3
Therefore, in 2019, the United States declared that it would regard maritime militia, coast guard, and navy
forces as equivalent in its operational considerations (Sevastopulo and Hille, 2019).“
JANUS.NET, e-journal of International Relations
e-ISSN: 1647-7251
VOL. 16, Nº. 2
November 2025-April 2026, pp. 118-136
Rethinking China’s Gray-Zone Strategies: Cases from the East China Sea, South China Sea,
and Taiwan Strait
Hsiao-Chuan Liao
127
foreign ministers convened the 9
th
meeting of the Bilateral Consultation Mechanism on
the South China Sea (BCM), bringing about a temporary halt to the confrontation.
Overall, China’s main objective in the South China Sea is to expand its sovereign rights
and influence rather than physically occupy other claimants’ territories. Although the
claimant states in the South China Sea are individually weaker than China, their large
number means that any rash use of military force by China could potentially trigger the
formation of an anti-China coalition. The use of gray-zone strategies has thus become
China’s preferred approach in this region (Zhang, 2019). These tactics provoke less initial
controversy and enable China to justify its actions incrementally, altering the status quo
and international norms through a salami-slicing approach. Unlike the U.S., which
upholds international law and a rules-based order as the foundation of South China Sea
governance, China seeks to construct an order based on sovereignty principles and
negotiations, thereby reshaping existing power dynamics. The contest for regional order
between China and the United States thus continues.
East China Sea: New Normal
Relative to the South China Sea, the East China Sea has delimitation disputes involving
only China, South Korea, Japan, and Taiwan (Park, 1975, 27). In 1974, Japan and South
Korea signed two agreements concerning the continental shelf in areas where their
maritime claims overlapped (Makoto and Becker-Weinberg, 2024). In 2001, China and
South Korea signed the China–South Korea Fisheries Agreement, which established
provisional measure zones in the Yellow Sea to be jointly managed by both parties.
Although China and Japan reached the 2008 “Consensus on principles of the China-Japan
East China Sea issue,” which set out a cooperative framework for delimiting their
Exclusive Economic Zones and for oil and gas development, the agreement lacked
implementing details and thus has remained largely ineffective.
China’s gray zone tactics in the East China Sea similarly involves allowing large numbers
of Chinese fishing vessels to operate there, thereby expanding the scope of China’s
claimed fishing grounds, even at the risk of colliding with JCG vessels. For example, in
the 2010 Minjinyu 5179 incident, the Chinese trawler Minjinyu 5179 collided with
Japanese patrol ships and was subsequently detained by Japan. The incident ultimately
ended with Japan expressing regret, which was regarded as a victory for China’s claim
of legitimate fishing rights (Bau, Tso and Liao, 2014). However, unlike its gray-zone
tactics in the South China Sea, China has not employed large numbers of maritime militia
vessels to encircle the Diaoyu/Senkaku Islands or to obstruct Japan’s exercise of
administrative jurisdiction over them. Instead, it has relied on governmental jurisdiction
warfare. In addition, China has justified its sovereignty safeguarding actions in the East
China Sea by asserting sovereignty over the Diaoyu/Senkaku Islands and by invoking
arguments such as the natural prolongation principle in its continental shelf delimitation
claims.
Another gray-zone tactic that China employs in the East China Sea is governmental
jurisdiction warfare, which is supported by legal warfare with extraterritorial effects
through domestic legislation, such as the aforementioned Coast Guard Law and
Administrative Order No. 3. Since Japan nationalized the Diaoyu/Senkaku Islands in
JANUS.NET, e-journal of International Relations
e-ISSN: 1647-7251
VOL. 16, Nº. 2
November 2025-April 2026, pp. 118-136
Rethinking China’s Gray-Zone Strategies: Cases from the East China Sea, South China Sea,
and Taiwan Strait
Hsiao-Chuan Liao
128
2012, CCG vessels have increased the frequency of their patrols in the East China Sea,
even entering the territorial waters surrounding the Diaoyu/Senkaku Islands, as shown
in Figure 1 (Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Japan, 2025).
Figure 1. Trends in CCG and Other Vessels in the Waters Surrounding the Diaoyu/Senkaku
Islands
Source: Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Japan. 2025,
https://www.mofa.go.jp/region/page23e_000021.html
Despite Japan’s protests and JCG efforts to drive them away, Chinese incursions have
increased in both number and duration (Pajon, 2017).. Since November 2023, CCG has
published statements on its official website, including titles such as “The China Coast
Guard has lawfully managed and controlled Japanese vessels illegally entering the
territorial waters of our Diaoyu/Senkaku Islands,” asserting that its actions constitute
legitimate law enforcement against Japanese vessels. These statements declare, “The
Diaoyu/Senkaku Islands and their affiliated islands are China’s inherent territory…We
urge Japan to immediately stop all illegal activities in these waters (China Coast Guard,
2023)” reiterating China’s claim of sovereignty over the Diaoyu/Senkaku Islands and
demanding that Japan cease entering what it considers its territorial waters. In June
2024, four armed Chinese Coast Guard vessels entered the islands’ territorial waters,
prompting Tokyo to lodge a strong protest demanding their immediate withdrawal
(Reuters, 2024). Later, the massive CCG 2901 vessel, one of the world’s largest maritime
law enforcement ships, sailed around the Diaoyu/Senkaku Islands (Yomiuri Shimbun,
2024). In March 2025, the JCG reported that CCG vessels remained in the islands’
territorial waters for a record 92 hours and 8 minutes (Kosuke, 2025). China’s maritime
law enforcement operations near the Diaoyu/Senkaku Islands have grown progressively
more assertive.
In 2025, China erected a sea structure in the Yellow Sea within an area of overlapping
claims with South Korea, off the Korean Peninsula’s west coast. Although China claimed
it was fish-farming equipment, it prompted concern from South Korea (Yim, 2025). China
JANUS.NET, e-journal of International Relations
e-ISSN: 1647-7251
VOL. 16, Nº. 2
November 2025-April 2026, pp. 118-136
Rethinking China’s Gray-Zone Strategies: Cases from the East China Sea, South China Sea,
and Taiwan Strait
Hsiao-Chuan Liao
129
has employed similar tactics in the East China Sea, prompting Japanese demands for
explanation. Although China claims such structures are unrelated to sovereignty, they
are viewed as potential gray-zone strategy tools, given their possible future use for radar
systems or interference with foreign vessels’ navigation.
China has employed gray-zone tactics in the East China Sea, including narrative warfare,
legal warfare, and contests over governmental jurisdiction, to gradually undermine
Japan’s previously unchallenged dominance and to create the perception of joint
administration with Japan. This strategy has eroded Japan’s exclusive administrative
control, establishing what has been termed a “new normal,” although in practice Japan
retains effective control over the Diaoyu/Senkaku Islands.
4
Overall, the so-called “new
normal” in the East China Sea does not represent a stable state but rather a dynamic
process in which China continues to strengthen its presence. Even the previously calm
Yellow Sea has begun to experience ripples as a result. Indeed, China’s gray-zone
strategies are being used to gradually alter the status quo.
Taiwan Strait: Internalization
The Taiwan Strait issue is fundamentally different in nature from China’s disputes in the
East and South China Seas. Since the establishment of the People’s Republic of China
(PRC) on October 1, 1949, the PRC and the Republic of China (ROC) in Taiwan have
existed as two separate governing authorities. While China has exercised actual control
only over the mainland, it has never abandoned its intention to unify Taiwan. In other
words, China has consistently maintained that Taiwan is an integral part of its territory.
Beyond military exercises intended to intimidate Taiwan, China disseminates
disinformation and seeks domestic proxies within Taiwan to directly influence public
perceptions, thereby creating panic or achieving deterrent effects. For example, during
U.S. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan in 2022, numerous Taiwanese
government and private sector websites were attacked or rendered inoperable.
Additionally, screens at Taiwan Railways stations and convenience stores displayed
statements insulting Pelosi (Tsai, 2022). Admittedly, such tactics are unlikely to yield
immediate results during peacetime. However, once both sides enter a period of
heightened tension or confrontation, these strategies could achieve what Sun Tzu
described as defeating the enemy’s will to resist before actual combat begins. Moreover,
China may actively co-opt pro-China individuals in Taiwan to disseminate information
detrimental to the Taiwanese government, thereby undermining internal cohesion.
Secondly, China has employed narrative warfare to emphasize the inevitability of Cross-
Strait unification. It highlights the 1943 Cairo Declaration and the 1945 Potsdam
Declaration, both of which stipulated that Taiwan would be returned to China, arguing
4
According to interviews conducted by the author in June 2024 with scholars at the National Institute for
Defense Studies, Tokyo University and Keio University, the Japanese government has integrated the real-time
communication systems of the Japan Maritime Self-Defense Force (JMSDF) and the JCG, enabling the Coast
Guard to receive timely intelligence regarding Chinese vessels. However, they also noted that if CCG ships
refuse to leave, the JCG can do no more than monitor and shadow them, as taking further action could provoke
a dispute. The scholars pointed out two main reasons for this dilemma: first, Japan lacks a plan for 24-hour
continuous patrols; and second, the situation is still considered a law enforcement matter, thus not warranting
U.S. involvement.
JANUS.NET, e-journal of International Relations
e-ISSN: 1647-7251
VOL. 16, Nº. 2
November 2025-April 2026, pp. 118-136
Rethinking China’s Gray-Zone Strategies: Cases from the East China Sea, South China Sea,
and Taiwan Strait
Hsiao-Chuan Liao
130
that the PRC, as the successor state, inherits this sovereignty, rendering the Taiwan issue
an internal matter. However, internationally, countries such as the U.S., the United
Kingdom, and Japan maintain that the 1951 San Francisco Peace Treaty, which formally
ended World War II, did not explicitly state that Taiwan should be returned to China. In
recent years, China has further equated United Nations General Assembly Resolution
2758—which granted the PRC China’s seat at the UN—with its “One China Principle,”
underscoring its narrative that both sides of the Strait belong to one China. Moreover,
China asserts sovereignty over Taiwan and treats the One China Principle as a
precondition for diplomatic relations, requiring other countries to acknowledge that
“Taiwan is part of China.” Domestically, it has enacted the Anti-Secession Law, the
National Security Law, and the Counter-Espionage Law, defining support for Taiwan
independence as an act that endangers national security. Such measures imply an
expansion of extraterritorial jurisdiction, signaling not only legal warfare but also
potential enforcement actions constituting governmental jurisdiction warfare.
Following the “Kinmen 0214 Incident” in 2024, CCG vessels began driving away and
attempting to board Taiwanese fishing boats operating within restricted waters
designated by Taiwan. China also denied the existence of the long-standing tacit
understanding regarding the median line in the Taiwan Strait. CCG ships, military aircraft,
and naval vessels have repeatedly crossed this median line. Furthermore, in 2022 China
conducted encirclement exercises around Taiwan to warn against its decision to host U.S.
House Speaker Pelosi, with the designated exercise zones even including a small portion
of Japan’s claimed EEZ. In 2024, it carried out Joint Sword–2024A and 2024B exercises,
followed by multiple encirclement drills starting in April 2025. The areas designated for
these exercises have gradually moved closer to Taiwan’s declared territorial waters,
demonstrating China’s intent to assert its control and jurisdictional authority in the
surrounding areas.
Overall, the gray-zone tactics China employs in the Taiwan Strait are aimed at
internalizing the Strait as China’s inland waters and domesticating Taiwan such as
narratives warfare, legal warfare, and psychological warfare. Since the Kinmen 0214
incident, although China has deployed more coast guard vessels to patrol and has
increasingly crossed the median line of the Taiwan Strait—thereby undermining the
previous tacit understanding of separate administrative control over respective waters—
it has not yet carried out actual boarding inspections or law enforcement operations.
Regarding the Taiwan Strait, China primarily uses military means to demonstrate its
position. Notably, in June 2025, China’s aircraft carriers Liaoning and Shandong
conducted an unprecedented simultaneous deployment into the Western Pacific, crossing
the Second Island Chain. This demonstrated China’s potential for long-range operations
and served to shift international attention from the Taiwan Strait to the western Pacific.
Comparisons of the Three Cases
Based on the comparison of the above three cases, it is evident that due to differences
in objectives and the number and strength of neighboring countries, China has adopted
different approaches in its use of gray-zone strategies. Two key characteristics can be
summarized.
JANUS.NET, e-journal of International Relations
e-ISSN: 1647-7251
VOL. 16, Nº. 2
November 2025-April 2026, pp. 118-136
Rethinking China’s Gray-Zone Strategies: Cases from the East China Sea, South China Sea,
and Taiwan Strait
Hsiao-Chuan Liao
131
First, the frequency and type of gray-zone strategies that China employs in the South
China Sea, East China Sea, and Taiwan Strait vary according to its strategic objectives
in each region. The greater level of the impacts on sovereignty, the less frequently gray-
zone strategies are employed, and the more likely China is to resort to military means to
signal its concern in the area. The greater the impact on sovereignty, the less frequently
gray-zone strategies are employed, and the more likely China is to resort to military
means to signal its concerns. That is, China tends to employ military means in response
to issues it perceives as serious violations of its sovereignty, while adopting gray-zone
strategies for situations it views as involving lesser infringements. In the Taiwan Strait,
China relies less on gray-zone strategies and more on quasi-military actions, such as
deploying over 500 missiles aimed at Taiwan, regularly sending military aircraft and naval
vessels across the median line, and conducting military exercises that gradually approach
Taiwan’s territorial waters. In the East China Sea, the CCG accompanied by military
vessels is the primary tool used to intervene in the status quo. In contrast, in the South
China Sea, gray-zone tactics are effective for harassing other countries aiming to
gradually change the status quo, while military means may provoke stronger resentment
and lead to conflict, making them less preferable.
Specifically, China’s objectives in the South China Sea are twofold: to assert economic
sovereign rights and to establish an alternative order to the U.S.-led liberal international
order. Physical occupation of the entire South China Sea is not its primary goal. Moreover,
its opponents in the region are relatively weak and fragmented; none can individually
challenge China’s power, though their collective number exceeds that of China’s
opponents in the East China Sea and Taiwan Strait. To avoid provoking excessive
reactions and escalation into military conflict, China is more inclined to employ gray-zone
strategies. In the East China Sea, China’s goals include preserving its sovereign rights
and asserting sovereignty over the Diaoyu/Senkaku Islands. However, its opponent,
Japan, is not weak and benefits from the protection of the U.S.-Japan security treaty.
Hence, to avoid war or confrontation with the U.S., gray-zone strategies are preferred,
but more severe levels are employed to signal its serious concerns over the
Diaoyu/Senkaku Islands. Lastly, China’s goal in the Taiwan Strait is unification with
Taiwan, for which it has never ruled out the use of force. Thus, gray-zone strategies are
less emphasized, as China is willing to demonstrate its resolve to avoid losing Taiwan.
Secondly, regarding the likelihood of triggering military conflicts, the five gray-zone
tactics identified in this paper can be ranked as shown in Figure 1. The greater the impact
on sovereignty, the more China tends to employ gray-zone tactics with higher risks of
provoking conflict. In contrast, when sovereignty is less affected, it prefers gray-zone
tactics that are less likely to escalate into war.
Figure 1. Severity of Gray-Zone Tactics
Source: the author. Note: Dual activities refer to the mixing of civilian and military activities.
Less likely Most likely
Narrative psychological legal dual activities governmental jurisdiction
warfare warfare warfare warfare
JANUS.NET, e-journal of International Relations
e-ISSN: 1647-7251
VOL. 16, Nº. 2
November 2025-April 2026, pp. 118-136
Rethinking China’s Gray-Zone Strategies: Cases from the East China Sea, South China Sea,
and Taiwan Strait
Hsiao-Chuan Liao
132
Given that China’s objective in the Taiwan Strait is to achieve sovereignty over Taiwan,
it remains prepared for the possibility of war, even if it does not anticipate immediate
conflict, and thus does not hesitate to employ gray-zone tactics carrying a high risk of
escalation. In the East China Sea, which also involves sovereignty disputes, China prefers
employing high-intensity gray-zone tactics but seeks to avoid provoking military conflict
due to the presence of the U.S.-Japan alliance. In the South China Sea, where multiple
rival claimant states exist, China tends to employ gray-zone tactics that are less likely to
provoke military conflict. By doing so, it allows different countries to interpret its actions
in varying ways, increasing the likelihood of avoiding war (Liao, 2021, pp. 33–35).
Conclusions
Gray-zone strategies are not a newly emergent phenomenon. However, in recent years,
they have re-emerged on the international stage due to Russia’s annexation of Crimea
and China’s increasingly assertive and aggressive behaviors in the Indo-Pacific region.
Nonetheless, including tactics with explicit military characteristics under the definition of
gray-zone strategies risks obscuring the significance of non-military means within gray-
zone operations, as well as their fundamental objective of avoiding open warfare.
Therefore, this paper redefines gray-zone strategies as a country's attempt to change or
influence another country's sovereignty rights or policies through governmental or non-
governmental actions, thereby redefining mutual strategic interests. Based on a review
of the literature, this study identifies five types of non-military gray-zone tactics, ranked
according to their potential to trigger military conflict: narrative warfare, psychological
warfare, legal warfare, mixing of civilian and military activities, and governmental
jurisdiction warfare.
Based on this analysis, this paper examines China’s use of gray-zone tactics in the South
China Sea, East China Sea, and Taiwan Strait, and identifies two key characteristics.
First, China tends to employ military means in response to issues it perceives as serious
violations of its sovereignty, while adopting gray-zone strategies in situations it views as
involving lesser infringements. Second, the greater the impact on its sovereignty, the
more China tends to employ gray-zone tactics that carry a higher risk of provoking
conflict. In contrast, when sovereignty is less affected, it prefers gray-zone tactics that
are less likely to escalate into war. These two characteristics can be attributed to the
different objectives China pursues in the South China Sea, East China Sea, and Taiwan
Strait, as well as variations in the nature and capabilities of its opponents. Consequently,
the effects produced by gray-zone strategies in these three regions also differ.
In the South China Sea, China’s gray-zone strategies have produced evolutionary impacts
on the international order. Although these tactics are non-military in nature, they
implicitly signal the possibility of subsequent military action. Through such psychological
deterrence aimed at undermining the adversary’s will to resist, the actor can gradually
alter the status quo in a 'salami-slicing' manner. For instance, despite winning the 2016
arbitration case on the South China Sea, the Philippines lost control of Scarborough Shoal
due to China’s gray-zone tactics. Yet former President Duterte publicly stated that the
Philippines could not and would not confront China unless it meant going to war. In this
sense, gray-zone strategies function as tools of coercive deterrence, seeking to replace
JANUS.NET, e-journal of International Relations
e-ISSN: 1647-7251
VOL. 16, Nº. 2
November 2025-April 2026, pp. 118-136
Rethinking China’s Gray-Zone Strategies: Cases from the East China Sea, South China Sea,
and Taiwan Strait
Hsiao-Chuan Liao
133
the U.S.-led liberal international order based on the rule of law with a China-led order
grounded merely in rule by law.
It is noteworthy that in all three regions—the South China Sea, East China Sea, and
Taiwan Strait—China’s use of gray-zone strategies is underpinned by its expanding
military capabilities. In the South China Sea, China has enhanced its effective control
over disputed features through island-building, administrative measures, and resource
extraction, using these as a foundation to actively reshape regional order in competition
with the U.S.-led liberal international order, shifting the power configuration toward a
new equilibrium. In the East China Sea, although a “new normal” of joint management
between China and Japan appears to have emerged, this arrangement is neither
symmetrical nor static. For instance, Japan Coast Guard (JCG) patrol vessels are not
equipped with heavy weaponry such as cannons, whereas CCG vessels are, meaning the
seemingly stable situation could tilt further in China’s favor at any time. In the Taiwan
Strait, the effects of China’s gray-zone strategies are felt more as psychological
deterrence against the Taiwanese public, as well as in establishing both the capability
and legitimacy to exclude international intervention.
In light of this, while countries must handle and respond to China’s use of gray-zone
tactics with caution, greater attention should be paid to the underlying expansion of
China’s military capabilities and influence. When confronted with these near-harassment
gray-zone tactics, countries should also consider responding with asymmetric or lower-
cost measures that nonetheless are of great concern to China, such as increasing
exchanges with Taiwan or enhancing Taiwan’s international status. If such actions are
taken by individual states, they may provoke Chinese retaliation. However, if countries
act collectively to strengthen their relations with Taiwan, even minor progress could be
enough to significantly unsettle China and shift its original strategic focus. In other words,
rather than allowing China to address the South China Sea, East China Sea, and Taiwan
Strait separately through distinct gray-zone tactics, a coordinated approach that targets
China’s vulnerabilities could prove far more effective in countering its use of gray-zone
strategies.
References
Asia Maritime Transparency Initiative. (2024, August 22). Shifting tactics at Second
Thomas Shoal. Center for Strategic & International Studies.
https://amti.csis.org/shifting-tactics-at-second-thomas-shoal/
Barno, D., & Bensahel, N. (2015, May 19). Fighting and winning in the gray-zone. War
on the Rocks. https://warontherocks.com/2015/05/fighting-and-winning-in-the-gray-
zone/
Bau, T. H., Tso, C. T., & Liao, H. C. (2014). Taiwan, Philippines, Japan, China, and United
States crisis event database, 2001–2013 (Chinese-English bilingual version). Center for
Public Policy and Law, National Taiwan University.
Brands, H. (2016, February). Paradoxes of the gray-zone. National Security Program,
Foreign Policy Research Institute. https://www.fpri.org/article/2016/02/paradoxes-gray-
zone/
JANUS.NET, e-journal of International Relations
e-ISSN: 1647-7251
VOL. 16, Nº. 2
November 2025-April 2026, pp. 118-136
Rethinking China’s Gray-Zone Strategies: Cases from the East China Sea, South China Sea,
and Taiwan Strait
Hsiao-Chuan Liao
134
Chen, Y. (2019). 中美關係海軍職能與中美南海灰色地帶競爭 [Naval functions in China-U.S.
relations and gray-zone competition in the South China Sea]. 搜狐網 [Sohu].
https://www.sohu.com/a/359148039_619333
China Coast Guard. (2023, November 1). 中國海警依法管控日非法進入我釣魚島領海船隻 [The
China Coast Guard has lawfully managed and controlled Japanese vessels illegally
entering the territorial waters of our Diaoyu Islands].
https://www.ccg.gov.cn/hjyw/202405/t20240515_1133.html
Cooper, Z., & Shearer, A. (2017). Thinking clearly about China’s layered Indo-Pacific
strategy. Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, 73, 305 - 311.
Dai, Z., & Hong, Y. (2019). 美國學界對「灰色地帶」挑戰的認知 [American academic
perspectives on “gray-zone” challenges]. International Outlook, (4), 83–88.
de Castro, R.C., & Chambers, P. (2022). The Philippines’ responses to Chinese gray zone
operations triggered by the 2021 passage of China’s New Coast Guard Law and the
Whitsun Reef standoff. Asian Affairs: An American Review, 49, 193 - 216.
Demetri Sevastopulo, & Hille, K. (2019, April 28). US warns China on aggressive acts by
fishing boats and coast guard. Financial Times. https://www.ft.com/content/ab4b1602-
696a-11e9-80c7-60ee53e6681d
Gerasimov, V. (2013, February 27). The value of science in prediction. Institute for
European Studies. https://www.ies.be/files/Gerasimov%20HW%20ENG.pdf
Gomez. (2024). https://apnews.com/article/south-china-sea-territorial-dispute-
philippines-us-c7f22418e276d689c2dcacfed4d0a494
Gutierrez, P. (2024, April 15). Any Filipino soldier killed by foreign power to invoke
defense treaty with US – Marcos. ABS-CBN News. https://www.abs-
cbn.com/news/2024/4/15/any-filipino-soldier-killed-by-foreign-power-to-invoke-
defense-treaty-with-us-marcos-1752
Holmes, J., & Yoshihara, T. (2012, April 23). Small-stick diplomacy in the South China
Sea. The National Interest. https://nationalinterest.org/commentary/small-stick-
diplomacy-the-south-china-sea-6831
Hsu, C. J. (2016, July 30). 宣示南海主權！中國駭客入侵越南機場電腦系統 [China asserts
South China Sea sovereignty: Chinese hackers infiltrate Vietnamese airport computer
systems]. Up Media. https://www.upmedia.mg/news_info.php?SerialNo=1305
James Holmes, & Yoshihara, T. (2012, April 23). Small-stick diplomacy in the South China
Sea. The National Interest. https://nationalinterest.org/commentary/small-stick-
diplomacy-the-south-china-sea-6831
Kosuke, T. (2025, March 25). China Coast Guard makes its longest intrusion into disputed
East China Sea waters. The Diplomat. https://thediplomat.com/2025/03/china-coast-
guard-makes-its-longest-intrusion-into-disputed-east-china-sea-waters/
Liao, H. C. (2012, November). 中國灰色地帶策略對印太國際秩序的影響與美日回應 [The impact
of China’s gray-zone strategy on the Indo-Pacific order and U.S.-Japan responses]. In 蘇
嘉宏 (Ed.), 日本新安保法治與海洋政策岩溪 (pp. 133–160). 高雄: 國家海洋研究院.
JANUS.NET, e-journal of International Relations
e-ISSN: 1647-7251
VOL. 16, Nº. 2
November 2025-April 2026, pp. 118-136
Rethinking China’s Gray-Zone Strategies: Cases from the East China Sea, South China Sea,
and Taiwan Strait
Hsiao-Chuan Liao
135
Liao, H. C. (2021, September). 中國大陸在東海與南海的灰色地帶策略 [Mainland China’s
gray-zone strategy in East China Sea and South China Sea]. In Proceedings of the
Symposium on “East Asia Situation during the Biden Administration” (pp. 25–40). 新北市
: 法務部調查局.
Makoto, S., & Becker-Weinberg, V. (2024). What next for Japan and the Republic of
Korea in the East China Sea? The law of the sea perspective. International Law Studies,
103, 614–665.
Mazarr, M. (2015). Mastering the gray-zone: Understanding a changing era of conflict.
U.S. Army War College Press.
McLaughlin, R. (2022). The Law of the Sea and PRC Gray-Zone Operations in the South
China Sea. American Journal of International Law, 116, 821 - 835.
Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Japan. (2025, June 1). Trends in China Coast Guard and
other vessels in the waters surrounding the Senkaku Islands, and Japan's response.
https://www.mofa.go.jp/region/page23e_000021.html
O’Rourke, R. (2019, January 31). China’s actions in South and East China Seas:
Implications for U.S. interests—Background and issues for Congress (CRS Report No.
R42784). Congressional Research Service.
https://crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/R/R42784/88
Pajon, C. (2017). Japan’s Coast Guard and Maritime Self-Defense Force in the East China
Sea: Can a Black-and-White System Adapt to a Gray-Zone Reality? Asia Policy, 23, 111
- 130.
Park, C. H. (1975). Sino-Japanese-Korean sea resources controversy and the hypothesis
of a 200-mile economic zone. Harvard International Law Journal, 16, 27.
Patalano, A. (2019). When strategy is ‘hybrid’ and not ‘grey’: reviewing Chinese military
and constabulary coercion at sea. PACIFIC REVIEW, 31(6), 811-839. Advance online
publication. https://doi.org/10.1080/09512748.2018.1513546
Reuters. (2024, June 7). Chinese armed vessels patrol waters around disputed islands,
angering Japan. https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/chinese-armed-vessels-
patrol-waters-around-disputed-islands-angering-japan-2024-06-07/
Sebastian, M.A. (2021). China’s Gray Zone Operations in the South China Sea;
Manipulating Weaknesses. Palgrave Studies in Maritime Politics and Security.
Secretary of Defense. (2010). The Quadrennial Defense Review (QDR) of the U.S.
https://history.defense.gov/Portals/70/Documents/quadrennial/QDR2010.pdf?ver=vVJY
RVwNdnGb_00ixF0UfQ%3d%3d
Seta, M., & Becker-Weinberg, V. (2024). What next for Japan and the Republic of Korea
in the East China Sea? The law of the sea perspective. International Law Studies, 103,
614–665.
Sheppard, L. R., Friend, A. H., Donahoe, M., Conklin, M., Kiernan, J., Dalton, M., Hicks,
K. H., & Federici, J. (2019, August 13). By other means part II: Adapting to compete in
JANUS.NET, e-journal of International Relations
e-ISSN: 1647-7251
VOL. 16, Nº. 2
November 2025-April 2026, pp. 118-136
Rethinking China’s Gray-Zone Strategies: Cases from the East China Sea, South China Sea,
and Taiwan Strait
Hsiao-Chuan Liao
136
the gray zone. Center for Strategic and International Studies.
https://www.csis.org/analysis/other-means-part-ii
Sun, Tzu. (n.d.). The art of war.
https://chinesenotes.com/sunzibingfa/sunzibingfa001.html
Tai, C., & Hung, Y. S. (2019). 美國學界對「灰色地帶」挑戰的認知 [American academic
perspectives on “gray-zone” challenges]. 國際展望, (4).
http://www.aisixiang.com/data/117399-2.html
Tsai, C. M. (2022, August 3). 裴洛西訪台前總統府等網站遇襲 專家：中國駭客所為 [Presidential
Office and other websites attacked ahead of Pelosi’s Taiwan visit; experts attribute to
Chinese hackers]. 中央通訊社 [Central News Agency].
https://www.cna.com.tw/news/aipl/202208030046.aspx
Valery, G. (2013, February 27). The value of science in prediction. Institute for European
Studies. https://www.ies.be/files/Gerasimov%20HW%20ENG.pdf
Wu, W. R. (2025, February 14). 金門0214事件滿1年 中國海警船侵擾水域 [One year since
the Kinmen 0214 Incident: Chinese Coast Guard vessels continue intrusions into the
waters]. 中央通訊社 [Central News Agency].
https://www.cna.com.tw/news/acn/202502140308.aspx
Xinhua News. (2017, August 12). 第一次對外海上作戰：1974年西沙海戰 [China’s first
external naval combat: The 1974 Paracel Islands battle]. Xinhuanet.
http://www.xinhuanet.com//politics/2017-08/12/c_1121473514.htm
Yim, H. (2025, April 24). South Korea expressed concern over Chinese structure in
disputed area of sea. Reuters. https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/south-korea-
expressed-concern-over-chinese-structure-disputed-area-sea-2025-04-24/
Yomiuri Shimbun. (2024, November 3). China sent ‘monster’ patrol ship around Japan’s
Senkaku Islands in June, likely responding to U.S. dispatch.
https://japannews.yomiuri.co.jp/politics/defense-security/20241103-220415/
Zhang, K. (2019). Cautious Bully: Reputation, Resolve, and Beijing's Use of Coercion in
the South China Sea. International Security, 44, 117-159.
OBSERVARE
Universidade Autónoma de Lisboa
e-ISSN: 1647-7251
VOL. 16, Nº. 2
November 2025-April 2026
137
REBUILDING THE “ARSENAL OF DEMOCRACY”: A STRATEGIC ASSESSMENT OF
THE UNITED STATES NATIONAL DEFENSE INDUSTRIAL STRATEGY
TRAN BACH HIEU
bachhieu2020@gmail.com
Ph.D. He is Head of the Faculty of Laws, International Relation and Politics, Thai Binh University
(Vietnam). His research focuses on International Relation in Asia - Pacific Region, Global Issues
and Comparative Politics. https://orcid.org/0009-0002-3037-2182
LE HOANG KIET
kietlh.tg@yersin.edu.vn
Ph.D Candidate at the Faculty of International Studies, University of Social Sciences and
Humanities, Vietnam National University, Hanoi (Vietnam). His research focuses on exploring
competitive power relations among great powers through realism and geopolitical theories.
https://orcid.org/0009-0002-9968-1952
TRAN XUAN HIEP
txhiep@ued.udn.vn
Associate Professor, Ph.D. He is Lecturer at The University of Da Nang, University of Science and
Education (Vietnam). His research interests include general political and international relations
issues, the Southeast Asian and Indo-Pacific regions, and Vietnam’s international integration.
https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5236-993X
Abstract
This paper provides a comprehensive analysis of the US’ National Defense Industrial Strategy
(NDIS), announced by the Department of Defense in January 2024 as a strategic response to
the evolving dynamics of global security. Amid growing competition among major powers -
particularly from China and Russia - the NDIS aims to revitalize the US DIB through four
strategic pillars: (a) enhancing supply chain resilience, (b) developing a high-quality and
diverse workforce, (c) reforming procurement processes, and (d) strengthening international
cooperation for economic deterrence. Employing a systemic-structural approach, the study
integrates qualitative methods such as policy analysis, document analysis, interpretive
techniques, and strategic forecasting to scientifically examine the objectives, implementation
mechanisms, strengths, and limitations of the NDIS. While the strategy presents a robust and
forward-looking framework, it also faces significant structural limitations, including (a)
concerns about financial sustainability, (b) internal tensions between protectionist policies and
global cooperation goals, (c) innovation bottlenecks, and (d) a lack of comparative analysis
with the capabilities of “potential” adversaries. By addressing a notable gap in existing
academic research, this paper provides in-depth insights into the NDIS. The findings
contribute to a deeper understanding of how the US seeks to maintain technological
superiority and strategic primacy in a turbulent international system marked by rising
instability and complex security threats.
JANUS.NET, e-journal of International Relations
e-ISSN: 1647-7251
VOL. 16, Nº. 2
November 2025-April 2026, pp. 137-156
Rebuilding the “Arsenal Of Democracy”: A Strategic Assessment of the United States National
Defense Industrial Strategy
Tran Bach Hieu, Le Hoang Kiet, Tran Xuan Hiep
138
Keywords
Defense, strategic competition, National Defense Industrial Strategy, Department of Defense,
United States.
Resumo
Este artigo fornece uma análise abrangente da Estratégia Industrial de Defesa Nacional (EIDN)
dos EUA, anunciada pelo Departamento de Defesa em janeiro de 2024 como uma resposta
estratégica às dinâmicas evolutivas da segurança global. Em meio à crescente competição
entre as grandes potências - particularmente da China e da Rússia - a EIDN visa revitalizar a
Base Industrial de Defesa dos EUA através de quatro pilares estratégicos: (a) aprimoramento
da resiliência da cadeia de suprimentos, (b) desenvolvimento de uma força de trabalho de
alta qualidade e diversificada, (c) reforma dos processos de aquisição, e (d) fortalecimento
da cooperação internacional para dissuasão económica. Empregando uma abordagem
sistémico-estrutural, o estudo integra métodos qualitativos como análise de políticas, análise
documental, técnicas interpretativas e previsão estratégica para examinar cientificamente os
objetivos, mecanismos de implementação, pontos fortes e limitações da EIDN. Embora a
estratégia apresente uma estrutura robusta e visionária, também enfrenta limitações
estruturais significativas, incluindo (a) preocupações sobre sustentabilidade financeira, (b)
tensões internas entre políticas protecionistas e objetivos de cooperação global, (c) gargalos
de inovação, e (d) falta de análise comparativa com as capacidades de adversários
“potenciais”. Ao abordar uma lacuna notável na investigação académica existente, este artigo
fornece perspetivas aprofundadas sobre a EIDN. As conclusões contribuem para uma
compreensão mais profunda de como os EUA procuram manter a superioridade tecnológica e
a primazia estratégica num sistema internacional turbulento marcado pela crescente
instabilidade e ameaças de segurança complexas.
Palavras-chave
Defesa, competição estratégica, Estratégia Industrial de Defesa Nacional, Departamento de
Defesa, Estados Unidos.
How to cite this article
Hieu, Tran Bach, Kiet, Le Hoang & Hiep, Tran Xuan (2025). Rebuilding the “Arsenal Of Democracy”:
A Strategic Assessment of the United States National Defense Industrial Strategy. Janus.net, e-
journal of international relations. VOL. 16, Nº. 2, November 2025-April 2026, pp. 137-156. DOI
https://doi.org/10.26619/1647-7251.16.2.8
Article submitted on 19th July 2025 and accepted for publication on 9th September 2025.
JANUS.NET, e-journal of International Relations
e-ISSN: 1647-7251
VOL. 16, Nº. 2
November 2025-April 2026, pp. 137-156
Rebuilding the “Arsenal Of Democracy”: A Strategic Assessment of the United States National
Defense Industrial Strategy
Tran Bach Hieu, Le Hoang Kiet, Tran Xuan Hiep
139
REBUILDING THE “ARSENAL OF DEMOCRACY”: A STRATEGIC
ASSESSMENT OF THE UNITED STATES NATIONAL DEFENSE
INDUSTRIAL STRATEGY
TRAN BACH HIEU
LE HOANG KIET
TRAN XUAN HIEP
Introduction
Global politics is currently witnessing a profound geostrategic transformation phase,
marked by the reshaping of the power balance between major powers and the erosion of
the foundation of the current international order (Levy & Singhal, 2025). The
contemporary era is characterized by an unprecedented level of geopolitical instability
since the end of the Cold War, with increasingly evident geostrategic fault lines across
the global spectrum (Kiet & Hiep, 2025, p. 3). The Russia-Ukraine conflict has
transitioned into a protracted conflict phase with extensive strategic consequences, as
Russia accelerates the transformation of its socioeconomic structure to a wartime model
and intensifies military campaigns in Ukraine (Global Conflict Tracker, 2025).
Concurrently, the Middle East situation faces the risk of conflict expansion from the
Israel-Hamas flashpoint into a comprehensive regional confrontation, with complex
developments in the Red Sea, Lebanon, Iraq, and Iran significantly increasing the risk of
escalation into a regional-level conflict (Financial Times, 2024). In this context, China’s
rise under President Xi Jinping with increasingly evident geopolitical ambitions through
“wolf warrior diplomacy” has reshaped the security environment in the Indo-Pacific region
(Kiet et al., 2025). Beijing’s robust military modernization combined with assertive “nine-
dash line” claims in the East Sea, particularly regarding the Taiwan issue, has created
urgent challenges to the US-led regional security architecture in this region (Soong,
2021; Kiet et al., 2024).
The intersection of these strategic competitive dynamics has prompted a systemic shift
in how the Biden administration perceives and responds to the increasingly complex
multi-dimensional security environment. To effectively address these geostrategic
fluctuations and maintain superior military-technological positioning, the US Department
of Defense (DoD) released the National Defense Industrial Strategy (NDIS) on January
11, 2024, as a comprehensive policy framework in efforts to restore the “arsenal of
democracy” coordinated between the US and Western allies. The NDIS establishes a
strategic vision and four priority pillars aimed at restructuring and enhancing the
JANUS.NET, e-journal of International Relations
e-ISSN: 1647-7251
VOL. 16, Nº. 2
November 2025-April 2026, pp. 137-156
Rebuilding the “Arsenal Of Democracy”: A Strategic Assessment of the United States National
Defense Industrial Strategy
Tran Bach Hieu, Le Hoang Kiet, Tran Xuan Hiep
140
resilience of the US Defense Industrial Base (DIB) against diverse and increasingly
sophisticated threats from nations intending to end the US-led “rules-based” world order.
This strategy builds upon the foundation of the 2022 National Defense Strategy (NDS),
while emphasizing a systematic and integrated approach in mobilizing DoD resources to
“build multifaceted partnerships with domestic and international stakeholders to
strengthen the DIB, optimize logistics systems, and enhance the resilience of global
defense supply chains against sabotage, infiltration, and technology theft” (US
Department of Defense, 2022). Entering his second term in 2025, President Donald
Trump has not yet made substantial adjustments to the NDIS, and has even proposed
cutting budgets in healthcare, education, and clean energy sectors to increase defense
funding (Kapur, 2025). Simultaneously, President Donald Trump has implemented
reforms in foreign weapons sales within the NDIS framework to improve rapid weapons
transfer to partners (White House, 2025) - President Trump’s actions demonstrate that
the DoD will inherit and continue implementing the NDIS despite it being a strategy
developed under President Joe Biden - whom President Trump claims left “a huge mess”
for US.
Although the NDIS holds particular importance for the US as well as countries worldwide,
the global academic database contains a research gap in conducting in-depth and
comprehensive analysis of the content, impact, and potential limitations of the NDIS.
Since the DoD released the NDIS in early 2024 until the present (May 2025), a review of
all Scopus/WoS academic data through keyword search for “National Defense Industrial
Strategy” has not revealed any in-depth international research analyzing this strategy.
This research aims to fill this important knowledge gap through systematic analysis of
NDIS content, assessment of its implications, and identification of fundamental
advantages and limitations in this policy design. The research findings will not only
enhance deep understanding of strategic directions in US defense technology, but also
provide valuable insights for other countries in developing appropriate policy responses
in a global security environment undergoing profound and comprehensive
transformations.
2. Methodology
The research is designed on a systemic-structural approach through utilizing policy
analysis methods to systematically examine the NDIS. Simultaneously, this research
integrates document analysis and strategic interpretation and forecasting techniques to
provide a scientific, logical research process for detailed assessment of the strengths and
weaknesses of the NDIS. The research design follows a structured analytical framework
with three interconnected phases:
The first phase conducts an extensive and systematic literature review, focusing on key
data sources. Specifically, the research collects and analyzes: (a) the original text of the
NDIS and accompanying technical appendices; (b) supplementary official documentation
from the DoD, including strategic reports, policy statements, and implementation plans;
(c) policy messages from relevant US government agencies; and (d) in-depth analyses
from the international security research community through media channels. This
document synthesis methodology allows for building a solid knowledge foundation about
JANUS.NET, e-journal of International Relations
e-ISSN: 1647-7251
VOL. 16, Nº. 2
November 2025-April 2026, pp. 137-156
Rebuilding the “Arsenal Of Democracy”: A Strategic Assessment of the United States National
Defense Industrial Strategy
Tran Bach Hieu, Le Hoang Kiet, Tran Xuan Hiep
141
the internal components of the NDIS, the strategic-historical context of policy formation,
and multidimensional assessments from global defense and security experts.
The second phase deploys policy analysis methods, combining interpretive techniques
and document analysis to decode and evaluate the four strategic pillars of the NDIS. This
process includes in-depth examination of: (a) the theoretical foundation and conceptual
framework underlying strategic priorities; (b) specific policy implications and practical
application capabilities; (c) implementation mechanisms and performance evaluation
indicators; and (d) potential barriers in strategy execution.
The final phase focuses on comprehensive assessment of the effectiveness, feasibility,
advantages, and limitations of the NDIS. This includes thorough examination of the
strategy’s alignment with broader US foreign security policy objectives, its potential
impact on international defense cooperation, and its responsiveness to contemporary
global security challenges, particularly in protecting allies in the European region and the
Indo-Pacific region.
In general, this methodology ensures a rigorous, multidimensional, and highly systematic
analytical process, allowing the research not only to capture the technical and strategic
aspects of the NDIS, but also to assess the broader implications of this strategy for global
security architecture in the context of ongoing power competition between major powers.
3. Results
3.1. Overview of the NDIS: Four Pillars for Sustainable Development of
US Defense Capabilities in the Context of Global Strategic Competition
The NDIS represents a significant strategic shift in the US approach to the DIB through
a comprehensive policy framework released on January 11, 2024 (Cook, 2024). This 59-
page strategic document concretizes the foundational principles established in the NDS,
reflecting a profound understanding of the systemic challenges facing the US defense
industrial ecosystem amid rapidly changing international security conditions. Status
assessments in the NDIS have identified structural weaknesses including bureaucratic
system inertia, lack of flexibility in adapting to emerging technologies, and uneven
investment in human resource development and supply chain optimization (Department
of Defense, 2023). The core objective of the NDIS is to build an advanced, highly resilient,
and rapidly adaptable defense industrial ecosystem, not only to effectively deter US
strategic competitors but also to promptly meet increasing production demands in an
increasingly unstable security environment (US Department of Defense, 2024a). Laura
Taylor-Kale, Assistant Secretary of Defense for Industrial Base Policy, who led the
research team developing the NDIS, emphasized the strategic importance of this
initiative:
We are implementing the NDIS with the goal of ensuring that the DIB not
only continues to be the foundation for domestic national security, but also
serves as a key tool in reassuring and supporting our global network of allies
and partners (US Department of Defense, 2024a).
JANUS.NET, e-journal of International Relations
e-ISSN: 1647-7251
VOL. 16, Nº. 2
November 2025-April 2026, pp. 137-156
Rebuilding the “Arsenal Of Democracy”: A Strategic Assessment of the United States National
Defense Industrial Strategy
Tran Bach Hieu, Le Hoang Kiet, Tran Xuan Hiep
142
The NDIS shapes three key strategic objectives with specific implementation roadmaps:
(a) Comprehensive modernization of defense and deterrence capabilities through focused
investment in technological innovation, enhancing supply chain resilience, and promoting
extensive international cooperation with strategic allies prioritized in the NSS. The
strategy emphasizes engaging partner countries more deeply in the production and
processing stages of essential materials, aiming to minimize dependence on potentially
“confrontational” nations such as China, Russia, and other non-allied countries (American
Economic Association, 2024); (b) Ensuring the DIB is optimized to effectively address
national security challenges within the medium-term strategic timeframe of 3-5 years
(Levantovscaia, 2024). This objective recognizes the increasingly complex and
unpredictable geopolitical environment due to fluctuations from the prolonged Russia-
Ukraine conflict and China’s increasing military actions around the Taiwan Strait; and (c)
Building and maintaining a modern, robust, autonomous, and rapidly adaptive DIB to
effectively implement comprehensive deterrence strategy and consolidate the US’s
superior global position (Taylor, 2024).
The NDIS focuses on four strategic priorities, with each pillar encompassing specific
priority areas along with expected outcomes and measurable outputs:
a) First Pillar: Building Flexible and Responsive Supply Chains
The NDIS establishes as its first key foundation the creation of a supply chain ecosystem
with high adaptability and immediate response capabilities. This structure is designed to
ensure continuous production capability of essential products, services, and technologies
meeting military force requirements-not only for the present but also anticipating future
needs-at optimal scale and reasonable cost (Industrial Base Policy, 2024). Implementing
this model requires synchronized development of multiple multidimensional coordination
mechanisms. To achieve this goal, the NDIS advocates building a comprehensive public-
private cooperation system, in which risk-sharing and technology transfer mechanisms
are systematically established, creating incentives for the private sector to invest in
developing contingency capabilities and enhancing resilience after disruption events.
Concurrently, this strategy proposes significantly increasing strategic reserves for critical
systems and materials, while promoting supplier network diversification within the DIB,
expanding diverse production methods, and implementing comprehensive solutions to
effectively respond to cybersecurity threats targeting supply chains (Handfield, 2024).
The totality of these measures aims to ensure “flexible and timely responsiveness under
all operational conditions and strategic scenarios” (US Department of Defense, 2024a).
Complex developments from the COVID-19 pandemic, the Russia-Ukraine conflict, along
with shifts in the balance of power between global powers-particularly US-China strategic
competition-have clearly demonstrated that excessive dependence on specific supply
sources can lead to serious disruptions in supply chains, directly affecting national
security. In this context, the NDIS is promoting a comprehensive restructuring process
of the supply chain system oriented toward diversification and risk distribution. This
strategy includes developing manufacturing centers distributed across various
geographical regions within US territory and strategic allied countries such as the EU,
Japan, South Korea, Australia, Philippines; enhancing domestic production capacity for
JANUS.NET, e-journal of International Relations
e-ISSN: 1647-7251
VOL. 16, Nº. 2
November 2025-April 2026, pp. 137-156
Rebuilding the “Arsenal Of Democracy”: A Strategic Assessment of the United States National
Defense Industrial Strategy
Tran Bach Hieu, Le Hoang Kiet, Tran Xuan Hiep
143
critical components; and researching alternative materials for scarce strategic raw
materials, especially rare metals and rare earth elements (US Department of Defense,
2024c).
Recent research data reveals an important reality regarding China’s weapons production
capacity: the country currently accounts for 5.8% of total global arms exports during the
2019-2023 period, making China the fourth largest conventional weapons supplier in the
world, behind only the US, France, and Russia (Gunter and Legarda, 2024). Notably,
Chinese weapons technology is gradually dominating markets in South Asia, Sub-
Saharan Africa, and Southeast Asia regions, while expanding influence into Central Asia
and the Middle East. This phenomenon not only creates economic impacts but also
changes the geopolitical landscape, directly affecting governments and defense industries
of the US and its European allies. Facing strong and challenging development from
China’s weapons industry, the DoD is implementing a strategy integrating advanced
technologies such as 3D printing, advanced automation, and industrial internet of things
to significantly enhance flexibility and rapid response capability of the defense production
system (US Department of Defense, 2024c). Research Director and Senior Fellow at the
Carnegie Middle East Center - Hamzawy (2025), has provided the insightful observation
that conflicts between major powers in the current era will take the nature of prolonged
wars of attrition, in which the ability to rapidly expand production capacity during crisis
periods will play a decisive role in determining the final outcome of future conflicts.
Therefore, developing a highly adaptable and rapidly expandable production system is
not merely a strategic choice but a survival factor in maintaining military advantage and
ensuring US national security in the new era of strategic competition.
b) Second Pillar: Developing Highly Specialized and Diverse Human Resources
The NDIS focuses on developing a special workforce that not only meets quantitative
requirements but must also achieve high standards of professional quality while reflecting
the inherent diversity of US society (Industrial Base Policy, 2024). This strategy is not
simply an ordinary recruitment plan, but a comprehensive vision aimed at building an
elite workforce capable of adaptation and innovation in the unprecedented rapidly
developing defense technology environment. Drawing lessons from the Russia-Ukraine
conflict, the NDIS has identified the strategic priority of focusing on developing high-
quality human resources particularly in advanced combat technology fields, including
modern air defense systems, unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) technology, and hypersonic
missile systems. These fields have proven decisive importance in modern conflicts and
require specialist teams with exceptionally high expertise.
Parallel to enhancing professional quality, the NDIS also emphasizes expanding
recruitment scope toward traditionally undertapped communities, especially women and
ethnic minority groups (Indo-Pacific Defense Forum, 2024). This strategy aims not only
to create a workforce more representative of the US demographic structure but also to
comprehensively leverage diverse talent and perspectives from all sectors of society.
Research shows that diverse working groups typically have more creative problem-
solving abilities and deliver higher productivity in complex technical environments.
Parameter, DoD’s Talent Development Director, emphasized the urgency in attracting
JANUS.NET, e-journal of International Relations
e-ISSN: 1647-7251
VOL. 16, Nº. 2
November 2025-April 2026, pp. 137-156
Rebuilding the “Arsenal Of Democracy”: A Strategic Assessment of the United States National
Defense Industrial Strategy
Tran Bach Hieu, Le Hoang Kiet, Tran Xuan Hiep
144
young workforce with a strategic observation: “If we don’t bring more Generation Z
members into this workforce, we will not be able to fulfill our mission” (Shinego, 2025).
This statement reflects deep concern about ensuring continuity and sustainability in
defense workforce development, especially when facing the upcoming retirement wave
of the current generation of senior technical experts.
To realize this vision, the US government has implemented a system of multifaceted
collaborative initiatives between leading research universities, specialized technical
training institutions, and businesses in the defense industry. Scholarship and internship
programs have been significantly expanded in scale, creating opportunities for talented
students to access the defense industry from the early stages of their professional
training (Shinego, 2025). To address the shortage of high-quality human resources in
the semiconductor field, the DoD has expanded $11 million in funding to Purdue
University during 2022-2027 to strengthen training for US’s future microchip workforce,
as Washington consumes approximately 50% of microchips produced worldwide but only
about 12% of microchips are manufactured domestically (Vincent, 2022). Additionally,
the SMART scholarship is a flagship program attracting high-quality human resources to
work for the DoD; SMART has provided 1,419 scholarships, approximately 900
internships completed, and more than 1,000 scholars recruited into civilian work for the
DoD (LMI, n.d.). This program has collaborated with more than 200 sponsoring facilities
and more than 3,500 scholars, from pursuing degrees in key priority defense fields to
employment with the DoD (LMI, n.d.). Notably, in early 2024, five days after the NDIS
was released (January 16, 2024), the DoD announced the X-Force Fellowship program
for undergraduate students, graduate students, and recent graduates to have
opportunities to serve US by solving real national security problems such as hardware
design and prototyping, software development, data analysis and visualization,
technology reconnaissance, communications and marketing strategy, and defense policy
research in collaboration with DoD experts (More House, 2024). This strategy not only
helps nurture future generations of experts but also creates a direct talent pipeline from
educational institutions into the defense industry.
An equally important aspect in the NDIS is the focus on enhancing skills for the existing
workforce through specialized training programs on breakthrough technologies such as
artificial intelligence (AI), quantum computing, and cybersecurity (Vincent, 2024). These
pioneering technology fields not only shape the future of the defense industry but are
also key factors in maintaining the US strategic competitive advantage internationally.
Recent analysis reports from the DoD have indicated a concerning situation: “These
advanced technology fields are facing a serious shortage of highly specialized personnel,
particularly in the context of increasingly intense strategic competition with rival powers”
(Congressional Research Service, 2024). This shortage not only puts pressure on current
projects but also threatens the ability to develop and deploy advanced systems in the
future. The human resource development strategy in the NDIS extends far beyond
merely focusing on technical skills. It simultaneously emphasizes cultivating strategic
thinking and the ability to rapidly adapt to the constantly changing security environment.
In an era where threats develop at breakneck speed and are more diverse than ever
before, the creative thinking ability and rapid adaptability of defense human resources
become determining factors in the success of national security strategies. Therefore, the
DoD believes that the success of the NDIS depends greatly on the ability not only to
JANUS.NET, e-journal of International Relations
e-ISSN: 1647-7251
VOL. 16, Nº. 2
November 2025-April 2026, pp. 137-156
Rebuilding the “Arsenal Of Democracy”: A Strategic Assessment of the United States National
Defense Industrial Strategy
Tran Bach Hieu, Le Hoang Kiet, Tran Xuan Hiep
145
attract but also to retain exceptional talent in an extremely competitive environment with
the private sector, which often can offer more attractive compensation and more flexible
working environments (Industrial Base Policy, 2024). This is a significant challenge
requiring creative solutions in personnel policy, compensation mechanisms, and long-
term career development for specialists in the defense sector.
c) The Third Pillar: Reforming the Defense Procurement System
NDIS focuses on comprehensive reform of the defense procurement system-a key
element determining the adaptability and effectiveness of the entire national security
ecosystem. NDIS emphasizes the urgency of developing new procurement methods with
high flexibility, aimed at creating more responsive and dynamic capabilities while
maintaining a balance between important factors such as operational efficiency, long-
term maintenance capabilities, battlefield customization capacity, and compliance with
necessary standardization for defense support platforms and systems (Industrial Base
Policy, 2024). These flexible procurement models are expected to bring significant
improvements throughout the entire development and deployment cycle of defense
systems, focusing on substantially reducing the time from research to practical
deployment, optimizing overall costs, and enhancing production scalability when
necessary. Notably, NDIS also emphasizes designing systems with high interoperability
between the US and its strategic allies from the initial design phase, while carefully
considering factors related to potential future exportability (Alert, 2024). This strategy
reflects the US’ long-term vision in promoting international cooperation and enhancing
interoperability between allied forces, a factor becoming increasingly important in
modern military operations.
An important approach in NDIS is prioritizing procurement solutions based on
commercially available technology when conditions permit. This method not only aims to
promote innovation in the industry but also to significantly expand the supplier base for
the defense industry (Tabler, 2024). Effectively leveraging technologies and solutions
already developed and validated in the commercial market not only helps save significant
financial resources but also substantially shortens the time to operationalize new
systems-a factor of vital importance in today’s rapidly changing security environment.
To realize these ambitious objectives, the DoD is conducting a radical reform process
regarding traditional procurement procedures-which have frequently been criticized for
being cumbersome, inflexible, and no longer suitable for the pace of modern
technological development (Wong et al., 2024). The limitations of the current system
have been clearly reflected in the US Government Accountability Office (2024), which
points out that “the average time to develop and deploy a new weapons system-from
initial research to actual implementation-typically ranges from 7 to 10 years.” This
timeframe is too long and no longer appropriate in the context of the global security
environment changing at a dizzying pace, especially when strategic competitors are
continuously shortening their development cycles. To address these challenges, Ribeiro
(2024) has examined and analyzed the NDIS’s proposed series of synchronized reform
initiatives, including:
JANUS.NET, e-journal of International Relations
e-ISSN: 1647-7251
VOL. 16, Nº. 2
November 2025-April 2026, pp. 137-156
Rebuilding the “Arsenal Of Democracy”: A Strategic Assessment of the United States National
Defense Industrial Strategy
Tran Bach Hieu, Le Hoang Kiet, Tran Xuan Hiep
146
(1) Expanding and standardizing platform standards while enhancing interoperability
between different systems, facilitating rapid integration of new technologies and
minimizing dependence on specific suppliers.
(2) Strengthening rigorous technical requirements to limit “scope creep” - one of the
main causes of project delays and cost overruns in large-scale defense programs.
(3) Prioritizing readily available procurement solutions when tactically feasible and
reasonable, maximizing the use of technologies already proven in the commercial
market.
(4) Significantly improving DoD’s access to intellectual property rights and technical
data, enhancing efficiency in the procurement and maintenance of defense systems
throughout their operational lifecycle.
(5) Considering expanding and fundamentally reforming policies related to contract
strategy, facilitating the adoption of new models of cooperation between
government and the private sector.
(6) Continuing to promote procurement process reform initiatives, eliminating
unnecessary administrative barriers and optimizing decision-making processes.
(7) Comprehensively updating defense industry mobilization agencies and plans,
ensuring readiness to meet national security needs in all emergency situations.
These reforms reflect a turning point in the US approach to the defense procurement
system, shifting from the traditional rigid, sequential model to a significantly more
flexible, adaptive, and responsive system. This transformation not only aims to improve
efficiency and reduce costs but also ensures that US armed forces are always equipped
with the most advanced technologies in the shortest possible time, maintaining a
strategic competitive advantage in an increasingly complex and challenging global
security environment.
d) The Fourth Pillar: Building Economic Deterrence Capabilities and Promoting
International Cooperation
NDIS emphasizes the strategic importance of developing fair and effective competitive
market mechanisms to support the construction of a flexible DIB not only within the US
but also extending throughout the network of strategic allies and close partners globally
(Industrial Base Policy, 2024). The overall objective of this strategy is not simply to
enhance defense production capacity, but to establish an integrated economic security
system and comprehensive deterrence capability against countries identified as “hostile”
or potentially threatening to the security of the US and its allies. The focus of this
economic deterrence strategy is particularly aimed at the increasingly strong and deep
Russia-China alliance, especially after the Russia-Ukraine conflict erupted in 2022. The
strategic cooperative relationship between these two powers is not limited to the military
domain but extends to many other areas including technology, energy, and trade-forming
a multidimensional challenge to the national security interests of the US and its Western
allies. The US Deputy Secretary of Defense - Kathleen Hicks, has emphasized the
JANUS.NET, e-journal of International Relations
e-ISSN: 1647-7251
VOL. 16, Nº. 2
November 2025-April 2026, pp. 137-156
Rebuilding the “Arsenal Of Democracy”: A Strategic Assessment of the United States National
Defense Industrial Strategy
Tran Bach Hieu, Le Hoang Kiet, Tran Xuan Hiep
147
strategic importance of NDIS in building effective deterrence capabilities: “Developing
and empowering this modern defense industrial ecosystem is key to integrated
deterrence and building lasting advantages” (Department of Defense, 2023). This
statement reflects the profound recognition that in the modern world, deterrence
capability depends not only on pure military strength but also on the combined strength
of the entire economy and defense industrial ecosystem.
This strategy calls for a series of specific measures to strengthen economic-defense
cooperation between the US and its allies, including establishing new economic security
agreements and developing advanced mechanisms for technology sharing with partner
countries (US Department of Defense, 2024a). These economic and technological
constraints are not only intended to create direct economic benefits for the participating
parties but also to create a powerful deterrent effect by making potential “hostile”
countries face the prospect of being cut off from the international market system,
advanced technologies, and innovation centers of the US and its allies-a consequence
that could seriously damage their economic development and national security. In a
strategic statement, Deputy Secretary of Defense - Kathleen Hicks further clarified the
long-term vision and dual objectives of NDIS:
By aligning policies, investments, and activities internally and externally in a
manner appropriate to specific competitors, our industrial ecosystem can
enhance deterrence at maximum effectiveness. If deterrence fails, NDIS will
position our industrial ecosystem to provide our warriors with the necessary
capabilities-at the speed and scale-to defeat any nation attempting to harm
the security of the US, our allies, and our partners (Department of Defense,
2023).
This statement reflects the two-fold approach of the strategy: both enhancing deterrence
capabilities to prevent conflict before it begins and ensuring effective response capability
in case deterrence fails. Through promoting extensive economic cooperation with the
network of global allies and partners, the US not only creates an effective deterrence
mechanism but also significantly reduces dependence on countries with the potential to
cause tension or instability in providing critical defense-related materials and
technologies (National Defense Transportation Association, 2024). Additionally,
promoting economic-defense industrial cooperation with allies not only serves direct
security objectives but also contributes to enhancing the soft power of the US
internationally. The ability to create and maintain sustainable economic-defense alliances
not only brings direct material benefits but also creates profound geopolitical influence,
strengthening the US’ leadership position in the international system.
In general, NDIS represents a comprehensive strategic approach to strengthen defense
capabilities and enhance the competitive position of the US internationally. Through
building flexible supply chains, developing high-quality human resources, reforming the
procurement system, and promoting strategic economic partnerships, NDIS aims to
establish superior technological advantages, strong production capabilities, and economic
deterrence power against potential adversaries. This is a clear manifestation of the US’
JANUS.NET, e-journal of International Relations
e-ISSN: 1647-7251
VOL. 16, Nº. 2
November 2025-April 2026, pp. 137-156
Rebuilding the “Arsenal Of Democracy”: A Strategic Assessment of the United States National
Defense Industrial Strategy
Tran Bach Hieu, Le Hoang Kiet, Tran Xuan Hiep
148
determination to maintain its status as a military and economic superpower in the 21st
century.
3.2. Comprehensive Assessment of NDIS
NDIS represents a significant strategic advancement in the DoD’s multifaceted effort to
restructure and comprehensively modernize the DIB, aimed at responding promptly and
effectively to increasingly complex contemporary geopolitical challenges. In particular,
this strategy has been shaped and developed by the DoD in the context of escalating
security threats in both scale and nature due to China’s powerful rise with ambitions to
fundamentally change the current international order, the comprehensive Russia-Ukraine
conflict with far-reaching impacts on European security architecture, and the urgent need
to support Israel in addressing complex regional security threats, especially the conflict
with Hamas (US Department of Defense, 2024a). In-depth analysis of NDIS reveals
several notable strengths as well as limitations that need to be identified:
a) Strengths of NDIS
First, integrated and multidimensional strategic architecture: NDIS demonstrates an
innovative strategic vision by not merely addressing individual issues but establishing a
comprehensive and integrated systematic analytical framework, precisely identifying
structural challenges to the defense industry and proposing synchronized, highly
interconnected solutions. This strategy scientifically establishes four strategic priority
pillars, encompassing the entire defense industrial ecosystem from supply chains, high-
quality human resource development, procurement process improvements to enhanced
international cooperation, all aimed at building a highly adaptable, modern, and
sustainable defense industrial ecosystem. Notably, each strategic pillar has been
systematically concretized by DoD policymakers into 25 specialized activity areas with
specific objectives and clearly defined outputs, facilitating implementation and
effectiveness evaluation (Taylor, 2024). This structure reflects comprehensive strategic
thinking and a methodical approach to modernizing the DIB. Deeper analysis of the
strategic structure reveals that each pillar has been designed with a logical and balanced
architecture, including building flexible and highly resilient supply chains implemented
through eight specialized activity areas; developing high-quality human resources carried
out through five interconnected activity areas; comprehensive reform of the defense
procurement process divided into seven systematic activity areas; and strengthening
economic deterrence capabilities deployed through five specialized areas (Alert, 2024).
This integrated vision not only addresses short-term issues but also builds a solid
foundation for the long-term sustainable development of the defense industry, while
creating flexible mechanisms to adapt to unpredictable fluctuations in the global security
environment. This multidimensional and systematic approach has transcended the
framework of traditional defense industrial strategies, which often focus on individual
aspects while lacking an overall vision.
Second, strategic orientation promoting multinational cooperation: One of the
outstanding strengths of NDIS is its breakthrough approach in emphasizing the strategic
JANUS.NET, e-journal of International Relations
e-ISSN: 1647-7251
VOL. 16, Nº. 2
November 2025-April 2026, pp. 137-156
Rebuilding the “Arsenal Of Democracy”: A Strategic Assessment of the United States National
Defense Industrial Strategy
Tran Bach Hieu, Le Hoang Kiet, Tran Xuan Hiep
149
importance of transnational alliance cooperation in building integrated defense industrial
capabilities (Department of Defense, 2023). The strategy demonstrates profound and
practical recognition that the US cannot unilaterally maintain and develop a DIB with
sufficient capacity and scale to effectively respond to the increasingly complex global
security challenge landscape of the future. Exemplary multilateral cooperation initiatives
such as AUKUS and the “friend-shoring” model in building defense supply chains have
opened strategic opportunities for technology transfer and substantive cooperation
enhancement with strategic allied nations (Tabler, 2024). In particular, the AUKUS treaty
with its two main pillars-nuclear submarine development and advanced defense
technology cooperation-represents a breakthrough approach in sharing sensitive defense
technologies with trusted partners. NDIS therefore plays a pivotal role in the overall
foreign policy strategy of President Joe Biden’s administration, aimed at rebuilding
strategic trust and strengthening the global alliance network after the “America First”
period under President Trump-a policy that significantly diminished trust and cohesion
between the US and its traditional partners. This international cooperation aspect not
only helps reposition the global leadership role of the US but also creates practical
mechanisms for sharing the burden of technology development and defense production,
while enhancing the flexibility and resilience of the global defense supply chain against
geopolitical and economic shocks. The development of this defense industrial alliance
network also creates an important strategic competitive advantage for the US and its
partners in technological and economic competition with rival nations such as China and
Russia.
Third, balanced approach in optimizing public-private partnerships: NDIS has
demonstrated a multidimensional and balanced approach by acknowledging that the
federal government cannot unilaterally address complex challenges in the defense sector,
but requires synchronized mobilization and maximization of innovation potential and
expertise from the private sector (Department of Defense, 2023). This strategy proposes
building comprehensive public-private partnership models, not limited to financial
investment but extending to advanced scientific research and breakthrough technology
development. This multi-layered approach reflects deep and comprehensive awareness
that the radical restructuring of the defense industry requires synchronized, active, and
continuous coordination of both sectors within a long-term strategic framework. Private
businesses and corporations possess continuously updated specialized knowledge
repositories, rich practical experience, and diverse resources essential for effectively and
sustainably realizing NDIS’s ambitious objectives (Sax, 2024). This multidimensional
cooperation model allows for optimal synthesis and enhancement between the
government’s policy planning, strategic direction, and stable funding provision roles with
the private sector’s inherent continuous innovation capability, optimal operational
efficiency, and strong competitive drive (Howard, 2024). Particularly, NDIS has
developed a balanced analytical framework in identifying priority areas for public-private
cooperation, including: (a) Development of critical technologies such as artificial
intelligence, advanced microelectronics, and new energy sources; (b) Expansion of
production capacity in strategic areas such as precision ammunition, anti-aircraft
missiles, and unmanned systems; (c) Strengthening the resilience of the defense supply
chain; and (d) Developing high-quality human resources with specific skills necessary for
the modern defense industry. On this basis, this systematic strategic linkage will create
JANUS.NET, e-journal of International Relations
e-ISSN: 1647-7251
VOL. 16, Nº. 2
November 2025-April 2026, pp. 137-156
Rebuilding the “Arsenal Of Democracy”: A Strategic Assessment of the United States National
Defense Industrial Strategy
Tran Bach Hieu, Le Hoang Kiet, Tran Xuan Hiep
150
powerful synergistic effects, thereby accelerating the comprehensive modernization
process and significantly enhancing the competitiveness of the defense industry in an
increasingly complex and challenging global geopolitical context.
Fourth, specific and feasible implementation plan: NDIS does not stop at identifying
abstract strategic objectives and mere theory but has taken an important breakthrough
step with DoD officially announcing a detailed comprehensive implementation plan on
October 29, 2024, including a system of sequential, specific, interconnected deployment
steps and quantitative efficiency evaluation indicators for each phase (US Department of
Defense, 2024c). This strategic move demonstrates DoD’s strong, clear, and consistent
commitment to comprehensively recovering and synchronously enhancing the defense
industrial capabilities of the US and allied nations in the face of increasing and complex
challenges from the close Russia-China cooperation on a global scale. Undersecretary of
Defense for Acquisition and Sustainment William LaPlante has convincingly affirmed:
“The announcement of the National Defense Industrial Strategy marks a historic and
important milestone in the multifaceted effort to systematically scale up and significantly
enhance the resilience and resistance of the DIB in all situations” (Perez, 2024). This
detailed and comprehensive implementation plan will create a solid foundation for in-
depth and multidimensional analysis of potential weaknesses in complex supply chains,
strongly reinforcing cybersecurity systems throughout the defense industry sector, while
establishing and perfecting a strategic reserve system for critical materials and resources
using a scientific, systematic, and sustainable approach.
b) Limitations of NDIS
First, challenges regarding the sustainability of financial resources and budget allocation
priorities: The successful implementation of NDIS requires large-scale and continuous
investment over many years in both financial resources and high-quality human capital.
However, careful analysis reveals that the current strategic framework has not yet
established a detailed, comprehensive financial plan to ensure the necessary sustainable
funding, especially in the context of intense competition with many other spending
priorities in the federal budget structure. Maintaining a stable, adequately scaled, and
continuous funding stream across multiple budget cycles will be a systemic challenge for
the DoD. According to information from Laura Taylor-Kale: “The recently signed and
passed defense appropriation for fiscal year 2024 as well as the President’s budget
request for fiscal year 2025 includes billions of dollars for investment in supply chains
including ammunition, maritime strike capabilities, submarine industrial base
improvements and shipyards as well as workforce development initiatives” (US
Department of Defense, 2024b). This statement confirms that NDIS has been financially
secured for the 2024-2025 budget cycle; however, the sustainability of the budget
stream in subsequent phases remains a significant open question for the DoD,
particularly as pressure from budget constraints increases due to competition from
increasingly diverse and urgent domestic development priorities. Although details related
to specific budget allocation plans may not be widely disclosed due to the sensitive nature
of defense and national security, the absence of a clear long-term financial framework
remains a significant structural weakness in the overall architecture of NDIS.
JANUS.NET, e-journal of International Relations
e-ISSN: 1647-7251
VOL. 16, Nº. 2
November 2025-April 2026, pp. 137-156
Rebuilding the “Arsenal Of Democracy”: A Strategic Assessment of the United States National
Defense Industrial Strategy
Tran Bach Hieu, Le Hoang Kiet, Tran Xuan Hiep
151
Second, internal conflict between “Buy American” protectionist policies and the goal of
enhancing international cooperation: Although NDIS sets forth ambitions to promote
extensive international cooperation in the defense industry, this strategy faces significant
inherent barriers from “Buy American” protectionist policies-which prioritize domestic
sources-and the stringent regulatory system for controlling exports of sensitive military
technology. NDIS has acknowledged the challenges arising from complex US export
control mechanisms, including the International Traffic in Arms Regulations and Export
Administration Regulations (National Defense Transportation Association, 2024).
However, the perspective reflected in NDIS that “this acknowledgment is insufficient to
neutralize the negative impact on strategic cooperation efforts with international allies
and partners” (National Defense Transportation Association, 2024) still fails to address
the fundamental issue. In reality, the parallel existence of these two opposing policy
systems creates genuine barriers to the ability to share and transfer technology with
foreign partners-a key factor in building effective collective defense capabilities. The
notable lack of interest from EU allies, reflected through limited media coverage and
discussion about NDIS in mainstream European media channels, is clear evidence of the
negative impact of these protectionist policies on the potential for substantive
international cooperation (Taylor, 2024). Although NDIS has noted these challenges, the
strategic document has not yet proposed sufficiently strong and feasible solutions to
overcome existing legal and institutional barriers, creating a core weakness in the overall
structure of the strategy.
Third, systemic challenges related to competitiveness and technology innovation
transfer: NDIS has correctly identified structural challenges related to limited competition
in the defense industry ecosystem and the “valley of death” phenomenon in the transition
process from research to practical application for innovative technologies (Levantovscaia,
2024). The lack of substantive competition in the defense industry constitutes a structural
barrier to innovation processes and economic efficiency. This limited competitive
environment leads to the risk of forming monopolistic entities or those with few
competitors, thereby creating negative consequences such as high costs, inconsistent
product quality, and the absence of endogenous motivation for continuous improvement.
Simultaneously, the “valley of death” phenomenon accurately describes the situation
where advanced technologies encounter difficulties in bridging the gap between the
experimental research phase and large-scale deployment, primarily due to a lack of
effective commercialization mechanisms and necessary financial investment during this
critical transition phase. NDIS needs to propose more breakthrough and comprehensive
solutions to foster a healthy competitive environment and narrow the “valley of death”,
possibly through mechanisms such as encouraging supplier structure diversification or
establishing targeted investment funds to support the deployment process of innovative
technologies from laboratory to battlefield. If these structural challenges are not
systematically addressed, the risk of increasing innovation stagnation, low productivity,
and inefficient resource allocation will become increasingly serious. Unfortunately, the
current version of the strategy has not yet proposed specific, strong, and feasible
solutions to thoroughly address these core issues.
Fourth, lack of comparative strategic analysis with international competitors: An
important weakness in the structure of NDIS is its excessive focus on building and
developing US domestic defense industrial capabilities while significantly lacking strategic
JANUS.NET, e-journal of International Relations
e-ISSN: 1647-7251
VOL. 16, Nº. 2
November 2025-April 2026, pp. 137-156
Rebuilding the “Arsenal Of Democracy”: A Strategic Assessment of the United States National
Defense Industrial Strategy
Tran Bach Hieu, Le Hoang Kiet, Tran Xuan Hiep
152
comparative analyses with potential adversary nations such as China, Russia, North
Korea, Iran, and other competitor states (Handfield, 2024). In the contemporary
geopolitical context, US rival powers, especially China and Russia, are implementing
systematic efforts to significantly enhance their defense industrial capabilities. The
defense industrial development strategies of these countries, along with investment
trends, technological development trajectories, access to strategic material resources,
and global markets, will have direct and profound influences on the strategic competitive
environment that the US will face in the medium and long-term future. Without a
comprehensive comparative analysis and in-depth assessment of developmental
dynamics of competing rivals, NDIS will face significant difficulties in ensuring that its
priorities and action plans are built on accurately identifying the competitive challenge
context that the US needs to overcome. Adding strategic analyses of the capabilities and
defense industrial strategies of potential adversary nations would help NDIS improve the
foundation for making appropriate strategic decisions to maintain competitive advantage,
such as identifying priorities for developing key technological areas, strengthening
partnerships with specific allies, or making targeted investments in strategic production
capabilities. This comparative analysis becomes even more urgent in the context where
the US needs to ensure its defense industrial system maintains a superior position
compared to competitors to preserve its leading role in global defense.
c) Overall Assessment of NDIS
The US NDIS represents an important strategic advancement in efforts to
comprehensively restructure and modernize the defense industry. Developed in the
context of increasingly complex and multidimensional geopolitical challenges, NDIS’s
outstanding advantage is demonstrated through its systematic, comprehensive, and
multi-layered approach, going beyond short-term tactical vision to build a sustainable,
flexible, and highly adaptable defense industrial ecosystem in the face of global security
environment fluctuations. The most notable aspect of NDIS is the harmonious and
balanced combination between long-term strategic vision and specific implementation
steps that are highly feasible in the short term. The strategy not only provides a
theoretical framework for guidance but also delivers a detailed action roadmap with 25
specific activity areas systematically distributed across four main strategic pillars. In
particular, NDIS demonstrates profound strategic thinking by recognizing that US’s future
defense strength depends closely on the ability to mobilize and optimize comprehensive
resources from both public and private sectors while building a network of sustainable
and reliable alliance relationships on a global scale.
However, through comprehensive analysis, the US NDIS faces four core structural
challenges: (a) The complex problem of ensuring financial resources and long-term
budget sustainability; (b) Internal conflict between domestic defense industry
protectionist policies and the objective requirement for extensive international
cooperation; (c) Systemic barriers to promoting healthy competition and overcoming the
“valley of death” in the innovation technology transfer process; and (d) Significant
deficiency in comparative strategic analysis with key international competitors. If not
addressed systematically, comprehensively, and thoroughly, these structural limitations
could significantly diminish the feasibility and practical effectiveness of NDIS in its
JANUS.NET, e-journal of International Relations
e-ISSN: 1647-7251
VOL. 16, Nº. 2
November 2025-April 2026, pp. 137-156
Rebuilding the “Arsenal Of Democracy”: A Strategic Assessment of the United States National
Defense Industrial Strategy
Tran Bach Hieu, Le Hoang Kiet, Tran Xuan Hiep
153
mission to ensure national security and maintain the US’ leading defense technology
position in the context of global geopolitical competition that is increasingly intense in
magnitude and complex in nature. In the medium and long-term vision, the
comprehensive success of NDIS will depend greatly on the ability to maintain political
commitment throughout US presidential terms (a significant challenge due to the self-
adjusting mechanism of defense policy continuously reflecting differences in strategic
thinking between presidential administrations), as well as the ability to adapt flexibly and
promptly to rapid and unpredictable fluctuations in regional and global security
environments. NDIS is not simply an ordinary defense strategy but essentially a large-
scale restructuring project with a long-term vision, requiring synchronized, harmonious,
and effective coordination between government agencies, the private business sector,
and the international partner network to realize the strategic vision of a strong US DIB
with sufficient capacity to comprehensively respond to the diverse and complex
challenges of the 21st century.
Conclusion
NDIS marks a pivotal turning point in the US’ geostrategic response to multidimensional
security challenges within an increasingly unstable international order. This
comprehensive analysis reveals the NDIS as a sophisticated policy framework that
transcends conventional defense planning by establishing a cohesive quadrilateral
structure comprising four interrelated pillars: strengthening supply chain resilience,
developing human capital, enhancing procurement system efficiency, and expanding
international cooperation capabilities. The hallmark of this strategy lies in its systematic
integration of diverse policy dimensions into a unified strategic ecosystem designed to
effectively counter emerging threats from US’s strategic competitors and their allied
networks. However, the NDIS also faces significant structural limitations that may
undermine its long-term effectiveness. These include constraints on fiscal sustainability,
inherent tensions between protectionist inclinations and the imperatives of international
collaboration, barriers to innovation diffusion, and an insufficiently robust comparative
assessment of adversarial capabilities. These limitations constitute core vulnerabilities
that necessitate systematic remediation to ensure strategic coherence and operational
feasibility.
The NDIS reflects a strategic recognition by the US that maintaining technological
superiority in an evolving multipolar security environment requires the synchronized
mobilization of both public and private sector resources within a consistent strategic
framework. As geopolitical competition among great powers intensifies, the success of
the NDIS depends on sustained political commitment across successive administrations,
agile adaptation to dynamic threat landscapes, and effective navigation of complex
domestic and international constraints. Thus, the strategy is not merely a recalibration
of defense industrial policy, but a comprehensive restructuring of the US’ strategic
posture in response to profound transformations in the global security architecture. In
essence, the NDIS represents a deliberate effort to revitalize the “arsenal of democracy”
- the foundation of US strength that proved decisive in the world wars and the Cold War.
This strategy is aimed not only at safeguarding US hegemonic primacy but also at
unlocking new opportunities and confronting emerging challenges in the global defense
JANUS.NET, e-journal of International Relations
e-ISSN: 1647-7251
VOL. 16, Nº. 2
November 2025-April 2026, pp. 137-156
Rebuilding the “Arsenal Of Democracy”: A Strategic Assessment of the United States National
Defense Industrial Strategy
Tran Bach Hieu, Le Hoang Kiet, Tran Xuan Hiep
154
technology domain. By examining the core themes of the NDIS in this study, national
security policymakers can draw critical insights to formulate adaptive strategies,
reinforce defense capabilities, and contribute to regional and global stability and
sustainable development.
References
Alert, B. C. (2024). Department of Defense National Defense Industrial Strategy
Overview. https://www.bhfs.com/insights/alerts-articles/2024/department-of-defense-
national-defense-industrial-strategy-overview
American Economic Association (2024). DoD Releases First National Defense Industrial
Strategy (1.11.24). https://www.aeaweb.org/forum/4253/dod-releases-first-national-
defense-industrial-strategy-11
Congressional Research Service (2024). Emerging Military Technologies: Background and
Issues for Congress. https://sgp.fas.org/crs/natsec/R46458.pdf
Cook, C. (2024). Understanding the Contributions of the New National Defense Industrial
Strategy. https://www.csis.org/analysis/understanding-contributions-new-national-
defense-industrial-strategy
Department of Defense (2023). National Defense Industrial Strategy 2023.
https://www.businessdefense.gov/docs/ndis/2023-NDIS.pdf
Finacial Times (2024). The revival of the defence industry.
https://www.ft.com/content/8d21287f-d4cc-4b72-9872-9e3d766d56de
Gunter, J., & Legarda, H. (2024). China’s arms industry is increasingly global, but don’t
expect it to supplant NATO’s counterparts any time soon.
https://merics.org/en/tracker/chinas-arms-industry-increasingly-global-dont-expect-it-
supplant-natos-counterparts-any
Hamzawy, A. (2025). Ending the New Wars of Attrition: Opportunities for Collective
Regional Security in the Middle East.
https://carnegieendowment.org/research/2025/03/ending-the-new-wars-of-attrition-
opportunities-for-collective-regional-security-in-the-middle-east?lang=en
Handfield, R. (2024). Comparing the 2023 National Defense Industrial Strategy (NDIS):
A Critique and Comparison to Supply Chain Immunity. https://scm.ncsu.edu/scm-
articles/article/comparing-the-2023-national-defense-industrial-strategy-ndis-a-
critique-and-comparison-to-supply-chain-immunity
Howard, T. W. (2024). What Contractors Need to Know About DoD’s National Defense
Industrial Strategy. https://www.wiley.law/alert-What-Contractors-Need-to-Know-
About-DoDs-National-Defense-Industrial-Strategy
Indo - Pacific Defense Forum (2024). Chiến lược công nghiệp quốc phòng mới kêu gọi sự
hợp tác giữa Mỹ và các đối tác đồng minh [New defense industrial strategy calls for
cooperation between the US and allied partners].
https://ipdefenseforum.com/vi/2024/02/chien-luoc-cong-nghiep-quoc-phong-moi-keu-
goi-su-hop-tac-giua-hoa-ky-va-cac-doi-tac-dong-minh/
JANUS.NET, e-journal of International Relations
e-ISSN: 1647-7251
VOL. 16, Nº. 2
November 2025-April 2026, pp. 137-156
Rebuilding the “Arsenal Of Democracy”: A Strategic Assessment of the United States National
Defense Industrial Strategy
Tran Bach Hieu, Le Hoang Kiet, Tran Xuan Hiep
155
Industrial Base Policy (2024). The National Defense Industrial Strategy (NDIS).
https://www.businessdefense.gov/NDIS.html
Kapur, S. (2025). Trump’s budget proposes slashing health, education and clean energy
programs while talking up bigger military. https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/trump-
administration/trumps-budget-proposes-slashing-health-education-clean-energy-
programs-rcna204435
Kiet, L. H. & Hiep, T. X. (Eds.). (2025). Navigating Complex Geopolitical Landscapes
Amidst Conflict. New York: IGI Global. https://doi.org/10.4018/979-8-3693-8674-3
Kiet, L. H., Binh, N. T., & Hiep, T. X. (2024). From Arroyo to Duterte: Two Decades of
Philippines’ Foreign Policy Navigation between the US and China. Przegląd Strategiczny,
17, 133–150. https://doi.org/10.14746/ps.2024.1.9
Kiet, L. H., Binh, N. T., & Hiep, T. X. (2025). From border conflicts to maritime
competition: driving forces behind the power rivalry between India and China in the
Indian Ocean region. Australian Journal of Maritime & Ocean Affairs, 1–25.
https://doi.org/10.1080/18366503.2025.2492438
Levantovscaia, K. (2024). Reading between the lines of the new US National Defense
Industrial Strategy. https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/new-atlanticist/reading-
between-the-lines-of-the-new-us-national-defense-industrial-strategy/
Levy, C., & Singhal, S. (2025). Navigating the new geopolitical uncertainty.
https://www.mckinsey.com/capabilities/geopolitics/our-insights/navigating-the-new-
geopolitical-uncertainty
LMI (n.d.). Project Spotlight: DoD SMART Scholarship-for-Service Program.
https://lmisolutions.com/blog/project-spotlight-dod-smart-scholarship-service-program
More House. (2024). U.S. Department of Defense - Summer Fellowship for All Majors.
https://careerdevelopment.morehouse.edu/blog/2024/01/16/u-s-department-of-
defense-summer-fellowship-for-all-majors/
National Defense Transportation Association (2024). The National Defense Industrial
Strategy: Enabling a Modern Defense Industrial Ecosystem.
https://www.ndtahq.com/the-national-defense-industrial-strategy-enabling-a-modern-
defense-industrial-ecosystem/
Perez, L. (2024). DoD Unveils NDIS Implementation Plan.
https://www.meritalk.com/articles/dod-unveils-ndis-implementation-plan/
Ribeiro, A. (2024). DoD releases NDIS document to coordinate and prioritize actions for
modernized defense industrial ecosystem. https://industrialcyber.co/critical-
infrastructure/dod-releases-ndis-document-to-coordinate-and-prioritize-actions-for-
modernized-defense-industrial-ecosystem/
Sax, C. (2024). Implementation Essential for Industrial Strategy.
https://www.nationaldefensemagazine.org/articles/2024/2/21/implementation-
essential-for-industrial-strategy
JANUS.NET, e-journal of International Relations
e-ISSN: 1647-7251
VOL. 16, Nº. 2
November 2025-April 2026, pp. 137-156
Rebuilding the “Arsenal Of Democracy”: A Strategic Assessment of the United States National
Defense Industrial Strategy
Tran Bach Hieu, Le Hoang Kiet, Tran Xuan Hiep
156
Shinego, W. (2025). DoD talent chief aims to reform hiring to attract Gen Z.
https://www.afaccessionscenter.af.mil/News/Article-Display/Article/4034564/dod-
talent-chief-aims-to-reform-hiring-to-attract-gen-z/
Tabler, A. (2024). Inaugural National Defense Industrial Strategy Emphasizes
Cooperation Among Partner – Allies. https://www.jdsupra.com/legalnews/inaugural-
national-defense-industrial-6567888/
Taylor, T. (2024). The US National Defense Industrial Strategy: No Shortage of Ambition.
https://www.rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/commentary/us-national-
defense-industrial-strategy-no-shortage-ambition
US Department of Defense (2022). National Defense Strategy 2022.
https://media.defense.gov/2022/Oct/27/2003103845/-1/-1/1/2022-NATIONAL-
DEFENSE-STRATEGY-NPR-MDR.PDF
US Department of Defense (2024a). DoD Releases First Defense Industrial Strategy.
https://www.defense.gov/News/News-Stories/Article/Article/3644527/dod-releases-
first-defense-industrial-strategy/
US Department of Defense (2024b). DoD Official: Defense Industrial Strategy Already
Making Headway in Maritime Space. https://www.defense.gov/News/News-
Stories/Article/Article/3739030/dod-official-defense-industrial-strategy-already-
making-headway-in-maritime-spa/
US Department of Defense (2024c). DoD Releases National Defense Industrial Strategy
Implementation Plan.
https://www.defense.gov/News/Releases/Release/Article/3948653/dod-releases-
national-defense-industrial-strategy-implementation-plan/
US Government Accountability Office (2024). Weapon Systems Annual Assessment.
https://www.gao.gov/assets/gao-24-106831.pdf
Vincent, B. (2022). DOD commits millions to expand Purdue-led program aimed at
growing microelectronics workforce. https://defensescoop.com/2022/09/27/dod-
commits-millions-to-expand-purdue-led-program-aimed-at-growing-microelectronics-
workforce/
Vincent, B. (2024). Tech, cyber prioritized in DoD’s new industrial base strategy.
https://defensescoop.com/2024/01/11/ndis-tech-cyber-prioritized-dod-industrial-base-
strategy/
White House (2025). Fact Sheet: President Donald J. Trump Reforms Foreign Defense
Sales to Improve Speed and Accountability. https://www.whitehouse.gov/fact-
sheets/2025/04/fact-sheet-president-donald-j-trump-reforms-foreign-defense-sales-to-
improve-speed-and-accountability/
Wong, J. P., Younossi, O., Lacoste, C. K., Anton, P. S., Vick, A. J., Weichenberg, G., &
Whitmore, T. (2024). Improving Defense Acquisition.
https://www.rand.org/content/dam/rand/pubs/research_reports/RRA1600/RRA1670-
1/RAND_RRA1670-1.pdf
OBSERVARE
Universidade Autónoma de Lisboa
e-ISSN: 1647-7251
VOL. 16, Nº. 2
November 2025-April 2026
157
SECURING THE SELF: ONTOLOGICAL SECURITY AND ENERGY RELATIONS IN
EU-CENTRAL ASIA ENGAGEMENT AFTER UKRAINE
MARIA RAQUEL FREIRE
rfreire@fe.uc.pt
PhD in International Relations, she is researcher at the Centre for Social Studies – CES
(Portugal), and Full Professor of International Relations at the Faculty of Economics of the
University of Coimbra (FEUC), in Portugal. She is also Visiting Professor in the Post-Graduate
Programme in International Relations, Federal University of Santa Catarina, Brazil. She is an
elected member of the Scientific Council at FEUC and a member of FEUC’s Advisory Board. Her
research interests focus on peace studies, particularly peacekeeping and peacebuilding; foreign
policy, international security, European Union and Eurasia. She was director of the Doctoral
Programme in International Politics and Conflict Resolution, CES|FEUC (2015-2019); Coordinator
of the Department and Undergraduate Studies in International Relations at FEUC (2017-2019);
elected member of the FEUC Pedagogical Council (2017-2019), and of FEUC Scientific Council
(2013-2015). She was Vice-President of the Portuguese Political Science Association (2012-2014)
and Chairman of the Fiscal Board of the same Association (2014-2016); member of the Executive
Board of the European International Studies Association (EISA); and member of the Professional
Development Committee of the International Studies Association (2015-2017). She was also
President of the Assembly of FEUC (2019-2024), Deputy Dean of the Faculty of Economics of the
University of Coimbra (2014-2015) and member of the Board of Directors of the Centre for Social
Studies (2008-2010). She was a researcher and/or visiting professor at Georgetown University,
USA; University of Osaka, Japan; University of San Diego, USA; or Brussels School of
International Studies (BSIS), University of Kent, Brussels. In 2019, she was awarded the
“Science Prize” by FEUC. She has reviewed research projects for the Portuguese Foundation for
Science and Technology (FCT), Marie Skłodowska-Curie Individual Fellowships (European
Commission), COST Actions, European Science Foundation, among other. She was a member of
the Editorial Board of Revista Crítica de Ciências Sociais at CES (2019-2024), as well as of other
journals, such as Comillas Journal of International Relations, Nação e Defesa, or Global Society.
She was the Coordinator of the Jean Monnet Centre of Excellence PRONE, and held a Jean
Monnet Chair, at the University of Coimbra.
KOMRON FAYZULLOEV
komr8332@gmail.com
He is Assistant of the department of International Relations at Tajik National University
(Tajikistan). He is graduated Tajik National University, faculty of International Relations and have
been the master in a world politics of humanitarianly social faculty of the Peoples Friendship
University of Russia. Research Center “Sharq” (Orient), Tajik National University, Tajikistan.
Abstract
This article analyses energy relations between the European Union (EU) and Central Asian
countries through the lens of ontological security, seeking to understand how identity
narratives shape cooperation beyond material interests. Following Russia’s invasion of
Ukraine, the EU perception of ontological insecurity increased with the collapse of established
energy interdependence routines, prompting a deepening of the engagement with Central
Asia to reconstruct its biographical narrative. For Central Asian states, this partnership
contributes to their post-Soviet identity construction as sovereign actors. The analysis shows
how Central Asian states leverage their distinct energy profiles to craft separate security
narratives, while engaging the EU as part of their diversification strategies, demonstrating
JANUS.NET, e-journal of International Relations
e-ISSN: 1647-7251
VOL. 16, Nº. 2
November 2025-April 2026, pp. 157-179
Securing the Self: Ontological Security and Energy Relations in EU-Central Asia Engagement
after Ukraine
Maria Raquel Freire, Komron Fayzulloev
158
that sustainable cooperation depends on integrating partnerships into coherent identities amid
geopolitical disruption and energy transition challenges.
Keywords
Central Asia, European Union, Energy, Ontological Security, Identity.
Resumo
Este artigo analisa as relações energéticas entre a União Europeia (UE) e os países da Ásia
Central através da lente da segurança ontológica, procurando compreender como as
narrativas identitárias moldam a cooperação para além dos interesses materiais. Após a
invasão da Ucrânia pela Rússia, a perceção da UE de insegurança ontológica aumentou com
o colapso das rotinas estabelecidas de interdependência energética, levando a um
aprofundamento do envolvimento com a Ásia Central para reconstruir a sua narrativa
biográfica. Para os Estados da Ásia Central, esta parceria contribui para a construção da sua
identidade pós-soviética como atores soberanos. A análise mostra como os Estados da Ásia
Central aproveitam os seus perfis energéticos distintos para criar narrativas de segurança
separadas, ao mesmo tempo que envolvem a UE como parte das suas estratégias de
diversificação, demonstrando que a cooperação sustentável depende da integração de
parcerias em identidades coerentes em meio a perturbações geopolíticas e desafios de
transição energética.
Palavras-chave
Ásia Central, União Europeia, Energia, Segurança Ontológica, Identidade.
How to cite this article
Freire, Maria Raquel & Fayzulloev, Komron (2025). Securing the Self: Ontological Security and
Energy Relations in EU-Central Asia Engagement after Ukraine. Janus.net, e-journal of international
relations. VOL. 16, Nº. 2, November 2025-April 2026, pp. 157-179. DOI
https://doi.org/10.26619/1647-7251.16.2.9
Article submitted on 14th July 2025 and accepted for publication on 5th September 2025.
JANUS.NET, e-journal of International Relations
e-ISSN: 1647-7251
VOL. 16, Nº. 2
November 2025-April 2026, pp. 157-179
Securing the Self: Ontological Security and Energy Relations in EU-Central Asia Engagement
after Ukraine
Maria Raquel Freire, Komron Fayzulloev
159
SECURING THE SELF: ONTOLOGICAL SECURITY AND ENERGY
RELATIONS IN EU-CENTRAL ASIA ENGAGEMENT AFTER UKRAINE
1
MARIA RAQUEL FREIRE
KOMRON FAYZULLOEV
Introduction
The current context of increasing polarisation and dissension in international affairs, with
multiple crisis affecting the European Union (EU)’s role and place, have rendered energy
security a central element in self-perceptions of (in)security. The Russian full-scale
invasion of Ukraine on 24 February 2022 accelerated the perception of threat coming
from this big neighbour and underlined the central role of energy security in the EU
agenda. Energy is one of the most pressing issues in modern international relations,
embedding economic and political power in security frameworks. Side-by-side fossil fuels,
hydroelectric or renewable energy complexes form the basis of the economy of a number
of countries, with national security closely interlinked to global energy security
(Fayzulloev, 2018). The Central Asian region emerges here as a fundamental player,
having enormous energy resources and potentiating beneficial cooperation with the EU.
The 2019 new EU Strategy to Central Asia, titled “New Opportunities for a Stronger
Partnership” (European Parliament and Council, 2019), seeks to update relations
between the EU and the Central Asian countries, by designing a relation that is adjustable
and targeted, pragmatic and resilient. The document is structured around three
‘interconnected and mutually reinforcing priorities’: ‘partnering for resilience’, ‘partnering
for prosperity’ and ‘working better together’, highlighting “the security of energy supply
and diversification of suppliers, sources and routes of the EU, including assessing the
possibility to build the Trans-Caspian Pipeline” as a key goal.
Underlining the EU’s approach is a security driven agenda, that we argue is pushed by
ontological insecurity in the framing of Russia as a threat. The EU’s ontological insecurity,
particularly in the energy sector here analysed, is rebalanced in the geopolitical relevance
of Central Asia given “its share in EU energy imports and the market potential of eighty
million inhabitants, as well as the EU’s interests in regional security” (European
Parliament and Council, 2019: p. 1). By establishing new energy partnerships in Central
Asia, the EU is attempting to rebuild its disrupted biographical narrative of energy
security and autonomy. The Russian invasion of Ukraine fundamentally challenged the
EU’s long-established narrative of peaceful energy interdependence with Russia, creating
profound anxiety about both material energy supplies and the EU’s self-identity as a
secure and autonomous actor. EU’s further engagement with Central Asia is pursued not
just for material energy resources, but also to reframe a coherent identity narrative
1
The authors acknowledge support from a Marie Curie Staff Exchange (grant acronym: CARSI, no: 101086415).
JANUS.NET, e-journal of International Relations
e-ISSN: 1647-7251
VOL. 16, Nº. 2
November 2025-April 2026, pp. 157-179
Securing the Self: Ontological Security and Energy Relations in EU-Central Asia Engagement
after Ukraine
Maria Raquel Freire, Komron Fayzulloev
160
where the EU regains ontological security mainly through reinforced partnerships and
diversification of supply routes.
The paper starts by mapping the ontological security framework and how energy security
plays out high in the agenda of both the EU and Central Asian countries. Exploring the
new EU Strategy and developments in relations of the EU with Central Asia, and how the
EU has been perceived by these actors, is key to unpack processes of security building
and how these allow to overcome threat perceptions and anxiety. To this effect, the
article looks at concrete energy projects and the political narratives informing these. The
article concludes that the strengthening of relations with Central Asian states has been
contributing to EU’s ontological security in face of Russia’s threat, while it has also been
providing space for Central Asian states agency in energy discussions.
Geopolitics, normative competition, and energy security in regional
relations
The literature on the EU’s role in Central Asia reveals complex debates about the EU’s
regional actorness, normative influence, and positioning within a contested geopolitical
environment. Central Asia represents a particularly challenging space for EU foreign
policy, with the EU seeking to establish itself as a significant player in a region where
other major powers exercise considerable influence. As Kavalski and Cho (2018: 54)
mention, “Central Asia barely registered on the radar of the external relations of the EU
during the 1990s”, with the region remaining largely peripheral to EU interests. A
significant turning point came following the September 11, 2001 attacks in the United
States, when Central Asia gained greater geostrategic significance. This eventually led to
the EU’s first comprehensive regional strategy in 2007, later updated in 2019 (Fawn,
2021). Despite these strategic initiatives, EU’s effectiveness in the region has been
questioned. For example, Vasa (2020: p. 121) argues that the EU “does not have a clear,
real strategy towards the Central Asian region” and advances it “will lose in the game of
great and middle powers for influence and control” (Vasa, 2000: p. 128). Similarly,
Kavalski and Cho (2018: p. 63) suggest that “the cultural instincts of the EU’s normative
power entrap its agency in Central Asia and Afghanistan and make it difficult for Brussels
to develop contextual approaches to the region”. In a similar vein, Laumulin (2019)
describes the EU’s strategy for Central Asia as “incomplete”, noting that the EU’s visibility
in the region remains limited despite its diplomatic presence and development assistance
programmes.
Spaiser (2015) offers a more nuanced assessment, characterising the EU as a “minor but
not marginal” security actor in Central Asia. While acknowledging that the EU lacks the
security capacities of Russia and China, the author argues it has successfully developed
a role on “‘niche’ areas of security which are not occupied by the other actors and where
it can make a difference. Second, it successfully draws a picture of itself being an ‘expert’
without any geopolitical ambitions, and third, an intense discourse of ‘far neighbourhood’
helps to create legitimacy and proximity in its interaction with Central Asian leaders”
(Spaiser, 2015: p. 97). The EU’s approach has traditionally emphasised values such as
democracy, human rights, and rule of law (Fawn, 2021). However, as Kobilov (2021, p.
144) points out, “The New Strategy made consequential amendments taking account of
JANUS.NET, e-journal of International Relations
e-ISSN: 1647-7251
VOL. 16, Nº. 2
November 2025-April 2026, pp. 157-179
Securing the Self: Ontological Security and Energy Relations in EU-Central Asia Engagement
after Ukraine
Maria Raquel Freire, Komron Fayzulloev
161
these specific moments, providing a more balanced policy between values and interests
of the EU”. This suggests a recognition that an exclusively values-based approach may
limit effectiveness in a region where authoritarian governance remains prevalent.
Furthering the normative dimension of the EU’s security, von Hauff (2019: p. 195) looks
at how the “liberally informed EU” and the “politically distinctly illiberal China” interact in
Central Asia, arguing that despite normative divergence, both actors ultimately
contribute to regional security, albeit through different approaches. This creates a
potential for “normative broad-mindedness” (von Hauff, 2019: p. 204) that could serve
as a foundation for future cooperation.
The competitive aspect of EU engagement in Central Asia is noted by Fatima and Zafar
(2014: p. 631), since the “involved actors can be identified as regional and trans-regional
players”, with Russia, China, and the United States being particularly influential. Russia
maintains strong political and security ties through organisations like the Collective
Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) and the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU), while
China has increased its economic presence through initiatives like the Belt and Road
Initiative (BRI) (Vasa, 2020; Fatima & Zafar, 2014). In this complex setting, energy
cooperation represents a crucial dimension of EU-Central Asia relations, with multiple
competing perspectives regarding regional influence, geopolitical strategy, and security
implications. Fernandes and Simão (2010: p. 104) frame energy relations primarily as
geopolitical competition, arguing that Russia and the EU are engaged in a rivalry for
influence over Central Asia’s energy sector. This competition, they contend, extends
beyond mere economic interests to encompass broader geopolitical contestation.
Differently, Delcour (2011: p. 98) identifies the strengthening of energy cooperation as
one of three decisive factors determining the sustainability of the EU’s political
engagement in Central Asia. She connects this strategic pivot to the 2006 Russia-Ukraine
energy crisis, which led the EU to seek for energy diversification by looking for alternative
sources in Central Asia and the Caucasus.
Regional scholars offer alternative perspectives focused on cooperation rather than
competition. Komron Rahimov (2024) advocates for strategic partnerships among
Central Asian countries to ensure energy security, emphasising adaptation to global
trends and environmental considerations. This approach envisions regional integration as
a mechanism to preserve and enhance Central Asia’s energy potential while addressing
shared challenges. One of the central factors highlighted regarding energy security is the
integration of Central Asia into global energy chains, which requires the active
participation of countries in multilateral forums and agreements promoting joint
infrastructure development and policy coordination. Amineh and Crijns-Graus (2018)
highlight energy security as a crucial factor in the EU strategy, noting the EU’s
dependence on external energy supplies and the strategic importance of Central Asian
energy resources, as complementary. Movkebaeva (2015) identifies a strategic shift in
the EU’s approach, characterised by intensified political engagement and increased
financial investment, with the EU almost doubling the budget allocated to the region,
suggesting the EU is moving beyond narrowly defined energy interests toward more
comprehensive regional partnerships. Issova & Saryyeva (2015) also articulate a position
of mutual benefit, arguing that the EU and Central Asia share “paramount interest in
enhancing energy security as an important aspect of global security”, emphasising
diversification of export routes, supply structures, and energy sources as serving
JANUS.NET, e-journal of International Relations
e-ISSN: 1647-7251
VOL. 16, Nº. 2
November 2025-April 2026, pp. 157-179
Securing the Self: Ontological Security and Energy Relations in EU-Central Asia Engagement
after Ukraine
Maria Raquel Freire, Komron Fayzulloev
162
common interests. The authors expand the energy security discussion beyond
conventional fossil fuels to include water management and hydropower as crucial
elements for regional stability in Central Asia and beyond, including Afghanistan and
Pakistan. This same line of reasoning is highlighted by Basirov (2017) who argues that
besides seeking to increase oil and gas imports from Central Asian countries, the EU has
been focusing on aspects of sustainable development in the region and has been
increasing investment in the renewable energy sector in Central Asia.
A concrete example of regional energy security strengthening is the CASA-1000 project,
built on a cooperative approach to regional energy security. Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan
have abundant clean hydropower resources, producing surplus electricity during summer
months. Neighbouring Afghanistan and Pakistan contend with chronic electricity
shortages, especially during hot summers, leading to frequent power cuts that hurt
industrial production and endanger citizens during heat waves. This multinational
initiative aims to transfer 1,300 megawatts of surplus hydroelectric power from
Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan to Afghanistan and Pakistan through a shared system. This
$1.16 billion initiative, scheduled for completion in 2025, represents a shift from
competitive energy geopolitics to collaborative development, addressing both energy
surpluses and deficits across the region. By creating interdependencies between Central
and South Asian countries through a unified electricity market, the project transforms
energy from a source of competition to a foundation for regional stability, simultaneously
addressing energy access insecurity, climate concerns, economic underdevelopment, and
regional tensions. The EU has provided significant financial support to this regional
electricity transmission project through the European Investment Bank and technical
assistance (CASA-1000, 2025).
Ontological (in)security in EU-Russia relations and the Central Asia
rebalancing game
Ontological security can be understood as the reflective capacity of adapting routines and
systems of meaning to new situations in order to overcome anxieties and fears. In the
context of EU-Central Asia energy relations, this theoretical lens illuminates how the EU’s
energy policies respond not only to material supply concerns but to deeper anxieties
about identity and continuity. Material security references focus on concrete threats to
supply, infrastructure, and economic stability (e.g., supply disruptions, price volatility).
Ontological security concerns, by contrast, emerge through language about European
identity, values, and continuity (e.g., strategic autonomy, resilience). When EU
documents frame energy challenges primarily in terms of preserving European unity or
upholding climate leadership rather than addressing immediate supply risks, this signals
ontological rather than purely material security logic. For example, Germany’s response
to energy shortages shows how material crises trigger ontological anxiety. Chancellor
Scholz (2022) framed energy independence not merely as supply security but as
“sovereignty”, which reads along ‘strategic autonomy’ – language indicating concerns
about German/European identity and self-determination beyond immediate material
needs. The German case demonstrates how material and ontological security concerns
operate in tandem. While Germany experienced genuine material constraints requiring
JANUS.NET, e-journal of International Relations
e-ISSN: 1647-7251
VOL. 16, Nº. 2
November 2025-April 2026, pp. 157-179
Securing the Self: Ontological Security and Energy Relations in EU-Central Asia Engagement
after Ukraine
Maria Raquel Freire, Komron Fayzulloev
163
production adjustments and consumption moderation, the broader EU response revealed
ontological anxiety about European energy autonomy. Material security logic would
predict pursuing the most cost-effective alternatives regardless of supplier. However, the
EU's emphasis on ‘strategic autonomy’, its investment in more expensive Central Asian
partnerships, and its acceleration of renewable transition despite higher short-term costs
indicate that identity concerns shaped policy choices beyond pure material calculation.
The ontological dimension thus explains not whether material threats exist, but how
actors interpret and respond to them in ways that maintain coherent self-narratives.
The EU’s decades-long energy relationship with Russia constituted a set of routinized
practices that helped define the EU’s self-perception as a stable, prosperous entity
capable of managing complex interdependencies. When Russia’s actions in Ukraine
shattered these routines, the resulting ontological insecurity prompted the EU to seek
not just alternative energy sources but new narratives of energy security that could
restore its sense of continuity and agency. The EU’s construction of itself as a ‘secure
energy user’ emerges clearly in key policy documents following major energy crises. The
European Commission’s 2022 REPowerEU plan explicitly frames Europe as moving from
vulnerability to resilience, with the concrete example of EU dropping its share of Russian
gas imports from 45% to 19% between the launching of this programme and 2024
(European Commission, 2025), and the energy security strategy that it involves has been
positioning the EU as a reliable partner that must diversify suppliers and routes (Sarno
& Colantoni, 2023). These framings consistently present energy challenges as temporary
disruptions to an inherently secure European energy system, rather than fundamental
vulnerabilities. The REPowerEU Plan, adopted in May 2022 as a direct response to
Russia’s war of aggression in Ukraine, exemplifies the EU’s narrative shift toward energy
autonomy through renewable acceleration. The programme’s ambitious renewable
energy targets and rapid capacity increases represent more than technical achievements
– they constitute the EU’s attempt to reconstruct its identity as a self-reliant energy actor
no longer dependent on Russian supplies.
Therefore, ontological security can lead to readjustments not only in the actor himself,
but also in the identity narrative that is articulated and becomes part of the process of
identifying how we want to define ourselves (Browning and Joenniemi, 2017). This is a
process that allows us to better understand the ability to adjust to change in contexts of
uncertainty, visible through narratives. In the case of European energy security, from
the point of view of the EU towards Russia, the discourse has shifted to the formula “the
other as a threat”, following the understanding that energy became a threat to the
collective well-being.
Several authors have worked on ontological security at this “collective level” (Browning,
2018; Hansen, 2016; Kinnvall, 2006; Mitzen, 2006; Steele, 2008; Zarakol, 2017), where
self-identification is a central reference point for the way we feel threatened or instead
reinforced in our own identity/security. Routines are part of this process of self-
identification and autobiographical narratives become legitimisers of an actor’s existence
and continuity. These autobiographical narratives are defined in fundamental documents,
such as the EU Strategy for Central Asia, the Global Gateway Initiative and SECCA
(Sustainable Energy Connectivity in Central Asia) project. The negotiation of new-
generation Enhanced Partnership and Cooperation Agreements (EPCAs) with Central
JANUS.NET, e-journal of International Relations
e-ISSN: 1647-7251
VOL. 16, Nº. 2
November 2025-April 2026, pp. 157-179
Securing the Self: Ontological Security and Energy Relations in EU-Central Asia Engagement
after Ukraine
Maria Raquel Freire, Komron Fayzulloev
164
Asian states has also provided a strong vehicle to forge a more modern and diversified
partnership beyond a “trade and aid” agenda and promote cooperation and regulatory
convergence in areas which are relevant to the reform processes underway in the region.
In this way, these institutional cooperation mechanisms foster a narrative of cooperation
and assurance building on the normative agenda routinised in EU collaboration.
2
By outlining priorities and practices that build routinised relations, these documents
create the autobiographical narrative that allows the perception of policies and actions to
be implemented. From an ontological security perspective maintaining routine and
stability prevails, fulfilling the defined objectives and allowing a self-defined position as
autonomous. When routine is disrupted and uncertainty and anxiety prevail, ontological
insecurity arises. This leads actors to seek to reorient strategies to restore stable
narratives or conduct changes that seek a repositioning where the self regains the feeling
of security. The anxiety caused by Russian political action and narrative, with the war in
Ukraine since 2014 and the full-scale invasion in 2022, materialised ontological insecurity
(Freire, 2020), forcing a readjustment of systems of meaning – the EU-Russia partnership
crumbled down, and a new antagonistic narrative took shape, where potential cuts in
supplies fuelled insecurity. Political resistance from the EU, through a policy of increased
autonomy from Russia’s supplies, including through strengthening relations with Central
Asian states, signalled a change in the policy and practice in search of reassurance.
Indeed, “ontological security is not just a question of stability, but also of adaptability,
that is, openness and ability to deal with change” (Browning and Joenniemi, 2017: p.
32).
The reconceptualization of energy relation in Eurasia is part of this process, where Central
Asia has been taking on a central role. Furthermore, the construction of the narrative
seeking to reinforce routinised behaviours and biographical continuity, can be challenged
both internally through a self-reflective process as well as external challenges. EU-Central
Asia energy relations encapsulate these dynamics of readaptation to a differentiated
context, where new narratives are framing ontological security drivers related to energy
security and different competitors in this great game. This framework allows us to look
at how energy security narratives impact the international and the domestic contexts,
and how autobiographical narratives and competitive dynamics contribute to feelings of
ontological (in)security.
Setting the context: EU-Central Asia energy relations
After the collapse of the Soviet Union, the energy resources of Central Asia became
crucial not only for material reasons but for how major powers constructed their post-
Cold War identities and narratives. For Russia, maintaining influence over Central Asian
energy resources reinforced its autobiographical narrative as a continuing great power
despite the Soviet collapse. For Western powers, engaging with these states aligned with
narratives of expanding liberal market democracy. The EU’s later entry into this
competition – accelerated by ontological insecurity following Russia’s actions in Ukraine
2
The EPCA with Kazakhstan has come into force. The EPCA with Kyrgyzstan was initialled in 2019 and work
proceeds on preparing the text for signatures. EPCA negotiations with Uzbekistan are nearing completion. The
EU is preparing to engage in EPCA negotiations with Tajikistan.
JANUS.NET, e-journal of International Relations
e-ISSN: 1647-7251
VOL. 16, Nº. 2
November 2025-April 2026, pp. 157-179
Securing the Self: Ontological Security and Energy Relations in EU-Central Asia Engagement
after Ukraine
Maria Raquel Freire, Komron Fayzulloev
165
– demonstrates how disruptions to established security narratives can provoke new
engagement patterns as actors seek to restore coherent self-identities. The strategic
rivalry between Russia, China, and the United States makes the importance of the region
very noticeable, rich in natural resources, in particular oil, gas, and coal (Sirochiddin,
2020).
Acknowledging a renewed geopolitical interest in Central Asia based on the mineral
wealth of the region, in 1996, The New York Times published an opinion piece titled “The
New Great Game in Asia” stating:
While few have noticed, Central Asia has again emerged as a murky
battleground among big powers engaged in an old and rough geopolitical
game. Western experts believe that the largely untapped oil and natural gas
riches of the Caspian Sea countries could make that region the Persian Gulf
of the next century. The object of the revived game is to befriend leaders of
the former Soviet republics controlling the oil, while neutralizing Russian
suspicions and devising secure alternative pipeline routes to world markets.
(The New York Times, 1996)
According to Umirserik Kasenov (2021), the most important factor determining the new
geopolitical role of the Central Asian region is its energy resources, and above all, oil
from Kazakhstan and natural gas from Turkmenistan. In essence, the “New Great Game”
is fundamentally different from the Great Game of the late 19th and early 20th centuries
in Central Asia. In the old Great Game, the main players were Tsarist Russia and the
British Empire. In the New Great Game, the main players are Russia, the United States,
China, the European Union, and a number of regional powers, such as Islamic Republic
of Iran, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Pakistan, India, South Korea and Japan. The New Great
Game focuses to a great extent on oil, gas, and hydropower resources, while
simultaneously trying to narrow each other’s position in the region. Unlike the other
powers, the EU entered the game later, and this has been to a great extent mobilised by
an ontological security framework. The need to respond to Russia’s threat has led to a
shift in the narrative and readjustment of EU energy policies both within its space and
with regard to external players, such as further engagement with Central Asia. This shift
signals the effort to reconnect to stability and a cooperative narrative in energy terms.
The EU has shown its interest in the region’s oil and gas resources, and positioned itself
to contribute to the security of Central Asia. That is why, with the initiative and assistance
of the EU, several projects have been implemented in the region in the areas of
hydropower and renewable energy. The implementation of the BOMCA, CADAP and LEICA
programmes by the side of EU demonstrate how security and stability of Central Asia is
very important for the EU’s own security.
The Border Management Programme in Central Asia (BOMCA) is the flagship and largest
EU-funded programme in the region with an overall budget of 21.65 million euro and an
implementing period of 54 months. Since its launch in 2003, it has focused on capacity
building and institutional development, developing trade corridors and the facilitation of
trade, improving border management systems and eliminating drug trafficking across the
Central Asia region, spanning through critical issues. Security and stability in the region
JANUS.NET, e-journal of International Relations
e-ISSN: 1647-7251
VOL. 16, Nº. 2
November 2025-April 2026, pp. 157-179
Securing the Self: Ontological Security and Energy Relations in EU-Central Asia Engagement
after Ukraine
Maria Raquel Freire, Komron Fayzulloev
166
are thus at the core of the initiative, mainly by fostering sustainable economic
development through integrated border management (BOMCA, 2025). CADAP is the
Central Asia Drug Action Programme, an initiative of the EU to promote the development
of effective drug demand reduction policies in Central Asian countries. Also launched in
2003, it has been supporting the governments of Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan,
Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan in the implementation of strategies and measures to
reduce the demand for drugs, promoting prevention initiatives and improving the
treatment offered by public institutions to drug users in the region. Cooperation has
developed in the context of different projects and frameworks put forward in mutual
agreement (CADAP, 2025). The Law Enforcement in Central Asia project (LEICA) seeks
to build law enforcement capacities in the five Central Asian countries to enhance security
both on a national and regional level. In other words, the overall objective of LEICA is to
partner with Central Asian countries in order to prevent and to counter terrorist activity,
underlining the security considerations in the agenda (LEICA, 2024).
The energy landscape in Central Asia – where Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan
possess rich oil and gas reserves while Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan have abundant
hydropower resources – provides opportunities for the EU to reconstruct its energy
security narrative. These complementary resources align with the EU’s post-2022
narrative seeking stability and continuity by emphasising diversification, sustainability,
and reduced dependency on Russian supplies. The EU’s focus on renewable energy
partnerships with hydropower-rich Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan, for instance, reinforces its
self-identity as a green transition leader. Similarly, its engagement with Kazakhstan on
both traditional and renewable energy sources allows the EU to narrate a transition story
that maintains continuity (energy security) while embracing change (diversification away
from Russia). For Central Asian states, their different energy profiles enable distinct
identity narratives: Tajikistan positions itself as a “green energy” leader, while
Kazakhstan balances its fossil fuel wealth with nuclear energy ambitions, each
constructing separate ontological security frameworks through energy diplomacy.
Indeed, with only a few wind and solar power plants operating within their territories,
Central Asian governments keep a strong drive on fossil fuels (Kedar, 2021). Regarding
gas reserves in the world, Turkmenistan ranks 5th (13.6 trillion m3), Kazakhstan ranks
15th (2.3 trillion m3), Uzbekistan ranks 18th (0.8 trillion m3), Tajikistan ranks 91st (6
billion m3), and Kyrgyzstan ranks 92nd (6 billion m3) (BP, 2022). In terms of oil reserves,
Kazakhstan ranks 12th (30 billion barrels), Turkmenistan ranks 50th (600 million
barrels), Uzbekistan ranks 51st (million barrels), Kyrgyzstan ranks 82nd (40 million
barrels), and Tajikistan ranks 93rd (12 million barrels) (EIA, 2023). In the EU, oil and
gas are scarce, with import coming from Russia, Asian countries, Norway and the United
States. Germany and France have large coal reserves, and the EU countries are trying
year after year to reduce the amount of coal-fired energy due to its high greenhouse gas
emissions. The EU has achieved unprecedented success in renewable energy, with
Sweden, Finland, Latvia, Denmark, Estonia, Austria, Albania, Montenegro, Portugal and
Lithuania being the leading countries in this area. Renewable energy in these countries
accounts for between 30 and 70 percent of the energy used (Eurostat, 2025).
As part of the European Green Deal, in order to encourage this smart sector integration,
the Commission presented an EU strategy for energy system integration in July 2020,
promoting direct electrification of end-use sectors and involving various existing and
JANUS.NET, e-journal of International Relations
e-ISSN: 1647-7251
VOL. 16, Nº. 2
November 2025-April 2026, pp. 157-179
Securing the Self: Ontological Security and Energy Relations in EU-Central Asia Engagement
after Ukraine
Maria Raquel Freire, Komron Fayzulloev
167
emerging technologies, processes and business models, such as ICT and digitalisation,
smart grids and meters and flexibility markets (OECD, 2020). In particular, the scale up
of renewable energy production has been at the centre of the REPowerEU Plan’s objective
to build a secure and decarbonised energy system in the EU. Adopted in May 2022 as a
response to Russia’s war of aggression in Ukraine, the programme aims at phasing out
Russia’s fossil fuel imports (European Commission, n.d.). The latest data show
substantial results with the increase of installed wind and solar capacity by 36% between
2021 and 2023, saving approximately 35 billion cubic meters (bcm) of gas over 2 years.
With 56 GW of new solar energy capacity installed in 2023, the EU has set yet another
record surpassing the additional 40 GW installed in 2022. These figures represent
important steps in the right direction, but further acceleration is needed to meet the
REPowerEU targets under the EU Solar Energy Strategy and reach a total of at least 700
GW capacity by 2030, up from the estimated 263 GW installed at the end of 2023. Over
the last years, the EU has taken several initiatives to strengthen the support to the
European photovoltaic manufacturing sector by launching the European Solar PV Industry
Alliance, adopting a Solar Charter, and setting up a public-private co-programmed
partnership to support its coordinated R&I efforts (Eur-lex, 2022). As for wind power, 16
GW of new capacity was installed in the EU in 2023, reaching a total 221 GW. While this
shows good progress, the power sector needs to increase the pace of installation to meet
the EU’s ambitious renewable energy targets, a challenge to which the Commission has
responded with the adoption of the Wind Power Package (October 2023) (European
Commission, 2023), while striving for a balanced deployment in collaboration with local
citizens to avoid that the energy transition is challenged because of concerns over
landscapes, biodiversity, cultural heritage and lifestyles, especially in rural areas
(European Commission, 2024).
The EU aims to become fossil fuel independent by 2050, coal-free by 2030, and gas-fired
and nuclear-fired power generation (Gurkov, 2021). However, this narrative is not
matched in Central Asia, where there is no talk of abandoning coal and gas-fired power
plants. In Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan alone, more than 90 percent of electricity is
generated from hydropower, and these two countries are also planning to increase their
electricity generation from renewable sources. In the remaining countries, coal-fired
power plants are a priority, and even Uzbekistan has decided to build a nuclear power
plant (with Russian assistance) (World Nuclear News, 2024). Nevertheless, discussion on
how to better integrate energy-related cooperation and enhance regional security in the
Euro-Asia region have intensified. For example, on February 13, 2024, a telephone
conversation took place between the President of the Republic of Tajikistan, Emomali
Rahmon, and the then President of the European Council, Charles Michel. Further
strengthening dialogue and expand cooperation in political, economic and commercial
areas were mentioned as key. The parties also discussed security issues, including the
situation in Afghanistan and the strengthening of the Tajik-Afghan border. In this regard,
it was expressed confidence that cooperation within the framework of such programmes,
such as BOMCA, CADAP and LEICA would continue. The President of Tajikistan expressed
his support for more active cooperation in the implementation of “green economy” and
“green energy” policies (MFA Tajikistan 2024).
Central Asian states have developed distinct approaches to post-Soviet identity
construction since 1991, each crafting national visions that reflect their energy profiles
JANUS.NET, e-journal of International Relations
e-ISSN: 1647-7251
VOL. 16, Nº. 2
November 2025-April 2026, pp. 157-179
Securing the Self: Ontological Security and Energy Relations in EU-Central Asia Engagement
after Ukraine
Maria Raquel Freire, Komron Fayzulloev
168
and security needs. Kazakhstan’s ‘Strategy 2050’ emphasises multi-vector foreign policy
and nuclear non-proliferation leadership, positioning the country as a bridge between
major powers while leveraging its energy resources for identity construction
(Nazarbayev, 2012; Satubaldina, 2021). Uzbekistan’s ‘New Uzbekistan’ approach under
President Mirziyoyev has focused on regional reintegration and economic modernisation,
using energy cooperation to signal its transition from isolationist policies (Nadirova,
2024). Tajikistan centers its strategy on energy independence through hydropower
development, constructing an identity as a ‘green energy’ leader, while Kyrgyzstan has
pursued multi-vector diplomacy that balances competing external relationships (Ministry
of Foreign Affairs of Tajikistan, 2013; Masalbekova, 2024).
These differentiated approaches reveal a common pattern: all Central Asian states have
gradually shifted from Russian-dominated frameworks toward diversified partnerships
that reinforce their self-narratives as independent actors (DCAF, 2020). The ability to
engage multiple external partners – including the EU, China, and the United States –
serves ontological security needs by demonstrating sovereign agency and providing
narrative flexibility in their ongoing identity construction. In this context, the EU has
positioned itself as a relevant partner that allows these states to diversify their security
relationships while constructing new post-Soviet identities.
EU-Central Asia energy relations: from strangers to partners
The evolution of EU-Central Asia energy relations can be understood as part of an identity
construction where both actors used energy cooperation to build and maintain coherent
autobiographic narratives about their roles in the post-Cold War order. For the EU,
engagement with newly independent Central Asia states through the Technical Assistance
to the Commonwealth of Independent States (TACIS) programme represented an
opportunity to construct a narrative of itself as a transformative power capable of
extending liberal democracy values beyond its immediate neighbourhood (International
Crisis Group, 2006). The European Commission’s 1995 document “The EU’s relations with
the Newly Independent States of Central Asia” marked the first attempt to articulate a
coherent autobiographical narrative about the EU’s regional role, though its simultaneous
identification of geopolitical and economic interests alongside serious political concerns
over human rights and democracy revealed the fundamental tension in EU identity
construction between normative aspirations and strategic interests (European
Commission, 1995).
The September 11, 2001 terrorist attacks in the United States created profound
ontological disruption for both sides, forcing rapid revision of established security
narratives and compelling both actors to reconstruct their narratives around new security
imperatives (Kluczewska & Dzhuraev, 2020). The EU’s 2002 Strategic Paper for Central
Asia represented an attempt to reconstruct its regional identity around crisis
management and security cooperation, with the allocation of fifty million euros annually
signalling investment in maintaining the EU’s self-image as a capable international actor
(European Commission, 2002), However, the 2005 Andijan massacre created another
moment of profound ontological anxiety, forcing the EU to confront the impossibility of
JANUS.NET, e-journal of International Relations
e-ISSN: 1647-7251
VOL. 16, Nº. 2
November 2025-April 2026, pp. 157-179
Securing the Self: Ontological Security and Energy Relations in EU-Central Asia Engagement
after Ukraine
Maria Raquel Freire, Komron Fayzulloev
169
maintaining coherent narratives that simultaneously emphasised human rights
promotion and strategic partnership with authoritarian states (Drost et al., 2025: 47).
The Council of the European Union’s “Strategy for a New Partnership” with Central Asia
(2007) marked a critical juncture in ontological security construction, representing the
EU’s attempt to establish routinized practices that could stabilise its regional identity
(European Council, 2007; Fawn, 2021). The Czech Presidency’s 2009 emphasis on the
Southern Corridor initiative demonstrated how energy cooperation served identity
construction needs beyond material diversification, allowing the EU to narrate itself as a
strategic connectivity facilitator while providing Central Asia states with opportunities to
construct identities as energy partners rather than peripheral suppliers (Hubinger, 2009).
Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 created the most profound
ontological disruption in EU-Central Asia energy relations since the Soviet collapse,
fundamentally shattering established narratives of energy interdependence and peaceful
cooperation (Drost et al., 2025: 8). Russia’s 2014 annexation of Crimea and intervention
in eastern Ukraine first cracked the EU’s established energy interdependence narrative,
prompting initial diversification rhetoric. However, the EU’s response remained largely
within existing frameworks, seeking to maintain the possibility of restored relations with
Russia while gradually reducing dependence. The 2022 full-scale invasion represented a
qualitatively different rupture, with no illusion about energy partnership with Russia and
pushing for a comprehensive reorientation, which accelerated EU engagement with
Central Asia. The Strategic Partnership memoranda of Understanding with Kazakhstan
(November 2022) and Uzbekistan (April 2024) represent more than diversification
strategies – they constitute attempts to reconstruct autobiographical narratives of energy
security and autonomy (European Commission, 2022b; Delegation of the European Union
to Uzbekistan, 2024). EU energy relations with Central Asia have evolved from minimal
post-Soviet engagement to comprehensive strategic partnerships. Currently, we can see
how ontological security needs drive energy cooperation beyond material calculations, as
both the EU and Central Asian states use these partnerships to reconstruct coherent self-
narratives that can accommodate geopolitical disruption while maintaining identity
continuity.
Energy relations: building blocks or competing insecurities?
The relationship between the European Union and Central Asian states has evolved
significantly in recent years, marked by increased diplomatic engagement, strategic
framework development, and expansion of cooperation across multiple domains. EU-
Central Asian relations have been institutionalised through a series of strategic initiatives,
most notably the adoption of a new European Union Strategy for Central Asia in 2019
(EU Strategy, 2019). The New EU Strategy to Central Asia also sought to reinforce
relations in a context of tension with Russia (EU Strategy, 2019). One of the points of
the 2019 Strategy is the exchange of knowledge in the field of renewable energy and
energy efficiency. Indeed, in their mutual cooperation, the EU and Central Asia pay
serious attention to the energy sector. This is why over the course of more than 30 years
of cooperation between the two sides, many energy projects have been renovated or
built in the region. As the current EU strategy for Central Asia declares, “the strategic
JANUS.NET, e-journal of International Relations
e-ISSN: 1647-7251
VOL. 16, Nº. 2
November 2025-April 2026, pp. 157-179
Securing the Self: Ontological Security and Energy Relations in EU-Central Asia Engagement
after Ukraine
Maria Raquel Freire, Komron Fayzulloev
170
geographical location at the crossroads of Europe and Asia, its share of the EU’s energy
imports and the market potential of eighty million inhabitants, as well as the EU’s interest
in regional security, have made Central Asia an increasingly important partner for the
EU” (European Parliament and Council, 2019). In light of the Ukrainian crisis, relations
between Central Asian countries and the EU could be significantly strengthened by the
Team Europe Initiative on Water, Energy and Climate Change and the Team Europe
Initiative on Digital Connectivity, within the Global Gateway Project (European
Commission, 2022a).
The EU-Central Asia Connectivity Conference on November 17-18, 2022 in Samarkand
was the first meeting since the EU Global Gateway Strategy was adopted on December
1, 2021 and marked the intensification of the Union’s policy towards the region,
demonstrating the growing importance of Central Asia for the EU. The meeting was
attended by Central Asian leaders and the High Representative of the European Union
for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, Josep Borrell. This event was accompanied by the
launch of a number of EU initiatives covering areas such as energy, transport, climate
change, water and digital connectivity (European Commission, n/d). This framework has
been complemented by the establishment of regular high-level dialogue mechanisms,
including the Heads of State of Central Asia and European Union summit format, which
has convened twice already - first in Astana (October 2022) and subsequently in Cholpon-
Ata (June 2023). In April 2025, the first EU-Central Asia Summit took place, hosted by
the President of Uzbekistan, where it was stated the need to address common security
challenges, and explore new possibilities for engagement between the regions, along with
furthering cooperation and investments within the Global Gateway project (European
Council, 2025). These meetings, and particularly the Summit at the highest level in 2025
represent a significant elevation in diplomatic engagement between the regions
(European Council, 2025).
Other example of how the energy crisis caused by the Russia war on Ukraine and the
need for alternative energy suppliers became pressing is the agreement on a large-scale
project “Sustainable Energy Connectivity in Central Asia” (SECCA), the budget of which
is 6.8 million euros (Andžāns & Djatkoviča, 2023; see also Strulkova, n/d). The main
objective of the SECCA project is to support the transition to sustainable energy systems
by exploiting the region’s potential in solar, wind and hydropower in line with EU best
practices. The programme supports the implementation of pilot projects aimed at
demonstrating the viability and benefits of renewable energy technologies. In addition to
this, the SECCA project also focuses on energy efficiency measures. This includes
providing technical assistance and capacity building to improve energy efficiency by
reducing energy intensity in industry and improving the energy efficiency of buildings
(NUZ UZ, 2022). In addition, the SECCA project aims to increase access to energy in
remote and underserved areas of Central Asia. Access to basic energy services remains
a challenge for the region’s predominantly rural population. This involves supporting the
development of off-grid and mini-grid systems based on renewable energy sources
(Stantec, 2022).
The frequency and substantive nature of these dialogues indicate a mutual recognition
of the strategic importance of interregional cooperation. President Emomali Rahmon of
Tajikistan explicitly acknowledged satisfaction with the level of cooperation with the EU,
JANUS.NET, e-journal of International Relations
e-ISSN: 1647-7251
VOL. 16, Nº. 2
November 2025-April 2026, pp. 157-179
Securing the Self: Ontological Security and Energy Relations in EU-Central Asia Engagement
after Ukraine
Maria Raquel Freire, Komron Fayzulloev
171
while Kazakhstan’s President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev credited the EU with helping
strengthen intra-regional dialogue in Central Asia despite “unprecedented geopolitical
aggravation”. This suggests the EU is achieving a measure of normative influence in the
region.
Economic cooperation forms a cornerstone of EU-Central Asian relations, with the EU
emerging as a significant trade and investment partner for the region. President
Tokayev’s statement that the EU is “Kazakhstan’s largest trading partner, accounting for
more than 40% of our foreign trade” with bilateral trade reaching $40 billion in 2022 is
particularly illustrative of this economic interdependence. Furthermore, European
investment constitutes approximately half of Kazakhstan’s $350 billion in foreign direct
investment accumulated since independence. The economic dimension of the relationship
appears to be characterised by ambitious growth targets, as evidenced by Kazakhstan’s
stated goal of increasing trade with the EU to $50 billion by 2025. This economic
cooperation extends beyond traditional trade to encompass infrastructure investment,
particularly through the newly established EU-Central Asia Connectivity: A Global
Gateway to Sustainable Development framework launched in Samarkand in November
2022.
Transport infrastructure development, particularly the Trans-Caspian International
Transport Route, has emerged as a strategic priority in EU-Central Asian relations.
Multiple Central Asian leaders, including Presidents Tokayev, Mirziyoyev, and
Berdimuhamedov, emphasised the importance of this corridor in their diplomatic
communications. Turkmenistan, positioning itself as a “reliable transport bridge between
Asia and Europe”, has actively engaged with the EU on developing North-South and East-
West transport corridors. This focus on transport connectivity appears directly connected
to Central Asian states’ aspirations for economic diversification and reduced dependence
on traditional trade routes. President Mirziyoyev directly characterised the “diversification
of transport routes” as an “urgent task for all countries in our region”, suggesting the EU
engagement addresses a core strategic need of Central Asian states. President Tokayev,
while participating in the Central Asia-Germany meeting on September 17, 2024 in
Astana, said that “Kazakhstan welcomes the decision of European partners to allocate 10
billion euros as part of the Global Gateway programme for the development of the Middle
Corridor. We count on Germany’s assistance in connecting this route with the Trans-
European Transport Network (TEN-T) and the Global Gateway strategy”. According to
President Tokayev, further integration of transport and logistics systems between Central
Asia and Europe remains an urgent task (Tokayev, 2024). The Trans-Caspian
International Transport Route, also known as the Middle Corridor, connects China and
European countries through Kazakhstan, the Caspian Sea, Azerbaijan, Georgia and
Turkey, offering Central Asia a safe, short and inexpensive route given its rich resources
(European Parliament, 2023).
Energy cooperation constitutes a significant dimension of EU-Central Asian relations, with
emphasis on both traditional and renewable energy sources. The references to “green
energy” in statements by Presidents Rahmon and Mirziyoyev suggest alignment with the
EU’s own climate objectives and external energy policy. Notably, President Rahmon
outlined Tajikistan’s Strategy for the Development of the “Green Economy”, which aims
to increase renewable energy capacity to at least 1,000 megawatts by 2030. In fact, the
JANUS.NET, e-journal of International Relations
e-ISSN: 1647-7251
VOL. 16, Nº. 2
November 2025-April 2026, pp. 157-179
Securing the Self: Ontological Security and Energy Relations in EU-Central Asia Engagement
after Ukraine
Maria Raquel Freire, Komron Fayzulloev
172
Republic of Tajikistan has had fruitful cooperation with the EU in the energy sector since
its independence, with a significant role in the reconstruction of Tajikistan’s energy
networks, the introduction of new technologies for electricity metering, energy security,
and the construction of hydroelectric power plants, such as the Sebzor hydroelectric
power plant, located in the Gorno-Badakhshan Autonomous Region (Delegation of the
EU to Tajikistan, 2020; Interfax, 2024).
Concurrently, Kazakhstan’s President Tokayev emphasised the importance of nuclear
energy development, including accelerating construction of the country’s first nuclear
power plant and creating a “nuclear cluster” to address “growing energy deficit”. This
diversity in energy priorities across Central Asian states presents both opportunities and
challenges for EU energy diplomacy in the region, requiring a differentiated approach
that acknowledges varying national priorities while promoting broader sustainability
objectives. The EU’s engagement with Central Asia on security matters appears to be
welcomed by regional leaders, suggesting recognition of the EU’s potential contribution
to addressing complex security challenges in the region.
While the EU-Central Asia relationship has a strong multilateral component, bilateral
relations between the EU and individual Central Asian states display significant
differentiation. Kazakhstan appears to have the most developed economic relationship
with the EU, as evidenced by substantial trade and investment figures. Kyrgyzstan’s
President Japarov characterised the EU as “one of Kyrgyzstan’s reliable partners,
providing support to the country for sustainable development since independence”, while
Turkmenistan emphasised the development of “long-term ties” on both bilateral and
multilateral bases. This differentiation reflects varying levels of economic development,
resource endowments, and strategic orientations across Central Asian states,
necessitating a calibrated EU approach that balances regional frameworks with bilateral
engagement.
EU-Central Asian relations have evolved toward a more strategic partnership
characterised by regular high-level dialogue, diversified cooperation areas, and
increasingly institutionalised frameworks. Economic relations, particularly trade and
investment, form the foundation of this relationship, complemented by growing
cooperation in energy, security, transport connectivity and digital development. The
emphasis on formal dialogue mechanisms, particularly the establishment of regular
summits at the heads of state level, indicates mutual recognition of the strategic
importance of this interregional relationship. However, significant differentiation exists
across individual Central Asian states in terms of their specific priorities and depth of
engagement with the EU.
The European Parliament’s 2025 assessment of EU-Central Asia relations provides
compelling evidence for the ontological security dimensions of energy cooperation,
revealing significant disparity between strategic rhetoric and material outcomes. Despite
total bilateral trade of only 52.8 billion euro in 2023 and limited concrete energy flows,
the EU has committed 12 billion euro through the Global Gateway initiative specifically
to enhance energy and transport connectivity with the region (European Parliament,
2025). This disproportionate investment becomes particularly evident in the EU’s ongoing
negotiations with Turkmenistan for the Trans-Caspian Interconnector, a project that has
been under discussion since 2021 but involves only 10-12 billion cubic meters annually
JANUS.NET, e-journal of International Relations
e-ISSN: 1647-7251
VOL. 16, Nº. 2
November 2025-April 2026, pp. 157-179
Securing the Self: Ontological Security and Energy Relations in EU-Central Asia Engagement
after Ukraine
Maria Raquel Freire, Komron Fayzulloev
173
– a relatively modest contribution to EU energy needs. The document’s emphasis on
using Central Asian partnerships to “reduce dependence on China and Russia in the
context of global geopolitical changes” explicitly frames energy cooperation as serving
broader identity reconstruction purposes beyond material supply security. Moreover, the
Parliament’s focus on “enormous potential” for renewable energy cooperation and critical
raw materials partnerships with countries like Kazakhstan suggests the EU is constructing
future-oriented narratives of energy autonomy and green transition leadership, using
Central Asian partnerships as vehicles for autobiographical narrative reconstruction
rather than immediate material energy security gains. For Central Asian states,
particularly those transitioning from post-Soviet identities, partnerships with diverse
international actors represent opportunities to assert sovereign agency and construct
new national narratives. The ability to negotiate and maintain multiple external
relationships, rather than remaining exclusively within Russia’s sphere of influence,
reinforces these states’ self-realisation as independent actors. As both the EU and Central
Asian states navigate shifts in the context of the war in Ukraine regarding routes’
diversification, and regarding renewable energy sources, these transitions challenge
established identities tied to traditional energy production and consumption patterns.
This explains why cooperation frameworks that acknowledge identity needs, not merely
material interests, tend to generate more sustainable partnerships.
Conclusion
Through the lens of ontological security, this article looked at the evolving relationship
between the EU and Central Asian states, focusing on energy cooperation as a critical
domain where identity narratives and security anxieties intersect. The analysis reveals
that EU-Central Asia energy relations cannot be understood solely through material or
geopolitical frameworks, but must be situated within broader processes of identity
construction and narrative continuity that shape how both regions perceive and respond
to threats. The Russian full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022 represented a critical
juncture in the EU’s autobiographical narrative, fundamentally disrupting established
routines of energy interdependence with Russia that had structured the EU’s self-
understanding for decades. This disruption generated profound ontological insecurity,
compelling the EU to seek not just alternative energy sources but new narratives that
could restore a sense of continuity and purpose. Central Asia emerged as a key space for
this narrative reconstruction, with the EU developing frameworks like the Global Gateway
Initiative, SECCA, and enhanced institutional cooperation mechanisms that serve both
practical and identity functions.
Ontological security considerations help explain policy choices that might appear
suboptimal from purely material perspectives. The EU’s extensive investment in capacity-
building programmes alongside energy initiatives reflects an attempt to construct a
comprehensive narrative of partnership that stabilises its identity as a normative power
even as it pursues energy diversification. Similarly, Central Asian states’ willingness to
engage with multiple external actors reflects not just hedging strategies but efforts to
maintain narrative flexibility in their ongoing identity construction. The ontological
security framework shows how energy cooperation serves distinct identity reconstruction
purposes for both sides. For Central Asian states, engagement with the EU offers
JANUS.NET, e-journal of International Relations
e-ISSN: 1647-7251
VOL. 16, Nº. 2
November 2025-April 2026, pp. 157-179
Securing the Self: Ontological Security and Energy Relations in EU-Central Asia Engagement
after Ukraine
Maria Raquel Freire, Komron Fayzulloev
174
opportunities to strengthen their post-Soviet identity narratives as sovereign actors with
agency in international relations. For the EU, these partnerships reinforce its self-
narrative as a normative power promoting sustainable development and regional
integration beyond its immediate neighbourhood. Thus, energy security is revealed to be
not simply about securing physical supplies but about maintaining coherent self-
narratives in a world of disruption and change.
References
Amineh, Mehdi P. & Crijns-Graus, Wina H. J. (2018). «The EU-Energy Security and
Geopolitical Economy. The Persian Gulf, the Caspian Region and China». African and
Asian Studies. 17: 145-187.
Andžāns, Māris & Djatkoviča, Evija (2023). The Global Gateway and Central Asia: Toward
an EU-led Post-New Silk Road. In Center for Geopolitical Studies Riga [Em linha]. 2023.
[Consult. em 06-02-2025]. Disponível em https://www.geopolitics.center/outputs/the-
global-gateway-and-central-asia
Basirov, B.S. (2017) The role of Central Asian States in the system of the interest of
European Union. Bulletin of the Tajik National University, 3-5: 100-102. [Consult. em 06-
02-2025]. Disponível em https://elibrary.ru/item.asp?id=30764457 (Date of access: 22-
09-2025)
Basis for the EU – Central Asia Cooperation (n.d.). [Consult. em 21-02-2025]. Disponível
em https://www.eeas.europa.eu/eeas/basis-eu-%E2%80%93-central-asia-
cooperation_en
BOMCA (2025). Border management programme in Central Asia. [Consult. em 11-02-
2025]. Disponível em https://www.bomca-eu.org/en/
BP (2022). BP Statistical Review of World Energy. [Consult. em 04-02-2025]. Disponível
em https://www.bp.com/content/dam/bp/business-
sites/en/global/corporate/xlsx/energy-economics/statistical-review/bp-stats-review-
2022-all-data.xlsx
Browning, Christopher S. (2018). «Geostrategies, geopolitics and ontological security in
the Eastern neighbourhood: The European Union and the ‘new Cold War’». Political
Geography. 62: 106-115.
Browning, Christopher S. & Joenniemi, Pertti (2017). «Ontological security, self-
articulation and the securitization of identity». Cooperation and Conflict. 52(1): 31-47.
CADAP (2025). Central Asia drug action programme. [Consult. em 11-02-2025].
Disponível em https://www.eu-cadap.org/
CASA-1000 (2025). Official page of CASA-1000 project. [Consult. em 02-03-2025].
Disponível em https://www.casa-1000.org/
Delegation of the EU to Tajikistan (2020). Grant and Project Implementing Agreement
for EU-Funded HPP Construction in Tajikistan signed in Dushanbe. [Consult. em 07-02-
2025]. Disponível em https://www.eeas.europa.eu/delegations/tajikistan/grant-and-
JANUS.NET, e-journal of International Relations
e-ISSN: 1647-7251
VOL. 16, Nº. 2
November 2025-April 2026, pp. 157-179
Securing the Self: Ontological Security and Energy Relations in EU-Central Asia Engagement
after Ukraine
Maria Raquel Freire, Komron Fayzulloev
175
project-implementing-agreement-eu-funded-hpp-construction-tajikistan-signed-
dushanbe_en
Delegation of the EU to Uzbekistan (2024). EU establishes strategic partnership with
Uzbekistan on critical raw materials. Consult. em 04-02-2025]. Disponível em
https://www.eeas.europa.eu/delegations/uzbekistan/eu-establishes-strategic-
partnership-uzbekistan-critical-raw-materials_en?s=233
Delcour, Laure (2011). Shaping the Post-Soviet Space? EU Policies and Approaches to
Region-Building. Ashgate Publishing.
Drost, Niels; Cretti, Giulia & van Giersbergen, Babette (2025). Central Asia emerging
from the shadows. European Union – Central Asia relations in evolving Eurasian
geopolitics. Clingendael Report. The Hague: Netherlands Institute of International
Relations ‘Clingendael’.
EIA USA (2023). International - U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA). [Consult.
em 04-02-2025]. Disponível em
https://www.eia.gov/international/data/world/petroleum-and-other-liquids/annual-
crude-and-lease-condensate-reserves
EU Strategy (2019). Council Conclusions on the New Strategy on Central Asia. [Consult.
em 03-02-2025]. Disponível em
https://www.consilium.europa.eu/media/39778/st10221-en19.pdf
Eur-lex (2022). EU Solar Energy Strategy. [Consult. em 03-02-2025]. Disponível em
https://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-
content/EN/TXT/?uri=COM%3A2022%3A221%3AFIN&qid=1653034500503
European Commission (1995). EU’s Relations with the Newly Independent States of
Central Asia. 9 June. [Consult. em 03-02-2025]. Disponível em
https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/memo_95_89
European Commission (2002). Strategy Paper 2002-2006 & Indicative Programme 2002-
2004
for Central Asia. Brussels. [Consult. em 03-02-2025]. Disponível em
https://www.libertas-institut.com/de/ECTIS/EU%20StrategyPaperCentralAsia.pdf
European Commission (2022a). Global Gateway: Team Europe launches two initiatives
in Central Asia on energy and on digital connectivity. [Consult. em 03-02-2025].
Disponível em https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/IP_22_6963
European Commission (2022b) Strategic partnership with Kazakhstan on raw materials,
batteries and renewable hydrogen. Consult. em 03-02-2025]. Disponível em
https://international-partnerships.ec.europa.eu/policies/global-gateway/strategic-
partnership-kazakhstan-raw-materials-batteries-and-renewable-hydrogen_en
European Commission (2023). EU wind energy. [Consult. em 03-02-2025]. Disponível
em https://energy.ec.europa.eu/topics/renewable-energy/eu-wind-energy_en
European Commission (2024). State of the Energy Union Report 2024. [Consult. em 21-
01-2025]. Disponível em https://energy.ec.europa.eu/publications/state-energy-union-
report-2024_en
JANUS.NET, e-journal of International Relations
e-ISSN: 1647-7251
VOL. 16, Nº. 2
November 2025-April 2026, pp. 157-179
Securing the Self: Ontological Security and Energy Relations in EU-Central Asia Engagement
after Ukraine
Maria Raquel Freire, Komron Fayzulloev
176
European Commission (2025). Roadmap to fully end EU dependency on Russian energy.
6 May. [Consult. em 21-01-2025]. Disponível em https://commission.europa.eu/news-
and-media/news/roadmap-fully-end-eu-dependency-russian-energy-2025-05-06_en
European Commission (n.d.). Global Gateway. [Consult. em 08-02-2025]. Disponível em
https://commission.europa.eu/strategy-and-policy/priorities-2019-2024/stronger-
europe-world/global-gateway_en
European Council (2007). The EU and Central Asia: Strategy for a New Partnership. 31
May. [Consult. em 06-04-2025]. Disponível em
https://data.consilium.europa.eu/doc/document/ST-10113-2007-INIT/en/pdf
European Council (2024). Impact of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine on the markets: EU
response. [Consult. em 01-02-2025]. Disponível em
https://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/policies/eu-response-russia-military-aggression-
against-ukraine/impact-of-russia-s-invasion-of-ukraine-on-the-markets-eu-response/
European Council (2025). First EU-Central Asia Summit. [Consult. em 06-04-2025].
Disponível em https://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/meetings/international-
summit/2025/04/04/
European Parliament (2025). Central Asia. [Consult. em 06-05-2025]. Disponível em
https://www.europarl.europa.eu/factsheets/en/sheet/178/central-asia
European Parliament (2023). MEPs back deploying new EU satellites to protect
government communications. [Consult. em 08-02-2025]. Disponível em
https://www.europarl.europa.eu/news/en/press-room/20230210IPR74712/meps-back-
deploying-new-eu-satellites-to-protect-government-communications
European Parliament and Council (2019). The EU and Central Asia: New Opportunities
for a Stronger Partnership. [Consult. em 05-02-2025]. Disponível em
https://www.eeas.europa.eu/sites/default/files/joint_communication_-
_the_eu_and_central_asia_-_new_opportunities_for_a_stronger_partnership.pdf
Eurostat (2025). Share of energy from renewable sources. [Consult. em 05-02-2025].
Disponível em
https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/databrowser/view/NRG_IND_REN/default/table
Fatima, Qamar & Zafar, Sumera (2014). «New Great Game: Players, Interests,
Strategies and Central Asia». South Asian Studies. 29(2): 623-652.
Fawn, Rick (2021). «‘Not here for geopolitical interests or games’: the EU’s 2019 strategy
and the regional and inter-regional competition for Central Asia». Central Asian Survey.
41(4): 675-698.
Fayzulloev, K. S. (2018). «Energy diplomacy of states: terminological and conceptual
aspects». Bulletin of the Tajik National University. 8: 62-66.
Fernandes, Sandra & Simão, Licínia (2010). «Competing for Eurasia: Russian and
European Union Perspectives». In Maria Raquel Freire e Roger E. Kanet (ed), Key players
and regional dynamics in Eurasia. The return of the "Great Game". Palgrave MacMillan,
103-125.
JANUS.NET, e-journal of International Relations
e-ISSN: 1647-7251
VOL. 16, Nº. 2
November 2025-April 2026, pp. 157-179
Securing the Self: Ontological Security and Energy Relations in EU-Central Asia Engagement
after Ukraine
Maria Raquel Freire, Komron Fayzulloev
177
Freire, Maria Raquel (2020). «EU and Russia competing projects in the neighbourhood:
an ontological security approach». Revista Brasileira de Política Internacional. 63(1).
Global Gateway (n.d.). [Consult. em 20-02-2025]. Disponível em
https://commission.europa.eu/strategy-and-policy/priorities-2019-2024/stronger-
europe-world/global-gateway_en
Gurkov, Andrey (2021). Renewable energy sources have become the main source of
electricity in the EU. [Consult. em 01-02-2025]. Disponível em
https://www.dw.com/ru/vije-teper-glavnyj-istochnik-jelektrichestva-v-es/a-56339064
Hansen, Flemming Splidsboel (2016). «Russia’s relations with the West: ontological
security through conflict». Contemporary Politics. 22(3): 359-375.
Hubinger, Vaclav (2009). Southern Corridor: A Strategy for Sustainable Energy
Cooperation with Central Asia. EUCAM Watch, 4. [Consult. em 06-02-2025]. Disponível
em https://eucentralasia.eu/the-energy-problematique-in-eu-central-asia-relations/
Interfax (2024). EU to allocate additional 16 million euro to Tajikistan to complete
construction of Gorno-Badakhshan hydroelectric power station. [Consult. em 07-02-
2025]. Disponível em https://interfax.com/newsroom/top-stories/100507/
International Crisis Group (2006). Central Asia: What Role for the European Union? Crisis
Group Asia Report N°113, 10 April. [Consult. em 06-02-2025]. Disponível em
https://www.crisisgroup.org/sites/default/files/113-central-asia-what-role-for-the-
european-union.pdf
Issova L.T. & Saryyeva B.S. (2015). Energy policy of European Union in Central Asia.
[Consult. em 02-03-2025]. Disponível em https://bulletin-ir-law.kaznu.kz/index.php/1-
mo/article/view/336/330
Kasenov, Umirserik (2021). A new ‘Great Game’ in Central Asia?. [Consult. em 08-02-
2025]. Disponível em https://ca-c.org.ru/journal/1997/08-1997/st_11_kasenov.shtml
Kavalski, Emilian & Cho, Young Chul (2018). «The European Union in Central Eurasia:
still searching for strategy». Asia Europe Journal. 16: 51-63.
Kedar, Mehta (2021). The Energy Situation in Central Asia: A Comprehensive Energy
Review Focusing on Rural Areas. [Consult. em 06-02-2025]. Disponível em
https://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/14/10/2805
Kinnvall, Catarina (2006). Globalization and religious nationalism in India: the search for
ontological security. Routledge.
Kluczewska, Karolina & Dzhuraev, Shairbek (2020). «The EU and Central Asia: The
Nuances of an ‘Aided’ Partnership». In Rick Fawn (ed), Managing Security Threats along
the EU’s Eastern Flanks. Cham: Springer International Publishing, 225-251.
Kobilov, F. O. (2021). «New European Union Strategy for Central Asia: Challenges,
Experience and Prospects». Sociosphere. 2: 142-145.
Laumulin, Murat (2019). The EU’s Incomplete Strategy for Central Asia. In Strategic
Europe [Em linha]. 2019. [Consult. em 16-02-2025]. Disponível em
https://carnegieendowment.org/europe/strategic-europe/2019/12/the-eus-incomplete-
strategy-for-central-asia
JANUS.NET, e-journal of International Relations
e-ISSN: 1647-7251
VOL. 16, Nº. 2
November 2025-April 2026, pp. 157-179
Securing the Self: Ontological Security and Energy Relations in EU-Central Asia Engagement
after Ukraine
Maria Raquel Freire, Komron Fayzulloev
178
LEICA (2024). About LEICA project. [Consult. em 16-02-2025]. Disponível em
https://www.project-leica.eu/about/
Masalbekova, Adina (2024). Mapping Threats and Kyrgyzstan’s Security Development.
In CIRSD [Em linha]. 2024. [Consult. em 06-02-2025]. Disponível em
https://www.cirsd.org/en/horizons/horizons-spring-2024--issue-no-26/mapping-
threats-and-kyrgyzstans-security-development
MFA Tajikistan (2024). Telephone conversation with the President of the European
Council Charles Michel. [Consult. em 06-02-2025]. Disponível em
https://mfa.tj/en/main/view/14360/telephone-conversation-with-the-president-of-the-
european-council-charles-michel
Mitzen, Jennifer (2006). «Ontological security in world politics: state identity and the
security dilemma». European journal of international relations. 12(6): 341-370.
Movkebaeva, G.A. (2015). Energy policy of European Union in Central Asia. [Consult. em
02-03-2025]. Disponível em https://bulletin-ir-law.kaznu.kz/index.php/1-
mo/article/view/83/83
Nadirova, Gulnar (2024). The Concept of the National Vision and its Priorities in
Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan. In Eurasian Research Institute [Em linha]. 2024. [Consult.
em 23-01-2025]. Disponível em https://www.eurasian-research.org/publication/the-
concept-of-the-national-vision-and-its-priorities-in-uzbekistan-and-kazakhstan/
Nazarbayev, Nursultan (2012). Address by the President of the Republic of Kazakhstan
Nursultan Nazarbayev to the People of Kazakhstan. [Consult. em 23-01-2025].
Disponível em https://www.akorda.kz/en/addresses/addresses_of_president/address-
by-the-president-of-the-republic-of-kazakhstan-nursultan-nazarbayev-to-the-people-
of-kazakhstan-27-01-2012_1341926486
NUZ.UZ (2022). ADB and ITFC agreed to lend the Ministry of Finance of the Republic of
Uzbekistan $600 million to support the budget. [Consult. em 23-01-2025]. Disponível
em https://kun.uz/en/99797022
OECD (2020). The EU Strategy for energy system integration. [Consult. em 21-02-2025].
Disponível em https://stip.oecd.org/stip/interactive-dashboards/policy-
initiatives/2023%2Fdata%2FpolicyInitiatives%2F99993658
Official page of SECCA (n.d.). [Consult. em 20-02-2025]. Disponível em
https://secca.eu/about-us/overview/
Rahimov, Komron (2024). The energy future of Central Asia in joint projects. [Consult.
em 06-03-2025]. Disponível em https://e-cis.info/news/566/122546/
Sarno, Giulia Sofia & Colantoni, Lorenzo (2023). A Changing Energy Diplomacy: The
External Dimension of the REPowerEU Plan. Rome: Istituto Affari Internazionali (IAI).
Satubaldina, Assel (2021). Head of Kazakh Think Tank Addresses Country’s Development
Progress Since Independence. In The Astana Times [Em linha]. 2021. [Consult. em 02-
02-2025]. Disponível em https://astanatimes.com/2021/12/head-of-kazakh-think-tank-
addresses-countrys-development-progress-since-independence/
JANUS.NET, e-journal of International Relations
e-ISSN: 1647-7251
VOL. 16, Nº. 2
November 2025-April 2026, pp. 157-179
Securing the Self: Ontological Security and Energy Relations in EU-Central Asia Engagement
after Ukraine
Maria Raquel Freire, Komron Fayzulloev
179
Scholz, Olaf (2022). Speech by Federal Chancellor Olaf Scholz at the Charles University
in Prague on Monday, 29 August 2022. [Consult. em 01-02-2025]. Disponível em
https://www.bundesregierung.de/breg-en/service/archive/scholz-speech-prague-
charles-university-2080752
Sirochiddin, S. (2020). «The New Great Game in Central Asia: Conflicts and Interests of
Russia, China and the United States». News of the Institute of Philosophy, Political
Science and Law named after A. Bahovaddinov of the National Academy of Sciences of
Tajikistan. 3: 150-156.
Spaiser, Olga Alinda (2015). «The EU as a Security Actor in Central Asia: Minor but Not
Marginal». L’Europe en Formation. 2015/1(375): 83-105.
Steele, Brent J. (2008). Ontological security in international relations. Routledge.
Strulkova, Angelina (2024). Инициатива ЕС «Глобальные ворота» в Центральной
Азии. In RFIAC Publications [Em linha]. 2024. [Consult. em 07-02-2025]. Disponível em
https://russiancouncil.ru/analytics-and-comments/columns/postsoviet/initsiativa-es-
globalnye-vorota-v-tsentralnoy-azii/
The New York Times (1996). The New Great Game in Asia. [Consult. em 09-02-2025].
Disponível em https://www.nytimes.com/1996/01/02/opinion/the-new-great-game-in-
asia.html
Tokayev, Kassym-Jomart (2024). Astana welcomes the decision of European partners to
allocate 10 billion euros for the development of the Middle Corridor. [Consult. em 24-02-
2025]. Disponível em
https://azertag.az/ru/xeber/tokaev_astana_privetstvuet_reshenie_evropeiskih_partner
ov_o_vydelenii_10_mlrd_evro_dlya_razvitiya_srednego_koridora-3183438
Vasa, László (2020). «The European Union Strategy on Central Asia: out of game?».
Romanian Journal of European Affairs. 20(2): 120-130.
von Hauff, Luba (2019). «Towards a new quality of cooperation? The EU, China, and
Central Asian Security in a Multipolar Age». Asia Europe Journal. 17: 195-210.
World Nuclear News (2024). Russia set to build SMR nuclear power plant in Uzbekistan.
[Consult. em 01-02-2025]. Disponível em https://world-nuclear-
news.org/Articles/Russia-set-to-build-SMR-nuclear-power-plant-in-Uzb
Zarakol, Ayşe (2017). «States and ontological security: A historical rethinking».
Cooperation and Conflict. 52(1): 48-68.
OBSERVARE
Universidade Autónoma de Lisboa
e-ISSN: 1647-7251
VOL. 16, Nº. 2
November 2025-April 2026
180
RUSSIA'S TURN TO THE EAST: ANALYSING THE DRIVERS OF MOSCOW'S
FOREIGN POLICY TOWARDS THE ASIA-PACIFIC REGION SINCE 1991
MÓNICA ROMÁN GONZÁLEZ
monroman@ucm.es
Mónica Román González is a PhD student at Complutense University of Madrid (Spain), where
she received a Bachelor’s degree in International Relations (2017-2021) and a Master’s degree in
International Politics: Sectorial and Area Studies (2021-2022). Her primary work is in the field of
International Relations, with a specialization in Eastern Europe and the Asia-Pacific region. She
has published articles for the Spanish Institute for Strategic Studies (IEEE) and Logos Guardia
Civil magazine, which are affiliated with the Spanish Ministry of Foreign Affairs and the Spanish
Ministry of the Interior, respectively. Aside from this, she was granted the Extraordinary Award
by the Faculty of Political Science & Sociology at Complutense University of Madrid for her Master
dissertation.
Abstract
Since the end of the Cold War and the consequent dissolution of the Soviet Union in 1991,
Russia has made the recovery of a relevant status in the international system one of the main
objectives of its foreign policy. To achieve this aim, it is of great interest for Moscow to play
an important role in the world’s fastest growing region in recent decades: the Asia-Pacific
region. Although the Kremlin’s involvement has been more visible in other areas such as the
post-Soviet space or Europe, a gradual process of reorientation of Russian foreign policy
towards its Eastern neighbourhood has begun since the beginning of the 21st century. Hence,
this article presents the results of a mixed method research design related to the main internal
and systemic factors that have turned Asia-Pacific region into a priority area for the Russian
Federation since its independence in 1991.
Keywords
Russian Federation, Foreign Policy, Asia-Pacific, International Relations.
Resumo
Desde o fim da Guerra Fria e a consequente dissolução da União Soviética em 1991, a Rússia
fez da recuperação de um estatuto relevante no sistema internacional um dos principais
objetivos da sua política externa. Para alcançar esse objetivo, é de grande interesse para
Moscovo desempenhar um papel importante na região com o crescimento mais rápido nas
últimas décadas: a região Ásia-Pacífico. Embora o envolvimento do Kremlin tenha sido mais
visível noutras áreas, como o espaço pós-soviético ou a Europa, desde o início do século XXI
iniciou-se um processo gradual de reorientação da Política Externa Russa em direção à sua
vizinhança oriental. Assim, este artigo apresenta os resultados de uma investigação com um
desenho metodológico misto, relacionada com os principais fatores internos e sistémicos que
transformaram a região Ásia-Pacífico numa área prioritária para a Federação Russa desde a
sua independência em 1991.
Palavras-chave
Federação Russa, Política Externa, Ásia-Pacífico, Relações Internacionais.
How to cite this article
JANUS.NET, e-journal of International Relations
e-ISSN: 1647-7251
VOL. 16, Nº. 2
November 2025-April 2026, pp. 180-201
Russia's turn to the East: analysing the Drivers of Moscow's Foreign Policy Towards the Asia-
Pacific Region since 1991
Mónica Román González
181
González, Mónica Román (2025). Russia's turn to the East: analysing the Drivers of Moscow's
Foreign Policy Towards the Asia-Pacific Region since 1991. Janus.net, e-journal of international
relations. VOL. 16, Nº. 2, November 2025-April 2026, pp. 180-201.
DOI https://doi.org/10.26619/1647-7251.16.2.10
Article submitted on 1st December 2023 and accepted for publicaton on 4th of August
2025.
JANUS.NET, e-journal of International Relations
e-ISSN: 1647-7251
VOL. 16, Nº. 2
November 2025-April 2026, pp. 180-201
Russia's turn to the East: analysing the Drivers of Moscow's Foreign Policy Towards the Asia-
Pacific Region since 1991
Mónica Román González
182
RUSSIA'S TURN TO THE EAST: ANALYSING THE DRIVERS OF
MOSCOW'S FOREIGN POLICY TOWARDS THE ASIA-PACIFIC
REGION SINCE 1991
1
MÓNICA ROMÁN GONZÁLEZ
Introduction
Since its emergence as an independent state in 1991, the Russian Federation has
maintained a constant interest in the Asia-Pacific region. This interest has sometimes
gone unnoticed due to the priority given to its so-called “Near Abroad” (bližneye
zarubežye Ближнее Зарубежье)
2
, and, to a lesser extent, to other areas. Although the
Kremlin's efforts in the Asia-Pacific have evolved over time and intensified in recent
years, Moscow’s interest in the area is often seen as a reaction to the deterioration in
Russian-Western relations following the country’s decision to invade Ukraine. However,
the reality is that Russian engagement in Southeast Asia dates back several decades and
is the result of various factors influencing the foreign policy decision-making process.
In the first place, Russia’s interest in its Asian neighbourhood is rooted in the expansionist
periods of the Russian Empire and the Soviet Union. While the primary external threats
perceived by Russia have historically come from the West, its interactions with Pacific
powers have been a consistent feature of its diplomatic history, even under pro-Western
leaders such as Peter the Great. Furthermore, the Russian territories that border the
Asia-Pacific region —known collectively as the Russian Far East— are part of the Tsarist
and Communist legacy
3
.
On the other hand, due to the ongoing consolidation of the so-called “vertical of power”
or “power vertical” (vertikal vlasti Вертикаль власти)
4
, the President of Russia plays a
dominant role in the foreign policy decision-making process, as stated in the Russian
Constitution adopted in 1993 (Chapter 4: Art. 80-93) and the amendments of 2020.
1
ACP – The African, Caribbean and Pacific Group of States / AIIB – Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank /
APEC – Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation / APR – Asia-Pacific Region / ASEAN – Association of Southeast Asian
Nations / BRICS – Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa / CIS – Commonwealth of Independent States /
EAS – East Asia Summit / EEF – Eastern Economic Forum / EDM – Eastern Military District / EFTA – European
Free Trade Association / EU – European Union / G20 – Group of 20 / NATO – North Atlantic Treaty Organization
/ OECD – Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development / OECD-EC – Organization for Economic
Co-operation and Development-European Commission / OSK – Operational-Strategic Command
(Obyedinennoye Strategicheskoye Komandovanie Объединенное стратегическое командование) / QUAD –
Quadrilateral Security Dialogue / SCO – Shanghai Cooperation Organization / SIPRI – Stockholm International
Peace Research Institute / U.S.A / U.S – United States of America / UN Comtrade – United Nations Commodity
Trade Statistics Database / USD – US dollar.
2
. “Near Abroad” is a concept used by the Russian Federation to refer to the countries of the former Soviet
Union, with the purpose of asserting its perceived “right” to expand influence in this part of the world - see
William Safire, “On Language: Near Abroad”, New York Times, May 22, 1994,
https://www.nytimes.com/1994/05/22/magazine/on-language-the-near-abroad.html
3
. For an overview of Russia’s historical engagement in East Asia, see: Chris Miller, We Shall Be Masters:
Russian Pivots to East Asia from Peter the Great to Putin (Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press, 2021).
4
. For further explanation of the concept, see: Lilia Shevtsova, Putin’s Russia (Washington DC: Carnegie
Endowment for International Peace, 2005), 7.
JANUS.NET, e-journal of International Relations
e-ISSN: 1647-7251
VOL. 16, Nº. 2
November 2025-April 2026, pp. 180-201
Russia's turn to the East: analysing the Drivers of Moscow's Foreign Policy Towards the Asia-
Pacific Region since 1991
Mónica Román González
183
Nevertheless, it is important to note that Moscow’s international strategies are also
shaped by the existence of differing schools of thought, namely the Westernizers, the
Eurasianists, the Nationalists or the Slavophiles (Kotz and Weir 2007, 285-86).
All these aspects should therefore be considered when analysing the evolution of Russian
Foreign Policy towards the Asia-Pacific region. This background information is essential
for understanding why the Kremlin initially displayed indifference towards the area during
the first half of the 1990s under the pro-Western Foreign Minister Andrey Kozyrev, before
Yevgeny Primakov relaunched Russia-Asia relations. Similarly, throughout the 21st
century, Vladimir Putin has made strengthening ties with Southeast Asian countries a
foreign policy priority. This was part of an effort to re-establish derzhavnost
(Державность)
5
. This term refers to regaining the great power status and influence lost
after the Soviet Union’s collapse.
At the same time, this evolution has been shaped by a range of factors, whose relative
importance has shifted due to changes in the international system and in response to
specific events. The fact that researchers have often analysed these factors in isolation
has limited previous evaluations of Russian strategy in the Asia-Pacific region.
Considering the current state of research, this article seeks to analyse Russian foreign
policy towards the region to explain why enhancing its presence there has become a key
priority within Moscow’s current multi-vector foreign policy.
Accordingly, this article is structured in three main sections. It begins by tracing the
evolution of the Russian Federation’s approach to the Asia-Pacific region since 1991. The
second section explores Russia’s economic interests in the region, focusing on trade,
foreign direct investment, and the development of the Russian Far East. The final section
addresses Russia’s security concerns in the area, from ongoing territorial disputes with
regional nations, such as Japan, to contemporary regional tensions. Each section is
supported by contextual background information reflecting how global dynamics have
influenced the development of these policies. The conclusion will examine the interaction
between domestic and systemic factors that have shaped Russian foreign policy towards
the Asia-Pacific region. These systemic factors emerge from the international system
itself.
2. Methodology
To analyse Russian foreign policy towards the Asia-Pacific region and highlighting the
main elements that have shaped its evolution, a mixed-methods approach has been
adopted. Mixed methods research is an approach in the social sciences. It involves
collecting both quantitative and qualitative data. By combining the strengths of both, the
researcher can draw more robust conclusions and gain a comprehensive understanding
of the research problem (Creswell 2015, 2). Given the nature of the phenomenon
5
The concept “derzhavnost”, which refers to Russia’s sense of ‘Greatpowerness’, is considered the major
component of the predominant geopolitical worldview in the country despite the existing debate. For a
balanced discussion of the meaning of the concept, see: Bobo Lo, “Recasting the ideological debate”, in
Russian Foreign Policy Making in the Post-Soviet Era – Reality, Illusion and Mythmaking, ed. by Bobo Lo
(Basingstoke and New York: Palgrave 2002), 52-56.
JANUS.NET, e-journal of International Relations
e-ISSN: 1647-7251
VOL. 16, Nº. 2
November 2025-April 2026, pp. 180-201
Russia's turn to the East: analysing the Drivers of Moscow's Foreign Policy Towards the Asia-
Pacific Region since 1991
Mónica Román González
184
analysed in this article, this approach offers deeper insights than either form of data
alone.
Qualitative data were gathered through an extensive literature and documentary review.
On the one hand, the literature review was based on books written, as well as academic
articles published by institutions specializing in Russian foreign policy and Asia-Pacific
studies. On the other hand, the documentary review analysed official sources such as
legislation or government documents (e.g., Foreign Policy Concepts, Energy Strategies
or National Security Strategies of the Russian Federation), speeches relevant to the study
(e.g., speeches of Presidents or Ministers of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation),
and official reports from relevant organizations.
To determine whether relationships between variables exist, quantitative data (e.g.,
investment and trade data) were compiled and analysed. These data were obtained from
national datasets (e.g., data from the Bank of Russia and the Russian Federal State
Statistics Service, also known as Rosstat), regional datasets from the Asia-Pacific region
(e.g., data from the Association of Southeast Asian Nations, the Asia-Pacific Economic
Cooperation and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization) and international datasets
(e.g., data from the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute or the United
Nations Commodity Trade Statistics Database also known as UN Comtrade).
To integrate these two strands, this research employed a sequential explanatory design.
The analysis was conducted in two main phases. The process began with the qualitative
analysis of documentary sources and academic literature. This initial phase was crucial
for building a theoretical framework and identifying key historical turning points, strategic
concepts, and the dominant narratives within Russian foreign policy discourse over time.
The insights gained from this qualitative review then guided the quantitative data
collection phase. For instance, the qualitative identification of the post-2014 “Russia’s
Turn to the East” as a critical juncture prompted a targeted collection of trade and
investment statistics from that specific period to measure the economic dimension of this
strategic shift. This sequential process ensured that the quantitative data was not
collected in a vacuum but was instead used to explore and verify the patterns identified
in the initial qualitative stage.
Finally, the two types of data were synthesized through triangulation to cross-validate
the findings. Quantitative data, such as the increase in arms sales to Asian nations or the
growth in trade with APEC, were used to substantiate and provide empirical weight to
the qualitative arguments derived from official policy documents and academic literature.
This approach ensures that the article’s conclusions are not only supported by policy
discourse but are also reflected in measurable trends, thereby enhancing the overall
validity of the analysis.
To clearly present the findings of this mixed methods research and the various forms of
data used, the results of the information analysed are also presented in charts (e.g., bar
charts, line charts or pie charts), tables, and illustrative quotations where appropriate.
JANUS.NET, e-journal of International Relations
e-ISSN: 1647-7251
VOL. 16, Nº. 2
November 2025-April 2026, pp. 180-201
Russia's turn to the East: analysing the Drivers of Moscow's Foreign Policy Towards the Asia-
Pacific Region since 1991
Mónica Román González
185
3. The Evolution of the Asia-Pacific Region’s Importance to the Russian
Federation
The volatility of the international environment, along with the wide variety of policies
implemented by the different governments that have led the country since 1991, has
influenced not only the evolution of Russian foreign policy, but also Moscow’s attitude
towards the Asia-Pacific region. For an efficient identification of the most relevant
changes in the Kremlin’s behaviour towards Southeast Asia, an examination of the
Foreign Policy Concepts of the Russian Federation approved to date is required. These
official documents outline Russia’s regional and thematic priorities, providing brief
explanations of the key milestones that justified the formulation and intended
implementation of each strategy.
Since the 'vertical of power' and the multidimensionality of Russian foreign policy
discourse also play a crucial role, this section includes this section includes relevant
background information beyond what is stated in the official documents. This context is
essential for understanding the development of Russia’s foreign policy decision-making
during the administrations of Boris Yeltsin (1991-1999), Vladimir Putin (2000-2008),
Dmitry Medvedev (2008-2012), and Putin’s current government since his re-election in
2012.
3.1 Russian Foreign Policy in the 1990s: Boris Yeltsin’s Government
(1991-1999)
Following its emergence as an independent state in 1991, the Russian Federation entered
a period of crisis as a result of the dissolution of the Soviet Union and the consequent
loss of its status as a global superpower. In such a fragile and transitional context,
Moscow's main priority was to stabilise the country's situation in order to avoid economic
collapse and maintain its privileged position over the former Soviet republics (Amirov
1999, 275).
To address this situation, the Kremlin adopted the so-called “Kozyrev Doctrine”, named
after its Minister of Foreign Affairs, Andrey Kozyrev. This new policy aimed at achieving
full integration with the West, with the goal of restoring the desired social and economic
stability. For this purpose, the strategy implied the recognition of a unipolar order of the
international system under the hegemony of the United States, since obtaining
international support was an essential condition for the survival of the country (Kozyrev
2005, 196-97).
Consequently, Russian interest in the Asia-Pacific region was limited during those years.
As stated in the Foreign Policy Concept of the Russian Federation approved during this
period in 1993 —where only three Asian countries were considered important (China,
India, and Japan)— Russia merely perceived the region as a partner in its transformation,
which was required across all levels:
Acquiring a firm position in the Asia-Pacific Region, which has been rapidly transforming
itself into a center of world politics and economy, comparable to the Atlantic region,
would promote Russia’s domestic reforms, enhance Russia’s influence over the general
JANUS.NET, e-journal of International Relations
e-ISSN: 1647-7251
VOL. 16, Nº. 2
November 2025-April 2026, pp. 180-201
Russia's turn to the East: analysing the Drivers of Moscow's Foreign Policy Towards the Asia-
Pacific Region since 1991
Mónica Román González
186
political and economic developments in the world, and help fulfill its unique Euro-Asian
potential (Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation 1993).
The pro-Western orientation of this foreign policy provoked fierce opposition from
Nationalist and Eurasianist sectors, ultimately leading to Kozyrev's dismissal in 1996.
Unlike his predecessor, the new Minister, Yevgeny Primakov, would radically shift Russian
foreign policy with the introduction of the so-called “Primakov Doctrine”. This new
strategy advocated for a more active foreign policy across multiple geographic areas. Its
goal was to counterbalance American hegemony. Primakov perceived this hegemony as
a threat to Russia’s security, believing Washington intended to prevent Moscow from
playing a significant role in the emerging multipolar order (Primakov 1996, 3-13).
Hence, there are two key elements of this doctrine that remain embedded in
contemporary Russian Foreign Policy: multivectoralism and multipolarity. On the one
hand, multivectorialism provides Moscow a strategical diversification of partnerships with
the post-Soviet space as the main regional priority. On the other hand, aware of its
limitations in directly confronting the United States, Russia advocates the creation of a
multipolar world in which it can reassert itself as a major global actor. This explains
Russia's interest in forging strategic alliances with emerging powers in the international
system such as China or India. This is what Primakov referred to as the creation of a
“Strategic Triangle” to counterbalance Western powers, which would provide Russia with
the necessary partners to regain influence (Leichtova 2016, 23) (Mankoff 2009, 201). As
an example of this, the signing of the Russian-Chinese Joint Declaration on a Multipolar
World and the Establishment of a New World Order in 1997 can be highlighted
6
.
At the same time, Russian participation in regional integration processes in Asia-Pacific
started during Primakov’s presence in the Ministry of Foreign Affairs. In 1991, Russia
established formal relations with the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN),
becoming a dialogue partner five years later. Regarded by the Kremlin as a useful
mechanism for balancing power dynamics in the international system, ASEAN has
increasingly been used by Moscow to revitalise its engagement with regional countries
(Trenin 2014, 122).
Also in 1996, Russia co-founded the Shanghai Five alongside China, Kazakhstan,
Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan. The Shanghai Five was later renamed the Shanghai
Cooperation Organization (SCO) following its membership expansion in 2001. Although
regional security cooperation has remained the institution’s primary strength since its
inception, its agenda has expanded to include other areas —such as the energy sector—
demonstrating the SCO’s crucial role in Moscow’s progress towards its goal of becoming
a key regional player (Alonso Marcos and Nurimbetov 2021, 1-13).
To achieve fuller integration in such a developed region, Russia also joined its principal
financial institution by becoming a member of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation
(APEC) in 1998. Beyond trade and investment openness, Russia’s participation in APEC
reflects both its economic needs and its desire to position itself as a fully integrated actor
within the global economy (Dueñas Pulido 2003, 28-29).
6
. For more information about the Joint Declaration, see the full document: “Russian-Chinese Joint
Declaration on a Multipolar World and the Establishment of a New International Order”, United Nations Digital
Library, April 23, 1997, https://digitallibrary.un.org/record/234074?ln=es
JANUS.NET, e-journal of International Relations
e-ISSN: 1647-7251
VOL. 16, Nº. 2
November 2025-April 2026, pp. 180-201
Russia's turn to the East: analysing the Drivers of Moscow's Foreign Policy Towards the Asia-
Pacific Region since 1991
Mónica Román González
187
3.2 Russian Foreign Policy in the 21st Century: Vladimir Putin and Dmitry
Medvedev
Although both Vladimir Putin and Dmitry Medvedev encouraged cooperation with the
West in combating shared threats during their presidencies, they consistently showed
reluctance to build a partnership based on shared values and institutions with Western
countries (Stent 2005, 272) (Trenin 2006, 87-96). As a result, the legacy of Primakov’s
multivector foreign policy —and the accompanying interest in the Asia-Pacific region—
was preserved and even strengthened following Vladimir Putin’s rise to power in 2000.
During the early years of his presidency, Putin pursued a pragmatic foreign policy focused
primarily on economic growth and national security, given the backdrop of domestic
instability and the growing threat of terrorism. In this context, securing cooperation with
as many international partners as possible was essential (Donaldson, Nogee, and
Nadkarni 2014, 369-70) (Tsygankov 2016, 138-39). Regarding the eastern vector, the
Foreign Policy Concept adopted in 2000 stated that Russian foreign policy was “aimed at
building up the positive dynamism of relations with the states of South East Asia”.
Achieving this objective required active Russian participation in the main regional
integration institutions mentioned above, as well as the strengthening of bilateral ties
with countries such as China, India, Japan, and South Korea (Ministry of Foreign Affairs
of the Russian Federation 2000).
However, Russian Foreign Policy became increasingly assertive during the second half of
the decade, especially as a consequence of Western support to the “Colour Revolutions”
7
that took place in Georgia, Ukraine, and Kyrgyzstan between 2003 and 2005 (Donaldson,
Nogee and Nadkarni 2014, 283-84) (Tsygankov 2016, 177-78). As Putin's speech at the
2007 Munich Conference demonstrates, Moscow began openly accusing the United States
of unilateralism and reclaiming its role as a global power in the emerging international
order. At the same time, China’s rise led to a further intensification of Russian efforts
towards the Asia-Pacific region, which steadily gained importance in both political and
economic terms (Molchanov 2015, 52-53) (Sergunin 2016, 157).
In 2008, Dmitry Medvedev assumed the presidency and approved a new Foreign Policy
Concept. In this updated document, alongside the continued emphasis on strengthening
bilateral ties with key regional states such as China, Japan, and India, additional
Southeast Asian countries —including Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, the Philippines, and
Singapore— were identified as strategic partners. As it was established:
In the context of the Russian Federation's multi-vector foreign policy, the Asia–Pacific
Region has important and ever-increasing significance, which is due to Russia's belonging
to this dynamically developing region of the world, its interest in tapping its potential for
the realization of programs aimed at economic development of Siberia and the Far East,
the need for strengthening regional cooperation in the field of countering terrorism,
7
. The concept “Colour Revolutions” is used to refer to the protests occurred in some former Soviet Union
states to topple its authoritarian regimes during the 2000s like Georgia in 2003 with the Rose Revolution,
Ukraine in 2004 with the Orange Revolution, and Kyrgyzstan in 2005 with the Tulip Revolution – For a further
explanation, see Lincoln A. Mitchell, The Color Revolutions, (Philadelphia: University of Pennsylvania Press,
2012).
JANUS.NET, e-journal of International Relations
e-ISSN: 1647-7251
VOL. 16, Nº. 2
November 2025-April 2026, pp. 180-201
Russia's turn to the East: analysing the Drivers of Moscow's Foreign Policy Towards the Asia-
Pacific Region since 1991
Mónica Román González
188
ensuring security and maintaining a dialogue between civilizations (Ministry of Foreign
Affairs of the Russian Federation 2008)
During the 2008-2012 term, Medvedev faced an international context marked by growing
rivalry between Moscow and Washington which was fuelled by Russian invasion of
Georgia, the Kremlin rejection of Kosovo’s Declaration of Independence, and NATO’s
proposal to eventually admit Kyiv and Tbilisi into the alliance (Donaldson, Nogee and
Nadkarni 2014, 395-96). Several factors led Russia to increasingly view the Asia-Pacific
as the new centre of global power. These included the severity of the global financial
crisis, known as “The Great Recession,” and the relative strength of Southeast Asian
economies. This stood in contrast to the signs of weakness shown by Western economies
(Østevik and Kuhrt 2018, 78). This situation was reflected in the Foreign Policy Concept
approved by Putin in 2013, one year after his return to office:
The ability of the West to dominate world economy and politics continues to diminish.
The global power and development potential is now more dispersed and is shifting to the
East, primarily to the Asia-Pacific region. The emergence of new global economic and
political actors with Western countries trying to preserve their traditional positions
enhances global competition, which is manifested in growing instability in international
relations (Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation 2013)
This shift formed an integral part of Russia’s renewed global strategy, which aimed to
position the country as a Eurasian power through closer cooperation with Asia:
Strengthening Russia’s presence in the Asia-Pacific region (APR) is becoming increasingly
important since Russia is an integral part of this fastest-developing geopolitical zone,
toward which the center of world economy and politics is gradually shifting. Russia is
interested in participating actively in APR integration processes, using the possibilities
offered by the APR to implement programs meant to boost Siberian and Far Eastern
economy, creating a transparent and equitable security architecture in the APR and
cooperation on a collective basis (Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation
2013)
Examples of this shift include Russia’s initiative to establish financial institutions such as
the BRICS New Development Bank in 2014, the national creation of the Eastern Economic
Forum (EEF), and the country’s accession to the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank
(AIIB) in 2015 (Korolev 2016, 59). As a result of the new strategy adopted in this context,
Moscow sought to reassert its derzhavnost —the notion of great power status— and
reclaim what the Kremlin perceives as “its deserved place in the world”, regardless of
potential consequences. In line with this ambition, the Russian Federation annexed
Crimea in 2014 and intervened militarily in the Syrian Civil War in 2015, citing the need
to counterbalance what it viewed as the dominance imposed by the United States and its
Western allies in global affairs (Tsygankov 2018, 241-43) (Forsberg 2018, 329). This
assertiveness was complemented by a narrative aimed at Southeast Asian nations,
framing Russia’s pivot not merely as a pragmatic choice but as the embrace of a Eurasian
identity that offered an alternative to the Western-led global order (Tsvetov 2016, 55-
56).
As stated in the Foreign Policy Concept of 2016, the “new world” was defined as a world
where a multipolar international structure was emerging and where “global power was
JANUS.NET, e-journal of International Relations
e-ISSN: 1647-7251
VOL. 16, Nº. 2
November 2025-April 2026, pp. 180-201
Russia's turn to the East: analysing the Drivers of Moscow's Foreign Policy Towards the Asia-
Pacific Region since 1991
Mónica Román González
189
shifting towards the Asia-Pacific region eroding the global economic and political
dominance of the traditional western powers” (Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Russian
Federation 2016). In this context, Russia opted to maintain its strategy and intensify its
engagement with the Asian region:
Russia views strengthening its positions in the Asia-Pacific Region and stepping up
relations with its States as a foreign policy area of strategic importance, which is
attributable to Russia belonging to this vibrant geopolitical region. Russia is interested in
participating proactively in the integration processes in Asia-Pacific, using the possibilities
it offers to implement socioeconomic development programmes in Russia’s Siberia and
Far East, and creating an inclusive, open, transparent and equitable collective security
and cooperation architecture in Asia-Pacific (Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Russian
Federation 2016)
As an illustration of the implementation of this policy, it is noteworthy that President
Putin attended the 13th East Asia Summit, held in Singapore in 2018. This marked the
first time a President of the Russian Federation personally participated in the plenary
session of the regional forum since Russia’s accession in 2005
8
.
Currently, Russia’s decision to launch a full-scale invasion of Ukraine despite foreseeable
consequences makes clearer that the Kremlin’s implementation of the mentioned
strategy has continued so far. In fact, expanding its presence in the Asia-Pacific region
and strengthening ties with regional states is not only of paramount importance to
Russia, but it can now be also considered a strategic necessity. Following the adoption of
the new Foreign Policy Concept in March 2023, it is likely that Moscow will continue to
intensify its efforts in the region as part of a broader attempt to pivot away from Europe
and contribute to shaping a new world order:
A comprehensive deepening of ties and enhancement of coordination with friendly
sovereign global centres of power and development, which are located on the Eurasian
continent and committed to approaches which coincide in principle with the Russian
approaches to a future world order and solutions for key problems of the world politics,
is particularly important for achieving strategic goals and major objectives of the foreign
policy of the Russian Federation (Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation
2023)
4. Russian Economic Interests in the Asia-Pacific Region
As previously mentioned, the firm economic growth experienced by Southeast Asian
states in recent years is one of the most significant events that have influenced
international relations in the 21st century. Therefore, Moscow has several interests at
stake in such an attractive economic market. Considering the available data, it can be
observed that both Russian exports to Asia-Pacific countries and imports from such
nations have progressively increased, contrasting with the declining trade trend observed
8
About Putin’s attendance to the East Asia Summit, see “East Asia Summit: Vladimir Putin attended the
plenary session of the 13th East Asia Summit (EAS)”, President of Russia, November 15, 2018,
http://en.kremlin.ru/catalog/countries/SG/events/59128
JANUS.NET, e-journal of International Relations
e-ISSN: 1647-7251
VOL. 16, Nº. 2
November 2025-April 2026, pp. 180-201
Russia's turn to the East: analysing the Drivers of Moscow's Foreign Policy Towards the Asia-
Pacific Region since 1991
Mónica Román González
190
with Western partners. In addition, data reveal that China, Japan, and Korea are Russia’s
most important trading partners in the region (see Table 4.1).
Table 1. Share of the Russian Federation’s Exports and Imports by Main Partners in the Asia-
Pacific Region and the West (%)
Russian exports
Russian imports
2000
2010
2015
2020
2000
2010
2015
2020
China
5,1
5,1
5,3
14,6
2,8
17,0
19,1
23,7
Korea
0,9
2,6
3,9
3,7
1,1
3,2
2,5
3,1
Japan
2,7
3,2
4,2
2,7
1,7
4,5
3,7
3,1
Germany
9,0
6,3
7,4
5,5
11,5
11,7
11,2
10,1
Italy
7,0
6,9
6,5
3,0
3,6
4,4
4,5
4,4
The Netherlands
4,2
13,6
11,9
7,4
2,2
1,9
1,7
1,6
APEC
15,1
16,9
22,8
27,9
16,1
34,1
37,9
42,4
Eurozone
35,8
53,5
52,0
33,7
32,9
41,7
41,3
34,0
Sources:
Data from Russian Federal State Statistics Service, Rossiiskii Statisticheskii Ezhegodnik 2017
[Russian Statistical Yearbook], (Moscow: Federal State Statistics Service - Rosstat, 2017), 223-
224, https://rosstat.gov.ru/storage/mediabank/torg17.pdf
Data from Russian Federal State Statistics Service, Rossiiskii Statisticheskii Ezhegodnik 2022
[Russian Statistical Yearbook], (Moscow: Federal State Statistics Service - Rosstat, 2022), 587,
https://rosstat.gov.ru/storage/mediabank/Ejegodnik_2022.pdf
At the multilateral level, Russian trade with APEC experienced significant growth in the
early 2010s, largely as a consequence of the aforementioned “Great Recession” (see
Chart 4.1). In contrast, trade between Russia and ASEAN peaked in 2014, coinciding with
the deterioration of Moscow’s relations with Western countries after the annexation of
Crimea and the military intervention in territories of Eastern Ukraine (see Chart 4.2).
However, despite this growth, experts note that Russia's overall economic footprint in
the region remains modest, limiting its ability to build influence through trade and
investment when compared to established economic powers like China, Japan, or the
United States (Rangsimaporn 2012, 326).
JANUS.NET, e-journal of International Relations
e-ISSN: 1647-7251
VOL. 16, Nº. 2
November 2025-April 2026, pp. 180-201
Russia's turn to the East: analysing the Drivers of Moscow's Foreign Policy Towards the Asia-
Pacific Region since 1991
Mónica Román González
191
Chart 1. Evolution of Russian trade with APEC (in USD millions)
Sources: Data from Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation, “StatsAPEC: Bilateral Linkages Database”.
Accessed October 15, 2023, http://statistics.apec.org/index.php/bilateral_linkage/bld_result/37
Chart 2. Evolution of Russian trade with ASEAN (2010-2020) (in USD millions)
Sources: Data from United Nations Commodity Trade Statistics Database, “Free access to
detailed global trade data”. Accessed October 15, 2023, https://comtradeplus.un.org/
On the other hand, Moscow has a keen interest in promoting its arms sales in a region
where military modernization efforts currently predominate. Considering the data
provided by the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), Russia has
been by far Southeast Asia’s largest arms supplier over the past 20 years, with several
states in the region heavily reliant on Russian weaponry (see Table 4.2). At the same
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
Russian exports to APEC countries Russian imports from APEC countries
JANUS.NET, e-journal of International Relations
e-ISSN: 1647-7251
VOL. 16, Nº. 2
November 2025-April 2026, pp. 180-201
Russia's turn to the East: analysing the Drivers of Moscow's Foreign Policy Towards the Asia-
Pacific Region since 1991
Mónica Román González
192
time, alongside Egypt and Algeria, three Asian countries rank among the top foreign
customers of Russian weapons: India, China, and Vietnam (see Chart 4.3).
Table 2. Arms Imports from Russia by Southeast Asian Countries (2000-2022) (in USD millions)
Total arm imports in
millions (2000–2022)
Arm imports from
Russia (2000–2022)
% imports from
Russia
North Korea
93
93
100%
Vietnam
8168
6607
81%
China
40827
32487
80%
India
61304
39479
64%
Laos
269
130
48%
Myanmar
4529
1962
43%
Malaysia
4401
1274
29%
Indonesia
7906
1147
15%
Sources: Data from Stockholm International Peace Research Institute. “SIPRI Arms Transfers
Database”. Accessed October 15, 2023, https://doi.org/10.55163/SAFC1241
Chart 3. Main Destinations of Russian Arms Exports in the 21st Century (2000-2022) (in USD
millions)
Sources: Data from Stockholm International Peace Research Institute. “SIPRI Arms Transfers
Database”. Accessed October 15, 2023, https://doi.org/10.55163/SAFC1241
Nevertheless, the main opportunity for Russia to project itself as a major player in the
region lies in the energy field. As one of the largest energy suppliers in the world, Moscow
0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 30000 35000 40000 45000
India (1º)
China (2º)
Algeria (3º)
Vietnam (4º)
Egypt (5º)
JANUS.NET, e-journal of International Relations
e-ISSN: 1647-7251
VOL. 16, Nº. 2
November 2025-April 2026, pp. 180-201
Russia's turn to the East: analysing the Drivers of Moscow's Foreign Policy Towards the Asia-
Pacific Region since 1991
Mónica Román González
193
finds in the Asia-Pacific region a key market, especially following the measures adopted
by the European Union (EU) to reduce its reliance on Russian oil and gas. In 2009, the
Energy Strategy of Russia for the period up to 2030 set the objective of increasing oil
and gas exports to Southeast Asia to 25% and 20%, respectively (Ministry of Energy of
the Russian Federation 2010). Currently, the goal set by the existing Energy Strategy of
the Russian Federation for the period up to 2035, approved in 2020, has raised that
target to 50% for both resources (Government of the Russian Federation
2020).
To achieve these aims, Russia has launched several projects such as the Eastern Siberia-
Pacific Ocean oil pipeline —which exports crude oil to the Asian Pacific markets of China,
Japan, and Korea—, the Sakhalin I and II projects —to export oil and liquefied gas to a
wide range of countries— and the Power of Siberia pipeline —which allows Russia to
deliver gas to China—. Regarding the latter, although negotiations between Moscow and
Beijing had taken place for years, it was not until 2014 that both parties signed the
agreement for the construction of the pipeline. Moscow’s willingness to meet Beijing’s
terms was largely due to the deterioration of its relations with the West, combined with
other factors such as the shale gas revolution, the EU’s Third Energy Package, and the
emergence of liquefied natural gas producers (Ruiz González 2014, 16).
To develop these projects, major structural reforms are required in eastern parts of the
Russian Federation. In 2013, Putin declared the modernization of the Russian Far East—
a region bordering the Asia-Pacific whose underdevelopment poses a severe threat to
Moscow—a national priority. Due to the urgency of the matter, attracting investment
from Southeast Asian states is viewed as the fastest solution (Mankoff 2009, 67-71). For
this reason, the Kremlin’s main efforts have focused on promoting cooperation between
the Russian Far East and the Asia-Pacific region, as it is shown by the continuous launch
of “Development of the Far East and Baikal Region” plans and funding mechanisms, the
creation of the Ministry for the Development of the Far East, and the annual celebration
of the Eastern Economic Forum in Vladivostok—a Russian city that hosted the APEC
summit in 2012— (Korolev 2016, 53-63).
Chart 4. Foreign Direct Investment Flows into the Russian Federation by Regional and Global
Institutions (2011-2021) (in USD millions)
Sources: Data from Bank of Russia, “Statistics: Flows by Geographical and Economic Areas”,
2023. Accessed October 15, 2023, https://www.cbr.ru/eng/statistics/
0 50000 100000 150000 200000 250000
OECD
EU
G20
APEC
ASEAN
ACP
EFTA
CIS
OECD-EC
BRICS
JANUS.NET, e-journal of International Relations
e-ISSN: 1647-7251
VOL. 16, Nº. 2
November 2025-April 2026, pp. 180-201
Russia's turn to the East: analysing the Drivers of Moscow's Foreign Policy Towards the Asia-
Pacific Region since 1991
Mónica Román González
194
Chart 5. Foreign Direct Investment Flows into the Russian Federation from Asia, by Country
(2011-2021) (in USD millions)
Sources: Data from Bank of Russia, “Statistics: Flows by Geographical and Economic Areas”,
2023. Accessed October 15, 2023, https://www.cbr.ru/eng/statistics/
5. Russian Security Concerns in the Asia-Pacific Region
In its early years as an independent state, the Russian Federation identified in the Asia-
Pacific region some elements of relevance in terms of security: territorial disputes with
Japan, the persistent presence of the United States in the area, the rise of China, the
nuclearization of South Asia, India’s intransigence on nuclear non-proliferation and arms
control issues, and the importance of the region in the fight against terrorism and drug
trafficking (Baranovsky 1999, 25-31) (Azizian 2007, 25-26). Many of these concerns
remain relevant today.
Disputes over the Sakhalin and Kuril Islands—known in Japan as the Northern
Territories—continue despite ongoing peace talks and dialogue mechanisms between
Moscow and Tokyo. For the Kremlin, these territories have gained strategic significance
due to shifting power dynamics in the Asia-Pacific region. Beyond Russia’s distrust of one
of the United States key regional allies, these enclaves secure Russian access to the Sea
of Okhotsk and the Kamchatka Peninsula, where several military bases are located
(Hamzah, Esmael and Abbas 2020, 294-99). The large-scale Russian invasion of Ukraine
has further complicated prospects for any agreement.
As reflected in nearly every Foreign Policy Concept of the Russian Federation to date, one
of the permanent security concerns for the Kremlin in the region is the Korean issue.
Beyond the importance of avoiding a conventional conflict and instability in the region,
the situation provides Moscow with an opportunity to position itself as a constructive
player in regional security-building and enhance its international standing (Lo 2019, 11-
12). However, Russia’s role as mediator is constrained by its lack of impartiality, owing
to historical ties with Pyongyang dating back to the Soviet era, recently strengthened
relations amid shared international isolation, and the Seoul-Washington alliance.
JANUS.NET, e-journal of International Relations
e-ISSN: 1647-7251
VOL. 16, Nº. 2
November 2025-April 2026, pp. 180-201
Russia's turn to the East: analysing the Drivers of Moscow's Foreign Policy Towards the Asia-
Pacific Region since 1991
Mónica Román González
195
Another significant Russian security concern is Washington’s presence in the region,
particularly following the prioritization of the Indo-Pacific strategy in U.S. foreign policy
as a response to China’s rise as both a regional and global power. A clear illustration of
this is Russia's rejection of the Indo-Pacific concept, described by Moscow as a Western
containment strategy against China in an attempt to divide the Asia-Pacific region into
opposing blocs reminiscent of those during the Cold War (Melvin 2021, 3-4). As pointed
out by current Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov in 2020 at the Raisina Dialogue:
A new concept was coined: Indo-Pacific strategies. Not Asia-Pacific but Indo-Pacific
strategies. Initiated and promoted first of all by the United States, Australia, Japan,
Republic of Korea. When we asked the initiators about the difference between Indo-Pacific
strategies, and Asia-Pacific Regional Cooperation, they said, “Well, Indo-Pacific is more
open, more democratic.” If you look at it closely, I wouldn’t go into the details, it is not
at all the case. It’s an attempt, I think, to reconfigure the existing structures in Asia-
Pacific region. And to move from ASEAN-centred consensus seeking forms of interaction,
to something which would be divisive” (Lavrov, 2020)
Consequently, the Indo-Pacific concept and the resulting Quad security format would not
only divert Asia’s future away from Eurasia—where Moscow plays a central role—but
would also lead to a regional order centred around Washington and its allies, thereby
weakening Russia’s ambitions to pivot to a region where its influence would likely be
marginal (Melvin 2021, 11-12).
Apart from safeguarding its interests and countering U.S. power, Russia's negative
perception of the Indo-Pacific concept is also a result of its growing dependence on China.
Indeed, Moscow’s partnership with Beijing is crucial for its foreign policy as it enhances
Russia’s status on the global stage, making its Asia-Pacific policy almost an extension of
its relationship with its neighbour. Consequently, Russia follows China's lead on key
issues where Beijing's interests are at stake, such as the Belt and Road Initiative, the
South China Sea dispute, and tensions surrounding Taiwan (Lo 2019, 6-7).
However, Sino-Russian relations have experienced alternating periods of harmony and
conflict, including the Sino-Soviet split during the second half of the last century, which
has left a legacy of mistrust between the two countries due to the wide common border
and their geostrategic ambitions. In this respect, there are several Russian concerns like
Chinese demographic pressure on the Russian Far East or the growing rivalry between
both states in areas like the Arctic and Central Asia (Pardo de Santayana 2020, 159).
Despite these challenges, both sides decided to set aside their differences to achieve
their common goal of counterbalancing U.S. influence in the international arena. Thus,
the strategic partnership between China and Russia would be better described as a
momentary axis of convenience rather than a formal alliance.
For all these reasons, in 2010 the Ministry of Defence of the Russian Federation
established the Joint Strategic Command OSK East —also known as the Eastern Military
District (EMD)— by merging the Siberian Military District and the Far Eastern Military
District with the Pacific Fleet. Following this decision, the number of large-scale military
drills conducted by Moscow in the region has increased significantly (Weitz 2019, 917-
19). To maintain strategic deterrence in the area, this permanent military presence is
tasked with guarding the disputed Kuril Islands and securing the land borders critical to
JANUS.NET, e-journal of International Relations
e-ISSN: 1647-7251
VOL. 16, Nº. 2
November 2025-April 2026, pp. 180-201
Russia's turn to the East: analysing the Drivers of Moscow's Foreign Policy Towards the Asia-
Pacific Region since 1991
Mónica Román González
196
the Kremlin’s desired control over the Russian Far East (Rumer, Sokolsky and Vladicic
2020, 15-19).
Conclusion
In conclusion, a confluence of several factors has turned the Asia-Pacific region into a
key vector within the multi-vector foreign policy of the Russian Federation. The Kremlin
views the region as a strategic enclave as it offers a wide array of political, economic,
and security-related advantages that have grown in significance as a result of various
international developments.
At the political level, the Asia-Pacific region is extremely important for Russia in achieving
its ultimate foreign policy objective: regaining a prominent role in the international
system at the expense of the West in general, and the United States in particular. For
this purpose, aware of its inability to confront US hegemony directly, Moscow considers
the establishment of a multipolar world order essential to restoring Russian derzhavnost.
The rise of Southeast Asian countries and the resulting reconfiguration of the
international order present a clear opportunity for this objective to be pursued.
Furthermore, Russia's strategy in the region could be summed up by its rejection of the
Indo-Pacific concept due to its perception as a Western containment strategy against
China. Beijing is Moscow's main partner. However, historical mistrust between the two
neighbours remains. Consequently, the Kremlin views the Asia-Pacific region as an
opportunity to retain strategic flexibility. This flexibility is essential for Russia to promote
itself as a major player, even as cooperation with China continues to be the foundation
of its regional policy.
To achieve diversification, Russia faces several disadvantages such as its limited historical
presence in the region in comparison with China or the United States. This is also
aggravated by the hostility of the latter two countries towards Moscow’s presence in the
region and their capacity to influence local countries. Therefore, Russian participation in
the Asia-Pacific multilateral framework could strengthen its position not only in a region
that is widely accepted as the centre of geopolitical shift, but also on the international
stage. While APEC and ASEAN may be more helpful for Moscow to develop ties with Asia-
Pacific nations due to the importance of the economic factor, the SCO is also essential to
promote its interests. Hence, a multilateral approach in Russian Foreign Policy towards
the region is expected to continue.
At the economic level, beyond the importance of the region as a source of investment for
the needed development of the Russian Far East, the Asia-Pacific region represents a
major market at a time when it is essential for Moscow to diversify its customer base.
Regarding arms trade, although the war in Ukraine has undermined Russia’s reputation
as a reliable supplier, Russia still retains opportunities to maintain key clients like
Vietnam—a country where Western states are reluctant to sell arms and where China is
not perceived as an acceptable supplier. It may also find opportunities with India, whose
preference for strategic partnerships over formal alliances also offers Moscow a chance
to achieve the diversification and try to counterbalance Beijing’s influence. On the other
hand, regarding energy trade, the significance of the Asia-Pacific has grown substantially
JANUS.NET, e-journal of International Relations
e-ISSN: 1647-7251
VOL. 16, Nº. 2
November 2025-April 2026, pp. 180-201
Russia's turn to the East: analysing the Drivers of Moscow's Foreign Policy Towards the Asia-
Pacific Region since 1991
Mónica Román González
197
for Russia considering its increasing international isolation and the pressing need to find
alternatives to Western markets. The region offers a viable solution to offset the decline
in energy exports to Europe, particularly in oil and natural gas.
Regarding security and defence, aside from the importance of maintaining stability in one
of its immediate neighbourhoods, the Asia-Pacific region is of particular interest to Russia
due to territorial disputes with Japan over the Sakhalin and Kuril Islands, as well as the
threat posed to Russian national security by the deteriorating situation in the Russian Far
East. These concerns are further heightened by two major geopolitical dynamics: the rise
of China and the persistent military presence of the United States in the region. Other
minor but significant security concerns of the Russian Federation in the Asia-Pacific region
that have persisted during these decades are the Korean issue and the South Asia’s
nuclear challenges, both of which have consistently influenced the formulation of Russia’s
defence policy in the region over the past decades.
To conclude, although Russia's interest in the region is the result of a gradual process, it
is evident that this interest has intensified because of some developments at the
international level. While at the economic level the importance of the region increased in
the 2010s due to the effects of “The Great Recession” and the deterioration of Russian-
Western relations as a result of the invasion of Ukraine in 2014, at the security level it
has gained significant importance since the adoption of Indo-Pacific strategies and the
fact that many powerful international actors like China and the U.S.A are increasing their
presence in the region.
In a prospective analysis, considering Moscow’s isolation because of the large-scale
invasion of Ukraine started in 2022 and the enduring strategic weight of the Asia-Pacific,
a region from which no global power can afford to be absent, it is foreseeable that Russian
efforts towards the region will be increased in the short and medium term. The Kremlin’s
pivot to the East may thus be expected to continue, as part of a broader attempt to
redefine Russia’s role within an evolving international order.
References
Amirov, Vyacheslav B (1999). "Russia in the Asia–Pacific area: challenges and
opportunities”. In Russia and Asia: The emerging security agenda, edited by Gennady
Chufrin, 273-87. Oxford: Oxford University Press.
Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation. “StatsAPEC: Bilateral Linkages Database”. Accessed
October 15, 2023. http://statistics.apec.org/index.php/bilateral_linkage/bld_result/37
Azizian, Rouben. “Russia and the Asia-Pacific: Trends, Threats and Common Threads”.
In Russia, America and Security in the Asia-Pacific, edited by Rouben Azizian and Boris
Reznik, 16-36. Honolulu, Hawaii: Asia-Pacific Center for Security Studies, 2007.
Bank of Russia. “Statistics: Flows by Geographical and Economic Areas”,
Accessed October 15
,
2023. https://www.cbr.ru/eng/statistics/
Baranovsky, Vladimir. “Russia and Asia: challenges and opportunities for national and
international security”. In Russia and Asia: the emerging security agenda, edited by
JANUS.NET, e-journal of International Relations
e-ISSN: 1647-7251
VOL. 16, Nº. 2
November 2025-April 2026, pp. 180-201
Russia's turn to the East: analysing the Drivers of Moscow's Foreign Policy Towards the Asia-
Pacific Region since 1991
Mónica Román González
198
Gennady Chufrin, 11-32. New York: SIPRI and Oxford University Press, 1999.
https://www.sipri.org/sites/default/files/files/books/SIPRI99Chu/SIPRI99Chu02.pdf
Creswell, John W. A Concise Introduction to Mixed Methods Research. Thousand Oaks:
Sage, 2015.
Donaldson, Robert, and Nogee, Joseph and Nadkarni, Vidya. The Foreign Policy of Russia:
Changing Systems, Enduring Interests. London & New York: Routledge Taylor & Francis
Group, 2014.
Dueñas Pulido, Antonio. “Rusia en el APEC [Russia in APEC].” México y la Cuenca del
Pacífico, no. 20, (2003): 22-29. https://doi.org/10.32870/mycp.v6i20.633
Forsberg, Tuomas. “Status Conflicts between Russia and the West: Perceptions and
Emotional Biases.” Communist and Post-Communist Studies 47, no. 3/4 (2014): 323–
31. https://www.jstor.org/stable/48610405.
Hamzah, Majeed Kamil, Esmael, Ahmed Abid and Abbas, Faisal Shallal. “The Future of
Russian-Japanese Relations in Light of the Crisis in the Kuril Islands”. Utopía y Praxis
Latinoamericana, no. 25 (2020): 291-303.
Korolev, Alexander. “Russia’s Reorientation to Asia: Causes and Strategic Implications”.
Pacific Affairs, no. 89, (2016): 53–73. http://www.jstor.org/stable/24779265
Kotz, David and Weir, Fred. Russia’s Path from Gorbachov to Putin: The Demise of the
Soviet System and the New Russia. London: Routledge, 2007.
Kozyrev, Andrey. “Strategy for Partnership”. In Russian Foreign Policy in Transition:
Concepts and Realities, edited by Andrei Melville and Tatiana Shakleina, 193-205.
Budapest: Central European University Press, 2005.
Lavrov, Sergey. “Russian Foreign Minister on 'Myopic Definition of the Indo-Pacific'”.
Raisina Dialogue 2020, Day 2. India, New Delhi, January 14th-16
th
, 2020.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NwlgjfvQFVM
Leichtova, Magda. Misunderstanding Russia: Russian Foreign Policy and the West.
London: Routledge, 2016.
Lo, Bobo. “Recasting the ideological debate”. In Russian Foreign Policy Making in the
Post-Soviet Era – Reality, Illusion and Mythmaking, edited by Bobo Lo, 40-65.
Basingstoke and New York: Palgrave 2002.
Lo, Bobo. Once More With Feeling: Russia and the Asia-Pacific. Sydney: Lowy Institute,
2019.
Mankoff, Jeffrey. Russian Foreign Policy: The Return of Great Power Politics. Lanham:
Rowman & Littlefield Publishers, 2009.
Marcos, Antonio Alonso, and Nurimbetov, Rakhmatulla. “La Organización de Cooperación
de Shanghái se enfrenta a una elección estratégica [The Shanghai Cooperation
Organization faces a strategic choice].” Instituto Español de Estudios Estratégicos, no.
59 (2021): 1-13.
https://www.ieee.es/Galerias/fichero/docs_opinion/2021/DIEEEO59_2021_ANTALO_Sh
anghai.pdf
JANUS.NET, e-journal of International Relations
e-ISSN: 1647-7251
VOL. 16, Nº. 2
November 2025-April 2026, pp. 180-201
Russia's turn to the East: analysing the Drivers of Moscow's Foreign Policy Towards the Asia-
Pacific Region since 1991
Mónica Román González
199
Melvin, Neil. Russia and the Indo-Pacific Security Concept. London: Royal United Services
Institute for Defence and Security Studies, 2021.
Miller, Chris. We Shall Be Masters: Russian Pivots to East Asia from Peter the Great to
Putin. Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press, 2021.
Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation. “Concept of the Foreign Policy of
the Russian Federation”, adopted by the President of the Russian Federation Dmitry A.
Medvedev, July 12, 2008. Accessed October 12, 2023.
http://en.kremlin.ru/supplement/4116
Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation. “Foreign Policy Conception of The
Russian Federation of 1993”. In: Russian Foreign Policy in Transition: Concepts and
Realities, edited by Andrei Melville and Tatiana Shakleina, 27-63. Budapest: Central
European University Press, 2005.
Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation. “Foreign Policy Concept of the
Russian Federation of 2016”, approved by President of the Russian Federation V. Putin,
November 30, 2016. Accessed October 13, 2023.
http://www.kremlin.ru/acts/bank/41451
Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation. “Kontseptsiya vneshnei politiki
Rosiiskoi Federatsii [Foreign Policy Concept of the Russian Federation]”, adopted by the
President of the Russian Federation V. Putin, June 28, 2000. Accessed October 09, 2023.
https://docs.cntd.ru/document/901764263
Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation. “The Concept of the Foreign Policy
of the Russian Federation of 2023”, approved by Decree of the President of the Russian
Federation n.º 229, March 31, 2023. Accessed October 14, 2023.
https://mid.ru/en/foreign_ policy/fundamental_documents/1860586/
Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation. “The Foreign Policy Concept of the
Russian Federation”, approved by the President of the Russian Federation V. Putin,
February 15, 2013. Accessed October 12, 2023.
https://www.mid.ru/en/foreign_policy/official_documents/-
/asset_publisher/CptICkB6BZ29/content/id/122186
Mitchell, Lincoln. The Color Revolutions. Philadelphia: University of Pennsylvania Press,
2012.
Molchanov, Mikhail. Eurasian Regionalism and Russian Foreign Policy. Farnham: Ashgate,
2015.
Østevik, Malin and Kuhrt, Natalia. “The Russian Far East and Russian Security Policy in
the Asia-Pacific Region”. In Russia’s Turn to the East, edited by Helge Blakkisrud and
Elena Wilson Rowe, 75-94. Cham: Palgrave Pivot, 2018.
Pardo de Santayana, José. “Geopolítica de Asia, el nuevo centro de gravedad del mundo
[Geopolitics of Asia, the world's new center of gravity]”. In Panorama Estratégico 2020
[Strategic Overview 2020], edited by Ministerio de Defensa de España. Madrid: Instituto
Español de Estudios Estratégicos, 2020, 131-180.
JANUS.NET, e-journal of International Relations
e-ISSN: 1647-7251
VOL. 16, Nº. 2
November 2025-April 2026, pp. 180-201
Russia's turn to the East: analysing the Drivers of Moscow's Foreign Policy Towards the Asia-
Pacific Region since 1991
Mónica Román González
200
Primakov, Yevgeny. “Mezhdunarodnye otnosheniya nakanune XXI veka: problemy,
perspekyivy [International relations on the eve of the 21st century: problems and
prospects].” Mezhdunarodnaya zhizn’ [International Affairs], no. 10 (1996): 3–13.
Putin, Vladimir. “East Asia Summit: Vladimir Putin attended the plenary session of the
13th East Asia Summit (EAS)”, President of Russia, Kremlin, November 15, 2018.
Accessed October 10, 2023. http://en.kremlin.ru/catalog/countries/SG/events/59128
Putin, Vladimir. “Presidential Address to the Federal Assembly”, President of Russia,
Kremlin, 2013. Accessed October 10, 2023.
http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/19825
Putin, Vladimir. “Speech and the Following Discussion at the Munich Conference on
Security Policy”, President of Russia, Kremlin, February 10, 2007. Accessed October 10,
2023. http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/transcripts/24034
Rangsimaporn, Paradorn. "Russia’s Search for an Enhanced Role in Southeast Asia".
ASEAN-Russia: Foundations and Future Prospects, edited by Victor Sumsky, Mark Hong
and Amy Lugg, 325-344. Singapore: ISEAS Publishing, 2012.
https://doi.org/10.1355/9789814379588-040
Ruiz González, Francisco J. “Rusia: Del divorcio con Occidente a la luna de miel con China
[Russia: From divorce with the West to honeymoon with China]”. Instituto Español de
Estudios Estratégicos, no. 62 (2014): 1-20.
https://www.ieee.es/Galerias/fichero/docs_opinion/2014/DIEEEO62-
2014_Asociacionestrategica_RusiayChina_Fco.RuizGlez.pdf
Rumer, Eugene, Sokolsky, Richard, and Vladicic, Aleksandar. Russia in the Asia-Pacific:
Less Than Meets the Eye. Washington D.C: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace,
2020. https://carnegieendowment.org/files/SokolskyRumer_Asia-Pacific_FINAL.pdf
Russian Federal State Statistics Service, Rossiiskii Statisticheskii Ezhegodnik 2017
[Russian Statistical Yearbook]. Moscow: Federal State Statistics Service - Rosstat, 2017,
https://rosstat.gov.ru/storage/mediabank/torg17.pdf
Russian Federal State Statistics Service. Rossiiskii Statisticheskii Ezhegodnik 2022
[Russian Statistical Yearbook]. Moscow: Federal State Statistics Service - Rosstat, 2022,
https://rosstat.gov.ru/storage/mediabank/Ejegodnik_2022.pdf
Safire, William. “On Language: Near Abroad.” New York Times, May 22, 1994.
https://www.nytimes.com/1994/05/22/magazine/on-language-the-near-abroad.html
Sergunin, Alexander. Explaining Russian Foreign Policy Behavior. Verlag Sttugart:
Ibídem, 2016.
Shevtsova, Lilia. Putin’s Russia. Washington: Carnegie Endowment for International
Peace, 2005.
Stent, Angela. ‘‘America and Russia: Paradoxes of Partnership’’. In Russia’s Engagement
with the West: Transformation and Integration in the Twenty-First Century, edited by
Alexander J. Motyl, Blair A. Ruble, and Lilia Shevtsova, 260-280. Armonk, NY: M. E.
Sharpe, 2005.
JANUS.NET, e-journal of International Relations
e-ISSN: 1647-7251
VOL. 16, Nº. 2
November 2025-April 2026, pp. 180-201
Russia's turn to the East: analysing the Drivers of Moscow's Foreign Policy Towards the Asia-
Pacific Region since 1991
Mónica Román González
201
Stockholm International Peace Research Institute. “SIPRI Arms Transfers Database”.
Accessed October 15, 2023. https://doi.org/10.55163/SAFC1241
Trenin, Dimitri. “Russia and the Rise of Asia”. In: Prospects of multilateral cooperation in
the Asia Pacific: to overcome the gap of security outlooks, edited by NIDS International
Symposium on Security Affairs, 113-125. Tokyo: The National Institute for Defense
Studies, 2014.
Trenin, Dmitri. “Russia Leaves the West.” Foreign Affairs 85, no. 4 (2006): 87–96.
https://doi.org/10.2307/20032043.
Tsvetov, Anton. “After Crimea: Southeast Asia in Russia’s Foreign Policy Narrative.”
Contemporary Southeast Asia, vol. 38, no. 1, (2016): 55–80.
http://www.jstor.org/stable/24916595
Tsygankov, Andrey. Routledge Handbook Of Russian Foreign Policy. London & New York:
Routledge Taylor & Francis Group, 2018.
Tsygankov, Andrey. Russia’s Foreign Policy: Change and Continuity in National Identity.
Lanham: Rowman and Littlefield, 2016.
United Nations Commodity Trade Statistics Database. “Free access to detailed global
trade data”. Accessed October 15, 2023. https://comtradeplus.un.org/
United Nations. “Russian-Chinese Joint Declaration on a Multipolar World and the
Establishment of a New International Order”, United Nations Digital Library, April 23,
1997. https://digitallibrary.un.org/record/234074?ln=es
Weitz, Richard. “Russian Military Power and Policy in the Far East”. In The Russian Military
in Contemporary Perspective, edited by Stephen J Blank, 917-74. Carlisle, PA: United
States Army War College Press - Strategic Studies Institute, 2019.
OBSERVARE
Universidade Autónoma de Lisboa
e-ISSN: 1647-7251
VOL. 16, Nº. 2
November 2025-April 2026
202
THE BREAK IN RUSSIAN–AMERICAN RELATIONS: ANALYZING THE
DIPLOMATIC TRAIL TO THE IRAQ WAR
EBRAHIM DARYAEE MOTLAGH
selwin.daryaee@gmail.com
PhD, Russian History, Chechen State Pedagogical University (Russian Federation)
Abstract
This study is an attempt to analyze the diplomatic course to the Iraq War and the divergence
in Russian-American relations with a focus on diplomatic activities in January, February and
March 2003. To this end, the article discussed Russia’s opposition to the use of military force
with reference to its evolving foreign policy doctrine and, more specifically, its long-standing
and complex relations with the Baath regime in Iraq. Following this discussion, the article
argued that this opposition originated from realistic concerns, domestic pressure and doctrinal
differences. In this way, it was argued that Kremlin’s diplomatic gestures tilted towards
multilateralism, non-intervention and the UN Security Council as mechanisms that could
secure its interests. However, the review of statements from the Russian president and
diplomats suggested that they were careful not to harm Russian-American relations.
Therefore, Russia benefited from the anti-war consensus at the UN because it increased the
cost of unilateral military action and prevented a direct diplomatic confrontation with
Washington. Following these arguments, it was also concluded that the outcome of this
diplomatic prelude was an early sign of multipolarity in the 21st century.
Keywords
Russian foreign policy, Iraq War, UN Security Council, diplomacy, Russian-American relations.
Resumo
Este estudo é uma tentativa de analisar o processo diplomático que conduziu à Guerra do
Iraque e a divergência nas relações entre a Rússia e os Estados Unidos, com foco nas
atividades diplomáticas em Janeiro, Fevereiro e Março de 2003. Para tal, o artigo discute a
oposição da Rússia ao uso da força militar, com referência à evolução da sua doutrina de
política externa e, mais especificamente, às suas relações complexas e de longa data com o
regime Baath no Iraque. Após essa discussão, o artigo argumentou que essa oposição teve
origem em preocupações realistas, pressão interna e diferenças doutrinárias. Dessa forma,
argumentou-se que os gestos diplomáticos do Kremlin se inclinaram para o multilateralismo,
a não intervenção e o Conselho de Segurança da ONU como mecanismos que poderiam
garantir os seus interesses. No entanto, a análise das declarações do presidente russo e dos
diplomatas sugeriu que estes foram cuidadosos para não prejudicar as relações entre a Rússia
e os Estados Unidos. Portanto, a Rússia tirou partido do consenso antiguerra na ONU, pois
aumentou o custo da ação militar unilateral e impediu um confronto diplomático direto com
Washington. Seguindo esses argumentos, concluiu-se também que o resultado desse prelúdio
diplomático foi um sinal precoce da multipolaridade no século XXI.
JANUS.NET, e-journal of International Relations
e-ISSN: 1647-7251
VOL. 16, Nº. 2
November 2025-April 2026, pp. 202-215
The break in Russian–American Relations: Analyzing the Diplomatic Trail to the Iraq War
Ebrahim Daryaee Motlagh
203
Palavras-chave
Política externa russa, Guerra do Iraque, Conselho de Segurança da ONU, diplomacia, relações
russo-americanas.
How to cite this article
Motlagh, Ebrahim Daryaee (2025). The break in Russian–American Relations: Analyzing the
Diplomatic Trail to the Iraq War. Janus.net, e-journal of international relations. VOL. 16, Nº. 2,
November 2025-April 2026, pp. 202-215. DOI https://doi.org/10.26619/1647-7251.16.2.11
Article submitted on 29th November 2024 and accepted for publication on 29th
September 2025.
JANUS.NET, e-journal of International Relations
e-ISSN: 1647-7251
VOL. 16, Nº. 2
November 2025-April 2026, pp. 202-215
The break in Russian–American Relations: Analyzing the Diplomatic Trail to the Iraq War
Ebrahim Daryaee Motlagh
204
THE BREAK IN RUSSIAN–AMERICAN RELATIONS: ANALYZING
THE DIPLOMATIC TRAIL TO THE IRAQ WAR
EBRAHIM DARYAEE MOTLAG
Introduction
The present study is an attempt to reassess the US campaign for the 2003 invasion of
Iraq from a Russian perspective. In this regard, the study will examine the reactions of
key Russian officials to this military invasion in the period leading up to the invasion. A
discussion of these reactions can provide a context which shows the diplomatic course to
the Invasion of Iraq in March 2003. The following discussions argue that Russia’s
opposition can be explained, on the one hand, in the context of Russian foreign policy
doctrine at that time and, more specifically, in the context of Russia’s long-standing and
complex relations with Saddam Hussein’s regime in Iraq. Accordingly, the article argues
that Russia’s opposition to the imminent military action was rooted in Moscow’s Middle
East policy and doctrinal differences with the United States regarding the use of force
and military intervention to reach international goals.
The 9/11 terrorist attacks which led to the occupation of Afghanistan and Iraq by a US-
led military coalition, reinforced an international political paradigm in which the use of
military force and regime change were more likely in the future. Thus, the dawn of the
twenty-first century presented a bleak outlook for the world and set a controversial
precedent for the invasion of sovereign states by major powers. In this regard, a great
deal of research has been written on the Iraq War in recent years, assessing its causes
and circumstances from conflicting perspectives. On March 22, 2003, in his radio address,
President George W. Bush attempted to clarify the overall structure behind the US
massive military campaign by saying that the goal of this mission was “to disarm Iraq of
weapons of mass destruction [WMDs], to end Saddam Hussein’s support for terrorism,
and to free the Iraqi people” (White House Archives, 2003). This was despite the fact
that, prior to the invasion, the UN inspection team had failed to find convincing evidence
of the existence of such weapons in Iraq (see, UN Meetings Coverage and Press Releases,
2003). Given the history of tensions with Iraq, the emphasis on the risk of Iraqi WMD
program, including chemical and possibly nuclear weapons, had become an integral part
of the American “containment” policy against the Saddam regime since 1991 (Zilinskas,
1995; Black, 1999). After February 28, 1991, when a coalition of 42 countries ended the
occupation of Kuwait, some criticized the administration of George H. W. Bush for failing
to continue the campaign and possibly overthrow Saddam. When the Gulf War began,
Bush made it clear that the goal was to liberate Kuwait and not to occupy Iraq, but he
also stated that his administration was determined to destroy Saddam Hussein’s nuclear
bomb potential and his chemical weapons facilities (Rosenthal, 1991). Later, Bush and
his national security advisor, Brent Scowcroft, argued that the continuation of attacks
after the liberation of Kuwait would certainly undermine the alliance and cause severe
JANUS.NET, e-journal of International Relations
e-ISSN: 1647-7251
VOL. 16, Nº. 2
November 2025-April 2026, pp. 202-215
The break in Russian–American Relations: Analyzing the Diplomatic Trail to the Iraq War
Ebrahim Daryaee Motlagh
205
casualties for the coalition forces (see, Bush & Scowcroft, 1998). Indeed, the idea of
toppling Saddam’s regime seemed risky and impractical at the time.
However, the conclusion remained among the Americans that the Iraqi regime was still
a problem. While regime change was temporarily removed from Washington’s agenda,
to ensure this containment, the British and American governments launched a series of
punitive measures and military campaigns against Iraq in the 1990s. These measures
included economic sanctions through the UN Security Council, the enforcement of no-fly
zones in northern and southern Iraq and the regular inspections of targets inside Iraq by
the UN Special Commission (UNSCOM). Hence, the tension between Britain and, in
particular, the United States with the Baath regime of Iraq escalated throughout the
1990s. The peak of these tensions appeared in December 1998 when the UK and the US
launched Operation Desert Fox with airstrikes on targets deemed suspicious by UNSCOM.
These airstrikes were supported by another major development regarding Iraq that
occurred on October 31, 1998 when President Bill Clinton signed the Iraq Liberation Act.
The act that had been approved by a majority vote at the US Congress and Senate
explicitly stated that the US government should “support efforts to remove the regime
headed by Saddam Hussein from power in Iraq” (Iraq Liberation Act, 1998). Until then,
the US government had been regularly trying to weaken or even overthrow Saddam
Hussein by conducting covert operations and supporting insurgencies in Iraq. In fact, CIA
assessments indicated that Iraq still posed a threat to American interests after the 1991
ceasefire (see, Ignatius, 2003). But the signing of the Liberation Act made regime change
an official policy of the United States. Therefore, the Clinton administration removed the
main obstacle to the possibility of a military attack on Iraq. In this vein, the September
11 attacks and the start of the so-called “War on Terror” brought this possibility to the
fore. Interestingly, in October 2002, the Bush administration capitalized on this act,
among other things, to justify the invasion and successfully passed the Iraq Resolution.
Thus, by the time George W. Bush took office in 2000, regime change had become the
official policy of the United States towards Iraq. At that time, the general expectation
was that the Republican administration would take measures that were more aggressive
in dealing with Iraq, not least because some advisers who were close to the president
were obsessed with the concept of military action to remove Saddam from power. A
notable case was the Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld who was responsible for
directing George Bush’s War on Terror. During the first emergency meeting of the
National Security Council on September 11, he had famously asked, “why the United
States should not go against Iraq and not just al-Qaeda” (Kampfner, 2003, p. 156). Thus,
from the very beginning, military plans for an invasion of Iraq had been prepared in the
Pentagon even though there was no proven connection between Al-Qaeda and the Iraqi
regime. However, the leading members of the administration tried to convince the
outsiders of this connection. For example, on September 14, 2003, Vice President Dick
Cheney said to a conservative think tank that “he (Saddam) had long established ties
with Al-Qaeda” (NBC News, 2003). Following the first stages of the American campaign
in Afghanistan and the fall of the Taliban regime, the Bush administration made extensive
efforts to galvanize American public opinion, justify the invasion of Iraq and garner
support from allies with the aim of organizing a political-military coalition. In a well-
known example, on February 5, 2003, the US Secretary of State Collin Powell appeared
at the UN Security Council to describe evidence based on “solid intelligence” about Iraqi
JANUS.NET, e-journal of International Relations
e-ISSN: 1647-7251
VOL. 16, Nº. 2
November 2025-April 2026, pp. 202-215
The break in Russian–American Relations: Analyzing the Diplomatic Trail to the Iraq War
Ebrahim Daryaee Motlagh
206
WMDs which failed to convince the members and was later proved to be false and
misguided (see, White House News Release, 2003).
As noted above, Russia along with some major countries such as France, Germany and
China opposed the campaign and warned of its consequences for the region and the
world. Thus, as the invasion began, President Vladimir Putin said in a Kremlin statement
that the campaign would cause widespread humanitarian and environmental disasters
and his foreign minister, Igor Ivanov, called it unjustified. To be clear, Russia’s objection
to the use of military force against Iraq must be considered within the Russian Middle
Eastern policy and Moscow’s complex interaction with the Iraqi government from 1991
to 2003.
Iraq: A bone of contention in Russian foreign policy in the Middle East
After the fall of the Soviet Union, the new Russian Federation attempted under President
Boris Yeltsin to maintain the former ties that had been developed during the Soviet times.
This became more evident in the second half of Yeltsin’s presidency and particularly in
1996 when he chose Yevgeny Primakov to lead the Russian foreign policy (see, for
instance, Simha, 2015). Primakov was a substitute for Andrei Kozyrev whose friendly
gesture towards the West and especially the United States was a matter of concern for
Russian nationalists. Kozyrev’s nationalist critics such as the conservative members of
the Russian State Duma claimed that his Atlanticist approach had failed to adequately
address their concerns about NATO expansion and developments in Iraq (Lynch, 2001).
Therefore, the new foreign minister gave priority to further strategic autonomy and
multilateralism with special emphasis on India and China as emerging powers in the post-
Cold War era. This turn in strategy was later called the ‘Primakov Doctrine’ (see, Delong,
2020; Rumer, 2019). As a diplomat, Primakov was also famous for his pragmatism and
his close knowledge of the Arab World as he had previously served in key diplomatic
positions across the Middle East. With respect to the Middle Eastern conflicts and
particularly the case of Iraq, Russian foreign policy showed a strong opposition to military
intervention. Hence, despite Yeltsin’s early efforts to maintain security and economic
cooperation with the United States, Russia’s emphasis on non-intervention gradually
drew the country away from the American foreign policy in the Balkans and the Middle
East.
Historically, the Arab World was a theater for Soviet-American rivalries and, in this
theater, Iraq was geographically and politically closer to the USSR. In this case, Russia’s
close relations with the Iraqi regime, which was a legacy from the Cold War, became a
bone of contention in Russian-American diplomatic gestures throughout the 1990s. In
fact, these confrontations captivated many international scholars in that decade (see, for
instance, Freedman, 2001; Nizamedden 1999; Rumer, 2000; Shaffer, 2001; Vassiliev,
1993). These scholars often emphasized that the revival of relations with Iraq was
ultimately inevitable in the post-Cold War era. However, a review of records suggests
that Soviet-Iraqi relations were always interesting to Western political scientists. For
instance, in 1980, Francis Fukuyama analyzed the depth of these relations since 1968
and concluded that Iraq was really “an ideal location for the expansion of Soviet
influence” (Fukuyama, 1980, p. 5). In his analysis, Fukuyama stressed factors such as
oil resources, the firm position of the Baath Party, Iraq’s overall political and military
JANUS.NET, e-journal of International Relations
e-ISSN: 1647-7251
VOL. 16, Nº. 2
November 2025-April 2026, pp. 202-215
The break in Russian–American Relations: Analyzing the Diplomatic Trail to the Iraq War
Ebrahim Daryaee Motlagh
207
influence and the country’s need for Soviet military hardware. However, he also indicated
the ‘considerable weakness’ in Soviet influence in Iraq. In fact, Primakov’s observations
from the same historical period may corroborate Fukuyama’s theory (see, Primakov,
2009, pp. 301-324). This being said, during the Cold War, the Soviet Union maintained
close military and economic ties with the Iraqi regime and, despite criticisms from
Washington, this support continued even after the occupation of Kuwait in 1990.
However, one should note that the Soviet Union ultimately supported the UN Security
Council Resolutions 660 and 665 which condemned the invasion of Kuwait and authorized
a naval blockade against Iraq. This indicated that ideology was then a less significant
factor in the Soviet Union’s foreign policy towards the end of the Cold War and
multilateralism and the application of UN mechanisms were becoming more relevant.
Replacing the Soviet Union in 1991, the Russian Federation maintained this approach
especially in the case of Iraqi crisis.
Naturally, with its economic potential and vast energy resources, Iraq remained a key
piece of the Russian foreign policy puzzle in the post-Soviet era. In hindsight, therefore,
one might see that Kremlin’s support for Baghdad put this tendency in direct opposition
to the more aggressive stance that the Anglo-American front promoted. In this political
climate, Yeltsin’s position on Iraq was sometimes coupled with his opposition to
Washington’s policies which often appeared in the form of unilateral sanctions and
military escalations. Nevertheless, as some scholars have shown, the Russian foreign
policy followed a complex logic. In one case, in 1996, Primakov raised the question of
Iraq’s seven-billion-dollar debt to the Soviet Union. Likewise, in his analysis of post-
Soviet foreign policy, Nikolai Zlobin has argued that Moscow regarded this massive debt
as an instrument to exert influence on Saddam Hussein (Zlobin, 2004, p. 91). In fact,
the urgent need to restore Russian economy, in a situation where Western financial
support was visibly insufficient, prompted Primakov to salvage relations with the former
Cold War allies. But the question of Iraq and its delusional leader remained problematic.
In “Russia and the Arabs”, a memoir that documents his diplomatic experience in the
Middle East, Primakov wrote extensively about “the Phenomenon that was Saddam
Hussein”. During his long career, he had met with Hussein on several occasions and
therefore could offer an analysis of his personality. Recalling Russia’s fractured influence
in Iraq, Primakov had this to say:
“But without meaning to belittle the influence that Russia had, it has to be said that
Saddam continued to believe in his lucky star, in his own foresight, and ultimately in
Allah, who would save him from harm. What sustained his belief was not blind hope, but
his realpolitik certainty that, given the prevailing sentiment in the Arab world—and indeed
the Americans’ own interests—the United States had nothing to gain from bringing about
his downfall” (Primakov, 2009, p. 318).
According to Primakov, Russia made several attempts in the 1990s to prevent air strikes
on Iraq. But, as mentioned earlier, the reemergence of hawkish Republicans in 2000
(mainly figures such as Cheney and Rumsfeld) and the 9/11 terrorist attacks created an
immediate crisis in the Middle East. Moreover, in a general sense, Yeltsin’s Russia had
already become increasingly aware of its fundamental differences with the West and its
potential to exert more influence globally. This awareness along with later developments
promoted a new course for Russia’s foreign posture in the new century. On March 26,
2000, Vladimir Putin became president of Russia and, with his leadership, the foreign
JANUS.NET, e-journal of International Relations
e-ISSN: 1647-7251
VOL. 16, Nº. 2
November 2025-April 2026, pp. 202-215
The break in Russian–American Relations: Analyzing the Diplomatic Trail to the Iraq War
Ebrahim Daryaee Motlagh
208
policy discourse became more assertive while still showing some pragmatism. Initially,
Putin supported George Bush’s War on Terror and provided support for the United States
during the occupation of Afghanistan. However, the relations took a turn for the worse
when, in December 2001, Washington informed Moscow that the United States would
soon withdraw from the Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty. The withdrawal from the treaty could
jeopardize the Russian strategic parity in terms of ballistic missile arsenal. To make
matters worse, the following year, the NATO 17th summit was held in Prague during
which the organization reaffirmed its post-Cold War Open Door Policy. During a NATO
press conference in Prague, Bush supported the admission of new countries to the
organization and also indicated that the United States would “lead a coalition of the willing
to disarm Saddam Hussein” (see, NATO Press Conference, 2002). Following these
developments, Russia did not support the Iraq War and, as some Pentagon documents
later suggested, even provided the Iraqis with intelligence about the coalition’s plans and
troop movements (Burns, 2006). Therefore, since 2003, Russian foreign policy became
evidently more divergent. In what follows, this study will revisit some statements from
Russian and American officials to discuss their positions in the weeks leading to the war.
The Iraq War and Putin’s break with the US
As noted earlier, speculations and informal statements about the Bush administration’s
intention to go to war with Iraq had been circulating since the September 11 attacks. But
the US government had not yet made an official attempt to publicize the idea before
Bush’s address to the UN General Assembly on September 12, 2002. In his address,
while praising his administration’s performance in the Afghanistan campaign, Bush
referred to the dangers that he believed threatened the world and, then, linked these
threats to Iraq:
“In one place -- in one regime -- we find all these dangers, in their most lethal and
aggressive forms, exactly the kind of aggressive threat the United Nations was born to
confront”. (The White House Press Release, 2002).
After months of diplomatic struggle and lengthy media debates, the invasion of Iraq
began on March 20, 2003, and lasted until May 1 of that year when Bush gave his famous
“Mission Accomplished” speech. Nevertheless, in the months and weeks leading up to
this massive operation, many high-profile figures took explicit and sometimes alarmist
positions on the war ahead. Here, the study will focus on the official position of the
Russian government including statements from President Putin and his Foreign Minister
Igor Ivanov that appeared in the press within a short period before the war . Discussing
these reactions can provide a context for understanding the diplomatic background to
the Invasion of Iraq.
In 1998, Igor Ivanov succeeded Primakov as foreign minister. He took the helm of
Russian foreign policy when it had become more assertive and independent from
American and Western world policy. For instance, during the NATO bombing of Yugoslavia
in 1999, Ivanov expressed Russia’s opposition to these developments which were
described as a breach of international law (Averre, 2009). In a similar vein, he had also
criticized the 1998 bombing of Iraq which were carried out despite Russia’s opposition.
But, in January 2003, amid the Anglo-American propaganda campaign against the Iraqi
regime that coincided with the dispatch of more British and American troops to the
JANUS.NET, e-journal of International Relations
e-ISSN: 1647-7251
VOL. 16, Nº. 2
November 2025-April 2026, pp. 202-215
The break in Russian–American Relations: Analyzing the Diplomatic Trail to the Iraq War
Ebrahim Daryaee Motlagh
209
Persian Gulf, there were speculations in the media that Russia was actually negotiating
with Saddam Hussein to step down and avert the war. The speculations led Ivanov to
deny these reports in an interview with the Russian newspaper Trud. According to the
foreign minister, the goal of these reports was to undermine Russian diplomacy at that
time, but he also emphasized that Russia maintained diplomatic relations with Iraq in
order to “know more about the mood and thoughts of the Iraqi leadership” (Oliver, 2003).
At this point, three points were clear in the Russian Foreign Minister’s statements. First,
Russia believed that Iraq, contrary to the claims of the United States and Britain, had
begun to cooperate with the UN weapons inspectors. Second, contrary to the claims of
the Bush administration, there was no substantial evidence that the country was
rearming. Third, sanctions against Iraq were counterproductive and had to be lifted.
Therefore, regarding the possibility of war, he told reporters that there is “still political
and diplomatic leeway to resolve the Iraq issue” (Oliver, 2003).
To understand the relevance of these statements, one must regard the positions of some
other European governments. In this regard, Germany and France also supported
Russia’s position which brought forward criticisms from Secretary of State Colin Powell.
On January 23, during a joint press conference, French President Jacques Chirac and
German Chancellor Gerhard Schröder questioned the wisdom of starting another war in
the Middle East. In this connection, Chirac stated that Germany and France had a
common position on the Iraqi crisis and believed that “everything must be done to avoid
war” (Oliver, 2003). In other words, the Franco-German proposal tilted in favor of more
negotiations and UN inspections. Their reluctance to participate in the use of military
force prompted the Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld to downplay their role and
refer to them as “Old Europe” (Rumsfeld, 2011, pp. 444-445). This was a term that
conservative analysts used to attach more importance to the role of Central and Eastern
Europe in contrast to that of Western European countries in the post-Communist era
especially when it served a United States-led campaign or coalition. Nevertheless, the
Franco-German proposal was generally in line with the position of Russia. In this sense,
the month of January was crucial in shaping international politics as the US government
tried to provide convincing evidence of Iraq’s support for Al-Qaeda terrorists. In one
specific case, given that Russia was still fighting Chechen separatists at that time,
Washington tried to convince Russia that Iraq was supporting some of the terrorists
operating in the North Caucasus (Wines, 2003). Then, the American discourse in
formulating the threats from Iraq was based on two arguments, namely the WMD
program and support for terrorism. In this way, the Americans had concluded that the
argument highlighting the threat of Islamic terrorism was more relevant to Russia than
with the WMD argument. At that time, there was some evidence of a softening in Russia’s
position, partly due to statements from Sergey Yastrzhembsky who was the Kremlin
Press Secretary. Among a group of foreign policy experts in Washington, Yastrzhembsky
had mentioned that Kremlin “did not need a smoking gun, merely a gun” to be convinced,
meaning that the Russians expected Washington to provide further evidence before they
could consider another solution to the crisis (Wines, 2003).
In sum, the main assumption of American policymakers in January 2003 was that Russia
would not seriously oppose the United States on the issue of Iraq. In the analyses that
the American media echoed, two reasons were given for this assumption. First, during
the previous two years, the United States had withdrawn from the Anti-Ballistic Missile
JANUS.NET, e-journal of International Relations
e-ISSN: 1647-7251
VOL. 16, Nº. 2
November 2025-April 2026, pp. 202-215
The break in Russian–American Relations: Analyzing the Diplomatic Trail to the Iraq War
Ebrahim Daryaee Motlagh
210
Treaty and then had supported the expansion of NATO. Despite opposition to these
policies, Vladimir Putin had ultimately decided not to react strongly and eventually
acquiesced to these policy changes. Following this trend, he had balanced a mix of
pragmatism and principle. Therefore, these policymakers were convinced that Putin
would not act very differently with respect to Iraq. The second reason was that, in late
January, Putin had not ruled out the possibility of using force if Iraq did not cooperate
with UN inspectors. In this regard, the assumption was that Russia would act
pragmatically to save its close energy relations with Iraq (Slevin, 2003). However, the
fall of Saddam’s regime could disrupt Moscow’s business dealings in this country and
could also create an unclear perspective in the post-war processes. As stated previously,
the question of Iraq’s debt to Russia was still relevant. Moreover, if the future Iraqi
regime were to quickly pump large quantities of oil into the global energy market to
rebuild its war-torn economy, the price of oil could fall below $18 a barrel, which the
Russians needed to remain solvent (Slevin, 2003). Simply put, the Iraq War could
seriously reduce oil revenues for Russia. It was clear to the Russians that, with Saddam’s
fall, Washington would dominate the decision-making in the country for a long time. For
this reason, there were reports that Russian officials were actively seeking assurances
from the United States that their interests would be respected in the future. In fact, some
analysts stressed this aspect of Russian diplomacy at the time. A case in point was Fiona
Hill, a Russia expert at the Brookings Institution who later served as an intelligence
analyst in the Bush and Obama administrations. With regard to this argument, she
argued that the Russians simply wanted “an advantageous position” in which Russia
would not be excluded from the equations in Iraq and the United States would not
“dominate the postwar Iraqi oil industry” (Slevin, 2003). On this account, the Bush
administration assumed that Russia would not use its veto right to block the American
initiative in the Security Council. They also assumed that, under certain conditions, Russia
would not seriously oppose the Iraq War. Therefore, Washington officials were lobbying
to create those favorable conditions. But, in hindsight, these assumptions were perhaps
not entirely accurate. In fact, one may argue that the Washington lobbyists had
underestimated the roots of Russian-Iraqi relations and the role that they had played in
the nature of Russian foreign policy.
However, the Bush administration’s simplistic view that their resolution could move
forward smoothly in the Security Council soon evaporated. This was due to the opposition
from France and Russia against an unreasonable attack on Iraq. In this regard, France
and Germany had put forward a proposal to remove the crisis, the backbone of which
was strengthening the UN weapons inspections. Historically, the French diplomatic
initiative was crucial in preventing the United States from obtaining the nine votes for
the passage of its long-planned resolution. Speaking on France’s TF1 television, while
supporting the French plan, Vladimir Putin called unilateral military action without UN
approval a “grave error” and warned that “if today a proposition was made that we felt
would lead to an unreasonable use of force, we would act with France or alone”
(Associated Press, 2003). Of course, this involved the use of veto right by Russia.
Nonetheless, the Russian president was cautious and stated that the aim of these
diplomatic efforts was not creating a bloc against the United States, but finding a peaceful
solution to end the Iraqi crisis. In fact, as Bush had said earlier, the United States could
(and later did) go to war with “a coalition of the willing” which mainly included Britain,
Australia and Poland. However, by formulating this opposition, it seemed that Russia,
JANUS.NET, e-journal of International Relations
e-ISSN: 1647-7251
VOL. 16, Nº. 2
November 2025-April 2026, pp. 202-215
The break in Russian–American Relations: Analyzing the Diplomatic Trail to the Iraq War
Ebrahim Daryaee Motlagh
211
Germany and France had deprived Washington of the UN authorization and had also
challenged the post-Cold War order. These developments boosted the possibility of
military action without the UN consent. This was evident given the diplomatic gestures
between the governments supporting and opposing this military action and Washington’s
refusal to give Iraq sufficient time to expand its cooperation with the UN weapons
inspectors. Thus, although Russia had managed to increase the international costs of this
unilateral action for Washington, the fate of Moscow’s economic interests in the post-war
Iraq was in jeopardy. In fact, since 2000, the Bush administration had taken steps that
directly targeted Russian interests. These steps included withdrawing from the Anti-
Ballistic Missile Treaty, establishing military bases and building greater influence in the
former Soviet republics, and supporting the expansion of NATO along Russia’s western
borders. In all of these cases, Russia had strongly expressed its objections but had
eventually acquiesced to these developments. In this sense, joining the Franco-German
initiative and threatening to block the US-sponsored resolution at the UN surprised many
in Washington who believed in Putin’s pragmatism.
But aside from these reasons for opposition, which were rooted in Kremlin’s deep
economic ties with Baghdad, some international observers considered another aspect in
Vladimir Putin’s disagreement with his American counterpart concerning the question of
Iraq. For instance, Vladimir Lukin, the former Russian ambassador to Washington in the
Yeltsin era, stated that the Russian president had become “tired of one-sided deals” with
Washington because Russia had not received any practical assurances to protect its
interests before (LaFraniere, 2003). The background to this was the previous
disagreements over questions such as NATO enlargement, IMF support, economic
cooperation and the ballistic missile treaty. Additionally, analysts such as Viktor
Kremenyuk of the U.S.A.-Canada Institute and Alexander Pikayev from Carnegie’s
Moscow Center, argued that Kremlin did not want to create a perception among Russians
that their government had compromised their interests by following the failed pro-
Western practices of Mikhail Gorbachev and Boris Yeltsin (LeFraniere, 2003). In other
words, they highlighted the role of Russian sentiments to analyze this drift. One can also
note that, at that time, Russia had close interactions with France and Germany and
alignment with these European states could put Russia in a more powerful position. In
fact, Russia had a significant historical advantage in Europe at that time. In Germany,
Chancellor Gerhard Schröder, the leader of the Social Democratic Party, had friendly
relations with Russia. In 2002, while rejecting the American way of handling international
politics, Schröder had instead emphasized “the German Way” and had described his
country as a “peace power”. In France, President Jacques Chirac, who also had warm
relations with Moscow, displayed an independent foreign policy by insisting that Iraq was
not an immediate threat. With respect to the question of Iraq, both governments were
in agreement with Moscow. It was for this reason that, to support its military campaign,
the United States had turned to the New Europe which consisted of some Eastern and
Central European countries that had joined NATO in the post-Cold War period.
With respect to the above discussions, Igor Ivanov’s short note in the Washington Post
illustrates Russia’s calculated stance towards the developments of the previous weeks.
Ivanov’s notes came out on March 15 only a few days before the US invasion. As Foreign
Minister, he had the serious responsibility of both advancing an independent foreign
policy on the Iraqi crisis and ensuring that Moscow’s stance did not irreparably damage
JANUS.NET, e-journal of International Relations
e-ISSN: 1647-7251
VOL. 16, Nº. 2
November 2025-April 2026, pp. 202-215
The break in Russian–American Relations: Analyzing the Diplomatic Trail to the Iraq War
Ebrahim Daryaee Motlagh
212
Russian-American relations. Therefore, he indicated his policy within the UN framework,
claiming that the Russian government had supported the US to pass Resolution 1441
unanimously. According to Ivanov, this resolution that provided the grounds for more
inspections was not necessary from Moscow’s perspective. Yet, as a concession, Russia
worked with the US to secure its unanimous passage (Ivanov, 2003). Above all, he put
emphasis on the role of the UN Security Council to address the Iraqi crisis, since Russia
could probably exert influence within that framework. The foreign minister’s note
suggested that, from a Russian perspective, the international pressure on Iraq was
sufficient and the disarmament was proceeding as planned. Thus, in the context of these
developments, he repeated that the argument for the imminent use of military force was
not valid. According to Ivanov, their goal was “the establishment of a reliable mechanism
of inspections that would be able to help disarm Iraq” and, as he argued, this ‘political
solution’ equally served the interests of Russia and the United States (Ivanov, 2003).
Finally, he expressed his hope that regardless of the outcome, the two sides would be
able to maintain the spirit of cooperation in the future. As stated previously, this
expression of hope in Russian-American relations despite the mounting conflict of interest
was a commonality in the statements from Vladimir Putin and Igor Ivanov.
However, along this diplomatic course, the members of the coalition were making military
preparations. In the end, the coalition began the invasion of Iraq on March 20. On the
same day, the Russian President released a statement at a Kremlin meeting. In this
statement, while referring to the humanitarian crisis caused by the attacks, he called the
military action “contrary to world public opinion, contrary to the principles and norms of
international law and the Charter of the UN” and added that nothing could justify it
(Kremlin Statement, 2003). At least in terms of narrative, these claims seemed accurate
and resonated not only with the world’s public opinion but also with the views of many
governments and independent observers. Like Ivanov, Putin emphasized the
effectiveness of Resolution 1441 that had ruled out the use of force but had provided a
mechanism for international inspectors to disarm Iraq peacefully. While calling the
military action a mistake, he expressed hope that its humanitarian and security
consequences could be prevented by reaching out to the UN mechanisms. In fact, this
statement reflected the tradition that Russia had advocated in addressing the previous
crises with Iraq. This approach emphasized the role of the UN Security Council as a place
where Russian diplomacy could be effective in negotiating with different partners.
Conclusion
This study was an attempt to revisit the diplomatic path to the Iraq War and the break
in Russian-American relations with a focus on diplomatic initiatives. The above
discussions can be significant because they provide a context for current situations and
the broader Russian-American relations.
The invasion of Iraq is largely remembered today for mismanagement and deception.
This is because no evidence was found of Iraqi WMD program and the country ultimately
fell victim to political unrest and Islamic terrorism. In this regard, the above discussions
highlight the argument that Russia’s opposition to the American military campaign can
be seen in the context of the assertive Russian foreign policy that evolved during the
1990s and the entanglement of Kremlin-Baghdad relations. In particular, Russia’s foreign
JANUS.NET, e-journal of International Relations
e-ISSN: 1647-7251
VOL. 16, Nº. 2
November 2025-April 2026, pp. 202-215
The break in Russian–American Relations: Analyzing the Diplomatic Trail to the Iraq War
Ebrahim Daryaee Motlagh
213
policy on developments in the Middle East demonstrates a strong aspect of this doctrine.
As noted, Moscow relied on the mechanisms of the UN Security Council to protect its
long-term interests in Iraq. This approach gave prominence to multilateralism and non-
intervention and showed that Russia sought a mechanism to influence international
equations and receive assurances that its interests would be respected. Given that the
collapse of the Soviet Union had deprived Moscow of the advantage of a wide network of
allies, the UN could be an instrument to exert influence and exploit the rift between
Europe and the United States. Then, with respect to the above discussions, several
conclusions can be drawn from the diplomatic prelude to the Iraq War. First, although
Russia was forced to oppose the United States for reasons including energy security,
domestic pressure from Russian nationalists and doctrinal differences, Putin and Ivanov’s
statements also suggest that they did not want this opposition to seriously hurt Russian-
American relations. Hence, Russia stood behind the initiative that France and Germany
proposed to address the crisis. For Russia, the advantage of this consensus was that it
could, on the one hand, increase the cost of unilateral military action for the United States
by denying a UN authorization and, on the other hand, save Russia from a direct
diplomatic confrontation with Washington. This being said, on a larger scale, the
diplomatic maneuvers between Russia, the Old Europe and the United States and its
allies could indicate a different process. In other words, the unilateralism that the UN
Security Council imposed on the United States could be an early sign of multipolarity at
the beginning of this century. In this sense, the Bush administration assumed that it
could use the momentum created by the September 11 attacks to rally the international
community in the invasion of Iraq. In particular, they also assumed that, following
tradition, Vladimir Putin would choose pragmatism over principle in the Iraqi crisis. But
the prospects of what Russia could lose eventually caused Kremlin to resist diplomatic
pressure and form an alliance with European partners.
References
Averre, D. (2009). From Pristina to Tskhinvali: The legacy of Operation Allied Force in
Russia’s relations with the West. International Affairs, 85(3), 575–591
Black, S. (1999). UNSCOM and the Iraqi biological weapons Program: Implications for
arms control. Politics and the Life Sciences, 18(1), 62–63.
Burns, R. (March 25, 2006). Russia 'gave Saddam intelligence on invasion'. Independent.
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/middle-east/russia-gave-saddam-
intelligence-on-invasion-6105665.html
Bush, G. H. W., & Scowcroft, B. (1998). A World Transformed. New York: Knopf.
Delong, M. (2020). The concept of Russian Federation foreign and security policy by
Eugene Primakov. Internal Security, 12(1), 307–318.
Freedman, R. O. (2001). Russian policy toward the Middle East: The Yeltsin legacy and
the Putin challenge. Middle East Journal, 55(1), 58-90.
Fukuyama, F. (1980). The Soviet Union and Iraq Since 1968. Santa Monica, Calif: RAND
Corporation.
Ignatius, D. (May 16, 2003). The CIA And the Coup That Wasn't. Washington Post.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/archive/opinions/2003/05/16/the-cia-and-the-coup-
that-wasnt/0abfb8fa-61e9-4159-a885-89b8c476b188/
JANUS.NET, e-journal of International Relations
e-ISSN: 1647-7251
VOL. 16, Nº. 2
November 2025-April 2026, pp. 202-215
The break in Russian–American Relations: Analyzing the Diplomatic Trail to the Iraq War
Ebrahim Daryaee Motlagh
214
Iraq Liberation Act of 1998, Public Law 105–338. (1998, October 31).
https://www.govinfo.gov/content/pkg/PLAW-105publ338/pdf/PLAW-105publ338.pdf
Ivanov, I. (March 15, 2003). A Russian Resolve for Peace and Partnership. The
Washington Post. https://www.washingtonpost.com/archive/opinions/2003/03/15/a-
russian-resolve-for-peace-and-partnership/9def3866-c8e1-41c5-ab88-50ba0cf3e1fa/
Kampfner, J. (2003). Blair’s War. New York: Simon and Schuster.
Kremlin Statement. (2003, March 20). Statement on Iraq at a Kremlin Meeting.
http://www.en.kremlin.ru/events/president/transcripts/statements/21942
LaFraniere, S. (March 6, 2003). Putin’s Break with U.S. on Iraq Seen as a Risky Balancing
Act. https://www.washingtonpost.com/archive/politics/2003/03/07/putins-break-with-
us-on-iraq-seen-as-a-risky-balancing-act/0d6f1ed3-38ea-4a7f-bb51-938205fdf07d/
Lynch, A. C. (2001). The realism of Russia’s foreign policy. Europe-Asia Studies, 53(1)
7–31. doi:10.1080/09668130124714
NATO Press Conference. (2002, November 20). Press Conference by US President George
W. Bush and Vaclav Havel, President of the Czech Republic.
https://www.nato.int/docu/speech/2002/s021120b.htm
NBC News (September 14, 2003). EXCLUSIVE: Vice President Dick Cheney, in his first
Sunday interview in six months, discusses the war in Iraq.
https://www.nbcnews.com/id/wbna3080244
Nizamedden, T. (1999). Russia and the Middle East. New York: St. Martin's.
Oliver, M. (January 23, 2003). Russia: no immediate grounds to attack Iraq. The
Guardian. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2003/jan/23/iraq.russia
Primakov, Y. (2009). Russia and the Arabs: Behind the Scenes in the Middle East from
the Cold War to the Present. New York: Basic Books.
Rosenthal, A. (January 17, 1991). WAR IN THE GULF: THE OVERVIEW - U.S. AND ALLIES
OPEN AIR WAR ON IRAQ. https://www.nytimes.com/1991/01/17/world/war-gulf-
overview-us-allies-open-air-war-iraq-bomb-baghdad-kuwaiti-targets-no.html
Rumer, E. (2000). Dangerous Drift: Russia's Middle East Policy. Washington, DC:
Washington Institute for Near East Policy.
Rumer, E. (2019). The Primakov (Not Gerasimov) Doctrine in Action. Washington, D.C.:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.
Rumsfeld, D. (2011). Known and Unknown: A Memoir. New York: Penguin Group.
Shaffer, B. (2001). Partners in Need: The Strategic Relationship of Russia and Iran.
Washington, DC: Washington Institute for Near East Policy.
Simha, R. K. (2015). Primakov: The man who created multipolarity. Modern Diplomacy.
Slevin, P. (February 3, 2003). Russia Would Not Block War on Iraq, U.S. Believes. The
Washington Post. https://www.washingtonpost.com/archive/politics/2003/02/04/russia-
would-not-block-war-on-iraq-us-believes/01869e5a-8cfb-47c6-b028-e4c1bf345db7/
The Associated Press (February 11, 2003). Putin Warns Against Strong Use of Force on
Iraq. https://www.nytimes.com/2003/02/11/international/europe/putin-warns-against-
strong-use-of-force-on-iraq.html
The White House Press Release. (2002, September 12). President’s remarks at the United
Nations General Assembly. https://georgewbush-
whitehouse.archives.gov/news/releases/2002/09/20020912-1.html
JANUS.NET, e-journal of International Relations
e-ISSN: 1647-7251
VOL. 16, Nº. 2
November 2025-April 2026, pp. 202-215
The break in Russian–American Relations: Analyzing the Diplomatic Trail to the Iraq War
Ebrahim Daryaee Motlagh
215
The White House News Release. (2003, February 5). U.S. Secretary of State Colin Powell
addresses the U.N. Security Council [Press Release]. https://georgewbush-
whitehouse.archives.gov/news/releases/2003/02/print/20030205-1.html
UN Meetings Coverage and Press Releases. (2003, June 5). SC/7777, UN inspectors found
no evidence of prohibited weapons programmes as of 18 March withdrawal, Hans Blix
tells Security Council. https://press.un.org/en/2003/sc7777.doc.htm
White House Archives. (2003, March 22). President discusses beginning of Operation
Iraqi Freedom. [Press release]. https://georgewbush-
whitehouse.archives.gov/news/releases/2003/03/20030322.html
Wines, M. (January 31, 2003). THREATS AND RESPONSES: THE KREMLIN; Russia Softens
Opposition To Military Action in Iraq. The New York Times.
https://www.nytimes.com/2003/01/31/world/threats-responses-kremlin-russia-
softens-opposition-military-action-iraq.html
Vassiliev, A. (1993). Russian Policy in the Middle East: From Messiasism to Pragmatism.
Reading, UK: Ithaca Press.
Zilinskas, R. A. (1995). UNSCOM and the UNSCOM experience in Iraq. Politics and the
Life Sciences, 14(2), 230–231.
Zlobin, N. (2004). Iraq in the context of post-Soviet foreign policy. Mediterranean
Quarterly, 15(2), 83-102.
OBSERVARE
Universidade Autónoma de Lisboa
e-ISSN: 1647-7251
VOL. 16, Nº. 2
November 2025-April 2026
216
EVOLUTION OF THE POLITICAL REGIME IN UKRAINE: FROM INDEPENDENCE
TO THE PRESENT
OLEKSANDR SYCH
oleksandrsych@meta.ua
Full Doctor, Professor at the Department of Politology, Vasyl Stefanyk Precarpathian National
University, Ivano-Frankivsk (Ukraine).
https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3697-7636
DMYTRO DZVINCHUK
dmytro_dzvinchuk@outlook.com
Full Doctor, Professor at the Department of Public Administration and Management, Ivano-
Frankivsk National Technical University of Oil and Gas, Ivano-Frankivsk (Ukraine).
https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6391-3822
IHOR DEBENKO
i.debenko@ukr.net
PhD, Associate Professor at the Department of Journalism, Vasyl Stefanyk Precarpathian National
University, Ivano-Frankivsk (Ukraine).
https://orcid.org/0009-0000-2911-2952
BOHDAN HRYVNAK
bohdan-hryvnak@meta.ua
PhD, Associate Professor at the Department of Social Sciences, Ivano-Frankivsk National
Technical University of Oil and Gas, Ivano-Frankivsk (Ukraine).
https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4593-3862
DARYNA SEKH
daryna_sekh@hotmail.com
Graduate Student at the Faculty of International Relations, Ivan Franko National University of
Lviv, Lviv (Ukraine).
https://orcid.org/0009-0006-2963-587X
Abstract
The establishment and evolution of Ukraine's political regime is a complex and dynamic
process shaped by socio-economic and political transformations. This study aims to analyze
the specific features of Ukraine's political regime in its contemporary context. Using methods
of analysis, synthesis, comparison, and formal and legal techniques, the study examines the
structure and functioning of Ukraine's political system, which involves various institutions such
as government bodies, political parties, public organizations, and the media. The findings
reveal that political decisions in Ukraine are largely influenced by democratic principles, which
guide the mechanisms of state power and allow citizens to influence political processes. The
paper also explores the role of symbolisation and mythologisation in shaping the political
regime, highlighting their negative impact on Ukraine's political development and institutional
effectiveness. These processes contribute to the distortion of political narratives and hinder
democratic consolidation. The study's findings are valuable for formulating political strategies
aimed at strengthening democratic practices and rebuilding Ukraine's political system.
JANUS.NET, e-journal of International Relations
e-ISSN: 1647-7251
VOL. 16, Nº. 2
November 2025-April 2026, pp. 216-230
Evolution of the Political Regime in Ukraine: from Independence to the present
Oleksandr Sych, Dmytro Dzvinchuk, Ihor Debenko, Bohdan Hryvnak, Daryna Sekh
217
Keywords
Democracy, state power, institution of presidential power, legitimacy, authoritarianism.
Resumo
O estabelecimento e a evolução do regime político da Ucrânia é um processo complexo e
dinâmico moldado por transformações socioeconômicas e políticas. Este estudo tem como
objetivo analisar as características específicas do regime político da Ucrânia em seu contexto
contemporâneo. Usando métodos de análise, síntese, comparação e técnicas formais e legais,
o estudo examina a estrutura e o funcionamento do sistema político da Ucrânia, que envolve
várias instituições como órgãos governamentais, partidos políticos, organizações públicas e
mídia. Os resultados revelam que as decisões políticas na Ucrânia são amplamente
influenciadas pelos princípios democráticos, que orientam os mecanismos do poder estatal e
permitem que os cidadãos influenciem os processos políticos. O artigo também explora o
papel da simbolização e mitologização na formação do regime político, destacando seu
impacto negativo no desenvolvimento político da Ucrânia e na eficácia institucional. Esses
processos contribuem para a distorção de narrativas políticas e dificultam a consolidação
democrática. As descobertas do estudo são valiosas para formular estratégias políticas
destinadas a fortalecer as práticas democráticas e a reconstrução do sistema político da
Ucrânia.
Palavras-chave
Democracia, poder estatal, instituição de poder presidencial, legitimidade, autoritarismo.
How to cite this article
Sych, Oleksandr, Dzvinchuk, Dmytro, Debenko, Ihor, Hryvnak, Bohdan & Sekh, Daryna (2025).
Evolution of the Political Regime in Ukraine: from Independence to the present. Janus.net, e-
journal of international relations. VOL. 16, Nº. 2, November 2025-April 2026, pp. 216-230. DOI
https://doi.org/10.26619/1647-7251.16.2.12
Article submitted on 21st January 2025 and accepted for publication on 17th September
2025.
JANUS.NET, e-journal of International Relations
e-ISSN: 1647-7251
VOL. 16, Nº. 2
November 2025-April 2026, pp. 216-230
Evolution of the Political Regime in Ukraine: from Independence to the present
Oleksandr Sych, Dmytro Dzvinchuk, Ihor Debenko, Bohdan Hryvnak, Daryna Sekh
218
EVOLUTION OF THE POLITICAL REGIME IN UKRAINE: FROM
INDEPENDENCE TO THE PRESENT
OLEKSANDR SYCH
DMYTRO DZVINCHUK
IHOR DEBENKO
BOHDAN HRYVNAK
DARYNA SEKH
Introduction
The establishment and development of a political regime is a pivotal and complex political
and legal phenomenon in the context of state development. It determines the nature of
state power, organizes the political system, and shapes the interaction between the state
and its citizens (Herrfahrdt-Pähle et al., 2020). A political regime can be understood as
a system of methods and tools for legitimating and exercising power by a particular type
of state (Saha & Sen, 2021). The political regime of a country can be democratic,
authoritarian, or a hybrid form of the two.
Democracy refers to a system where power is vested in the people, either directly or
through elected representatives. In democratic regimes, there is typically a guarantee of
political freedoms and human rights, competitive elections, and a separation of powers
(Buribayev et al., 2020; Gandhi et al., 2020). On the other hand, authoritarianism is
characterized by centralization of power, limited political pluralism, and often restricted
civil liberties. In an adversarial authoritarian regime, although the state maintains control
over key political structures, it allows some opposition or societal participation in a
controlled manner, without threatening the core authority of the ruling elite
(Gerschewski, 2013). These regimes often manipulate institutions to create the
appearance of political competition while maintaining real power within a select group.
The evolution of Ukraine’s political regime has been marked by attempts to shift from a
more authoritarian model toward democracy, but this process has been interrupted by
political and social divides. The socio-political dynamics in Ukraine, especially the East-
West divide, have influenced the political transformations in ways that complicate a
straightforward transition to democracy (Romanyuk, 2020).
In the context of post-Soviet Ukraine, the political regime has often been analyzed
through the lens of neo-patrimonialism and the clientelist state. Neo-patrimonialism
JANUS.NET, e-journal of International Relations
e-ISSN: 1647-7251
VOL. 16, Nº. 2
November 2025-April 2026, pp. 216-230
Evolution of the Political Regime in Ukraine: from Independence to the present
Oleksandr Sych, Dmytro Dzvinchuk, Ihor Debenko, Bohdan Hryvnak, Daryna Sekh
219
refers to a system where political power is exercised through personal relationships and
patronage networks rather than formal institutions (Erdmann & Engel, 2007). This
system often fosters a clientelist state, where political elites use state resources to
maintain loyal supporters, who, in turn, provide the elites with political power.
Researchers have noted that Ukraine’s political regime has been deeply influenced by
these patronage systems, which have shaped both its political institutions and electoral
processes (Romanyuk, 2020; Zelenko et al., 2021). This system’s persistence has been
particularly evident in Ukraine’s political transitions, where reforms have often been more
symbolic than substantive, reflecting the personalistic nature of power rather than
institutional development.
In addition to neo-patrimonialism, other perspectives on Ukraine’s political regime
evolution have emerged. Hybrid regimes, combining elements of both democracy and
authoritarianism, have been discussed in relation to Ukraine’s political development since
independence. The political transformations of the 1990s and 2000s reflect attempts to
consolidate democracy while maintaining significant authoritarian tendencies. The
Maidan Revolutions of 2004 and 2014 catalyzed a significant shift in the political
trajectory, yet political elites continued to manipulate the system to maintain control,
leading to a sustained crisis in political development (Prymush & Yarosh, 2020).
Other scholars have explored democratic transition and authoritarian consolidation in
Ukraine, particularly through the framework of post-Soviet transformation. In this
context, democratic transition is often seen as a gradual process in which the state opens
up to democratic practices but faces resistance from entrenched elites and informal
networks (Shaigorodsky, 2021). However, the process is often interrupted by shifts
towards authoritarianism, which can result in the consolidation of power in the hands of
a few, as seen in the control of key political and economic sectors by oligarchs
(Berezovska-Chmil, 2020; Galchynskyi, 2020).
The political regime in Ukraine has been framed in various ways depending on the lens
used. For instance, institutional theory suggests that Ukraine’s political regime has been
shaped by the actions and decisions of its elites, who have sought to influence the political
system in their favor, often through institutional changes driven by presidential
transitions (Bjørnskov & Rode, 2020). Moreover, the role of elites in the formation of the
political regime is central to understanding how power has been exercised and contested.
Political elites in Ukraine have often oscillated between competing for control over state
institutions and monopolizing power within a narrow group, resulting in fragmented
democratic processes and repeated setbacks in the democratization efforts (Berezovska-
Chmil, 2020).
The evolution of Ukraine’s political regime has been marked by tension between
democratic aspirations and authoritarian practices, influenced by neo-patrimonial
networks, elite competition, and the impact of the Maidan revolutions. A deeper
exploration of neo-patrimonialism, clientelism, and hybrid regimes provides a clearer
understanding of how political and social dynamics have shaped Ukraine’s trajectory.
Furthermore, to grasp the full scope of this transformation, it is necessary to examine
the literature that frames democratic transition and authoritarian consolidation in post-
Soviet states, including Ukraine, to understand the underlying mechanisms of regime
change.
JANUS.NET, e-journal of International Relations
e-ISSN: 1647-7251
VOL. 16, Nº. 2
November 2025-April 2026, pp. 216-230
Evolution of the Political Regime in Ukraine: from Independence to the present
Oleksandr Sych, Dmytro Dzvinchuk, Ihor Debenko, Bohdan Hryvnak, Daryna Sekh
220
Constitutional Foundations of the Political Regime in Ukraine
The study of the transformation of the political regime in Ukraine provides for the need
to highlight the essence of this concept and its structural elements. This is important in
the context of conducting a comparative historical analysis of the category of “political
regime”, which should be understood as the way of distribution of power, the reasons for
its establishment and development in the public consciousness of the nation. Thus, the
establishment of this mechanism involves not only the extension of power to certain
types of public relations, but also the influence on the life of citizens. The structure of the
political regime consists of: methods of exercising state power; the degree of freedom of
a person and their rights; approaches to political decision-making; pluralism; in
particular, the presence or absence of legal (illegal) opposition; the configuration of the
party system; features of the ruling elite (Helms, 2023; Ketners et al., 2024).
An important step towards changing the political system of Ukraine was the adoption by
the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine (VRU) of the Declaration on State Sovereignty of Ukraine
(1990). The latter provided for the consolidation of the sovereignty of a developing state
in accordance with its borders and exercising the right to self-determination. The essence
of the constitutional principles consolidated in the Declaration was revealed in the
approval of the principle of separation of powers (legislative, executive, judicial) and
departure from the idea of democratic centralism. Subsequently, as a result of the
referendum held on 1 December 1991, the Resolution of the Verkhovna Rada of the
Ukrainian SSR No. 1427-XII “On Proclamation of Independence of Ukraine” (1991) was
signed, which affected the political status of the state. The title of Chapter 7 of the
Constitution (Basic Law) of Ukraine (1978) was changed from “Ukrainian SSR – a union
republic within the USSR” to “Ukraine – an independent state”. On 19 June 1991, the
Verkhovna Rada of the Ukrainian SSR adopted Resolution No. 1056-XII “On the Concept
of the new Constitution of Ukraine” (1991), which consolidated the relationship between
the citizen, the state, and society as the main object of constitutional regulation. On 28
June 1996, the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine adopted and enacted the new Constitution of
Ukraine (1996), which established the priority of human values and democracy in
Ukraine.
In accordance with the principles of the political system of Ukraine provided for in this
regulatory document, its structure consists of three levels. The highest category includes
the principles and norms that have the highest legal force and characterise the
constitutional system of Ukraine. As for the general principles based on which the political
system as a whole is formed, they belong to the second level. It should be noted that it
in fact details the principles of the constitutional order. The third level consists of
approaches that regulate the status of a particular category of subjects of the political
system, and the algorithm for implementing various types of political activities (Sych,
2020).
It is worth noting that among the set of principles that determine the political system of
Ukraine, it is popular sovereignty that is fundamental. This is conditioned by the fact that
it consolidates the source of power and the “coordinate system” in the political sphere.
Accordingly, the only source of power and bearer of sovereignty in Ukraine is the people,
who exercise power through state and local government bodies. As for the principle of
the highest social value of a person, it characterises the axiological orientation of the
JANUS.NET, e-journal of International Relations
e-ISSN: 1647-7251
VOL. 16, Nº. 2
November 2025-April 2026, pp. 216-230
Evolution of the Political Regime in Ukraine: from Independence to the present
Oleksandr Sych, Dmytro Dzvinchuk, Ihor Debenko, Bohdan Hryvnak, Daryna Sekh
221
political system and regime in Ukraine. The Constitution of Ukraine (1996) establishes
the principle of republicanism, according to which the establishment of the highest state
authorities occurs either directly by the people or by representative bodies.
Defining for all elements of the political system is the principle of democracy, the essence
of which is the democracy of political consciousness and regime. In close connection with
this principle is the principle of transparency, which determines the implementation of
unhindered dissemination of information flows in the context of the political and legal
system (Apakhayev et al., 2017; Ongan et al., 2025). In addition to the above principles,
the principles on the basis of which the establishment and development of the political
regime in Ukraine takes place include: Unitarianism, social and legal state, separation of
powers, legality, legal equality, the rule of law, and the guarantee of local self-
government. Analysing their essence, it should be noted that Ukraine is developing a
democratic political system, which is based on pluralism.
As for the second level of the foundations of the political system of Ukraine, they cover
secularism, dynamism, and the role autonomy of the subjects of this system. Thus, they
are characterised by a constitutional and legal nature, while detailing the content of the
constitutional foundations of the political system. Examples of the third level of principles
include: the multi-ethnic nature of the Ukrainian people, subsidiarity, and the ubiquity of
local self-government or community groups. Their essence consists in expressing the
specifics of various spheres of political life of citizens, asserting the status of specific
subjects of the political system. The combination of the above principles reveals the main
vectors of the establishment of a political regime in modern Ukraine, which involve
consideration of the specific characteristics of the political system.
Structure and Transformation of the Political System of Ukraine
The system of structural elements of the political system of Ukraine includes: the
institution of presidential power, the parliament, and the government. The first one
should be understood as a specially created system of higher power, which is aimed at
implementing sovereignty and ensuring the independence of the country through the
effective functioning of various state authorities. The legitimisation of the institution of
the presidency through a referendum or free elections indicates its constitutional
consolidation as a mechanism of representative form of public power of the people
(Galymzhan et al., 2020). An analysis of its historical development shows that the
president is characterised by four main functions, namely guaranteeing and protecting,
coordinating, constitutive, and representative. This is explained by the fact that the
president acts as a guarantor of the Constitution of Ukraine, its sovereignty, and also
contributes to ensuring human and civil rights and freedoms. The president coordinates
the activities of public authorities so that they are characterised by high efficiency and
prevent a political crisis. During the implementation of the constitutive function, the
president defines and implements the main vectors of Ukraine’s domestic and foreign
policy. As for the representative function in the activities of the president, it is reflected
in the international arena and in the organisation of public power based on the institution
of civil society. The constitutional status of the president is developing, and therefore,
there are positions in the scientific doctrine regarding the expediency of transferring
certain powers to specialised bodies. For example, I.B. Debenko (2011) suggests that it
JANUS.NET, e-journal of International Relations
e-ISSN: 1647-7251
VOL. 16, Nº. 2
November 2025-April 2026, pp. 216-230
Evolution of the Political Regime in Ukraine: from Independence to the present
Oleksandr Sych, Dmytro Dzvinchuk, Ihor Debenko, Bohdan Hryvnak, Daryna Sekh
222
is necessary to introduce changes to the status of the president, namely, to give him the
opportunity to be a participant in the legislative process and to have his own rule-making
powers. Based on this, the researcher’s opinion provides for the establishment of
presidential control over the rule-making activities of state authorities. The approach
proposed by the researcher allows considering the special role of the president in the
context of protecting and implementing constitutional legality. Thus, what is common
between the conclusions in these papers is that the legal status and functions of the
president of Ukraine in the field under study are clearly defined by law, and therefore,
can be expanded in the context of the establishment of new specialised institutions.
In general, the institution of presidential power is one of the most important links in the
context of the functioning of the political system of Ukraine. This is consolidated in the
provisions of the Constitution of Ukraine (1996), according to which it is the president
who is endowed with the status of head of state. The president’s powers cover a wide
range of issues, in particular, decision-making on national security, implementation of
foreign and national policy, and higher personnel issues. This list is not exhaustive, since
the activities of the institution of presidential power are systematic and cover, among
other things, the right to initiate legislative initiatives or impose a veto (Romanyuk,
2020).
An equally important role in the development of a civil and democratic society is played
by the institution of the parliament, local self-government bodies, the ombudsman,
elections, and referendums (Ketners, 2025). It is worth noting that parliamentarism is
characteristic of various stages of the historical development of Ukraine. For example,
the power that the Grand Prince of Kyiv possessed was limited, since it was implemented
in cooperation with the consent of the prince’s armed forces. As for the period of the
country’s independence, it is worth noting that the new stage was started in 1990. This
is conditioned by the fact that for the first time, the elections to the Verkhovna Rada of
the Ukrainian SSR were implemented considering the principles of pluralism, since parties
opposed to the Communist Party (which were grouped under the name People’s Council)
took part in them. Subsequently, the activities of the Verkhovna Rada of the Ukrainian
SSR became permanent, which were governed by the norms of the temporary
regulations. Thus, the Verkhovna Rada of the Ukrainian SSR was reformed into a
parliamentary-type institution even before Ukraine’s independence. After the adoption of
the Constitution of Ukraine (1996), the Parliament of Ukraine was defined as the main
legislative body, whose activities were aimed at passing laws, approving the budget, and
implementing monitoring of government activities. In modern Ukraine, the Verkhovna
Rada has the status of a single-chamber authority and, accordingly, consists of 450
people’s deputies. The activity of the Parliament of Ukraine has many vectors, but its
ultimate goal is to ensure and develop a democratic system of government. Thus, it
promotes the realisation of the voice and interests of the people in decision-making,
control over the government and authorities, and coordinates the actions of the
authorities with constitutional principles.
As for the subjects of power, they also have specifics, since they are characterised by
their own regulatory framework, purpose, functions, and procedure for making decisions.
Accordingly, the Cabinet of Ministers of Ukraine is obliged to adhere in the course of its
activities to the general principles of legal regulation, namely: the rule of law, good
governance, division of state power, continuity, and collegiality. At the same time, its
JANUS.NET, e-journal of International Relations
e-ISSN: 1647-7251
VOL. 16, Nº. 2
November 2025-April 2026, pp. 216-230
Evolution of the Political Regime in Ukraine: from Independence to the present
Oleksandr Sych, Dmytro Dzvinchuk, Ihor Debenko, Bohdan Hryvnak, Daryna Sekh
223
tasks are clearly defined in the Law of Ukraine No. 794-VII “On the Cabinet of Ministers
of Ukraine” (2014), which ensures the constitutional rights and freedoms of citizens. In
this case, the legal status of the government is formed from competence, which includes:
powers, subject matter, and functions. The Cabinet of Ministers belongs to the category
of subjects of general competence, as it coordinates the work of other central executive
bodies, including ministries. It is important to ensure compliance with laws, the
Constitution, and human and civil rights in the course of its activities. Its competence
covers a number of public relations, including: economic, labour, socio-economic, legal,
and others related to the activities of the state.
Thus, the political system of Ukraine consists of elements whose activities complement
each other. This shows that all its links play an important role in the context of the
establishment of a political regime and, accordingly, should be developed at a high level.
The holistic development of political institutions is aimed at consolidating the democratic
foundations and principles on the basis of which public life is ensured. The analysis of
each of the elements allows us to characterise the political regime in Ukraine, which is
based on the ideas of democracy, pluralism, protection of human and civil rights and
freedoms. Based on the above analysis, it is advisable to consider the activities of these
elements in the process of forming a political regime in different periods of Ukraine’s
development (Figure 1).
Figure 1. Stages of development of political regime in Ukraine
Source: compiled by the authors.
The period 1991-1994 was characterised by general institutional weakness and low
legitimacy of the authorities. This was influenced by several factors, namely: the
unwillingness of political actors to structure their activities; the lack of democratic
experience in solving political problems; parties were not the main political actors. Based
on this, the specifics of this period were the rapid loss of legitimacy by the institutions of
power. The lack of institutionalisation during this period was especially evident in the
JANUS.NET, e-journal of International Relations
e-ISSN: 1647-7251
VOL. 16, Nº. 2
November 2025-April 2026, pp. 216-230
Evolution of the Political Regime in Ukraine: from Independence to the present
Oleksandr Sych, Dmytro Dzvinchuk, Ihor Debenko, Bohdan Hryvnak, Daryna Sekh
224
absence of effective checks on power, with the executive branch largely left
unchallenged. This initial phase was largely shaped by the legacy of the Soviet system
and the newly independent state's struggles to establish stable governance
(Yanyshivskyi, 2025).
The 1994-1998 period saw a shift toward increased political influence of the president
and a fragmented Verkhovna Rada following the 1994 parliamentary elections. This era,
under President Leonid Kuchma, witnessed the adoption of the 1996 Constitution, which
granted the president sweeping powers, including in administrative, legislative, and
personnel matters. These powers transformed the president into a hegemonic figure,
capable of independently steering the political direction of the state. The privatization
process (1998-2000) further consolidated the influence of political and business elites,
contributing to the rise of an oligarchic-bureaucratic system (Tsurkan-Saifulina &
Popelnytska, 2023). The transition was marked by the increasing centralization of power,
where business moguls began to shape the political sphere through control over media
outlets and political parties (Ilychok et al., 2024).
The presidency of Viktor Yushchenko (2005-2010) introduced a shift toward a
parliamentary-presidential republic, reinforcing the principles of electoral democracy.
However, the political landscape remained unstable due to the fragmented nature of the
Ukrainian political elite and a lack of cohesion in the legislature. The Orange Revolution
of 2004 marked a pivotal moment, leading to the consolidation of democratic
mechanisms but not the natural evolution of democracy. Yushchenko’s failure to establish
control over the country’s political apparatus resulted in significant instability, and the
Party of Regions, led by Viktor Yanukovych, rose to power in 2006. This shift marked the
onset of adversarial authoritarianism, where key political decisions were influenced by
competing elites. By 2012, following electoral victories, the regime had shifted to a form
of consolidated authoritarianism under Yanukovych (Semenenko et al., 2024).
The 2014-2016 period was transformative, catalyzed by the Euromaidan protests and
the ousting of Yanukovych. This led to a semi-competitive authoritarian regime, often
termed “soft” presidential-oligarchic authoritarianism. The consolidation of power in the
hands of President Petro Poroshenko was coupled with the formation of patronage
networks involving the President, Prime Minister, and the People’s Front party. This
regime was marked by informal power consolidation, soft repressions, and pressure on
opposition forces. Reforms in the police, army, and decentralisation during this period
signalled attempts at democratic consolidation, but they were hindered by the
persistence of oligarchic control over the state (Semenenko et al., 2021).
After the presidential elections in 2019, the institutions of political and ideological
pluralism were restored in Ukraine. In modern Ukrainian society, the freedom of
ideological positions of citizens, including in relation to political activities, is being
consolidated and ensured. The current vector of political development of Ukraine is aimed
at achieving a consolidated democracy. For this purpose, Ukraine is implementing
political reforms, dynamically developing mechanism for cooperation with the European
Union, and opening up prospects for participation in regional projects envisaged by the
modernised Three Seas concept (Sekh, 2023). On the Europeanization axis, Ukraine has
increasingly aligned its policies with EU standards, particularly after the Association
Agreement between the European Union and Ukraine (2014), which fostered reforms in
JANUS.NET, e-journal of International Relations
e-ISSN: 1647-7251
VOL. 16, Nº. 2
November 2025-April 2026, pp. 216-230
Evolution of the Political Regime in Ukraine: from Independence to the present
Oleksandr Sych, Dmytro Dzvinchuk, Ihor Debenko, Bohdan Hryvnak, Daryna Sekh
225
areas such as trade, energy, and decentralization. These reforms demonstrate Ukraine’s
commitment to EU integration. However, progress is slowed by internal political
fragmentation, resistance to certain reforms, and external geopolitical pressures,
particularly from Russia. While Ukraine has made steady advancements in adopting EU
norms, its efforts to fully integrate with EU governance and legal frameworks remain
inconsistent, especially in the areas of rule of law and governance reforms.
Symbolisation and Mythologisation of the Political System in Ukraine
After Ukraine declared its independence, the country set out on a path of democratic
development, which was marked by shifts in spiritual and cultural values. These reforms
aimed to improve the public’s well-being, but they also led to contradictions in public
consciousness, often reflecting deep social fragmentation. As S.F. Moore and B.G.
Myerhoff (2020) noted, such transitions in state values and ideals make it difficult to
consolidate a unified public consciousness, particularly when outdated political norms
persist. This duality is a critical challenge in post-Soviet states, where political
socialization can be manipulated to shape public opinion. In Ukraine, this challenge was
compounded by the rise of oligarchic control over mainstream media, preventing the
intellectuals and media from becoming effective change agents (Cassani & Tomini, 2020;
Aleman et al., 2021). Instead of providing a unifying force, these sectors became tools
for legitimizing the status quo.
Symbolisation in Ukraine’s political context refers to the use of images and symbols that
replace real aspects of political life. These symbols often carry only a conditional
resemblance to the issues they represent, yet, they are perceived by the public as
authentic. As S. Hellmeier and M. Bernhard (2023) explain, political actors in Ukraine
have utilized symbolisation to construct certain political narratives, which helped them
maintain power by appealing to the emotional and psychological aspects of citizens.
Symbolisation is particularly powerful in the post-Soviet context, where it substitutes real
political realities with idealized images of the state. For example, the political imagery
surrounding Ukraine's independence in 1991, as well as the symbolic use of the
“Euromaidan” protests in 2014, were used by political elites to establish legitimacy and
foster national unity, despite the underlying fragmentation and instability (Drescher,
2020). This approach, while potentially strengthening political authority, also creates
opportunities for manipulation, as symbols can obscure the real challenges facing the
population.
Symbolisation in Ukraine is not a temporary phenomenon but has been embedded in the
political culture since independence. It continues to shape political legitimacy through a
substitution of political reality. For example, political actors have used symbols like the
“national hero” or “enemy” to justify actions, whether by framing protests as acts of
patriotism or labelling political opposition as traitorous (Lai, 2020). Symbolisation
increases symbolic capital, which can foster political loyalty, but it can also alienate
citizens when the symbols lose their connection to real-world issues.
Connected to symbolisation is mythologisation, the process of creating political myths
that simplify complex realities for public consumption. M. Feischmidt (2020) argues that
political myths are constructed through language and discourse, transforming ordinary
political actions into narratives that resonate with the masses. Political actors use myths
JANUS.NET, e-journal of International Relations
e-ISSN: 1647-7251
VOL. 16, Nº. 2
November 2025-April 2026, pp. 216-230
Evolution of the Political Regime in Ukraine: from Independence to the present
Oleksandr Sych, Dmytro Dzvinchuk, Ihor Debenko, Bohdan Hryvnak, Daryna Sekh
226
to shape perceptions, often by creating simplified dichotomies – such as the “good vs.
evil” narrative in political discourse.
In Ukraine, mythologisation has been a strategic tool for political actors to improve the
public’s perception of the regime. Political figures have constructed myths around events
like the Maidan revolutions, portraying them as a fight for freedom and democracy, while
often overlooking the broader political and social challenges. E. Arbatli and D. Rosenberg
(2021) note that political mythologies help to shift the public’s focus away from deeper
political issues by emphasizing symbolic victories, such as national identity or territorial
integrity, while ignoring critical problems like corruption or governance failures.
Mythologisation, as M. Saud et al. (2020) point out, not only shapes collective memory
but also individual behavior, influencing how citizens engage with the political system. It
constructs a distorted political reality where certain actors are either elevated as heroes
or demonized as enemies of the state, diverting attention from more pressing issues.
This process has contributed to the deformation of political discourse, where the true
nature of political struggles is masked by mythological narratives that obscure the real
political dynamics.
The combined forces of symbolisation and mythologisation in Ukraine have both positive
and negative consequences. On the one hand, they have helped solidify political
legitimacy by appealing to the national sentiment, especially during times of crisis like
the annexation of Crimea or the war with Russia. However, they have also created a
polarized political environment in which symbolic victories overshadow substantive
reforms. The influence of these processes on the population’s political consciousness can
sometimes result in passivity, as citizens are drawn into mythological narratives rather
than engaging critically with the political system (Dzvinchuk et al., 2018). As I. Stihi
(2022) observes, political actors can use these tools to reshape public opinion, not only
to defend their positions but also to redistribute power resources. The manipulation of
public discourse through myth and symbolism is particularly dangerous in unstable
political conditions like Ukraine's, where political struggles often escalate into
manipulative battles for control over public consciousness.
The processes of symbolisation and mythologisation have played crucial roles in shaping
Ukraine's political regime from 1991 to the present. These mechanisms allow political
actors to construct political realities that justify their actions, while simultaneously
diverting attention from deeper issues. The study of these processes is essential for
understanding how political regimes can evolve through symbolic manipulation, often at
the cost of genuine democratic progress. As Ukraine continues to face political instability
and external threats, the role of symbolic politics will remain central to both maintaining
power and shaping national identity.
Conclusions
The political regime in Ukraine has undergone significant transformation since
independence, with a dominant shift towards democratic development. However, ongoing
socio-political and economic challenges require continuous efforts to consolidate
democratic values and ensure transparency. The study shows that Ukraine's political
trajectory is characterized by alternating phases of democratization and authoritarian
JANUS.NET, e-journal of International Relations
e-ISSN: 1647-7251
VOL. 16, Nº. 2
November 2025-April 2026, pp. 216-230
Evolution of the Political Regime in Ukraine: from Independence to the present
Oleksandr Sych, Dmytro Dzvinchuk, Ihor Debenko, Bohdan Hryvnak, Daryna Sekh
227
regression. From the early 1990s to 2004, a struggle between power centers defined the
period as competitive authoritarianism. The Orange Revolution of 2004 marked a
breakthrough towards electoral democracy, which was balanced by political forces rather
than individual strategies. However, 2010-2012 saw an authoritarian rollback under
Yanukovych, which was overturned by the Revolution of Dignity, reinvigorating
democratization efforts.
The political regime evolved further between 2016-2019, shifting from electoral
democracy to competitive authoritarianism again. By 2019, democratic development
resumed, alongside mechanisms to protect citizens' rights and freedoms. The study
highlights the role of symbolisation and mythologisation in Ukraine’s political system,
where political elites use these tools to gain power and reform the state. Symbolisation,
through imagery and ideas, substitutes the real actions of political actors, creating a
distorted narrative. The study advocates for a moral political policy that considers
citizens' views and adheres to national traditions, contributing to a more open civil
society. Future research should focus on minimizing the negative effects of manipulative
symbolisation in politics.
In terms of legal reform, the study recommends changes to the Constitution of Ukraine
to define the president's role more clearly, particularly in guaranteeing state sovereignty
and coordinating national actions. It also suggests establishing a Commissioner for the
Rights of Servicemen to protect military personnel's rights, given the ongoing war. This
new position would be appointed by the president and endowed with control and
investigative powers, ensuring greater protection for Ukraine’s armed forces.
References
Aleman, J. A., Lee, D. W., & Woods, D. (2021). Exceptional politics: Why regimes declare
states of emergency. Retrieved from https://www.v-
dem.net/media/publications/uwp_42_final_1.pdf
Apakhayev, N., Koishybaiuly, K., Khudaiberdina, G., Urisbayeva, A., Khamzina, Z. A., &
Buribayev, Y. A. (2017). Legal basis for ensuring freedom of access to information on the
operation of state administration bodies in Kazakhstan. Journal of Advanced Research in
Law and Economics, 8(3), 722-729. https://doi.org/10.14505/jarle.v8.3(25).04
Arbatli, E., & Rosenberg, D. (2021). United we stand, divided we rule: How political
polarisation erodes democracy. Democratization, 28(2), 285-307.
Association Agreement between the European Union and Ukraine. (2014). Government
Portal. Retrieved from https://www.kmu.gov.ua/en/yevropejska-integraciya/ugoda-pro-
asociacyu
Berezovska-Chmil, O. (2020). Neo-totalitarian trends in the modern world: Challenges
for Ukraine. In Materials of the All-Ukrainian Scientific-Practical Conference with
International Participation “Totalitarianism as a System of Destruction of National
Memory” (pp. 496-499). Lviv National Medical University named after Danylo Halytskyi.
Bjørnskov, C., & Rode, M. (2020). Regime types and regime change: A new dataset on
democracy, coups, and political institutions. The Review of International Organizations,
15, 531-551.
JANUS.NET, e-journal of International Relations
e-ISSN: 1647-7251
VOL. 16, Nº. 2
November 2025-April 2026, pp. 216-230
Evolution of the Political Regime in Ukraine: from Independence to the present
Oleksandr Sych, Dmytro Dzvinchuk, Ihor Debenko, Bohdan Hryvnak, Daryna Sekh
228
Buribayev, Y., Khamzina, Z., Belkhozhayeva, D., Meirbekova, G., Kadirkulova, G., &
Bogatyreva, L. (2020). Human dignity - The basis of human rights to social protection.
Wisdom, 16(3), 143-155. https://doi.org/10.24234/WISDOM.V16I3.404
Cassani, A., & Tomini, L. (2020). Reversing regimes and concepts: from democratization
to autocratization. European Political Science, 19, 272-287.
Constitution (Basic Law) of Ukraine. (1978). Retrieved from
https://zakon.rada.gov.ua/laws/show/888-09#Text
Constitution of Ukraine. (1996). Retrieved from
https://zakon.rada.gov.ua/laws/show/254к/96-вр#Text
Debenko, I. B. (2011). Symbolization as the problem of the pseudo moral politics
(Ukrainian context). Gilea, 48(6), 582-591.
Declaration on State Sovereignty of Ukraine. (1990). Retrieved from
https://zakon.rada.gov.ua/laws/show/55-12#Text
Drescher, S. (2020). Political symbolism in modern Europe: Essays in honour of George
L. Mosse. Routledge.
Dzvinchuk, D., Zahrai, L., & Kononenko, V. (2018). Ukrainian priority: Nation, society,
culture. Vasyl Stefanyk Precarpathian National University.
Erdmann, G., & Engel, U. (2007). Neopatrimonialism revisited: Beyond a catch-all
concept. GIGA Working Paper No 16, 1-39. http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.909183
Feischmidt, M. (2020). Memory-politics and neonationalism: Trianon as mythomoteur.
Nationalities Papers, 48(1), 130-143.
Galchynskyi, L. (2020). Estimation of the price elasticity of petroleum products’
consumption in Ukraine. Equilibrium Quarterly Journal of Economics and Economic Policy,
15(2), 315-339. https://doi.org/10.24136/eq.2020.015
Galymzhan, B., Kanatbek, A., Akylbek, I., Akmaral, S., Yernazar, B., Akzada, M.,
Zhannat, T., & Indira, B. (2020). Constitutional rights of the president in determining the
economic development strategy for the period of his office (based on the experience of
Central Asian countries). Journal of Legal, Ethical and Regulatory Issues, 23(6), 1-12.
Gandhi, J., Noble, B., & Svolik, M. (2020). Legislatures and legislative politics without
democracy. Comparative Political Studies, 53(9), 1359-1379.
Gerschewski, J. (2013). The three pillars of stability: Legitimation, repression, and co-
optation in autocratic regimes. Democratization, 20(1), 13-38.
https://doi.org/10.1080/13510347.2013.738860
Hellmeier, S., & Bernhard, M. (2023). Regime transformation from below: Mobilization
for democracy and autocracy from 1900 to 2021. Comparative Political Studies, 12(56),
1858-1890.
Helms, L. (2022). Political oppositions in democratic and authoritarian regimes: A state-
of-the-field(s) review. Government and Opposition, 58(2), 391-414.
JANUS.NET, e-journal of International Relations
e-ISSN: 1647-7251
VOL. 16, Nº. 2
November 2025-April 2026, pp. 216-230
Evolution of the Political Regime in Ukraine: from Independence to the present
Oleksandr Sych, Dmytro Dzvinchuk, Ihor Debenko, Bohdan Hryvnak, Daryna Sekh
229
Herrfahrdt-Pähle, E., Schlüter, M., Olsson, P., Folke, C., Gelcich, S., & Pahl-Wostl, C.
(2020). Sustainability transformations: Socio-political shocks as opportunities for
governance transitions. Global Environmental Change, 63, 102097.
Ilychok, B., Novakivskyi, I., Marmulyak, A., Shkolyk, T., Chernyshev, A., & Tsyrkin, A.
(2024). The effectiveness of public governance of Ukraine’s budget security: Current
state and trends. Democratic Governance, 17(2), 30-45.
https://doi.org/10.56318/dg/2.2024.30
Ketners, K. (2025). Adaptation of state security to modern military operations and
terrorist risks in the world. Space and Culture India, 13(1), 1-5.
https://doi.org/10.20896/e3p2jm77
Ketners, K., Jarockis, A., & Petersone, M. (2024). State budget system improvement for
informed decision-making in Latvia. Scientific Bulletin of Mukachevo State University.
Series Economics, 11(3), 86-99. https://doi.org/10.52566/msu-econ3.2024.86
Lai, T. H. (2020). Political vandalism as counter‐speech: A defense of defacing and
destroying tainted monuments. European Journal of Philosophy, 28(3), 602-616.
Law of Ukraine No. 794-VII “On the Cabinet of Ministers of Ukraine”. (2014). Retrieved
from https://zakon.rada.gov.ua/laws/show/794-18#Text
Moore, S. F., & Myerhoff, B. G. (2020). Symbol and politics in communal ideology: Cases
and questions. Cornell University Press.
Ongan, S., Gocer, I., & Işık, C. (2025). Introducing the New ESG-Based Sustainability
Uncertainty Index (ESGUI). Sustainable Development, 33(3), 4457–4467.
https://doi.org/10.1002/sd.3351
Prymush, M. V., & Yarosh, Ya. B. (2020). Political discourse on functioning of political
parties in Ukraine. Bulletin of the Donetsk National University named after Vasyl Stus, 5,
22-28.
Resolution of the Verkhovna Rada of the Ukrainian SSR No. 1056-XII “On the Concept of
the new Constitution of Ukraine”. (1991). Retrieved from
https://zakon.rada.gov.ua/laws/show/1056-12#Text
Resolution of the Verkhovna Rada of the Ukrainian SSR No. 1427-XII “On Proclamation
of Independence of Ukraine”. (1991). Retrieved from
https://zakon.rada.gov.ua/laws/show/1427-12#Text
Romanyuk, O. I. (2020). Transformation of the political regime in Ukraine after the 2019
presidential and parliamentary elections. Modern Society: Political Sciences, Sociological
Sciences, Cultural Sciences, 2(19), 147-160.
Saha, S., & Sen, K. (2021). The corruption-growth relationship: Does the political regime
matter? Journal of Institutional Economics, 17(2), 243-266.
Saud, M., Ida, R., & Mashud, M. I. (2020). Democratic practices and youth in political
participation. International Journal of Adolescence and Youth, 25(1), 800-808.
Sekh, D. A. (2023). The Three Seas concept and Ukraine’s national interests. In Collection
of Scientific Papers “Nationalism Studies” (pp. 49-56). Lileia-NV.
JANUS.NET, e-journal of International Relations
e-ISSN: 1647-7251
VOL. 16, Nº. 2
November 2025-April 2026, pp. 216-230
Evolution of the Political Regime in Ukraine: from Independence to the present
Oleksandr Sych, Dmytro Dzvinchuk, Ihor Debenko, Bohdan Hryvnak, Daryna Sekh
230
Semenenko, O., Onofriichuk, V., Tolok, P., Rieznik, V., & Momot, D. (2024). Analysis of
Ukraine’s external military-economic relations during the war with Russia. Scientific
Bulletin of Mukachevo State University. Series “Economics”, 11(1), 71-82.
https://doi.org/10.52566/msu-econ1.2024.71
Semenenko, O., Solomitsky, A., Onofriichuk, P., Chernyshova, I., Skurinevska, L., &
Pekuliak, R. (2021). Methodical approach to assessing level of the state energy security
and its influence on the national security and economy of the country. Scientific Horizons,
24(4), 90-96. https://doi.org/10.48077/scihor.24(4).2021.90-96
Shaigorodskyi, Y. Z. (2021). Political culture as a factor in the development of a
democratic political regime in Ukraine. In Changes in Political Regimes and Prospects for
Strengthening Democracy in Ukraine (pp. 304-351). Kuras Institute of Political and Ethnic
Studies of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine.
Stihi, I. (2022). Mythologizing the political gesture, a vector of myth perpetuation in
contemporary society. The dance of reality and Alejandro Jodorowsky. Concept, 24(1),
22-30.
Sych, O. M. (2020). Modern Ukrainian nationalism: Political science aspects of paradigm
transformation. Institute of Political and Ethnonational Studies named after I.F. Kuras.
Tsurkan-Saifulina, Y. V., & Popelnytska, Y. D. (2023). Discrimination and rights violations
of minorities in Ukraine: Evaluating ethno-national policies for reform. Pakistan Journal
of Criminology, 15(4), 29-47.
Yanyshivskyi, T (2025). Strategies for combating separatism implemented in post-
communist countries: Lessons for Ukraine. Democratic Governance, 18(1), 64-76.
https://doi.org/10.56318/dg/1.2025.64
Zelenko, G. I., Bevs, T. A., Brekharya, S. G., Karmazina, M. S., Kovalevskyi, V. O.,
Kondratenko, O. Yu., & Shaigorodskyi, Yu. Zh. (2021). Changes in political regimes and
prospects for strengthening democracy in Ukraine. Kuras Institute of Political and Ethnic
Studies of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukrain
OBSERVARE
Universidade Autónoma de Lisboa
e-ISSN: 1647-7251
VOL. 16, Nº. 2
November 2025-April 2026
231
EU-NIQUE PERSPECTIVES? ANALYSING CONTRASTING POSITIONS ON THE
RUSSO-UKRAINIAN CONFLICT WITHIN THE EU
MATILDE RAMOS
matilderamos7373@gmail.com
MSc student in International Economics and Management at the School of Economics and
Management (FEP) of the University of Porto (Portugal). She holds a bachelor’s degree in
Languages and International Relations from the University of Porto since July 2024. During her
studies, she participated in the Erasmus+ Programme, spending one semester at the Free
University of Brussels (ULB). Her academic interests include European Union affairs, foreign
direct investment, and bureaucracy studies.
FILIPA SÁ
fsadias0905@gmail.com
MSc student in International Economics and Management at the School of Economics and
Management (FEP) of the University of Porto (Portugal). She holds a bachelor’s degree in
Languages and International Relations from the University of Porto since July 2024 and was
awarded the University of Porto Merit Scholarship (2023/2024). During her studies, she
participated in the Erasmus+ Programme, spending one semester at the Free University of
Brussels (ULB). Her academic interests include European Union affairs, international trade, and
corruption studies.
NOA SILVA
noaxs@outlook.pt
MA student in History, International Relations and Cooperation at the Faculty of Arts and
Humanities (FLUP) of the University of Porto (Portugal). She holds a bachelor’s degree in
Languages and International Relations from the University of Porto since July 2024. During her
studies, she participated in the Erasmus+ Programme, spending one semester at the Freie
Universität Berlin (FU). Her academic interests include European Union affairs, feminist
approaches to international relations, and peacebuilding in post-conflict scenarios.
MARIANA RESENDE
marianasousaresende@gmail.com
Postgraduate student in International Relations and Political and Economic Diplomacy at Lusófona
University of Porto (Portugal). She holds a bachelor’s degree in Languages and International
Relations from the University of Porto since July 2024. During her studies, she participated in the
Erasmus+ Programme, completing one semester at Eötvös Loránd University (ELTE) in Budapest.
Her academic interests include soft power, the role of culture in shaping Grand Strategy,
economic diplomacy, and international relations.
ISABELLA CASTRO
isabellabmcastro@gmail.com
MA student in Marketing at Católica Porto Business School, UCP (Portugal). She holds a
bachelor’s degree in Languages and International Relations from the University of Porto since
July 2024. As part of her undergraduate studies, she participated in the Erasmus+ Programme
and completed one semester at Goethe University Frankfurt. Her academic interests include
business strategy, consumer behavior, and international affairs.
~
JANUS.NET, e-journal of International Relations
e-ISSN: 1647-7251
VOL. 16, Nº. 2
November 2025-April 2026, pp. 231-254
EU-Nique Perspectives? Analysing contrasting positions
on the Russo-Ukrainian conflict within the EU
Matilde Ramos, Filipa Sá, Noa Silva, Mariana Resende, Isabella Castro
232
Abstract
This research examines the various positions adopted by the European Union (EU) Member
States in response to the ongoing Russo-Ukrainian conflict, since its reignition on February
24th, 2022. The study is based on a content discourse analysis of speeches and official
statements released by individual EU Member States, namely Poland, owing to its historical
relations with the Eastern Bloc and its noteworthiness in accommodating refugees; followed
by Germany and its pivotal role in providing military equipment to Ukraine; and lastly,
Hungary, due to the contentious public statements issued by its Prime Minister, Viktor Orbán.
The analysis is complemented by an examination of the broader foreign policy orientations of
these countries that shape their responses. The primary aim is to assess whether the Union
maintains a cohesive consensus on the conflict or if diverging positions weaken its support for
Ukraine. Ultimately, through a juxtaposition of opinions issued by Poland, Germany, and
Hungary against the overall EU stance, we conclude that the European Union’s support for
Ukraine is not as robust and cohesive as expected.
Keywords
European Union, Russo-Ukrainian conflict, Member States, European Commission, consensus.
Resumo
Esta investigação analisa as várias posições adotadas pelos Estados-Membros da União
Europeia (UE) em resposta ao conflito russo-ucraniano em curso, desde o seu recomeço em
24 de fevereiro de 2022. O estudo baseia-se numa análise do conteúdo de discursos e
declarações oficiais divulgados por cada um dos Estados-Membros da UE, nomeadamente a
Polónia, devido às suas relações históricas com o Bloco de Leste e à sua notoriedade no
acolhimento de refugiados; seguida pela Alemanha e o seu papel fundamental no
fornecimento de equipamento militar à Ucrânia; e, por último, a Hungria, devido às
declarações públicas controversas do seu primeiro-ministro, Viktor Orbán. A análise é
complementada por um exame das orientações mais amplas da política externa desses países
que moldam as suas respostas. O objetivo principal é avaliar se a União mantém um consenso
coeso sobre o conflito ou se posições divergentes enfraquecem o seu apoio à Ucrânia. Em
última análise, através de uma justaposição das opiniões emitidas pela Polónia, Alemanha e
Hungria contra a posição geral da UE, concluímos que o apoio da União Europeia à Ucrânia
não é tão robusto e coeso como se esperava.
Palavras-chave
União Europeia, conflito russo-ucraniano, Estados-Membros, Comissão Europeia, consenso.
How to cite this article
Ramos, Matilde, Sá, Filipa, Silva, Noa, Resende, Mariana, Castro, Isabella (2025). EU-Nique
Perspectives? Analysing contrasting positions on the Russo-Ukrainian conflict within the EU.
Janus.net, e-journal of international relations. VOL. 16, Nº. 2, November 2025-April 2026, pp. 231-
254. DOI https://doi.org/10.26619/1647-7251.16.2.13
Article submitted on 14th September 2024 and accepted for publication on 24th July
2025.
JANUS.NET, e-journal of International Relations
e-ISSN: 1647-7251
VOL. 16, Nº. 2
November 2025-April 2026, pp. 231-254
EU-Nique Perspectives? Analysing contrasting positions
on the Russo-Ukrainian conflict within the EU
Matilde Ramos, Filipa Sá, Noa Silva, Mariana Resende, Isabella Castro
233
EU-NIQUE PERSPECTIVES? ANALYSING CONTRASTING
POSITIONS ON THE RUSSO-UKRAINIAN CONFLICT WITHIN
THE EU
1
MATILDE RAMOS
FILIPA SÁ
NOA SILVA
MARIANA RESENDE
ISABELLA CASTRO
Introduction
The European Union’s (EU) swift response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine marked a turning
point in history, with the Union playing a pivotal role in the conflict and its stance evolving
over time. The origins of the feud trace back to the NATO Summit in 2008, in which Ukraine’s
potential membership in the alliance sparked tensions with Russia (NATO, 2008), with Putin
warning that “Moscow would view any attempt to expand NATO to its borders as a ‘direct
threat’” (Dawar, 2008). Notwithstanding, it was Russia’s annexation of Crimea in 2014 that
led to the ongoing hostilities and instability in Eastern Ukraine, with this tension peaking on
February 24
th
, 2022 (Raik et al., 2024). In the early 2000s, despite the EU showing interest
in promoting a “ring of friends” with Ukraine (Raik et al., 2024), the EU leaders recognised
that Russia's major gas supply to numerous Member States was an insurmountable issue
(Maurer et al., 2023).
Nevertheless, Russia’s invasion on February 24
th
, 2022 appears to have significantly shifted
the limits of action that Member States were willing to undertake, in response to major
disruptions in Europe’s security architecture (Maurer et al., 2023), marking a departure from
its previous reluctance to a more defined stance. The leaders of the European Commission
and the European Council condemned Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and affirmed that the “EU
stands firmly by Ukraine and its people”, which was later followed by a similar joint statement
by the Member States (Bacarani, 2023: p. 10) and a joint recognition of threat (Håkansson,
2023). Not only did the EU pursue its goals through civilian means while simultaneously
1
We thank Professor Joana Castro Pereira (9D12-C70C-0362), lecturer in Foreign Policy Diplomacy at the
Faculty of Arts and Humanities of the University of Porto, for her invaluable guidance and constructive feedback
during this article's research and writing process. We are also grateful to two anonymous reviewers for their
thoughtful suggestions and feedback on a previous draft of this article.
JANUS.NET, e-journal of International Relations
e-ISSN: 1647-7251
VOL. 16, Nº. 2
November 2025-April 2026, pp. 231-254
EU-Nique Perspectives? Analysing contrasting positions
on the Russo-Ukrainian conflict within the EU
Matilde Ramos, Filipa Sá, Noa Silva, Mariana Resende, Isabella Castro
234
providing military assistance to Ukraine, but it was also swift in adapting to a new situation,
noted by Raik et al. (2024) as the EU’s “geopolitical awakening”. Consequently, the European
Union “massively expanded sanctions against Russia” and adopted “unprecedented restrictive
measures” (European Council, 2024a), underscoring its dedication to upholding European
values in the face of external threats.
More recently, in 2024, the EU leaders reasserted their commitment: “More than ever, we
remain united and true to our promise to support Ukraine for as long as it takes” (European
Council, 2024b). Nonetheless, as the Russo-Ukrainian conflict remains unresolved, it
continues to pose a persistent challenge in European geopolitics, testing the cohesion and
effectiveness of the European Union in responding to the unfolding events.
Despite numerous studies concerning the war in Ukraine, a gap in the literature prevails
regarding the contrasting EU positions on the Russo-Ukrainian conflict, to the best of our
knowledge. Hence, this study makes an original contribution to bridge this gap and find a
response to yet-to-be-answered questions: are EU countries truly united in their support for
Ukraine? Have political leaders adopted similar stances vis-a-vis the war? Thus, this article is
based on a content discourse analysis of individual EU Member States, namely Poland, owing
to its historical relations with the Eastern Bloc and the pertinence it has in accommodating
refugees; followed by Germany and its pivotal role in providing military equipment for
Ukraine; and lastly, Hungary, due to the contentious public statements issued by its Prime
Minister.
More precisely, these three countries were also chosen due to their varying degrees of
hostility towards Russia, with Poland displaying the greatest animosity and Hungary the least.
Notably, Poland perceives Russia as an existential threat (Poletti, 2023; Stolle, 2023). In
contrast, Hungary's Eurosceptic government maintains a strategic economic partnership with
Russia, arguably making it the EU Member State with the closest relationship with Russia
(Kovács, 2022; Durakcay, 2023). Lastly, Germany was picked for its dominant role in the EU,
as the Union's most populous state, i.e. it has the largest representation in the European
Parliament, coupled with its strong adherence to EU positions and directives (Whitworth,
2021). This selection offers a variety of perspectives, thereby providing a valuable basis for
comparing EU cohesion in the context of the war.
This article is structured as follows: Section II provides an overview of existing literature
regarding the response of the EU and the chosen countries in previous crises (Brexit and
COVID-19
2
), Russia’s annexation of Crimea, and its invasion of Ukraine in 2022. Section III
outlines the foreign policy orientations of Poland, Germany, and Hungary, particularly in
relation to the Russia-Ukraine conflict, providing the essential context for later analysis.
Section IV explains the methodology used and Section V covers the discourse analysis of
international newspapers, speeches and official statements pertaining to Poland, Germany,
and Hungary, concerning the 2022 Russo-Ukrainian war. Section VI analyses the results by
integrating insights from both the foreign policy orientations and the discourse analysis.
Lastly, Section VII concludes.
2
Both were selected due to their more recent nature when compared to other EU crises (e.g. the 2008 subprime
financial crisis), as well as their distinct characteristics, one being political and economic and the other social and
sanitary.
JANUS.NET, e-journal of International Relations
e-ISSN: 1647-7251
VOL. 16, Nº. 2
November 2025-April 2026, pp. 231-254
EU-Nique Perspectives? Analysing contrasting positions
on the Russo-Ukrainian conflict within the EU
Matilde Ramos, Filipa Sá, Noa Silva, Mariana Resende, Isabella Castro
235
A brief review of the literature on EU response to crises
Scepticism exists regarding Europe's ability to replicate its COVID-19 success story in the
face of the Russo-Ukrainian conflict (Poletti, 2023). Even though the Member States diverging
responses to the sanitary crisis revealed a lack of unity, the national lockdown measures and
approaches eventually converged, with most countries opting to adopt a combination of
similar policies (Pacces & Weimer, 2020).
In the context of the British exit from the Union, the EU-27 governments maintained a tough
negotiation stance, in agreement with the Commission in rejecting any British attempts at
“cherry-picking”, even at the potential risk of a no-deal Brexit. The block's firm stance was
due to, among other reasons, the apprehension that allowing the United Kingdom (UK) to
reap the benefits of EU integration, without sharing the associated costs, may instigate the
withdrawal of other EU Member States (Walter, 2020). Germany played a significant role in
Brexit, as it became one of the architects of the consensus in the EU and took the lead in
securing a common EU position (Taggart et al., 2023). Although Poland had a strong
economic interest in adopting a flexible Brexit agreement, and occasionally criticised the
Commission’s stance (Taggart et al., 2023), the country adopted a consensual European
attitude in the negotiations. Conversely, Hungary showed sympathy towards the UK, framed
as being persecuted by the Brussels elite for daring to go against it, thus, establishing a clear
parallel between itself and the UK, regarding the treatment received from the EU (Meislová
& Szent-Iványi, 2021).
Overall, during Russia’s annexation of Crimea in 2014, the EU held back by not playing an
active role in the resolution process, “which was left to France and Germany, acting as
mediators in the ad hoc ‘Normandy framework’ that also included Ukraine and Russia” (Raik
et al., 2024: p. 7). Therefore, it is argued that “the conflict in Ukraine (...) is the most vivid
manifestation of the failure to create a stable and durable European security order” (Sakwa,
2015: p. 555). European countries adopted different measures, ranging from economic
sanctions to political support, and, despite the lack of consensus regarding military aid, the
EU still explored ways to improve its provision of military equipment (Pezard et al., 2017).
Nonetheless, the perception of the Russian threat differed between countries, since those
bordering Russia perceived a bigger threat, with Poland showing the greatest concern. Still,
Germany supported continuous dialogue with Russia (Daehnhardt & Handl, 2018). Although
Member States shared different understandings of what Russia’s actions would mean to them,
they expressed support for Ukraine, maintaining a consensus regarding sanctions since the
beginning of the Crimean crisis (Pezard et al., 2017).
However, Hungary became increasingly reluctant to the sanction policy. Despite expressing
solidarity at first, Hungary questioned the rationale behind the restrictions imposed, while
maintaining its economic relations with Moscow. Contrarily, Poland condemned the
annexation of Crimea and advocated for even stricter sanctions against Russia (Zajaczkowski,
2017), with Poles supporting economic aid and sanctions, even if it heightened the risk of
conflict (Forbrig, 2015). Additionally, despite once being the largest consumer of Russian gas
in Europe (Liadze et al., 2022), Germany stopped perceiving the Russian Federation as a
strategic partner, beginning to increase deterrence and defence options against it. In fact,
the country was a leader in implementing EU and United States (US) sanctions, while actively
sustaining a measured military response (Daehnhardt & Handl, 2018).
JANUS.NET, e-journal of International Relations
e-ISSN: 1647-7251
VOL. 16, Nº. 2
November 2025-April 2026, pp. 231-254
EU-Nique Perspectives? Analysing contrasting positions
on the Russo-Ukrainian conflict within the EU
Matilde Ramos, Filipa Sá, Noa Silva, Mariana Resende, Isabella Castro
236
Regarding Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022, the development of the sanction policy was
handled by the Commission to a greater degree than usual, to prevent information leaks and
increase the EU’s cohesion (Håkansson, 2023). President von der Leyen sought to eliminate
the EU’s energy dependency on Russia (Bacarani, 2023), although the negotiations on the
sixth sanctions package were particularly difficult, as Hungary blocked it for quite some time.
Studies conclude that the European Union has grown from the earlier crises that affected
integration (Ladi & Tsarouhas, 2020; Radaelli, 2022), with the experience gained from the
COVID-19 pandemic having been used to push forward the Commission’s policy agenda
(Håkansson, 2023). Empirical analysis further suggests that the President of the Commission
contributed to developing a united response to the crisis (Bacarani, 2023).
Strategic Foreign Policy Frameworks: Poland, Germany and Hungary
To establish a foundation for the following discourse analysis, this section examines the
foreign policy strategies of Poland, Hungary, and Germany, particularly focusing on their
approach to the Russia-Ukraine conflict. This contextual background can help elucidate how
each country's strategic priorities shape and are reflected in their political discourse.
Poland’s Foreign Policy
Poland's foreign policy, in the context of Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine, is influenced
by its historical memory, geographical position and strategic culture (Komarnytskyy, 2024;
Sus, 2025). Deep-rooted in centuries of conflict with powerful neighbours, particularly
Germany and Russia, Poland's perception of the latter as a neo-imperialist power with
expansionist ambitions underpins its main strategic objective: to defeat Russia, secure
Ukraine's victory and, consequently, eliminate the military threat on its eastern border
(Doeser, 2018; President of the Republic of Poland, 2023c). Despite improved relations with
Germany since the Cold War, the country’s 2020 National Security Strategy clearly identifies
Moscow as the greatest threat to national security, emphasising that: “The most serious
threat is the neo-imperial policy of the authorities of the Russian Federation, also pursued by
means of military force.” (National Security Strategy of the Republic of Poland, 2020, p. 6;
Komarnytskyy, 2024; Sus, 2025).
In addition to this approach is Poland’s “Atlanticist” orientation, which perceives the United
States as the indispensable security provider in Europe through NATO (Mikulova, Simecka,
2013; Komarnytskyy, 2024; Lisiakiewicz, 2018). Poland's determination to maintain a robust
American military presence on its soil and strengthen Polish-American partnerships reflects
the centrality of the US in its foreign and security policy (Poland's Foreign Policy Strategy:
2017-2021, n.d.; Komarnytskyy, 2024; Sus, 2025). This is largely due to the country's heavy
reliance on NATO's ability to deter Russia in case of an attack, making Washington its main
strategic ally. Indeed, proof of this was the joint visit by Tusk and Duda, long-time political
adversaries, to the US capital in March 2024 (Komarnytskyy, 2024; Sus, 2025).
Furthermore, since the war in Ukraine began, Poland has firmly established itself as a pivotal
player, offering substantial military, humanitarian and political assistance to Kyiv, while also
strengthening military cooperation between Ukraine and the US (Ministry of Foreign Affairs
Republic of Poland, n.d; Tyler, 2022; Komarnytskyy, 2024). However, it seems this proactive
JANUS.NET, e-journal of International Relations
e-ISSN: 1647-7251
VOL. 16, Nº. 2
November 2025-April 2026, pp. 231-254
EU-Nique Perspectives? Analysing contrasting positions
on the Russo-Ukrainian conflict within the EU
Matilde Ramos, Filipa Sá, Noa Silva, Mariana Resende, Isabella Castro
237
stance aligns with the country’s ambition to lead on the Eastern Flank and amplify its influence
within the EU and NATO (Komarnytskyy, 2024; Lisiakiewicz, 2018). In fact, Komarnytskyy
(2024) argues that Warsaw considers a Ukrainian victory to be vital not only for limiting
Russian influence, but also for stabilising Eastern Europe and achieving a balanced power
dynamic on the European continent.
As a result, Poland is establishing itself as a key intermediary between the West and the East,
promoting EU norms and advocating for the European integration of Eastern Partnership
countries such as Ukraine, Moldova, and Georgia (Brusylovska, 2022; Ministry of Foreign
Affairs Republic of Poland, n.d.; Lisiakiewicz, 2018). Before 2022, Warsaw's influence on EU
Eastern policy was limited, but the war has enhanced its role, allowing Poland to play a more
decisive part in discussions about European security (Brusylovska, 2022; Komarnytskyy,
2024).
Notwithstanding Poland's consistent support for Ukraine since the government transition in
December 2023, domestic political dynamics paint a more nuanced picture (Sus, 2025).
Though Prime Minister Donald Tusk stressed there is broad consensus on supporting Ukraine
due to Poland's own security concerns, tensions within institutions persist (Tilles, 2024). Sus
(2025) highlights that, with President Andrzej Duda and the government representing
opposing political camps, these divisions create friction that constrain the decision-making
process in foreign policy. This polarisation hinders Poland's role amid geopolitical instability,
showing that despite general consensus, evolving domestic factors still influence its external
behaviour (Sus, 2025).
Germany’s Foreign Policy
Germany’s foreign policy has historically been guided by a set of structural principles, such
as rejection of war as a legitimate means of settling disputes, respect for human rights,
support for democratic governance, as well as commitment to multilateralism, European
integration and the transatlantic link with the United States (Blumenau, 2022; Wittlinger,
2010).
Until 2014, Berlin favoured an approach of engagement with Moscow, treating Russia as a
strategic partner in the post-Cold War order (Chivvis & Rid, 2009). However, Russia’s
annexation of Crimea and its military support for separatists in eastern Ukraine directly
challenged Germany’s commitment to rejecting the use of force and upholding international
law, while also striking at the foundations of European integration and transatlanticism –
central for its positioning in the international arena (Siddi, 2016).
In light of these developments and faced with Moscow's opposition to European integration
in the post-Soviet space – perceived as a threat to its strategic interests –, Germany found
itself under pressure to recalibrate its foreign policy (Siddi, 2016). At the same time, the
United States' firm condemnation of Russia's actions tested Berlin's balance between
transatlantic commitments and its traditional cooperative approach towards Moscow. As a
result, and despite growing political tensions, Germany took on a key role in preserving EU
consensus on sanctions, while trying to keep channels of dialogue open with the Kremlin
(German Institute for International and Security Affairs, 2021).
JANUS.NET, e-journal of International Relations
e-ISSN: 1647-7251
VOL. 16, Nº. 2
November 2025-April 2026, pp. 231-254
EU-Nique Perspectives? Analysing contrasting positions
on the Russo-Ukrainian conflict within the EU
Matilde Ramos, Filipa Sá, Noa Silva, Mariana Resende, Isabella Castro
238
Such environment reinforced the centrality of multilateralism and cooperation in post-1949
German foreign policy, reflected in its strong commitment to European integration and close
alignment with EU principles and objectives on peace, security, and prosperity (Daehnhardt,
2018; Siddi, 2016; Germany Institute for International and Security Affairs, 2021). Similarly,
its long-standing commitment to NATO complements this orientation, with Germany acting
mainly as a mediator among Member States and within the EU-NATO relationship, promoting
consensus and coordinated action (Ewers-Peters, 2020).
While traditionally marked by a cautious and pacifist approach to security, with an aversion
to using military means to achieve political goals, German foreign policy underwent a decisive
change after Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022 (Siddi, 2016; DGAP, n.d.; Scholz, 2022).
The Zeitenwende speech, announced by Olaf Scholz, marked the abandonment of decades of
military restraint (Scholz, 2022; Corblin, 2022). After three decades in which German military
resources were focused primarily on international crisis management, Scholz declared that
the territorial defence of Europe, within the framework of NATO, would become the
fundamental priority. Simultaneously, Berlin intensified coordination with its transatlantic
allies and became one of the main providers of military support to Ukraine (Scholz, 2022;
Graf et al., 2023; NATO, 2023; Al Jazeera, 2023).
Hungary’s Foreign Policy
As for Hungary, its foreign policy is strongly pragmatic, focused on defending national
interests and promoting strategic political and economic objectives (About Hungary, 2020;
Hettyey, 2020; Schmidt & Glied, 2024). The country’s policy documents underline the need
to ensure a comprehensive and stable security policy, prioritising energy, food, resources and
market security. In parallel, there is also an emphasis on the importance of promoting
Hungary's regional interests and strengthening the stability of Central and South-Eastern
Europe (Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Hungary, 2011; Varga, 2000).
Since the 1990s, Hungarian foreign policy has had a Euro-Atlantic orientation, though the
Orbán governments have distinguished themselves by their increasingly Eurosceptic positions
(Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Hungary, 2011; Varga, 2000). Despite the country’s
membership in the EU, it appears to pride itself on the “independence” of its foreign policy,
which it defines as both “Hungarian and sovereign” and “balanced and patriotic” (About
Hungary, 2020; About Hungary, 2023d). As mentioned by Hettyey (2020), Hungary’s recent
foreign policy adjustments can be considered a part of the country’s growing process of de-
Europeanization, i.e. the rejection of the restraints and practices imposed by the EU.
This distinct foreign policy direction is evident in the way the Orbán governments have broken
with several European norms and values (e.g. Hungary’s close relationship with Russia), using
the country’s economic wellbeing as a justification for its dissidence from common EU policy,
thus making Hungary stand as an outlier in the Union (Hettyey, 2020; Lamour, 2023).
Furthermore, the country’s long-term goal is the creation of mutually beneficial relations with
all great powers, an aim made evident by the government’s “global opening” policy launched
in 2010 – the Eastern Opening (2010) and Southern Opening (2015) initiatives –, with the
aim of strengthening political and, above all, economic ties with “emerging countries”, such
as China or Russia (Hettyey, 2020; Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Hungary, 2011; Schmidt &
Glied, 2024).
JANUS.NET, e-journal of International Relations
e-ISSN: 1647-7251
VOL. 16, Nº. 2
November 2025-April 2026, pp. 231-254
EU-Nique Perspectives? Analysing contrasting positions
on the Russo-Ukrainian conflict within the EU
Matilde Ramos, Filipa Sá, Noa Silva, Mariana Resende, Isabella Castro
239
In spite of this mostly pragmatic approach, there is a moral and value-based facet in
Hungary’s foreign policy, which the Foreign Affairs and Trade Minister has stressed as one of
its most important aspects: the rights of Hungarian minorities abroad, particularly in the
countries of its neighbourhood, such as Romania, Ukraine or Serbia (About Hungary, 2019;
About Hungary, 2021; Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Hungary, 2011). Therefore, even before
the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine war, the relationship between Hungary and Ukraine was
strained because of the latter’s treatment of its Hungarian minority. In fact, Minister Szijjártó
stated that ethnic Hungarians in Ukraine “continue to face serious challenges” (About
Hungary, 2021). Since the 2010s, tensions have escalated due to demands for “full collective
rights” and dual citizenship, which is prohibited by the Ukrainian Constitution (Schmidt &
Glied, 2024).
Simply put, Orbán – the longest-serving head of government in the EU – seeks to balance
Western alliances with a strategic partnership with Russia, ensuring Hungary access to cheap
energy. This pragmatism, coupled with the rejection of exclusive alliances, sustains the
country's economic and energy security, while also legitimising value-based policies guided
by national interests, such as the protection of Hungarian minorities abroad, especially in
Ukraine (Lamour, 2023; Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Hungary, 2011).
Methodology
This research is based on a discourse content analysis, using an interpretative approach. This
method involved a detailed reading of the selected speeches, identifying points of
convergence and divergence in the positions expressed by the countries under analysis, which
made it possible to map the predominant narratives and discursive tensions related to the
conflict. For this purpose, official statements made by representatives of the selected
countries, along with credible international newspapers and media sources were used. Priority
was given to national government websites, speeches at renowned international
organisations, such as the United Nations and EU institutions, as well as reliable, publicly
accessible outlets (e.g. The Guardian, Reuters, and the Atlantic Council).
To facilitate a thorough but focused analysis of discourse, a total of 45 discourses were
selected, of which 22 were analysed in detail based on their relevance and reliability. These
were deemed pertinent according to three main criteria: institutional representativeness (i.e.
utterances by heads of state, foreign ministers or official government sources), thematic
pertinence (direct references to the Russo-Ukrainian conflict, EU foreign policy, or national
security), and temporal proximity to the conflict. As a result, all selected statements were
issued between February 2022 and April 2024
3
, enabling a focused discussion on the positions
expressed by Poland, Germany, and Hungary regarding the Russo-Ukrainian conflict since
February 24
th
, 2022. Furthermore, the keywords used in the search process were: “EU”,
“war”, “Ukraine”, “Russia”, “Germany”, “Poland”, “Hungary”, “unity” and “statement”.
3
The latter marked the beginning of the study's development and served as the cut-off point for data collection.
JANUS.NET, e-journal of International Relations
e-ISSN: 1647-7251
VOL. 16, Nº. 2
November 2025-April 2026, pp. 231-254
EU-Nique Perspectives? Analysing contrasting positions
on the Russo-Ukrainian conflict within the EU
Matilde Ramos, Filipa Sá, Noa Silva, Mariana Resende, Isabella Castro
240
Discourse analysis
Building on the foreign policy framework outlined in Section III, the subsequent discourse
analysis examines how Poland, Germany, and Hungary have publicly positioned themselves
in the Russian-Ukrainian conflict.
Poland
On February 24
th
, 2022, the Polish president, Andrzej Duda, issued a statement to the nation,
in which he condemned Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, making it clear that Ukraine could “count
on full support from Poland”. He further stated that Poland had repeatedly warned against
the illusion of negotiating with Putin and that it was crucial “for the whole Western community
today to be united and to adopt a firm common position on Russia”. According to Duda, to
“resist evil”, “the most important thing is unity, unity and above all unity”. He further
emphasised the US’s pivotal role in global security, guaranteeing that Poland's borders were
safe thanks to NATO allies (President of the Republic of Poland, 2022a). In an annual speech
to Poland's parliament in 2023, he expressed that “There will be no European security and,
most likely, no effective way to block Russian imperialism without absolutely close Euro-
Atlantic cooperation, without a strong European-American partnership” (Krzysztoszek, 2025).
Later in August 2022, after talks with Volodymir Zelensky, the Polish president stated that
Ukraine was fighting for its independence and there could not be a “business as usual” with
Russia, reinforcing that Poland is Ukraine's supporting partner, its ally and a home for families
seeking shelter (President of the Republic of Poland, 2022b). President Andrzej Duda affirmed
that Poland had received almost six million Ukrainian refugees by September 2022,
highlighting the good conditions provided to them, and the empathy from the Polish people
who had also suffered Russian occupation during World War II. Once again, Duda fervently
criticised Russia and added that Poland was the country “Ukraine can always count on”
(President of the Republic of Poland, 2022c).
In February 2023, one year after the war broke out, the Polish president reinforced Poland's
solidarity with Ukraine, “Because what unites us – Poles and Ukrainians – is a great love of
freedom.”. Duda further declared that “NATO's role has increased with more countries joining
the Alliance” and that “Europe is finally ending its dependence on Russian oil and gas”. Once
again, he stressed that the “United States is the guarantee of security on the old continent”.
The President reiterated that for Ukraine to have a chance of winning, “we need unity, unity
and more unity of the whole free world” (President of the Republic of Poland, 2023a).
Moreover, the Polish president declared that “the West should help Ukraine join the EU and
NATO as well as helping it win its defensive war against Russia”, concluding it was his opinion
on “how this war should end” (President of the Republic of Poland, 2023b). In addition, Polish
Foreign Minister, Radoslaw Sikorski, equally defended the United States and its support for
Ukraine. He emphasised that Russia and their allies wish to destroy “the stability of America
and to create victory where it is not deserved”, as they are “hungry to show that the US is
weak, ineffective, and hopelessly divided”. However, Sikorski remained positive, mentioning
the possibility to “achieve peace through strength”, and connecting it to the Polish case. He
stated that “in 1999, Poland was invited to join NATO and the transatlantic family” and that
“victorious Ukraine may follow a similar path” (Atlantic Council, 2024).
JANUS.NET, e-journal of International Relations
e-ISSN: 1647-7251
VOL. 16, Nº. 2
November 2025-April 2026, pp. 231-254
EU-Nique Perspectives? Analysing contrasting positions
on the Russo-Ukrainian conflict within the EU
Matilde Ramos, Filipa Sá, Noa Silva, Mariana Resende, Isabella Castro
241
Germany
Throughout the conflict, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz has remained adamant regarding his
support for Ukraine, stating that Germany would “continue to support Ukraine with financial,
humanitarian aid, but also with weapons” (Zakaria, 2023), and claiming to be Ukraine’s
strongest supporter in Europe. Since the outbreak of the war, not only has Germany
welcomed an abundance of refugees (BR24, 2024), but has also “made available more than
27.8 billion euros in bilateral support for Ukraine” (German Federal Foreign Office, 2024).
Across Scholz’s speeches, he often stresses the importance of assertiveness and unity in
preventing Russia's victory in Ukraine: “It is necessary that Putin understands that he will
not succeed with his invasion and this imperialistic aggression and that he has to withdraw
troops” (Zakaria, 2023). Furthermore, Scholz underscored that a Russian victory would mean
“the end of Ukraine as a free, independent and democratic state” and “the destruction of a
peaceful order in Europe”. The Chancellor also addressed the concerns regarding the costs of
the war by saying that if Russia goes unstopped, “the financial and political price that we
would then have to pay would be many times higher than all the expense of our support for
Ukraine today and in the future”. Moreover, he emphasized his commitment by stating that,
in 2024, “Germany will invest 2% of its GDP in defence this year, and also every following
year and the 2020s, 2030s and beyond” (BR24, 2024).
In his speeches, Scholz repeatedly underlines the need for the EU to do more for the
resolution of the conflict: “Are we actually doing enough to signal to Putin that we are in for
the long haul?” (BR24, 2024). Already in 2023, the German leader had highlighted that,
despite the diplomatic efforts being made to resolve the conflict, Russia is ultimately opting
for war (Permanent Mission of the Federal Republic of Germany to the United Nations, 2023).
Furthermore, concerning Germany's energy dependency on Russia, Scholz has unequivocally
stated and sought to reinforce that Germany remains resilient in the absence of access to
Russian energy, and will continue to prosper despite the adversity: “There is no economic
crisis in Germany. There is no gas shortage” (Zakaria, 2023).
Notwithstanding his verbal support, Scholz has been hesitant in supplying Ukraine with
weapons. According to The Guardian newspaper, in early 2024, the Chancellor refused to
“supply Taurus long-range cruise missiles to Ukraine despite an outcry among Western allies”.
He reasoned that to operate and target these missiles, German soldiers would need to go to
Ukraine, increasing the tension between Berlin and Moscow: “I am the chancellor, so that’s
it”. In this sense, Scholz expresses a desire to avoid a direct conflict between Russia and
NATO, claiming that “there will be no ground troops, no soldiers on Ukrainian soil sent there
by European countries or NATO states” (Taylor, 2024), even in the case of an escalation.
Hungary
In February 2022, the Hungarian Prime Minister, Viktor Orbán, issued a statement showing
agreement with the EU’s decisions, in which Hungary “jointly condemned Russia’s military
action against Ukraine and decided to unite in imposing sanctions”, but they did not “extend
to energy”, therefore “energy supplies to Hungary and the other Member States of the EU
are guaranteed”. The Prime Minister restated his consent with the EU’s views and NATO’s
position by declaring that “we agreed that we need to behave responsibly, and that rash and
irresponsible statements will only worsen the situation and endanger the security of
JANUS.NET, e-journal of International Relations
e-ISSN: 1647-7251
VOL. 16, Nº. 2
November 2025-April 2026, pp. 231-254
EU-Nique Perspectives? Analysing contrasting positions
on the Russo-Ukrainian conflict within the EU
Matilde Ramos, Filipa Sá, Noa Silva, Mariana Resende, Isabella Castro
242
Europeans”. He equally clarified that he will always prioritise Hungary’s national interests,
thus “we shall not allow anyone to draw Hungary into this war” (About Hungary, 2022a).
After the war broke out, Orbán reiterated the country’s interest in staying out of it: “We
condemn the war, especially that it is here in our neighbourhood; we say no to violence, we
stand together with our allies (...) but the most important thing is that Hungary should stay
out of this war conflict” to prevent “the price of war being paid by Hungarians” (Kovács,
2022). In fact, the need to rein in inflation, sustain energy security and the exemption of the
energy sector from sanctions (“we will definitely avoid sanctioning energy supply” sustained
Orbán) are major concerns of the Hungarian government, as well as the country’s
humanitarian commitment towards Ukraine. As government spokeswoman, Alexandra
Szentkirályi said (regarding Ukrainian refugees): “Hungary helps everyone, we are prepared
to help everyone, no one is left without help” (Kovács, 2022).
Péter Szijjártó, Hungary’s Minister of Foreign Affairs and Trade, publicly reinforced the notion
that Budapest should prevent NATO’s engagement in the war, which could lead to an
escalation of the conflict. After explaining the overlap of interests between Hungary and
NATO, he stated, “Hungary is not blocking any decisions on the EU Member States delivering
more weapons to Ukraine, but it will neither supply arms nor allow lethal aid to cross its
territory” (About Hungary, 2022b).
One year after the conflict began, the Prime Minister said that “Europe is drifting into the war
in these very minutes, it is doing a dangerous balancing act”, affirming that European
countries are “already indirectly at war with Russia” (Reuters, 2023). Although Orbán
understood the stance of Poland, he alleged that the conflict could have unfolded differently
if Russia had had the guarantee that Ukraine would not be joining NATO. Furthermore, Orbán
criticised EU sanctions and their harm to the Hungarian economy, stating that “the Brussels
super-state” and its support for Ukraine had only lifted the conflict from a “local regional war”
to “an all-European level” (Reuters, 2023).
Orbán further reaffirmed his concern for ethnic Hungarians in Ukraine, who also lost their
lives in the war: “Hungary is in a unique position as Ukraine is not far away. We have ethnic
minorities living in Ukraine, and they are part of the war. They are conscripted, they are
soldiers in the Ukrainian army, and they die. So, we lose lives, Hungarian lives…” (Bloomberg
Television, 2023). Nevertheless, Hungary considers that the solution is not to encourage the
war and provide Ukraine with funds and weapons, but to promote a peaceful resolution, which
is “to save lives” (Bloomberg Television, 2023). For the Prime Minister, although “our heart
is with Ukrainian suffering”, it “is obvious that there is no victory for the poor Ukrainians on
the battlefield”, and this is why Hungary’s perspective on the war “does not belong to the
mainstream European approach” (Bloomberg Television, 2023).
The Prime Minister also warned of the danger of a possible “third world war (...) knocking on
our door” and insisted on the idea of rejecting Ukraine’s adherence to NATO, which he
considers a provocative action that would only worsen the conflict: “We have to be very, very
careful (…) If any Western country would send boots on the ground, that would mean a direct
war between the West and Russia” (About Hungary, 2023a). Furthermore, Minister Szijjártó
reaffirmed that Hungary pursues “a foreign policy based on national interests and will not
accept any pressurising from the outside, therefore we will cooperate with Russia in securing
Hungary’s energy supply in the upcoming period just like before” (About Hungary, 2023b).
JANUS.NET, e-journal of International Relations
e-ISSN: 1647-7251
VOL. 16, Nº. 2
November 2025-April 2026, pp. 231-254
EU-Nique Perspectives? Analysing contrasting positions
on the Russo-Ukrainian conflict within the EU
Matilde Ramos, Filipa Sá, Noa Silva, Mariana Resende, Isabella Castro
243
Additionally, during the domestic parliamentary debate on Ukraine joining the EU, Orbán
considered that the EU’s treatment of Ukraine shows “blatant bias in the European Union”
and “inevitably destroys the authority of the European Union’s institutions” (About Hungary,
2023c). He concluded that “Ukraine’s membership of the European Union in this form is in
direct opposition to Hungary’s interests” and although “Ukraine can and must be helped (...)
no one should want us to destroy Hungary in the process” (About Hungary, 2023c).
Lastly, Viktor Orbán stated that even if the Visegrád Four (V4)
4
share divergent positions on
the war, they all agree that “Russia's attack was a gross violation of international law”. When
meeting with the V4, and despite the country’s economic relation with Russia, Orbán
uncharacteristically proclaimed that “Hungary does not want a common border with Russia
again”, defending that “the most important basic principle of Hungarian national security is
that there should be an entity to the east of us that is located between Russia and Hungary”
(About Hungary, 2024).
Discussion
The outbreak of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine has exacerbated existing political
divisions within the European Union, particularly between Eastern and Western Member
States, deepening their geopolitical fissures over how to handle the Russian threat. From the
get-go, this reality stands in stark contrast to the official discourse of top EU leaders, who
declared: “We stand together more than ever and remain committed to our promise to
support Ukraine for as long as necessary.” (European Council, 2024b). It is this tension
between rhetorical unity and divergent national responses that forms the backdrop against
which the positions of Poland, Germany, and Hungary must be examined.
While European governments have generally agreed on key objectives – such as reducing
their reliance on Russian gas and mitigating socio-economic disruptions – their approaches
to achieving these goals have diverged, exposing significant cracks in cohesion and strategic
depth (ECFR Comms, 2022). In fact, although extensive, the sanctions imposed have had
uneven and delayed effects. In the first half of 2022, for example, Russia maintained financial
stability and posted a record current-account surplus, driven by high commodity prices and
reduced imports, suggesting a limited short-term impact on its war effort (Demertzis et al.,
2022). Thus, even as unity was maintained in principle, through sanctions on Moscow and
financial and humanitarian support for Kyiv, national stances continued to reflect each
country’s foreign policy traditions and strategic cultures.
Through the discourse analysis, it appears that Poland’s stance and support for Ukraine have
remained stable since the beginning of the war, in alignment with the EU, with high and
consistent support across the country’s political spectrum (Stolle, 2023). This stability can be
attributed to several factors. Firstly, Poland’s close relationship with NATO and the United
States, combined with its historically rooted “anti-Russian” sentiment, aligns with its foreign
policy that identifies Moscow as the principal threat to national and European security, while
reinforcing its “Atlanticist” orientation and reliance on the United States as a security
4
An alliance between the Czech Republic, Poland, Hungary, and Slovakia. “The Visegrad Group (also known as the
“Visegrad Four” or simply “V4”) reflects the efforts of the countries of the Central European region to work together
in a number of fields of common interest within the all-European integration” (Visegrad Group, 2024).
JANUS.NET, e-journal of International Relations
e-ISSN: 1647-7251
VOL. 16, Nº. 2
November 2025-April 2026, pp. 231-254
EU-Nique Perspectives? Analysing contrasting positions
on the Russo-Ukrainian conflict within the EU
Matilde Ramos, Filipa Sá, Noa Silva, Mariana Resende, Isabella Castro
244
guarantor (Mikulova & Šimečka, 2013; Stolle, 2023; National Security Strategy of the
Republic of Poland, 2020; Komarnytskyy, 2024).
Secondly, the war in Ukraine represents an existential concern for the country, given its
geographical proximity and historical experience with Russian aggression, which heightens
its perception of direct vulnerability (Zajaczkowski, 2017). Lastly, Poland’s support for
Ukraine’s integration into Western institutions is reinforced by a “siege mentality,” reflecting
anxieties about sovereignty and the country’s position between stronger and expansionist
powers. A stable and democratic Ukraine is therefore viewed as essential for regional security
and for consolidating Poland’s role as a regional leader and “gateway to the West”
(Zajaczkowski, 2017; Brusylovska, 2022).
Notwithstanding, the country’s response extends beyond military support. As the country
with “the largest per-capita influx of refugees under the liberal conditions of the Temporary
Protection Directive
5
in 2022” (Letki et al., 2024: p. 18), Poland allowed Ukrainians to remain,
work, and access social security and healthcare (Jankowski & Gujski, 2022), strengthening
its political influence within both EU (Brusylovska, 2022; Lisiakiewicz, 2018) and NATO
frameworks (Komarnytskyy, 2024). Nevertheless, Poland’s “maximalist” strategy – seeking
Russia’s strategic defeat and full Ukrainian integration into NATO and the EU – can sometimes
clash with the more cautious positions of several Western European Members, potentially
hindering consensus when Warsaw advocates for broader and faster military aid than others
are prepared to provide (Komarnytskyy, 2024; Stolle, 2023). Moreover, domestic political
tensions, such as those between President Duda and the Tusk government, indicate that even
a broadly pro-Ukraine stance can be internally fragmented (Sus, 2025).
In comparison, Germany has adopted a more cautious approach to the conflict, remaining
broadly aligned with the EU in supporting sanctions, humanitarian assistance and military
aid, which underscores Berlin’s recognition of the importance of maintaining a united front
within the Union. Nevertheless, Germany’s stance has often been accompanied by hesitancy,
reflecting efforts to reconcile the country’s post-war pacifist tradition with the evolving
security landscape (Whitworth, 2021; Stent, 2022).
Olaf Scholz's Zeitenwende speech marked a clear reorientation of the country’s foreign policy
from decades of military restraint to prioritising NATO’s territorial defence and strengthening
coordination with the United States (Scholz, 2022; Graf et al., 2023). This shift, from
diplomacy-focused engagement to a firmer security posture, signalled Germany’s intent to
defend European stability and counter Russian aggression, with Scholz’s decision to support
Ukraine reinforcing this, in a nation long reluctant to embrace military force after WWII
(Whitworth, 2021). Simultaneously, his hesitation to deliver advanced weaponry can be
closely tied to Berlin’s energy dependency and historical relations with Moscow, as escalation
risks are perceived to jeopardise broader geopolitical interests and sever remaining
diplomatic ties (Stent, 2022).
Despite initiating the Zeitenwende and committing substantial funds to defence (Scholz,
2022), Berlin has faced criticism for delays in weapons deliveries (Taylor, 2024; Gasper,
2024). Furthermore, structural limitations in military readiness raise doubts about its ability
5
Exceptional measure to provide immediate and temporary protection in the event of a mass influx or imminent
mass influx of displaced persons from non-EU countries who are unable to return to their country of origin (European
Commission, n.d.).
JANUS.NET, e-journal of International Relations
e-ISSN: 1647-7251
VOL. 16, Nº. 2
November 2025-April 2026, pp. 231-254
EU-Nique Perspectives? Analysing contrasting positions
on the Russo-Ukrainian conflict within the EU
Matilde Ramos, Filipa Sá, Noa Silva, Mariana Resende, Isabella Castro
245
to fulfil its own ambitions (Tallis, 2024). This caution, driven by fears of escalation, has slowed
EU-level decision-making and fuelled perceptions of a reactive rather than strategic approach
(Fischer, 2023).
As for Hungary, the country has followed a markedly distinct trajectory in response to the
Russia-Ukraine war, highlighting a pragmatic approach prioritising national interests, energy
security, and neutrality above EU solidarity. Budapest’s statements have, to some extent,
been incoherent with the EU’s position, which the country initially affirmed being in total
agreement with. Contrary to his earliest stance, Viktor Orbán blames the EU and NATO’s
decisions and actions for the escalation of the war, proclaiming his belief in the ineffectiveness
of the European community (About Hungary, 2020; Hettyey, 2020).
Consistent with this broader goal of safeguarding national interests, Hungary’s foreign policy
balances Western alliances with strong ties to Russia, exemplified by the “Eastern Opening”
strategy adopted in 2010, which strengthened relations with Moscow and supported energy
security and economic objectives (Schmidt & Glied, 2024; Durakcay, 2023). Orbán also
emphasises the importance of the Visegrád Group and portrays Ukraine as a buffer state
between Hungary and Russia, reinforcing his security-driven rationale (About Hungary,
2024). Meanwhile, he invokes the protection of Hungarian minorities abroad, particularly in
Ukraine, to justify some of his decisions on value-based grounds (About Hungary, 2021;
About Hungary, 2022c). This dual approach is reflected in Hungary’s international
endorsement of Ukraine's EU candidate status while opposing its full membership
domestically – an attempt to reconcile EU integration with national security concerns
(Orenstein & Kelemen, 2017; Éltető & Szemlér, 2023; Thorpe, 2023).
Nonetheless, Hungary seems to ultimately prioritise its energy security and admits to being
dependent on imports from Russia. Considering these countries’ connection (Durakcay,
2023), Orenstein and Kelemen (2017) even suggest that Hungary is Russia’s “Trojan horse”
in the EU, being therefore used to destabilise the European Union to Moscow’s advantage
(Éltető & Szemlér, 2023). In practice, this obstructive stance – from delaying sanctions
packages to opposing military aid (About Hungary, 2023b; Reuters, 2023) – coupled with
close energy and political ties with Russia, as well as a preference for negotiated settlements
over military solutions, has positioned Budapest as a consistent outlier (Hettyey, 2020;
Lamour, 2023). This has not only complicated the process of reaching a consensus but has
also undermined the credibility of the EU’s unified front.
From a strategic and political standpoint, the common narrative is becoming increasingly
fragile. Internal opposition between the desire for justice and the desire for a ceasefire at any
cost reflects the fragmented nature of the European public opinion. This tendency undermines
the cohesion of future policies and makes the EU vulnerable to political shifts within Member
States (ECFR Comms, 2022; Stolle, 2023).
The EU’s reactive, ad hoc approach, coupled with its reliance on US military capabilities, raises
doubts about its ability to sustain a coherent and effective Ukraine policy should external
conditions change or transatlantic alignment weaken (Sakwa, 2015; Raik et al. 2024): “the
weakness of European defence capabilities and hence dependence of European security on
Washington has been once again exposed by the war” (Raik et al. 2024, p.51). This
dependence, compounded by the failure to translate ambitious rearmament pledges into
concrete outcomes, underscores the persistent gap between rhetoric and implementation.
JANUS.NET, e-journal of International Relations
e-ISSN: 1647-7251
VOL. 16, Nº. 2
November 2025-April 2026, pp. 231-254
EU-Nique Perspectives? Analysing contrasting positions
on the Russo-Ukrainian conflict within the EU
Matilde Ramos, Filipa Sá, Noa Silva, Mariana Resende, Isabella Castro
246
Conclusion
This study sought to analyse the diverging positions within the EU as a collective body and
its Member States (Poland, Germany, and Hungary), regarding the Russo-Ukrainian conflict.
The empirical analysis concluded that Poland and Germany seem to show support for EU
principles, albeit for different reasons. Poland is one of Ukraine’s closest allies, as well as a
country deeply marked by Soviet repression, therefore it seems to display an “anti-Russian”
sentiment that sustains the nation's massive support. Additionally, the country is also
strongly committed to the role of NATO and the US in resolving the conflict. Furthermore,
although Germany appears to show aversion to direct conflict and remains more cautious
with military support, the country has a notorious positive stance towards Ukraine. In
contrast, Hungary prioritises national and economic interests over EU consensus, occasionally
acting in ways that challenge collective cohesion.
Overall, these cases emphasise the interplay between national foreign policy traditions and
EU-level coordination. Warsaw adopts a securitised, “Atlanticist” approach (Mikulova,
Simecka, 2013), whereas Berlin adapts its pacifist, multilateralist framework to a new security
landscape (Blumenau, 2022; Wittlinger, 2010). Meanwhile, Hungary demonstrates the
consistency of its pragmatic, non-EU centric foreign policy while simultaneously revealing
contradictions in relation to EU consensus (Orenstein & Kelemen, 2017; Éltető & Szemlér,
2023). Such divergences indicate potential vulnerabilities in the EU’s foreign policy framework
and suggest that maintaining a unified position in future crises could be an ever-present
challenge.
Notwithstanding, this study holds a few limitations. The original research was conducted
under the constraints of a strict word limit, which limited the depth of country-specific
research and also explains the restricted number of selected discourses. Subsequent revisions
tackled these constraints as much as possible, yet they still moulded the overall scope of the
study. Therefore, further research should focus on the evolution of the current EU
predicament and the distinct stance that countries such as Hungary have within the
institution. A deep-dive inquiry into the future positions of the most incoherent or ambiguous
leaders within the EU could also shed light on its ever-more apparent lack of total cohesion.
Lastly, academics could explore whether the Union can sustain more "Trojan Horses" in its
already fragile foreign policy or if there is a way to strengthen the Member States' positions
in a single European direction. Researchers could equally delve into the implications of
enlargement – a recurring theme within the EU – on conflict resolution and decision-making,
since conclusions requiring unanimity could be made more difficult when deliberated by more
members (Hertz & Leuffen, 2011).
References
About Hungary. (2019, November 13). FM: Hungarian minorities abroad is an important part
of Hungarian foreign policy. Retrieved August 6, 2025, from https://abouthungary.hu/news-
in-brief/fm-hungarian-minorities-abroad-is-an-important-part-of-hungarian-foreign-policy
About Hungary. (2020, August 27). Hungary’s foreign policy focused on promoting country’s
economic interests. Retrieved August 6, 2025, from https://abouthungary.hu/news-in-
brief/hungarys-foreign-policy-focused-on-promoting-countrys-economic-interests
JANUS.NET, e-journal of International Relations
e-ISSN: 1647-7251
VOL. 16, Nº. 2
November 2025-April 2026, pp. 231-254
EU-Nique Perspectives? Analysing contrasting positions
on the Russo-Ukrainian conflict within the EU
Matilde Ramos, Filipa Sá, Noa Silva, Mariana Resende, Isabella Castro
247
About Hungary. (2021, August 27). FM: Supporting ethnic Hungarians is key focus of Hungary’s
foreign policy. Retrieved August 6, 2025, from https://abouthungary.hu/news-in-brief/fm-
supporting-ethnic-hungarians-is-key-focus-of-hungarys-foreign-policy
About Hungary. (2022a, February 25). Prime Minister Viktor Orbán’s statement on Facebook
following a special meeting of the European Council. Retrieved May 5, 2024, from
https://abouthungary.hu/speeches-and-remarks/prime-minister-viktor-orban-s-statement-
on-facebook-following-a-special-meeting-of-the-european-council
About Hungary. (2022b, March 22). FM: War in Ukraine has entered a new phase. Retrieved
May 5, 2024, from https://abouthungary.hu/news-in-brief/fm-war-in-ukraine-has-entered-a-
new-phase
About Hungary. (2022c, April 7). PM Orbán calls for ceasefire during talks with President Putin.
Retrieved May 5, 2024, from https://abouthungary.hu/news-in-brief/pm-orban-calls-for-
ceasefire-during-talks-with-president-putin
About Hungary. (2023a, August 31). PM Orbán warns of World War 3 and calls for peace.
Retrieved May 5, 2024, from https://abouthungary.hu/news-in-brief/pm-orban-warns-of-
world-war-3-and-calls-for-peace
About Hungary. (2023b, December 1). FM: Hungary has a vested interest in preserving stable
cooperation with Russia. Retrieved May 5, 2024, from https://abouthungary.hu/news-in-
brief/fm-hungary-has-a-vested-interest-in-preserving-stable-cooperation-with-russia
About Hungary. (2023c, December 13). Speech by Prime Minister Viktor Orbán during the
parliamentary debate on Ukraine. Retrieved May 5, 2024, from
https://abouthungary.hu/speeches-and-remarks/speech-by-prime-minister-viktor-orban-
during-the-parliamentary-debate-on-ukraine
About Hungary. (2023d, September 5). FM: Hungary’s foreign policy will remain Hungarian
and sovereign. Retrieved August 6, 2025, from https://abouthungary.hu/news-in-brief/fm-
hungarys-foreign-policy-will-remain-hungarian-and-sovereign
About Hungary. (2024, February 24). Press statement by Viktor Orbán after a meeting of the
heads of government of the Visegrád Four. Retrieved May 5, 2024, from
https://abouthungary.hu/speeches-and-remarks/press-statement-by-viktor-orban-after-
ameeting-of-the-heads-of-government-of-the-visegrad-four
Al Jazeera. (2023). Germany pledges almost $3bn in new military aid to Ukraine. Retrieved
August 9, 2025, from https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/5/14/germany-to-give-2-95bn-
military-aid-to-kyiv-zelenskyy-in-berlin
Atlantic Council. (2024, February 26). Polish Foreign Minister Radosław Sikorski: ‘Helping
Ukraine is not only a good deed. It’s also a good deal.’. Retrieved May 5, 2024, from
https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/new-atlanticist/polish-foreign-minister-radoslaw-
sikorski-helping-ukraine-is-not-only-a-good-deed-its-also-a-good-deal/
Baracani, E. (2023). Ideational agenda-setting leadership: President von der Leyen and the EU
response to the invasion of Ukraine. West European Politics, 46(7), 1451–1474.
https://doi.org/10.1080/01402382.2023.2195759
JANUS.NET, e-journal of International Relations
e-ISSN: 1647-7251
VOL. 16, Nº. 2
November 2025-April 2026, pp. 231-254
EU-Nique Perspectives? Analysing contrasting positions
on the Russo-Ukrainian conflict within the EU
Matilde Ramos, Filipa Sá, Noa Silva, Mariana Resende, Isabella Castro
248
Bloomberg Television. (2023, May 23). Ukraine Can’t Win War Against Russia: Hungary’s
Orbán [Video]. YouTube. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=r8JI-
eYQylg&ab_channel=BloombergTelevision
BR24. (2024, February 17). MSC 24: Olaf Scholz about Germany in the World [Video].
YouTube. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lBKRddWPbrk
Blumenau, B. (2022). Breaking with convention? Zeitenwende and the traditional pillars of
German foreign policy. International Affairs, 98(6), 1895–1913.
https://doi.org/10.1093/ia/iiac166
Brusenbauch Meislová, M., & Szent-Iványi, B. (2021). Exploitation Opportunities for Distant
Crises: Political Framings of Brexit in the Czech Republic and Hungary. Problems of Post-
Communism, 70(1), 55–65. https://doi.org/10.1080/10758216.2021.1915162
Brusylovska, O. (2022). The role of Poland in the formulation and implementation of EU Eastern
policy. In The formation and peculiarities of the implementation of the European Union’s
Eastern policy (pp. 45–58). https://doi.org/10.30525/978-9934-26-224-1-3
Chivvis, C. S., & Rid, T. (2009). The roots of Germany's Russia policy. Survival, 51(2), 105-
122. https://doi.org/10.1080/00396330902860850
Corblin, A. (2022). A change of era (Zeitenwende) in Germany and its implications for
European integration. Robert Schuman Foundation. Retrieved August 9, 2025, from
https://www.robert-schuman.eu/en/european-issues/641-a-change-of-era-zeitenwende-in-
germany-and-its-implications-for-european-integration
Daehnhardt, P. (2018). German Foreign Policy, the Ukraine Crisis and the Euro-Atlantic Order:
Assessing the Dynamics of Change. German Politics, 27(4), 516–538.
https://doi.org/10.1080/09644008.2018.1448386
Daehnhardt, P. & Handl, V. (2018). Germany’s Eastern Challenge and the Russia–Ukraine
Crisis: A New Ostpolitik in the Making? German Politics, 27(4), 445–459.
https://doi.org/10.1080/09644008.2018.1448385
Dawar, A. (2008, April 4). Putin warns Nato over expansion. The Guardian. Retrieved May 5,
2024, from https://www.theguardian.com/world/2008/apr/04/nato.russia
Demertzis, M., Hilgenstock, B., McWilliams, B., Ribakova, E., & Tagliapietra, S. (2022). How
have sanctions impacted Russia?Bruegel. https://www.bruegel.org/system/files/2022-
10/PC%2018%202022_1.pdf
Doeser, F. (2018). Historical experiences, strategic culture, and strategic behavior: Poland in
the anti-ISIS coalition. Defence Studies, 18(4), 454–473.
https://doi.org/10.1080/14702436.2018.1502038
Durakcay, F.A. (2023, Autumn). Hungary’s position on the Russia-Ukraine war and its
implications for cooperation in the Visegrad Group. Eurasian Research Journal, 5(4), 7–26.
https://doi.org/10.53277/2519-2442-2023.4-01
ECFR Comms. (2022, June 15). Peace versus Justice: The coming European split over the war
in Ukraine. ECFR; European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR).
https://ecfr.eu/publication/peace-versus-justice-the-coming-european-split-over-the-war-in-
ukraine/?utm_source=
JANUS.NET, e-journal of International Relations
e-ISSN: 1647-7251
VOL. 16, Nº. 2
November 2025-April 2026, pp. 231-254
EU-Nique Perspectives? Analysing contrasting positions
on the Russo-Ukrainian conflict within the EU
Matilde Ramos, Filipa Sá, Noa Silva, Mariana Resende, Isabella Castro
249
Élteto, A. & Szemlér, T. (2023). Hungary in the European Union - Cooperation, Peacock Dance
and Autocracy. Comparative Southeast European Studies, 71(3), 272–299.
https://doi.org/10.1515/soeu-2022-0051
European Commission. (n.d.). Temporary protection. Retrieved May 1, 2024, from
https://home-affairs.ec.europa.eu/policies/migration-and-asylum/common-european-
asylum-system/temporary-protection_en
European Council. (2024a). EU response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Retrieved May 6,
2024, from https://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/policies/eu-response-ukraine-invasion/
European Council. (2024b, February 23). Joint statement by the President of the European
Council, the President of the European Commission and the President of the European
Parliament. Retrieved May 6, 2024, from https://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/press/press-
releases/2024/02/23/joint-statement-by-the-president-of-the-european-council-the-
president-of-the-european-commission-and-the-president-of-the-european-parliament/
Ewers-Peters, N. M. (2020). Germany Going ‘Midstream’: Balancing vs Leadership in EU-NATO
Cooperation. German Politics, 31(3), 363–380.
https://doi.org/10.1080/09644008.2020.1826439
Forbrig, J. (2015, February 1). A Region Disunited? Central European Responses to the Russia-
Ukraine Crisis. The German Marshall Fund of the United States. Retrieved March 20, 2024,
from https://www.jstor.org/stable/resrep19010
German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP). (n.d.). Zeitenwende. Retrieved August 9, 2025,
from https://dgap.org/en/research/expertise/zeitenwende
German Federal Foreign Office. (2024, June 13). For as long as it takes: Germany’s support
for Ukraine. Retrieved June 15, 2024, from https://www.auswaertiges-
amt.de/en/aussenpolitik/laenderinformationen/ukraine-node/ukraine-
solidarity/2513994#:~:text=Military%20support%20for%20Ukrain
Germany’s Institute for International and Security Affairs (2021). Germany Matters: Berlin
Must Take the Lead in Creating a Europe of Global Stature. Retrieved August 9, 2025, from
https://www.swp-berlin.org/en/publication/german-foreign-policy-in-transition#hd-
d50882e770
Graf, T., Steinbrecher, M., & Biehl, H. (2023). From reluctance to reassurance: Explaining the
shift in the Germans’ NATO alliance solidarity following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
Contemporary Security Policy, 45(2), 298–330.
https://doi.org/10.1080/13523260.2023.2286771
Håkansson, C. (2023). The Ukraine War and the emergence of the European Commission as a
geopolitical actor. Journal of European Integration, 46(1), 25–45.
https://doi.org/10.1080/07036337.2023.2239998
Hertz, R. & Leuffen, D. (2011). Too big to run? Analysing the impact of enlargement on the
speed of EU decision-making. European Union Politics, 12(2), 193–215.
https://doi.org/10.1177/1465116511399162
JANUS.NET, e-journal of International Relations
e-ISSN: 1647-7251
VOL. 16, Nº. 2
November 2025-April 2026, pp. 231-254
EU-Nique Perspectives? Analysing contrasting positions
on the Russo-Ukrainian conflict within the EU
Matilde Ramos, Filipa Sá, Noa Silva, Mariana Resende, Isabella Castro
250
Hettyey, A. (2020). The Europeanization of Hungarian foreign policy and the Hungarization of
European foreign policy, 2010-18. Journal of Contemporary European Studies, 29(1), 125–
138. https://doi.org/10.1080/14782804.2020.1824895
Jankowski, M. & Gujski, M. (2022). Editorial: The Public Health Implications for the refugee
population, particularly in Poland, due to the war in Ukraine. Medical Science Monitor :
International Medical Journal of Experimental and Clinical Research. Article e936808.
https://doi.org/10.12659/MSM.936808
Komarnytskyy, M. (2024). From policy to practice: Interpreting Polish strategic culture amidst
the Russian full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Przegląd Strategiczny, (16), 309–320.
https://doi.org/10.14746/ps.2023.1.22
Korzeniewski, K., Shkilna, M., Huk, M., Shevchuk, O., & Marchelek-Myśliwiec, M. (2024).
Ukrainian war refugees and migrants in Poland: Implications for public health. Journal of Travel
Medicine, 31(1). https://doi.org/10.1093/jtm/taad119
Kovács, Z. (2022, March 6). The weekend in brief: Hungary on the war in Ukraine. About
Hungary. Retrieved May 5, 2024, from https://abouthungary.hu/blog/the-weekend-in-brief-
hungary-on-the-war-in-ukraine
Krzysztoszek, A. (2025, April 23). Polish foreign policy focus on standing against Russian
threat. Euractiv Poland. Retrieved August 12, 2025, from
https://www.euractiv.com/section/politics/news/polish-foreign-policy-focus-on-standing-
against-russian-threat/
Ladi, S. & Tsarouhas, D. (2020). EU economic governance and Covid-19: policy learning and
windows of opportunity. Journal of European Integration, 42(8), 1041–1056.
https://doi.org/10.1080/07036337.2020.1852231
Lamour, C. (2023). Orbán Placed in Europe: Ukraine, Russia and the Radical-Right Populist
Heartland. Geopolitics, 29(4), 1297–1323. https://doi.org/10.1080/14650045.2023.2241825
Letki, N., Walentek, D., Dinesen, P. T., & Liebe, U. (2024). Has the war in Ukraine changed
Europeans’ preferences on refugee policy? Evidence from a panel experiment in Germany,
Hungary and Poland. Journal of European Public Policy, 1–25.
https://doi.org/10.1080/13501763.2024.2304610
Liadze, I., Macchiarelli, C., Mortimer-Lee, P., & Sanchez Juanino, P. (2022). Economic costs of
the Russia-Ukraine war. The Journal of Economic Policy, 46(4), 874–886.
https://doi.org/10.1111/twec.13336
Lisiakiewicz, R. (2018). Poland’s conception of European security and Russia. Communist and
Post-Communist Studies, 51(2), 113–123.
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.postcomstud.2018.04.002
Maurer, H., Whitman, R.G. & Wright, N. (2023). The EU and the invasion of Ukraine: a
collective responsibility to act? International Affairs, 99(1), 219–238.
https://doi.org/10.1093/ia/iiac262
Mark C. Fischer. (2023, February 17). “Zeitenwende” One Year Later – Germany Caught in a
Rut? BSt Europe. https://bst-europe.eu/investment-budget/zeitenwende-one-year-later-
germany-caught-in-a-rut/
JANUS.NET, e-journal of International Relations
e-ISSN: 1647-7251
VOL. 16, Nº. 2
November 2025-April 2026, pp. 231-254
EU-Nique Perspectives? Analysing contrasting positions
on the Russo-Ukrainian conflict within the EU
Matilde Ramos, Filipa Sá, Noa Silva, Mariana Resende, Isabella Castro
251
Mikulova, K., & Simecka, M. (2013). Norm Entrepreneurs and Atlanticist Foreign Policy in
Central and Eastern Europe: The Missionary Zeal of Recent Converts. Europe-Asia Studies,
65(6), 1192–1216. https://doi.org/10.1080/09668136.2013.813681
Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Hungary. (2011). Hungary’s Foreign Policy after the Hungarian
Presidency of the Council of the European Union. Retrieved August 6, 2025, from
https://brexit.kormany.hu/admin/download/f/1b/30000/foreign_policy_20111219.pdf
Ministry of Foreign Affairs Republic of Poland. (n.d.). Eastern policy. gov.pl. Retrieved August
12, 2025, from https://www.gov.pl/web/diplomacy/eastern-policy
NATO. (2008, April 3). Bucharest Summit Declaration - Issued by the Heads of State and
Government participating in the meeting of the North Atlantic Council in Bucharest on 3 April
2008 [Press release]. https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natolive/official_texts_8443.htm
NATO. (2023). Secretary General praises Germany’s strong contributions to NATO and support
to Ukraine. Retrieved August 9, 2025, from
https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/news_211073.htm
Orenstein, M. A. & Kelemen, R. D. (2017). Trojan Horses in EU Foreign Policy. JCMS: Journal
of Common Market Studies, 55(1), 87–102. https://doi.org/10.1111/JCMS.12441
Pacces, A.M. & Weimer, M. (2020, April 15). From Diversity to Coordination: A European
Approach to COVID19 (Amsterdam Center for Law & Economics Working Paper No. 2020-02).
SSRN Electronic Journal. https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3576392
Permanent Mission of the Federal Republic of Germany to the United Nations. (2023,
September 20). Speech by Olaf Scholz, Chancellor of the Federal Republic of Germany on the
occasion of the open debate on Ukraine in the United Nations Security Council New York, 20
September 2023. Retrieved May 5, 2024, from https://new-york-un.diplo.de/un-en/-
/2618620
Pezard, S., Radin, A., Szayna, T. S., & Larrabee, F. S. (2017). European Relations with Russia:
Threat Perceptions, Responses, and Strategies in the Wake of the Ukrainian Crisis. RAND
Corporation. https://www.rand.org/pubs/research_reports/RR1579.html
Poletti, A. (2023). Europe’s Fragile Unity. Survival, 65(1), 71–80.
https://doi.org/10.1080/00396338.2023.2172854
Polish Foreign Policy Strategy 2017-2021. (n.d.). gov.pl. Retrieved August 12, 2025 from
https://www.gov.pl/attachment/869184c0-bd6f-4a20-b8af-a5c8190350a1
President of the Republic of Poland. (2022a, February 24). Message from the President of the
Republic of Poland. Retrieved May 2, 2024, from https://www.president.pl/news/message-
from-the-president-of-the-republic-of-poland,49387
President of the Republic of Poland. (2022b, August 23). Ukraine is fighting for its
independence says President. Retrieved May 2, 2024, from
https://www.president.pl/news/ukraine-is-fighting-for-its-independence-says-
president,57804
President of the Republic of Poland. (2022c, September 20). Speech by the President of Poland
at the 77th session of the UN General Assembly. Retrieved May 2, 2024, from
JANUS.NET, e-journal of International Relations
e-ISSN: 1647-7251
VOL. 16, Nº. 2
November 2025-April 2026, pp. 231-254
EU-Nique Perspectives? Analysing contrasting positions
on the Russo-Ukrainian conflict within the EU
Matilde Ramos, Filipa Sá, Noa Silva, Mariana Resende, Isabella Castro
252
https://www.president.pl/news/speech-by-the-president-of-poland-at-the-77th-session-of-
the-un-general-assembly,58871
President of the Republic of Poland. (2023a, February 24). Message by the President of the
Republic of Poland. Retrieved May 2, 2024, from https://www.president.pl/news/message-
from-the-president-of-the-republic-of-poland,65161
President of the Republic of Poland. (2023b, June 12). We should help Ukraine join Western
community says Polish president. Retrieved May 2, 2024, from
https://www.president.pl/news/we-should-help-ukraine-join-western-community-says-
polish-president,69869
President of the Republic of Poland. (2023c, June 19). Poland's foreign policy seeks Russia's
strategic defeat Andrzej Duda says. PRESIDENT.PL. Retrieved August 12, 2025 from
https://www.president.pl/archives/andrzej-duda/news/polands-foreign-policy-seeks-russias-
strategic-defeat-andrzej-duda-says,70232
Radaelli, C. M. (2022). Policy Learning and European Integration. JCMS: Journal of Common
Market Studies, 60(S1), 12–25. https://doi.org/10.1111/jcms.13432
Raik, K., Blockmans, S., Osypchuk, A., & Suslov, A. (2024). EU Policy towards Ukraine:
Entering Geopolitical Competition over European Order. The International Spectator, 59(1),
39–58. https://doi.org/10.1080/03932729.2023.2296576
Republic of Poland. (2020). National Security Strategy of the Republic of Poland. Retrieved
August 12, 2025, from
https://www.bbn.gov.pl/ftp/dokumenty/National_Security_Strategy_of_the_Republic_of_Pol
and_2020.pdf
Reuters. (2023, February 18). Hungary’s Orban says Europe ‘drifting into’ Ukraine war, 18
February. Retrieved April 10, 2024, from https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/hungarys-
orban-says-europe-drifting-into-ukraine-war-2023-02-18
Sakwa, R. (2015). The death of Europe? Continental fates after Ukraine. International Affairs,
91(3), 553–579. https://doi.org/10.1111/1468-2346.12281
Schmidt, A. & Glied, V. (2024). Pragmatic foreign policy of Hungary in the shadow of the
Russian-Ukrainian war. Eastern Journal of European Studies, 15(SI), 247–267.
http://dx.doi.org/10.47743/ejes-2024-SI12
Scholz, O. (2022). Policy statement by Olaf Scholz, Chancellor of the Federal Republic of
Germany and Member of the German Bundestag, 27 February 2022 in Berlin. The Federal
Government. Retrieved August 9, 2025, from https://www.bundesregierung.de/breg-
en/news/policy-statement-by-olaf-scholz-chancellor-of-the-federal-republic-of-germany-on-
the-russian-attack-on-ukraine-2008378
Siddi, M. (2016). German foreign policy towards Russia in the aftermath of the Ukraine crisis:
A new Ostpolitik? Europe-Asia Studies, 68(4), 665-677.
https://doi.org/10.1080/09668136.2016.1173879
Statista. (2024, May). Opinion on the refugee reception from Ukraine to Poland. Retrieved May
25, 2024, from https://www.statista.com/statistics/1298360/opinion-on-the-refugee-
reception-from-ukraine-to-poland/
JANUS.NET, e-journal of International Relations
e-ISSN: 1647-7251
VOL. 16, Nº. 2
November 2025-April 2026, pp. 231-254
EU-Nique Perspectives? Analysing contrasting positions
on the Russo-Ukrainian conflict within the EU
Matilde Ramos, Filipa Sá, Noa Silva, Mariana Resende, Isabella Castro
253
Stent, A. (2022). Germany and Russia: Farewell to Ostpolitik? Survival, 64(5), 27–38.
https://doi.org/10.1080/00396338.2022.2126194
Stolle, D. (2023). Aiding Ukraine in the Russian war: unity or new dividing line among
Europeans? European Political Science, 23, 218–233. https://doi.org/10.1057/s41304-023-
00444-7
Sus, M. (2025). Status-seeking in wartime: Poland’s leadership aspirations and the response
to the Russian invasion of Ukraine. The British Journal of Politics and International Relations.
https://doi.org/10.1177/13691481251329767
Taggart, P., Oppermann, K., Dooley, N., Szczerbiak, A., & Collard, S. (2023). Drivers of
Consensus: Responses to Brexit in Germany, France, Ireland and Poland. German Politics, 1–
25. https://doi.org/10.1080/09644008.2022.2159943
Taylor, P. (2024, April 3). Send missiles to Ukraine or stand accused of appeasing Russia? Olaf
Scholz must choose. The Guardian. Retrieved May 5, 2024, from
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2024/apr/03/send-missiles-to-ukraine-or-
stand-accused-of-appeasing-russia-olaf-scholz-must-choose
The Visegrad Group. (2024, July 31). About the Visegrad Group. Retrieved July 31, 2024, from
https://www.visegradgroup.eu/about
Thorpe, N. (2023, December 15). What has Hungary’s Orbán got against Ukraine?. BBC.
Retrieved May 5, 2024, from https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-67725570
Tilles, D. (2024, January 22). Nothing more important than supporting Ukraine, says Tusk on
Kyiv visit. Notes from Poland. Retrieved August 12, 2025, from
https://notesfrompoland.com/2024/01/22/nothing-more-important-than-supporting-ukraine-
says-tusk-on-kyiv-visit/
Tyler M. C. (2022, May 27). Ukraine: The view from Warsaw. The Interpreter. Retrieved
August 12, 2025, from https://www.lowyinstitute.org/the-interpreter/ukraine-view-warsaw
Varga, I. (2000). Development of the Hungarian Foreign Policy in the Last Ten Years: A
comparison of the foreign policy programs of the post-transition Hungarian governments.
National Security and the Future, 1(2), 117–131. Retrieved August 6, 2025, from
https://www.nsf-journal.hr/issues/v1_n2/NSF-2-pdf/07Varga.pdf
Walter, S. (2020). EU‐27 Public Opinion on Brexit. JCMS: Journal of Common Market Studies,
59(3), 569–588. https://doi.org/10.1111/jcms.13107
Whitworth, W. (2021). West German Rearmament Protests and the Reframing of Germany as
Pacifist. European Review of International Studies, 8(2), 166–190.
https://doi.org/10.1163/21967415-08020013
Wittlinger, R. (2010). German national identity in the twenty-first century: A different republic
after all? Springer. https://doi.org/10.1057/9780230290495_7
Zajaczkowski, J. (2017). Trading solidarity for security?: Poland and the Russian-Ukrainian
crisis. The Ideology and Politics Journal, 7(1), 168-234. Retrieved April 15, 2024, from
https://www.researchgate.net/publication/321979689_Trading_solidarity_for_security_Polan
d_and_the_Russian-Ukrainian_crisis
JANUS.NET, e-journal of International Relations
e-ISSN: 1647-7251
VOL. 16, Nº. 2
November 2025-April 2026, pp. 231-254
EU-Nique Perspectives? Analysing contrasting positions
on the Russo-Ukrainian conflict within the EU
Matilde Ramos, Filipa Sá, Noa Silva, Mariana Resende, Isabella Castro
254
Zakaria, F. (2023, March 5). German Chancellor Olaf Scholz on Ukraine and Beijing; Tracking
the Origins of COVID-19 [Transcript]. In Global Public Square. CNN.
https://transcripts.cnn.com/show/fzgps/date/2023-03-05/segment/01
OBSERVARE
Universidade Autónoma de Lisboa
e-ISSN: 1647-7251
VOL. 16, Nº. 2
November 2025-April 2026
255
THE ROLE OF COOPERATIVES IN REGIONAL INTEGRATION: A PERSPECTIVE
FROM THE WESTERN BALKANS
RUI SAMARCOS LORA
ruisamarcos@gmail.com
PhD Fellow at the Foundation for Science and Technology (FCT), former Fellow at the Tokyo
Foundation for Policy Research (SYLFF). He holds a degree in International Relations (UniCEUB)
and is a Specialist in Political Science from the University of Brasília (UnB). Lora holds a Master's
degree in International Relations and European Studies from the University of Évora. He is
currently a doctoral candidate at the Center for Social Studies-CES / Faculty of Economics
(FEUC) at the University of Coimbra (Portugal). He is a member of the Hannah Arendt Center for
Politics and the Humanities at Bard College (HAC).
Abstract
This paper investigates the pivotal role of cooperatives in facilitating regional integration, with
a focus on the Western Balkans region. Utilizing insights drawn from the European integration
process and the unique dynamics of the Western Balkans, this study delves into the
multifaceted ways in which cooperatives contribute to various facets of regional integration,
encompassing rural development, agriculture, employment, social inclusion, and energy.
Through an analysis of projects and initiatives involving cooperatives in the region, it becomes
apparent that these entities serve as inconspicuous yet crucial local actors, driving socio-
economic advancement and fostering cross-border collaboration. Despite encountering
challenges such as legal frameworks and historical contexts, cooperatives significantly
influence the promotion of bottom-up approaches to integration, thereby amplifying the
participation of local stakeholders in the process. By leveraging fundamental principles
inherent to cooperativism, including solidarity and democratic governance, these
organizations facilitate dialogue, trust-building, and sustainable development, thereby
furthering the overarching objectives of regional integration. This paper underscores the
imperative for greater acknowledgment of cooperatives as possible stakeholders in regional
integration processes and advocates for policies aimed at bolstering their engagement and
empowerment.
Keywords
Cooperatives, Regional Integration, Western Balkans, local turn, Rural development.
Resumo
Este artigo analisa o papel fundamental das cooperativas na facilitação da integração regional,
com foco na região dos Balcãs Ocidentais. Utilizando insights extraídos do processo de
integração europeia e da dinâmica única dos Balcãs Ocidentais, este estudo aprofunda as
formas multifacetadas pelas quais as cooperativas contribuem para várias facetas da
integração regional, abrangendo o desenvolvimento rural, a agricultura, o emprego, a inclusão
social e a energia. Através de uma análise de projetos e iniciativas envolvendo cooperativas
na região, torna-se evidente que estas entidades atuam como atores locais discretos, mas
cruciais, impulsionando o avanço socioeconómico e promovendo a colaboração
transfronteiriça. Apesar de enfrentarem desafios como quadros jurídicos e contextos
JANUS.NET, e-journal of International Relations
e-ISSN: 1647-7251
VOL. 16, Nº. 2
November 2025-April 2026, pp. 255-271
The role of Cooperatives in Regional Integration: A Perspective from the Western Balkans
Rui Samarcos Lora
256
históricos, as cooperativas influenciam significativamente a promoção de abordagens de
integração de baixo para cima, ampliando assim a participação das partes interessadas locais
no processo. Ao alavancar princípios fundamentais inerentes ao cooperativismo, incluindo a
solidariedade e a governação democrática, estas organizações facilitam o diálogo, a
construção de confiança e o desenvolvimento sustentável, promovendo assim os objetivos
gerais da integração regional. Este documento sublinha a necessidade imperativa de um maior
reconhecimento das cooperativas como possíveis partes interessadas nos processos de
integração regional e defende políticas destinadas a reforçar o seu envolvimento e
capacitação.
Palavras-chave
Cooperativas, integração regional, Balcãs Ocidentais, viragem local, desenvolvimento rural.
How to cite this article
Lora, Rui Samarcos (2025). The role of Cooperatives in Regional Integration: A Perspective from
the Western Balkans. Janus.net, e-journal of international relations. VOL. 16, Nº. 2, November
2025-April 2026, pp. 255-271. DOI https://doi.org/10.26619/1647-7251.16.2.14
Article submitted on 16th September 2024 and accepted for publication on 8th
September 2025.
JANUS.NET, e-journal of International Relations
e-ISSN: 1647-7251
VOL. 16, Nº. 2
November 2025-April 2026, pp. 255-271
The role of Cooperatives in Regional Integration: A Perspective from the Western Balkans
Rui Samarcos Lora
257
THE ROLE OF COOPERATIVES IN REGIONAL INTEGRATION: A
PERSPECTIVE FROM THE WESTERN BALKANS
RUI SAMARCOS LORA
The integration process in the Western Balkans is guided by two main strategies. The
first strategy revolves around the European Union’s bilateral approach, wherein each
candidate country must individually fulfill specific requirements. The second strategy
involves the European Union’s enlargement conditionality for candidate nations, which
includes fulfilling stipulated criteria and establishing parallel structures under EU
sponsorship. Additionally, multilateral intra-regional initiatives, such as the integration of
the Western Balkans itself, complement these strategies. The overarching aim is for these
inter and intra-regional approaches to mutually reinforce one another, facilitating
smoother accession processes to the European Union for Western Balkan countries.
Ultimately, this approach aims to foster initial enlargement among these nations, aligning
them closely with the EU’s four freedoms of the market and its acquis communautaire,
thus promoting closer integration with the European Union.
Within this outlined integration framework for the Western Balkans, the post-war context
is paramount, particularly in rural areas, which faced a devastated economy and
inadequate infrastructure (Van Houtte 1999:625-638). Cooperativism emerges as a
viable crisis management alternative (Vieta and Lionais 2015:32), capable of contributing
to regional development and fostering integration among populations fragmented by
conflict (Radosavac, Djukic, and Jovanovic 2014:23-26) (Pugh 2002:467). However, the
role of cooperatives in this context is not immediately evident. Rather, it operates
diffusely, often with the assistance of various international organizations through hybrid
mechanisms and platforms. Factors such as the erosion of trust resulting from war (CEDP
2018:42) and the complex political and economic legacy of the former Yugoslavia
(Gardner and Lerman 2006) partly explain the delayed recognition of the cooperative
sector’s contribution to regional integration.
Considering this context, this paper aims to delve into the role of cooperatives in
facilitating regional integration in the Western Balkans region. Building upon the outlined
integration strategies for the Western Balkans, which emphasize both bilateral EU
accession processes and intra-regional initiatives, this study seeks to elucidate the
historical context and contemporary dynamics of cooperatives in the region in the first
moment. By examining the historical evolution of cooperativism in the Western Balkans
and its contribution to the broader European integration process, this paper aims to shed
light on the multifaceted ways in which cooperatives foster socio-economic development
and cross-border collaboration. Moreover, it endeavors to explore the nuanced role of
cooperatives in navigating the challenges posed by the post-war context and the complex
political and economic legacy of the former Yugoslavia. Ultimately, this paper seeks to
emphasize the importance of considering cooperatives as a stakeholders in the Western
Balkans’ integration process and promoting policies aimed at enhancing their
engagement and empowerment within the region.
JANUS.NET, e-journal of International Relations
e-ISSN: 1647-7251
VOL. 16, Nº. 2
November 2025-April 2026, pp. 255-271
The role of Cooperatives in Regional Integration: A Perspective from the Western Balkans
Rui Samarcos Lora
258
The Cooperative Movement in the Western Balkans
In contrast to Europe, where the cooperative movement boasts a well-documented
history and is celebrated for its contributions to the social economy (Bietti et al., 2021;
Gijselinckx & Bussels, 2014; Ortmann & King, 2007), the history of cooperatives in the
Western Balkans, while similarly old - dating back to the 19th century - follows a unique
trajectory, yielding distinct outcomes that shed light on the asymmetries of
cooperativism’s role in their respective integration endeavors. The first cooperative in the
Western Balkans region, Gazdovsky Spolok, was founded in Bački Petrovac, Serbia, in
1846, modeling cooperative savings and loan frameworks. Predominantly, the
cooperatives sprouting during this era aimed to address capital scarcity issues, marking
a phase of relative prosperity for the cooperative movement (Krasavac & Petković, 2015).
According to a report by the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), cooperatives
established in the Western Balkans during this epoch mirrored the European model within
a context characterized by:
“a developed awareness about the need to associate; a significant number of
different kinds of cooperatives; and one or several alliances connected to
international cooperative associations” (FAO 2013:12).
Hence, the initial imprint of cooperativism in the region is largely positive, as it not only
establishes cooperative enterprises, inspired by the Rochdale model
1
, but also aligns with
the global cooperative movement, thereby bolstering and fortifying ongoing initiatives.
At this juncture, the trajectory of cooperativism in the Western Balkans mirrors that of
its European counterparts. However, following the Second World War, this trajectory
underwent a significant shift with the adoption of a collectivization system modeled after
the Soviet paradigm. This entailed a partial amalgamation of private property, akin to
developments in the Soviet Union, with the establishment of kolkhozes
2
. Those
cooperatives that did not undergo this transformation evolved into community hubs,
fostering rural development and serving as conduits for socialist principles within the
country (Irwin, 2000). Consequently, kolkhozes deviated from the cooperative model, as
laborers were unable to leave the premises, remuneration was tied to labor input rather
than production output, and decision-making processes mirrored governmental
1
The Rochdale Model refers to a cooperative business model that originated from the Rochdale Society of
Equitable Pioneers, a group of weavers in Rochdale, England, in 1844. This model laid down the principles of
modern cooperative organizations and became the foundation for the cooperative movement worldwide.
Key features of the Rochdale Model include voluntary and open membership, democratic control by members
(one member, one vote), distribution of surplus or profits among members based on their transactions with
the cooperative, education and training of members, cooperation among cooperatives, and concern for the
community.
The Rochdale Model emphasized the importance of self-help, self-responsibility, democracy, equality, equity,
and solidarity in creating sustainable and ethical businesses that serve the needs of their members and
communities. It provided a blueprint for the organization and operation of cooperatives across various sectors,
including agriculture, retail, finance, and housing.
2
Kolkhozes were collective farms in the Soviet Union where land, livestock, and equipment were pooled
together for joint production. These collective farms were a key component of the Soviet agricultural system,
established during Joseph Stalin’s collectivization campaign in the late 1920s and 1930s. The term “kolkhoz” is
derived from the Russian words “kollektivnoye khozyaystvo,” meaning collective ownership or management.
Kolkhozes were characterized by centralized planning and state control over agricultural production, with
farmers working collectively and sharing the profits from their labor. However, the system faced various
challenges, including inefficiency, low productivity, and resistance from individual farmers forced to give up
their land and join collective farms.
JANUS.NET, e-journal of International Relations
e-ISSN: 1647-7251
VOL. 16, Nº. 2
November 2025-April 2026, pp. 255-271
The role of Cooperatives in Regional Integration: A Perspective from the Western Balkans
Rui Samarcos Lora
259
mandates rather than cooperative principles, effectively reproducing state directives
within their assemblies.
By the late 1950s, amidst a Yugoslav adaptation of the Soviet model, cooperatives began
to showcase their role in rural development and were acknowledged as vital community
hubs, fostering social and cultural development and enhancing overall quality of life
within the region.
“With the adoption of the Law of 1957 when the emphasis was put on general
agricultural cooperatives, which aside from procuring inputs, purchasing
products needed for processing, providing services to farmers and other jobs
related to improving agriculture, also had a significant role in rural
development because these were places of gathering and the development
of social and cultural life, which helped to improve life” (FAO 2013:13).
In this context, it is noteworthy to recognize the role of cooperatives in fostering
community bonds - irrespective of the prevailing political and economic milieu - and even
in nurturing social capital (Barham and Chitemi, 2009). However, within the specific
context of the Western Balkans, the deepening of reforms in the region resulted in the
closure of numerous cooperatives, particularly smaller ones, with a significant portion
being nationalized and amalgamated into state-owned enterprises. This had detrimental
effects and, to some extent, dampened the cooperative sector’s vigor in the face of
evolving reforms, inconsistencies, and a drift away from the cooperative ethos (FAO,
2013:13).
The intensification of this model effectively transformed cooperative entities into
extensions of the government, utilized for political ends rather than representing the
interests of the cooperators themselves. Consequently, this period witnessed a significant
departure from the original objectives and modus operandi of cooperatives, elucidating
why their contribution to regional integration in the Western Balkans diverged from that
observed in European integration. The legacy of the socialist era profoundly discouraged
association and cooperative endeavors, a sentiment that persists among certain
segments of the population even today (Hagedorn, 2014; Wegren and O’Brien, 2018).
It was only in the late 1980s, amid the onset of new economic and social reforms in the
Western Balkans coinciding with the collapse of Yugoslavia, that cooperatives
commenced a revival rooted in their foundational principles. However, with the eruption
of the Bosnian war and subsequent conflicts, cooperativism was relegated to the
backseat, not deemed a priority at the time (FAO, 2013:15). With the advent of peace
negotiations in the late 1990s and the imperative for economic and social reconstruction
that interest in cooperatives was reignited definitively.
Thus, as can be perceived, when examining the nexus between the cooperative
movement and regional integration processes, it is imperative to acknowledge that the
trajectory of cooperative formation in the Western Balkans differed significantly from that
experienced in Europe. Consequently, the contribution of cooperatives to regional
integration is more readily discernible in the European context than in that of the Western
Balkans (Chaves and Monzón, 2017). Nonetheless, this does not negate the existence of
cooperative engagement within the Western Balkans.
JANUS.NET, e-journal of International Relations
e-ISSN: 1647-7251
VOL. 16, Nº. 2
November 2025-April 2026, pp. 255-271
The role of Cooperatives in Regional Integration: A Perspective from the Western Balkans
Rui Samarcos Lora
260
Cooperatives as a Catalyst for European Integration
The integration trajectory of the Western Balkans is marked by a distinctive feature,
rooted in the aspiration of each country in the region to join the European Union (Volk et
al., 2014:11). Moreover, the European Union, in addition to delineating its accession
criteria and requirements, actively encourages and conditions the Western Balkan nations
to foster regional integration, thereby facilitating a smoother and more harmonious
bilateral accession process, as previously noted
3
.
Given that the integration journey of the Western Balkans is intricately linked to EU
accession, understanding the role of cooperatives and their impact on the integration
process necessitates an examination of the existing synergies between cooperativism
and European integration. Subsequently, it becomes imperative to underscore their
involvement in the ongoing integration process within the Western Balkans.
Accession to the European Union entails a multifaceted process outlined in Article 49 of
the Treaty on European Union:
“Any European State which respects the values referred to in Article 2 and is
committed to promoting them may apply to become a member of the Union.
The European Parliament and national Parliaments shall be notified of this
application. The applicant State shall address its application to the Council,
which shall act unanimously after consulting the Commission and after
receiving the consent of the European Parliament, which shall act by a
majority of its component members. The conditions of eligibility agreed upon
by the European Council shall be taken into account. The conditions of
admission and the adjustments to the Treaties on which the Union is founded,
which such admission entails, shall be the subject of an agreement between
the Member States and the applicant State. This agreement shall be
submitted for ratification by all the contracting States in accordance with their
respective constitutional requirements”.
Based on the provisions of the Treaty, the first step for a country to become a member
of the European Union is to comply with the accession criteria defined in the European
Council of Copenhagen in 1993, known as the Copenhagen Criteria, which can be divided
into three broad axes:
i) stability of institutions guaranteeing democracy, the rule of law, human rights
and respect for and protection of minorities;
ii) a functioning market economy and the ability to cope with competitive
pressure and market forces within the EU;
iii) the ability to take on the obligations of membership, including the capacity to
effectively implement the rules, standards and policies that make up the body
of EU law (the ‘acquis’), and adherence to the aims of political, economic and
monetary union.
3
European Commission. European Neighborhood Policy and Enlargement Negotiations. Website:
https://neighbourhood-enlargement.ec.europa.eu/enlargement-policy/policy-highlights/regional-
cooperation_en. Access on 24
th
February, 2024.
JANUS.NET, e-journal of International Relations
e-ISSN: 1647-7251
VOL. 16, Nº. 2
November 2025-April 2026, pp. 255-271
The role of Cooperatives in Regional Integration: A Perspective from the Western Balkans
Rui Samarcos Lora
261
Upon initial examination of these foundational documents, namely Article 49 of the Treaty
on European Union and the Copenhagen Criteria, it becomes apparent that they share
certain parallels with the principles underpinning the cooperative movement. This
correlation facilitates the identification of synergies, thereby enabling discourse or
visualization of the guidelines established by the European Union at a supranational level,
regarding integration. Concurrently, cooperative principles
4
, operating at a more localized
level, can be delineated, as depicted in the table below
5
:
Table 1. Comparison between Cooperative Principles, Article 49 TEU, and the Copenhagen
Criteria
Cooperative principles
Article 49 of the Treaty of EU
Copenhagen Criteria
1. Voluntary and Open Membership
Democratic principle and voluntary
membership are aligned with the
EU’s aspiration to accept new
members who share democratic
values and seek voluntary
accession to the bloc.
“Stability of democratic institutions”
and “Respect for human rights and
protection of minorities.”
2. Democratic Member Control
It reflects the commitment to
democratic governance, one of the
pillars of the EU accession process.
“Stable institutions ensuring
democracy, the rule of law, human
rights, and respect for minorities” is
a criterion.
3. Member Economic Participation
The principle of sharing benefits
equitably is in line with the
objective of building fair and
market economies in the EU.
“Functional market economy.”
4. Autonomy and Independence
It reflects the desire for
autonomous entities, a principle
related to the need for EU member
states to maintain their
sovereignty.
The requirement for “ability to
assume the obligations of
accession, including adherence to
the goal of economic stability.”
5. Education, Training, and
Information
The pursuit of education and
information is aligned with the
values of transparency and
information in the EU.
Concerns regarding the “ability to
assume the obligations of
accession” and the need for
“effective institutions to implement
and enforce the acquis
communautaire.”
7. Cooperation among Cooperatives
It reflects the idea of working
together at national and
international levels, which can be
compared to cooperation among EU
member states.
Can be related to the commitment
to “good neighborly relations” and
“peaceful conflict resolution.”
8. Concern for Community
The commitment to sustainable
community development aligns
with the emphasis on social and
regional cohesion in the EU.
Can be linked to the need for “good
neighborly relations” and the
commitment to “stability of
borders.”
Source: Adapted from "Regionalism in Southern Europe: The cooperativism in the Western
Balkans’ integration process" [Master’s thesis, Universidade de Évora], by R. Lora, 2023.
(https://dspace.uevora.pt/rdpc/handle/10174/36014).
4
The cooperative principles serve as a guiding framework for the operation and organization of cooperatives
worldwide. These principles outline the fundamental values and practices that cooperatives adhere to in their
daily activities. They include voluntary and open membership, democratic member control, economic
participation by members, autonomy and independence, education, training, and information, cooperation
among cooperatives, and concern for community. Together, these principles ensure that cooperatives operate
in a manner that prioritizes the needs and interests of their members, promotes democratic decision-making,
fosters cooperation and mutual support, and contributes to the well-being of the communities they serve.
5
Lora, R. (2023). Regionalism in Southern Europe: The cooperativism in the Western Balkans’ integration
process [Master’s thesis, Universidade de Évora]. Retrieved from
https://dspace.uevora.pt/rdpc/handle/10174/36014. Access on 24
th
February, 2024.
JANUS.NET, e-journal of International Relations
e-ISSN: 1647-7251
VOL. 16, Nº. 2
November 2025-April 2026, pp. 255-271
The role of Cooperatives in Regional Integration: A Perspective from the Western Balkans
Rui Samarcos Lora
262
The initial synergy identified can be further underscored by viewing cooperatives as
agents of development from a grassroots perspective, i.e., on a local scale. Upon closer
examination, it becomes evident that cooperatives contribute to certain chapters of the
acquis communautaire of the European Union accession process or even in a regional
integration process. Therefore, it is imperative to pinpoint the areas in this relationship
where cooperatives make a contribution and highlight their role in the integration process
by scrutinizing the acquis communautaire outlined in the third point of the Copenhagen
Criteria.
In the European integration process, once a country is recognized as a candidate, it
undergoes several stages until it begins to adopt and implement the acquis
communautaire. At this juncture, chapters of the acquis are opened for negotiation,
assessment, and approval. Presently, this community acquis comprises 35 chapters that
serve as the foundation for commencing negotiations for each candidate country. Hence,
they pertain to various domains wherein the candidate country needs to adapt
administratively and ensure that national legislation aligns with EU legislation in these
domains.
Out of the 35 chapters constituting the acquis communautaire, cooperatives can be
directly associated, identified, and analyzed in five specific chapters, namely: Chapter
11, pertaining to agriculture and rural development; Chapter 19, concerning social policy
and employment; Chapter 20, related to business and industrial policy; Chapter 26,
addressing education and culture; and Chapter 27, focusing on the environment. By
examining the scope of these chapters and cooperative activities it can be argued that
cooperatives have the potential to be recognized as catalysts for regional integration not
only by contributing to the harmonization of the acquis communautaire but also by
serving as local enterprises capable of improving deficient or necessary aspects to meet
accession criteria, thereby actively and dynamically expediting the process.
In this regard, considering the chapters of the acquis communautaire from the
perspective of the contribution of cooperativism, it is possible to highlight that the
establishment of cooperatives has proven to be an effective instrument for alleviating
rural poverty (Mojo et al., 2017), as well as enhancing the efficiency and productivity of
processes in rural areas through the collective acquisition of inputs and machinery (Abate
et al., 2014; Ji et al., 2019). Furthermore, it empowers producers with bargaining power
and facilitates access to broader markets (Gava et al., 2021). It also fosters integration
between producers and supply chain actors and addresses gender issues. Similarly, it
promotes knowledge building and the creation of local social capital (Barham and
Chitemi, 2009), which is crucial in an integration process considering the history of
conflict in the Western Balkans.
Moreover, the establishment of cooperatives can support capacity building and the
dissemination of knowledge and co-creation through peer learning among producers,
which are vital for adopting best practices, adapting to climate change, and implementing
risk strategies. Finally, it is worth mentioning that cooperatives can play a central role in
local governance by identifying relevant technological innovations and necessary changes
in rural management, as well as in education to bolster producer leadership and foster
youth and female entrepreneurship (Gava et al., 2021).
JANUS.NET, e-journal of International Relations
e-ISSN: 1647-7251
VOL. 16, Nº. 2
November 2025-April 2026, pp. 255-271
The role of Cooperatives in Regional Integration: A Perspective from the Western Balkans
Rui Samarcos Lora
263
In this vein, cooperatives can be associated or observed alongside the concept of
subaltern and insurgent cosmopolitanism
6
(Lora 2023), as they enable subordinate or
excluded actors from the globalization process to organize transnationally in defense of
common interests. This is achieved through links with international organizations, such
as the International Cooperative Alliance (ICA), or through initiatives, projects, and
institutions that allow the grouping of often marginalized voices excluded from a process,
not only to participate but also to enjoy common benefits, as is the case with regional
integration.
Emphasizing the cooperative contribution to the process and highlighting this insurgent
cosmopolitanism capacity is crucial because the integration process of the Western
Balkans ultimately aims at accession to the European Union in the long term. Therefore,
the involvement of cooperatives in this scenario enables, in the short and medium term,
the highlighting of the role of a local actor as an international actor in contributing not
only to the regional scenario of the Western Balkans but also locally in each country.
Furthermore, it is important to note that, in the case of the Western Balkans countries,
additional accession conditions were established in the so-called Stabilization and
Association Process (SAP)
7
, mainly related to regional cooperation and good neighborly
relations. However, it is still necessary to analyze the catalytic effect that the cooperative
can provide, which will be discussed in detail in the next item regarding regionalism.
Cooperatives: a Non-Evident Local Actor in Regionalism
The role and impact of cooperatives within the European integration process are
discernible through the alignment between the foundational principles of European
integration — enshrined in the Treaty on European Union and the Copenhagen Criteria
— and the cooperative principles. Moreover, the correlation between specific aspects of
the acquis communautaire and cooperative principles in relevant sectors further
highlights their participation in shaping the accession process to the European Union.
Conversely, when considering the integration efforts in the Western Balkans, the
contribution of cooperatives appears less conspicuous, primarily due to the historical
backdrop of the cooperative movement in the region, as mentioned before. Moreover,
the ongoing nature of the integration process in the Western Balkans adds complexity to
the visibility of cooperative involvement. Additionally, akin to the dynamics observed in
European integration, the engagement of local actors, including cooperatives, may not
6
“Insurgent cosmopolitanism,” a term coined by Boaventura de Sousa Santos, refers to a critical and alternative
approach to traditional cosmopolitanism. While conventional cosmopolitanism tends to emphasize a universalist
and harmonious view of global citizenship, insurgent cosmopolitanism highlights the voices and perspectives
of marginalized and subaltern communities. This approach acknowledges the structural inequalities, injustices,
and oppressions that pervade global relations and seeks to challenge and transform these dynamics from the
margins of society. Insurgent cosmopolitanism values diversity, plurality, and the struggle for social justice at
local, national, and global levels, promoting a vision of global citizenship that is more inclusive, supportive, and
engaged with the realities and needs of marginalized communities. Santos, B. de S. (2007). Beyond Abyssal
Thinking: From Global Lines to Ecologies of Knowledges. Review (Fernand Braudel Center), 30(1), 45-89.
7
The Stabilization and Association Process (SAP) is a framework established by the European Union (EU) for
countries in the Western Balkans with the aim of promoting stability, democracy, and economic development
in the region. It provides a pathway for these countries to gradually integrate with the EU and eventually
become candidate countries for EU membership. The SAP involves various measures and reforms, including
political, economic, and legal reforms, as well as initiatives to promote regional cooperation and reconciliation.
It is an important mechanism for advancing the European integration aspirations of the Western Balkan
countries.
JANUS.NET, e-journal of International Relations
e-ISSN: 1647-7251
VOL. 16, Nº. 2
November 2025-April 2026, pp. 255-271
The role of Cooperatives in Regional Integration: A Perspective from the Western Balkans
Rui Samarcos Lora
264
be readily apparent. This observation stems from the predominant theoretical
frameworks, such as neofunctionalism and intergovernmentalism, which emphasize the
roles of states and supranational entities in integration endeavors, a phenomenon
accentuated in the context of the evolving integration process in the Western Balkans.
This does not mean that there are no local actors or that cooperatives are not indirectly
represented, contemplated, and participants in the process. The very mechanisms and
structure of global governance mention the possibility of participation and interaction
(Lora 2023). In this sense, it is interesting to note that the South East Europe 2030
Strategy
8
(SEE 2030 Strategy), organized by the member countries of the SEECP
9
, as
well as by the RCC
10
, highlights the traditional format of global governance processes as
insufficient for the full involvement of actors and beneficiaries of an integration process,
i.e., the top-down-oriented perspective demonstrates a lack of interaction with local
actors and does not foresee greater participation of other actors such as cooperatives.
“The top-down oriented process of programming and implementation of
actions did not provide for sufficient involvement of the implementers and
intended beneficiaries on the ground, such as the private sector and its
related institutions. Furthermore, limitations were detected in access to and
operationalisation of available funding; frequent succumbing to a silo
approach; weak capacities and/or lacking mandates of some regional
coordinators; and challenges in target formulations and data collection.”
(RCC-SEE 2030 2021:5)
Although the lack of a robust regulatory framework is a common challenge across the
Western Balkans, national approaches vary significantly, reflecting diverse political and
administrative structures. Serbia has made notable strides by enacting a modern Law on
Cooperatives, which aims to align with EU standards and principles of the social economy
(Ljubojevic & Maksimovic Sekulic, 2021). In contrast, Bosnia and Herzegovina faces the
additional complexity of harmonizing legislation across its state and entity levels,
resulting in a fragmented legal landscape for cooperatives that hinders the development
of a unified support system (European Parliament, 2024). North Macedonia, despite its
candidate status, still grapples with institutional and administrative capacity challenges
that impact the potential of cooperatives to act as instruments for regional
8
The South East Europe 2030 Strategy is a regional initiative aimed at promoting cooperation and development
among countries in the Southeast European region. It outlines a vision and objectives for the region’s
sustainable development, addressing various socio-economic challenges and opportunities. The strategy
focuses on areas such as economic growth, social inclusion, environmental sustainability, and regional
integration. It serves as a framework for joint action and collaboration among governments, international
organizations, civil society, and other stakeholders to foster progress and prosperity in the region by the year
2030.
9
SEECP stands for the South-East European Cooperation Process. It is a regional initiative aimed at promoting
cooperation and dialogue among countries in Southeast Europe. The SEECP was established in 1996 to address
common challenges and foster stability, security, and prosperity in the region. It provides a platform for political
dialogue, economic cooperation, and cultural exchange among its member states. The SEECP is based on
principles of equality, mutual respect, and good neighborly relations, and it works closely with international
partners to support regional integration and development efforts.
10
RCC stands for the Regional Cooperation Council. It is an international organization that promotes cooperation
and integration among countries in Southeast Europe. The RCC was established in 2008 to support the
European and Euro-Atlantic integration of the region and to foster stability, security, and economic
development. The organization focuses on areas such as regional cooperation, economic growth, infrastructure
development, and rule of law. The RCC facilitates dialogue and cooperation among its member states and
coordinates with other international organizations and donors to support the region’s integration efforts.
JANUS.NET, e-journal of International Relations
e-ISSN: 1647-7251
VOL. 16, Nº. 2
November 2025-April 2026, pp. 255-271
The role of Cooperatives in Regional Integration: A Perspective from the Western Balkans
Rui Samarcos Lora
265
development
11
. Furthermore, Kosovo’s cooperative sector development is closely tied to
the broader dialogue on normalizing relations with Serbia and fulfilling specific EU
conditions related to regional cooperation
12
.
Through data collection and analysis, it becomes apparent that the interaction between
cooperatives and the RCC occurs indirectly, facilitated at times through established
mechanisms or platforms, and at other times through intermediary actors like the
International Labour Organization (ILO), which coordinates numerous projects in the
region where cooperatives play a central role.
Moreover, the SEE 2030 Strategy underscores the imperative of bolstering regional
cooperation across existing sectors within the Western Balkans and between the region
and the European Union, aiming to establish a foundational framework through key
organizations across various political dimensions (RCC-SEE 2030 2021:6). Emphasizing
the need to harness the social capital of sectors and institutions, the Strategy aims to
enhance both intra- and inter-regional integration within the Western Balkans. This
strategic objective aligns with a specific requirement highlighted in the European
Commission’s Report on Social Economy in the Eastern Neighborhood and the Western
Balkans
13
, further emphasizing the significance of cooperatives in fostering regional
integration.
“The lack of a regulatory framework for social economy development is
cumbersome (…), not allowing socially driven initiatives full and needed
recognition (…) none of the countries have implementation tools. In practice
(…) social enterprises do not receive needed public recognition, do not enjoy
tax benefits, and are struggling with administrative burden and inconsistent
implementation of regulations. Social economy is seen as an inclusion model
mostly for people with disabilities, with few countries having defined other
vulnerable groups as beneficiaries of the employment model created by social
enterprises” (Rosandić 2018:5).
Thus, it is noticeable that, despite the existence and participation of social economy
entities, there is a lack of support from the Western Balkans countries in establishing a
legal framework to support and enable the functioning of cooperatives (Lora 2023). While
the Commission points out this gap, the SEE 2030 Strategy seems to encourage and
even highlight the need for greater involvement of this sector.
In this regard, the SEE 2030 Strategy seeks to incorporate this local capacity into
integration priorities as a significant contribution to creating synergies among regional,
sub-regional, economic, and local levels (RCC-SEE2030 2021:33), primarily through the
11
Balcanicaucaso.org. (2023). The state of progress of regional policy in the European integration process of
North Macedonia. Recuperado em 9 de setembro de 2025, de
https://www.balcanicaucaso.org/eng/Areas/North-Macedonia/The-state-of-progress-of-regional-policy-in-the-
European-integration-process-of-North-Macedonia-233282
12
Ifri.org. (2017). The Challenge of the European Integration of Kosovo: Regional Cooperation and Neighbourly
Relations. Recuperado em 9 de setembro de 2025, de http://www.ifri.org/en/challenge-european-integration-
kosovo-regional-cooperation-and-neighbourly-relations.
13
European Commission. Website:
https://ec.europa.eu/docsroom/documents/29642/attachments/15/translations/en/renditions/native. Access
on 25
th
February, 2024.
JANUS.NET, e-journal of International Relations
e-ISSN: 1647-7251
VOL. 16, Nº. 2
November 2025-April 2026, pp. 255-271
The role of Cooperatives in Regional Integration: A Perspective from the Western Balkans
Rui Samarcos Lora
266
Employment and Social Affairs Platform 2 (ESAP2)
14
. This can be linked to the earlier
discussion on synergies between cooperativism and the fundamentals of European
integration. Therefore, the Strategy acknowledges the importance of local actors,
anticipates their participation, and even mentions the construction of this relationship at
different levels (RCC-SEE 2030 2021:54).
Based on the European Commission’s Report on Social Economy in the Eastern
Neighborhood and Western Balkans (Rosandić 2018), as well as the SEE 2030 Strategy
(2021), the participation and role of cooperatives in the integration process are not
explicitly highlighted. However, when observing the activities of international
organizations cooperating in the process as supranational agents, the contribution of
cooperatives to various projects, initiatives, and activities indirectly supporting the
integration of the Western Balkans region becomes apparent. Thus, cooperatives have
served as catalysts for many actions, albeit in a hybrid process with international
organizations such as the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), International Labour
Organization (ILO), International Fund for Agricultural Development, International
Cooperative Alliance (ICA), among others.
Furthermore, it is important to note that countries in the Western Balkans have support
infrastructure in the form of intermediary organizations, incubators, accelerators, training
centers, mentorship programs, along with financing and networks advocating for the
interests of social economy stakeholders (Rosandić 2018). In this context, cooperatives
are included in various segments and solutions, as their seven principles enable them to
be perceived as local enterprises capable of leveraging characteristics related to the social
economy. This underscores the aspect of insurgent cosmopolitanism once again.
Thus, considering hybrid initiatives that take into account cooperative capacity and the
activities of observed international organizations, it is possible to highlight specific areas
- potentially related to the acquis communautaire - where cooperativism has contributed
to the integration of the Western Balkans in a non-evident manner but as a catalyst. One
such area extends beyond regional integration, encompassing rural development,
agriculture, employment, and social inclusion, and may even be linked to peacebuilding
efforts (Lora 2023). By fostering economic and social development in the region,
cooperatives have facilitated the integration of individuals at a local level, enabling groups
previously divided by conflict to coexist through the structure provided by cooperatives,
as the case of a multi-ethnic agri-food cooperative established in the canton of Zenica-
Doboj
15
.
The aforementioned project can be related to various chapters of the acquis
communautaire, in addition to those dedicated to agricultural development, employment,
and social aspects. It is also possible to observe in this case the hybrid manner in which
cooperatives have operated and been represented in the global governance bodies of the
region, always through an international organization. In the same vein, recent projects
by the International Fund for Agricultural Development (IFAD) have been notable in
14
Employment and Social Affairs Platform 2 is a forum associated with the Regional Cooperation Council (RCC).
It serves as a space for discussions, collaborations, and initiatives focused on employment and social affairs
within the framework of regional cooperation in Southeast Europe
15
Committee for the Promotion and Advancement of Cooperatives (COPAC COOP). Transforming our world: A
cooperative 2030 Cooperative contributions to SDG 16. Website: https://www.ilo.org/wcmsp5/groups/public/-
--ed_emp/---emp_ent/---coop/documents/publication/wcms_711383.pdf. Access on February 25
th
, 2024.
JANUS.NET, e-journal of International Relations
e-ISSN: 1647-7251
VOL. 16, Nº. 2
November 2025-April 2026, pp. 255-271
The role of Cooperatives in Regional Integration: A Perspective from the Western Balkans
Rui Samarcos Lora
267
fostering cooperative initiatives in the Western Balkans region through the Rural
Competitiveness Development Program (RCDP)
16
. These initiatives aim to establish small
agricultural groupings alongside small and medium-sized enterprises and other actors in
the agricultural sector, with the goal of implementing rural development, local prosperity,
poverty alleviation, and promoting social inclusion.
It is noteworthy that the mentioned project has been operating in a hybrid manner,
whereby once the proposal was presented to farmers, they themselves established and
registered the groupings. Therefore, the initiative originated from the grassroots, in a
bottom-up perspective, in a joint process between cooperatives and international agents,
such as IFAD in this case. Although not all groupings in the project identify as
cooperatives, farmers may potentially organize themselves in this format in the future
and provide collaborative work as has been happening in the region. According to IFAD,
these groupings have already facilitated the establishment of five cooperatives and the
consolidation of twelve others. In total, a network of 700 farmers has been established
so far.
Similarly, in the areas of employment, social and economic development, and inclusion,
another case worth mentioning is related to the Romani population in Serbia.
Cooperatives have been important actors for this population, particularly in Serbia, as
Romani people have traditionally been the main workforce - albeit informal - in the waste
management sector of the country (Medina 2008). The establishment of cooperatives
has strengthened the participation of this population as well as inclusion, bringing
together competitive amounts of raw materials and increasing their bargaining power. In
the energy sector, the study “Energy Cooperatives Comparative Analysis in Eastern
Partnership Countries and Western Balkans,” conducted by Women Engage for a
Common Future (WECF) in partnership with the Green Energy Cooperative (Zelena
Energetska Zadruga-ZEZ), highlights the contribution of cooperatives to the energy
theme in the Western Balkans region. According to the study, energy communities,
including cooperatives, play a vital role in helping governments achieve climate and
energy goals. They foster commitment, reduce costs and distrust, and encourage
sustainable actions. These projects promote community cohesion and are part of a
broader strategy for inclusive development
17
.
In North Macedonia, also in the context of rural development, agriculture, employment,
and social inclusion, the project “Support to Development of Agricultural Cooperatives,”
coordinated by CARE International, along with the United Nations Office for the
Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) and the European Union, presented in its
final report that cooperative projects established in the region have led to an
improvement in agricultural practices and modernization of rural properties
18
.”
It is possible to list other similar examples that allow us to observe the role of
cooperatives as a catalyzing agent in regional integration processes. Therefore, the
16
Fundo Internacional para o Desenvolvimento da Agricultura (IFAD). Website:
https://www.ifad.org/en/web/operations/-/project/2000001813. Access on February 25
th
, 2024.
17
Women Engage for a Common Future (WECF). Website: https://www.wecf.org/wp-
content/uploads/2018/06/EnergyCooperativesONLINEshortversionKopieren.pdf. Access on February 25
th
,
2024.
18
United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs. Website:
https://reliefweb.int/report/republic-north-macedonia/final-evaluation-support-development-agricultural-
cooperatives. Access on February 25
th
, 2024.
JANUS.NET, e-journal of International Relations
e-ISSN: 1647-7251
VOL. 16, Nº. 2
November 2025-April 2026, pp. 255-271
The role of Cooperatives in Regional Integration: A Perspective from the Western Balkans
Rui Samarcos Lora
268
cooperative acts as a non-evident actor. Whether due to the hybrid format in which
cooperative initiatives are carried out or even because of the history of cooperativism in
the region, the process of integration in the Western Balkans has relied on cooperative
actions, although this contribution could be better utilized if indeed viewed from a “top-
down” perspective, as suggested by the SEE 2030 Strategy, harnessing the inherent
insurgent cosmopolitan potential of the cooperative essence.
Conclusion
The examination of the cooperative movement within the Western Balkans offers valuable
insights into the complexities of regional integration. By tracing its historical trajectory,
shaped by a confluence of communist legacies and regional conflicts, we gain a nuanced
understanding of its divergent path compared to cooperative movements in Europe. This
nuanced perspective underscores the importance of appreciating the multifaceted roles
of cooperatives as agents of change within the region’s integration dynamics.
Furthermore, our analysis illuminates the significant but often understated contributions
of cooperatives to European integration. As the Western Balkans navigate the path
toward EU accession, understanding the pivotal role of cooperatives becomes imperative.
Not only do cooperatives possess the potential to facilitate the accession process, but
they also serve as vital drivers of regional cohesion and cooperation among Western
Balkan nations.
Despite facing challenges stemming from historical legacies and legal frameworks,
cooperatives demonstrate resilience and remain integral actors in the regional landscape.
While their impact may not always be immediately discernible, their influence permeates
various spheres of regionalism, offering avenues for enhanced collaboration and
integration. By acknowledging and harnessing the latent potential of cooperatives,
stakeholders can unlock new opportunities for synergy between local and global forces,
fostering a more robust and inclusive integration process in the Western Balkans.
In conclusion, prioritizing the role of cooperatives as catalysts for integration represents
a crucial step toward realizing the region’s aspirations for both regional cohesion and
eventual EU accession. By leveraging the inherent strengths of the cooperative
movement, policymakers can pave the way for sustainable and inclusive integration,
positioning the Western Balkans as a dynamic participant in the broader European
landscape. While the cooperative movement faces shared challenges across the region,
future research and policy initiatives must account for the distinct national contexts. The
differing legal frameworks in Serbia, the complex governance structure in Bosnia and
Herzegovina, and the specific post-independence challenges in Kosovo all necessitate
tailored approaches to effectively harness the power of cooperatives for integration.
References
Abate, G. T., Francesconi, G. N., & Getnet, K. (2014). Impact of Agricultural Cooperatives
on Smallholders Technical Efficiency: Empirical Evidence from Ethiopia. Annals of Public
and Cooperative Economics, 85(2), 257-286.
JANUS.NET, e-journal of International Relations
e-ISSN: 1647-7251
VOL. 16, Nº. 2
November 2025-April 2026, pp. 255-271
The role of Cooperatives in Regional Integration: A Perspective from the Western Balkans
Rui Samarcos Lora
269
Balcanicaucaso.org. (2023). The state of progress of regional policy in the European
integration process of North Macedonia. Accessed on 9 September
2025: https://www.balcanicaucaso.org/eng/Areas/North-Macedonia/The-state-of-
progress-of-regional-policy-in-the-European-integration-process-of-North-Macedonia-
233282.
Barham, J., & Chitemi, C. (2009). Collective action initiatives to improve marketing
performance: Lessons from farmer groups in Tanzania. Food policy, 34(1), 53-59.
Bietti, E., Etxeberria, A., Mannan, M., & Wong, J. (2021). Data Cooperatives in Europe:
A Legal and Empirical Investigation. White Paper Created as Part of The New School’s
Platform Cooperativism Consortium and Harvard University’s Berkman Klein Center for
Internet & Society Research Sprint.
Bijman, J., Muradian, R., & Cechin, A. (2012). Agricultural cooperatives and value chain
coordination. In Value Chains, Social Inclusion and Economic Development (pp. 82-101).
Routledge.
Bojnec, S. (2005). Agriculture in post-war Bosnia and Herzegovina: Social buffer vs.
development (No. 724-2016-49329).
Chagwiza, C., Muradian, R., & Ruben, R. (2016). Cooperative membership and dairy
performance among smallholders in Ethiopia. Food policy, 59, 165-173.
Chaves Ávila, R., & Monzón, J. L. (2017). Recent Evolutions of the Social Economy in the
European Union.
Europe, C. CEDP.(2019). Cooperatives and Peace: Strengthening Democracy,
Participation and Trust. A Case Study Approach.
European Parliament. (2024). Fact Sheets on the European Union: The Western Balkans.
Accessed on 9 September 2025:
https://www.europarl.europa.eu/factsheets/en/sheet/168/the-western-balkans
Fan, S., Brzeska, J., Keyzer, M., & Halsema, A. (2013). From subsistence to profit:
Transforming smallholder farms (Vol. 26). Intl Food Policy Res Inst.
Gardner, B. L., & Lerman, Z. (2006). Agricultural cooperative enterprise in the transition
from socialist collective farming (No. 888-2016-65064).
Gardner, B. L., & Lerman, Z. (2006). Agricultural cooperative enterprise in the transition
from socialist collective farming (No. 888-2016-65064).
Gava, O., Ardakani, Z., Delalić, A., Azzi, N., & Bartolini, F. (2021). Agricultural
cooperatives contributing to the alleviation of rural poverty. The case of Konjic (Bosnia
and Herzegovina). Journal of Rural Studies, 82, 328-339.
Grubbström, A., & Sooväli-Sepping, H. (2012). Estonian family farms in transition: a
study of intangible assets and gender issues in generational succession. Journal of
Historical Geography, 38(3), 329-339.
Hagedorn, K. (2014). Post‐Socialist Farmers’cooperatives in Central and Eastern
Europe. Annals of Public and Cooperative Economics, 85(4), 555-577.
Ifri.org. (2017). The Challenge of the European Integration of Kosovo: Regional
Cooperation and Neighbourly Relations. Accessed on 9 September 2025:
JANUS.NET, e-journal of International Relations
e-ISSN: 1647-7251
VOL. 16, Nº. 2
November 2025-April 2026, pp. 255-271
The role of Cooperatives in Regional Integration: A Perspective from the Western Balkans
Rui Samarcos Lora
270
http://www.ifri.org/en/challenge-european-integration-kosovo-regional-cooperation-
and-neighbourly-relations
Krasavac, B. C., & Petković, G. (2015). Cooperatives in Serbia evolution and current
issues. Економика пољопривреде, 62(3), 723-735.
Ljubojevic, G., & Maksimovic Sekulic, N. (2021). Serbian Agricultural Cooperatives and
Their Path Towards the European Union - Legal Aspect. Ekonomika
Poljoprivrede, *68*(1), 173-190. https://doi.org/10.5937/ekoPolj2101173L
Lora, R. (2023). Regionalism in Southern Europe: The cooperativism in the Western
Balkans’ integration process [Master’s thesis, Universidade de Évora].
Ma, W., & Abdulai, A. (2016). Does cooperative membership improve household welfare?
Evidence from apple farmers in China. Food Policy, 58, 94-102.
Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Serbia. (n.d.). Regional Initiatives. Accessed on 9 September
2025, at https://www.mfa.gov.rs/en/foreign-policy/eu-integration/regional-initiatives
Mojo, D., Fischer, C., & Degefa, T. (2017). The determinants and economic impacts of
membership in coffee farmer cooperatives: recent evidence from rural Ethiopia. Journal
of Rural studies, 50, 84-94.
Poole, N. (2017). Smallholder agriculture and market participation. Food and Agriculture
Organization of the United Nations (FAO).
Pugh, M. (2002). Postwar political economy in Bosnia and Herzegovina: The spoils of
peace. Global governance, 8, 467.
Pugh, M. (2002). Protectorates and spoils of peace: Political economy in south-east
Europe. In Shadow globalization, ethnic conflicts and new wars (pp. 59-81). Routledge.
Radosav, A., Djukic, S. e Jovanovic, D. (2014). Cooperative significance for economic
development of agro-rural economy of Bosnia and Hercegovina. In Book of proceedings:
Fifth International Scientific Agricultural Symposium Agrosym 2014, Jahorina, Bosnia and
Herzegovina, October 23-26, 2014 (pp. 1027-1033). University of East Sarajevo, Faculty
of Agriculture
Rosandic, A., & Kusinikova, N. (2018). Social economy in eastern neighbourhood and in
the Western Balkans. Synthesis Report from Directorate-General for Neighbourhood and
Enlargement Negotiations (DG NEAR).
Santos, B. de S. (2007). Beyond Abyssal Thinking: From Global Lines to Ecologies of
Knowledges. Review (Fernand Braudel Center), 30(1), 45-89.
Van Houtte, H. (1999). Mass property claim resolution in a post-war society: The
commission for real property claims in Bosnia and Herzegovina. International &
Comparative Law Quarterly, 48(3), 625-638.
Vieta, M., & Lionais, D. (2015). The cooperative advantage for community development.
Journal of Entrepreneurial and organizational diversity, 4(1), 1-10.
Volk, T., Rednak, M., & Erjavec, E. (2014). Cross country analysis of agriculture and
agricultural Policy of Southeastern European countries in comparison with the European
Union. Agricultural policy and European integration in Southeastern Europe, 9-37.
JANUS.NET, e-journal of International Relations
e-ISSN: 1647-7251
VOL. 16, Nº. 2
November 2025-April 2026, pp. 255-271
The role of Cooperatives in Regional Integration: A Perspective from the Western Balkans
Rui Samarcos Lora
271
Wegren, S. K., & O’Brien, D. J. (2018). Introduction to symposium: Smallholders in
communist and postcommunist societies. Journal of Agrarian Change, 18(4), 869-881.
Wynne-Jones, S. (2017). Understanding farmer co-operation: Exploring practices of
social relatedness and emergent affects. Journal of Rural Studies, 53, 259-268.
Zheng, S., Wang, Z., & Awokuse, T. O. (2012). Determinants of producers’ participation
in agricultural cooperatives: evidence from Northern China. Applied Economic
Perspectives and Policy, 34(1), 167-186.
OBSERVARE
Universidade Autónoma de Lisboa
e-ISSN: 1647-7251
VOL. 16, Nº. 2
novembro 2025-abril 2026
272
MULHERES EM ORGANIZAÇÕES INTERNACIONAIS: O CASO DE MARIA DE
LOURDES PINTASILGO NA UNESCO (1975 -1979)
RAQUEL VALENTE DOS SANTOS
raquelvalentedossantos@gmail.com
Centro de Estudos Internacionais–ISCTE (Portugal). bolseira de Doutoramento da Fundação para
Ciência e Tecnologia (FCT) com referência 2022.14193.BD e doutoranda em História Moderna e
Contemporânea – Defesa e Relações Internacionais no ISCTE – Instituto Universitário de Lisboa.
Desde 2023 é Professora Assistente Convidada na Faculdade de Letras da Universidade de
Coimbra, https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5727-4406
Resumo
Maria de Lourdes Pintasilgo, a única mulher a desempenhar, até hoje, o cargo de primeiro-
ministro em Portugal, teve um papel de relevo nos mais importantes fóruns internacionais. O
presente artigo analisa a atuação, enquanto Embaixadora de Portugal junto da UNESCO, entre
1974 a 1979. Com base em bibliografia de referência, documentação de arquivo e periódicos
da época, procura-se investigar o processo de decisão que conduziu ao pedido de regresso de
Portugal à UNESCO; compreender quais as razões da escolha de Maria de Lourdes Pintassilgo
para desempenhar o cargo de Embaixadora; e identificar as suas principais áreas de atuação,
com a finalidade de garantir a reinserção de Portugal na organização, após a saída voluntária
em 1971, por decisão do Governo português.
Palavras-chave
Embaixadora, Maria de Lourdes Pintasilgo, Portugal, Política Externa Portuguesa, UNESCO.
Abstract
Maria de Lourdes Pintasilgo, the only woman, to this day, to serve as Prime Minister in
Portugal, played a prominent role in major international forums. This article analyzes her
intervention as Portugal's Ambassador to UNESCO between the years 1974 and 1979. Based
on reference bibliographies, archival documents, and periodicals from that time, it seeks to
investigate the decision-making process that led to Portugal's request to rejoin UNESCO; the
reasons behind the choice of Maria de Lourdes Pintasilgo for the position of ambassador; and
to identify her main areas of activity aimed at ensuring Portugal's reintegration into the
organization, following the voluntary withdrawal in 1971, by decision of the Portuguese
Government.
Keywords
Ambassador, Maria de Lourdes Pintasilgo, Portugal, Portuguese Foreign Policy, UNESCO.
Como citar este artigo
Santos, Raquel Valente dos (2025). Mulheres em Organizações Internacionais: O Caso de Maria de
Lourdes Pintasilgo na UNESCO (1975 -1979). Janus.net, e-journal of international relations. VOL.
16, Nº. 2, novembro 2025-abril 2026, pp. 272-289. DOI https://doi.org/10.26619/1647-
7251.16.2.15
Artigo submetido em 14 de setembro 2024 e aceite para publicação em 7 de setembro
de 2025.
JANUS.NET, e-journal of International Relations
e-ISSN: 1647-7251
VOL. 16, Nº. 2
Novembro 2025-abril 2026, pp. 272-289
Mulheres em Organizações Internacionais: O Caso de Maria de Lourdes Pintasilgo
na UNESCO (1975 -1979)
Raquel Valente dos Santos
273
MULHERES EM ORGANIZAÇÕES INTERNACIONAIS: O CASO DE
MARIA DE LOURDES PINTASILGO NA UNESCO (1975 -1979)
RAQUEL VALENTE DOS SANTOS
A UNESCO e a política externa portuguesa
A cooperação intelectual, em termos multilaterais, remonta ao final da Primeira Guerra
Mundial. Através da Sociedade das Nações (SDN)
1
, foi criado, a 4 de janeiro de 1922, o
Comité Internacional de Cooperação Intelectual (CICI), ao qual foi atribuído o estatuto
de órgão consultivo do Conselho da SDN, com objetivos de “renovar os vínculos entre
academias e especialistas, os quais foram paralisados no decorrer da guerra; a
necessidade de estabelecer uma coordenação entre as diversas atividades nacionais; e
a pertinência de estabelecer Comités Nacionais para a cooperação intelectual”
(Valderrama, 1995, p. 2).
O rápido sucesso do Comité tornou necessário repensar o conceito de “cooperação
internacional”, o que conduziu, em setembro de 1924, à criação do Instituto Internacional
de Cooperação Intelectual (IICI), com sede em Paris.
Com o estabelecimento do IICI, consolidou-se o entendimento de que a cooperação
intelectual visava “a colaboração internacional para assegurar o avanço da civilização em
geral e do conhecimento humano, particularmente, o desenvolvimento da disseminação
das ciências, letras e artes”, bem como “criar um estado de espírito propício à resolução
pacífica de problemas internacionais no âmbito da Liga das Nações” (Valderrama, 1995,
pp. 3 - 4).
O IICI funcionou durante quatorze anos e desempenhou um papel de grande relevância
em várias áreas, entre as quais se destacam a educação, as ciências sociais, atividade
de âmbito científico, cinema, bibliotecas, arquivos e direitos de autor.
Entre 1939 e 1945, com o decorrer da Segunda Guerra Mundial, as atividades do Instituto
ficaram suspensas e, terminado o conflito, o IICI cessou funções com a assinatura, a 18
de abril de 1946, de um acordo que previa a transferência dos seus arquivos para as
Nações Unidas, a iniciar em1947 (Lacoste, 1993, p. 29).
1
Sobre a SDN ver: Ostrower, Gary (1995), The League of Nations. From 1919 to 1929, The International
Cooperation Towards Peace in the 20ª Century, Nova Iorque, Avery Publishing Group; Gill, George (1996), The
League of Nations from 1929 to 1946, Avery Publishing Group; Kennedy, Paul (2006). The Parliament of Man.
The Past, Present, and Future of the United Nations, New York: Random House; Marbeau, M (2001). La Société
des Nations, Presses Universitaires de France.
JANUS.NET, e-journal of International Relations
e-ISSN: 1647-7251
VOL. 16, Nº. 2
Novembro 2025-abril 2026, pp. 272-289
Mulheres em Organizações Internacionais: O Caso de Maria de Lourdes Pintasilgo
na UNESCO (1975 -1979)
Raquel Valente dos Santos
274
Com a criação da Organização das Nações Unidas, em 1945, foi estabelecido um
conjunto de agências especializadas sob o seu domínio. Para assumir as funções
anteriormente desempenhadas pelo IICI, foi fundada, a 16 de novembro de 1946, a
Organização das Nações Unidas para a Educação, a Ciência e a Cultura (UNESCO). O
principal objetivo da UNESCO - "contribuir para a paz e a segurança, promovendo a
colaboração entre as nações por meio da educação, ciência e cultura"
2
- conduziu a que
a organização fosse considerada uma esperança para “governar” as relações
internacionais de forma mais democrática e pacífica (Maurel, 2010, p.19). Contudo, o
contexto internacional em que em foi criada, marcado pela devastação do após Segunda
Guerra Mundial e pelo início da Guerra Fria, dificultou a sua ação, evidenciando-se, desde
cedo, uma divisão entre Ocidente / Oriente (Maurel, 2005, pp. 123-124).
Ao longo dos anos, tem sido notável o papel da UNESCO na criação de diversas iniciativas
globais de carácter cultural, científico e educacional, exemplificadas pela proteção do
património cultural, a promoção da ciência e pela erradicação do analfabetismo. Essas
iniciativas são transmitidas aos Estados-membros, sendo particularmente relevante
observar a forma diferenciada como cada um as implementa (Duedal, 2016, pp. 153-
181).
No entanto, apesar dos sucessos alcançados, a organização enfrenta diversos obstáculos,
entre os quais se destacam, a localização da sede da UNESCO em Paris e o papel
preponderante dos Estados europeus, o que conduz a que muitas das suas ações se
concentrem, essencialmente, na Europa (Maurel, 2012, p. 62). Acrescem ainda o
nepotismo nas nomeações para cargos, as tensões entre Estados-membros, a excessiva
burocracia e os problemas de financiamento, fatores que, em conjunto, dificultam a plena
afirmação dos ideais da UNESCO (Maurel, 2010, pp. 173- 216).
No que respeita às relações estabelecidas entre Portugal e a UNESCO, estas estiveram
sempre diretamente relacionadas com a posição do país nas Nações Unidas. Apesar de
manifestar interesse na organização logo após a sua criação, em 1946, Portugal adotou
uma atitude cautelosa: ao longo das décadas de 1940 e 1950 manteve em aberto a
possibilidade de adesão; em 1961 procedeu à nomeação de um Observador Permanente;
e apenas em 1965 apresentou formalmente o pedido de adesão como Estado Membro
de pleno direito. Importa salientar que este pedido coincidiu com o momento em que a
questão colonial portuguesa adquiriu uma visibilidade internacional, particularmente,
considerável. A década de 1960 ficou marcada pela independência de mais de uma
dezena de novos Estados africanos, bem como pela aprovação, pela ONU, de um conjunto
de resoluções (1514, 1541 e 1542) relacionadas com a recusa portuguesa em fornecer
informações relativas aos seus territórios coloniais (Santos, 2011, pp. 63-68).
Nas Nações Unidas consolidou-se uma maioria fortemente crítica à colonização, enquanto
o Governo português mantinha-se agarrando à ideia de “conservar um império colonial,
solidamente, amarrado à metrópole” (Silva, 1995, p. 38). Se os representantes
portugueses na ONU enfrentaram “o espírito anticolonialista” e a “hostilidade da
comunidade internacional” (Teixeira, 2000, p.101), nos fóruns da UNESCO a situação
não foi, de todo, diferente.
2
Constitution of the United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization, consultado em
https://www.unesco.org/en a 10 de agosto de 2024.
JANUS.NET, e-journal of International Relations
e-ISSN: 1647-7251
VOL. 16, Nº. 2
Novembro 2025-abril 2026, pp. 272-289
Mulheres em Organizações Internacionais: O Caso de Maria de Lourdes Pintasilgo
na UNESCO (1975 -1979)
Raquel Valente dos Santos
275
Desde a criação da UNESCO até a adesão formal de Portugal, em 1965, o país adotou
uma postura de “constante avaliação e reavaliação das vantagens e das desvantagens
inerentes à sua participação na organização” (Rodrigues, 2006, p. 179). Contrariamente,
às expetativas do Governo português, o estatuto de Estado-Membro intensificou as
críticas à política colonial portuguesa. Pouco após a adesão, ainda em 1965, o Conselho
Executivo da UNESCO aprovou a Decisão 70EX/1, determinando que Portugal não seria
convidado a participar nas atividades da organização até à divulgação dos resultados de
um estudo de campo sobre a educação nos territórios africanos sob jurisdição
portuguesa. Nesse mesmo ano, foram também aprovadas as resoluções XI e XX, que
condenavam todas as formas de colonialismo e racismo. Em 1968, a Assembleia Geral
da UNESCO reforçou a sua posição anticolonialista ao aprovar a Resolução 9.12, que
condenava a manutenção dos regimes coloniais e de todas as formas de discriminação
racial, bem como a Resolução 9.14, que repudiava os atos de agressão cometidos pelas
forças militares portuguesas em África, instando os Estados-Membros a suspenderem
toda a cooperação com Portugal nas áreas da educação, ciência e cultura. Dois anos
depois, em outubro de 1970, o Conselho Executivo da UNESCO decidiu prosseguir com
o apoio às organizações e aos refugiados provenientes de territórios coloniais já
libertados (Santos, 2021, pp. 93-94).
Perante as constantes resoluções, o Governo português manifestou a sua insatisfação
face à orientação da UNESCO contra Portugal, considerando o conjunto de medidas
adotadas uma ingerência nos assuntos internos do Estado português. Em consequência,
o Ministro dos Negócios Estrangeiros, Rui d'Espinay Patrício, comunicou ao Diretor-Geral
da organização que Portugal solicitava a sua saída de Estado-Membro da UNESCO,
formalizada em dezembro em 1972.
Somente em Setembro de 1974, com a democratização do regime português, resultante
da Revolução de 25 de Abril, Portugal regressou UNESCO, sendo a liderança da Missão
Portuguesa atribuída a Maria de Lourdes Pintasilgo.
Maria de Lourdes Pintasilgo: Breve Biografia
Maria de Lourdes Ruivo da Silva Pintassilgo nasceu a 18 de janeiro de 1930, em Abrantes,
filha de Jaime de Matos Pintassilgo, comerciante, e de Amélia do Carmo Ruivo da Silva
Matos Pintassilgo, doméstica (Souza, 2013, p. 345).
Em 1933, três anos após o seu nascimento, foi institucionalizado em Portugal, o regime
do Estado Novo, assumindo a chefia do Governo António de Oliveira Salazar. Desde cedo,
para Maria de Lourdes, “obedecer e respeitar os chefes, exigindo-se a si própria a
excelência, sempre ultrapassável” , constituiu um lema de vida que manteve nas duas
primeiras décadas de existência, altura em que “a submissão dará lugar à contestação,
embora sempre dentro do cenário de aperfeiçoamento contínuo” (Beltrão & Katton, 2007,
p.22).
Após a mudança da família para Lisboa, em 1937, Maria de Lourdes Pintasilgo realizou a
instrução primária no Colégio Garrett, obtendo as melhores classificações da instituição,
e em outubro de 1940, ingressou no Liceu Dona Filipa de Lencastre (Beltrão & Katton,
2007, p.33).
Aluna de mérito e excelência, decidiu, em 1948, ingressar no Instituto
JANUS.NET, e-journal of International Relations
e-ISSN: 1647-7251
VOL. 16, Nº. 2
Novembro 2025-abril 2026, pp. 272-289
Mulheres em Organizações Internacionais: O Caso de Maria de Lourdes Pintasilgo
na UNESCO (1975 -1979)
Raquel Valente dos Santos
276
Superior Técnico (IST), para cursar Engenharia Química. Uma escolha deveras
interessante: “feudo masculino por excelência”, poucas eram as raparigas que
frequentavam o IST, “faculdade de engenharia com prestígio internacional e um grau de
exigência que ultrapassava muitas das congéneres europeias” (Beltrão e Katton, 2007,
p. 65). Em 1953, Maria de Lourdes Pintasilgo concluiu a licenciatura e iniciou a sua
carreira profissional como investigadora bolseira do Instituto de Alta Cultura, da Junta
de Energia Nuclear, e a partir de julho de 1954 desempenhou funções na Companhia
União Fabril (CUF).
Foi durante os anos da universidade que Maria de Lourdes Pintasilgo que se aproximou
da vida internacional. No primeiro ano no IST aderiu à Juventude Universitária Católica
Feminina (JUCF), ocupando o cargo de Presidente do organismo de 1952 a 1956, e
organizando, em colaboração com Adérito de Sedas Nunes, o I Congresso Nacional da
Juventude Universitária Católica (Amaral, 2009, pp.77-96).
Durante o exercício das suas funções, Maria de Lourdes Pintasilgo viajou com frequência
ao estrangeiro, adquirindo uma “consciência cosmopolita”, e avaliando à distância o
“atraso do seu país e o sistema político que o amordaça” (Beltrão e Katton, 2007, p. 83).
Na qualidade de presidente da JUCF participou no Movimento Internacional de Estudantes
Católicos (Pax Romana), destacando-se de tal modo que foi escolhida para integrar o
Comité Diretor, e, mais tarde, eleita a primeira mulher presidente do Movimento (1956-
1958). Durante as suas viagens internacionais, estabeleceu contato com o Movimento
Graal,
3
o qual introduziu em Portugal, no ano de 1962, em colaboração com Teresa Santa
Clara Gomes. Nesse período, abandonou a carreira de engenheira, para desenvolver, no
quadro do Movimento, projetos “diretamente com camadas sociais onde a necessidade
de transformação mais se fazia sentir”. Entre 1964 e 1969 foi eleita Vice-Presidente do
Graal Internacional (anos em que estabeleceu residência em Paris), sendo responsável
pela “coordenação de equipas em vários continentes, sobretudo orientadas para o
desenvolvimento social e para a promoção das mulheres enquanto motores de
transformação da sociedade” (Bettencourt, 1995, p. 219).
Em Portugal, Oliveira Salazar foi substituído, em julho de 1968, por Marcello Caetano na
chefia do Governo. O novo Presidente do Conselho, apreciando “a capacidade
organizativa, a agilidade verbal, a inteireza ética, a imensa cultura técnica e humanística”
de Maria de Lourdes Pintasilgo, convidou-a a desempenhar funções políticas como
Procuradora da Câmara Corporativa,
4
cargo que ocupou, na qualidade de independente,
até 1974 (Beltrão e Karron, 2007, pp. 106-107). Seguiram-se, em Portugal, outras
funções governativas: consultora do Secretário de Estado do Trabalho e Previdência
Social, Joaquim Silva Pinto entre 1970 e 1973, e em novembro de 1973 foi nomeada
presidente da Comissão para a Política Social relativa à Mulher onde “foram propostas
diversas alterações ao direito da família e a legislação sobre o trabalho das mulheres”
(Souza, 2013, p. 588).
Entre 1971 e 1972, a convite de Marcello Caetano, Maria de Lourdes Pintasilgo integrou
a delegação portuguesa à Assembleia Geral da ONU, participando em reuniões nas quais
3
Sobre o Graal ver: Fontes, Paulo de Oliveira (2001) << Movimentos eclesiais contemporâneos >> in Carlos
Moreira Azevedo (Dir.) Dicionário de História Religiosa de Portugal, Vol. IV, Lisboa, Círculo de leitores, pp. 459-
470.
4
Entre 1969 e 1973, Maria de Lourdes Pintasilgo foi a única mulher na Câmara Corporativa.
JANUS.NET, e-journal of International Relations
e-ISSN: 1647-7251
VOL. 16, Nº. 2
Novembro 2025-abril 2026, pp. 272-289
Mulheres em Organizações Internacionais: O Caso de Maria de Lourdes Pintasilgo
na UNESCO (1975 -1979)
Raquel Valente dos Santos
277
se debateu a autodeterminação dos territórios portugueses. Durante esses encontros,
defendeu “a falta de um estudo objetivo por parte das Nações Unidas do conceito de
autodeterminação”; propondo a criação de um grupo de reflexão sobre o problema de
África “com gente competente e sensível à questão do ultramar” (Antunes, 1985, pp.
361-362).
Após a Revolução de 25 de abril de 1974, assumiu os cargos de Secretária de Estado da
Segurança Social em 1974, durante o I Governo Provisório, e de Ministra dos Assuntos
Sociais entre 1974-1975.
No âmbito da política nacional, o ano de 1979 representou, para Maria de Lourdes
Pintassilgo, o maior desafio: foi eleita Primeira-Ministra, sendo até hoje a única mulher
portuguesa a assumir o cargo. O V Governo Constitucional, um governo de iniciativa
presidencial
5
, tomou posse a 1 de agosto de 1979, constituído por “uma equipa
simultaneamente pluralista e coesa, pragmática e idealista” (Pintassilgo, 1980, p.71), e
apostando “no diálogo com as populações e num programa de ousadas reformas sociais
no domínio da saúde e de previdência” (Reis, 1994, p. 68). O V Governo terminou o seu
mandato a 3 de janeiro de 1980, na sequência das eleições a 2 dezembro de 1979, que
deram a vitória à Aliança Democrática, assumindo o cargo de Primeiro-Ministro, Francisco
Sá Carneiro.
Ainda no domínio da política nacional, Maria de Lourdes Pintasilgo candidatou-se à
Presidência da República Portuguesa, em 1986, obtendo apenas 7,38% da votação,
sendo eleito para o cargo, Mário Soares. Perante este desfecho, e “perdidas as
esperanças de um papel cimeiro na vida pública portuguesa, ferida no seu orgulho e
frustrada nas expectativas (…), tem, felizmente dentro de si, muitos caminhos, muitas
atividades onde continuar a investir” (Beltrão & Katton, 2007, p. 327).
A partir dos anos 1980, foi no plano internacional que Maria de Lourdes Pintasilgo
desenvolveu um conjunto de atividades de grande prestígio. Em 1982, integrou o
Conselho Diretivo do World Policy Institute, em Nova Iorque; em 1983, foi membro do
Conselho Diretivo da Universidade das Nações Unidas (até 1989), por designação do
Secretário-Geral da ONU e do Diretor-geral da UNESCO; e, nesse mesmo ano, foi
convidada a integrar o Conselho de Interação de Ex- Chefes de Governo, tendo
oportunidade de conviver com importantes nomes da política internacional, como Helmut
Schmidt e Jimmy Carter, entre outros. Tornou-se ainda membro de diversas entidades,
incluindo o Clube de Roma (Paris- 1984), a Fundação Europa (América Latina - 1984), e
o Sisterhood Is Global Institute (Nova Iorque- 1986). Em 1986, criou, em colaboração
com Brice Lalonde, François Roelants de Vivier e Cármen Diez Riveira, a Plataforma
Europeia para o Ambiente (Beltrão & Katton, pp. 286;288; 342). Por fim, de 14 de
setembro de 1987 a 24 de julho de 1989 exerceu funções como deputada no Parlamento
Europeu, por convite do Partido Socialista, aceitando a posição na qualidade de
independente.
5
Durante a presidência de António Ramalho Eanes foram nomeados três governos de iniciativa presidencial
entre 1978 e 1979: o primeiro, sob liderança do engenheiro Nobre da Costa; um segundo governo, sob
liderança de Carlos Alberto Mota Pinto, e por fim, o terceiro e último, sob liderança de Maria de Lourdes
Pintasilgo.
JANUS.NET, e-journal of International Relations
e-ISSN: 1647-7251
VOL. 16, Nº. 2
Novembro 2025-abril 2026, pp. 272-289
Mulheres em Organizações Internacionais: O Caso de Maria de Lourdes Pintasilgo
na UNESCO (1975 -1979)
Raquel Valente dos Santos
278
Na década de 1990, Maria de Lourdes Pintasilgo integrou diversos organismos
internacionais de relevo. Foi membro do Conselho da Ciência e da Tecnologia ao Serviço
do Desenvolvimento (1989-1991) do Grupo de Peritos da Organização para a Cooperação
e Desenvolvimento Económico (1990-1991). Entre 1990 e 1992, destacou-se no papel
de Conselheira Especial do Reitor da Universidade das Nações Unidas. Exerceu,
igualmente, funções de liderança, presidindo ao Grupo de Peritos do Conselho da Europa
sobre Igualdade e Democracia (1992-1994), à Comissão Mundial Independente sobre a
População e Qualidade de Vida (1992 -1997), ao Conselho Diretivo do Instituto Mundial
de Investigação sobre Desenvolvimento Económico, da Universidade das Nações Unidas
(1993-1998) e ao Comité dos Sábios (1995-1996). Foi ainda membro do Instituto para
o Desenvolvimento e a Ação Cultural (Rio de Janeiro, 1997), do Institute for Democratic
Electoral Assistance (Estocolmo, 1997); e do Conselho de Women World Leaders
(Cambridge,1998).
A 2 de fevereiro de 1991, Maria de Lourdes Pintasilgo recebeu da Universidade Católica
de Lovaina (Bélgica), o grau de Doutoramento Honoris Causa “gesto de enorme valor,
dado o prestígio desta universidade no mundo intelectual, e dentro da Igreja” (Beltrão &
Katton, 2007, p. 353). Foi ainda distinguida com diversas condecorações, entre as quais
se destacam: The 1986 Living Legacy Award, atribuído pelo Women’s International
Center, em San Diego; a Grã-Cruz da Ordem Militar do Nosso Senhor Jesus Cristo (1981);
a Grã-Cruz da Ordem do Infante D. Henrique (1994); a Grã-Cruz da Ordem da Liberdade
(2017)
6
; e a Medalha Machado de Assis pela Academia Brasileira de Letras (1997).
Desde 2001 presidiu à Fundação Cuidar O Futuro, instituição de direito privado, sem fins
lucrativos, fundada a 13 de julho desse ano, e responsável pela preservação e divulgação
do seu espólio documental.
Maria de Lourdes Pintasilgo faleceu em Lisboa, a 10 de julho de 2004, aos 74 anos.
Embaixadora na UNESCO (1975-1979)
Após a Revolução de abril de 1974, o Governo português ambicionava, em termos de
política externa, a plena integração em organismos internacionais, quer através do
reforço da sua posição naqueles que já era membro, quer pela adesão às organizações
a que ainda não pertencia.
No caso específico da UNESCO, a documentação existente demonstra que, logo no mês
seguinte à Revolução dos Cravos, em maio de 1974, o Ministro dos Negócios
Estrangeiros, Mário Soares, iniciou a recolha de toda a informação e dos procedimentos
necessários para garantir o regresso de Portugal à organização. Todavia, a situação
colonial, e o rumo a seguir relativamente ao processo de descolonização ainda não se
encontravam, claramente, definidos. Apenas com a promulgação da Lei 7/74, que
formalizou o reconhecimento do direito à autodeterminação e independência dos
territórios até então sob domínio colonial português, o país encontrava-se, totalmente,
disponível para iniciar conversações com os organismos internacionais.
6
As condecorações em Portugal podem ser consultadas em https://www.ordens.presidencia.pt/
JANUS.NET, e-journal of International Relations
e-ISSN: 1647-7251
VOL. 16, Nº. 2
Novembro 2025-abril 2026, pp. 272-289
Mulheres em Organizações Internacionais: O Caso de Maria de Lourdes Pintasilgo
na UNESCO (1975 -1979)
Raquel Valente dos Santos
279
A 30 de agosto de 1974, Mário Soares remeteu uma carta ao Diretor-Geral da UNESCO,
René Maheu, notificando-o da intenção do Governo português em promover o regresso
do país à organização, acrescentando que Portugal se comprometia “fielmente a cumprir
todas as estipulações contidas no Ato Constitutivo da organização”
7
. Simultaneamente,
procedeu à entrega, no Ministério dos Negócios Estrangeiros de Londres
8
, do instrumento
diplomático relativo à readmissão de Portugal na UNESCO.
O regresso efetivo de Portugal à organização foi formalizado a 11 de setembro de 1974,
ocasião em que o Diretor-Geral da UNESCO, René Maheu, felicitou o país pela iniciativa,
sublinhando que a “cooperação entre Portugal e a UNESCO é mutuamente benéfica e
decisiva”
9
.
Após o regresso do Portugal à UNESCO, impunha-se a criação de uma Missão Permanente
em Paris, o que foi definido a 30 de junho de 1975, com a promulgação do Decreto-Lei
329/75, pelo Presidente da República Portuguesa, Francisco da Costa Gomes. A
composição da Missão Permanente de Portugal junto da UNESCO ficou então estabelecida
nos seguintes termos: um chefe de missão, na qualidade de representante permanente;
um funcionário do serviço diplomático “de categoria igual ou inferior a conselheiro de
embaixada”, um consultor cultural e/ou científico, e por fim, um secretário, dois
escriturários-dactilógrafos, um motorista e um contínuo
10
.
A principal questão que se colocava dizia respeito a quem deveria assumir a liderança da
Missão Portuguesa em Paris. A dúvida foi esclarecida a 23 de setembro de 1975, quando,
em carta enviada ao Diretor-Geral da UNESCO, Amadou Mahtar M´Bow, o Ministro dos
Negócios Estrangeiros, Ernesto de Melo Antunes, informou que o Governo português
decidira nomear Maria de Lourdes Pintassilgo como embaixadora junto da organização.
11
Maria de Lourdes Pintasilgo partiu rumo a Paris, em dezembro de 1975, para
desempenhar o cargo. O seu primeiro desafio enquanto embaixadora consistiu na seleção
dos membros que integrariam a Missão sob a sua liderança. Para Conselheiro de
Embaixada escolheu Luís de Sousa Lobo, Professor da Universidade Nova de Lisboa; para
conselheiro científico nomeou Jorge Ritto; e, por fim, designou Alberto Melo para a àrea
da educação
12
.
A instalação da Missão Portuguesa em Paris foi bem-sucedida, tendo a embaixadora e os
restantes membros da equipa sido calorosamente, pelas demais delegações. Esta
receção, sem dúvida, acabou por “facilitar a tarefa da nossa representante e permitir-lhe
perseguir o objetivo estabelecido pelo Governo Português de reforçar os laços com a
UNESCO”
13
.
7
Arquivo Histórico Diplomático (AHD), CLT, Maço 411 A, Carta de Mário Soares a René Maheu, 30 de agosto
de 1974.
8
Local onde se encontra depositado a Constituição da UNESCO desde 1946.
9
AHD, CLT, Maço 411 A, Carta de René Maheu, 20 de setembro de 1974.
10
Portaria 411-A/75 de 2 de julho de 1975, Diário do Governo n.º 150/1975, 2º Suplemento, Série I de 1975-
07-02.
11
Arquivo Maria de Lourdes Pintasilgo (AMLP), Pasta 0105.018, Carta de Ernesto Melo Antunes a Amadou
Mahtar M´Bow, 23 de setembro de 1975.
12
AMLP, Pasta 0039054, Carta de Maria de Lourdes Pintasilgo a Humberto Delgado, Diretor Geral dos Serviços
Centrais do MNE, 30 de setembro de 1975.
13
AMLP, Pasta 0237.029, Carta de Ernesto Melo Antunes para Amadou Mahtar M´Bow, 24 de fevereiro de
1976.
JANUS.NET, e-journal of International Relations
e-ISSN: 1647-7251
VOL. 16, Nº. 2
Novembro 2025-abril 2026, pp. 272-289
Mulheres em Organizações Internacionais: O Caso de Maria de Lourdes Pintasilgo
na UNESCO (1975 -1979)
Raquel Valente dos Santos
280
Simultaneamente, e com o intuito de assegurar um pleno aproveitamento da participação
portuguesa na UNESCO foi criado no âmbito do Ministério dos Negócios Estrangeiros, um
grupo de trabalho preparatório da futura Comissão Nacional da UNESCO.
14
Competia-
lhe, entre outras funções, estudar a experiência dos outros países e recolher a informação
necessária do nosso país “de modo a propor os moldes de constituição e funcionamento
da Comissão Nacional de UNESCO”, bem como funcionar como “canal de comunicação
entre a Missão Permanente de Portugal junto da UNESCO e o Ministério dos Negócios
Estrangeiros”. Para integrar o grupo de trabalho foram selecionadas personalidades de
grande relevo: Adérito Seda Nunes (investigação), Teresa Santa Clara Gomes
(educação), Manuel Fernandes Tomás (tecnologia), João Martins Pereira (tecnologia),
Ana Hidalgo Barata (MNE) e, para apoio logístico dos serviços ministeriais em Portugal,
Magalhães Cruz.
De acordo com o Ministério dos Negócios Estrangeiros Português, os principais objetivos
da Missão Permanente consistiam em promover o contacto de Portugal com outras
culturas; contribuir para a paz internacional; assegurar o preenchimento da quota de
funcionários da UNESCO atribuída ao país, mediante a seleção dos mais competentes; e,
num plano imediato, garantir a participação em todas as reuniões organizadas UNESCO,
bem como nas Conferências Gerais da organização.
15
1976: a 19ª Conferência Geral da UNESCO em Nairobi
A 19.ª Conferência Geral da UNESCO, realizada em Nairobi de 26 de outubro a 30 de
novembro de 1976, constituiu o primeiro grande desafio da Missão Portuguesa no seu
regresso à organização.
Como membros da Missão Permanente de Portugal, além da Embaixadora Maria de
Lourdes Pintasilgo, participaram Jorge Ritto e Luís Sousa Lobo; como membros do Grupo
de trabalho da UNESCO, Manuel Fernandes Tomás; José Carlos Ferreira de Almeida,
Teresa Santa Clara Gomes e José Manuel Prostes da Fonseca; como funcionários do MNE,
ligados às atividades da UNESCO, Nataniel Costa e Ana Maria Hidalgo Barata. Entre os
participantes estavam ainda nomes como o perito no domínio da educação, Alberto de
Melo e em substituição do Ministro da Educação, o Secretário de Estado da Investigação
Científica, o Professor José Tiago de Oliveira.
16
A 19.ª Conferência Geral ficou marcada pela discussão sobre a liberdade de imprensa,
centrando-se o debate numa declaração proposta pela União Soviética “sancionando o
controlo governamental sobre a imprensa”, e segundo a qual os governos deviam ser
“responsáveis pelo conteúdo dos meios de informação.”
17
A posição da delegação
soviética gerou grande controvérsia, com os delegados dos países ocidentais a afirmarem
que “os Estados deveriam proteger o direito de todos exprimirem franca e livremente as
suas opiniões”
18
e que a declaração proposta pela União Soviética “significava a aceitação
de uma ideologia da informação, diretamente contrária, aos princípios estabelecidos na
14
Cuja criação oficial foi em julho de 1979 pelo Decreto-Lei Nº218/79.
15
AHD, CLT, Maço 414, Missão Permanente junto da UNESCO, sem data.
16
AHD, CLT, Maço 434, Despacho de Ernesto de Melo Antunes, 6 de julho de 1976.
17
O Dia, 4 de novembro de 1976, p.8.
18
Jornal Novo, 10 de novembro de 1976, p.8.
JANUS.NET, e-journal of International Relations
e-ISSN: 1647-7251
VOL. 16, Nº. 2
Novembro 2025-abril 2026, pp. 272-289
Mulheres em Organizações Internacionais: O Caso de Maria de Lourdes Pintasilgo
na UNESCO (1975 -1979)
Raquel Valente dos Santos
281
Declaração Universal dos Diretos Humanos”.
19
Face à contestação dos restantes países,
o delegado soviético apressou-se a esclarecer que a proposta se destinava apenas “a
sublinhar a responsabilidade dos Estados pelos seus próprios órgãos de comunicação
social controlados oficialmente.”
20
Após longa discussão, a 19.ª Conferência Geral adotou uma resolução que previa o
reequilíbrio da informação e o financiamento para a coordenação de programas na área
da comunicação social. A delegação portuguesa manifestou-se totalmente desfavorável
a esta resolução. No plenário da UNESCO, realizado a 29 de novembro de 1976, Maria
de Lourdes Pintassilgo afirmou que se tratava de uma resolução com um discurso
“moralizante” para os profissionais de comunicação social, desprovida de qualquer valor
cultural, uma vez que “os problemas de fundo trazidos pelos mass media à sociedade
contemporânea não eram adequadamente abordados”. Acrescentou ainda que a
declaração lhe causou, inclusive, uma certa “preocupação e perplexidade”. Durante a sua
intervenção, a embaixadora salientou que os Estados-membros se tinham comprometido
“a ajudar os meios de comunicação a desempenhar o seu papel, no sentido de reforçar
a paz e a compreensão internacional”, sublinhando, contudo, a necessidade de realizar-
se um estudo mais alargado sobre a questão, “que tenha em conta o espetacular
aumento do volume das operações de mass media no mundo de hoje.” Para Maria de
Lourdes Pintasilgo, os meios de comunicação representavam um novo poder “que se
introduz na nossa vida diária e dá forma às nossas opiniões”, lamentando, por essa razão,
que pouco tivesse sido feito para os analisar forma ampla e verdadeiramente científica.
A embaixadora questionava-se se a UNESCO poderia aprovar uma declaração sobre o
papel dos meios de comunicação social antes de se realizar e concluir um estudo mais
aprofundado, ignorando a complexidade subjacente à natureza e à função dos mesmos.
Ao longo do seu discurso, Maria de Lourdes Pintasilgo defendeu, fortemente, que a
UNESCO deveria ter a iniciativa de conduzir um estudo sobre o poder dos meios de
comunicação, contribuindo para uma melhor compreensão dos mesmos e do papel que
lhes cabe. A embaixadora apresentou, inclusive, alguns exemplos significativos: seriam
inofensivos para a paz os meios de comunicação que dão prioridade “à capacidade de ter
e possuir sobre a de ser e viver”; se seriam inofensivos para a compreensão
internacional, os meios de comunicação que, mantém “uma visão provinciana, senão
nacionalista”; e se seriam inofensivos para a eliminação do racismo, os meios de
comunicação que, “persistem em ignorar os grupos marginais, os membros sem voz
dessas sociedades?”
21
.
Na 19.ª Conferência Geral foi ainda debatida a reivindicação dos países do Hemisfério
Sul sobre a necessidade de se estabelecerem infraestruturas de comunicação nos seus
territórios, de forma a que “a informação não fosse apenas veiculada pelas grandes
agências internacionais, todas elas situadas no Hemisfério Norte”.
22
A este propósito,
Maria de Lourdes Pintassilgo defendeu, desde o início, que “para a salvaguardada da
circulação de uma informação correta e livre, o problema fundamental a resolver era o
da injustiça das relações entre o Norte e o Sul.” Para a embaixadora, a discussão e a
19
O Dia, 29 de outubro de 1976, p.13.
20
A Capital, 6 de novembro de 1976, p.16.
21
AMLP, Pasta 0229.041, Ata da 30ª Sessão plenária, 29 de novembro de 1976. Intervenção de Maria de
Lourdes Pintasilgo. Anexo III 19 C/ VR.36, pp. 36-39.
22
Diário de Notícias, 27 de novembro de 1976, p.7.
JANUS.NET, e-journal of International Relations
e-ISSN: 1647-7251
VOL. 16, Nº. 2
Novembro 2025-abril 2026, pp. 272-289
Mulheres em Organizações Internacionais: O Caso de Maria de Lourdes Pintasilgo
na UNESCO (1975 -1979)
Raquel Valente dos Santos
282
adoção de uma declaração sobre o papel dos meios de comunicação deveriam ser adiadas
até à realização da próxima Conferência Geral, e deveriam ser tomadas as medidas
necessárias para se proceder a uma análise mais atualizada dos meios de comunicação.
A intervenção de Maria de Lurdes Pintassilgo no plenário da UNESCO revelou-se tão
contributiva para o debate que várias delegações governamentais se pronunciaram para
apoiar as críticas e as sugestões apresentadas por Portugal
23
.
Por fim, a 19.ª Conferência Geral da UNESCO deu também especial atenção às questões
africanas, aprovando uma resolução que condenava o colonialismo e o racismo,
defendendo a luta do povo africano “para recuperar a sua identidade, soberania e
independência”.
24
Em relação a esta resolução,
25
a 22 novembro de 1976, Maria de
Lourdes Pintassilgo salientou que, o ponto-chave, residia na confirmação “da existência
de um governo autónomo e independente em Angola e no exercício real da soberania
sobre o território”, observação que foi sublinhada por todos os intervenientes.
De notar que, dez dias antes do encerramento da Conferência Geral, foram realizadas
eleições para o Conselho Executivo da UNESCO. Surpreendentemente, Portugal
conquistou um lugar: Maria de Lourdes Pintasilgo obteve o maior número de votos a
eleger no Grupo Europeu, com um total de 122 votos, sendo eleita membro do Conselho
Executivo da UNESCO
26
.
1977: A visita do Diretor Geral da UNESCO a Portugal
Os laços entre Portugal e a UNESCO fortaleceram-se, progressivamente, sendo exemplo
dessa aproximação a visita, em agosto de 1977, do Diretor-Geral da organização,
Amadou Mahtar M´Bow, a Portugal.
A 8 de julho de 1977, o Ministério dos Negócios Estrangeiros Português foi informado por
Maria de Lourdes Pintassilgo de que foi sugerida a possibilidade de se realizar uma visita
do Diretor-Geral da UNESCO a Lisboa. A embaixadora sublinhava o interesse político
desta visita, recordando que o Diretor Geral exprimia, repetidamente, “grande interesse
e apoio a Portugal”
27
.
A Missão Permanente de Portugal junto da UNESCO sugeriu que a visita tivesse lugar a
7 de agosto, a convite do Governo português e, consequentemente, financiada por
Portugal, que assumiria todas as despesas de estadia. Solicitou-se, assim, autorização
junto do MNE para cobrir os custos decorrentes da estadia e do programa da visita do
Diretor-Geral da UNESCO, incluindo: marcação de uma suíte no Hotel Ritz;
disponibilização de um automóvel com condutor, ao serviço do Diretor-Geral;
organização de um jantar oferecido pelo Primeiro-Ministro, de caráter privado; e a
preparação de um almoço oficial.
23
AMLP, Pasta 0229.041, Ata da 30ª Sessão plenária de 29 DE novembro de1976. Intervenção de maria ed
Lourdes Pintasilgo. Anexo III 19 C/ VR.36, p.39.
24
O Dia, 1 de dezembro de 1976, p.5.
25
Uma das grandes novidades foi a atribuição, por proposta do Conselho Executivo da UNESCO, do estatuto
de observador a S. Tomé e Príncipe, Moçambique e Cabo Verde e a possibilidade de adesão como Estado-
membro de Angola.
26
O Século, 23 de novembro de 1976, p.13.
27
AHD, CLT, Maço 473, Telegrama de Maria de Lourdes Pintasilgo, 8 de julho de 1977.
JANUS.NET, e-journal of International Relations
e-ISSN: 1647-7251
VOL. 16, Nº. 2
Novembro 2025-abril 2026, pp. 272-289
Mulheres em Organizações Internacionais: O Caso de Maria de Lourdes Pintasilgo
na UNESCO (1975 -1979)
Raquel Valente dos Santos
283
Maria de Lourdes Pintasilgo propôs ainda a marcação de encontros com o Presidente da
República, o Primeiro-Ministro e o Ministro dos Negócios Estrangeiros (Santos, 2022, pp.
275).
Amadou Mahtar M´Bow chegou a Lisboa a 3 de agosto de 1977, sendo recebido por Maria
de Lourdes Pintasilgo e por um representante do MNE. Questionado pelos jornalistas,
manifestou a sua satisfação pelo convite oficial do Governo português para visitar o país
e “travar conversações sobre as relações de cooperação atualmente existentes” com a
UNESCO.
28
Já a embaixadora portuguesa sublinhou que a visita do Diretor-Geral
constituía “o reconhecimento, por parte da UNESCO, da transformação radical de
Portugal e da vontade inequívoca que houve para proceder à descolonização.”
29
A
presença do Diretor-Geral da UNESCO a Portugal, representava, ainda, “uma garantia”
do papel que a organização desempenharia na promoção de “um novo desenvolvimento
da educação, ciência e cultura em Portugal.”
30
A visita a Lisboa revelou-se um êxito, evidenciado pela análise de um conjunto de cartas
enviadas por Amadou Mahtar M´Bow às diversas personalidades com quem se reuniu. A
António Ramalho Eanes, o Diretor Geral agradeceu a calorosa receção durante a sua
visita ao país, sublinhado que a sua deslocação a Lisboa “permitiu reforçar a sua
convicção de que os laços de cooperação existentes entre Portugal e a UNESCO apenas
tornarão o futuro ainda mais apertado.” A Mário Soares, manifestou particular satisfação
“pela ampla troca de opiniões sobre os principais aspetos da cooperação” e assegurou
que os efeitos desta colaboração seriam “de grande valor para a comunidade
internacional.” Ao Secretário de Estado e da Investigação Científica, Tiago de Oliveira,
M´Bow felicitou-o pela sessão de trabalho organizada por si e pelos seus colaboradores,
mencionando que a cooperação já estabelecida entre Portugal e a UNESCO poderia ser
amplamente desenvolvida, afirmando-lhe: “farei tudo em meu poder para agir nessa
direção”. Por fim, numa carta dirigida a Maria de Lurdes Pintassilgo, Amadou Mahtar
M´Bow agradeceu a estadia em Portugal e referiu que as conversações que manteve
com as altas personalidades que conheceu em Lisboa, constituíram “encorajamento e
estimulação”, convencendo-o de que a cooperação entre Portugal e a UNESCO
desenvolvia-se da forma mais “harmoniosa” e que os seus efeitos “serão benéficos para
toda a comunidade internacional.”
31
A visita permitiu importantes progressos em diversos
domínios, incluindo a política educativa, a área científica e a implementação de projetos
culturais (Santos, 2021, pp. 280-284).
1978: A 20ª Conferência Geral em Paris
O ano de 1978 ficou marcado pela realização da 20.ª Conferência Geral da UNESCO, em
Paris. A 31 de julho de 1978, Maria de Lourdes Pintassilgo remeteu uma carta ao Ministro
dos Negócios Estrangeiros, Victor de Sá Machado, expressando a sua preocupação em
apresentar, com a maior brevidade, a proposta reativa à composição da delegação
28
AHD, CLT, Maço 474, Apontamento do MNE, 8 de agosto de 1977.
29
A Capital, 8 de agosto de 1977, p. 20.
30
AHD, CLT, Maço 474, Apontamento do MNE, sem data.
31
AHD, CLT, Maço 474, Correspondência envia por Amadou Mahtar M´Bow, 1977.
JANUS.NET, e-journal of International Relations
e-ISSN: 1647-7251
VOL. 16, Nº. 2
Novembro 2025-abril 2026, pp. 272-289
Mulheres em Organizações Internacionais: O Caso de Maria de Lourdes Pintasilgo
na UNESCO (1975 -1979)
Raquel Valente dos Santos
284
portuguesa para a 20.ª Conferência Geral, com início previsto para 24 de outubro de
1978.
A delegação portuguesa à 20.ª Conferência Geral era composto pelos membros da
Delegação Permanente de Portugal junto da UNESCO: a Embaixadora Maria de Lourdes
Pintassilgo, o Conselheiro Científico, Luís Sousa Lobo, o Conselheiro cultural, Alberto Melo
e o Conselheiro de Carreira, Jorge Ritto. Participou ainda na conferência o representante
da Secretaria de Estado, Carlos David Calder.
32
Na qualidade de Estado-membro, Portugal participou ativamente, tal como sucedeu em
Nairobi, nos vários trabalhos da Conferência-Geral, na qual foram discutidos dois
documentos fundamentais: um novo projeto de declaração sobre os meios de
comunicação e o relatório da Comissão McBride.
Sobre o assunto, Maria de Lourdes Pintasilgo afirmou que a delegação portuguesa não
ficou satisfeita com o projeto de declaração sobre os meios de comunicação proposto
pela UNESCO, justificando a sua posição por considerar o texto “muito moralista e
limitado”, dirigindo sobretudo a incentivar os órgãos de comunicação social a contribuir
para a paz internacional, evitando “propaganda belicista, racista ou do “apartheid”, mas
não sem insistir “suficientemente sobre problemáticas mais complexas.” No entanto, e
apesar de todas as suas limitações, Maria de Lourdes Pintasilgo reconhecia que a
declaração representou “avanços para as aspirações dos países mais pobres” e constituiu
um esforço da UNESCO no sentido de elaborar uma resolução que lhes pudesse ser útil.
33
A resolução acabou por ser aprovada por 144 países, entre os quais Portugal.
O texto da declaração sobre os meios de comunicação social previa o “estabelecimento
de um novo equilíbrio e reciprocidade na circulação da informação.” A este propósito,
Maria de Lourdes Pintassilgo defendeu que o desequilíbrio informativo tinha de ser
corrigido, mediante “uma redistribuição de bens e não considerando o problema como
sendo exclusivo dos países do Terceiro Mundo.” Nas palavras da embaixadora
portuguesa, os órgãos de comunicação social “criam imagens, estereótipos, gostos,
modelos de sociedade, que influem no interior de todas as sociedades, sejam elas quais
forem”
34
. A 14 de novembro de 1978, durante a sua intervenção na UNESCO, Maria de
Lourdes Pintassilgo destacou que os meios de comunicação emergiriam como um novo
poder nas sociedades, transmitindo “modelos sociais, estilos de vida, valores e
comportamentos”, impondo-se, muitas vezes, à identidade cultural preexistente.
No que respeita ao Relatório McBride, redigido por uma comissão presidida pelo irlandês
Seán McBride, tratava-se de um documento que analisava os problemas da comunicação
a nível mundial, identificando, entre outros problemas, o acesso desigual à informação e
à comunicação, e constatado o desequilíbrio dos fluxos de informação entre os países em
desenvolvimento. Maria de Lourdes Pintasilgo considerou o relatório um documento de
“qualidade excecional”, que abordava e retratava os problemas dos meios de
comunicação, bem como defendia as condições para uma nova ordem internacional de
informação. Na sua perspetiva, esta nova ordem de comunicação conduziria a uma
melhor distribuição de recursos e à denúncia do notável desequilíbrio “das possibilidades
32
AHD, CLT, Maço 435, Telegrama de Carlos Jorge Mendes Correia Gago, 23 de outubro de 1978.
33
Expresso, 18 de novembro de 1978, p.8.
34
O Jornal, 30 de novembro de 1978, p.7.
JANUS.NET, e-journal of International Relations
e-ISSN: 1647-7251
VOL. 16, Nº. 2
Novembro 2025-abril 2026, pp. 272-289
Mulheres em Organizações Internacionais: O Caso de Maria de Lourdes Pintasilgo
na UNESCO (1975 -1979)
Raquel Valente dos Santos
285
de comunicação de um pequeno grupo de países.” Segundo a embaixadora portuguesa,
o Relatório McBride reconhecia, que "a comunicação é um problema, em primeiro lugar
porque é tardio, nos seus princípios, nos seus parâmetros e no seu desenvolvimento, em
comparação com as mudanças que são as aspirações que se manifestam na vida política
e socioeconómica de muitos países, bem como no nível internacional.” Na sua visão, o
direito de comunicar e de se expressar, livremente, era um ideal democrático ainda por
ser alcançado, devendo ser complementado “pela afirmação de um princípio de justiça
capaz de superar a situação em que uma minoria é a única capaz de informar, emitir e
expressar enquanto a maioria permanece recetora passiva.” A embaixadora portuguesa
considerava ser necessária uma classe profissional que estivesse ao serviço da sociedade
e não de grupos favorecidos, e que essa mesma classe só podia existir se pudesse
funcionar “como mecanismo de feedback em relação a qualquer desconforto ou aspiração
do tecido social.” Maria de Lourdes Pintasilgo finalizou a sua intervenção afirmando, que
o Relatório McBride permitiu “conferir substância a uma nova ordem internacional de
informação”, e situou a UNESCO, numa das “suas dimensões fundamentais - ser um
lugar de encontro de culturas e pensamentos”
35
.
1978- 1979: português: língua de trabalho na UNESCO
Os anos de 1978 e 1979 foram marcados no que respeita às relações Portugal-UNESCO,
pela possibilidade de a língua portuguesa se tornar uma das línguas de trabalho da
organização.
A ausência da língua portuguesa na UNESCO era justificada por variadas razões. Antes
do 25 de abril, o isolamento internacional a que Portugal estava sujeito; já no período
democrático, a explicação residia no facto de a diplomacia portuguesa e as suas
delegações nas reuniões internacionais “não estarem sensibilizadas para o problema e
não terem compreendido a sua importância. Apesar de terem sido empreendidas algumas
iniciativas, tinham sempre caráter pontual e pouco coordenadas
36
.
A questão ganhou maior relevo em consequência de uma reunião da UNESCO realizada
na Fundação Gulbenkian, entre 4 a 13 de abril de 1978, sendo esta a primeira vez que a
organização promoveu uma iniciativa de caráter intergovernamental em Portugal, e
recorreu à utilização da língua portuguesa. Não só os discursos inaugurais, como toda a
documentação circulada e produzida no âmbito dessa reunião foi traduzida também em
português.
A realização da reunião em Portugal foi aproveitada para o desenvolvimento de uma
ofensiva pela promoção internacional da língua portuguesa: o Ministro dos Negócios
Estrangeiros deu instruções à missão diplomática junto da UNESCO para requerer a
admissão do português como língua oficial da organização. Acrescentava o Governo
português que a língua “é o veículo indispensável para a divulgação e valorização da
cultura que exprime”. Apesar da ambição portuguesa, entre os obstáculos à adoção do
português como língua oficial na UNESCO encontrava-se a oposição dos Estados que têm
35
AMLP, Pasta 0229.041, Intervention de Madame Pintasilgo, Comission IV. Point 12 (20C/94) Rapport
intérimaire de la Comission Internationale d`étude des problèms de la communication, Paris 14 novembre de
1978, pp. 60 – 65.
36
Diário de Notícias, 11 de maio de 1978, p.2.
JANUS.NET, e-journal of International Relations
e-ISSN: 1647-7251
VOL. 16, Nº. 2
Novembro 2025-abril 2026, pp. 272-289
Mulheres em Organizações Internacionais: O Caso de Maria de Lourdes Pintasilgo
na UNESCO (1975 -1979)
Raquel Valente dos Santos
286
uma maior contribuição, uma vez que no que respeita às implicações de natureza
financeira, “a comparticipação portuguesa em termos percentuais era de cerca de
0.19%”
37
.
Em nota publicada em 1979, Maria de Lourdes Pintasilgo explicou a sua posição referente
à questão, afirmando que os problemas levantados pela possibilidade da introdução do
português na UNESCO deviam ser considerados “no contexto mais vasto da introdução
de novas línguas nos organismos que constituem o sistema das Nações Unidas.” A
embaixadora portuguesa recordava que no Relatório 104 EX/SR.32, o Conselho Executivo
defendeu a implementação de uma seletividade tanto nos serviços de tradução de
documentos como nos serviços de interpretação disponíveis para conferências e
reuniões.
38
Maria de Lourdes Pintasilgo acrescentava que os serviços linguísticos
absorviam 11% do orçamento da UNESCO e mencionava a noção do “efeito
multiplicador” da introdução de uma nova língua: “como cada língua tem de ser traduzida
e interpretada para todas as outras e vice-versa o número de combinações linguísticas
aumenta consideravelmente com cada nova língua” .
A embaixadora portuguesa elucidava para o problema prático da interpretação
simultânea de uma língua menos divulgada, que por falta de intérpretes fluentes para
todas as outras línguas, são normalmente traduzidas para uma língua corrente (inglês
ou francês), a partir da qual os restantes efetuam a sua interpretação. Maria de Lourdes
mencionava que “todo o acréscimo significativo nos serviços linguísticos já existentes em
organismos das Nações Unidas, ameaçam impor à organização em questão uma carga
administrativa demasiado pesada e desviar recursos de utilizações mais produtivas.” A
embaixadora relembrou ainda, que tendo mencionado na UNESCO, a possibilidade da
língua portuguesa ter o estatuto de língua de trabalho, “devido ao número e a dispersão
geográfica dos que se exprimem em português,” foi indiretamente contestada por
diversas delegações que assinalaram que nem o número de pessoas que falam uma
língua, nem a variedade geográfica são argumentos válidos, dado que o que está em
causa é a “identidade cultural veiculada pela língua” e que essa pode corresponder a uma
pequena zona do mundo. Como seria esperado, outras delegações, originárias dos países
com quota mais elevada no orçamento, como o caso do Estados Unidos, Suíça, etc.,
declararam que não se justificariam as despesas e não estariam dispostos a contribuir.
Concluía Maria de Lourdes Pintassilgo, que a avaliação das possibilidades de introdução
do português deveria ser feita tendo em conta a situação no conjunto do sistema das
Nações Unidas e “não isoladamente num organismo que pode não ser o mais adequado
à situação conjuntural.” No entanto, existiam outras vias de entrada do português na
atividade dos organismos das Nações Unidas, de que era exemplo a introdução seletiva,
em que a língua é utilizada apenas em reuniões em determinadas áreas ou em
determinadas publicações, representando encargos administrativos e financeiros
menores que o estatuto de língua de trabalho da organização, e com um alcance e
difusão, certamente, mais amplos. Concluía Maria de Lourdes Pintassilgo, que o avanço
37
AMLP, Pasta 0102.026, Esclarecimento a Requerimento, 8 de março de 1979.
38
AMLP, Pasta 0102.014, Relatório 104 EX / SR 32 sobre as deliberações do Conselho Executivo da UNESCO
sobre o uso de novas línguas dentro dos organismos da ONU, p. 18.
JANUS.NET, e-journal of International Relations
e-ISSN: 1647-7251
VOL. 16, Nº. 2
Novembro 2025-abril 2026, pp. 272-289
Mulheres em Organizações Internacionais: O Caso de Maria de Lourdes Pintasilgo
na UNESCO (1975 -1979)
Raquel Valente dos Santos
287
na utilização do português na UNESCO dependia “ de uma ação cuidadosa e coordenada”
que, “tenha em conta a complexidade da situação e afine os obstáculos existentes”
39
.
A título de curiosidade, a língua portuguesa conseguiu afirmar-se nessa altura em
organismos internacionais importantes: nas reuniões dos órgãos diretores da
Organização Mundial da Propriedade Intelectual (OMPI), realizadas, de 25 de setembro
a 3 de outubro de 1979, a Assembleia Geral da Organização aprovou, por unanimidade,
o português como língua de trabalho, autorizando o seu Diretor-Geral, Arpad Bogsch, a
fornecer para esse objetivo a quantia de 90.000.00 francos suíços.
40
Pela primeira vez,
a língua portuguesa foi consagrada como língua de trabalho numa das agências
especializadas do sistema das Nações Unidas. As publicações sobre direito de autor e
sobre direitos de propriedade intelectual chegariam aos novos países africanos de
expressão portuguesa e também ao Brasil em português.
Conclusões
Ao longo do presente artigo avaliou-se o contributo de Maria de Lourdes Pintasilgo
durante o processo de restabelecimento de relações diplomáticas de Portugal com a
UNESCO, em resultado da saída da organização em 1972.
Com a Revolução de abril de 1974, o Ministério dos Negócios Estrangeiros tinha a difícil
tarefa de demonstrar à comunidade internacional que Portugal, contrariamente aos anos
de Salazar e Caetano, tornou-se num regime democrático, cuja participação em
organizações internacionais tornou-se um objetivo de enorme relevância, o que incluía,
colaborar ativamente com a ONU e com os organismos de si dependentes, como a
UNESCO, com os quais esteve três décadas em conflito, devido à sua política colonial.
Formalizado o processo de readmissão de Portugal na UNESCO, em setembro de 1974,
a escolha de Maria de Lourdes Pintasilgo para liderar a Missão de Portugal junto da
UNESCO, em Paris foi surpreendente. A delegação portuguesa não teve dificuldades em
comunicar com as restantes delegações dos países membros, com a Embaixadora Maria
de Lourdes Pintasilgo a desempenhar um papel bastante ativo em todos os fóruns da
organização, fazendo sugestões e criticas, inclusive, nos temas mais controversos, de
que são exemplo a questão da liberdade de imprensa, e o Relatório McBride, nas 19ª e
20ª Conferências Gerais da organização Destaca-se ainda a promoção da visita do
Diretor-Geral da organização a Portugal em 1977, da qual resultaram diversas
colaborações entre o governo português e a UNESCO, e financiamento para atividades
de relevo para a cultura e sociedade portuguesas.
O seu mandato foi suspenso, temporariamente, em 1979, aquando do seu afastamento
para desempenhar funções governativas, no cargo de Primeira-Ministra em Portugal,
num governo de iniciativa presidencial que durou apenas cinco meses (agosto de 1979 a
3 de janeiro de 1980).
O novo Governo eleito, a Aliança Democrática, impediram o seu regresso a Paris, não
autorizando o Ministério dos Negócios Estrangeiros, representando por Diogo Freitas do
39
AMLP, Pasta 0102.006, Nota de Maria de Lourdes Pintasilgo sobre a introdução de novas línguas na UNESCO,
1979, pp. 1-6).
40
A Tarde, 16 de outubro de 1979, p.4.
JANUS.NET, e-journal of International Relations
e-ISSN: 1647-7251
VOL. 16, Nº. 2
Novembro 2025-abril 2026, pp. 272-289
Mulheres em Organizações Internacionais: O Caso de Maria de Lourdes Pintasilgo
na UNESCO (1975 -1979)
Raquel Valente dos Santos
288
Amaral, que Maria de Lourdes Pintasilgo voltasse a desempenhar as funções na UNESCO
para as quais tinha sido nomeada, alegadamente, com base em questões de confiança
política, decorrentes de divergências ideológicas entre a embaixadora e o novo partido
no poder.
Referências
Antunes, José Freire (1985). Cartas particulares a Marcelo Caetano: 1968-1974, Vol. II,
Lisboa, Dom Quixote.
Beltrão, Luísa e Katton, Barry (2007). Uma História para o Futuro. Maria de Lourdes
Pintasilgo, Lisboa, Tribuna da História.
Bettencourt, Ana Maria e Pereira, Maria Margarida Silva (Coord.) (1995). “Maria de
Lourdes Pintasilgo”. In Mulheres Políticas: as suas causas. Lisboa, Quetzal, pp. 215-227.
Duedahl, Poul (2016), A History of UNESCO: Global Actions and Impacts, Nova Iorque,
Palgrave Macmillan.
Lacoste, Michel Conil (1993). Chronique D´Un Grand Dessein. UNESCO (1946-1993),
Paris, Editions UNESCO.
Oliveira, César (1996), Portugal dos quatro cantos do mundo à Europa. A Descolonização,
1974-1976, Lisboa, Cosmos.
Maurel, Chloé (2012) “L´’UNESCO entre européocentrisme et universalisme (1945-
1974)”, Les Cahiers Irice, n.° 9, pp. 61-72.
Maurel, Chloé (2010), “Le rêve d'un «gouvernement mondial» des années 1920 aux
années 1950. L’exemple de l'UNESCO”, Histoire Politique, n.° 10, pp. 1-20.
Maurel, Chloé (2010), Historie de l’UNESCO: les trente premières années :1945- 1974,
Paris, L’Harmattan.
Maurel, Chloé (2013), “L'action de l'UNESCO dans le domaine de la reconstruction ».
Histoire Politique, n.° 19, pp. 160-175.
Pintasilgo, Maria de Lourdes (1980), Sulcos do nosso querer comum. Recortes de
entrevistas concedidas durante o V Governo Constitucional, Porto, Afrontamento.
Reis, António (1994), Portugal, 20 Anos de Democracia, Lisboa, Círculo de Leitores.
Rodrigues, Luís Nuno (2006), “Da criação da UNESCO à adesão de Portugal (1946-
1965)”, Relações Internacionais, n.º 12, pp. 165-181.
Santos, Aurora Almada (2011), “A ONU e as resoluções da Assembleia Geral de
Dezembro de 1960”, Relações Internacionais, n.º 30, pp. 61-69.
Santos, Raquel Valente (2021) “Relações diplomáticas entre Portugal e a UNESCO. A
visita de Amadou-Matar M'Bow a Portugal em agosto de 1977”, Revista Portuguesa de
História, V. 52, pp. 263- 286.
Santos, Raquel Valente (2020), “Portugal in UNESCO: From leaving in 1972 to returning
as a member in 1974”, Portuguese Journal of Social Science, V. 20, pp. 87 – 105.
JANUS.NET, e-journal of International Relations
e-ISSN: 1647-7251
VOL. 16, Nº. 2
Novembro 2025-abril 2026, pp. 272-289
Mulheres em Organizações Internacionais: O Caso de Maria de Lourdes Pintasilgo
na UNESCO (1975 -1979)
Raquel Valente dos Santos
289
Silva, António E. Duarte “O Litígio entre Portugal e a ONU (1960-1974)”, Análise Social.
Vol. XXX, pp. 5-50. 1995.
Souza, Maria Reynolds de, (2013) “Maria de Lourdes Ruivo da Silva Matos Pintasilgo” in
Esteves; João; Castro, Zília Osório de (Dir.) Feminae. Dicionário Contemporâneo, Lisboa,
Comissão para a Cidadania e a Igualdade de Género, pp. 587-594.
Teixeira, Nuno Severiano (2000), “Portugal no mundo-século XX”, Janus- Anuário de
relações exteriores,pp.100-101.
Valderrama, Fernando (1995). A History of UNESCO. Paris, UNESCO.
OBSERVARE
Universidade Autónoma de Lisboa
e-ISSN: 1647-7251
VOL. 16, Nº. 2
November 2025-April 2026
290
BRICS VS. G7: A COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS OF ECONOMIC AND POLITICAL
EFFICIENCY IN SHAPING GLOBAL ORDER
PATKAR KALPESH DILIP
patkarkalpesh.dilip@christuniversity.in
He specializes in Political Science and International Relations. His expertise includes Indian and
Western Political Philosophy, Comparative Politics, and International Politics. He is currently
pursuing a Ph.D. focusing on the idea of Nyaya in the Shanti Parva of the Mahabharata (India).
He is an Assistant Professor at Christ (Deemed to be University), Lavasa Campus, Pune. Kalpesh
has previously taught at Fergusson College (A) and Modern College of Arts, Science & Commerce
(A), Pune. His research is published in UGC-CARE and SCOPUS-listed journals, focusing on topics
such as the National Education Policy 2020 and Indian Knowledge Systems. Kalpesh actively
contributes to curriculum development, faculty training, and workshops on legal research and
academic quality standards. He has qualified for UGC-NET JRF and Maharashtra SET.
https://orcid.org/0009-0005-3452-8414
Abstract
The global distribution of power is increasingly shaped by the competing influences of two
major blocs: BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa) and the G7 (Canada,
France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the United Kingdom, and the United States). This paper
investigates how BRICS and the G7 shape the emerging multipolar global order. Using
comparative analysis of key indicators: GDP, trade flows, investment patterns, diplomatic
engagement, and strategic alliances. The paper examines each bloc’s structure and internal
cohesion. The analysis underscores the G7's historical supremacy, which stems from its
economic strength and political unity, in contrast to BRICS’ rising role as a representative for
the Global South and a platform for alternative governance models. Important metrics include
trade flows, investment trends, diplomatic efforts, and strategic alliances. The research also
assesses the internal dynamics within each bloc, including challenges to cohesion and the
effectiveness of decision-making. By comparing the advantages and drawbacks of BRICS and
G7, this paper provides insights into their respective functions in a multipolar world order,
evaluating their ability to promote transformative global agendas. Lastly, the paper concludes
that both alliances embody divergent approaches to global governance, reflecting deeper
shifts in international collaboration, competition, and the balance of power.
Keywords
Power-Dynamics, Efficiency, Geopolitical, Comparison, Multipolar.
Resumo
A distribuição global do poder é cada vez mais moldada pelas influências concorrentes de dois
grandes blocos: os BRICS (Brasil, Rússia, Índia, China e África do Sul) e o G7 (Canadá, França,
Alemanha, Itália, Japão, Reino Unido e Estados Unidos). Este artigo analisa a forma como o
BRICS e o G7 moldam a ordem global multipolar emergente. Para tal, utiliza uma análise
comparativa de indicadores-chave, nomeadamente o PIB, os fluxos comerciais, os padrões de
investimento, o envolvimento diplomático e as alianças estratégicas. O artigo examina a
estrutura e a coesão interna de cada bloco. A análise sublinha a supremacia histórica do G7,
JANUS.NET, e-journal of International Relations
e-ISSN: 1647-7251
VOL. 16, Nº. 2
November 2025-April 2026, pp. 290-306
Brics vs. G7: A Comparative Analysis of Economic and Political Efficiency
in Shaping Global Order
Patkar Kalpesh Dilip
291
que decorre da sua força económica e unidade política, em contraste com o papel crescente
dos BRICS como representantes do Sul Global e plataforma para modelos alternativos de
governação. Entre os indicadores importantes estão os fluxos comerciais, as tendências de
investimento, os esforços diplomáticos e as alianças estratégicas. A pesquisa também avalia
a dinâmica interna de cada bloco, incluindo os desafios à coesão e a eficácia da tomada de
decisões. Ao comparar as vantagens e desvantagens dos BRICS e do G7, este artigo fornece
visões sobre as respetivas funções numa ordem mundial multipolar, avaliando a sua
capacidade de promover agendas globais transformadoras. Por fim, o artigo conclui que
ambas as alianças incorporam abordagens divergentes à governança global, refletindo
mudanças mais profundas na colaboração internacional, na concorrência e no equilíbrio de
poder.
Palavras-chave
Dinâmica de poder, Eficiência, Geopolítica, Comparação, Multipolar.
How to cite this article
Dilip, Patkar Kalpesh (2025). Brics vs. G7: A Comparative Analysis of Economic and Political
Efficiency in Shaping Global Order. Janus.net, e-journal of international relations. VOL. 16, Nº. 2,
November 2025-April 2026, pp. 290-306. DOI https://doi.org/10.26619/1647-7251.16.2.16
Article submitted on 1st February 2025 and accepted for publication on 31st May 2025.
JANUS.NET, e-journal of International Relations
e-ISSN: 1647-7251
VOL. 16, Nº. 2
November 2025-April 2026, pp. 290-306
Brics vs. G7: A Comparative Analysis of Economic and Political Efficiency
in Shaping Global Order
Patkar Kalpesh Dilip
292
BRICS VS. G7: A COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS OF ECONOMIC AND
POLITICAL EFFICIENCY IN SHAPING GLOBAL ORDER
PATKAR KALPESH DILIP
Introduction
In two influential corners of the globe, two blocs chart competing visions for global
governance. One, the G7, rooted in the legacy of post-war prosperity and Western liberal
order, gathers the world’s most industrialised nations - Canada, France, Germany, Italy,
Japan, the UK, and the USA. The other, BRICS, comprises Brazil, Russia, India, China,
and South Africa. It represents emerging powers once sidelined by colonialism and global
inequities, now advocating for a multipolar world.
Formed in the 1970s, the G7 has long dominated international financial systems,
promoting democratic governance and market liberalism. In contrast, BRICS, emerging
in the early 2000s, challenges this dominance by offering alternative frameworks through
institutions like the New Development Bank and emphasising equitable development and
regional partnerships. However, both blocs face internal and external challenges, ranging
from slowing economic growth in the G7 to political and ideological divergences within
BRICS.
As global power dynamics shift in the 21st century, understanding the strategic visions,
structural strengths, and limitations of these two groups becomes vital to analysing the
future of international cooperation and competition.
Research Objective, Scope, and Methodology
This research aims to conduct a comparative analysis of BRICS and G7. It focuses on
their economic and political efficiency in shaping the global order. It seeks to understand
how these two blocs influence the globe and to evaluate their effectiveness in addressing
major global challenges.
This study adopts a qualitative and interdisciplinary analytical methodology to conduct a
comparative analysis of BRICS and G7 in shaping the global order. The research primarily
relies on secondary data drawn from peer-reviewed academic literature, policy
documents and institutional reports from the IMF, World Bank, WTO, UN, etc. Coding
categories were developed iteratively to ensure that both convergences and divergences
in rhetoric and implementation strategies were captured effectively.
This research examines both the economic and political dimensions of BRICS and G7. On
the economic front. The study measures their contributions to global GDP, trade, financial
JANUS.NET, e-journal of International Relations
e-ISSN: 1647-7251
VOL. 16, Nº. 2
November 2025-April 2026, pp. 290-306
Brics vs. G7: A Comparative Analysis of Economic and Political Efficiency
in Shaping Global Order
Patkar Kalpesh Dilip
293
stability, and responses to major economic crises. The paper investigates their political
leadership roles in global governance institutions and diplomatic alliances. Additionally,
the research adopts an interdisciplinary perspective, exploring the impact of technology,
cultural values, historical legacies, etc.
The scope of the study is confined to evaluating these factors in the context of key global
events from the early 2000s to the present, including the 2008 financial crisis and the
COVID-19 pandemic. It doesn’t go deeply into bilateral relations or domestic policies
unless they have a direct bearing on global influence. These events serve as "critical
junctures" that tested the leadership and coordination capacities of both BRICS and G7,
respectively.
While other crises (e.g., the Russia-Ukraine war, the Eurozone crisis) could have been
included, these two events were selected because they involved direct engagement by
both blocs and offered sufficient data for comparative review across political and
economic dimensions.
The study remains cognizant of limitations inherent in case selection and includes
triangulation through cross-referencing other relevant global developments to validate
conclusions where appropriate.
Historical Perspective
Historical legacies often influence and interfere with current global perspectives. The G7
nations largely emerged from colonial powers with a legacy of industrial dominance and
global influence. These countries built their wealth and power through colonial trade
networks and resource exploitation, which continue to affect their leadership in
international institutions. For example, nations like the United Kingdom and France
leverage historical ties to maintain influence in former colonies through diplomatic and
economic partnerships.
In contrast, BRICS nations are shaped by histories of colonisation, semi-colonization, or
imperial domination. These experiences foster a collective memory of resistance to
foreign control and a strong emphasis on sovereignty and development. BRICS countries
advocate for decolonial frameworks in global governance, which prioritize equitable
representation and challenge Western-dominated institutions. Examples include South-
South cooperation initiatives, which seek to promote mutual development without
dependency on traditional powers, and calls for reform of the UN Security Council to
include voices from the Global South.
While the G7 often defends the stability of existing institutions, BRICS pushes for a
restructuring of global power to reflect the realities of a multipolar world. This divergence
shapes ongoing debates about justice, equity, and legitimacy in global decision-making
processes. The G7 and BRICS represent two discrete blocks. The formation of the G7 was
rooted in the need for cooperation among leading industrialised nations to stabilise the
global economy following the devastation of World War II. In contrast, BRICS emerged
in the early 21st century as a coalition of major emerging economies seeking to challenge
the existing Western-centric world order and provide a voice for developing nations.
JANUS.NET, e-journal of International Relations
e-ISSN: 1647-7251
VOL. 16, Nº. 2
November 2025-April 2026, pp. 290-306
Brics vs. G7: A Comparative Analysis of Economic and Political Efficiency
in Shaping Global Order
Patkar Kalpesh Dilip
294
The G7's historical evolution can be traced back to the 1970s when the world faced
multiple economic crises. It includes the collapse of the Bretton Woods system and the
oil shocks of the decade. Recognising the need for coordinated action, the leaders of six
major economies -USA, UK, Germany, Japan, France, and Italy - convened for
discussions on global economic stability. Canada joined shortly afterwards, forming the
Group of Seven (G7). The G7 became a platform for these countries to discuss and
coordinate policies on international trade, finance, and security, exerting significant
influence over global economic institutions such as the International Monetary Fund (IMF)
and the World Bank.
On the other hand, BRICS emerged as a response to the growing economic and political
influence of countries outside the traditional Western sphere. The term “BRIC” was first
coined by economist Jim O’Neill in 2001 to highlight the rising economic potential of
Brazil, Russia, India, and China. South Africa was added in 2010, completing the BRICS
grouping. Unlike the G7, which was primarily formed by developed economies, BRICS
consists of emerging economies from diverse regions. These nations recognised the need
to create an alternative framework for global cooperation, emphasising multipolarity,
development finance, etc. BRICS countries collectively account for a noteworthy portion
of the world’s population, GDP growth, and trade, positioning themselves as a
counterbalance to the G7's influence (Economist Intelligence Unit, 2021).
The structure and decision-making processes of the G7 and BRICS reflect their different
origins and objectives. The G7 operates as an informal forum with no permanent
secretariat or formal treaty. Decisions are typically reached through consensus. The
meetings focus on key global issues like economic policy, security, and climate change.
Despite its informal structure, the G7 has maintained significant influence through its
coordination with global institutions like the IMF, the World Bank, and the World Trade
Organization (WTO). However, critics argue that the G7's membership is limited and does
not reflect the diverse realities of the global economy.
In comparison, BRICS has sought to institutionalise its cooperation by establishing formal
structures, including the BRICS Summit and the New Development Bank (NDB).
Decision-making within BRICS is also based on consensus, but the bloc emphasises equal
partnership among its members, regardless of their differing economic sizes and political
systems. This approach highlights BRICS' commitment to promoting inclusivity and
reducing the dominance of any single nation within the group. However, the bloc faces
internal challenges, such as balancing the competing interests of its members, which
range from authoritarian to democratic governments and from resource-exporting to
technology-driven economies.
The objectives and missions of the G7 and BRICS further explain their differing priorities
in global governance. The G7's core mission has been to promote economic stability,
liberal democracy and the rule of law. Over the decades, the G7 has focused on
addressing global challenges such as financial crises, terrorism, and climate change. Its
influence extends to shaping global financial regulations, promoting free trade, and
providing development assistance to poorer nations.
JANUS.NET, e-journal of International Relations
e-ISSN: 1647-7251
VOL. 16, Nº. 2
November 2025-April 2026, pp. 290-306
Brics vs. G7: A Comparative Analysis of Economic and Political Efficiency
in Shaping Global Order
Patkar Kalpesh Dilip
295
Table 1. Detailed Timeline of G7 and BRICS Milestones
Year
Bloc
Milestone
1975
G7
G7 founded (originally G6) at Rambouillet Summit
1976
G7
Canada joins, making it G7
1997
G7/G8
Russia invited, becoming G8
2001
BRICS
BRIC term coined by Goldman Sachs economist Jim O’Neill
2006
BRICS
First formal BRIC foreign ministers' meeting
2008
BRICS
Global Financial Crisis; BRICS gains visibility
2009
BRICS
First BRIC Summit held in Yekaterinburg, Russia
2011
BRICS
South Africa joins; BRIC becomes BRICS
2014
BRICS
BRICS establishes the New Development Bank (NDB)
2014
G7
Russia suspended from G8 due to Crimea; G8 returns to G7
2015
G7
G7 commits to full decarbonization by 2100
2017
BRICS
BRICS Summit in Xiamen; Digital economy cooperation initiated
2020
Both
G7 and BRICS respond to COVID-19 crisis
2021
G7
G7 launches Build Back Better World (B3W) to rival BRI
2023
BRICS
BRICS expands, inviting six new countries (Argentina, Egypt, etc.)
Source: Authorship
BRICS, on the other hand, emphasises the importance of economic development, South-
South cooperation, and a more equitable global order. The bloc's mission is to foster
economic growth and infrastructure development in its member states and other
developing countries. BRICS aims to provide alternatives to financial assistance through
initiatives like the New Development Bank (NDB) and the Contingent Reserve
Arrangement (CRA). BRICS also advocates for reforms in global governance institutions
to provide further representation and voice to emerging economies.
The G7 and BRICS have evolved from different historical contexts to serve distinct
purposes in the global order. The G7, representing established industrial powers, focuses
on maintaining stability and leadership within a liberal international framework. BRICS,
representing a coalition of emerging economies, seeks to create a multipolar world that
promotes inclusive development and equitable governance. Despite their differences,
both blocs continue to play critical roles in shaping the economic and political landscape
of the 21st century.
Economic Perspectives: A Comparative Analysis
A] GDP & Global Trade:
BRICS and G7 have contrasting roles in shaping the global economy through their
contributions to global GDP and trade. BRICS, comprising major emerging markets, has
been a significant driver of global economic growth in recent years. Collectively, BRICS
nations contribute approximately $28 trillion to the global GDP (UNCTAD, 2022). It is
driven by rapid industrialisation, expanding consumer markets and infrastructural
development. Their economies, especially China and India, have experienced sustained
growth due to high investment rates and increasing integration into global supply chains.
JANUS.NET, e-journal of International Relations
e-ISSN: 1647-7251
VOL. 16, Nº. 2
November 2025-April 2026, pp. 290-306
Brics vs. G7: A Comparative Analysis of Economic and Political Efficiency
in Shaping Global Order
Patkar Kalpesh Dilip
296
Figure 1. Global Trade Contribution (in % terms)
Source: WB Report & UNCTAD
Conversely, the G7 nations collectively contribute around $40 trillion to global GDP
(World Bank, 2023). These economies include technological dominance, advanced
financial markets, and established infrastructure. Despite slower growth rates compared
to BRICS, G7 countries maintain leadership in global trade (Eichengreen, 2011: 58),
contributing about 31% of the total trade. Their strength lies in high-value exports,
technological innovation, and strong intellectual property rights frameworks.
In terms of trade, BRICS nations account for approximately 18% of global trade, with a
focus on commodities, manufacturing, and digital services. While BRICS drives the
growth of emerging markets, the G7 sustains global economic stability. G7 is able to do
it through financial leadership and technological innovation. This underscores the
complementary yet competitive roles of the two blocs.
B] Strategy and Policy Impact:
BRICS and G7 employ separate economic strategies that influence their global roles.
BRICS emphasises regional cooperation and the establishment of alternative financial
institutions, for instance, the New Development Bank (NDB). The NDB focuses on
infrastructure development and provides funding to reduce member nations' dependency
on Western-led institutions like the IMF and World Bank. This strategy enhances regional
economic integration and allows BRICS members to exercise greater autonomy in their
financial policies.
In contrast, the G7 relies on coordination through long-established global institutions
such as the IMF and the World Bank. These institutions play a pivotal role in maintaining
global financial stability. It offers crisis response mechanisms, development assistance,
and financial oversight. The G7's strategies prioritise economic resilience through policy
JANUS.NET, e-journal of International Relations
e-ISSN: 1647-7251
VOL. 16, Nº. 2
November 2025-April 2026, pp. 290-306
Brics vs. G7: A Comparative Analysis of Economic and Political Efficiency
in Shaping Global Order
Patkar Kalpesh Dilip
297
coordination, debt management and fiscal incentives during crises. It benefits both
developed and developing countries under its influence (Global Finance Magazine, 2022).
Figure 2. Major Economic Investments by BRICS & G7 (in Billion USD)
Source: IMF, World Bank, and NDB reports
In terms of investment, G7 countries have contributed approximately $400 billion to
global development through these institutions. This significantly beats and outpaces the
$100 billion investment managed by BRICS initiatives like the NDB. This highlights the
scale of G7’s financial capacity but also underscores BRICS' growing importance in
providing alternative funding sources to emerging economies.
Table 2. BRICS’ NDP vs G7’s Bretton Woods Institutions
Institution
BRICS New Development Bank
(NDB)
G7 Bretton Woods Institutions
(IMF & World Bank)
Purpose
Provide alternative financing for
infrastructure in emerging economies
and developed countries without
rigorous conditions.
Debt restructuring programs, financial
aid during global crises to both
developing and developed countries.
Challenges
Limited global reach
Potential challenges in funding and
governance coordination.
Perceived dominance by Western
nations.
Conditionalities impacting recipient
nations’ sovereignty (Austerity
Measures)
Source: Authorship
While the NDB seeks to address these criticisms by promoting equitable partnerships, it
faces challenges related to limited funding capacity and coordination among its diverse
member states. In contrast, the Bretton Woods Institutions maintain extensive global
JANUS.NET, e-journal of International Relations
e-ISSN: 1647-7251
VOL. 16, Nº. 2
November 2025-April 2026, pp. 290-306
Brics vs. G7: A Comparative Analysis of Economic and Political Efficiency
in Shaping Global Order
Patkar Kalpesh Dilip
298
reach but must address perceptions of Western bias and conditionality-driven policies.
Both models reflect competing visions of global economic governance.
C] Resilience & Response to Economic Crisis:
Both BRICS and G7 have demonstrated varying degrees of resilience during major global
crises, with their responses shaped by their respective economic priorities and
institutional strengths.
Table 3. BRICS vs G7 – Comparative responses to Global Crises
Global Crisis
BRICS
G7
Financial Crisis
(2008)
Expansion of trade agreements,
Financial support through NDB
Massive financial incentives,
Coordinated central bank
interventions
Oil Price Shock
(2014)
Economic diversification efforts,
Support for domestic industries
Support for global oil supply stability,
Cooperation with OPEC
COVID-19
Pandemic
(2019)
Regional aid packages,
Increased healthcare funding,
Debt relief proposals
Large-scale fiscal packages,
Global vaccine distribution programs
Ukraine
Conflict
(2022)
Neutral diplomatic stance,
Efforts to maintain commodity trade
flows
Sanctions on Russia,
Financial aid to Ukraine,
Defence spending increased
Source: Authorship
During the 2008 financial crisis, the G7 led global recovery efforts through large-scale
financial incentives and coordinated interventions by central banks. These measures
aimed to stabilise financial markets and restore economic confidence. BRICS nations,
less impacted due to their relatively low exposure to Western financial markets, focused
on expanding regional trade agreements and supporting growth through infrastructure
investments (BBC News, 2023).
In the COVID-19 pandemic, G7 countries implemented extensive fiscal packages and
organised global initiatives like the COVAX program to distribute vaccines. BRICS nations,
on the other hand, prioritised regional cooperation, providing healthcare funding and
proposing debt relief for developing nations. Despite resource limitations, BRICS
countries emphasised self-reliance and alternative supply chains to mitigate the crisis's
economic impact.
Other crucial crises, such as the 2014 oil price shock and the Ukraine conflict in 2022,
further highlight differences in strategies. BRICS emphasises economic diversification
and maintaining commodity trade flows. In contrast, the G7 implemented policies like
sanctions and increased defence spending (Reuters, 2022). The comparison underscores
how G7 focuses on financial stability and global leadership, while BRICS emphasises
regional solidarity and alternative development strategies.
JANUS.NET, e-journal of International Relations
e-ISSN: 1647-7251
VOL. 16, Nº. 2
November 2025-April 2026, pp. 290-306
Brics vs. G7: A Comparative Analysis of Economic and Political Efficiency
in Shaping Global Order
Patkar Kalpesh Dilip
299
D] Economic disparities:
Both BRICS and G7 nations face substantial internal challenges stemming from economic
disparities and inequalities.
In BRICS, income inequality is a persistent concern, mainly in Brazil and South Africa,
where large segments of the population remain excluded from economic growth.
Additionally, BRICS nations struggle with uneven development levels; for instance, India
has significant rural poverty despite high economic growth, while Russia faces economic
volatility due to dependency on oil exports (Leininger, 2018: 126).
The G7, while generally wealthier, also deals with structural issues like ageing
populations, mainly in Japan and Italy. It put tremendous economic pressure on
healthcare and pension systems. Economic stagnation in parts of Europe and the United
States has contributed to rising inequality and social unrest. These nations also face
challenges related to wealth concentration and limited upward mobility in lower-income
groups. Both blocs are implementing strategies to address these disparities
(Chossudovsky, 2003: 62).
BRICS has invested in infrastructure and education to promote inclusive growth, while
the G7 emphasises social safety nets, healthcare reform, and job creation. However, the
effectiveness of these measures varies due to political and institutional differences. It
means the complexity of achieving equitable development in both emerging and
developed economies.
E] Technology and Digital Economy:
Technological innovation and the digital economy are crucial drivers of growth and
influence for both BRICS and G7 nations. But their focus areas and strategies differ. G7
countries lead in advanced research and high-tech industries, with a strong emphasis on
artificial intelligence (AI), data privacy and global digital governance. The United States
and Japan, for instance, are pioneers in AI research, while the European Union has
established stringent regulations on data protection through the General Data Protection
Regulation (GDPR) (Matthews, 2020). These countries dominate global markets for high-
tech products and services, shaping digital norms and standards worldwide.
In contrast, BRICS nations are focusing on expanding digital infrastructure and
leveraging technology for socio-economic development. China has emerged as a leader
in AI with platforms like Deep Seek and Fintech with platforms like Alipay, WeChat Pay
etc., revolutionizing digital payments (Brooks, 2021). India has developed one of the
world's largest digital payment ecosystems through initiatives such as the Unified
Payments Interface (UPI). UPI has enhanced financial inclusion and supports economic
growth in third world countries at a phenomenal level. These innovations have helped
BRICS countries address challenges such as limited banking access and digital inequality
(OECD Observer, 2019).
While the G7 emphasizes maintaining leadership through technological exports and
global standards, BRICS is creating alternative digital frameworks that cater to the needs
of developing economies.
JANUS.NET, e-journal of International Relations
e-ISSN: 1647-7251
VOL. 16, Nº. 2
November 2025-April 2026, pp. 290-306
Brics vs. G7: A Comparative Analysis of Economic and Political Efficiency
in Shaping Global Order
Patkar Kalpesh Dilip
300
Political Perspectives: A Comparative Analysis
A] Leadership in International Governance and Multilateral Institutes:
BRICS and G7 have discrete approaches to leadership and influence in major
international governance institutions like the UN, WTO, IMF and WHO.
Table 4. BRICS vs G7 – Comparison of Influences in Multilateral Organizations
Organisation
BRICS Influence
G7 Influence
United Nations
(UN)
Push for reform of Security Council to
increase representation for emerging
economies.
Dominant influence in decision-
making and peacekeeping
operations
World Trade
Organization
(WTO)
Advocacy for fairer trade rules and
support for developing nations
Leadership in setting trade policies
and dispute-resolution mechanisms
International
Monetary Fund
(IMF)
Establishment of New Development
Bank as an alternative financial
institution
Control of financial policy
frameworks and loan conditions
World Health
Organization
(WHO)
Support for global health initiatives
through regional collaborations
Major contributors to global health
funding and pandemic response
strategies
Source: Autorship
BRICS nations advocate for reforms to increase representation and fairness for emerging
economies. For example, they have called for restructuring the UN Security Council to
include permanent seats for countries from the Global South. In the WTO, BRICS
members push for equitable trade policies that protect the interests of developing
nations. BRICS perspective challenges the dominance of Western economies (Dupont,
2020: 47) & (Thakur, 2016: 22).
Conversely, the G7 exerts significant control over global governance structures. In the
UN, G7 nations are key players in peacekeeping operations and international security
initiatives. The G7 also leads in setting global financial frameworks through the IMF. They
influence loan conditions and policy recommendations. Additionally, the G7's role in the
WTO involves shaping trade rules and resolving disputes to maintain economic stability
(Allison, 2017: 80).
Both blocs are active in global health governance, with the G7 contributing large-scale
funding to initiatives like pandemic preparedness. BRICS, on the other hand, emphasises
regional health partnerships and alternative funding mechanisms. The ongoing
competition between the two blocs shapes global norms and decision-making processes
in multilateral organisations.
B] Soft Power, Alliances and Diplomacy:
BRICS and G7 leverage unique diplomatic alliances and soft power strategies to expand
their global influence. BRICS emphasises South-South cooperation. It supports the
solidarity among developing nations. BRICS members frequently advocate for non-
Western narratives, challenging the dominance of the Western-led liberal order. For
JANUS.NET, e-journal of International Relations
e-ISSN: 1647-7251
VOL. 16, Nº. 2
November 2025-April 2026, pp. 290-306
Brics vs. G7: A Comparative Analysis of Economic and Political Efficiency
in Shaping Global Order
Patkar Kalpesh Dilip
301
instance, partnerships with African and Latin American countries and China's Belt and
Road Initiative. It seeks to enhance global infrastructure connectivity. Additionally, BRICS
nations promote cultural exchange and investment in developing regions. BRICS
emphasises respect for national sovereignty and non-interference in domestic affairs
(Smith, 2018: A4).
On the other hand, the G7 trusts a well-established network of strategic alliances, for
instance, NATO (North Atlantic Treaty Organisation) to maintain global security and
promote the liberal democratic order. G7 supports the Marshall Plan, which helped rebuild
Europe after World War II and continues to lead in international aid programs. The G7
also wields significant soft power through its dominance in global media, higher
education, and arts, reinforcing the appeal of Western values and governance models.
C] Approach towards Global Challenges:
BRICS and G7 vary in their approaches to addressing global challenges such as climate
change, cybersecurity, human rights, etc.
Table 5. BRICS vs G7 – Comparative Approaches to Global Challenges
Global
Challenge
BRICS Approach
G7 Approach
Climate Change
Support for differentiated
responsibilities, emphasis on
development-focused green policies
Leading global climate agreements
(e.g., Paris Agreement) focus on
carbon reduction targets.
Cybersecurity
Promotion of digital sovereignty, focus
on national cybersecurity measures
International cooperation on
cybersecurity standards, emphasis on
collective defence
Human Rights
Emphasis on non-interference in
domestic affairs, advocating for socio-
economic rights & human rights
Promotion of liberal democratic
values, emphasis on political and civil
rights
Source: Authorship
Environmental sustainability is a critical priority for both BRICS and G7. It is one the
convergence where a majority of them agree with future sustainability goal. It is only the
process that creates a stiff objection. Both BRICS and G7 are contributing to and
strategizing for the achievement of Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). The G7 takes
a leading role in global climate initiatives, emphasising Carbon Neutrality and renewable
energy transitions. The European Union's Green Deal and the United States'
recommitment to the Paris Agreement demonstrate these efforts. Investments in Wind,
Solar and Hydrogen energy aim to reduce the carbon footprint of G7 economies. It is
easier said than done because industrial legacies face challenges in achieving complete
carbon neutrality (Smith, 2018: A4).
BRICS nations, however, must balance rapid economic growth with environmental
sustainability. These countries emphasise climate justice, advocating that developed
nations bear greater responsibility for global emissions reductions. China leads the world
in solar energy capacity, while India’s National Solar Mission has significantly expanded
access to renewable energy. Brazil faces the dual challenge of economic development
JANUS.NET, e-journal of International Relations
e-ISSN: 1647-7251
VOL. 16, Nº. 2
November 2025-April 2026, pp. 290-306
Brics vs. G7: A Comparative Analysis of Economic and Political Efficiency
in Shaping Global Order
Patkar Kalpesh Dilip
302
and conserving the Amazon rainforest, which is crucial for global carbon sequestration
(Climate Policy Journal, 2021).
G7 countries grapple with industrial emissions and political resistance to strict
environmental policies, while BRICS nations contend with developmental priorities and
dependence on fossil fuels. Despite these hurdles, both blocs invest in green
technologies, signalling a global shift towards sustainable development pathways. Yet,
differences are there.
BRICS nations emphasise differentiated responsibilities in climate policy. They claim that
developed countries should bear a larger share of the burden. Their strategies focus on
balancing economic development with green policies. For instance, the BRICS Climate
Action Plan – A sustainable infrastructure plan in developing regions. BRICS also raises
partnerships with the Global South to share green technologies and investments.
Nevertheless, the G7 plays a leading role in global climate agreements like the Paris
Agreement. It supports rigorous & stringent carbon reduction targets and investments in
renewable energy. The G7’s approach emphasises global cooperation on climate issues,
with significant funding for climate adaptation and technology transfers to developing
countries.
Regarding cybersecurity, BRICS promotes digital sovereignty and national cybersecurity
measures. It battles with the efforts to impose global regulations they perceive as biased
towards Western interests. Meanwhile, G7 nations prioritise international cooperation and
collective defence against cyber threats, with frameworks on transparency and standard
cybersecurity protocols. (Lee, 2024: 60)
In human rights, BRICS advocates for non-interference, emphasising socio-economic
rights and national development. Conversely, the G7 stresses the protection of political
and civil liberties. They often criticise authoritarian governance models.
D] Response to Geopolitical Tensions:
BRICS and the G7 response reflect their contrasting ideologies and strategic priorities.
The G7 aligns closely with NATO and Western democratic values. G7 often uses military
and economic alliances to enforce global norms. A notable example is the G7's unified
response to the Russia-Ukraine conflict. It involved imposing severe sanctions on Russia
and providing military support to Ukraine. G7 remains active in the Indo-Pacific region,
countering China's influence by strengthening defence partnerships with Japan and
Australia. This reinforces commitment of G7 to a Western-led global order but also
intensifies geopolitical rivalries.
In contrast, BRICS underlines a counter-hegemonic stance, advocating for a multipolar
world where no single bloc dominates. BRICS nations often criticize Western interventions
and advocate for respecting national sovereignty. For example, BRICS countries have
expressed discontent with unilateral sanctions, arguing that such measures undermine
the International Law. Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) demonstrate the BRICS'
commitment to fostering regional stability and security cooperation (O'Brien, 2010: 51),
especially in Asia. Furthermore, BRICS supports peacebuilding and development projects
in Africa, giving an alternative to Western-led military and economic interventions.
JANUS.NET, e-journal of International Relations
e-ISSN: 1647-7251
VOL. 16, Nº. 2
November 2025-April 2026, pp. 290-306
Brics vs. G7: A Comparative Analysis of Economic and Political Efficiency
in Shaping Global Order
Patkar Kalpesh Dilip
303
BRICS & G7 are deeply entangled in areas of global tension. For the G7, key challenges
include managing strained relations with Russia and China, notably over trade, human
rights, and security in the Indo-Pacific. For BRICS, tensions arise from criticism of
Western interventionism and the need to maintain solidarity among members with
differing geopolitical interests.
E] Political Sociology Dimension:
The G7 is rooted in cultural values that emphasise individualism, liberal democracy, and
human rights. These values are reflected in policies that promote free markets and civil
liberties. For instance, the USA’s healthcare reforms, the EU's privacy laws, etc. It
prioritises individual rights and market competitiveness. These cultural underpinnings
also influence the G7's efforts to promote Western governance models through
international institutions like the IMF and WTO.
BRICS, on the other hand, underlines collectivism and national sovereignty. These
nations often advocate for alternative approaches to governance. They resist what they
perceive as Western dominance. Examples include China's Belt and Road Initiative, which
focuses on state-led infrastructure development, and India's Rural Development &
Agriculture Support programs aimed at improving livelihoods through government
intervention. BRICS countries promote cultural diversity and multipolar cooperation.
They challenge the imposition of universal political and economic norms. (Al Jazeera,
2023) & (Kumar and Mendes, 2024: 38).
Conclusion
BRICS and G7 both face internal challenges and opportunities as they navigate an
increasingly complex global landscape. These factors impact their internal cohesion, unity
and future scenarios. It is crucial to understand this because multipolarity and
technological advancements are redefining influence and power.
BRICS faces significant challenges in maintaining internal cohesion due to economic
disparities and political divergences among its members. China’s economic and
technological dominance creates an imbalance within the group. It also hampers
equitable cooperation. Smaller economies like South Africa often struggle to match the
scale of China. Additionally, political tensions, such as the long-standing border disputes
between India and China, the Sino-Russian ideological conflicts, etc., pose risks to
strategic alignment. These factors complicate decision-making and the ability to present
a unified front in international governance (Cooper & Antkiewicz, 2008: 110).
G7 faces ageing populations and economic stagnation in the majority of the states. Japan
and several European countries are managing on the brink with declining birth rates and
increased pressure on social welfare systems. Furthermore, G7 nations have seen their
global influence wane in the face of rising economic powers like China and India. This
limits the G7's ability to sustain its leadership role in a world that is shifting toward
multipolarity.
JANUS.NET, e-journal of International Relations
e-ISSN: 1647-7251
VOL. 16, Nº. 2
November 2025-April 2026, pp. 290-306
Brics vs. G7: A Comparative Analysis of Economic and Political Efficiency
in Shaping Global Order
Patkar Kalpesh Dilip
304
Despite internal challenges, both blocs have opportunities to strengthen their global
influence. BRICS can leverage its growing partnerships with the Global South to expand
its role in global governance. Belt and Road Initiative and South-South cooperation
programs have increased BRICS' strategic importance to emerging economies.
Additionally, BRICS countries, particularly China and India, are becoming leaders in
artificial intelligence (AI) development. BRICS has potential opportunities to drive
innovation and influence future global technological norms.
For the G7, prospects lie in strengthening alliances and shaping global standards in AI
ethics, Cybersecurity and Sustainable Development. The G7 has already made robust
steps in AI research and regulation. Furthermore, G7 nations are expanding their
geopolitical alliances in the Indo-Pacific, where partnerships with Australia, Japan and
India, i.e., QUAD Alliance, are helping counterbalance China’s growing influence. QUAD
is, ironically, a threat to BRICS.
A central challenge for BRICS is balancing economic development with political
alignment. While projects like the New Development Bank (NDB) have encouraged
infrastructure development, achieving consensus on broader policy issues remains
difficult. Divergent geopolitical interests, such as Russia's focus on military power versus
Brazil’s environmental priorities, hamper long-term cooperation. Similarly, G7 countries
face criticisms for their perceived dominance over global financial institutions, which has
strained relations with developing nations.
However, both groups have opportunities to lead in global issues. BRICS can expand its
influence by promoting alternative frameworks for economic development and digital
governance. Its emphasis on regional partnerships could allow it to become a central
player in addressing the needs of developing nations. On the other hand, the G7 can
maintain relevance by investing in technological innovation and forging stronger ties with
emerging economies. Efforts to lead on climate change, digital security, and economic
recovery will be crucial to the G7's long-term influence.
The internal challenges of BRICS and G7 highlight the difficulties and complexities of
maintaining unity within each bloc. However, both groups also have significant
opportunities to shape the future of global governance. Rising multipolarity and
technological advancements are reshaping the nature of influence and power, offering
both blocs a chance to redefine their roles worldwide. Through innovation, partnerships,
and effective leadership, BRICS and G7 can continue to compete and collaborate in
shaping the world’s political and economic landscape. (Singh, 2023: 115)
In conclusion, BRICS and G7 could find common ground in areas like climate change and
global health, where cooperation benefits everyone. Both blocs face shared risks from
rising temperatures, pandemics, and resource shortages. Working together on clean
energy, vaccine distribution, or early warning systems is possible, especially through
international platforms like the G20. Middle powers such as Indonesia could help bridge
differences. These countries are not strongly aligned with either bloc, making them good
mediators. They can promote dialogue and cooperation by focusing on common goals
like sustainable development and global stability, helping reduce tensions and
encouraging more inclusive global leadership.
JANUS.NET, e-journal of International Relations
e-ISSN: 1647-7251
VOL. 16, Nº. 2
November 2025-April 2026, pp. 290-306
Brics vs. G7: A Comparative Analysis of Economic and Political Efficiency
in Shaping Global Order
Patkar Kalpesh Dilip
305
References
Allison, G. (2017). The future of global power competition. Foreign Affairs. 96(4): 80–
91.
Al Jazeera (2023). BRICS discusses creating alternative to US dollar. Al Jazeera [online].
August, 2023. [Accessed 30 January 2025]. Available at: https://www.aljazeera.com
BBC News (2023). Tensions rise between BRICS and G7. BBC News [online]. July, 2023.
[Accessed 30 January 2025]. Available at: https://www.bbc.com/news
Brooks, S. (2021). China's expanding influence through BRICS. The Diplomat [online].
March, 2021. [Accessed 30 January 2025]. Available at: https://thediplomat.com
Chossudovsky, M. (2003). The globalization of poverty and the new world order. Shanty
Bay, Canada: Global Research.
Climate Policy Journal (2021). India's role in global climate negotiations. Climate Policy
[online]. October, 2021. [Accessed 30 January 2025]. Available at:
https://www.climatepolicyjournal.com
Cooper, A. F., & Antkiewicz, A. (2008). Emerging powers in global governance: Lessons
from the Heiligendamm process. Waterloo, Canada: Wilfrid Laurier University Press.
Dupont, C. (2020). The economics of global governance reform. International Review of
Economics. 68(1): 45–67.
Economist Intelligence Unit (2021). Forecasts for global economic growth. The Economist
[online]. June, 2021. [Accessed 30 January 2025]. Available at: https://www.eiu.com
Eichengreen, B. (2011). Exorbitant privilege: The rise and fall of the dollar and the future
of the international monetary system. New York, NY: Oxford University Press.
Global Finance Magazine (2022). G7 leadership and economic recovery efforts. Global
Finance [online]. April, 2022. [Accessed 30 January 2025]. Available at:
https://www.gfmag.com
Kumar, A. and Mendes, P. (2024). De-dollarization and the BRICS bank: Shaping financial
sovereignty. Global South Economics. 12(3): 34–50.
Lee, H. (2024). G7’s Indo-Pacific pivot: Strategic recalibrations in response to China. The
International Affairs Journal. 77(1): 55–73.
Leininger, J. (2018). The politics of global inequality. In D. Held (ed.), International
political economy. Cambridge, UK: Polity Press, pp. 120–138.
Matthews, C. (2020). AI leadership strategies in BRICS and G7 nations. World Economic
Forum [online]. May, 2020. [Accessed 30 January 2025]. Available at:
https://www.weforum.org
O'Brien, R. (2010). Multilateral institutions in crisis. In M. Cox (ed.), Globalization and
the challenges of global governance. London, UK: Routledge, pp. 45–61.
OECD Observer (2019). Digital infrastructure and financial inclusion. OECD Observer
[online]. September, 2019. [Accessed 30 January 2025]. Available at:
https://www.oecd.org
JANUS.NET, e-journal of International Relations
e-ISSN: 1647-7251
VOL. 16, Nº. 2
November 2025-April 2026, pp. 290-306
Brics vs. G7: A Comparative Analysis of Economic and Political Efficiency
in Shaping Global Order
Patkar Kalpesh Dilip
306
Reuters (2022). G7 sanctions and economic strategies. Reuters [online]. November,
2022. [Accessed 30 January 2025]. Available at: https://www.reuters.com
Singh, R. (2023). BRICS and the quest for a multipolar currency order. Foreign Policy
Review. 45(2): 112–129.
Smith, J. (2018). The rise of multipolarity in global finance. The Guardian. March 12, pp.
A3–A5.
Stiglitz, J. E. (2002). Globalization and its discontents. New York, NY: W.W. Norton &
Company.
Thakur, R. (2016). The United Nations, peace and security: From collective security to
the responsibility to protect. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press.
UNCTAD (2022). Development finance in emerging economies. UNCTAD Reports [online].
December, 2022. [Accessed 30 January 2025]. Available at: https://unctad.org
World Bank (2023). Infrastructure investment trends. World Bank Reports [online].
January, 2023. [Accessed 30 January 2025]. Available at: https://www.worldbank.org
OBSERVARE
Universidade Autónoma de Lisboa
e-ISSN: 1647-7251
VOL. 16, Nº. 2
November 2025-April 2026
307
IMPLICATIONS OF CONTEMPORARY INTERNATIONAL MONETARY SYSTEM ON
DEBT CRISIS IN THE GLOBAL SOUTH
ZEKERI MOMOH
momohz@kku.edu.ng
PhD, Department of Political Science, Karl Kumm University (Nigeria).
Abstract
There is a growing concern in the global south on the unfavourable nature of the contemporary
international monetary system and international debt crisis on development in the global
south. This concern have been situated within the liberals and historical structuralist
perspectives to the study of international political economy. While both perspective have
tenaciously hold on to their postulations on the nature of present international monetary
system and the causes of the debt crisis in the global south.This study examine the
implications of contemporary international monetary system on debt crisis in the global south.
This study is situated with the context of historical research design with data collected from
various secondary sources such as journals, books and internet sources. The analysis of the
study was carried out using qualitative content analysis. Moreover, one of the implications of
the World Bank and IMF structural adjustment and conditionalities on the global south is that
its impedes the global south efforts at developing their infrastructure, health service delivery
and educational development among others. Lastly, this study recommend among other
things, good leadership, good governance and sound domestic economic system are key in
addressing the consequences of contemporary international monetary system and
international debt crisis on development in the global south.
Keywords
Debt, Liberalism, Crisis, Regime, Money, International Monetary Fund.
Resumo
Existe uma preocupação crescente no sul global quanto à natureza desfavorável do sistema
monetário internacional contemporâneo e à crise da dívida internacional sobre o
desenvolvimento no sul global. Essa preocupação tem sido enquadrada dentro das perspetivas
liberais e estruturalistas históricas para o estudo da economia política internacional. Embora
ambas as perspetivas se tenham mantido firmes nas suas postulações sobre a natureza do
atual sistema monetário internacional e as causas da crise da dívida no sul global. Este estudo
examina as implicações do sistema monetário internacional contemporâneo na crise da dívida
no sul global. Este estudo está situado no contexto de um projeto de pesquisa histórica com
dados recolhidos de várias fontes secundárias, tais como revistas, livros e fontes da Internet.
A análise do estudo foi realizada utilizando análise qualitativa de conteúdo. Além disso, uma
das implicações do ajustamento estrutural e das condicionalidades do Banco Mundial e do FMI
no sul global é que impede os esforços do sul global no desenvolvimento das suas
infraestruturas, prestação de serviços de saúde e desenvolvimento educacional, entre outros.
Por último, este estudo recomenda, entre outras coisas, que uma boa liderança, uma boa
governação e um sistema económico interno sólido são fundamentais para lidar com as
JANUS.NET, e-journal of International Relations
e-ISSN: 1647-7251
VOL. 16, Nº. 2
November 2025-April 2026, pp. 307-328
Implications of Contemporary International Monetary System on Debt Crisis
in the Global South
Zekeri Momoh
308
consequências do sistema monetário internacional contemporâneo e da crise da dívida
internacional no desenvolvimento do sul global.
Palavras-chave
Dívida, Liberalismo, Crise, Regime, Dinheiro, Fundo Monetário Internacional.
How to cite this article
Momoh, Zekeri (2025). Implications of Contemporary International Monetary System on Debt
Crisis in the Global South. Janus.net, e-journal of international relations. VOL. 16, Nº. 2, November
2025-April 2026, pp. 307-328. DOI https://doi.org/10.26619/1647-7251.16.2.17
Article submitted on 24th December 2024 and accepted for publication on 13th
September 2025.
JANUS.NET, e-journal of International Relations
e-ISSN: 1647-7251
VOL. 16, Nº. 2
November 2025-April 2026, pp. 307-328
Implications of Contemporary International Monetary System on Debt Crisis
in the Global South
Zekeri Momoh
309
IMPLICATIONS OF CONTEMPORARY INTERNATIONAL MONETARY
SYSTEM ON DEBT CRISIS IN THE GLOBAL SOUTH
ZEKERI MOMOH
Introduction
The evolution of contemporary international monetary relations can be categorised into
the following phases: the classical gold standard era which was between 1870s to World
War I. During this period gold was the standard unit of exchange and government all
over the world were making concerted efforts at converting their domestic currency to
gold at a fixed rate. After this period, was the Bretton Woods system which lasted from
1944-1973. The Bretton Wood era was also characterised by a monetary regime that was
greatly influenced by interventionist liberalism, that allow nations to fix their exchange
rates to gold, which allowed the U.S. dollar as the international currency for conversion.
Today, there are pressure for traditional liberals for free market economy.
Consequently, the establishment of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) was
necessitated by the need for the bank to provide short-term loans to the Global South to
address their growing balance-of-payments challenges and to ensure that there was state
intervention in capital flows in order to maintain exchange rate stability among nations.
It is important note that the rising U.S. balance-of-payments deficits, as well as domestic
pressures on the United States made the US to return to traditional Liberalism. It was
against this backdrop that there was a paradigm shift from post WWI pegged currency
conversion to floating exchange rates by 1973.
However, the Bretton Woods system collapsed due to two basic problem. The first was
the United States making it difficult for countries to convert the US Dollars into gold and
second was the conscious efforts by President Charles de Gualle converting dollars into
gold. These two factors prompted the shift in international monetary relations in 1973.
Today, international monetary relations is based on the mixed regime system which
consist of the floating and fixed exchange rates that started from 1973. In 1973, the
international community began a shift from the Bretton Wood monetary system, such
that in 1976, there was a complete shift to the floating exchange rates that allow
countries not to obstruct the currency market system to allow the market forces to
determine currency values in the international monetary system (Cohen 2016).
One of the disadvances of post and present international monetary system on Global
South with reference to Africa is the rising debt crisis that has impeded the growth and
development of African countries. Besides, the debt crisis that has impeded the growth
and development of many Global South countries and have left long lasting negative
implications in Africa was the 1980 debt crisis. In the literature of International Political
Economy, a number of reasons have been advanced to be responsible for the 1980s debt
crisis such as unexpected chnages in the global economy, irresponsible behaviour of the
JANUS.NET, e-journal of International Relations
e-ISSN: 1647-7251
VOL. 16, Nº. 2
November 2025-April 2026, pp. 307-328
Implications of Contemporary International Monetary System on Debt Crisis
in the Global South
Zekeri Momoh
310
creditor nations, irresponsible behaviour of the indebted Global South and dependence
of the Global South on the Global North for foreign loan (Cohen, 2000; 2016).
Moreover, the unexpected changes in the global economy was attributed largely to the
sharp increase in the prices of food grains (especially wheat) in the 1960s and the Middle
East War in October, 1973 that led to increase in the price of oil. Another reason was
attributed to overlending by the creditors without considering the credit worthiness of
the Global South. For instance, the assertion that debt cisis of the 1980s was attributed
to the imprudent behaviour on the part of the Global South were situated within the
context of the liberal perspective. While, the postulations that the 1980s oil crisis was
attributed to the dependence of Global South on the Global North for loans and other
credit facilities were further situated within the context of the historical structuralists
perspective to the study of International Political Economy. The historical structuralists
especially those labelled as Dependency school attributed the reliance of the Global South
on the Global North to long term structural nature of the world capitalist system.
However, the nineteenth Century witnessed widespread of debt crisis and loans defaults
in the 1930s that affected the capital flows into Southern Europe, Eastern Europe and
Latin American countries. The international debt crisis of the early 1980s was regarded
by scholars as “one of the most traumatic international disturbances” of the twentieth
century (Cline, 1995:1; Cohen, 2000:165). The 1980s international debt crisis took the
international community by suprised because many countries did not envisage the debt
crisis and the consequences of the debt crisis on the international banking system was
detrimental to significant numbers of Global South such as Mexico, Zaire, Argentina,
Peru, Sierra Leone, Sudan and Togo just to mention a few.
Prior to the 1980s there was were absence of global financial institutions to deal with
debt related challenges as sizeable numbers of countries and governments were unwilling
to intervene in debt crisis related issues as private bank lending to Global South increased
especially around the 1970s as a result of IMF advised, in a bid for Global South to change
their economic policies and programmes inline with liberal economic system. By 1982,
most indebted Global South could not pay their loans from larger commerical banks which
were key player in the global financial system. The consequences of the failure of
indebted Global South to meet their loan obligation affected the international financial
stability. It is against this background that the creditor government considered it
necessary to intervene in the debt settlement process in the 1980s Moreover, the leading
creditors that spearhead addressing the debt crisis in the 1980s were the United States,
International Monetary Funds (IMF), World Bank, the Paris Club, London Club and the
Bank for International Settlements all playing international financial supporting roles
(Cohen, 2000:165). It is pertinent to note that the debt regime became prevelent in the
1980s when compared to the 1930s because, there was the absence of global hegemon
like the United States, World Bank and IMF in the 1930s but are evident in 1980s
(Corbridge, 1993:25).
By late 1990s the Asian continent witnessed what is known today in International Political
Economy literature as the Asian Financial Crisis. It started in Thailand in July 1997, when
there high demand for its currency due to capital inflows. This capital inflow led to rise in
its current account deficit, decline in Thailand export, decline in property prices and
growing international debt of Thailand which resulted in depreciation of the Thailand baht.
JANUS.NET, e-journal of International Relations
e-ISSN: 1647-7251
VOL. 16, Nº. 2
November 2025-April 2026, pp. 307-328
Implications of Contemporary International Monetary System on Debt Crisis
in the Global South
Zekeri Momoh
311
Similarly, other Asian countries such as Indonesia, South Korea, Malaysia, the
Philippines, and Singapore began to witness similar economic shock, in what was
popularly referred to as “financial contagion” because investors were afraid that just as
Thailand devalued its currency there was the tendency that other Asian countries might
do so. This led to capital outflow, currencies depreciation and a rapid fall in stock markets,
banking crises, and decline in economic growth rates. This economic challenges led to
political instability and civil disobedence in Thailand, Indonesia, South Korea, and
Philippines (Cohen 2016).
Consequently, the 2008 global financial crisis that started in the United States negatively
affected the global economy was attributed to the “financial contagion” just like the Asian
financial crisis of 1997. This “financial contagion” are often triggered by investors rush to
sell their currency. This often led to capital outflow. In the Asian financial crisis and the
2008 global financial crisis had common features, such as common stocks in real estate
bubbles, deficits in current account, and heavy reliance on large capital inflows. It is
pertinent to note that the debt crisis of 1980s and the Asian financial crisis of 1997 both
started from the Global South as a result of government debts. The implication of debt
crises that emanates from the Global Southis that it gives more power and influence to
the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and Developed Countries over the debtors
developing countries. This explains why the IMF and World Bank has continued to impose
its structural adjustment policies and programmes on Global South that continue to suffer
from economic dislocation as a result of the implementation of liberal economic reforms
that has no bearing on the wellbeing and living standard of the citizens.
On the contrary, the 1929/1930 and ended in 1933. The 2008 global financial crisis
started in the United States in December 2007 and ended in June 2009 as well as the
Euro crisis 2008 started from the developed countries as a result of European crisis. It is
pertinent to note that government debt was responsible for the Greece debt crisis while
in other European countries, government entered into debt in order to bail out banks.
The implication of the debt crisis that emanates from the developed countries is that it
lead to the emergence of developed countries especially the European Union as emerging
economies within the international system. This explains that the present international
monetary and financial system is at the disadvantage of the Global South.
On the whole, there is a call by interventionist liberals for a return to a interventionist
system that will allow for pegging of currency to gold or a standard unit of international
currency conversion. The 1997 Asian financial Crisis, 2008 global economic crisis and
European financial crisis also known Euro crisis of 2008, were all caused by the adoption
of the free market economic system without interventionist measure. On the contrary,
the liberals have argued that global financial crisis have been attributed to poor domestic
policies and weak political institutions in developing countries, not from capital outflows.
It is agains this background, that this study seeks to examine the implications of
contemporary international monetary system on debt crisis in the global south.
Conceptual Review of the Contemporary International Monetary System
The contemporary international monetary system (IMS) refers to the set of institutions,
rules, practices, and instruments that govern global monetary relations, cross-border
JANUS.NET, e-journal of International Relations
e-ISSN: 1647-7251
VOL. 16, Nº. 2
November 2025-April 2026, pp. 307-328
Implications of Contemporary International Monetary System on Debt Crisis
in the Global South
Zekeri Momoh
312
capital flows, and exchange rate stability. At its core, the IMS performs three functions:
providing international liquidity, ensuring adjustment mechanisms for balance-of-
payments disequilibria, and maintaining confidence in the stability of the system (IMF,
2025).
A central feature of the system is the hierarchy of currencies, where the U.S. dollar plays
a dominant role as the primary reserve, invoicing, and settlement currency. Despite
periodic discussions of multipolarity, the dollar accounts for the majority of global
reserves, trade invoicing, and cross-border financial contracts (Federal Reserve, 2025).
The euro and, increasingly, the Chinese renminbi occupy secondary positions, but dollar
dominance continues to generate spillover effects from U.S. monetary policy to the Global
South (European Parliament, 2025).
Another defining aspect is the increasing role of global capital markets in financing. Since
the liberalization of the 1980s and 1990s, private markets have replaced official flows as
the primary source of international liquidity. This evolution has increased vulnerability to
sudden stops and capital flight, especially in emerging economies that rely heavily on
foreign-currency-denominated debt (Bank for International Settlements, 2025). These
vulnerabilities are amplified by what scholars describe as the “original sin” problem,
where many developing economies are unable to borrow internationally in their domestic
currency (Eichengreen, 2019).
The global financial safety net (GFSN) forms the institutional backbone of crisis response.
It is composed of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), regional financial
arrangements, bilateral central bank swap lines, and multilateral development banks.
During the COVID-19 crisis, the IMF’s unprecedented $650 billion allocation of Special
Drawing Rights (SDRs) demonstrated the importance of unconditional reserve assets for
liquidity provision (IMF, 2023). However, critics argue that access to this safety net
remains asymmetrical, with advanced economies benefiting disproportionately from
swap lines and SDR holdings, while low-income countries face conditional lending (Boston
University GDP Center et al., 2024).
Recent reforms have sought to enhance liquidity and governance. For example, IMF
members have begun channeling SDRs to multilateral development banks (MDBs) to
expand lending capacity (Reuters, 2024). Yet governance gaps remain: the allocation of
voting power within the IMF and World Bank continues to reflect post-World War II
realities rather than contemporary global economic structures (Carnegie Endowment,
2024). This imbalance raises questions about the system’s fairness and effectiveness in
addressing the needs of the Global South.
Furthermore, scholars and policymakers emphasize the growing challenge of
fragmentation and multipolarity. Regional initiatives such as the Chiang Mai Initiative in
Asia, along with the use of alternative payment systems, suggest a gradual diversification
away from a purely dollar-centric order. However, while such fragmentation may provide
options for crisis financing, it complicates coordination in sovereign debt restructuring
and systemic responses (UNCTAD/Bretton Woods Project, 2025).
On the whole, contemporary International Monetary System is characterized by the
persistence of dollar dominance, the volatility of private capital markets, the incomplete
and uneven coverage of the global financial safety net, and persistent governance
JANUS.NET, e-journal of International Relations
e-ISSN: 1647-7251
VOL. 16, Nº. 2
November 2025-April 2026, pp. 307-328
Implications of Contemporary International Monetary System on Debt Crisis
in the Global South
Zekeri Momoh
313
asymmetries. Conceptually, these features show that the IMS remains structurally
imbalanced, with implications for global stability and for the debt vulnerabilities of the
Global South.
Literature Review
There is a growing numbers of study in International Political Economy that focuses on
various aspects of international financial or monetary system. For instance, Cohen (2000)
examined the monetary governance in the international system. Cohen (2004)
investigated the future of international monetary system. Again Cohen (2015) in his
study examined competition among various currencies within the international system.
Besides, Cohen (2016) investigated the nature of international monetary relations from
inception to 2016. However, Eichengreen (2008) examined the globalization of capital
while Cohen (2008) investigated the nature of international monetary governance. James
(1996) study focus on the International Monetary Cooperation Since the inception of the
Bretton Woods system.
Nevertheless, Bootle (2013) examine the crisis associated with Euro. Verdun (2002) had
earlier examined the euro and integration theory. Porter (2005) studied the governance
of global finance. Fratianni, et al studied the governing of global finance with focus on
the new challenges of G7 and IMF Contributions. However, Prasad (2014) examined the
changing role of the US dollar. Again, Eichengreen (2011) investigated the rise and fall
of the US Dollar. Helleiner, et al (2009) studied the future of the US dollar.
However, Helleiner and Kirshner (2015) investigated China’s growing monetary power in
the International system. On the influence of domestic politics on international finance,
Broz and Frieden (2001) investigated the Political Economy of International Monetary
Relations. Webb (1995) examined the relationship between capital mobility, policy
coordination, and domestic autonomy since 1945. From the review of the above
literature, a lot of studies have been conducted on the nature of international monetary
and financial system as well as international debt crisis.
The various financial crises in the world has attracted the attention of scholars to examine
their causes and implications. For instance, Kirshner (2014) examined the United States
power after the 2008 financial crisis. On the 2008 global financial crisis, scholars who
carried out study in this area include Helleiner (2014); Blinder (2013); Rajan (2010) and
Lewis (2011) among others. On the European debt crisis scholars who have undertaken
research in this area include Marsh (2013); Berend (2013) and Pisany-Ferry, (2011). On
the controversial austerity measures adopted as a result of the EU crisis was undertaken
by Blyth (2013). On regulation and financial crises, scholars like Barth, Caprio and Levine
(2012) wrote on the, financial regulations that work. However, the 1990s Asian financial
crisis has attracted the works of Carney (2009); Pempel (1999); Thirkell-White (2005).
On international debt crises include Herman and Spiegel (2010) and Rieffel, (2003)
among others.
The contemporary international monetary system has been widely critiqued for
entrenching structural inequalities that disproportionately affect the Global South. Recent
scholarship emphasizes that the persistence of dollar dominance, fluctuating global
JANUS.NET, e-journal of International Relations
e-ISSN: 1647-7251
VOL. 16, Nº. 2
November 2025-April 2026, pp. 307-328
Implications of Contemporary International Monetary System on Debt Crisis
in the Global South
Zekeri Momoh
314
interest rates, and conditional lending practices exacerbate debt vulnerabilities in
developing economies. For instance, Ocampo and Bértola (2022) argue that the
international monetary system is inherently asymmetrical, as Global South countries face
limited access to liquidity during crises compared to advanced economies. This imbalance
was evident during the COVID-19 pandemic, when capital outflows and currency
depreciations heightened debt burdens in Africa and Latin America. Similarly, Gallagher
and Kozul-Wright (2021) highlight that reliance on dollar-denominated debt exposes
Global South economies to exchange rate volatility, thereby aggravating debt service
obligations whenever the U.S. Federal Reserve raises interest rates.
A growing body of literature underscores the role of international financial institutions
(IFIs) in perpetuating debt crises through policy conditionalities. Kentikelenis and Stubbs
(2023) observe that structural adjustment programs tied to IMF lending continue to
impose austerity measures, reducing fiscal space for social spending and development.
These dynamics deepen dependency and limit the autonomy of debtor nations in shaping
their own economic recovery paths.
Other scholars focus on the governance architecture of the international monetary
system. Acosta and Griffith-Jones (2022) maintain that the current system privileges
creditor nations and private financial markets, while debtor nations in the Global South
lack meaningful representation in global decision-making forums. This asymmetry
reproduces cycles of debt distress, as countries must borrow under unfavorable terms
with limited mechanisms for restructuring. In addition, there is increasing attention on
the debt–climate nexus. For instance, Bhattacharya and Stern (2023) contend that many
Global South economies face a “double crisis” of debt and climate vulnerability, as high
debt servicing crowds out investments in climate adaptation and mitigation. The absence
of innovative financing mechanisms such as debt-for-climate swaps illustrates how the
international monetary system is failing to address contemporary global challenges.
Overall, the literature converges on the argument that the structure of the international
monetary system systematically disadvantages the Global South. Today, US dollar
dependency, conditional lending, limited representation in global financial governance,
and inadequate mechanisms for debt restructuring combine to reinforce debt crises.
While proposals such as Special Drawing Rights (SDRs) allocation and regional financial
arrangements offer potential relief, the studies reviewed emphasize that without
systemic reform, the Global South will continue to be caught in recurrent debt traps. It
is against this background this study seeks to make contributions to the implications of
contemporary international monetary system on debt crisis in the global south.
Theoretical Framework
Theories abound in International Political economy for the study of international
monetary/financial system and foreign debt crisis such as liberal theory, historical
structural theory, hegemonic stability theory and regime theory among others. Looking
at the variables under investigation namely international monetary/financial system and
foreign debt crisis. The regime theory is appropriate in understanding the nexus between
international monetary/financial system and foreign debt crisis. The regime theory has
JANUS.NET, e-journal of International Relations
e-ISSN: 1647-7251
VOL. 16, Nº. 2
November 2025-April 2026, pp. 307-328
Implications of Contemporary International Monetary System on Debt Crisis
in the Global South
Zekeri Momoh
315
Stephen D. Krasner and Robert Keohane as its leading proponents. It emerged as a
theory in the 1970s.
The Regime theory is anchored on the premise that regimes help to reduce the conflict
that characterized the nature of the international system and promote cooperation
among states. The regime theory is used to explain why in some sections of the
international system experience, orderliness while in some areas, there are conflicts.
Regimes are “sets of implicit or explicit principles, norms, rules, and decision-making
procedures around which actors’ expectations converge in a given area of international
relations.” (Feldstein, 1994:737).
Regime principles and norms are anchored on the assertion that there are universal
practices and patterns of behaviour that regulate relationships and interactions among
states. For instance, international trade are guided by certain principles such as trade
liberalization, reciprocity, and nondiscrimination principle. Hence, basic rules and
regulations tends to emanates from this broader trade principles and norms which
influence behaviours of nations in their relationship and transactions with each other.
Today, we have significant numbers of International regimes that are closely linked with
international organizations (IOs), because of their very nature as an institutions with
official roles and responsibilities, with a minimum of three member states. It is pertinent
to note that international organizations operate within formal bodies that are guided by
international regimes. For instance, the IMF, World Bank and WTO operate within the
frameworks of international financial regimes.
Robert Keohane argues that it is stress-free to uphold regimes than to construct new
ones and that there is the tendency for countries to benefit from a regime and it is ease
also for states to unilaterally preserve a regime even after there is hegemonic declines
in the international system (Birdsall, et al 2005). It equally important to note that the
regime theory has been used to study regime outcomes especially in the areas of
international debt crisis, environment issues, transportation, and communications among
others (Ffrench-Davis, 1988; Corbridge, 1993).
On the whole, to assess regime outcomes, regime theorists would investigate whether
states accept the existing regime principles, norms, and regulations; or whether the
existing regimes could successfully accomplish solve international problems; and whether
regimes actually make states to widen their views of self-interest or not. All these
questions are key in understanding regime system around the world (Feinberg, 1988).
It is against this background that this study adopted the regime theory to examine the
implications of contemporary international monetary relations on debt crisis in the global
south.
International Monetary system and Debt Crisis in the Global South
Prior to the WWII the international mechanism’s for addressing debt crisis were restricted
to either unilateral decisions taken by creditors or debtors country or a bilateral
resolutions which was a situation whereby the creditors or debtors reached a consensus
on how the can be addressed. However, after WW II the pattern of settlement of foreign
debts involve tripartite parties such as the World Bank, IMF, Paris and London Clubs.
JANUS.NET, e-journal of International Relations
e-ISSN: 1647-7251
VOL. 16, Nº. 2
November 2025-April 2026, pp. 307-328
Implications of Contemporary International Monetary System on Debt Crisis
in the Global South
Zekeri Momoh
316
Though, the U.S sometimes acted as third party in Global Southaccess to loan (Lindert
et al 1989: 66-77).
The aftermath of WW II was characteried by the emergence of international debt
regimes. Some of these international debt regimes covers one or more sector of the
economy. Though the 1980’s international debt regime cover specific regime within the
framework of balance-of-payments financing regime because international debt regime
focus on specific issue. The first international debt regime that emerged was the balance-
of-payments debt regime. The principle of balance-of-payments financing was anchored
on the notion that was sufficient but not unrestricted to alternative fund and was made
available to countries for handling their balance-of-payment deficit challenges. The
principle was also based on the notion that countries proving loan may attach conditions
for the repayment of their loans, considered to be appropriate in addressing the debtors
balance- of- payment financing regime on borrowers (Cohen. 2000).
Moreover, the 1970s balance-of-payments regime faced serious challenge from private
banks that provided Global Southwith loan as significant numbers of Global Southcould
not meet the creditworthiness required for the private banks loan. This was attributed to
the harsh conditionalities attached to the loans received by most Global Southas at that
time. For instance, in 1982, Mexico declared that it would not be able to pay it loan. This
prompted private banks to immediately cut thier loan to developing countries. It was
against this background that significant numbers of Global Southto return to the
International Monetary Fund (IMF) for their loan assistance.
However, the reliance of Global Southon official financing provided the platform for the
United States and other international organisations to introduced the foreign debt regime,
which replaced the pre-1970s balance-of-payment regimes. Therefore, the foreign debt
regime was based on the principle that debt regime based on conditionality of Global
Southcompliance and commitment to the market oriented reforms. It is important to
note that the pre-1970 balance-of-payment regime differs in some area from the 1980
foreign debt regime. For instance, the foreign debt regime through the instrumentality
of th the United States of America and IMF imposed put more pressure on commercial
banks to continue granting loans to indepted poor countries. Also, the Paris and London
club were used in the 1980s and 1990s than the pre-1970s period.
Again, the World Bank and IMF became key players in the provision of structural
adjustment loan to Global Southfrom the 1980s. Moreover, the loans provided by the
World Bank and IMF to the Global Southin Africa and Estern European countries were
closely linked to their adoption of liberal economic reforms such as privatisation,
deregulation and trade liberalisation. Though, the negotiation of Paris and London Clubs
were achored on three fundamental principles of imminent default, conditionality and
burden distribution.
There are three types of negotiations that took place between the creditors (World Bank,
IMF, Paris and London Clubs as well as other commercial banks) and the debtors (Global
Southin Africa, Asia, Latin America and Eastern Europe). The first negotiation was
between the World Bank and IMF who accept to provide structural adjustment loans to
the indebted Global Southin order to implement economic policies and programmes that
would address their balance-of-payment deficit. For instance, countries that were
JANUS.NET, e-journal of International Relations
e-ISSN: 1647-7251
VOL. 16, Nº. 2
November 2025-April 2026, pp. 307-328
Implications of Contemporary International Monetary System on Debt Crisis
in the Global South
Zekeri Momoh
317
formerly members of the Soviet Union that were indebted in the 1980s and those that
needed World Bank and IMF to finance their infrastructure such as Poland, People’s
Republic of China, Hungary, Romania, Albania, Croatia, Slovenia, Macedonia, Czech
Republic and Bosnia and Herzegovina among others either adopted the World Bank and
IMF economic policies or had adopted similar economic reforms such as the market
socialist system that was characterised by workers self management.
The second negotiation was between the Paris and London Clubs. This negotiation often
consist of members of the indebted countries, creditors countries, representatives from
the World Bank, IMF, Regional Development Bank and the United Nations Conference on
Trade and Development (UNCTAD). A critical assessment of the modus oparandi of the
Paris Club is that it adopted three basic principles in its debt negotiation which include:
imminent defult which constrained the debtors demand for relief to countries with
important needs to prevent unwaranted negotiation and to show the severity of the
situation or needs. Conditionality is also adopted in the Paris Club principle to show that
the debtor is creditworthy and will be able to pay thier debts based on the agreement
signed with the International Monetary Funds (IMF) (Kuhn et al 1990:7). In some
situation when the country in question is not a member of the IMF as at the time of
requesting for the loan from the Paris Club as in the case of Cuba, Poland and
Mozambique. The Paris Club usually reschedule it own conditionality programme that will
ensure that the debtor country does not default on its payments.
The third principle of negotiation was based on burden sharing. This implies that the Paris
Club ensures that it provide relief in relation to their loan accessable to the debtor
country. As stated earlier under the first negotiation, the United States and IMF were
instrumental to developing strategies to address the debt criss of the 1980s. The
objectives of the international debt strategies according to Cohen (2000:180) was “to
prevent the collapse of the international banking and financial system, to restore capital
market access for the debtor countries, and to minimize economic dislocation and restore
economic growth in the debtor countries.” This assertion shows that the goals of the
international debt strategies was to prevent pre-1930 incidence of debt crisis, ensure
that Global Southin need of loan were able to access the capital market for loan and to
ensure that Global Southensure steady economic growth.
It is important to note that the World Bank and IMF adopted a number of strategies in
addressing debt crisis since in the 1980s. For instance, the emergency measures and
involuntary leanding was launched between 1982-1985 as an international debt strategy
that invlove “firefighting” strategy. This strategy of managing the 1980 debt crisis was
designed by the United States, IMF and other creditors to provide a short-term
emergence financing to highly debted Global Southsuch as Mexico, Brazil and Venezuela
just to mention a few in order to prevent similar financial crisis to the 1930s crisis.
However, this short term measure did not brought the desired relief to the debted Global
Southas envisaged by the creditors rather the debtor countries were worst off in terms
of witnessing economic growth.
Also, the Baker plan was initiated between 1986-1988 following a meeting of G5 Finance
Minister and Central Bank Governors organised by the U.S. Secretary of the Treasury
James Baker III in New York City’s Plaza Hotel in September 1985. The Baker’s plan was
introduced in late 1985 to assist debtor countries with a solution for dealing with their
JANUS.NET, e-journal of International Relations
e-ISSN: 1647-7251
VOL. 16, Nº. 2
November 2025-April 2026, pp. 307-328
Implications of Contemporary International Monetary System on Debt Crisis
in the Global South
Zekeri Momoh
318
debt crisis. The Baker plan was premised on the assumption that the postponement of
some debt payments by Global Southand the provision of new loans will help the debtor
countries to grow their way out of their debt and could improve their export and be able
to reduce their debt (Cline, 1995).
Nevertheless, the Baker plan did not do much to improve the situation of the indebted
developing countries, rather their situation got worst as IMF and creditor banks were
insisting on structural adjustment policies and programme as a top priority for developing
countries. Again, the plan failed because the focus of the creditor banks and IMF were
on Latin American countries with less emphasis on other Global Southin other regions of
the world. Besides, debtor Global Southexperience economic stagnation due to poor
economic growth that affected the United States exports in Latin American markets.
Given the failure of the Baker’s plan, the Brandy plan was introduced between 1989-
1994 by the United States Secretary of the Treasury, Nicholas J.Brandy in March 1989.
Under the Brandy plan each debtor country negotiate independently with the creditor.
The debtor country is expected to accept the IMF and World Bank structural adjustment
or liberal economic reforms. However, the Brandy plan differs from the Baker plan with
its emphasis on debt reduction, or partial debt forgiveness of existing debt. Inspite of the
recommendations of the Brandy plan, the economic situation of debtor Global Southdid
not improved as envisaged that the adoption of the liberal economic policies and
programme will trun around the debt crisis in developing countries.
The outcome of the Baker plan requested that the value of other currencies should be
increased through synchronized market interference and the US on the other hand will
reduce it government expenditure. The outcome of this monetary arrangement led to
significant decline in the dollar. This triggered any meeting of the G5 at Louvre, Paris in
February 1987 to avert the declining state of the dollar. It was against this backdrop that
the Plaza and Louvre agreements set the pace for a shift to managed floating, in which
governments mediated to address the volatility and ineptitude of current. It is pertinent
to note that current international monetary regime have remained more rickety as critics
have envisaged and have been advocating for a paradigm shift to the old pegging order
that allow for fixed exchange regime (49).
A critical analysis of the International debt crisis strategies adopted between 1982-1992
shows that 17 of the highly indebted countries listed under the Baker plan fell from 130%
of the banks capital and reserves to only 27% in the United States Banks. In the British
banks, the 17 countries fell from 85% of capital to 12%, and loan exposure of German
and French banks fell from 31% to 19% and from 135 to 23% respectively (Cline,
1995:94). Again, most of the debtor Global Southwere able to return to the international
financial markets far more rapidly after the 1980, debt crisis than they had after the
1930, debt crisis. Studies have also shown that scholars and policy makers who were
inclined to liberal economic orientation sees that first and second objectives of
international debt strategies as “successful’ to have achieve it goals.
However, scholars and policy makers inclined to the Instrumentalist orientation are of
the opinion that the objectives of the international debt strategies should be to restore
economic growth to Global Southof the world rather the debt strategies have failed to
achieve its objectives. For instance, Davis (n.d: 60) have argued that “ the major
JANUS.NET, e-journal of International Relations
e-ISSN: 1647-7251
VOL. 16, Nº. 2
November 2025-April 2026, pp. 307-328
Implications of Contemporary International Monetary System on Debt Crisis
in the Global South
Zekeri Momoh
319
creditors immediate payment capacity of the debtor nations are not their development”
Again, IMF and World Bank emphasis is on Global Southadoption of structural adjustment
programmes and repayments of their loans rather than on the promotion of development
in the developing countries.
It can be argued that any effort at ensuring a return to the old pegging exchange order
will not be encouraged especially from the beneficiaries of present international monetary
regime. The European Community developed the “snake agreement” which had limited
exchange-rate fluctuations among nations with a constricted band of +2.25 to −2.25
percent (Cohen, 2016:205). Nevertheless, the “snake agreement” failed to achieve its
goals because some European nations such as Italy, France, Ireland, and Britain national
currency were weaker when compared to “snake agreement” band. Again, there was
rising capital mobility and different macroeconomic policies among European Union
member states, oil price increase of 1973-1974 that was triggered by war in the Middle
East and the global economic crisis of 1975 (Cohen, 2016:205).
With the introduction of the European Monetary System (EMS), that only for individual
EU member states to give up their currency for the Euro help to promote monetary
stability in Europe. However, the European Union is faced with the challenge of the
European sovereign debt crisis which has arguably is affecting its monetary stability.
However, the future of the US dollars have been subjected to intense debate among
scholars in the literature of International Political economy today. One perspective argues
that the lingering United States deficits and the rising United State external debt
challenge is likely to affect the confidence of the international community in the dollar.
Another perspective has it that the given the economy of the United States in terms of
its size, political stability of the United State Democracy, liberal economic system of the
United States and the strength of the United States financial markets will ensure the
sustainability of the US dollar as an international currency.
It important to note that the Japanese Yen became an international currency in the
1970s–1980s. During this period Japan witnessed remarkable economic growth making
Japan the second largest economy in the world in 1968 and the largest creditor country
in the world by the 1980s. However, the absence of financial system openness and a
regulated capital market system till the 1990s impeded Japan competition at the
international system. The aftermath of the global financial crisis of 2008 made some
analysts to predict that the Euro will replace the US dollar as an international currency
for conversion. Despite the successes recorded by the Euro that were triggered by
political stability, low inflation and increasing foreign direct investment among others.
Without any form of obscurantism, the Euro is gaining ground in terms of its usage in
international currency for conversion. The US dollars has remained a viable international
currency for conversion within the international system.
A comparative analysis of the US dollar and Euro according to Cohen (2016:209-2010)
noted that:
In 2007, the dollar was used as a medium of exchange in 86 percent of all
foreign exchange transactions, compared with 37 and 16.5 percent for the
euro and Japanese yen, respectively. Almost two-thirds of all countries that
peg their currencies peg them to the U.S. dollar as a unit of account,
JANUS.NET, e-journal of International Relations
e-ISSN: 1647-7251
VOL. 16, Nº. 2
November 2025-April 2026, pp. 307-328
Implications of Contemporary International Monetary System on Debt Crisis
in the Global South
Zekeri Momoh
320
compared with one-third to the euro. The share of dollars as a store of value
in central bank holdings declined from 70.9 percent in 1999 to 64 percent in
2007, while the share of euros rose from 17.9 to 26.5 percent. Although the
dollar continued to be the key international currency, the euro had made
impressive gains since its creation in 1999.
From the forgoing assertion, it is obvious that despite the successes recorded by the Euro
as international currency for conversion between 1999 and 2007 due to its financial
market stability. However, the existence of divergent Euro zone has impeded the success
of the Euro against the US dollars. Today, the US dollars remain elegant as international
currency for conversion among many countries in the world. On the contrary the
continuous United States external debt is giving the increasing numbers of countries
around the world using Euro, Yen and renminbi for internation transations, is presently
put the US dollar in contention with other curreny, thereby paving way for a multipolar
international currency regime.
Nevertheless, the use of US dollar as bases for international conversion has continued to
put the global south at disadvantage position within the International monetary system.
Today, payment for international transactions and debt repayment are carried out using
the US dollars. This has perpetually put the global south in debt crisis. It is pertinent to
note that the modus operandi of the IMF and World Bank has arguably towards the global
south has not changed remarkably since the 1980s and 1990s debt crises that weaken
the capital based of the global south. The push for structural adjustment anchored on
liberal economic reforms such as subsidy removal, currency devaluation or adjustments
and austerity measures have remained unchanged over the years as the insistence of
the IMF and World Bank is arguably more harder on the global south despite the negative
effects of these liberal economic reforms that has further worsen the existing states of
poverty and underdevelopment in the global south.
The relationship between exchange rate regimes and debt accumulation in the Global
South remains one of the most contested issues in international political economy.
Exchange rate systems not only influence domestic macroeconomic stability but also
determine countries’ exposure to external shocks, capital flows, and the capacity to
manage sovereign debt. The contrasting realities of flexible regimes in advanced
economies and pegged or managed regimes in developing ones reveal deep structural
asymmetries in the global monetary system.
Flexible exchange rate regimes in the Global North, particularly in the United States, the
eurozone, and Japan, are sustained by strong institutional credibility, deep capital
markets, and the privileged position of their currencies as international reserves. These
economies are able to borrow externally in their own currencies, insulating them from
the exchange-rate-induced debt crises that plague the Global South (Ocampo, 2017).
Conversely, when developing economies adopt flexible exchange rate regimes, their
currencies often face volatility, depreciation, and capital flight during global financial
shocks. Because most of their debt is denominated in foreign currencies such as the U.S.
dollar, currency depreciation directly increases debt-servicing costs, thereby worsening
the risk of debt distress (Obstfeld & Taylor, 2017).
JANUS.NET, e-journal of International Relations
e-ISSN: 1647-7251
VOL. 16, Nº. 2
November 2025-April 2026, pp. 307-328
Implications of Contemporary International Monetary System on Debt Crisis
in the Global South
Zekeri Momoh
321
Managed exchange rate systems, such as China’s tightly controlled yuan regime, aim to
stabilize the currency, promote exports, and mitigate volatility. Although not a classical
currency board, China’s managed peg demonstrates the advantages of state control in
shielding the domestic economy from currency crises. However, when Global South
countries attempt similar arrangements, the results are often destabilizing. Argentina’s
currency board experiment in the 1990s initially attracted foreign capital by promising
exchange rate stability but ultimately collapsed under external imbalances, reserve
depletion, and unsustainable borrowing. The breakdown of such systems frequently
triggers abrupt devaluations and debt explosions (Eichengreen, 2008).
A key structural constraint faced by the Global South is the so-called “original sin”—the
inability to borrow internationally in domestic currencies (Hausmann & Panizza, 2011).
This forces developing countries to issue sovereign debt in foreign denominations,
typically dollars or euros. Under flexible regimes, depreciation raises the local-currency
cost of debt repayment. Under fixed or pegged regimes, governments are often
compelled to borrow more heavily or implement austerity to defend the exchange rate,
which in turn worsens debt sustainability when confidence wanes. Thus, exchange rate
arrangements condition the trajectory of debt by magnifying the exposure of developing
economies to foreign currency risks.
Besides, debt growth in the Global South is shaped not only by domestic policy choices
but also by the asymmetries of the international monetary system. The dominance of
Northern currencies means that monetary policies in the United States and Europe, such
as interest rate hikes, reverberate through developing economies, leading to capital
outflows, currency depreciation, and rising debt burdens (Obstfeld & Taylor, 2017). This
structural imbalance highlights the debt trap faced by the Global South: while Northern
countries enjoy monetary sovereignty, Southern economies remain vulnerable to
exchange rate fluctuations, external shocks, and dependence on foreign-currency
borrowing.
Existing exchange rate systems whether flexible in the North or managed/pegged in the
South condition the growth of debt in the Global South by mediating access to capital,
vulnerability to shocks, and the costs of debt servicing. Whereas Northern economies
benefit from reserve currency status and relative insulation, developing economies face
a structural debt trap embedded within the asymmetries of the global monetary order.
Nevertheless, the accumulation of debt in the Global South is a multidimensional
phenomenon shaped by domestic, regional, and international factors. Exchange rate
regimes play a critical role by influencing borrowing conditions, external vulnerability,
and exposure to global financial shocks. However, they operate alongside, and often
interact with, other variables such as economic policy errors, corruption, mismanagement
of public assets, and external interference. Understanding the relative importance of
exchange rate systems requires situating them within this broader political economy of
debt.
Exchange rate regimes condition the cost and sustainability of sovereign borrowing.
Flexible regimes often expose developing economies to exchange rate volatility, with
depreciations inflating the burden of foreign-currency denominated debt (Ocampo,
2017). Pegged or currency board arrangements, while promising stability, frequently
JANUS.NET, e-journal of International Relations
e-ISSN: 1647-7251
VOL. 16, Nº. 2
November 2025-April 2026, pp. 307-328
Implications of Contemporary International Monetary System on Debt Crisis
in the Global South
Zekeri Momoh
322
collapse under speculative attacks or reserve depletion, leading to sharp devaluations
and debt explosions as illustrated by Argentina in 2001 (Eichengreen, 2008). Thus,
exchange rate frameworks are structural variables that directly shape debt outcomes by
linking domestic economies to international capital markets.
Policy missteps, such as procyclical fiscal spending, overreliance on external borrowing,
and poorly sequenced liberalization, have been central to many debt crises. The Latin
American debt crisis of the 1980s, for example, was partly driven by governments
borrowing excessively during periods of low interest rates without adequate provisions
for repayment when conditions tightened (Pastor, 1989). In many African states
excessive dependence on commodity exports and failure to diversify magnified exposure
to price shocks, thereby fueling debt accumulation (Iyoha, 1999). In these contexts,
exchange rate regimes mattered, but policy mismanagement often amplified
vulnerabilities.
Corruption and poor governance contribute to debt accumulation by diverting borrowed
funds from productive investments into private hands. According to Ndikumana and
Boyce (2011), “illicit financial outflows” from Africa frequently exceed inflows of
development loans, creating a paradox where external borrowing actually undermines
development. Mismanagement of public enterprises, overvalued contracts, and non-
transparent procurement practices weaken debt sustainability by preventing external
loans from generating adequate returns. In such cases, debt crises are less about
exchange rate regimes per se and more about domestic governance failures.
External interference also plays a critical role. Structural Adjustment Programs (SAPs)
imposed by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and World Bank in the 1980s and
1990s promoted liberalization and austerity, which often deepened debt burdens rather
than alleviating them (Stiglitz, 2002). Similarly, shifts in U.S. monetary policy such as
interest rate hikes in the early 1980s and post-2020 pandemic tightening triggered
widespread debt crises in the Global South (Obstfeld & Taylor, 2017). These external
shocks interact with exchange rate regimes by precipitating capital outflows, currency
depreciations, and higher debt-servicing costs.
While exchange rate regimes are undeniably important, they are not the sole or
necessarily the dominant factor in debt accumulation. Instead, their impact is mediated
by policy choices, governance quality, and the global economic environment. For
instance, a flexible exchange rate regime may be sustainable if accompanied by prudent
fiscal management and effective institutions. Conversely, even a stable exchange rate
system may fail if loans are misappropriated or if external shocks overwhelm domestic
resilience. Thus, exchange rate regimes should be seen as one component within a
broader constellation of variables influencing debt.
The degree of importance of exchange rate regimes in shaping debt in the Global South
is significant but not absolute. They condition the external vulnerabilities of economies,
especially given the prevalence of foreign-currency denominated debt. Yet, domestic
policy errors, corruption, mismanagement, and external interference frequently play
equal or greater roles in driving indebtedness. Debt crises in the Global South are best
understood as outcomes of the interaction between structural exchange rate
vulnerabilities and broader political-economic factors, both internal and external.
JANUS.NET, e-journal of International Relations
e-ISSN: 1647-7251
VOL. 16, Nº. 2
November 2025-April 2026, pp. 307-328
Implications of Contemporary International Monetary System on Debt Crisis
in the Global South
Zekeri Momoh
323
Further, the implications of the World Bank and IMF’s structural adjustment programmes
(SAPs) and conditionalities on the Global South are profound, particularly in undermining
long-term development capacity. A growing body of evidence demonstrates that these
programmes, rather than fostering growth, often impeded investments in infrastructure,
health service delivery, and education. Empirical studies show that conditionalities, which
emphasized fiscal austerity, currency devaluation, and privatization, frequently resulted
in reduced public spending on social services. For instance, in sub-Saharan Africa, health
expenditure declined sharply under SAPs, with governments cutting subsidies for
hospitals, introducing user fees, and reducing the availability of essential medicines. This
worsened health outcomes, contributing to rising infant and maternal mortality in
countries such as Ghana, Zambia, and Nigeria during the 1980s and 1990s (El-Said &
Harrigan, 2006).
In education, SAP-related austerity measures led to reduced teacher salaries, increased
student-teacher ratios, and the introduction of tuition fees in previously free primary
education systems. A World Bank study itself admitted that these reforms created
barriers to access for the poor, especially girls, thereby exacerbating inequalities in
educational attainment (Cornia, Jolly, & Stewart, 1987).
On infrastructure, SAP-driven fiscal contraction limited governments’ ability to invest in
public works, transport networks, and power generation. Instead, privatization
conditionalities often transferred control of key sectors to foreign corporations,
sometimes resulting in higher prices and lower accessibility rather than improved
efficiency (Mosley, Harrigan, & Toye, 1995). In Nigeria, for example, World Bank-backed
privatization of utilities in the 1990s failed to expand access to electricity and water for
poorer communities, but generated significant rents for political elites (Biersteker, 1990).
Finally, scholars have argued that these conditionalities constrained state capacity. By
forcing governments to prioritize debt repayment and balance-of-payments stabilization
over domestic investment, SAPs entrenched dependence rather than building self-
sustaining development (Stiglitz, 2002). This explains why many Global South states
emerged from decades of adjustment with weaker health and education systems than
before the reforms, despite billions in loans.
Conclusion
The international monetary/financial system has been structured in a way that outcomes
of various transactions are at the detriment of the global south. This study examine the
implications of contemporary international monetary system and international debt crisis
on development in the global south. This study argues that, begining from the 1929/30s
global financial crisis, 1980s debt crisis, 1990s Asian debt crisis, the 2008/2009 global
financial crisis and the 2008 Euro financial crisis has produced various outcomes that has
had negative implications on the growth and development of the global south within the
international political economy. This study further argues that the both past and present
international monetary systems are designed to work in favour of the global north at
then detriment of the global south. Today, liberals blames the global south for faulty
domestic policies and institutioins while the historical structuralists blames it on the
dependency relationships that long existed between the global north and south that is
JANUS.NET, e-journal of International Relations
e-ISSN: 1647-7251
VOL. 16, Nº. 2
November 2025-April 2026, pp. 307-328
Implications of Contemporary International Monetary System on Debt Crisis
in the Global South
Zekeri Momoh
324
characterised by exploitation of the global south at the development of the global north.
Nevertheless, the regime theorists have argued that the internstional monetary system
exist within the frameworks of various international regimes. It was argued here that
existing international regimes especially trade and monetary/financial regimes are
designed to promote the interest of the global north and in most cases where these
frameworks are discussed and are to be implemented, using the global representative
will not be invloved. This has created a serious gap in the present internation monetary
system. Hence, this study make the following suggestions as a measure to address the
rising incidence of debt crisis in the global south.
Recommendations
a. Good governance and sound domestic economic policies are key in addressing the
challenges pose by contemporary international monetary system and international
debt crisis in the global south.
b. The global south must combat the rising incidence of corruption that has eroded the
culture of transparency, accountability and integrity in the country.
c. The global south leaders must develop the political will and be committed in ensuring
that issues of development are taken seriously and should be considered a top
priority for engagement.
d. Government in the global south should diversify their economy to ensure that focus
of the country is shifted from a monocultural economy to multisectoral economy.
This will help to ensure that a fall in the price of one commodity will not affect other
sectors of the economy.
References
Acosta, P., & Griffith-Jones, S. (2022). Reforming the global financial architecture: Debt,
development, and representation in the Global South. World Development, 157, 105942.
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.worlddev.2022.105942
Bank for International Settlements. (2025). Annual report 2025: Financial conditions in
a changing global financial system (Chapter 2).
https://www.bis.org/publ/arpdf/ar2025e2.htm
Barth, J. R., Caprio, G., Jr., & Levine, R. (2012). The evolution and impact of bank
regulations (World Bank Policy Research Working Paper No. 6288). World Bank.
https://doi.org/10.1596/1813-9450-6288
Barth, R.J. Caprio,G. Jr., & Levine, R. (2012). Guardians of Finance: Making Regulations
Work for Us Cambridge, MA: MIT Press.
Berend, T.I. (2013). Europe in Crisis: Bolt from the Blue? (New York: Routledge, 2013);
Bhattacharya, A., & Stern, N. (2023). Climate and debt crises in developing economies:
Navigating a double jeopardy. Journal of Global Policy, 14(1), 23–38.
https://doi.org/10.1111/1758-5899.13203
JANUS.NET, e-journal of International Relations
e-ISSN: 1647-7251
VOL. 16, Nº. 2
November 2025-April 2026, pp. 307-328
Implications of Contemporary International Monetary System on Debt Crisis
in the Global South
Zekeri Momoh
325
Biersteker, T. J. (1990). Reducing the role of the state in the economy: A conceptual
exploration of IMF and World Bank prescriptions. International Studies Quarterly, 34(4),
477–492. https://doi.org/10.2307/2600576
Birdsall, N. & Deese, B. (2005). “Beyond HIPC: Secure, Sustainable Debt Relief for Poor
Countries,” in Cheru, F. & Bradford, C. Jr., (eds.). The Millennium Development Goals:
Raising the Resources to Tackle World Poverty (New York: Zed Books, p. 139.
Blinder, S.A. (2013). After the Music Stopped New York: Penguin.
Blyth, M. (2013). Austerity: The History of a Dangerous Idea New York: Oxford University
Press.
Bootle, R. (2013). The Trouble with Europe (Boston, MA: Nicholas Brealey, 2014); and
Ivan T. Berend, Europe in Crisis New York: Routledge.
Boston University Global Development Policy Center, Freie Universität Berlin, & UNCTAD.
(2024). Global financial safety net tracker — Methodology guidebook.
https://www.bu.edu/gdp/files/2024/07/GFSN-Methodology-Guidebook-2024-FIN.pdf
Broz, J.L. &. Frieden, A.J. (2001). “The Political Economy of International Monetary
Relations,” in Annual Review of Political Science 4 Norwood, NJ: Ablex , pp. 317–343.
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. (2024, October). What is Bretton Woods?
The contested pasts and potential futures of international economic order.
https://carnegieendowment.org/research/2024/10/what-is-bretton-woods-the-
contested-pasts-and-potential-futures-of-international-economic-order
Carney, R. (2009). (ed.), Lessons from the Asian Financial Crisis New York: Routledge.
Cline, R.W. (1995). International Debt Reexamined Washington, DC: Institute for
International Economics, p.1.
Cline, R.W. (n.d). The Baker plan and Brady Reformation: An evaluation in Husain and
Diwan (eds) Dealing with debt crisis: A World Bank Symposium Pp:220-227.
Cohen, H.T. (2000). Global political economy; Theory and practice First Edition New York:
Longman
Cohen, H.T. (2016). Global political economy; Theory and practice Seventh Edition New
York: Routledge
Cohen, J.B. (2004). The Future of Money Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.
Cohen, J.B. (2008). Global Monetary Governance New York: Routledge,
Cohen, J.B. (2015). Currency Power: Understanding Monetary Rivalry (Princeton, NJ:
Princeton University Press, 2015);
Corbridge, S. (1993). Debt and development Oxford: Blackwell Publishers P:25, 85.
Davis, F.G. (n.d). External debt, adjustment and debt in Latin America P31.
Eichengreen, B. (2008). Globalizing Capital: A History of the International Monetary
System, 2nd ed. (Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press
JANUS.NET, e-journal of International Relations
e-ISSN: 1647-7251
VOL. 16, Nº. 2
November 2025-April 2026, pp. 307-328
Implications of Contemporary International Monetary System on Debt Crisis
in the Global South
Zekeri Momoh
326
Eichengreen, B. (2008). Globalizing capital: A history of the international monetary
system (2nd ed.). Princeton University Press.
Eichengreen, B. (2011). Exorbitant Privilege: The Rise and Fall of the Dollar (New York:
Oxford University Press.
Eichengreen, B. (2019). Globalizing capital: A history of the international monetary
system (3rd ed.). Princeton University Press.
El-Said, H., & Harrigan, J. (2006). Globalisation, international finance, and political Islam
in the Arab world. Middle East Journal, 60(3), 444–466.
European Parliament. (2025). Global currency dominance in the 21st century: Where
does the euro stand?
https://www.europarl.europa.eu/RegData/etudes/IDAN/2025/773690/ECTI_IDA(2025)
773690_EN.pdf
Federal Reserve. (2025, July 18). The international role of the U.S. dollar — 2025 edition.
https://www.federalreserve.gov/econres/notes/feds-notes/the-international-role-of-
the-u-s-dollar-2025-edition-20250718.html
Feinberg, E.R. (1988) “Latin American Debt: Renegotiating the Adjustment Burden,” in
Richard E. Feinberg and Ricardo Ffrench-Davis, eds., Development and External Debt in
Latin America: Bases for a New Consensus South Bend, IN: University of Notre Dame
Press, pp. 57–58.
Feldstein, M. (1994) (ed.). American Economic Policy in the 1980s Chicago, IL: University
of Chicago Press p. 737.
Ffrench-Davis, R. (1988). “External Debt, Adjustment, and Development in Latin
America,” in Feinberg, E.R. & Ffrench-Davis, R. (eds.). Development and External Debt
in Latin America: Bases for a New Consensus South Bend, IN: University of Notre Dame
Press, p. 31.
Fishow, A. (1985).“Lessons from the Past: Capital Markets During the 19th Century and
the interwar Period”, International Organisation 39-3 (Summer), pp.383-439
Fratianni, M., Savona, P.,& Kirton, J.J. (2002). (eds.) Governing Global Finance: New
Challenges, G7 and IMF Contributions Burlington, VT: Ashgate
Gallagher, K. P., & Kozul-Wright, R. (2021). The case for a new Bretton Woods:
Reforming the global financial system to address debt and inequality. Development and
Change, 52(5), 1103–1121. https://doi.org/10.1111/dech.12657
Hausmann, R., & Panizza, U. (2011). Redemption or abstinence? Original sin, currency
mismatches, and countercyclical policies in the new millennium. Journal of Globalization
and Development, 2(1), 1–35. https://doi.org/10.2202/1948-1837.1111
Helleiner, E. (2014). The Status Quo Crisis New York: Oxford University Press.
Helleiner, E. and Kirshner, J. (2009) (eds.) The Future of the Dollar (Ithaca, NY: Cornell
University Press
Helleiner, E. and Kirshner, J. (2015) (eds.) The Great Wall of Money: Power and Politics
in China’s International Monetary Relations Ithaca, NY: Cornell University Press.
JANUS.NET, e-journal of International Relations
e-ISSN: 1647-7251
VOL. 16, Nº. 2
November 2025-April 2026, pp. 307-328
Implications of Contemporary International Monetary System on Debt Crisis
in the Global South
Zekeri Momoh
327
Herman, B., Ocampo, A.J. & Spiegel, S. (2010) (eds.). Overcoming Developing Country
Debt Crises New York: Oxford University Press.
International Monetary Fund. (2023). 2021 Special Drawing Rights allocation — Ex-post
assessment report (PPEA/2023/035). https://www.imf.org/-
/media/Files/Publications/PP/2023/English/PPEA2023035.ashx
International Monetary Fund. (2025). External sector report 2025 — Chapter 2:
International monetary system. https://www.imf.org/-
/media/Files/Publications/ESR/2025/English/ch2.ashx
Iyoha, M. A. (1999). External debt and economic growth in sub-Saharan African
countries: An econometric study. African Economic Research Consortium (AERC)
Research Paper 90. Nairobi: AERC.
James, H. (1996). International Monetary Cooperation Since Bretton Woods New York:
Oxford University Press.
Kentikelenis, A., & Stubbs, T. H. (2023). Conditionality and the persistence of austerity:
IMF lending in the twenty-first century. Review of International Political Economy, 30(2),
456–478. https://doi.org/10.1080/09692290.2022.2095327
Kirshner, J. (2014). American Power after the Financial Crisis Ithaca, NY: Cornell
University Press.
Kuhn, G.M & Guzman, P.J. (1990). Multilateral official debt rescheduling. Recent
Experience. World economic and Financial Surveys Washington D.C. November. p7.
Lewis, M. (2011). The Big Short New York: W.W. Norton & Co.
Lindert, H.P. & Morton, J.P (1989). How sovereign debt has worked in Sachs, D.J. (ed.)
Developing country debt and economic performamce Vol. 1 The International Financial
System Chicago: University of Chicago Press.
Marsh, D. (2013). Europe’s Deadlock New Haven, CT: Yale University Press.
Mosley, P., Harrigan, J., & Toye, J. (1995). Aid and power: The World Bank and policy-
based lending (Vol. 1). Routledge.
Ndikumana, L., & Boyce, J. K. (2011). Africa’s odious debts: How foreign loans and capital
flight bled a continent. Zed Books.
Obstfeld, M., & Taylor, A. M. (2017). Global capital markets: Integration, crisis, and
growth (2nd ed.). Cambridge University Press.
Ocampo, J. A. (2017). Resetting the international monetary (non)system. Oxford
University Press.
Ocampo, J. A., & Bértola, L. (2022). Global asymmetries and debt vulnerabilities in the
Global South. Cambridge Journal of Economics, 46(3), 541–563.
https://doi.org/10.1093/cje/beac009
Pastor, M. (1989). Latin America, the debt crisis, and the International Monetary Fund.
Latin American Perspectives, 16(1), 79–110.
https://doi.org/10.1177/0094582X8901600105
JANUS.NET, e-journal of International Relations
e-ISSN: 1647-7251
VOL. 16, Nº. 2
November 2025-April 2026, pp. 307-328
Implications of Contemporary International Monetary System on Debt Crisis
in the Global South
Zekeri Momoh
328
Pempel, T. J. (1999). (ed.), The Politics of the Asian Economic Crisis Ithaca, NY: Cornell
University Press.
Pisany-Ferry, J. (2011). The Euro Crisis and Its Aftermath New York: Oxford University
Press.
Porter, T. (2005). Globalization and Finance Malden, MA: Polity Press.
Prasad, S.E (2014).The Dollar Trap Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press
Rajan, G.R. (2010). Fault Lines Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.
Reuters. (2024, May 15). IMF board approves members to channel reserve assets to
MDBs for hybrid instruments. https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/imf-board-
approves-members-channel-reserve-assets-mdbs-hybrid-instruments-2024-05-15
Rieffel, (n.d). The role of the Paris club in managing debt problems p 4-14.
Rieffel, L. (2003). Restructuring Sovereign Debt: The Case for Ad Hoc Machinery
Washington, DC: Brookings Institution Press.
Sach, J. (1989). “Making the Brady plan work” Foreign Affairs 68-3 Summer 1989. P87-
92.
Stiglitz, J. E. (2002). Globalization and its discontents. W. W. Norton.
Thirkell-White, B. (2005). The IMF and the Politics of Financial Globalization: From the
Asian Crisis to a New International Financial Architecture? New York: Palgrave.
UNCTAD & Bretton Woods Project. (2025). Decoding IMF accounting: Unlocking the full
potential of SDRs. https://www.brettonwoodsproject.org/2025/04/decoding-imf-
accounting-unlocking-the-full-potential-of-sdrs/
Verdun, A. (ed.) (2002). The Euro: European Integration Theory and Economic and
Monetary
Webb, C.M. (1995).The Political Economy of Policy Coordination: International
Adjustment Since 1945 Ithaca, NY: Cornell University Press.
OBSERVARE
Universidade Autónoma de Lisboa
e-ISSN: 1647-7251
VOL. 16, Nº. 2
novembro 2025-abril 2026
329
A PROJEÇÃO INTERNACIONAL DE ANGOLA: CONDICIONANTES INTERNOS DA
POLÍTICA EXTERNA E DA POLÍTICA DE DEFESA
NATHALY XAVIER SCHUTZ
nathalyschutz@unipampa.edu.br
Doutora em Ciência Política pela Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul (UFRGS). Professora
Associada de Relações Internacionais na Universidade Federal do Pampa, Unipampa (Brasil).
Professora do Programa de Pós-Graduação em Relações Internacionais da Universidade Federal
de Santa Maria (UFSM) – Brasil.
Resumo
Angola é um Estado de grande relevância na África Austral e Central. Após o acordo de paz,
em 2002, entre as forças do governo, o Movimento Popular para a Libertação de Angola
(MPLA), e da oposição, a União Nacional para a Independência Total de Angola (UNITA),
emerge como uma importante liderança africana. A compreensão da sua política externa e
sua política de defesa implicam, primeiramente, entender a influência que os fatores
domésticos, em especial a permanência do MPLA no governo, tem na formulação dessas
políticas e nos objetivos impostos. O objetivo do presente artigo é analisar essa relação,
utilizando o fim da guerra civil, em 2002, e a saída do poder de Dos Santos, em 2017, como
momentos de mudança política interna decisivos. Espera-se demonstrar como a inserção
internacional de Angola está pautada, em grande medida, por interesses internos,
principalmente o desejo do MPLA de manter-se no poder.
Palavras-chave
África, Angola, política de defesa, política externa, potência regional.
Abstract
Angola is a highly influential country in Southern and Central Africa. Following the 2002 peace
agreement between government forces, the Popular Movement for the Liberation of Angola
(MPLA), and the opposition, the National Union for the Total Independence of Angola (UNITA),
it has emerged as an important African leader. Understanding its foreign and defence policies
requires, first and foremost, an understanding of the influence that domestic factors,
particularly the MPLA's continued hold on power, have on the formulation of these policies
and the objectives set. The aim of this article is to analyse this relationship, using the end of
the civil war in 2002 and Dos Santos' departure from power in 2017 as decisive moments of
internal political change. It is hoped to demonstrate how Angola's international integration is
largely guided by internal interests, particularly the MPLA's desire to remain in power.
Keywords
Africa, Angola, defense policy, foreign policy, regional power.
Como citar este artigo
Schutz, Nathaly Xavier (2025). A Projeção Internacional de Angola: Condicionantes Internos da
Política Externa e da Política de Defesa. Janus.net, e-journal of international relations. VOL. 16,
Nº. 2, novembro 2025-abril 2026, pp. 329-345. DOI https://doi.org/10.26619/1647-7251.16.2.18
Artigo submetido em 16 de maio de 2025 e aceite para publicação em 4 de setembro de
2025.
JANUS.NET, e-journal of International Relations
e-ISSN: 1647-7251
VOL. 16, Nº. 2
Novembro 2025-abril 2026, pp. 329-345
A Projeção Internacional de Angola: Condicionantes Internos da Política Externa
e da Política de Defesa
Nathaly Xavier Schutz
330
A PROJEÇÃO INTERNACIONAL DE ANGOLA: CONDICIONANTES
INTERNOS DA POLÍTICA EXTERNA E DA POLÍTICA DE DEFESA
1
NATHALY XAVIER SCHUTZ
Considerações iniciais
Angola surge, a partir de 2002, com o encerramento do conflito em seu território, como
uma importante liderança africana. Ao contrário da África do Sul, que é reconhecida fora
da África como um polo de poder, mas enfrenta resistência entre os vizinhos, Angola
goza de uma significativa legitimidade entre os africanos, o que a coloca em uma posição
singular, especialmente na África Austral e Central. Seu posicionamento geopolítico, na
conexão entre essas duas regiões do Continente, também a credencia como Estado de
suma importância para as relações intra-africanas.
O Estado tem um histórico de ingerência externa e conflito que, ainda hoje, impacta na
sua construção. Ao longo do processo de colonização da África pelos Estados europeus,
que se inicia com o estabelecimento de entrepostos litorâneos ainda no século XV e
culmina com a ocupação efetiva de quase todo o Continente
2
no final do século XIX, o
território angolano foi controlado por Portugal. A luta pela independência, que é
conquistada em 1975, durou quase 15 anos, e imediatamente após, tem início a guerra
civil entre as forças do governo, o Movimento Popular de Libertação de Angola (MPLA),
e a oposição, a União para a Independência Total de Angola (UNITA), que se encerrará
apenas em 2002.
Mesmo que, desde 2008, tenham acontecido eleições periódicas e que estas tenham sido
reconhecidas pelas missões de observação eleitoral de várias organizações
internacionais, ainda que questionadas pela oposição, a permanência no poder do MPLA,
sem dúvida, é um aspecto a ser considerado. A ausência de alternância no poder é uma
problemática comum a vários países africanos. Existe o multipartidarismo e eleições
periódicas, mas o mesmo partido mantem-se no poder. Partido esse, que, na maioria
das vezes, tem sua origem em um movimento de libertação, como no caso de Angola.
Essa permanência de uma mesma elite política no poder desde a independência se
materializa em uma ausência de separação clara entre partido, governo e Estado. E isso
se reflete na formulação das políticas públicas, inclusive a política externa e a de defesa.
Além disso, como destaca Clapham (2012) o fato de os partidos serem criados a partir
1
O presente trabalho foi realizado com apoio da Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível
Superior - Brasil (CAPES) - Código de Financiamento 001.
2
É importante lembrar que a Etiópia logrou resistir independente.
JANUS.NET, e-journal of International Relations
e-ISSN: 1647-7251
VOL. 16, Nº. 2
Novembro 2025-abril 2026, pp. 329-345
A Projeção Internacional de Angola: Condicionantes Internos da Política Externa
e da Política de Defesa
Nathaly Xavier Schutz
331
de movimentos de libertação leva a uma subordinação das forças de repressão ao partido
e não ao Estado.
Na verdade, em muitos dos casos, esse controle do aparato coercivo é ainda mais
anterior, no próprio processo de colonização. Aeby (2019) argumenta que alguns dos
partidos no poder em África assumem as estruturas de coerção deixadas pelo colonizador
e as utilizam para se manter no poder, através da perseguição de grupos de oposição e
restrição das liberdades.
Somado a isso, tem-se a problemática da construção de um sistema livre e em igualdades
de condição antes, durante e depois do pleito. Quando não há essa clara separação entre
partido e Estado, a oposição tende a ficar em desvantagem, já que, como lembra
Thompson (2010), tanto a própria fraqueza das instituições quanto as já mencionadas
práticas deliberadas adotadas pelo partido que está no poder tornam o ambiente
assimétrico em condições de competição.
Essa falta de alternância no poder, para além de um problema democrático, também é
reflexo de um problema partidário-institucional. Os partidos em Angola, e em África de
um modo geral, tem a característica de estarem centrados em figuras emblemáticas e
possuírem bases ideológicas frágeis ou já pouco conectadas com as realidades atuais dos
Estados (Schutz, 2024). Isso, ao mesmo tempo em que facilita a manutenção do partido
que está no poder, também enfraquece a oposição, já que não a identificação da
população com os partidos e, portanto, não há mobilização para a mudança no poder.
Tanto a política externa quanto a política de defesa angolanas refletem as
particularidades do seu contexto interno, ao mesmo tempo em que tentam responder às
demandas do sistema internacional e aos anseios de ocupar um papel de maior destaque
na África. Esta pesquisa, assim, tem como problema norteador compreender a relação
existente entre as variáveis domésticas, em específico a manutenção do poder do MPLA,
e a construção das políticas externa e de defesa, bem como a articulação existente entre
elas.
Ancora-se nas perspectivas de análise de política externa que defendem o
condicionamento da formulação dessas políticas não só aos objetivos do Estado, mas
também aos fatores históricos e os aspectos domésticos. Hill (2003) irá afirmar que a
estrutura constitucional e a distribuição e equilíbrio entre os poderes (executivo,
legislativo e judiciário) do Estado irão influenciar diretamente na concepção da política
externa.
Ainda sobre os as questões internas, tem-se o que se pode chamar de grandes mudanças
ou rupturas, como processos revolucionários, guerras civis ou golpes de Estado (Halliday,
1999). Essas mudanças teriam um peso ainda maior, impactando não só na formulação
da política externa, mas na viabilidade da sua implementação. Soma-se a esses aspectos,
a própria disponibilidade de recursos do Estado (Bembe, 2016).
Parte-se do pressuposto de que a presença do MPLA no governo de Angola, desde a
independência, criou uma ausência de clara separação entre interesses do partido e do
Estado, e que isso também se reflete nas políticas externa e de defesa. Além disso, o
histórico do partido, originário de um movimento de libertação imprime características
específicas a essa elite política, entre outras coisas, uma grande participação dos
militares em várias esferas políticas e decisórias.
JANUS.NET, e-journal of International Relations
e-ISSN: 1647-7251
VOL. 16, Nº. 2
Novembro 2025-abril 2026, pp. 329-345
A Projeção Internacional de Angola: Condicionantes Internos da Política Externa
e da Política de Defesa
Nathaly Xavier Schutz
332
A metodologia adotada é qualitativa com abordagem histórica-comparativa, empregando
a técnica de comparação de um mesmo caso em períodos temporais distintos. A pesquisa
tem caráter descritivo e explicativo. Será aplicada a análise de fontes bibliográficas
primárias e referências secundárias já trabalhadas sobre o tema.
A primeira parte do artigo será dedicada a compreender a estabilização do país após o
encerramento da guerra civil em 2002, em especial os processos eleitorais e as mudanças
nas forças políticas de oposição. Em um segundo momento, será analisada a saída de
José Eduardo dos Santos do poder para dar lugar a João Lourenço e as eventuais
mudanças que decorreram dessa troca de liderança. Por fim, a última seção será
dedicada a compreender a evolução das políticas externa e de defesa de Angola nas
últimas duas décadas, com o intuito de compreender como essas alterações internas
interferiram na projeção internacional do país e os desafios teóricos dessa análise.
Pacificação e reordenamento
Angola inicia uma nova fase no seu processo de consolidação estatal a partir de 2002,
quando tem fim o conflito interno entre as forças que estavam no poder (MPLA) e a
UNITA. O Memorandum de Entendimento de Luena Complementar ao Protocolo de
Lusaka pôs fim aos quase trinta anos de guerra civil em território angolano e inaugura
um período de paz nunca antes experimentado pelo país desde que o início do processo
de colonização.
A partir desse momento, há a expectativa de que o país avance no caminho da
democratização, com multipartidarismo, eleições periódicas e fortalecimento das
instituições. É forçoso lembrar que, em 1991, o Acordo de Bicesse, que estabeleceram o
cessar-fogo entre MPLA e UNITA, também determinaram a realização de eleições
multipartidárias, que ocorrem em 1992. O resultado, contudo, não é reconhecido pela
oposição, ainda que a Missão de Observação Eleitoral das Nações Unidas tenha atestado
pleito como legítimo, e a guerra civil é retomada.
Os primeiros anos pós-Luena seguem conturbados e as primeiras eleições
3
, para o poder
legislativo, vão ocorrer apenas em 2008. O MPLA conquista mais de 80% das cadeiras,
refletindo a influência ainda exercida do Partido sobre as instituições. Como lembra Vidal
(2024), o longo período entre o fim do conflito e a realização das eleições permitiu ao
MPLA organizar e controlar grande parte das forças e processos preparatórios, incluindo
a legislação eleitoral e o recenseamento.
Outro marco importante é, em 2010, a promulgação de uma nova Constituição, que
institui a eleição indireta para o Chefe do Executivo; o Presidente, assim, passa a ser
indicado pelo Parlamento. Importante destacar que a Constituição é aprovada por quase
unanimidade, após a UNITA recusar-se a participar da votação.
É no bojo dessa nova legislação que ocorre um novo pleito em 2012. Mais uma vez, o
MPLA sai vitorioso, e José Eduardo dos Santos se mantém na Presidência. É importante
registrar que se teve a participação de um novo partido de oposição, a Convergência
3
Consoante o Acordo de Paz firmado em 2002, as eleições deveriam ocorrer em 2004.
JANUS.NET, e-journal of International Relations
e-ISSN: 1647-7251
VOL. 16, Nº. 2
Novembro 2025-abril 2026, pp. 329-345
A Projeção Internacional de Angola: Condicionantes Internos da Política Externa
e da Política de Defesa
Nathaly Xavier Schutz
333
Ampla para Salvação de Angola – Coligação Eleitoral (CASA-CE), formada a partir de
dissidências da UNITA.
A manutenção da periodicidade das eleições, ainda que não seja garantia de democracia,
é uma sinalização importante. Na visão de Solar-Crespo (2019), existem três fatores a
serão determinantes no processo de democratização dos países africanos. O primeiro diz
respeito ao acordo político estabelecido quando o grupo dominante sobe ao poder;
importa, nesse caso, se há ingerência de atores externos e se há mobilização efetiva da
sociedade civil. O segundo aspecto refere-se ao nível de predominância do movimento
de libertação vitorioso em relação aos demais. Por fim, é importante que haja uma clara
separação de poderes e o estabelecimento de limites constitucionais ao poder do Chefe
do Executivo.
O contexto angolano, nessa perspectiva, é bastante preocupante. Para além das
alterações da Constituição, que, entre outras coisas, extinguiu a eleição direta para
Presidente, a relação bastante desigual entre MPLA e UNITA – seja no imediato
pacificação, seja nas disputas eleitorais posteriores – pode ser um fator de
desestabilização e de dificuldade de avanço democrático.
O fim da Era “Dos Santos”
Como previsto na legislação, em 2017 são realizadas eleições parlamentares. O pleito é
de grande relevância para a história angolana. Isso porque, depois de quase 40 anos no
poder, José Eduardo dos Santos deixa de ser o candidato do MPLA. No seu lugar, assume
João Lourenço, antigo Ministro da Defesa e antigo Vice-Presidente do Partido. A mudança
de candidato, que já havia sido anunciada no ano anterior, trouxe, tanto para a população
como um todo, quanto para os partidos de oposição, a visualização de uma real
possibilidade de mudança. Na visão de Matsimbe e Domingos (2018), o pleito foi marcado
por uma campanha mais acirrada da oposição e uma participação mais ativa da sociedade
civil.
A vitória do MPLA já não foi tão expressiva quanto nas eleições anteriores, ficando com
menos de 75% das cadeiras, o que, nominalmente, representou 25 a menos que na
eleição anterior (Morris, 2017). A subida ao poder de um novo governante, ainda que do
mesmo Partido, gerou uma significativa expectativa de mudança para o povo angolano,
assim como para a comunidade internacional.
Não se pode olvidar, contudo, que a saída de Dos Santos da Presidência não significou
sua retirada da cena política angolana. Dos Santos continuou ocupando a presidência do
Partido por mais um ano
4
e, antes de deixar a chefia do Executivo, garantiu, com
mudanças nos períodos de mandato de cargos, que seus aliados se mantivessem no
governo em posições estratégicas, em especial nas forças de segurança (Almeida e
Satula, 2018).
Além disso, como destacam Herbst e Mills (2018), não necessariamente a troca da figura
do governante significa alguma mudança efetiva. Para que ela ocorra, é preciso que
outros atores políticos e burocráticos também sejam modificados, o que, como será visto,
4
Foi a primeira vez que a presidência do MPLA não foi ocupada pelo Presidente do país.
JANUS.NET, e-journal of International Relations
e-ISSN: 1647-7251
VOL. 16, Nº. 2
Novembro 2025-abril 2026, pp. 329-345
A Projeção Internacional de Angola: Condicionantes Internos da Política Externa
e da Política de Defesa
Nathaly Xavier Schutz
334
não foi o caso de Angola. A mudança do Presidente, assim, sem a mudança do Partido,
tem poucas chances de resultar em transformações expressivas.
Lourenço inicia seu mandato fazendo algumas mudanças e dando sinais de que adotaria
uma nova postura no governo. Nesse sentido, são emblemáticos: a retirada da filha de
Dos Santos, Isabel dos Santos, da presidência da SONANGOL e a mudança de grande
parte dos governantes locais (Augé, 2018; Almeida, 2019).
As mudanças mais profundas, especialmente aquelas relacionadas às forças de
segurança, todavia, não acontecem. Como destacam Bye, Igles e Orre (2021), as forças
militares e de segurança são um dos principais círculos de poder ao redor do Presidente,
com uma grande influência, não só na política de defesa, mas também na política externa
e em outros âmbitos domésticos. E, nesse setor, Lourenço mantém os membros já
conhecidos da gestão de Dos Santos, inclusive combatentes da luta de libertação, o que
para Augé (2019), evidencia a sua ligação com as bases tradicionais do Partido.
É importante ressaltar que Lourenço também vai promover algumas alterações no
próprio Partido. A mais notória envolve a ampliação, tanto do Comitê Central quanto do
Bureau Político, com a nomeação de novos membros. Para Vines (2021), isso reflete a
intenção de Lourenço de exercer maior controle do MPLA, reduzindo a proporção de
pessoas ligadas diretamente ao Dos Santos.
Em 2022, temos novas eleições e, mais uma vez, uma vitória do MPLA, mantendo
Lourenço na Presidência. O desempenho do MPLA, todavia, foi o pior desde que se
iniciaram as eleições periódicas, garantindo apenas 51% dos votos e 124 cadeiras no
Parlamento. Destaque-se que a eleição acontece em um cenário bastante turbulento,
marcado pela morte recente de José Eduardo dos Santos
5
(Schutz, 2024).
O segundo mandato de Lourenço já começa sem grandes expectativas de mudança. A
população angolana demonstra desgaste e descontentamento depois de vários anos de
recessão econômica, somados a crise internacional gerada pela pandemia de COVID-19
em 2020. Além disso, as medidas anticorrupção, que tinham sido a grande simbologia
de renovação do primeiro governo de Lourenço, seguiam concentradas apenas na família
Dos Santos, sem avançar para os setores militares, o que era o anseio de grande parte
dos angolanos (Schutz, 2024).
Reinserção angolana
A compreensão da inserção angolana no sistema internacional passa por um
entendimento prévio de como os Estados africanos enfrentam os desafios de se
consolidarem, ao mesmo tempo que almejam se projetar internacionalmente. As teorias
tradicionais de relações internacionais, em especial as da vertente realista, concentram
a sua atenção nas ameaças externas do Estado. Os Estados africanos, contudo, estão
inseridos em um contexto distinto e muito mais complexo, no qual, grande parte das
ameaças tem suas origens dentro das fronteiras nacionais.
5
É igualmente emblemático que UNITA tenha conquistado 44% dos assentos, seu melhor resultado em um
pleito e, em Luanda, ter garantido 63% dos votos, quase o dobro do MPLA que, na capital, fez apenas 33%
dos votos.
JANUS.NET, e-journal of International Relations
e-ISSN: 1647-7251
VOL. 16, Nº. 2
Novembro 2025-abril 2026, pp. 329-345
A Projeção Internacional de Angola: Condicionantes Internos da Política Externa
e da Política de Defesa
Nathaly Xavier Schutz
335
É o que alguns autores irão denominar de dilema de segurança interno
6
. A preocupação
central do Estado não está no vizinho ou no temor de algum ataque externo, mas sim
nas dificuldades de consolidar a soberania doméstica e conter forças insurgentes ou que
ameacem a estabilidade internamente. Ayoob (2002), em sua análise que ficou conhecida
como realismo subalterno, irá defender que, no caso dos Estados periféricos, as
estruturas internas e externas estão intimamente interrelacionadas, e que as ingerências
externas terão interferência nesse processo de construção do Estado.
Nos Estados africanos como um todo, mas, mais especificamente no caso angolano, o
processo de colonização, evidentemente, tem um grande peso nessas dificuldades de
consolidação estatal e, por consequente, projeção internacional. Para além da própria
ocupação do território, tem-se os conflitos originários desses processos, tanto de
independência quanto a posterior guerra civil, marcados por forte interferência de outros
Estados além de Portugal, notadamente Estados Unidos da América, União
Soviética/Rússia, China e África do Sul.
A própria ideia de que o Estado é a única fonte possível de garantir os seus interesses,
ou seja, a ideia de que apenas o grupo político que está no poder gozará os seus direitos,
é uma fonte de instabilidade e conflito (Ngubane, 2004). Uma parcela significativa dos
países africanos, a exemplo do que acontece em Angola, tem um mesmo partido no
poder desde a independência, o que, como já foi visto, não só é um problema do ponto
de vista da construção da democracia, mas também uma fonte de instabilidade e conflito
doméstico.
Mais especificamente quando se trata da análise da política externa, o que também pode
ser ampliado para a política de defesa, deve-se ter em mente as dinâmicas específicas
que envolvem o processo decisório e de formulação de políticas. A dificuldade de
separação entre Estado e governo, ou Estado e partido, já mencionada anteriormente,
também traz à tona a peculiaridade das figuras políticas de destaque, os big men ou
warlords (Dunn, 2001; Reno, 2001). A própria fragilidade das instituições e da
democracia, gera uma centralização do governo em torno de um líder e não do Estado
(Matlosa, 2010).
Essas lideranças políticas, no caso de Angola, em especial José Eduardo dos Santos,
utilizam das instituições e políticas estatais para garantir a sua manutenção no poder.
Nesses casos, a própria fragilidade do Estado, contrastando com a sua soberania externa
formalmente reconhecida, é percebida como um ativo valioso. A permanência no poder,
assim, é vendida como uma necessidade e a existência de conflitos e instabilidades
justificam essa figura forte de liderança.
Sob outra perspectiva, trata-se de garantir a segurança do regime, e não a segurança
do Estado (Clark, 2001). Quem governa, assim, age preocupado com as possíveis
ameaças ao seu poder o que, não necessariamente, seria uma ameaça ao Estado. Deriva
daí, por exemplo, a tolerância e o favorecimento a grupos internos que, em muitos dos
6
Em uma alusão ao termo “dilema de segurança”, conceito central das abordagens realistas de relações
internacionais e que faz referência ao fato de que, quanto mais um Estado amplia seus recursos militares
para se sentir seguro, mais inseguro o sistema fica, tendo em vista que os demais Estados, sentindo-se
ameaçados e sem saber as intenções do outro, irão reagir, também ampliando suas forças e criando uma
escalada de violência.
JANUS.NET, e-journal of International Relations
e-ISSN: 1647-7251
VOL. 16, Nº. 2
Novembro 2025-abril 2026, pp. 329-345
A Projeção Internacional de Angola: Condicionantes Internos da Política Externa
e da Política de Defesa
Nathaly Xavier Schutz
336
casos, significa a manutenção de estruturas de poder oriundas do próprio processo de
colonização.
É o caso de Angola e da relação de Lourenço com as elites militares do MPLA. Como
enfatiza Clark (2001:95):
[…] o que o governante africano típico precisa com mais urgência para
garantir seu regime no poder? Mais importante ainda, ele precisa da boa
vontade ou tolerância daqueles que estão em posição de ameaçar
diretamente o controle de seu regime sobre o aparato estatal. [Isso] inclui
membros importantes das forças armadas nacionais, os líderes de potenciais
grupos insurgentes domésticos, os líderes de estados vizinhos (por meio de
seu potencial apoio a insurgências) e os governantes de grandes potências
no exterior.
Fica evidente, assim, porque as transformações e mudanças esperadas na condução do
governo angolano com a troca de dirigentes foram pouco expressivas. Isso não se
restringe ao campo das políticas domésticas, mas também da política externa e de
defesa.
Ao longo dos anos, a política externa angolana respondeu, em grande medida, às
necessidades do MPLA, ameaçado pela UNITA, de se manter no poder. Da mesma forma,
a política de defesa também era pensada sob uma perspectiva de ameaça doméstica.
Isso impacta diretamente na própria estruturação das Forças Armadas Angolanas, com
uma forte preponderância do Exército sobre as demais forças.
É importante lembrar, também, a própria origem das Forças Armadas Angolanas, que
residem no Exército Popular de Libertação de Angola, do MPLA. No bojo dos Acordos de
Bicesse, se previa a desmobilização e formação de forças armadas únicas (as Forças
Armadas Angolanas), num processo a ser concluído até as eleições de 1992; o não
reconhecimento do pleito de 1992 e a retomada das hostilidades comprometem o projeto
de estruturação das FAA, a raiz das suas origens, contudo, está nesse processo
(Bernardino, 2013).
A encerramento da guerra civil, em 2002, é o primeiro grande marco de mudança na
política externa angolana. Até então, a principal preocupação do governo angolano, e
que se refletia diretamente não só na política externa mas também na política de defesa,
era conter as forças da UNITA. Isso traduzia-se em uma ação externa voltada para
impedir os auxílios externos da UNITA e isolar eventuais apoiadores do grupo.
A pacificação permitiu uma reestruturação das políticas pensadas por Luanda. É
importante destacar, contudo, que isso não significou que o Partido tenha abandonado a
sua prioridade, ou seja, manter-se no poder. O que se altera são os meios e estratégias
pensadas para esse fim. A inserção angolana no sistema internacional, desta forma, é
vista como um instrumento de fortalecimento e construção de legitimidade.
No imediato pós-2002, grande parte dos esforços angolanos estarão concentrados na
melhoria da imagem internacional do país com dois objetivos específicos: do ponto de
vista econômico, atrair investidores externos através da garantia de um ambiente estável
e seguro para aas atividades econômicas e, assim, estimular o crescimento econômico;
JANUS.NET, e-journal of International Relations
e-ISSN: 1647-7251
VOL. 16, Nº. 2
Novembro 2025-abril 2026, pp. 329-345
A Projeção Internacional de Angola: Condicionantes Internos da Política Externa
e da Política de Defesa
Nathaly Xavier Schutz
337
no âmbito político, demonstrar que o país estava seguindo no caminho da democracia e
que os processos e instituições estavam sendo fortalecidos.
A política externa nesse momento, assim, tinha uma característica de normalização e
(re)construção de parcerias. Essencialmente, o objetivo era assegurar que Angola não
era mais um país em guerra e que estava evoluindo em uma transição gradual para a
paz e a democracia. Nesse sentido, Roque (2013) afirma que o governo de Dos Santos
é caracterizado pela preocupação em reconstruir a imagem do regime liderado pelo
MPLA, ao mesmo tempo em que almeja tornar-se um Estado com maior influênica
regional.
Também é um marco, a partir de 2002, a maior ênfase que se passa a dar à diplomacia
como instrumento de promoção do desenvolvimento (Ginga, 2014). É importante
lembrar que a pacificação do território, ao mesmo tempo em que significa a resolução de
um grande problema interno, também representa a necessidade de lidar com outros
desafios, notadamente, as condições socioeconômicas da população.
É evidente a conexão entre o contexto doméstico e as eventuais mudanças na política
externa; mas é igualmente importante compreender como os contextos regionais e
internacionais também foram considerados. Entre os vizinhos, a conjuntura, como
lembra Malaquias (2011), era bastante favorável, levando em conta uma África do Sul
muito mais cooperativa desde o encerramento do apartheid e a volta ao poder de Denis
Sassou Nguesso na República do Congo, além, obviamente, da queda de Mobuto, na
República Democrática do Congo.
Do ponto de vista internacional, Angola valia-se da importante e longeva parceria com a
China, que seguia bastante fortalecida. Além disso, a cooperação sul-sul estava em
franca expansão, possibilitando outras relações, como com o Brasil. Garantia-se, desta
forma, a ampliação das relações comerciais e de investimento, aproveitando uma
conjuntura internacional também favorável.
Essa relação entre o doméstico e o internacional, tão evidente quando se trata do caso
angolano, também tem reflexos na intersecção entre política externa e política de defesa.
Sobre essa questão, um aspecto em específico merece maior atenção: a participação dos
militares, ainda que da reserva, tanto na formulação quanto na execução da política
externa.
Esse papel desempenhado pelos militares em outras esferas, em parte, é um reflexo da
fragilidade das demais instituições angolanas, nesse caso, o corpo diplomático, preteridas
ao longo das décadas de conflitos, em favor das forças de segurança (Castellano, 2015).
Não se pode olvidar, todavia, que as relações entre força e diplomacia são históricas.
Aron (2002) já trazia à tona a importância desses dois instrumentos e a impossibilidade
de um Estado atuar no sistema internacional sem equilibrar esses dois aspectos,
simbolizados por ela na figura do soldado e do diplomata.
Não se trata, portanto, de excluir os militares da diplomacia; sua presença é desejada e
necessária. O que é preciso é que essa participação, de fato, esteja inserida em uma
política externa e de defesa pensadas e concatenadas para a inserção qualificada de
Angola, e não baseada nos interesses pessoais da elite militar. Ginga (2014), por
exemplo, defende o que ele chama de diplomacia securitária, com a participação ativa
das Forças Armadas Angolanas na diplomacia, como no caso das operações de paz
JANUS.NET, e-journal of International Relations
e-ISSN: 1647-7251
VOL. 16, Nº. 2
Novembro 2025-abril 2026, pp. 329-345
A Projeção Internacional de Angola: Condicionantes Internos da Política Externa
e da Política de Defesa
Nathaly Xavier Schutz
338
conduzidas por organizações africanas, como União Africana (UA) e Comunidade para o
Desenvolvimento da África Austral (SADC).
É também no âmbito da defesa e segurança que Angola tem demonstrado esforços de
aproximação com vizinhos, o que também está relacionado com sua intenção de
posicionar-se como um líder regional. Para Almeida (2016), Angola surge como uma
importante, se não a principal, força estabilizadora na região africana centro-austral.
Uma relação, em especial, merece maior destaque: Guiné-Bissau. A presença angolana
em Guiné-Bissau, é multifatorial, já que Angola tem investimentos importantes nos país
e, auxiliou, em 2010, no processo de reforma do setor de segurança, dentro de um
esforço mais amplo de estabilização (Roque, 2013). Vale ressaltar, contudo, que esse
auxílio enfrentou problemas e a Missão de Angola na Guiné-Bissau (MISSANG) encerrou-
se depois de um ano.
7
Para alguns autores, essa relação demonstra tanto os desafios que Angola enfrenta na
região, quanto a postura de liderança que deseja demonstrar. De acordo com Roque
(2013:7), a experiência possibilitou que Luanda entendesse “a importância de angariar
apoio regional e multilateral, o que poderia, como resultado, levar a um papel mais
responsivo e ativo no fortalecimento da arquitetura de segurança do continente”.
Ainda no tocante à região, é forçoso mencionar a relação Angola – África do Sul. Após o
fim do apartheid na África do Sul, em 1994, os dois Estados mantém relações bastante
próximas, ainda que com algumas oscilações, com um relativo distanciamento durante a
gestão Mbeki. Ainda assim, temos o estreitamento importante da cooperação em defesa,
com a assinatura de um acordo em 2012 (Roque, 2013).
O lócus mais evidente onde é possível vislumbrar não só a possibilidade, mas a
necessidade de conexão entre as políticas externa e de defesa de Angola e que, por sua
vez, é também um imperativo para a sua projeção internacional é a estratégia marítima.
O Atlântico Sul, desta forma, apresenta-se como um promissor ambiente estratégico
para Luanda.
A importância do mar para Angola é incontestável. Passa pelos aspectos econômicos,
com a concentração dos recursos energéticos no mar e região litorânea (Pegado, 2014),
até as questões securitárias, com a defesa do território e garantia da segurança das rotas
marítimas. Vale lembrar que Angola possui cinco portos no Atlântico e que são
importantes alternativas aos portos da África do Sul (Scholvin, 2017). O fortalecimento
da política marítima, portanto, também é um instrumento de projeção regional.
Quanto a isso, dois aspectos destacam-se: primeiro é a preferência angolana em atuar
em organizações multilaterais em detrimento de acordos bilaterais, dando grande peso
para a Zona de Paz e Cooperação do Atlântico Sul (ZOPACAS
8
) e a Comissão do Golfo da
7
A MISSANG se estabeleceu em março de 2011 através de acordo bilateral entre os dois governos. A presença
das Forças Armadas Angolanas no território guineense, contudo, foi conturbado, com os militares angolanos
acusados de colaborarem com a liderança política que havia sido destituída e de não entregarem às forças
guineenses o material bélico previsto no acordo.
8
A Zona de Paz e Cooperação do Atlântico Sul foi criada em 27 de outubro de 1986. À época de sua criação, a
ZOPACAS refletia, em parte, o temor dos países da região de que as tensões da Guerra Fria acabassem
impactando na região de maneira mais acentuada. Atualmente, fazem parte Brasil, Argentina, Uruguai, Angola,
Benin, Camarões, Cabo Verde, República do Congo, Costa do Marfim, República Democrática do Congo, Guiné
JANUS.NET, e-journal of International Relations
e-ISSN: 1647-7251
VOL. 16, Nº. 2
Novembro 2025-abril 2026, pp. 329-345
A Projeção Internacional de Angola: Condicionantes Internos da Política Externa
e da Política de Defesa
Nathaly Xavier Schutz
339
Guiné (CGG
9
). Angola esteve na liderança da revitalização da ZOPACAS, em 2007,
promovendo a sua VI Reunião Ministerial em Luanda.
Da mesma forma, Luanda sedia a CGG e reconhece a importância que o Golfo da Guiné
tem, não só para Angola, mas para toda a segurança da África. A Comissão, ainda que
com uma estrutura institucional insipiente, é um importante ambiente de relação entre
os Estados da região que, por sua vez, são percebidos por Angola como parceiros
importantes. Além disso, através da CGG, Angola coloca-se como uma alternativa à
liderança nigeriana na região (Almeida; Bernardino, 2013).
O segundo aspecto a ser considerado é a fragilidade da política naval angolana como um
todo e, em específico, a debilidade da Marinha de Guerra Angolana (MGA).
Historicamente, em função dos próprios conflitos internos, o foco das Forças Armadas
Angolanas estava nas forças terrestres. Com a pacificação, em 2002, inicia-se uma
tentativa de reestruturação e modernização que, em grande medida, envolvia ampliar
recursos e o papel da MGA.
Luanda reconhece essas debilidades afirmando que sua “consciência marítima não
avançou nas mesmas proporções de suas necessidades” e que isso é resultado não só
dos esforços impostos pelo conflito terrestres, mas também pelas “dificuldades
financeiras” restringindo a visão do Estado em relação ao mar e às políticas conjunturais,
permitindo a actuação descoordenada dos organismos que intervém no mesmo, com
iniciativas individuais.” (Apresentação da Delegação de Angola, 2008:32)
A condução da política externa e da política de defesa entre 2002 e 2017, assim, são
marcadas pela necessidade de estabilizar economicamente o país e reconstruir a sua
imagem no exterior. Lourenço sobe ao poder em um contexto diverso, com Angola já
posicionada nos principais fóruns regionais e apto a implementar reformulações mais
significativas.
Grande parte das linhas gerais de política e das eventuais mudanças que Lourenço visa
conduzir foram contempladas na Estratégia de Longo Prazo lançada em 2023, conhecida
como Agenda Angola 2025. No documento, é possível vislumbrar as prioridades do
governo e suas principais diretrizes: 1) foco no desenvolvimento econômico como
prioridade das ações externas de Angola, com a menção, inclusive do desenvolvimento
socioeconômico sustentável como algo a ser garantido pela segurança nacional; 2)
preferência pelo multilateralismo, tanto nos aspectos políticos quanto econômicos, com
referência aos principais organismos africanos; 3) expressa vontade de ampliar o
protagonismo na África, especialmente através da participação ativa em arranjos
regionais, mencionando explicitamente o intuito de “continuar a liderar o processo de
manutenção da segurança e estabilidade política a nível regional (República de Angola,
2023:422)”; e 4) fortalecer a inserção internacional a partir do mar, reestruturando as
FAA, ampliando a MGA e construindo uma estratégia marítima alinhada com o Plano de
Ação da Estratégia Marítima Integrada da África 2050.
Equatorial, Gâmbia, Gabão, Gana, Guiné Conacri, Guiné Bissau, Libéria, Namíbia, Nigéria, São Tomé e Príncipe,
Senegal, Serra Leoa, África do Sul e Togo.
9
A CGG
9
foi criada em 2001 para funcionar como um âmbito de resolução de conflitos e harmonização da
exploração dos recursos naturais da região. São membros: Angola, Camarões, República Democrática do
Congo, Congo Brazzaville, Guiné Equatorial, Gabão, Nigéria e São Tomé e Príncipe.
JANUS.NET, e-journal of International Relations
e-ISSN: 1647-7251
VOL. 16, Nº. 2
Novembro 2025-abril 2026, pp. 329-345
A Projeção Internacional de Angola: Condicionantes Internos da Política Externa
e da Política de Defesa
Nathaly Xavier Schutz
340
A política externa implementada por Lourenço, em nenhum momento, rompe com aquela
conduzida por Dos Santos, ao contrário disso, mantém suas linhas gerais e suas
principais relações estratégicas, como China e Rússia. O que ocorre são ajustes de
condução mais sutis, notadamente a ampliação do multilateralismo, em contraste com a
preferência do governo anterior pelas tratativas bilaterais, em específico na economia, e
uma maior abertura para novos parceiros, em especial a Europa.
O que se percebe, assim, é que Lourenço, ao mesmo tempo em que não deseja
desagradar à elite do MPLA, busca construir uma inserção angolana mais concatenada
com os desafios atuais do país: desenvolvimento socio-econômico e projeção regional
mais qualificada. Aqui aparece, novamente, a ligação entre os aspectos domésticos, com
o governo tentando manter-se no poder, ao diminuir os descontentamentos da população
sem criar instabilidades excessivas dentro do Partido.
Assim como na política externa, Lourenço também vai imprimir na política de defesa um
novo tom. É marcante que, desde o início de seu governo, tem ocorrido uma redução
dos gastos em defesa como percentual do PIB. Além disso, há um programa de
redimensionamento do Ministério da Defesa e profissionalização das tropas (Schutz,
2022).
Importante destacar que, em abril de 2018, são publicados o Conceito Estratégico de
Defesa Nacional, revogando o anterior, de 1993, e o Livro Branco de Defesa Nacional.
Apear da pacificação, em 2002, é só com a saída de Dos Santos do poder que se tem a
reformulação do principal documento de defesa angolano. Destacam-se alguns aspectos,
como a manutenção da percepção de ameaça interna junto com a externa e a
identificação das novas ameaças de segurança – cibercrime, terrorismo e mudanças
climáticas – juntamente com os temas tradicionais – corrida armamentista tradicional e
nuclear.
Além disso, os documentos também mencionam a necessidade de articular os objetivos
e as ações de política externa e política de defesa e a importância das Forças Armadas
como instrumento de expressão da política externa. Também afirma o desejo de
protagonismo africano, com o objetivo de “ser uma peça importante na liderança política
e econômica da África Central e Austral, na Conferência do Golfo da Guiné e manter uma
influência e responsabilidade na manutenção da paz e da estabilidade política e social
das sub-regiões em que se encontra inserida (República de Angola, 2018: 2316)”
Outro aspecto a ser considerado é o direcionamento para as atuações internacionais das
Forças Armadas. Dado o contexto doméstico pacífico e os objetivos de protagonismo
regional, Luanda começa a concentrar esforços nessa demonstração e projeção de poder
na África. No Livro Branco de Defesa Nacional, inclusive, afirma que “as novas dinâmicas
de ordem externa e interna determinam um novo modelo de inserção de Angola na arena
internacional e obrigam as Forças Armadas Angolanas a assumir novas
responsabilidades, compatíveis com o nível de ambição política do nosso país (Angola,
2018:2350)”.
No último discurso sobre o Estado da Nação, em outubro de 2024, Lourenço deu especial
ênfase à questão marítima, ressaltando a relevância de modernizar a MGA e ampliar os
investimentos nas infraestruturas. Avanços importantes já haviam sido feitos, com
inauguração o Centro Nacional de Coordenação e Vigilância Marítima em janeiro de 2024,
JANUS.NET, e-journal of International Relations
e-ISSN: 1647-7251
VOL. 16, Nº. 2
Novembro 2025-abril 2026, pp. 329-345
A Projeção Internacional de Angola: Condicionantes Internos da Política Externa
e da Política de Defesa
Nathaly Xavier Schutz
341
ainda que com quatro anos de atraso, e a modernização da Base Naval de Luanda. A
política de defesa de Angola, desta forma, também traduz a necessidade do Estado de
articular as demandas domésticas com os objetivos internacionais. Para Plácido (2016),
fica evidente que a preocupação com a integridade territorial e a manutenção da
soberania caminha junto com o desejo de projeção regional e, também, as preocupações
com o desenvolvimento econômico.
Angola tem se posicionado, assim, como uma importante liderança africana. É importante
lembrar que, como já foi mencionado, o país ocupa uma posição estratégica no
Continente, atuando como um vértice entre as regiões ocidental e central. A partir de
2025, Angola passou a ocupar a presidência da União Africana o que, para Lourenço,
representa uma oportunidade do país de implementar e influenciar as iniciativas na
promoção do desenvolvimento do Continente (CIPRA, 09/11/2024).
Em sua fala na Assembleia Geral da Nações Unidas, em setembro de 2024, Lourenço
destacou o empenho de Angola com a pacificação da África, invocando a sua experiência
na pacificação de seu conflito interno (CIPRA, 29/09/2024). O posicionamento de Angola
nos últimos anos tem refletido, desta forma, uma maior constância no objetivo de
consolidar-se como liderança regional. Tanto em declarações públicas, quanto em
documentos oficiais, essa menção é recorrente e, por certo, intencional.
A evolução da política externa e da política de defesa de Angola, ao longo das duas
últimas décadas, dessa forma, pode ser compreendida pelas necessidades internas, mas
também pelo “facto de Angola ser uma nação africana, com uma identidade histórica e
cultural partilhada com nações vizinhas, com uma condição geoestratégica particular
decorrente da sua maritimidade e da localização no cruzamento regional entre as regiões
central e austral do continente Africano, e como uma plataforma para a pacificação dos
conflitos a nível dos Estados africanos (Bembe, 2016, p. 27-28)”.
Considerações finais
Angola é um país complexo e com um histórico de violência em seu território que imprimi
marcas até os dias atuais. Ainda que tenha sofrido por mais de quatro décadas – se
somadas a guerra de libertação e a posterior guerra civil – com conflitos internos,
atualmente, Angola é identificada como uma liderança e uma força de estabilização da
região centro-austral africana.
Ao analisar a política externa e a política de defesa angolanas torna-se latente a
necessidade de compreender como essas mudanças domésticas impactaram na sua
inserção externa. Ainda que a atuação angolana no sistema internacional possa ser
compreendida a partir dos seus objetivos, existem condicionantes internos que não
podem ser ignorados.
Dentre esses fatores, o mais complexo e, muito provavelmente, aquele que tem mais
influência é o próprio MPLA. O MPLA, assim como vários outros casos africanos, é um
partido originado de um movimento de libertação que está no poder em Angola desde a
sua independência. Essa combinação, como foi visto ao longo do trabalho, imprimi
características muito particulares ao contexto interno angolano.
JANUS.NET, e-journal of International Relations
e-ISSN: 1647-7251
VOL. 16, Nº. 2
Novembro 2025-abril 2026, pp. 329-345
A Projeção Internacional de Angola: Condicionantes Internos da Política Externa
e da Política de Defesa
Nathaly Xavier Schutz
342
A ampla participação dos militares em outras esferas políticas, a percepção de lealdade
das forças de segurança ao Partido e não ao Estado e a permanência de um mesmo
governante por quase 40 anos caracterizam uma Angola onde Partido, governo e Estado
se confundem. O interesse nacional acaba transformando-se no interesse do regime e a
definição da agenda estatal é pautada pelo desejo de permanecer no poder.
É esse contexto doméstico que influencia a formulação da política externa e de defesa
de Angola. E é por isso, também, que as mudanças políticas que acontecem dentro do
Estado tem um peso tão significativo na postura e papel que este tem nas relações
internacionais.
É possível, a partir dos dois grandes marcos recentes da história angolana – a pacificação
em 2002 e a saída de Dos Santos do poder em 2017 – identificar duas fases da inserção
do país no sistema internacional. Ainda que, tanto a política externa quanto a política
defesa, apresentem uma continuidade expressiva, fruto, em grande medida, da própria
manutenção do MPLA no poder, algumas mudanças importantes podem ser percebidas.
O período que abarca de 2002 a 2017 é marcado pela necessidade de normalização das
relações exteriores e reinserção de Angola, através da busca pela melhora da imagem
do país no exterior. É um período em que a diplomacia econômica ganha mais força e a
política de defesa ainda mantém traços do período do conflito, em certo descompasso
com a nova conjuntura. Por outro lado, amplia-se a cooperação multilateral na área da
defesa, especialmente com países do Sul global; em um contraste com a esfera
econômica, na qual a preferência segue sendo a bilateralidade.
Com a subida de Lourenço ao poder, o rearranjo e a modernização das Forças Armadas
Angolanas ganham maior força, assim como uma reorientação mais clara da política de
defesa que, agora, passa a ser voltada para o papel das FAA no exterior, entrelaçada na
própria política externa. Essa, por sua vez, amplia a atuação multilateral, fazendo dessa
uma das principais caraterísticas da inserção angolana e enxergando nas organizações e
fóruns internacionais uma plataforma para a projeção angolana na África e no mundo.
Angola segue enfrentando desafios importantes nessa inserção, notadamente sua
debilidade na estratégia marítima e as fragilidades econômicas derivadas de sua
economia baseada no petróleo. O governo de Lourenço, contudo, ao contrário de Dos
Santos, parece reconhecer mais claramente esses problemas e, talvez, possa enfrentá-
los com políticas mais adequadas. Isso, é claro, se isso não representar nenhuma ameaça
a sua manutenção no poder.
Referências
AEBY, Michael (2019). SADC – The Southern Arrested Development Community. Policy
Dialogue Nº14, The Nordic Africa Institute, Uppsala.
ALMEIDA, Eugênio Costa; BERNARDINO, Luís Manuel Brás (2013). A Comissão Do Golfo
Da Guiné A Zona De Paz Cooperação Do Atlântico Sul. Organizações Interzonais Para A
Persecução Da Segurança Marítima Na Bacia Meridional Atlântica. Revista Militar, n.
2532.
JANUS.NET, e-journal of International Relations
e-ISSN: 1647-7251
VOL. 16, Nº. 2
Novembro 2025-abril 2026, pp. 329-345
A Projeção Internacional de Angola: Condicionantes Internos da Política Externa
e da Política de Defesa
Nathaly Xavier Schutz
343
ALMEIDA, Cláudia (2019). Angola e os ventos de mudança e continuidade de João
Lourenço. Janus 2020/2021. Novembro de 2019.
ALMEIDA, Cláudia; SATULA, Benja (2018). Only one man for two Jobs: the leadership
transition in Angola. Presidential Power, 19/10/2018.
ALMEIDA, Eugênio Costa (2018). O papel de Angola como vértice do eixo centro-austral
de África: contributos para a segurança regional. CesContexto, nº20, Abril 2018.
Apresentação da Delegação de Angola. (2008) Angola no Contexto da Defesa e
Segurança Marítima do Golfo da Guiné. 1º Simpósio das Marinhas de Língua Portuguesa.
Cadernos Navais.
AUGÈ, Benjamin (2019). Angola under João Lourenço: who are the new players of MPLA
State. Notes de l’IFRI, IFRI, December 2019.
ARON, Raymond (2002). Paz e Guerra entre as Nações. Brasília: Ed. UnB/IPRI.
AYOOB, Mohammed (2002). Inequality and theorizing in international relations: the case
of subaltern realism. International Studies Association.
BEMBE, Miguel Domingos (2016). A Política Externa Angolana: Doutrina e prática.
Mulemba: Revista Angolana de Ciências Sociais, v.6, n.11.
BERNARDINO, Manuel Brás (2013). A posição de Angola na arquitetura de paz e
segurança africana: análise da função estratégica das forças armadas angolanas.
Coimbra: Almedina.
BYE, Vegard; INGLES, Paulo; ORRE, Aslak (2021). Angola after Dos Santos: change and
continuity. CMI Working Paper, Number 8, November 2021.
CASTELLANO, Igor (2015). Política Externa Regional de Angola: mudanças frente à
ordem sistêmica (1975-2010). Austral: Revista Brasileira de Estratégia e Relações
Internacionais, v. 4, n. 7.
CENTRO DE IMPRENSA DA PRESIDÊNCIA DA REPÚBLICA DE ANGOLA (CIPRA)
(2024).Presidente declara empenho de Angola na busca de soluções para os conflitos em
África. 29 de setembro de 2024. Disponível em
https://cipra.gov.ao/noticias/1896/governo/na-assembleia-geral-da-onu/presidente-
da-republica-declara-empenho-de-angola-na-busca-de-solucoes-para-os-conflitos-em-
africa. Acessado em 10 de abril de 2025 .
CENTRO DE IMPRENSA DA PRESIDÊNCIA DA REPÚBLICA DE ANGOLA (CIPRA) (2024).
Grupo interministerial prepara presidência de Angola em 2025. Disponível em
https://cipra.gov.ao/noticias/2023/politica/uniao-africana/grupo-interministerial-
prepara-presidencia-de-angola-em-2025. Acessado em 17 de abril de 2025.
CLAPHAM, Cristopher (2012). From Liberation Movement to Government: Past Legacies
and The Challenge of Transition in Africa. Discussion Paper 8/2012 Johannesburg: The
Brenthurst Foundation.
CLARK, John F (2001). Realism, Neo-Realism and Africa's International Relations in the
Post-Cold War Era. In: DUNN,Kevin; SHAW, Timothy. (Ed). Africa’s Challenge to
International Relations Theory. New York: Palgrave.
JANUS.NET, e-journal of International Relations
e-ISSN: 1647-7251
VOL. 16, Nº. 2
Novembro 2025-abril 2026, pp. 329-345
A Projeção Internacional de Angola: Condicionantes Internos da Política Externa
e da Política de Defesa
Nathaly Xavier Schutz
344
DUNN,Kevin (2001). MadLib #32: Th Blank African State: Rethinking the Sovereign State
in International Relations Theory In: DUNN,Kevin; SHAW, Timothy. (Ed). Africa’s
Challenge to International Relations Theory. New York: Palgrave.
GINGA, Damião Fernandes Capitão (2020). A Influência do Mar como Elemento da
Política Externa Angolana: Uma Diplomacia Naval Angolana. R. Esc. Guerra Nav., Rio de
Janeiro, v. 26, n. 2, p. 526-555.
HALLIDAY, Fred. (1999) Repensando as Relações Internacionais. Porto Alegre: Editora
da UFRGS.
HERBST, Jeffrey.; MILLS, Greg (2018). Can Ramaphosa, Lourenço and Mnangagwa
Change Africa’s Fortunes?. Disponível em:
www.thebrenthurstfoundation.org/article/can-ramaphosa-lourenco-and-mnangagwa-
change-africas-fortunes/ Acessado em 31 de março de 2020.
HILL, Christopher (2003). The Changing Politics of Foreign Policy. New York: Palgrave.
MALAQUIAS, Assis (2011). Angola’s Foreign Policy: Pragmatic Recalibrations. Occasional
Paper n. 84.
MATLOSA, Khabele (2010). The role of the Southern African Development Community in
mediating post-election conflicts: Case studies of Lesotho and Zimbabwe. In: MATLOSA,
Khabele; KHADIAGALA, Gilbert; SHALE, Victor. When elephants fight: preventing and
resolving election-related conflicts in Africa. Johannesburg: EISA.
MATSIMBE, Zefanias; DOMINGOS, Nelson (2018). Angola’s 2017 Elections and the Start
of a Pos-Dos Santos Era. Journal of African Elections, V.17, N.1.
MORRIS, Helen (2017). Angola – september 2017 Update. ACLED, September 22, 2017.
Disponível https://acleddata.com/region/africa. Acessado em 26 de junho de 2019.
NGUBANE, S. (2004). Sources of Southern Africa Insecurity. In: SOLOMON, H. (Ed.).
Towards a Common Defence and Security Policy in the Southern African Development
Community. Pretoria: AISA.
PEGADO, Ainda (2014). Angola como potência regional emergente. Análise dos factores
estratégicos (2002-2012). Tese de Doutorado em Estudos Africanos – Política e Relações
Internacionais, Instituto Universitário de Lisboa.
PLÁCIDO, Gustavo (2016). Angola no Golfo da Guiné e Atlântico Sul. Africa Defense and
Security.
RENO (2001). External Relations of Weak States and Stateless Regions. In: African
Foreign Policies: Power and Process. Edited by Gilbert M. Khadiagala and Terrence Lyons.
Boulder: Lynne Rienner.
REPÚBLICA DE ANGOLA (2018). Livro Branco de Defesa Nacional. Decreto Presidencial
nº108/18 de 25 de abril de 2018.
REPÚBLICA DE ANGOLA (2018). Conceito Estratégico de Defesa Nacional. Decreto
Presidencial nº107/18 de 23 de abril de 2018.
REPÚBLICA DE ANGOLA (2023). Visão Estratégica de Longo Prazo – Angola 2050.
REPÚBLICA DE ANGOLA (2024). Mensagem sobre o Estado da Nação 2024.
JANUS.NET, e-journal of International Relations
e-ISSN: 1647-7251
VOL. 16, Nº. 2
Novembro 2025-abril 2026, pp. 329-345
A Projeção Internacional de Angola: Condicionantes Internos da Política Externa
e da Política de Defesa
Nathaly Xavier Schutz
345
ROQUE, Paula Cristina (2013). Angola’s crucial foreing policy drive. SWP Comments,
n.15, German Institute for International and Security Affairs, Berlin.
KHADIAGALA, Gilbert; LYONS, Terrence (2001). African Foreign Policies: Power and
Process. London: Rienner.
SCHUTZ, Nathaly Xavier (2022). Angola no Atlântico Sul. Conjuntura Austral. Revista do
Núcleo Brasileiro de Estratégia e Relações Internacionais da UFRGS. v.13.
SCHUTZ, Nathaly Xavier (2024). Angola no Caminho da Democracia: avanços e
retrocessos. Latitude, v.18, n.1.
SCHOLVIN, Soren (2017). South Africa and Secondary Powers: contestation in Sub-
Saharan Africa. South Africa Institute of International Affairs, Occasional Paper 270.
THOMSON, Alex (2010). An introduction to African Politics. 3ed. New York: Routledge.
VIDAL, Nuno Fragoso (2024). Angola State Security/Intelligence Service and their
support to the MPLA and presidential hegemony. Journal of Intelligence History, v.23,
n.2.
VINES, Alex (2021). Dos Santos to Lourenço: Angola’s transitional politics. The Africa
Governance Papers. Volume 1, Issue 1, November 2021.
OBSERVARE
Universidade Autónoma de Lisboa
e-ISSN: 1647-7251
VOL. 16, Nº. 2
novembro 2025-abril 2026
346
O PROCESSO DE INCUBAÇÃO DE EMPRESAS PARA O FOMENTO DO
EMPREENDEDORISMO EM ANGOLA: NA VISÃO DOS INCUBADOS
MANUEL CONCEIÇÃO DA SILVA MENDES
mendes.sieta@gmail.com
Doutor em Gestão pela Universidade Agostinho Neto, Mestre em Gestão, Empreendedorismo e
Inovação (2016) e Mestre em Engenharia Geográfica – Sistemas de Informação Geográfica
(2020). É Professor Auxiliar da Academia Naval da Marinha de Guerra Angolana (Angola), onde
exerce também funções de Diretor do Centro de Investigação Naval e docente em programas de
graduação e pós-graduação no Instituto Superior Politécnico Lusíada de Benguela. As suas áreas
de investigação incluem gestão, empreendedorismo, inovação, sistemas de informação
geográfica e metodologia de investigação científica. Autor da obra literária Empreendedorismo e
Inovação: A transformação do Contexto Económico em Angola e de publicações de trabalhos em
revistas científicas e conferências nacionais e internacionais.
Resumo
O tema desta investigação é justificado pela relevância do empreendedorismo e do processo
de Incubação de empresas para o desenvolvimento e sustentabilidade de novos
empreendimentos. O objetivo geral consiste em analisar a contribuição do processo de
Incubação de empresas para o fomento do empreendedorismo em Angola, através da
capacitação dos empreendedores, por meio de ações de formação, conhecimentos e
competências. Formulou-se a seguinte questão: Como pode o processo de Incubação de
empresas contribuir para o fomento do empreendedorismo em Angola? A investigação adotou
uma abordagem quantitativa, descritivo-explicativa e de natureza hipotético-dedutiva,
aplicando um questionário estruturado a 64 empreendedores incubados em incubadoras
públicas de 11 províncias. Os dados, recolhidos online com consentimento informado e
garantia de anonimato, foram tratados com recurso ao Excel, SPSS e Python 3.8.6, permitindo
análises estatísticas descritivas e cruzamentos de variáveis. Os resultados mostraram que o
processo de incubação é um fator relevante para o fortalecimento do empreendedorismo,
sobretudo entre jovens licenciados, mas limitado pelo fraco acesso a financiamento e pela
insuficiente transferência de conhecimentos estratégicos. A revisão de literatura foi atualizada
com contributos recentes (menos de cinco anos), reforçando a pertinência académica e prática
desta investigação e situando-a no debate contemporâneo sobre incubação em economias
emergentes.
Palavras-chave
Empreendedorismo, Incubadora de empresa, Incubação.
Abstract
The theme of this research is justified by the relevance of entrepreneurship and the business
incubation process for the development and sustainability of new ventures. The overall
objective is to analyze the contribution of the business incubation process to fostering
entrepreneurship in Angola through the empowerment of entrepreneurs by means of training,
knowledge, and skills. The following question was formulated: How can the business
incubation process contribute to promoting entrepreneurship in Angola? The research adopted
a quantitative, descriptive-explanatory, and hypothetico-deductive approach, applying a
structured questionnaire to 64 entrepreneurs incubated in public incubators across 11
provinces. Data were collected online with informed consent and anonymity ensured, and
analyzed using Excel, SPSS, and Python 3.8.6, allowing for descriptive statistics and cross-
variable analysis. The results showed that the incubation process is a relevant factor in
strengthening entrepreneurship, particularly among young graduates, although limited by
JANUS.NET, e-journal of International Relations
e-ISSN: 1647-7251
VOL. 16, Nº. 2
Novembro 2025-abril 2026, pp. 346-363
O Processo de Incubação de Empresas para o Fomento do Empreendedorismo em Angola:
Na Visão dos Incubados
Manuel Conceição Da Silva Mendes
347
restricted access to financing and insufficient transfer of strategic management knowledge.
The literature review was updated with recent contributions (last five years), reinforcing the
academic and practical relevance of this investigation and situating it within the current debate
on incubation in emerging economies.
Keywords
Entrepreneurship, Business Incubator, Incubation.
Como citar este artigo
Mendes, Manuel Conceição Da Silva (2025). O Processo de Incubação de Empresas para o Fomento
do Empreendedorismo em Angola: Na Visão dos Incubados. Janus.net, e-journal of international
relations. VOL. 16, Nº. 2, novembro 2025-abril 2026, pp. 346-363. DOI
https://doi.org/10.26619/1647-7251.16.2.19
Artigo submetido em 11 de março de 2025 e aceite para publicação em 10 de setembro
de 2025.
JANUS.NET, e-journal of International Relations
e-ISSN: 1647-7251
VOL. 16, Nº. 2
Novembro 2025-abril 2026, pp. 346-363
O Processo de Incubação de Empresas para o Fomento do Empreendedorismo em Angola:
Na Visão dos Incubados
Manuel Conceição Da Silva Mendes
348
O PROCESSO DE INCUBAÇÃO DE EMPRESAS PARA O FOMENTO DO
EMPREENDEDORISMO EM ANGOLA: NA VISÃO DOS INCUBADOS
MANUEL CONCEIÇÃO DA SILVA MENDES
Introdução
O empreendedorismo é um tema marcado por uma diversidade de conceitos de
diferentes autores. É importante entender que não se trata de uma arte ou ciência, mas
de uma atividade comercial que pode ser ensinada e aprendida. Em todo o mundo, a
relevância do empreendedorismo para o fomento das economias é amplamente
estudada, tanto em países desenvolvidos quanto em desenvolvimento.
Em Angola, o espírito empreendedor é intrínseco à população. A atividade
empreendedora cresceu especialmente durante o período de instabilidade política e
social, quando muitos cidadãos a adotaram como meio de subsistência. Atualmente, o
Estado angolano tem dado atenção redobrada ao processo empreendedor, promovendo
políticas e programas que incentivam o empreendedorismo por oportunidade. Isso não
apenas gera riqueza, mas também favorece a diversificação dos setores da economia,
contribuindo para o crescimento do país.
O governo angolano tem criado políticas e programas para apoiar a atividade
empreendedora, mas a mortalidade de empresas e o insucesso dos empreendedores
permanecem altos. Muitos empresários operam sem formação ou conhecimento
adequado, o que os deixa despreparados para o mercado. O aumento de novas empresas
que rapidamente falham demonstra que muitos empreendedores não conseguem
elaborar um plano de negócios devido à falta de competências de gestão, redes de
contatos e recursos financeiros. Essa realidade evidencia a necessidade de mentoria para
orientar e apoiar os novos negócios no caminho certo.
A incubadora de empresas é um espaço com infraestrutura e serviços de apoio dedicados
à criação de micro, pequenas e médias empresas em diversas áreas. Assim como as
incubadoras para recém-nascidos, elas garantem condições para a sobrevivência de
projetos empresariais em fase vulnerável. No entanto, o empreendedorismo não resolve
todos os problemas de um país. Em Angola, o Executivo busca provocar mudanças
estruturais tanto nos negócios quanto na sociedade.
Para além das referências clássicas sobre empreendedorismo e incubação (Schumpeter,
1934; Drucker, 1974; McClelland, 1972; Kirzner, 1983), esta investigação foi atualizada
com contributos recentes (menos de cinco anos), que reforçam a sua pertinência
científica. Estudos internacionais e africanos (Correia, Marques & Silva, 2024; Rosado-
JANUS.NET, e-journal of International Relations
e-ISSN: 1647-7251
VOL. 16, Nº. 2
Novembro 2025-abril 2026, pp. 346-363
O Processo de Incubação de Empresas para o Fomento do Empreendedorismo em Angola:
Na Visão dos Incubados
Manuel Conceição Da Silva Mendes
349
Cuberoa et al., 2024; Ibwe & Mwantimwa, 2025; Parish et al., 2023; Motlhaudi, 2025)
oferecem novas perspetivas sobre incubação, redes de apoio e impactos diferenciados
em contextos emergentes.
Atualmente, os maiores estudos sobre dinâmicas empreendedoras são realizados pelo
Global Entrepreneurship Monitor (GEM), criado em 1999 pelo Babson College e pela
London Business School. O GEM avalia anualmente a atividade empreendedora,
aspirações e dificuldades em vários países. Angola participou do GEM pela oitava vez em
2020/2021, após edições anteriores em 2008, 2010, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2016/2017 e
2018/2019. Diante dos imperativos de diversificação do Executivo, esta pesquisa aborda
o tema: O Processo de Incubação de Empresas para o Fomento do Empreendedorismo
em Angola: Na Visão dos Incubados
1
, questionando como pode o processo de Incubação
de empresas contribuir para o fomento do empreendedorismo em Angola?
Objectivos
Esta investigação procura compreender o processo de Incubação de empresas para
fomentar o empreendedorismo em Angola, formulando e comprovando proposição.
Em Angola, apesar do crescente reconhecimento do empreendedorismo como motor do
desenvolvimento económico, a literatura sobre incubadoras de empresas é escassa e
pouco sistematizada. Esta lacuna justifica a presente investigação, que se propôs analisar
como o processo de Incubação de Empresas contribui para o fomento do
empreendedorismo, com base em um estudo realizado entre 2012 e 2018. O estudo gera
conhecimento original para a academia, subsidia políticas públicas mais eficazes e
oferece recomendações práticas para melhorar a atuação das incubadoras no apoio à
micro e pequenas empresas.
E tem como objetivos específicos: (1) Caracterizar o perfil sociodemográfico e académico
dos incubados; (2) Identificar os serviços e conhecimentos transferidos pelas
incubadoras; (3) Avaliar as principais dificuldades enfrentadas pelos incubados; (4)
Examinar os contributos das incubadoras para o desenvolvimento dos negócios; (5)
Discutir as implicações do processo de incubação para a prática, a teoria e as políticas
públicas.
Marco Teórico Conceptual
A Evolução Histórica do Empreendedorismo
O termo “empreendedorismo” deriva do francês “entre” e “prende”, referindo-se à
interação entre fornecedor e consumidor no mercado (Sarkar, 2014).
O conceito de empreendedorismo evoluiu desde Cantillon (1755), que destacou o risco,
Adam Smith (1776), descreveu os empreendedores como entidades que transformam a
demanda em oferta (Sarkar, 2014), J. B. Say (1803) popularizou a ideia que os
1
O autor expressa os seus agradecimentos aos dois revisores anónimos da primeira versão deste trabalho,
cujos comentários muito contribuíram para a melhoria do mesmo.
JANUS.NET, e-journal of International Relations
e-ISSN: 1647-7251
VOL. 16, Nº. 2
Novembro 2025-abril 2026, pp. 346-363
O Processo de Incubação de Empresas para o Fomento do Empreendedorismo em Angola:
Na Visão dos Incubados
Manuel Conceição Da Silva Mendes
350
empreendedores são agentes de transformação do crescimento econômico e John S. Mill
(1848), realçou o papel do empreendedor na criação de novos produtos.
Já Alfred Marshall enfatizou que a função do empreendedor é garantir o fornecimento de
produtos, Carl Menger definiu o empreendedor como aquele que cria oportunidades, Max
Weber, por sua vez, investigou a função do empreendedor no crescimento individual e
Frank H. Knight (1921) associou o conceito de "risco" a "incerteza" marcando uma nova
fase nos estudos sobre o empreendedorismo.
A evolução do conceito ao longo dos séculos mostra a crescente importância do
empreendedorismo como motor do desenvolvimento econômico e social. A ideia de que
os empreendedores desempenham um papel crucial na inovação e na criação de novos
mercados é amplamente reconhecida hoje. No entanto, o empreendedorismo não é
apenas sobre riscos e inovações; também envolve a capacidade de identificar
oportunidades e a habilidade de mobilizar recursos de forma eficaz.
Com o tempo, o empreendedorismo evoluiu para incluir não apenas a criação de
negócios, mas também a promoção de mudanças sociais e a resolução de problemas
comunitários. A capacitação e a formação de empreendedores têm se tornado essencial,
especialmente em contextos onde a falta de conhecimento e infraestrutura pode limitar
o potencial de novos negócios.
Em resumo, a trajetória do conceito de empreendedorismo reflete a complexidade e a
multifuncionalidade do papel do empreendedor na sociedade. Desde suas raízes nas
teorias econômicas até suas aplicações contemporâneas, o empreendedorismo continua
a ser um campo dinâmico, relevante para o desenvolvimento sustentável e a inovação
em diversas áreas.
Schumpeter (1934) sobressaiu ao estudo do empreendedorismo, destacando o papel do
empreendedor como motor do desenvolvimento econômico, inovador através da
capacidade de criar novas combinações de recursos produtivos e serviços, nas
transformações econômicas contemporâneas e um impulsionador do sistema capitalista
ocidental (Godim, 2018).
Drucker (1974) reforçou que o empreendedor deve estar comprometido com a inovação,
descrevendo como “ferramenta específica dos empreendedores". Ele evidenciou que o
papel do empreendedorismo é garantir a eficiência dos negócios atuais no futuro,
renovando e agregando valor e que o empreendedorismo não é nem ciência nem arte,
mas uma prática que exige ação e adaptação.
McClelland (1972) salientou a importância da motivação no crescimento econômico de
um país, identificando três fatores que influenciam a atitude do empreendedor: (1) a
necessidade ou motivo de realização, que leva à busca de oportunidades; (2) a iniciativa
individual, que vai além de características pessoais; e (3) a predisposição ao risco
moderado, que inclui persistência e comprometimento (Franco e Gouveia, 2016).
Kirzner (1983) compilou diversas teorias sobre o papel dos empreendedores,
apresentando-os como indivíduos que assumem riscos. Ele identificou várias funções dos
empreendedores: inovadores, arbitradores, coordenadores e organizadores. Esses
indivíduos proporcionam liderança e exercem a verdadeira vontade, atuando como
JANUS.NET, e-journal of International Relations
e-ISSN: 1647-7251
VOL. 16, Nº. 2
Novembro 2025-abril 2026, pp. 346-363
O Processo de Incubação de Empresas para o Fomento do Empreendedorismo em Angola:
Na Visão dos Incubados
Manuel Conceição Da Silva Mendes
351
especuladores, empregadores e gestores, além de serem fontes de informação que
identificam oportunidades ainda não exploradas no mercado.
A figura do empreendedor, portanto, é vista como central para a inovação e a adaptação
no mercado, e essencial para a prosperidade econômica.
Em suma, as contribuições de Schumpeter, Drucker, McClelland e Kirzner destacam a
complexidade do empreendedorismo, que envolve inovação, motivação e a identificação
de oportunidades. Esses aspectos são cruciais para entender como os empreendedores
desempenham um papel vital no desenvolvimento econômico e social, moldando o futuro
dos mercados e contribuindo para o progresso da sociedade. A interação entre esses
elementos forma a base do que significa ser um empreendedor em um mundo em
constante mudança.
O Processo de Incubação De Empresas
Em 1989, foi criada a primeira incubadora de empresas em África, na Nigéria, pelo
UNFSTD (Manuel; Simão, 2018). Nos anos 90, houve um aumento significativo de
incubadoras, especialmente em países desenvolvidos, focadas em clusters industriais e
tecnológicos, com ênfase na inovação e desenvolvimento de nichos de mercado
(Caetano, 2012). Surgiram incubadoras setoriais, agrupando empresas de um mesmo
setor (Correia, 2013).
Lumpkin e outros (1996) definem incubação como um esforço organizado para apoiar a
criação e sobrevivência de novos negócios em um ambiente controlado, que oferece
infraestrutura e serviços compartilhados, contrastando com a concorrência externa
(Caetano, 2011). Em 1998, um novo modelo de incubação emergiu, aproveitando as
Tecnologias de Informação e Comunicação (TIC) para estimular o crescimento de
empresas de base tecnológica (Lalkaka, 2001; Fernandes, 2014).
Grimaldi e Grandi (2002) destacam que muitas agências de desenvolvimento econômico
adotaram incubadoras para reduzir falhas e acelerar a criação de negócios. Lalkaka
(2002) considera essas iniciativas parte das políticas públicas dos governos, visando
revitalizar economias, melhorar o ambiente de negócios e gerar empregos (Guillen;
Veras, 2018). Assim, as incubadoras se consolidaram como uma ferramenta essencial
para o fomento do empreendedorismo e inovação.
Grimaldi e Grandi (2005) destacam que, após o período de incubação, os
empreendimentos devem se tornar negócios independentes e auto-sustentáveis. Embora
as incubadoras ofereçam serviços comuns, cada uma possui características únicas que
atendem a suas comunidades, resultando em diferentes modelos de incubação. O modelo
adotado influencia diretamente o processo de incubação, afetando variáveis como o nível
de investimento, a qualidade da equipe de gestão e a diversidade de serviços oferecidos
(Valadão, 2017).
A elaboração de um plano de negócios é uma etapa essencial, pois o sucesso da
incubadora depende da viabilidade dos projetos que concebe. O empreendedor deve
explorar a natureza comercial do novo negócio durante esse processo (Monteiro e Gava,
2007). Dada a alta taxa de mortalidade de empresas nos primeiros anos, a incubação é
comparada as incubadoras de recém-nascidos, proporcionando um ambiente seguro para
JANUS.NET, e-journal of International Relations
e-ISSN: 1647-7251
VOL. 16, Nº. 2
Novembro 2025-abril 2026, pp. 346-363
O Processo de Incubação de Empresas para o Fomento do Empreendedorismo em Angola:
Na Visão dos Incubados
Manuel Conceição Da Silva Mendes
352
que os projetos empresariais nascentes possam se desenvolver e sobreviver (Saraiva,
2011).
Dornelas (2002) sugere que a incubação promove a interação entre universidades e
empresas, transformando conhecimento em produtos e acelerando o desenvolvimento
de novos empreendimentos. Essa dinâmica é crucial para criar empresas competitivas
que se mantenham em desenvolvimento contínuo após a incubação (Godim, 2018).
Em África, a incubação assemelha-se a modelos utilizados em outros continentes, com
foco em incubadoras de base tecnológica. Isso facilita a conexão entre investidores e
jovens empreendedores, promovendo o uso de tecnologias como programação e
software (Manuel; Simão, 2018). Assim, as incubadoras se tornam um pilar fundamental
para o fomento ao empreendedorismo e à inovação no continente.
Para além das referências clássicas sobre empreendedorismo e incubação, esta
investigação foi atualizada com contributos recentes (menos de cinco anos), que
reforçam a sua pertinência científica. Estudos como os de Correia, Marques e Silva (2024)
e Rosado-Cuberoa et al. (2024) evidenciam o papel das incubadoras na dinamização de
ecossistemas empreendedores, sobretudo entre os jovens. No contexto africano,
trabalhos recentes em Angola (Pinto, Alves & Rolo, 2023; World Bank Group & IFC, 2023)
e em outros países, como Tanzânia (Ibwe & Mwantimwa, 2025) e Camarões (Parish,
Tchoumi & Nguemta, 2023), oferecem evidência empírica sobre os desafios e
oportunidades da incubação. Além disso, novas propostas de enquadramento, como o
Apprenteneurship Framework (Motlhaudi, 2025), apontam caminhos para fortalecer
incubadoras públicas. Assim, a presente pesquisa não apenas dialoga com a tradição
teórica consolidada, mas também incorpora avanços recentes que ampliam a sua
relevância académica e prática.
O Empreendedorismo e a Importância do Processo de Incubação de
Empresa
Em Angola, o espírito empreendedor remonta antes da independência, com a prática de
comércio informal em bancadas às portas das casas e serviços como lavadeiras e
jardineiros. Após a independência, a guerra civil degradou as infraestruturas e gerou
instabilidade política e socioeconômica, levando muitos angolanos a buscar o
empreendedorismo como solução para suas necessidades, especialmente atuando no
mercado informal.
Nos últimos 16 anos, o país enfrentou duas crises econômicas (2009 e 2014), que
afetaram gravemente a exportação de petróleo, a principal fonte de receitas,
deteriorando as condições sociais. Diante dessa situação, o Estado angolano reconheceu
a urgência de diversificar a economia e implementou políticas para fomentar o
empreendedorismo, o emprego e a formação profissional.
Nesse contexto, foram criadas incubadoras de empresas públicas, como a IEMP, INAPEM
e CLESE, que oferecem infraestrutura técnica e administrativa, além de serviços
especializados para apoiar micro, pequenas e médias empresas (MPME). Essas
incubadoras visam estimular a concorrência e a inovação na economia angolana,
promovendo um crescimento econômico sustentável.
JANUS.NET, e-journal of International Relations
e-ISSN: 1647-7251
VOL. 16, Nº. 2
Novembro 2025-abril 2026, pp. 346-363
O Processo de Incubação de Empresas para o Fomento do Empreendedorismo em Angola:
Na Visão dos Incubados
Manuel Conceição Da Silva Mendes
353
Atualmente, o empreendedorismo é uma prioridade nas estratégias do governo,
integrando-se ao currículo educacional em vários níveis. Além disso, Angola participa do
Global Entrepreneurship Monitor (GEM), que analisa atitudes e aspirações
empreendedoras e identifica fatores que influenciam o empreendedorismo em diferentes
países. O país é classificado como uma economia orientada por fatores de produção,
inserindo-se em um contexto geográfico e de desenvolvimento específico. Assim, o
governo procura consolidar o empreendedorismo como motor de desenvolvimento
econômico e social.
Metodologia
A investigação adotou uma abordagem quantitativa, de caráter exploratório, descritivo-
explicativa, fundamentada no método hipotético-dedutivo, adequada para descrever
fenómenos, identificar relações e propor inferências teóricas. Partiu-se da identificação
de uma lacuna sobre o papel da incubação de empresas no fomento do
empreendedorismo em Angola, formulando-se a proposição de que esse processo
constitui um fator determinante para o desenvolvimento empresarial no país.
Procedimentos
1. Pesquisa bibliográfica e documental – revisão da literatura nacional e internacional
sobre empreendedorismo e incubação, além da análise de relatórios do INAPEM e do
GEM Angola (2012–2018);
2. Trabalho de campo – aplicação de questionários estruturados a empreendedores
incubados em incubadoras públicas;
3. Instrumento de recolha – Foram enviados por e-mail os questionários com 17
questões fechadas, divididas em variáveis sociodemográficas e organizacionais,
elaborado a partir da literatura e validado por especialistas. Foi realizado um pré-
teste com seis empreendedores para verificar clareza e pertinência e enviado o termo
de sigilo e confidencialidade para que fosse permitido o acesso a informações mais
detalhadas.
Amostra
A amostra foi aleatória simples, composta por 64 empreendedores incubados em
incubadoras públicas de 11 províncias de Angola. A taxa de resposta válida foi de 81,01%
(64 de 79 questionários enviados).
Tratamento e análise dos dados
Os dados foram tratados com recurso a estatística descritiva e da análise de conteúdo,
utilizando o Excel, o SPSS e a linguagem de programação Python 3.8.6 para análises não
paramétricas e cruzamento de variáveis.
Limitações
− Amostra restrita a incubadoras públicas;
JANUS.NET, e-journal of International Relations
e-ISSN: 1647-7251
VOL. 16, Nº. 2
Novembro 2025-abril 2026, pp. 346-363
O Processo de Incubação de Empresas para o Fomento do Empreendedorismo em Angola:
Na Visão dos Incubados
Manuel Conceição Da Silva Mendes
354
− Seleção não probabilística;
− Exclusividade de métodos quantitativos;
− Ausência de análises inferenciais avançadas.
Resultados
A atividade empreendedora na amostra apresenta maior incidência entre os 25 e 34
anos, com 42 empreendedores (66%). Seguem-se os 35 a 44 anos, com 11
empreendedores (17%), os 18 a 24 anos, com 10 (16%), e os 55 a 64 anos, com 1
(2%). Assim, 82% da amostra é composta por jovens empreendedores, evidenciando a
predominância da faixa etária mais jovem no cenário empreendedor.
Figura 1. Distribuição dos empreendedores por faixa etária
Analisando a frequência da faixa etária em relação ao nível de escolaridade, 40 (63%)
empreendedores têm grau de licenciatura: 28 na faixa de 25 e 34 anos; 6 de 35 a 44
anos, 4 de 18 a 24 anos e 1 de 55 a 64 anos. Apenas 4 empreendedores possuem o
grau de mestre: 2 na faixa de 25 a 34 anos e 2 de 35 a 44 anos. Além disso, 11
empreendedores de 25 a 34 anos têm formação técnica média, seguidos por 6 da faixa
de 18 a 24 anos e 3 da faixa de 35 a 44 anos, evidenciando a predominância de técnicos
médios entre os mais jovens.
Na investigação, constatou-se que 53 empresas possuem entre 1 e 10 colaboradores,
representando 83% da amostra. Apenas 11 empresas têm entre 10 e 100 colaboradores,
correspondendo a 17%. Quanto à dimensão, 43 empresas são microempresas (67%) e
21 são pequenas empresas (33%), conforme ilustrado no gráfico abaixo.
A análise temporal dos inquiridos mostrou que 48% das empresas atuam entre 3 a 5
anos, 22% entre 1 a 2 anos, 20% entre 0 a 1 ano, 5% entre 6 a 10 anos, e uma
porcentagem semelhante para aquelas com mais de 10 anos de atividade.
JANUS.NET, e-journal of International Relations
e-ISSN: 1647-7251
VOL. 16, Nº. 2
Novembro 2025-abril 2026, pp. 346-363
O Processo de Incubação de Empresas para o Fomento do Empreendedorismo em Angola:
Na Visão dos Incubados
Manuel Conceição Da Silva Mendes
355
Figura 2. Frequência da faixa etária por nível de escolaridade
Figura 3. Taxa de frequência do Número de Colaboradores e Dimensão da empresa
Figura 4. Tempo de actividade das empresas
JANUS.NET, e-journal of International Relations
e-ISSN: 1647-7251
VOL. 16, Nº. 2
Novembro 2025-abril 2026, pp. 346-363
O Processo de Incubação de Empresas para o Fomento do Empreendedorismo em Angola:
Na Visão dos Incubados
Manuel Conceição Da Silva Mendes
356
Quanto ao tempo de permanência na incubadora, 34% das empresas estão há menos de
6 meses, 25% por 1 ano, 16% por 3 anos, 14% por 2 anos, 8% por 4 anos, e 3% estão
incubadas há mais de 4 anos, conforme ilustrado no gráfico abaixo.
Figura 5. Taxa de frequência das empresas por tempo de residência
O processo de incubação em Angola envolve quatro fases, conforme ilustrado no gráfico
n.º 6 e de acordo com Oliveira (2009). Verificou-se que 64% das empresas estão na fase
de incubação, 27% na pré-incubação, 8% na pós-graduação e 2% na fase de graduação.
Figura 6. Taxa de frequência das empresas no processo de incubação
Sobre o tipo de conhecimento transferido entre incubadoras e empresas, o gráfico nº 7
mostra que 31% dos incubados receberam noções de empreendedorismo, 19% de
marketing, 17% de gestão de recursos humanos, 14% de comercialização, 10% de
gestão financeira, 6% de assistência jurídica e 2% de gestão estratégica.
JANUS.NET, e-journal of International Relations
e-ISSN: 1647-7251
VOL. 16, Nº. 2
Novembro 2025-abril 2026, pp. 346-363
O Processo de Incubação de Empresas para o Fomento do Empreendedorismo em Angola:
Na Visão dos Incubados
Manuel Conceição Da Silva Mendes
357
Figura 7. Tipo de conhecimento transferido pela incubadora
Conforme o gráfico nº 8, os empreendedores enfrentaram maior dificuldade no acesso a
financiamentos e investimentos, com 61%. Em seguida, 13% mencionaram a falta de
conhecimentos técnicos para elaborar o plano de negócios, 11% a ausência de
infraestruturas, 7% a baixa experiência em gestão, 6% a baixa qualificação dos
funcionários e 1% indicou pouco ou nenhum conhecimento de empreendedorismo.
Figura 8. Principais dificuldades das empresas durante o processo de incubação
O gráfico nº 9 destaca os contribuições das incubadoras para os incubados. O maior
benefício relatado pelos empreendedores foi o acesso a outras empresas incubadas, com
27% da amostra. Seguem-se os recursos tecnológicos (20%), ferramentas de gestão
(18%), desenvolvimento de marketing (17%), novos produtos (10%), acesso ao crédito
(5%) e 4% consideraram que o processo possibilitou
JANUS.NET, e-journal of International Relations
e-ISSN: 1647-7251
VOL. 16, Nº. 2
Novembro 2025-abril 2026, pp. 346-363
O Processo de Incubação de Empresas para o Fomento do Empreendedorismo em Angola:
Na Visão dos Incubados
Manuel Conceição Da Silva Mendes
358
Figura 9. Contributos sentidos durante o processo de Incubação a obtenção de divisas.
Discussão
Segundo o relatório GEM Angola 2018/19, a faixa etária predominante no
empreendedorismo angolano é de 25 a 34 anos, com cerca de 51% de empreendedores.
Em 2020/21, houve um aumento de 15 pontos percentuais, totalizando 66%. Essa
variável é crucial para o fomento do empreendedorismo, pois a amostra é
maioritariamente composta por jovens, que representam a força motriz do país. Os
resultados confirmam tendências do GEM (2018/19; 2020/21) quanto à predominância
de jovens empreendedores.
Para analisar a frequência da faixa etária em relação ao nível de escolaridade, a
investigação revela que, assim como no relatório GEM Angola 2016/17, a maior taxa de
Empreendedorismo por Atividade (TEA) ocorre entre aqueles com ensino superior
(licenciatura). Confirmação da relevância da formação académica no sucesso do
empreendedorismo (Ferreira et al., 2010).
Para verificar a relação entre o número de colaboradores e a classificação das empresas
conforme o Artigo 5º da Lei 30/11, observa-se que 83% têm entre 1 a 10 trabalhadores,
sendo classificadas como microempresas. No entanto, apenas 67% estão certificadas
como microempresas, revelando uma desatualização de 16% na certificação, o que viola
a referida lei. Isso representa um ponto fraco para o fomento do empreendedorismo em
Angola.
Em relação ao tempo de atividade das empresas, 48% das que estão em incubação em
Angola têm entre 3 a 5 anos de mercado. Além disso, 20% são empresas nascentes, com
até 1 ano, que aderiram às incubadoras devido a dificuldades na fase inicial. Conforme
Sequeira (2013), o processo facilita a inserção de start-ups no mercado, oferecendo
serviços a preços mais baixos, contribuindo simultaneamente para o desenvolvimento de
uma cultura empreendedora na sociedade, como destaca Caetano (2011).
Observou-se que empresas incubadas estão há mais de 4 anos na incubadora, o que
contrasta com Almeida (2014), que afirma que o processo de incubação normalmente
JANUS.NET, e-journal of International Relations
e-ISSN: 1647-7251
VOL. 16, Nº. 2
Novembro 2025-abril 2026, pp. 346-363
O Processo de Incubação de Empresas para o Fomento do Empreendedorismo em Angola:
Na Visão dos Incubados
Manuel Conceição Da Silva Mendes
359
dura até quatro anos, e para a Sociedade Portuguesa de Inovação – SPI (2021, p. 13) o
limita máximo é de 36 meses.
A maioria das empresas incubadas (64%) está na fase de incubação. Segundo Godim
(2009), essa fase é crucial para orientar as empresas no desenvolvimento do plano de
negócios, durante um período de dois anos, reduzindo o risco de insucesso e a
mortalidade prematura.
De acordo com Lavieri (2010), citado por Pereira (2019), a disseminação da educação
empreendedora e a inovação oferecem experiências enriquecedoras para
empreendedores e empresas emergentes, sustentando sua presença no mercado. Esses
conhecimentos aprimoram as empresas incubadas por meio da formação, contribuindo
para o desenvolvimento de empreendimentos inovadores e para a formação de
empreendedores autônomos, eficientes e bem-sucedidos.
As empresas que ingressam no mercado enfrentam diversas dificuldades, especialmente
no acesso a financiamentos, representando 61%. As dificuldades no financiamento
coincidem com estudos de Sarkar (2014) e Parish et al. (2023).
Limitações na gestão estratégica reforçam necessidade de mentoring (Motlhaudi, 2025).
Os incubados reconhecem os contributos em redes e recursos tecnológicos recebidos
durante o processo de incubação, confirmam achados de Rosado-Cuberoa et al. (2024).
Conclusão
O estudo evidenciou que o processo de Incubação de empresas constitui um instrumento
fundamental para o fomento do empreendedorismo em Angola, sobretudo entre os
jovens, que representam mais de 80% dos incubados. A predominância de
empreendedores com formação superior indica que a incubação tem potencial para
transformar capital humano qualificado em negócios sustentáveis, embora ainda haja
fragilidades no acesso ao financiamento e na transferência de conhecimentos de gestão
estratégica.
Do ponto de vista teórico, os resultados reforçam os modelos clássicos de Schumpeter e
Drucker ao confirmarem que a inovação, a formação e a gestão eficiente são
determinantes para a sobrevivência das empresas. A pesquisa acrescenta evidência
empírica ao debate sobre a relevância das incubadoras em economias emergentes, como
Angola, onde a literatura é ainda incipiente. Assim, contribui para preencher uma lacuna
académica e oferece subsídios para o avanço de estudos comparativos no contexto
africano.
No plano prático, ficou patente que as incubadoras geram valor ao proporcionar redes de
contacto, recursos tecnológicos e ferramentas de gestão. Contudo, a limitação no acesso
a crédito e a insuficiente formação em gestão estratégica revelam a necessidade de rever
e diversificar os serviços oferecidos. A prática das incubadoras deve evoluir para integrar
programas de mentoring, parcerias com universidades e maior aproximação com
investidores, criando um ecossistema mais robusto para os empreendedores.
Para os decisores políticos, os resultados apontam para a urgência de políticas públicas
que articulem incubadoras, instituições financeiras e programas de apoio à inovação. É
JANUS.NET, e-journal of International Relations
e-ISSN: 1647-7251
VOL. 16, Nº. 2
Novembro 2025-abril 2026, pp. 346-363
O Processo de Incubação de Empresas para o Fomento do Empreendedorismo em Angola:
Na Visão dos Incubados
Manuel Conceição Da Silva Mendes
360
necessário criar mecanismos de financiamento mais acessíveis, incentivos fiscais e linhas
de crédito específicas para empresas incubadas. Além disso, recomenda-se a
implementação de sistemas de certificação e acompanhamento rigoroso das incubadoras
públicas, de modo a aumentar a sua eficiência e o impacto na diversificação económica
do país.
Em síntese, esta investigação demonstra que as incubadoras de empresas são uma
alavanca estratégica para o fortalecimento do empreendedorismo em Angola. Ao mesmo
tempo, desafia académicos, gestores de incubadoras e formuladores de políticas a
reconfigurarem suas abordagens, de modo a transformar a incubação não apenas em
um espaço de sobrevivência de empresas, mas em um motor de inovação e
desenvolvimento sustentável.
Limitações do Estudo
- A amostra restringiu-se apenas a incubados de incubadoras públicas, o que limita a
generalização dos resultados.
- O enfoque exclusivo em dados quantitativos reduziu a possibilidade de compreender
em profundidade as experiências subjetivas dos empreendedores.
Contributos do Estudo
- Preenche uma lacuna na literatura sobre Incubação de empresas em Angola e em
economias africanas emergentes.
- Oferece evidência empírica inédita para a academia, fortalecendo o debate teórico sobre
o papel das incubadoras no fomento ao empreendedorismo.
- Apresenta recomendações práticas para a melhoria da atuação das incubadoras e para
a formulação de políticas públicas de apoio ao empreendedorismo.
Sugestões para futuras pesquisas
- Ampliar a amostra, incluindo incubadoras privadas;
- Complementar com métodos qualitativos;
- Aplicar análises estatísticas avançadas;
- Realizar estudos longitudinais;
- Comparar com outros contextos africanos.
Assim, a incubação deve ser entendida não apenas como espaço de sobrevivência
empresarial, mas como motor de inovação e de desenvolvimento sustentável em Angola.
JANUS.NET, e-journal of International Relations
e-ISSN: 1647-7251
VOL. 16, Nº. 2
Novembro 2025-abril 2026, pp. 346-363
O Processo de Incubação de Empresas para o Fomento do Empreendedorismo em Angola:
Na Visão dos Incubados
Manuel Conceição Da Silva Mendes
361
Referências
ALMEIDA, M. Leonardo (2014). A importância das incubadoras de Empresas na Formação
de Empresas Inovadoras: Um Estudo de Caso na Ipixel. Curso De Graduação Em
Engenharia De Produção. Universidade Federal De Juiz De Fora.
BAUMOL J. William (2009). Productive, Unproductive, and Destructive. The University of
Chicago Press. The Journal of Political Economy, Vol. 98, Nº 5, part 1 (Oct., 1990), pp.
893-921.
CAETANO A.; SANTOS C. S.; COSTA F. S. (2012). Psicologia do Empreendedor. Lisboa,
Ed. Mundos Sociais.
CAETANO, C. M. Dinis (2011). Incubadoras de Empresas e Modelos de Incubação em
Portugal: Incubadoras Regionais vs. Universitárias. Dissertação de Mestrado em
Economia da Inovação e Empreendedorismo apresentado na Universidade do Algarve.
Faculdade de Economia. Faro
CAMPOS, S. Graciélie (2017). A Importância da Equipe de Gestão Para o Desempenho
Institucional: Um Estudo Realizado em Incubadoras de Empresas na Alemanha, Áustria
e Brasil. Dissertação de Mestrado apresentada como requisito para obtenção do título de
Mestre em Desenvolvimento, na linha de pesquisa Gestão Empresarial. UNIJUÍ –
Universidade Regional do Noroeste do Estado do Rio Grande do Sul. IJUÍ – Brasil.
CORREIA, M. J. Sandra (2013). Empreendedorismo Cultural: o Arquivo visto sob o
objetivo de incubadora cultural/criativa. Dissertação para obtenção do Grau de Mestre
em Ciências Documentais. Universidade Da Beira Interior, Artes e Letras. Moçambique.
Correia, R., Marques, C. S., & Silva, G. M. (2024). Academic entrepreneurship
ecosystems: Systematic literature review and future research directions. Journal of the
Knowledge Economy, 15(3), 1145–1170. doi:10.1007/s13132-024-01819-x
FERNANDES, J. C. Ricardo (2014). Incubadora de Empresas – Construção Modular.
Dissertação para obtenção de Grau de Mestre em Arquitetura. Portimão – Portugal.
FERREIRA P. M.; SANTOS, C. J.; SERRA, R. F. (2010). Ser Empreendedor: Pensar, Criar
e Moldar a nova Empresa, 2ª edição.
FONSECA, L. M. Marcelo (2014). Análise das Incubadoras de Empresas de Base
Tecnológica como Promotora do Desenvolvimento Regional Brasileiro: Uma Abordagem
Teórica. XXII Worshop Amprotec 22 a 26 de Setembro. Belém do Pará – Brasil
FRANCO, J. O. B.; Gouvêa, J. B. (2016). A cronologia dos estudos sobre o
empreendedorismo. Revista de Empreendedorismo e Gestão de Pequenas Empresas, v.5,
n.3.
GEM – ANGOLA (2016/2017).
GONDIM, F. C. Dalton (2018). Suporte de Incubadoras para Empresas Assistidas no
Contexto da Inovação. Monografia II apresentada ao Curso de Finanças da Faculdade de
Economia, Administração, Actuária e Contabilidade (FEAAC) da Universidade Federal do
Ceará, como requisito parcial para obtenção do Título de Bacharel em Finanças. Fortaleza
– Brasil.
JANUS.NET, e-journal of International Relations
e-ISSN: 1647-7251
VOL. 16, Nº. 2
Novembro 2025-abril 2026, pp. 346-363
O Processo de Incubação de Empresas para o Fomento do Empreendedorismo em Angola:
Na Visão dos Incubados
Manuel Conceição Da Silva Mendes
362
GRIMALDI, Rosa; GRANDI, Alessandro (2005). Business incubators and new venture
creation: an assessment of incubating models. .
GUILLEN, I. Rebeca; VERAS, Manoel (2018). Processo de Incubação de empresas de base
tecnológica à luz da gestão de projectos: Um estudo de casos múltiplos. R.G. Secr.,
ESEC, São Paulo, v. 9, n. 2, p 126-157, Mai./Ago.
IBWE, E., & MWANTIMWA, K. (2025). Influence of ICT incubator on graduates’ Journal
of Innovation, 13(1), 1–20. doi:10.5585/iji.v13i1.26939
MANUEL, Leonildo; SIMÃO, Daniela (2018). A importância da Incubação de empresas:
Benchmarking no contexto Africano. Revista de Direito Comercial, p. 136-158.
MENDES, C. S. MANUEL (2024). As Incubadoras de Empresas para o Fomento do
Empreendedorismo em Angola. Tese apresentada para obtenção do grau de Doutor em
Gestão. Faculdade de Economía da Universidade Agostinho Neto. Luanda- Angola.
MOTLHAUDI, P. (2025). Apprenteneurship framework: A comprehensive support guide
for public business incubation. Southern African Journal of Entrepreneurship and Small
Business Management, 17(1), 1–14. doi:10.4102/sajesbm.v17i1.1000
PARISH, K., TCHOUMI, M., & NGUEMTA, C. (2023). The impact of incubators on the
success of innovative agribusinesses founded by youths in Cameroon. ESI Preprints, 380,
1–19. doi:10.19044/esipreprints.2023.04.380
PEREIRA, O. Marlon (2019). Proposta de Criação da Incubadora Tecnológica de Negócios
de Impacto Social do Instituto Federal de Brasília, Campus São Sebastião. Relatório
Técnico apresentado como requisito parcial para obtenção do título de Mestre do
Programa de Pós-Graduação em Propriedade Intelectual e Transferência de Tecnologia
para Inovação (PROFNIT) – ponto focal Universidade de Brasília - UnB. Brasil.
PINTO, F., ALVES, A., & ROLO, F. (2023). Creating a network of incubators in Angola:
Environment evaluation, structuring ideas, and first steps. In Business incubation and
entrepreneurial ecosystems: Cases and practices from Africa (pp. 122–145). Hershey,
PA: IGI Global. doi:10.4018/978-1-6684-8150-7.ch007
ROSADO-CUBEROA, A., HERNÁNDEZ, M., BLANCO-Jiménez, F., & FREIRE-Rubio, T.
(2024). Seeding young entrepreneurs: The role of business incubators. Journal of
Innovation & Knowledge, 9(2), 145–156. doi:10.1016/j.jik.2024.100393
SARAIVA, M. P. (2011). Empreendedorismo, 2ª ed. Coimbra, Imprensa da Universidade
de Coimbra.
SARKAR, S. (2014) Empreendedorismo e Inovação, 3ª ed. Lisboa Escolar Editora.
SEQUEIRA, S. P. André (2013). Plano de Negócios ICAT. Projecto de Mestrado em Gestão.
Instituto Universitário de Lisboa.
Sociedade Portuguesa de Inovação – SPI (2021). Estratégia da Incubadora de Empresas
de Santa Cruz das Flores. Santa Cruz das Flores - Portugal.
SOUSA, A. B. Marco (2019). A Importância Das Incubadoras De Empresas Para O
Desenvolvimento Do Empreendedorismo No Brasil. Revista Gestão em Foco - Edição nº
11.
JANUS.NET, e-journal of International Relations
e-ISSN: 1647-7251
VOL. 16, Nº. 2
Novembro 2025-abril 2026, pp. 346-363
O Processo de Incubação de Empresas para o Fomento do Empreendedorismo em Angola:
Na Visão dos Incubados
Manuel Conceição Da Silva Mendes
363
VALADÃO A. S. Rui (2017). Empreendedorismo de Base Tecnológica: O Estudo de Caso
do Instituto Pedro Nunes. Dissertação submetida como requisita parcial para obtenção
do grau de Mestre em Ciências Económicas e Empresariais, com especialização em
Marketing. Universidade dos Açores. Ponta Delgado – Portugal.
VERÍSSIMO, L. A. Vera (2011). Empreendedores à Força ou verdadeiros
empreendedores: As razões para empreender nos concelhos de Seia e Gouveia. Tese de
Mestrado para obtenção do grau de Mestre em Intervenção Social, Inovação e
Empreendedorismo. Universidade de Coimbra, Faculdade de Psicologia e de Ciências da
Educação e à Faculdade de Economia. Coimbra – Portugal.
World Bank Group & International Finance Corporation. (2023). Assessment of the
Angolan startup ecosystem. Washington, DC: IFC. Retrieved from https://www.ifc.org
OBSERVARE
Universidade Autónoma de Lisboa
e-ISSN: 1647-7251
VOL. 16, Nº. 2
November 2025-April 2026
364
THE INFLUENCE OF LOCAL ENTREPRENEURSHIP ON SOCIAL DEVELOPMENT: A
CASE STUDY OF SÃO TOMÉ AND PRÍNCIPE IN ACHIEVING THE SDGS
PEDRO CABRITA
pncabrita@gmail.com
With a degree in Management (Universidade Autónoma de Lisboa), a master’s in development
studies (ISCTE-IUL, Portugal) and currently in the PhD programme in International Studies
(ISCTE-IUL), he has been deepening his knowledge, learning, practices and useful tools in
solving some of the world's main sustainable development challenges. It seeks to distinguish
itself through the joint relationship between theory and practice, developing both scientific work
and local, regional, national and international development by participating in projects, trainings,
activities and work teams.  He is currently collaborating with a social solidarity cooperative
(Aproximar) in the management of development projects in the economic, employability and
entrepreneurship sector.
Abstract
This study analyses the role of local entrepreneurship in social development in São Tomé and
Príncipe, focusing on how entrepreneurs can contribute to the Sustainable Development Goals
(SDGs). The research was based on field research, conducted through a structured
questionnaire applied to 100 entrepreneurs, selected representatively based on the latest
national census. The instrument included closed questions on the main social indicators of the
SDGs, allowing comparisons between the entrepreneurial population and the general
population. The questions were adapted to the local context, considering educational and
linguistic limitations, and validated with São Tomé nationals. The results show that
entrepreneurs drive progress in the SDGs, exceeding the population average in 15 of the 24
indicators analysed. The study highlights how entrepreneurial ecosystems can be better
leveraged to promote sustainable development and social inclusion.
Keywords
Local Entrepreneurship, Economic Growth, Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), Small
Island Developing States (SIDS), International Studies.
Resumo
Este estudo analisa o papel do empreendedorismo local no desenvolvimento social em São
Tomé e Príncipe, analisando como os empreendedores podem contribuir para os Objetivos de
Desenvolvimento Sustentável (ODS). A pesquisa foi baseada em investigação de campo,
realizada por meio de um questionário estruturado aplicado a 100 empreendedores,
selecionados de forma representativa com base no último censo nacional. O instrumento
incluiu perguntas fechadas sobre os principais indicadores sociais dos ODS, permitindo
comparações entre a população empreendedora e a população no geral. As perguntas foram
adaptadas ao contexto local, considerando as limitações educacionais e linguísticas, e
validadas com cidadãos de São Tomé. Os resultados mostram que os empreendedores
impulsionam o progresso nos ODS, excedendo a média da população em 15 dos 24
indicadores analisados. O estudo destaca como os ecossistemas empreendedores podem ser
melhor aproveitados para promover o desenvolvimento sustentável e a inclusão social.
JANUS.NET, e-journal of International Relations
e-ISSN: 1647-7251
VOL. 16, Nº. 2
November 2025-April 2026, pp. 364-386
The Influence of Local Entrepreneurship on Social Development: A Case Study of São Tomé
and Príncipe in Achieving the SDGS
Pedro Cabrita
365
Palavras-chave
Empreendedorismo local, Crescimento económico, Objetivos de Desenvolvimento Sustentável
(ODS), Pequenos Estados Insulares em Desenvolvimento (PEID), Estudos Internacionais.
How to cite this article
Cabrita, Pedro (2025). The Influence of Local Entrepreneurship on Social Development: A Case
Study of São Tomé and Príncipe in Achieving the SDGS. Janus.net, e-journal of international
relations. VOL. 16, Nº. 2, November 2025-April 2026, pp. 364-386. DOI
https://doi.org/10.26619/1647-7251.16.2.20
Article submitted on 19th March 2025 and accepted for publication on 19th August 2025.
JANUS.NET, e-journal of International Relations
e-ISSN: 1647-7251
VOL. 16, Nº. 2
November 2025-April 2026, pp. 364-386
The Influence of Local Entrepreneurship on Social Development: A Case Study of São Tomé
and Príncipe in Achieving the SDGS
Pedro Cabrita
366
THE INFLUENCE OF LOCAL ENTREPRENEURSHIP ON SOCIAL
DEVELOPMENT: A CASE STUDY OF SÃO TOMÉ AND PRÍNCIPE
IN ACHIEVING THE SDGS
PEDRO CABRITA
Introduction
Local entrepreneurship is increasingly recognized for its role in addressing social and
environmental challenges, particularly in developing countries. This study examines the
impact of local entrepreneurship on environmental protection and achieving Sustainable
Development Goals (SDGs) in São Tomé and Príncipe, a small island nation with a unique
context. By analyzing the daily practices of local entrepreneurs, this research seeks to
understand their influence on SDGs related to water, climate, marine life, and terrestrial
life, and ultimately contribute to the broader understanding of how local initiatives can
support international development goals.
Literature review
The role of local entrepreneurship in social development
Entrepreneurship has traditionally been recognized as an economic growth and
innovation catalyst. However, its pivotal role in driving social development is now gaining
significant attention (Urbano et al, 2019). By utilizing local knowledge, networks, and
resources, entrepreneurs enhance economic resilience, strengthen social infrastructure,
and promote inclusive development (Ribeiro-Soriano, 2017). They create jobs, drive
innovation, and empower communities, making entrepreneurship a vital tool for
addressing social disparities and fostering societal progress (Yani, A., & Ausat, A. M. A.
2024).
Entrepreneurial activities often address the immediate socio-economic needs of local
communities while creating opportunities for employment and innovation (Toxirovna,
2024). As previously noted by Audretsch and Keilbach (2004), local entrepreneurs act as
change agents, generating economic dynamism that directly improves the quality of life
in their communities. This is particularly impactful in rural and underserved areas, where
entrepreneurial initiatives often bridge gaps in public services and infrastructure
(Henderson, 2002, Ajide, F. M. 2020, Robertson, et al 2020).
Entrepreneurship also fosters a sense of ownership and empowerment, encouraging self-
reliance within communities (Peredo & Chrisman, 2006, Ademokun, F., & Ajayi, O. 2012.
Amri, et al, 2024.). Small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs), which are often the
backbone of local entrepreneurship, play a critical role in skill development, enhancing
JANUS.NET, e-journal of International Relations
e-ISSN: 1647-7251
VOL. 16, Nº. 2
November 2025-April 2026, pp. 364-386
The Influence of Local Entrepreneurship on Social Development: A Case Study of São Tomé
and Príncipe in Achieving the SDGS
Pedro Cabrita
367
human capital, and building community resilience (Morrison, et al, 2017, Bosma et al.,
2020).
At the same time social entrepreneurship, a specialized form of local entrepreneurship,
aims to tackle societal challenges such as inequality, unemployment, and limited access
to essential services (Phillips et al, 2015, Phan Tan, L. 2022). With this, social
entrepreneurs establish ventures that prioritize social value over profit, addressing
systemic issues through innovative solutions (Mair and Marti 2006). For instance,
initiatives focusing on marginalized groups, such as women (Assaf, A. 2024), youth (Ong,
2021), and people with disabilities (Ortiz, 2021), not only create economic opportunities
but also promote social inclusion and cohesion (Sundin, 2011).
In the broader context of social development, social entrepreneurs often collaborate with
local governments, NGOs, and community organizations to amplify their impact
(Kovanen, 2021). Their work directly contributes to achieving societal goals, including
the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), by addressing social inequities and fostering
inclusive growth (UN, 2015).
Additionally, local entrepreneurship plays a vital role in preserving and promoting cultural
heritage (Brinia, et al, 2024). Entrepreneurs leverage traditional knowledge and local
resources to develop businesses that celebrate (Mars, 2022) and sustain cultural
identities (Cohen & Winn, 2007). This is particularly relevant in regions with rich cultural
histories, where entrepreneurship can serve as a bridge between modernization and
heritage preservation (Lyon & Sepulveda, 2009).
Despite its potential, the impact of local entrepreneurship on social development faces
significant challenges, such as limited access to capital (Odeyeme, et al, 2024),
inadequate infrastructure (Ratten, V., 2023), and unsupportive policy environments can
hinder the growth and influence of local businesses (Bruton et al., 2010). Moreover, while
entrepreneurship can promote inclusivity, uneven access to entrepreneurial opportunities
may inadvertently reinforce social inequalities (Welter et al., 2017).
Empirical evidence underscores the connection between local entrepreneurship and social
development (Buratti, N., Sillig, C., & Albanese, M., 2022). In developing regions,
entrepreneurial ventures often drive economic diversification, reduce unemployment,
and empower vulnerable populations (Naudé, 2010). For instance, microfinance
initiatives in Africa and South Asia have enabled individuals, particularly women, to start
small businesses, significantly improving household incomes and overall community well-
being (Yunus, 2020). Case studies from Latin America further illustrate how community-
based enterprises contribute to sustainable resource management and social equity
(Peredo & McLean, 2006, Batista et al, 2022). These examples highlight the
transformative potential of entrepreneurship in addressing both social and environmental
challenges.
Key contributions of local entrepreneurship to social development include:
− Economic Empowerment and Job Creation: Entrepreneurship empowers
marginalized communities by creating jobs, increasing income levels, and improving
living standards. Small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) are often the primary
drivers of economic activity in underserved areas, providing opportunities that uplift
JANUS.NET, e-journal of International Relations
e-ISSN: 1647-7251
VOL. 16, Nº. 2
November 2025-April 2026, pp. 364-386
The Influence of Local Entrepreneurship on Social Development: A Case Study of São Tomé
and Príncipe in Achieving the SDGS
Pedro Cabrita
368
entire communities (Kulmie et al, 2023, Adenutsi, 2023, Enaifoghe, & Vezi-Magigaba,
2023).
− Social Inclusion and Equity: By breaking down systemic barriers to economic
participation, entrepreneurship fosters inclusivity and equity. Initiatives led by women,
youth, and minority groups often address societal issues such as education, health, and
gender equality, while driving economic participation (Khan et al, 2023, Prasetyo et al,
2023, Williams, T. W. (2024).
− Innovation for Social Progress: Local entrepreneurs develop innovative solutions
tailored to the specific needs of their communities. From affordable healthcare to
renewable energy projects, entrepreneurial efforts drive technological and social
innovation, directly contributing to broader societal goals (Kostakis and Tsagarakis, 2022,
Si, et al, 2023, de Lucas Ancillo and Gavrila 2023).
Local entrepreneurship plays a crucial role in driving both economic and social
development, by fostering innovation, creating job opportunities, and promoting social
inclusion, local entrepreneurs help build resilient and empowered communities.
Entrepreneurship plays a crucial role in driving social development, particularly in regions
facing economic and social challenges (Méndez-Picazo, et al 2021, Aljuwaiber, 2021, Anh,
et al, 2022). By promoting like already refereed innovation, creating job opportunities,
and addressing pressing societal needs, entrepreneurship becomes a key factor in
achieving sustainable development, contributing to employment generation and
livelihood enhancement, especially in underserved areas where small and medium-sized
enterprises (SMEs) form the foundation of local economies (Rumasukun and Noch, 2023).
Research has shown a strong correlation between entrepreneurial ventures, reduced
poverty levels, and improved living standards (Si et al, 2021).
Beyond its economic impact, entrepreneurship fosters social inclusion and strengthens
community resilience, by focusing on inclusivity, entrepreneurial ventures create
opportunities for marginalized groups such as women, youth, minorities and cultural (Qu
and Zollet, 2023). For instance, women-led enterprises are often associated with
increased household incomes and greater investments in education and healthcare, while
entrepreneurial activities help build networks that enhance trust and cooperation within
communities (Okolie et al, 2022, Simba et al, 2023).
By addressing local systemic barriers and fostering supportive ecosystems,
entrepreneurship can play a key role in achieving both local and global social
development goals, ensuring sustainable and inclusive progress for future generations.
Entrepreneurship for the Social Dimension SDGs
Focusing on the impacts of entrepreneurship on social development, which can be defined
as a condition of progress, equity, and inclusion that enables individuals and communities
to achieve their full potential, entrepreneurship has referred before garnered significant
attention. This is due to the increasing emphasis on social impact businesses and
JANUS.NET, e-journal of International Relations
e-ISSN: 1647-7251
VOL. 16, Nº. 2
November 2025-April 2026, pp. 364-386
The Influence of Local Entrepreneurship on Social Development: A Case Study of São Tomé
and Príncipe in Achieving the SDGS
Pedro Cabrita
369
practices that aim to address societal challenges, such as poverty, inequality, and access
to education and healthcare, while fostering innovation and economic growth.
However, the understanding of how local entrepreneurial initiatives can address grand
societal challenges, often framed through frameworks like the UN Sustainable
Development Goals (SDGs), it’s not clear, creating the opportunity of studying more the
real impact of local entrepreneurs on solving local problems that are a world concern.
Among the 17 SDGs identified (2015), the social dimension encompasses goals aimed at
promoting equity, justice, and well-being, such as eradicating poverty, ensuring quality
education, achieving gender equality, and reducing inequalities, and can be represented
by:
− SDG 1 (No Poverty): Aims to eradicate poverty in all forms by 2030, focusing on
income deprivation, access to basic services, and resilience to shocks. Key strategies
include social protection systems, equitable resource access, and climate adaptation.
− SDG 2 (Zero Hunger): Seeks to end hunger and malnutrition while promoting
sustainable agriculture. Targets include improving food access, doubling small-scale
farmers' productivity, and enhancing agricultural resilience.
− SDG 3 (Good Health and Well-Being): Focuses on reducing preventable diseases,
improving healthcare access, and addressing health disparities. Goals include
lowering maternal and child mortality and combating epidemics.
− SDG 4 (Quality Education): Ensures inclusive, equitable education and lifelong
learning opportunities. It targets eliminating education disparities and promoting
global citizenship.
− SDG 5 (Gender Equality): Aims to empower women and girls by eliminating
discrimination, violence, and harmful practices while ensuring equal opportunities in
leadership, education, and healthcare.
− SDG 10 (Reduced Inequalities): Addresses economic and social inequalities within
and among nations by promoting inclusion, equal opportunities, and fair resource
distribution.
These SDGs are essential for fostering social development by addressing critical issues
such as poverty, inequality, education, health, and gender equity. They aim to create
inclusive societies where everyone has access to opportunities, resources, and services
necessary for a dignified life. By prioritizing social justice, equality, and empowerment,
these goals lay the foundation for resilient and cohesive communities, ensuring a fairer
and more equitable future for generations to come.
São Tomé and Príncipe context
The decision to focus on a case study led to the choice of field research, as it allows for
the collection of specific data and a deeper understanding of the actual conditions on the
ground. This approach then prompted a reflective process, during which various regional
JANUS.NET, e-journal of International Relations
e-ISSN: 1647-7251
VOL. 16, Nº. 2
November 2025-April 2026, pp. 364-386
The Influence of Local Entrepreneurship on Social Development: A Case Study of São Tomé
and Príncipe in Achieving the SDGS
Pedro Cabrita
370
options were considered, ultimately leading to the selection of São Tomé and Príncipe for
its alignment with the achievement of the SDGs.
The strategy for this research began by identifying the continent where such a study
would have the most relevance. The primary criterion was the Human Development Index
(HDI), a key indicator for measuring societal development (OWID, 2024). The aim was
to target a region with significant development challenges, as this would increase the
potential impact of the study’s conclusions, given the pressing economic, social, and
environmental issues (Ballew, et al. 2019).
Upon reviewing the HDI data, it was clear that Africa, with 28 of the 33 lowest-ranked
countries in 2024 (OWID, 2024), faced the greatest difficulties. Given Africa's vast size
of 30,370,000 square kilometers, the diversity of its cultures, societies, and geography
is immense (Barros, 1991). This necessitated the search for a cultural group with
similarities to the Portuguese language and customs, which would ease the field research
process and provide richer, more intimate data collection.
This criterion led to the selection of the Portuguese-speaking African Countries (PALOP),
which include Cape Verde, Guinea-Bissau, Angola, Mozambique, and São Tomé and
Príncipe. After evaluating the geographical, political, economic, social, and environmental
conditions of these five countries, it was clear that a smaller nation would facilitate more
effective data collection and analysis. Consequently, Guinea-Bissau was excluded due to
political instability, leaving Cape Verde and São Tomé and Príncipe as the main options.
Analyzing UN reports on SDG performance for both countries revealed that São Tomé
and Príncipe, with its smaller geographic size and three islands compared to Cape Verde’s
nine, was better suited for field research.
UN reports were chosen for this analysis because they offer a comprehensive, reliable,
and regularly updated overview of efforts to address global challenges (UNSDCF, 2023).
São Tomé and Príncipe, an island nation in the Gulf of Guinea off Central Africa’s west
coast, is made up of two main islands, São Tomé and Príncipe, located 140 kilometers
apart and about 250 kilometers from Gabon (Atlas, 2011). With a population of
approximately 204,454 (2018), São Tomé and Príncipe is the second least populous
country in Africa and the smallest Portuguese-speaking country (CIA, 2023). Although
classified as an underdeveloped country, it is expected to be reclassified as a middle-
income nation by the UN by 2024 (UN, 2020).
STP's Social Reality
Despite some progress in certain socioeconomic indicators, São Tomé and Príncipe
continue to face persistent social inequalities. Poverty remains widespread, with many
families dependent on subsistence farming. While access to healthcare and education has
improved, these services are still limited, especially in rural areas. The gap between
urban and rural regions intensifies disparities, with services and opportunities
concentrated in the capital, São Tomé (WBG, 2024).
The healthcare system grapples with challenges such as inadequate infrastructure, a
shortage of medical professionals, and a reliance on external aid. Common health issues
include malaria, respiratory infections, and malnutrition. Although life expectancy has
JANUS.NET, e-journal of International Relations
e-ISSN: 1647-7251
VOL. 16, Nº. 2
November 2025-April 2026, pp. 364-386
The Influence of Local Entrepreneurship on Social Development: A Case Study of São Tomé
and Príncipe in Achieving the SDGS
Pedro Cabrita
371
risen due to healthcare improvements, progress is still slow (Uhatela, 2022). Education
is a priority, with the government aiming for universal primary education. However, high
dropout rates, a lack of resources, and limited access to higher education hinder the
country’s development prospects. Educational reform is necessary to address these
challenges and equip the population with the skills needed for a modern economy (Luísa,
2022). Since gaining independence in 1975, São Tomé and Príncipe has evolved into a
multi-party democracy, with regular elections indicating relative political stability
compared to other African nations (Sanches, 2022). However, issues like corruption and
inefficiencies in public administration continue to pose challenges. Civil society
organizations play a crucial role in addressing social issues and advocating for greater
transparency and accountability (Violante, 2022). Despite these challenges, São Tomé
and Príncipe benefits from strong social cohesion, which is rooted in its shared cultural
identity and tight-knit communities. This social unity provides a solid foundation for
collective action to tackle developmental challenges and create a more inclusive society
(Berthet, 2012).
Insularity is a key factor in the development of São Tomé and Príncipe. As a Small Island
Developing State (SIDS), the country faces structural constraints such as a small
domestic market, dependence on imports, vulnerability to external shocks and exposure
to extreme weather events (UN, 2025). These structural conditions shape not only
economic policy but also entrepreneurial practices, forcing local agents to adopt
innovation and resilience strategies adapted to the island context. The public policy
framework in São Tomé and Príncipe is strongly influenced by the 2020–2024 National
Plan for Sustainable Development, coordinated by the Ministry of Planning, Finance and
Blue Economy (PNDS, 2020). This document establishes economic diversification,
promotion of the private sector and enhancement of the blue economy as strategic
growth priorities. Among the areas identified are tourism, sustainable agriculture,
fisheries, and renewable energy, which are considered drivers of innovation and
employment.
In conclusion, the social landscape of São Tomé and Príncipe is marked by both resilience
and vulnerability. Overcoming its developmental challenges will require targeted policies,
international collaboration, and the empowerment of its people to fully unlock the nation's
potential.
Entrepreneurship in STP
Entrepreneurship in São Tomé and Príncipe is predominantly informal and concentrated
in subsistence activities such as agriculture, handicrafts and local commerce (UNDP,
2022). Studies show that around 80 per cent of businesses in the country are micro and
small, often run by families. These companies face challenges related to limited access
to credit, poor infrastructure and low levels of technical training (African Development
Bank, 2021).
Despite the limitations, there is growing interest in social entrepreneurship, with
initiatives focused on areas such as sustainable tourism, environmental conservation and
renewable energies (Cardoso et al., 2016). Tourism is one of the most important sectors
of the São Tomé economy, contributing around 11% of GDP and directly employing
JANUS.NET, e-journal of International Relations
e-ISSN: 1647-7251
VOL. 16, Nº. 2
November 2025-April 2026, pp. 364-386
The Influence of Local Entrepreneurship on Social Development: A Case Study of São Tomé
and Príncipe in Achieving the SDGS
Pedro Cabrita
372
thousands of people (UNSDCF, 2023). The potential of ecotourism, community-based
tourism and the promotion of local culture has attracted both foreign investment and
local entrepreneurial initiatives. Entrepreneurs in areas such as sustainable
accommodation, eco-guiding and traditional cuisine demonstrate the sector's capacity to
generate economic value while contributing to environmental preservation and social
inclusion. These areas have the potential to stimulate the economy and at the same time
address issues of environmental and social sustainability. Entrepreneurs in São Tomé and
Príncipe face several obstacles, including:
− Access to finance: Local banks have a low capacity to provide affordable credit, which
limits business expansion (World Bank Group, 2020).
− Education and Training: The lack of specific training programmes in entrepreneurial
skills prevents local entrepreneurs from becoming professionals (UNESCO, 2024).
− Limited infrastructure: Infrastructure problems, such as access to reliable electricity
and transport, make it difficult for businesses to operate efficiently (UNDP, 2022).
− Despite the challenges, São Tomé and Príncipe presents significant opportunities for
entrepreneurship:
− Sustainable Tourism: Unique biodiversity and ecotourism potential have attracted
foreign investors and local entrepreneurs (Brito, 2020, World Tourism Organization,
2022).
− Agriculture and Agroindustry: Agricultural modernisation projects, including organic
cocoa production, show potential for adding value to local production chains (FAO,
2020).
− Digital Entrepreneurship: With increased access to the internet, there are emerging
opportunities for startups in areas such as e-commerce and digital service provision
(Pontes, 2022).
Programmes led by international organisations such as the UNDP and the African
Development Bank have fostered entrepreneurship in São Tomé and Príncipe. These
initiatives aim to improve access to finance, empower entrepreneurs and develop resilient
value chains. In addition, the local government is working to promote policies that
incentivise the private sector and attract foreign investment (UNDP, 2022).
International cooperation plays a structural role in São Tomé's entrepreneurial
ecosystem. The United Nations Cooperation Framework for Sustainable Development in
São Tomé and Príncipe 2023–2027 (UNSDCF, 2023) sets priorities around green growth,
social inclusion and climate resilience. Programmes from the African Development Bank,
the European Union and Portuguese cooperation have fostered access to finance, training
and infrastructure.
Entrepreneurship in São Tomé and Príncipe faces considerable challenges, but has
enormous potential to boost socio-economic development. Building a stronger
entrepreneurial ecosystem requires integrated efforts in training, access to finance and
improving infrastructure. Fostering entrepreneurship in strategic areas, such as
JANUS.NET, e-journal of International Relations
e-ISSN: 1647-7251
VOL. 16, Nº. 2
November 2025-April 2026, pp. 364-386
The Influence of Local Entrepreneurship on Social Development: A Case Study of São Tomé
and Príncipe in Achieving the SDGS
Pedro Cabrita
373
sustainable tourism and agro-industry, can promote the country's economic growth and
sustainability, in line with the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs).
Field Research - Methods
SDG indicators
The question, "What is the influence of Local Development due to Entrepreneurship in
achieving the SDGs?" serves as the basis for analysis. To answer it, understanding how
the United Nations assesses progress toward the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)
is essential. The UN uses a structured approach with over 230 global indicators approved
by the UN Statistical Commission to measure progress across all 17 SDGs. These
indicators are disaggregated by factors such as gender, age, location, and economic
status to ensure inclusivity. Progress is summarized in reports like the Global Sustainable
Development Report (GSDR) and the annual SDG Progress Report, which highlight
advancements, gaps, and priority areas. Member states also present Voluntary National
Reviews (VNRs) during the High-Level Political Forum (HLPF), outlining national progress
and challenges.
Data for these reports is collected through partnerships with organizations such as the
OECD, World Bank, IMF, and UN agencies like UNICEF and UNESCO. Countries adapt
global indicators to local contexts, with national statistics agencies playing a key role.
The UN has also embraced technologies like big data and satellite imagery to improve
data collection in challenging regions. A public database provides detailed statistics for
follow-ups at global, regional, and national levels. Tools like the SDG Index and
Dashboards visually rank countries' performances using a "traffic light" system, while
SDG Trend Panels track whether countries are on track to meet goals by 2030 based on
historical growth rates. The HLPF serves as the main platform for reviewing SDG
progress, fostering discussions on challenges, best practices, and shared experiences.
Image 1. SDG indicator panels SDG indicator panels
Source: UN SDG Progress Report, 2024
Review of indicators
The UN's comprehensive system for tracking SDG progress faces significant challenges,
particularly in the context of entrepreneurship and its impact on achieving the SDGs.
Despite the robust global indicators, reports, partnerships, and innovative monitoring
technologies employed by the UN, there are notable data gaps that hinder comprehensive
comparative analyses.
In São Tomé and Príncipe, which ranks 118th out of 167 countries with an overall SDG
score of 63, the situation is particularly challenging. The country faces major risks and
stagnant progress in several social SDGs, including SDG 1 (No Poverty), SDG 2 (Zero
JANUS.NET, e-journal of International Relations
e-ISSN: 1647-7251
VOL. 16, Nº. 2
November 2025-April 2026, pp. 364-386
The Influence of Local Entrepreneurship on Social Development: A Case Study of São Tomé
and Príncipe in Achieving the SDGS
Pedro Cabrita
374
Hunger), SDG 3 (Good Health and Well-being), SDG 4 (Quality Education), SDG 5
(Gender Equality), and SDG 10 (Reduced Inequalities).
The lack of specific data on entrepreneurs presents a significant obstacle in understanding
their role in environmental protection and broader SDG achievement. To address this
gap, a focused approach on collecting data from entrepreneurs—defined as individuals
or groups running operational businesses as their primary income source—has been
proposed.
This methodology aims to enable a comparative analysis between entrepreneurs and the
general population, providing insights into how local entrepreneurship influences
environmental protection and contributes to SDG achievement in São Tomé and Príncipe.
Image 2. Indicator dashboards of São Tomé’s People SDG 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 in 2024
Source - UN SDG Progress Report 2024
The methodology was grounded in the Sustainable Development Report 2024 (UN, 2024)
and focused on identifying two indicators for each SDG with the poorest performance
across two dimensions. This selection of the two weakest indicators aligns with the
research objective of analyzing solutions to global challenges. By targeting the indicators
with the worst outcomes, any improvement will be more apparent. In contrast, using
indicators with average or positive results would limit meaningful comparisons.
The following indicators were selected for the four environmentally focused SDGs:
Table 1. Dashboards of São Tomé’s SDG 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 and 10 in 2024
Source - Data organized by the Author based on data from UN SDG Progress Report 2024
JANUS.NET, e-journal of International Relations
e-ISSN: 1647-7251
VOL. 16, Nº. 2
November 2025-April 2026, pp. 364-386
The Influence of Local Entrepreneurship on Social Development: A Case Study of São Tomé
and Príncipe in Achieving the SDGS
Pedro Cabrita
375
In this table, it should be noted that the indicator ‘Traffic deaths (per 100,000
population)’, which in the 2024 report appears with a rating of ‘Moderately Improving’
and a trend of ‘On track or Maintaining’, was initially chosen because in the 2023 report
it had values for the ‘Major Challenges’ rating with a trend of ‘Decreasing’, having values
of 27.9 in 2019 data, making it one of the worst indicators of SDG 3 in STP, a situation
that has seen an extremely positive evolution, changing to the current values. This
improvement was only made public after the field investigation, which meant that the
indicator could not be changed, so we are keeping the same indicator, which can be
analysed.
Research Methodology and Analysis
Based on the identified indicators and the absence of national data on entrepreneurs in
São Tomé, it was determined that documentary analysis would not be feasible,
necessitating field research to gather the required data for comparison. Various data
collection methods were considered, including direct observation, interviews,
questionnaires and surveys, focus groups, participant diaries, and ethnographic
approaches.
Given the constraints of a 15-day timeframe for fieldwork and the need for nationally
representative data, the use of a questionnaire was deemed the most suitable approach.
This method not only facilitated efficient data collection but also allowed for brief direct
observations of working conditions.
To ensure an equitable and representative analysis, a sample size of 100 respondents
was established, enabling robust future analyses. The distribution of entrepreneurs to be
surveyed was determined based on population data from the most recent census (2017).
Table 2. Coverage plan for sectoral and regional diversity in the purposive sample for a
population of n=100
Source - Data organised by the Author based on data from STP census 2017
JANUS.NET, e-journal of International Relations
e-ISSN: 1647-7251
VOL. 16, Nº. 2
November 2025-April 2026, pp. 364-386
The Influence of Local Entrepreneurship on Social Development: A Case Study of São Tomé
and Príncipe in Achieving the SDGS
Pedro Cabrita
376
The questionnaire was structured into four sections (annexes) to provide a
comprehensive understanding of the reality:
1. Description of the Respondent: Collected individual data regarding personal and
family contexts to enable generic comparisons between groups.
2. Description of the Business: Gathered information about the entrepreneur’s
organization to facilitate comparative analysis between different businesses.
3. Closed-Answer Questions on the SDGs: Used limited-response options to
quantitatively measure trends and assess progress on the selected SDGs.
4. Open-Ended Questions on the SDGs: Allowed unlimited responses to qualitatively
capture respondents’ opinions and perspectives on the SDGs.
For the closed-response section, adjustments were made following consultations with
São Tomense nationals to accommodate the country’s low education levels. The
questions were adapted for clarity and simplicity, with each entrepreneur required to
answer two questions for each SDG indicator:
− Whether the current situation could be categorized as "Yes," "No," or "More or less."
− Whether the situation since becoming an entrepreneur had "improved significantly,"
"improved slightly," "remained the same," or "worsened."
Responses were compiled and assigned values, allowing an average value to be
calculated for each indicator. These averages, divided as necessary, corresponded to the
predefined indicators established by the UN. The resulting values formed the basis for
subsequent analyses.
Table 3. Question values per answer of the survey
Source - Data organized by the Author based on data from UN SDG Progress Report 2024
JANUS.NET, e-journal of International Relations
e-ISSN: 1647-7251
VOL. 16, Nº. 2
November 2025-April 2026, pp. 364-386
The Influence of Local Entrepreneurship on Social Development: A Case Study of São Tomé
and Príncipe in Achieving the SDGS
Pedro Cabrita
377
These values were selected to enable a consistent and well-founded basis for analysis.
By calculating averages, the results could be categorized into the following response
groups for further interpretation.
Table 4. Answers values per answer of the survey
Source - Data organised by the Author based on data from UN SDG Progress Report 2024
The two questions for each indicator had to be adjusted to preserve the objective of the
indicator and at the same time align with local reality, vocabulary and level of knowledge.
This change was necessary to ensure that entrepreneurs understood the question being
analysed and that the questionnaire could continue uninterrupted. Some of the questions
were changed in order to preserve the original meaning of the question, even if they
were referred to in alternative ways. With this adaptation, it should be noted that in the
first two questions it was necessary to convert from dollars to dobras, the national
currency of STP. In the case of SDG indicator 5, the two questions ‘Ratio of average years
of schooling received between women and men (%)’ and ‘Ratio of labour force
participation rate between women and men (%)’, due to their similar placement of the
question, mainly changed the theme to ‘Should men and women have the same
opportunities at school and at work?’, thus managing to assess together these which had
the same results in the UN report. After a first adaptation, the questionnaire was also
presented to the São Tomenses to validate the perceptibility and suitability of the
questions, which after a final revision resulted in the version used.
To enable comparison between the two dashboards, an analysis system was developed
to assess progress based on rating and trend levels. This system evaluates 12
parameters, reflecting the evolution of levels within the available options. The evolution
can be categorized as negative, neutral, positive, or not applicable. For positive and
negative progress, the difference may involve three parameters or an improvement of 1,
2, or 3 levels.
JANUS.NET, e-journal of International Relations
e-ISSN: 1647-7251
VOL. 16, Nº. 2
November 2025-April 2026, pp. 364-386
The Influence of Local Entrepreneurship on Social Development: A Case Study of São Tomé
and Príncipe in Achieving the SDGS
Pedro Cabrita
378
Table 5. Questions adapted based on the dashboards of São Tomé’s SDG 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 in
2024
Source - Data organised by the Author based on data from UN SDG Progress Report 2024
Table 6. Analyse system to compare the evolution according to rating and trend levels
Source Data organised by the Author based on data from UN SDG Progress Report 2024
Validity of the results
The validity of the results may be affected by the specific focus on entrepreneurs as a
distinct population group, which may not fully align with broader population-level
indicators. Additionally, differences between the original indicator criteria and those
adapted for this study could limit the comparability of the datasets.
Nevertheless, these findings provide valuable insights into the entrepreneurial ecosystem
and its dynamics. They offer a detailed profile of entrepreneurs, emphasizing their unique
challenges and contributions. While the results may not be entirely generalizable to the
broader population, they highlight the significant role of entrepreneurship in addressing
societal challenges and advancing development objectives. This perspective enriches
discussions on the potential of entrepreneurship as a driver of social progress, particularly
in the context of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs).
JANUS.NET, e-journal of International Relations
e-ISSN: 1647-7251
VOL. 16, Nº. 2
November 2025-April 2026, pp. 364-386
The Influence of Local Entrepreneurship on Social Development: A Case Study of São Tomé
and Príncipe in Achieving the SDGS
Pedro Cabrita
379
Results and Discussion
Table 7. Comparison of Dashboards of São Tomé’s SDG 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 results
Source - Data organised by the Author based on data from UN SDG Progress Report 2024 and
field research survey results
SDG 1 - No Poverty
Comparing the evolution of ODS 1, it is possible to see that the two indicators, associated
with the amount received in terms of remuneration $2.15 or $3. 65/day , had a similar
rating and trend, being Major Challenges in the case of the rating and Stagnating in the
case of the trend, showing that this remains a major challenge with no great prospect of
positive development for the general population. These values are quite different from
those achieved by the entrepreneurial population, which obtained SDG Achieved for both
indicators, with regard to the trend of development, the difference being that for
remuneration of $2.15, the value obtained was ‘On track or Maintaining’ and for $3.65
‘Moderately Improving’. These figures allow us to make a comparison and show that in
terms of rating there was a difference of 3 levels, thus obtaining the most positive
evolution possible, and in terms of trending, for the first indicator the evolution
maintained the evolution of 3 levels, while the second indicator had 2 levels. This
evolution allows us to understand that, on average, entrepreneurs receive the amount
indicated by the UN as an indicator for getting out of the poverty line. This evolution
allows us to understand that, on average, entrepreneurs receive the amount indicated
by the UN as an indicator for getting out of the poverty line. This result, when compared
to the population, can lead us to conclude that because they are responsible for their
own income and profits, they are able to earn more than when they are employed and
even more so when they are unemployed. These figures also allow us to reflect that if
there were more incentives for entrepreneurship, more entrepreneurs might emerge,
which could increase the amounts received from the general population. Despite these
positive indicators, the drop in the trending from the first to the second indicator indicates
JANUS.NET, e-journal of International Relations
e-ISSN: 1647-7251
VOL. 16, Nº. 2
November 2025-April 2026, pp. 364-386
The Influence of Local Entrepreneurship on Social Development: A Case Study of São Tomé
and Príncipe in Achieving the SDGS
Pedro Cabrita
380
that there is a drop in the amounts received between wage brackets, revealing that
although it is positive, it does not obtain the amounts necessary to end poverty, and may
indicate that although it is positive, the guarantees of this value being stable are not
secure.
SDG 2 - Zero Hunger
In the second SDG, related to combating hunger, the indicators in the UN report show
values for the indicator related to nutrition associated with the question ‘How many meals
do you eat a day? ‘ with a rating of ‘Significant Challenges’ and a trend of ‘Moderately
Improving’, while for the indicator associated with the efficiency of production and
consumption of products to avoid inefficiency and waste, with the adapted question ‘Do
you know if the products you consume are sustainable?’, it had a rating of ‘Major
Challenges’ and a trend of ‘Decreasing’, proving to be a growing problem in São Tomé
and Príncipe. These figures, when compared with those of the entrepreneurial population,
obtained the same results in the first question, i.e. ‘Significant Challenges’ for the rating
and ‘Moderately Improving’ for the trending, with a neutral evolution, while in the second
indicator of this SDG, the figures were SDG Achieved for the Rating and ‘Moderately
Improving’ for the trending, representing a positive evolution. This evolution, seen in
detail, was neutral for both indicators of the first indicator, but saw an evolution of 3
levels in the rating and 2 levels in the second indicator. This evolution can be interpreted
as the fact that, in terms of food, there is not a great deal of variation between the target
populations, possibly due to the reality of food in STP, which represents a great difficulty
to overcome, but in terms of the quality of the products consumed, we can see that being
an entrepreneur means that there is greater concern and the possibility of buying more
sustainable products.
SDG 3 - Good health and well-being
With regard to SDG 3, the indicators for the general population are data associated with
the rate of motor vehicle accidents with the question ‘Have you ever had a driving
accident?’ and with the question of access to health care with the question ‘Do you have
access to health services?’ The UN report's figures for the driving question were
‘Challenges Remain’ but with a trend of ‘On track or Maintaining’, while for access to
health care they were ‘Major Challenges’ with a trend of ‘Moderately Improving’. As for
the values for entrepreneurs, for the rating of driving accidents they showed ‘Major
Challenges’ and a trend of ‘Moderately Improving’, while for access to healthcare they
showed ‘SDG Achieved’ and ‘Moderately Improving’. These results, when comparing the
values for the general population with the entrepreneurial population, show a negative
evolution of 2 levels for the rating and 1 level for the trending, showing that the
entrepreneurial population not only has more accidents than the general population, but
also a more negative tendency not to contribute to solving this problem. Part of these
figures can be explained by the greater need for transport, especially on an individual
level, to keep businesses running, whether it's dealing with their own supplies and
resources or travelling to sales, and with this need the number of journeys increases and
with it the likelihood of accidents. As for the indicator relating to access to health care,
JANUS.NET, e-journal of International Relations
e-ISSN: 1647-7251
VOL. 16, Nº. 2
November 2025-April 2026, pp. 364-386
The Influence of Local Entrepreneurship on Social Development: A Case Study of São Tomé
and Príncipe in Achieving the SDGS
Pedro Cabrita
381
comparing the ratings of the report with that of the investigation, it improved by 3 levels,
and in the trend it maintained the same level. This positive evolution in the rating and
neutral evolution in the trend can be explained by the entrepreneurial population's
greater access to and ability to use health services, which, linked to the SDG1 indicator
in which it is perceived that they have better financial conditions, may make it easier for
them to use health services.
SDG 4 - Quality education
For SDG 4 - Quality Education, both the indicators marked ‘Do you have carers at any
pre-schools?’ and ‘How literate are you?’ show ‘Major Challenges’ in the 2024 report in
terms of rating and ‘Information Unavaiable’ for the trend. When questioned, the
entrepreneurial population obtained ‘SDG Achieved’ ratings for both indicators and ‘On
track or Maintaining’ ratings for the trend. For the first indicator of this SDG (carers at
any pre-school), they obtained ‘Moderately Improving’ and for ‘How literate are you?’
they obtained ‘On track or Maintaining’. These values, when compared to the target
group, had a positive evolution of 3 levels for both indicators in the rating question and
as the trend did not have determined values, an inconclusive analysis was obtained,
however, given that for both indicators the trend presented represents the path of
progress and/or resolution of the SDG, it can be said that these are satisfactory and
positive values when compared to the other more negative trend options. This evolution
shows greater access to education services by the entrepreneurial population and their
families, sometimes benefiting the communities themselves and wider family circles.
SDG 5 - Gender equality
With initial values for the two SDG Gender Equality indicators of ‘Major Challenges’ in the
case of ‘Have you done any family planning?’ and ‘Significant Challenges’ in the case of
‘Should men and women have the same opportunities in school and labour?’ and a trend
of ‘Stagnating’ for both indicators, this SDG generally presents a delayed and challenging
outlook for resolving the current challenges. With regard to the entrepreneurial
population, the rating and trend values were the same for each indicator, with ‘SDG
Achieved’ and ‘On track or Maintaining’ representing full fulfilment of this goal. These
results allow us to compare the general population with the entrepreneurial population
and show that the entrepreneurial population has a difference of 3 levels on a positive
scale in terms of the rating of the indicator ‘Have you done any family planning?’ and for
the remaining 3 indicators a positive evolution of 2 levels. These results show that the
entrepreneurial population, for reasons possibly linked to their knowledge of the
importance of business planning, also end up planning their family life, resulting in a
more constructive structure and development of their families, rather than simply a lack
of planning, thereby achieving decisive results for all other spheres of personal life. In
terms of women's access to the same educational and work opportunities, entrepreneurs
show an openness and concern for gender equality, seeking a society that is equal despite
gender. Both indicators together are differentiated tools, but with extremely positive
indicators through the lens of the entrepreneurial community.
JANUS.NET, e-journal of International Relations
e-ISSN: 1647-7251
VOL. 16, Nº. 2
November 2025-April 2026, pp. 364-386
The Influence of Local Entrepreneurship on Social Development: A Case Study of São Tomé
and Príncipe in Achieving the SDGS
Pedro Cabrita
382
SDG 10 - Reduced Inequality
Analysing the initial indicators for the general population of São Tomé and Princípe, we
found two indicators, ‘Do you feel there are equal opportunities?’ and ‘Do you feel there
is equal access?’ with equal values both in terms of rating (Major Challenges) and
trending (Information Unavaiable), which does not allow for comparison in this second
parameter. On the entrepreneurs' side, we can see that in the first indicator the result
was “Challenges Remain” with a trending of “Moderately Improving”, representing an
evolution of two positive levels in the rating, while in the second indicator the evolution
was one positive level, moving to “Significant Challenges”. Although this progress is lower
when compared to other SDG indicators, it is still a positive comparison when analysing
the entrepreneurial population, because although their values are still a reality and a
population that has challenges well represented in their day-to-day lives, they end up
being a target group that has more opportunities and seeks to ensure that their workers
also have fair and comparable opportunities and access. This evolution can be related,
as contextualised above, to the level of broad knowledge of the difficulties faced by the
community, customers and suppliers and the search for solutions to their reality based
on other realities.However, the distance between the indicators and the fulfilment of the
objectives also makes it difficult to resolve these challenges, which in many ways go
beyond the physical aspect and also include the political aspect of rights.
Influence of local entrepreneurs in solving global social problems
By cross-referencing the indicators of the six SDGs analyzed in relation to social
development, it becomes possible to comprehensively assess the influence of local
entrepreneurs in addressing local problems with global significance and priority. From
this analysis, it is evident that 10 out of the 12 rating indicators reveal that the
entrepreneurial population performs more positively compared to the general population.
In terms of trends, five of the 12 indicators show positive progress, while four are marked
as "N/A" due to the lack of comparable data from the general population report. When
evaluating the 24 indicators used, 15 exhibit more positive outcomes, three remain
unchanged, four are inconclusive, and only two reflect more negative results. Among the
15 positive indicators, seven demonstrate an improvement of three positive levels, six
show an improvement of two levels, and one reflects an improvement of one level. This
pattern strongly suggests that, on average, the entrepreneurial population enjoys a
higher and continuously improving quality of life compared to the general population,
with the critical differentiating factor being their entrepreneurial engagement and
professional activities.
This analysis highlights that entrepreneurs not only experience a better quality of life in
social terms than the general population but also actively contribute to broader social
development objectives. When juxtaposed with the factors identified in the literature
review, these findings underscore the transformative role of entrepreneurship in
empowering marginalized communities. By creating jobs, increasing income levels (SDG
1), and improving living standards (SDGs 2, 3, and 4), entrepreneurs begin by uplifting
themselves and their immediate circles. Through breaking down systemic barriers to
economic participation, entrepreneurship fosters inclusivity and equity (SDGs 5 and 10),
JANUS.NET, e-journal of International Relations
e-ISSN: 1647-7251
VOL. 16, Nº. 2
November 2025-April 2026, pp. 364-386
The Influence of Local Entrepreneurship on Social Development: A Case Study of São Tomé
and Príncipe in Achieving the SDGS
Pedro Cabrita
383
enabling these individuals to act as local agents of change. They develop and implement
innovative solutions tailored to their communities' unique needs, driving social and
economic progress.
This case study of São Tomé and Príncipe (STP) serves as a compelling example of how
the entrepreneurial population effectively mitigates personal and community challenges.
Their efforts directly reduce broader community and national issues, bringing these
challenges closer to resolution. From a global perspective, this dynamic positions local
entrepreneurs as critical contributors to addressing problems of worldwide concern. Their
capacity to drive localized, scalable solutions highlights the potential for entrepreneurship
to serve as an integral part of the global strategy to resolve pressing social and
developmental issues.
Recommendations and Future Research
This study's findings highlight local entrepreneurship's significant role in addressing social
challenges and advancing Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) in São Tomé and
Príncipe. Based on the results, several recommendations can be made to amplify the
positive impact of entrepreneurship on social development:
− Strengthen Entrepreneurial Ecosystems: Governments and international
organizations could and should create policies and frameworks that facilitate access
to financial resources, training, and technical support for entrepreneurs. Targeted
efforts to develop infrastructure and reduce bureaucratic barriers can further
empower local entrepreneurs.
− Promote Inclusive Entrepreneurship: Initiatives should focus on engaging
marginalized groups such as women, youth, and rural populations. Tailored programs
can provide these groups with the skills and resources needed to start and sustain
businesses, reducing inequalities and fostering social inclusion.
− Enhance Education and Training: Integrating entrepreneurial education into formal
curricula at various educational levels and offering community-based training
programs can build a culture of innovation and problem-solving, directly addressing
SDG 4.
− Encourage Sustainable Practices: Policies and incentives that promote sustainable
entrepreneurship, such as green technologies and eco-friendly practices, should be
prioritized to address pressing environmental and social issues.
− Leverage Digital Transformation: Expanding access to digital tools and technologies
can enable entrepreneurs to scale their businesses, access new markets, and foster
innovation, particularly in underserved areas.
Future research could explore the influence of entrepreneurship on social development
in similar developing island nations, enabling cross-contextual analysis and the
identification of best practices. Additionally, studies focusing on specific sectors, such as
agriculture, tourism, and renewable energy, could provide deeper insights into how these
industries drive sustainable development in local contexts. Longitudinal research tracking
JANUS.NET, e-journal of International Relations
e-ISSN: 1647-7251
VOL. 16, Nº. 2
November 2025-April 2026, pp. 364-386
The Influence of Local Entrepreneurship on Social Development: A Case Study of São Tomé
and Príncipe in Achieving the SDGS
Pedro Cabrita
384
the long-term impact of entrepreneurship on social and economic outcomes would offer
valuable data for shaping policies and interventions. The integration of technologies like
big data, machine learning, and geographic information systems (GIS) could further
enhance the understanding of entrepreneurial impacts at both micro and macro levels.
Moreover, future studies should examine the intersectionality of gender, ethnicity, and
socioeconomic status to develop more nuanced strategies for fostering inclusive
entrepreneurship.
By addressing these recommendations and pursuing the suggested research directions,
stakeholders can better harness the transformative potential of entrepreneurship to
create more equitable and sustainable societies.
Conclusion
This study underscores the pivotal role of local entrepreneurship in advancing social
development, particularly in the context of São Tomé and Príncipe (STP). By analyzing
the interplay between entrepreneurship and six Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)
focused on social progress, the findings demonstrate that entrepreneurial activity can
serve as a catalyst for addressing systemic challenges, empowering marginalized
communities, and fostering inclusive growth.
The comparison between the entrepreneurial and general populations reveals that
entrepreneurs, through their professional engagements, tend to achieve better outcomes
in social indicators related to poverty reduction, health, education, gender equality, and
inequality. Notably, they exhibit higher levels of income, improved access to education
and healthcare, and greater commitment to gender equity and sustainable practices.
These outcomes are indicative of the transformative potential of entrepreneurship in
bridging gaps in socio-economic development and driving progress toward the SDGs.
Beyond the immediate benefits to entrepreneurs themselves, the broader impact of
entrepreneurship extends to community and national levels. Entrepreneurs in STP have
proven to be key agents in addressing local challenges, such as unemployment, limited
access to services, and social inequities. By leveraging their innovative capacities and
local knowledge, they contribute to solving problems of global concern within their
localized contexts.
The findings of this research offer valuable insights for policymakers, practitioners, and
scholars. They reinforce the importance of fostering entrepreneurial ecosystems that
prioritize inclusivity, sustainability, and innovation. Moreover, the case study of STP
serves as a microcosm for understanding the global relevance of local entrepreneurship
in achieving sustainable development.
With this, entrepreneurship emerges not only as a driver of economic growth but also as
a transformative force for social progress. By empowering individuals and communities,
fostering equity, and addressing systemic challenges, local entrepreneurs hold the
potential to create more resilient, inclusive, and sustainable societies. This research
underscores the need for continued investment in entrepreneurship as a means of
advancing the SDGs, providing a roadmap for leveraging local solutions to address global
challenges.
JANUS.NET, e-journal of International Relations
e-ISSN: 1647-7251
VOL. 16, Nº. 2
November 2025-April 2026, pp. 364-386
The Influence of Local Entrepreneurship on Social Development: A Case Study of São Tomé
and Príncipe in Achieving the SDGS
Pedro Cabrita
385
References
African Development Bank. (2024). Country strategy paper: São Tomé and Príncipe
2024–2029. Abidjan: AfDB.
Audretsch, D. B., & Thurik, A. R. (2001). What’s new about the new economy? Sources
of growth in the managed and entrepreneurial economies. Industrial and Corporate
Change, 10(1), 267–315. https://doi.org/10.1093/icc/10.1.267
Baldacchino, G. (2017). Seizing history: Development and non-climate change in Small
Island Developing States. International Journal of Climate Change Strategies and
Management, 9(2), 139–152. https://doi.org/10.1108/IJCCSM-02-2016-0027
Bishop, M., Bouhia, R., Carter, G., Corbett, J., Lindsay, C., Scobie, M., & Wilkinson, E.
(2021). Towards sustained development in Small Island Developing States: Why we need
to reshape global governance. Overseas Development Institute.
https://odi.org/documents/7854/SIDS_sustained_development_WP_jr.pdf
Briguglio, L. (1995). Small Island Developing States and their economic vulnerabilities.
World Development, 23(9), 1615–1632. https://doi.org/10.1016/0305-750X(95)00065-
K
Cohen, B., & Winn, M. I. (2007). Market imperfections, opportunity and sustainable
entrepreneurship. Journal of Business Venturing, 22(1), 29–49.
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jbusvent.2004.12.001
George, G., McGahan, A. M., & Prabhu, J. (2012). Innovation for inclusive growth:
Towards a theoretical framework and a research agenda. Journal of Management Studies,
49(4), 661–683. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-6486.2012.01048.x
Governo da República Democrática de São Tomé e Príncipe. (2017). Estratégia de
Desenvolvimento Nacional 2017–2030. Ministério do Planeamento, Finanças e Economia
Azul.
Instituto Nacional de Estatística (INE). (2018). Recenseamento Geral da População e
Habitação 2017. São Tomé: INE.
Lyon, F., & Sepulveda, L. (2009). Mapping social enterprises: Past approaches,
challenges and future directions. Social Enterprise Journal, 5(1), 83–94.
https://doi.org/10.1108/17508610910956347
Mair, J., & Marti, I. (2006). Social entrepreneurship research: A source of explanation,
prediction, and delight. Journal of World Business, 41(1), 36–44.
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jwb.2005.09.002
Ministério do Planeamento, Finanças e Economia Azul. (2022). Estratégia de Transição
para a Economia Azul. São Tomé: Governo de STP.
Morrison, A., Breen, J., & Ali, S. (2003). Small business growth: Intention, ability, and
opportunity. Journal of Small Business Management, 41(4), 417–425.
https://doi.org/10.1111/1540-627X.00092
JANUS.NET, e-journal of International Relations
e-ISSN: 1647-7251
VOL. 16, Nº. 2
November 2025-April 2026, pp. 364-386
The Influence of Local Entrepreneurship on Social Development: A Case Study of São Tomé
and Príncipe in Achieving the SDGS
Pedro Cabrita
386
Naudé, W. (2010). Entrepreneurship, developing countries, and development economics:
New approaches and insights. Small Business Economics, 34(1), 1–12.
https://doi.org/10.1007/s11187-009-9198-2
Peredo, A. M., & McLean, M. (2006). Social entrepreneurship: A critical review of the
concept. Journal of World Business, 41(1), 56–65.
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jwb.2005.10.007
Ribeiro-Soriano, D. (2017). Small business and entrepreneurship: Their role in economic
and social development. Entrepreneurship & Regional Development, 29(1–2), 1–3.
https://doi.org/10.1080/08985626.2016.1255438
Sarmento, E. M., & Mendes, Z. (2024). An overview of the economic strategy of a small
island developing state (SIDS): The case study of São Tomé and Príncipe. Iris Journal of
Economics & Business Management, 2(3), 1–10.
https://doi.org/10.33552/IJEBM.2024.02.000540
Schumpeter, J. A. (1934). The theory of economic development. Harvard University
Press.
United Nations. (2022). United Nations sustainable development cooperation framework
2023–2027: São Tomé and Príncipe. New York: United Nations.
United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD). (2024, December 13).
São Tomé and Príncipe graduates from least developed country status.
https://unctad.org/news/sao-tome-and-principe-graduates-least-developed-country-
status
United Nations Development Programme (UNDP). (2024). Human development report
2024: Breaking the gridlock. New York: UNDP.
Urbano, D., Aparicio, S., & Audretsch, D. B. (2019). Twenty-five years of research on
institutions, entrepreneurship, and economic growth: What has been learned? Small
Business Economics, 53(1), 21–49. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11187-018-0038-0
Williams, C. C., & Youssef, Y. (2014). Is informal sector entrepreneurship necessity- or
opportunity-driven? Some lessons from urban Brazil. Business and Management
Research, 3(1), 41–53. https://doi.org/10.5430/bmr.v3n1p41
World Bank. (2023). São Tomé and Príncipe economic update: Navigating shocks,
building resilience. Washington, DC: World Bank.
World Bank. (2024). World development indicators 2024. Washington, DC: World Bank.
World Food Programme. (2024). Country strategic plan for São Tomé and Príncipe
(2024–2028). Rome: WFP.
World Tourism Organization (UNWTO). (2024). Tourism in Africa: Regional trends and
outlook. Madrid: UNWTO.
Yunus, M. (2020). A world of three zeros: The new economics of zero poverty, zero
unemployment, and zero carbon emissions. PublicAffairs.
OBSERVARE
Universidade Autónoma de Lisboa
e-ISSN: 1647-7251
VOL. 16, Nº. 2
November 2025-April 2026
387
RELATIONS BETWEEN THE PEOPLE'S REPUBLIC OF CHINA AND GUINEA-
BISSAU BETWEEN DIPLOMACY, ECONOMY AND SECURITY
ORAZIO MARIA GNERRE
oraziognerre@gmail.com
PhD in Political Science ("Legality, Political Cultures and Democracy") from the University of
Perugia (Italia). He graduated in Political Science and International Relations, and in European
and International Policies at the Catholic University of the Sacred Heart in Milan. He is the author
of various scientific essays and books, including "Prima che il mondo fosse. Alle radici del
decisionismo novecentesco" (Mimesis, Milan 2018), also translated into Portuguese as "Antes que
o mundo fosse. As raízes do decisionismo novecentista" (Chiado, Lisboa 2019), and "Nihil
medium. Carl Schmitt tra passato e futuro" (Morlacchi, Perugia 2024).
Abstract
Guinea-Bissau is experiencing a difficult time for growth and development in this period.
Political tensions and the impact of natural disasters make it difficult to build solid international
relations that could allow the country to produce better infrastructures and to enter the scene
in the region as well as in the world. The complex relations of the People's Republic of China
with the country also fit into this framework. This element must be taken into serious
consideration, in light of the important presence of the Asian country on the African continent,
and of the volume of business and the support for infrastructure construction that it
guarantees to many African nations. Diplomatic relations between the African country and its
political parties with China have been fluctuating, and marked by internal issues as well as
international events. To date, the People's Republic of China has outlined a major investment
plan in Guinea-Bissau. The purpose of the article is to trace a brief history of relations between
the African and Asian countries, and to understand the national and regional conditions of the
new cooperation and trade projects, with respect to both the continental dimension and that
of Guinea-Bissau's internal politics.
Keywords
Africa-Asia Relations, Decolinization, South-South Trade, Socialism, Belt and Road Initiative.
Resumo
A Guiné-Bissau está a atravessar um período difícil em termos de crescimento e
desenvolvimento. As tensões políticas e o impacto das catástrofes naturais dificultam a
construção de relações internacionais sólidas que permitam ao país criar melhores
infraestruturas e entrar em cena na região e no mundo. As complexas relações da República
Popular da China com o país também se enquadram neste contexto. Este elemento deve ser
levado em consideração, tendo em vista a importante presença do país asiático no continente
africano e o volume de negócios e o apoio à construção de infraestruturas que garante a
muitas nações africanas. As relações diplomáticas entre o país africano e os seus partidos
políticos com a China têm sido flutuantes e marcadas por questões internas, bem como por
eventos internacionais. Até à data, a República Popular da China delineou um importante
plano de investimento na Guiné-Bissau. O objetivo do artigo é traçar uma breve história das
relações entre os países africanos e asiáticos e compreender as condições nacionais e
JANUS.NET, e-journal of International Relations
e-ISSN: 1647-7251
VOL. 16, Nº. 2
November 2025-April 2026, pp. 387-404
Relations between the People's Republic of China and Guinea-Bissau
between Diplomacy, Economy and Security
Orazio Maria Gnerre
388
regionais dos novos projetos de cooperação e comércio, tanto no que diz respeito à dimensão
continental como à política interna da Guiné-Bissau.
Palavras-chave
Relações África-Ásia, Descolonização, Comércio Sul-Sul, Socialismo, Iniciativa "Belt and
Road".
How to cite this article
Gnerre, Orazio Maria (2025). Relations between the People's Republic of China and Guinea-
Bissau between Diplomacy, Economy and Security. Janus.net, e-journal of international relations.
VOL. 16, Nº. 2, November 2025-April 2026, pp. 387-404. DOI https://doi.org/10.26619/1647-
7251.16.2.21
Article submitted on 8th January 2024 and accepted for publication on 8th July 2025.
JANUS.NET, e-journal of International Relations
e-ISSN: 1647-7251
VOL. 16, Nº. 2
November 2025-April 2026, pp. 387-404
Relations between the People's Republic of China and Guinea-Bissau
between Diplomacy, Economy and Security
Orazio Maria Gnerre
389
RELATIONS BETWEEN THE PEOPLE'S REPUBLIC OF CHINA AND
GUINEA-BISSAU BETWEEN DIPLOMACY, ECONOMY AND
SECURITY
ORAZIO MARIA GNERRE
Introduction
The historical-political phase we are experiencing is characterized by the explosion of
some territorialized criticalities which, however, pose imbalances that are difficult to heal
within the world-system. On the one hand, the planet is experiencing an increasingly
widespread phase of development, on the other, local crises and instabilities threaten to
undermine this delicate order.
This is not entirely accidental, but it is part of an internal logic of the world economic
system
1
which international political institutions try to put a stop to. At this stage it is
possible to argue that Africa is growing, economically and infrastructurally. This is the
framework in which the recent history of Guinea-Bissau fits. A country that has gone
through a harsh phase of decolonization, it seeks to grow and stabilize in the globalized
and interconnected world in which we live. After the separation from the Portuguese
colonial regime, Guinea-Bissau was first led by the authority of the national liberation
movement, and then entered a phase of serious political clashes and relative instability.
Despite this, the country has many resources and great growth potential that must only
be used to the best. In this sense, it is trying to grow in the infrastructural field and to
build its own economic-political autonomy starting from the sectors in which it finds the
greatest advantages. It is in this context that we can insert and read the relations
between the Sub-Saharan country and the People's Republic of China. These countries
1
“According to [David] Harvey's theory, the constitutive element of capitalist development is represented by
the continuous production and reproduction of space to ensure favorable conditions for the accumulation of
capital. In doing this, however, capitalism suffers from a space-time contradiction that derives from its double
need to continually speed up the circulation of goods and capital and to create, at the same time, material
structures and infrastructures anchored to the territory. The construction of spatial fixes, functional to absorb
the accumulated capital, in fact requires long-term investment projects that slow down and limit the
regeneration and replacement of capital. […] The expansion of capitalism therefore determines a growth of
antagonism between different actors who seek to acquire or destroy the assets of rivals through commercial
and financial competition, or geopolitical maneuvers. The creation of new spaces for “endless accumulation”
therefore also implies the devaluation and / or destruction of some pre-existing assets […]. During a crisis of
over-accumulation, certain economic assets abroad are in fact devalued by means of financial and / or military
operations (US model), in conditions, for example, of low competition and political corruption, thus opening up
to fierce competition for their hoarding at very low prices, where the strongest wins. The consequence of such
crisis situations is therefore also manifested in the increase of geopolitical rivalry, in the context of which it is
decided which territories will have to endure the attack of devaluation. The accumulation of capital can in fact
be maximized only in conditions of limited competition and geographical concentration of wealth / power,
otherwise distribution and fair exchange would prevail over accumulation and unequal exchange”. Fabio
Massimo Parenti, Mutamento del sistema-mondo. Per una geografia dell'ascesa cinese, Aracne, Rome 2009,
pp. 31-34 [translated from Italian].
JANUS.NET, e-journal of International Relations
e-ISSN: 1647-7251
VOL. 16, Nº. 2
November 2025-April 2026, pp. 387-404
Relations between the People's Republic of China and Guinea-Bissau
between Diplomacy, Economy and Security
Orazio Maria Gnerre
390
have actually experienced a very similar recent history, having both freed themselves
from the colonial yoke, albeit in different ways and contexts. Not only this, but Guinea-
Bissau has also received help from the Asian country in this delicate process, which has
favored alternating diplomatic relations between these two political entities. The
theoretical profile of Chinese politics has always been addressed both to the sector of
countries emerging from colonization, and to the idea of development cooperation
between decolonized countries. This is why the relations between Guinea-Bissau and
China are so important and so strongly characterized in a political sense, although this
profile may escape the less attentive analyst.
In this historical moment we see two trends that go to marry almost spontaneously: on
the one hand, China seeks partnerships with African countries, both to follow the
premises of its international economic policy, formulated since the early days of the
revolutionary communist government, which to acquire through trade and cooperation
of raw materials of great importance for the country's industry; on the other hand, there
is the attempt of many African countries to grow and to guarantee ever greater stability
and security, but in addition to that try to internationalize, accessing international
markets and selling their raw materials becomes a necessity for these countries.
Internationalization, in the first form of export, is therefore of vital importance, as is the
attraction of foreign investment.
These are significant historical trends, and despite all the elements of instability and
volatility they cannot change overnight: they represent in many ways the structural
nature of today's world economy. World economy marked by a restructuring of the
specific weight of countries and continents, thanks to a greater diffusion (albeit slow) of
economic development.
With this article we intend to demonstrate how the political history of Guinea-Bissau has
determined all those political and economic trends that, to date, are relevant within a
complex analysis of the actual condition of the country as well as its specific relations. In
this case, the actual weight that the phenomenon of decolonization has had has
conditioned in all respects the form that the country, its trade and its diplomatic measure
have assumed. It is precisely this dimension that, as we will see, has put it in comparison
with contemporary China, also born from a phenomenon of decolonization. This has
structured, over time, a certain type of economic-political relationship between the two
countries that intervenes in a context that is undoubtedly not easy (both at a regional
and global level), but that moves at rapid speed in a world situation in complete
restructuring.
Guinea-Bissau between risks and regional context
One of the examples that are often cited is that of the Congolese economic miracle, where
the African country has experienced significant growth rates. This African country, now
a symbol of renewed hopes for economic growth, has gone from a domestic product
JANUS.NET, e-journal of International Relations
e-ISSN: 1647-7251
VOL. 16, Nº. 2
November 2025-April 2026, pp. 387-404
Relations between the People's Republic of China and Guinea-Bissau
between Diplomacy, Economy and Security
Orazio Maria Gnerre
391
growth rate of 5.8% in 2018
2
to an expected growth of 6.4% in 2022
3
, and this despite
the uncertainties and difficulties caused by the impact of the pandemic
4
.
All this is part of a generally positive trend of the entire sub-Saharan region. The region's
economy is expected to expand to 3.6% according to data from the World Bank
5
.
Even extending the analysis to the whole region, we see how the recovery from the
difficult pandemic phase of Covid-19 has led to good economic outlets, again according
to informations released by the World Bank:
“Prospects for the East and Southern African subregion show a sustained recovery (4.1
percent) from the recession, down to 3.1 percent in 2022, and then settling around 3.8
percent in 2024. The Western and Central Africa subregion is projected to grow 4.2
percent in 2022 and 4.6 percent in 2023. The 2022 forecast is revised up by 0.6
percentage point compared to the October 2021 forecast, largely reflecting upgrades in
Nigeria.
Economic activity in Sub-Saharan Africa is projected to grow at 3.9 percent and 4.2
percent in 2023 and 2024, respectively. A recovery in global demand is expected in 2023
as most of the shocks dragging down the global economy are expected to dissipate.”
5
Guinea-Bissau fits into this context, experiencing alternating phases in its successes in
terms of economic growth. According to the African Development Bank Group, despite
the negative score of 1.4% in growth (due to the aforementioned difficulties of the
specific period
6
), this country should have achieved growth of 3.8% in 2021
7
.
Furthermore “GDP growth in 2022 and 2023 is projected at 3.7% and 4.5%, driven by
recovery in trade
9
”. Unfortunately, this is part of a context of serious volatility, due to
events of a political or environmental nature. Starting with the former, we must
remember that Guinea-Bissau is frequently harassed by climate shocks. In 2003, 2004
and 2005 the African country underwent severe flooding which damaged its
infrastructure, villages and the agricultural sector, leaving a serious impact on the
economy and society
8
.
“Floods are a recurring natural hazard in Guinea-Bissau, especially along its coast.
Drought is a recurring natural disaster in Guinea-Bissau and has experienced some
2
Africa News staff, DRC faces economic challenges, on Africa News:
https://www.africanews.com/2019/06/20/drcfaces-economic-challenges/
3
Reuters staff, Congo an economic 'bright spot' in Africa, says IMF chief, on Reuters:
https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/congo-an-economic-bright-spot-africa-says-imf-chief-2021-
12-08/
4
“Georgieva said the world economy is recovering from the worst impacts of the coronavirus pandemic, but
has lost a bit of momentum with the United States and China slowing down.”
Reuters staff, Congo an economic 'bright spot' in Africa, says IMF chief, on Reuters:
https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/congo-an-economic-bright-spot-africa-says-imf-chief-2021-
12-08/
5
The World Bank, The World Bank in Africa, on The World Bank website:
https://www.worldbank.org/en/region/afr/overview
5
Ibidem.
6
“The agriculture-based economy suffered from lockdowns and closure of borders in 2020, recovering in 2021.”
African Development Bank Group, Guinea-Bissau Economic Outlook, on African Development Bank Group
website: https://www.afdb.org/en/countries/west-africa/guinea-bissau/guinea-bissau-economic-outlook
7
African Development Bank Group, Guinea-Bissau Economic Outlook, on African Development Bank Group
website: https://www.afdb.org/en/countries/west-africa/guinea-bissau/guinea-bissau-economic-outlook
Ibidem.
8
Climate Change Knowledge Portal, Guinea-Bissau, on Climate Change Knowledge Portal – The World Bank
website: https://climateknowledgeportal.worldbank.org/country/guinea-bissau/vulnerability. Ibidem.
JANUS.NET, e-journal of International Relations
e-ISSN: 1647-7251
VOL. 16, Nº. 2
November 2025-April 2026, pp. 387-404
Relations between the People's Republic of China and Guinea-Bissau
between Diplomacy, Economy and Security
Orazio Maria Gnerre
392
devastating droughts in the recent past. Heavier rainfall events in the future along with
higher tides from rising sea level will continue to impact the coast. Sea level rise
continues to affect Guinea-Bissau’s coastal region and is a serious threat to 70% of the
population who reside along the coast. […] Water resources in Guinea-Bissau are
diminishing due to the observed decrease in rainfall since 1961 causing: a slower
recharge of aquifers and increasing the depth at which water can be accessed, a reduction
in the volume of water in rivers, and an increase in saltwater intrusion on coastal
aquifers.”
11
Added to this are the high epidemic risks for the population, including that of meningitis
9
.
According to the United Nations, Guinea-Bissau's environmental disasters could increase
in the next period, especially in the areas already affected
10
. This for obvious reasons has
very strong repercussions on the economy
11
. Also according to the African Development
Bank Group:
“Guinea-Bissau is 130 on the 2021 GCRI—ranked first as more exposed to extreme
events—but data issues may muddy the picture. The climate change impact is
widespread, and resources are being fast depleted, with fires destroying more than 120
ha of forest every year. Despite an overall decrease in rainfall, rain events are growing
increasingly intense, often paired with strong winds, causing huge agricultural losses. In
2020, severe floods hit the rice-producing region in the south.”
12
Beyond that, the political factor must also be considered. Guinea-Bissau, which for a long
time was governed by the movement that led it to anti-colonial national liberation, the
African Party for the Independence of Guinea and Cape Verde, is experiencing a phase
of political alternation which is expressed with very bitter clashes. Unfortunately, this
type of political disruption and enmity took place immediately before decolonization took
place.
“The national political arena has been marked since the assassination of Cabral in January
1973 by profound struggles for power among competing institutions, leaders, and ethnic
groups that have been significantly affected by the rice-producing peasantry. Rather than
ideological unity and cultural integration, the leadership has been weakened by personal
antagonisms and serious ethnic divisions.”
13
Political tensions in the country must be kept in mind in a three hundred and sixty degree
consideration of the country's future, because an unstable country attracts far fewer
foreign investments, and does not allow governments to operate in a linear manner with
9
Ibidem.
10
AA.VV., Guinea-Bissau Disaster Risk Profile – Floods & Droughts (2019), UN Office for Disaster Risk Reduction,
2019, p. 15: http://riskprofilesundrr.org/documents/1521
11
“The amount of lost working days amounts to 44.000 under present climate conditions, and increase to
57.000 in the future. Under present climate conditions, 0.22% of the average number of working days in crop
cultivation are lost and this is predicted to increase to 0.28% in the future. However, the number of working
days lost, expressed as a percentage of the average amount of days required for harvesting, is approximately
7 times higher.”
AA.VV., Guinea-Bissau Disaster Risk Profile – Floods & Droughts (2019), UN Office for Disaster Risk Reduction,
2019, p. 16: http://riskprofilesundrr.org/documents/1521
12
African Development Bank Group, Guinea-Bissau Economic Outlook, on African Development Bank Group
website: https://www.afdb.org/en/countries/west-africa/guinea-bissau/guinea-bissau-economic-outlook
13
Joshua B. Forrest, Guinea-Bissau Since Independence: A Decade of Domestic Power Struggles, in Modern
African Studies, vol. 25 no.1 y. 2008, p. 96.
JANUS.NET, e-journal of International Relations
e-ISSN: 1647-7251
VOL. 16, Nº. 2
November 2025-April 2026, pp. 387-404
Relations between the People's Republic of China and Guinea-Bissau
between Diplomacy, Economy and Security
Orazio Maria Gnerre
393
respect to the modernization measures necessary for the proper functioning of an
economy within the international scenario. Also the political element, in this sense, is to
be understood in its weight on the relations that Guinea-Bissau is developing with the
People's Republic of China, given that the latter are aimed, among other things, at a
lasting economic partnership, which it leads to the interrelation of the two countries in
large commercial projects and, with the Belt and Road Initiative, infrastructural projects.
In this context, it becomes very important to take into account, as already mentioned,
the regional instability, which extends to the whole of West Africa
14
and which obviously
can also have serious repercussions on Guinea-Bissau. Guinea-Bissau itself is
experiencing political turmoil that will continue through 2024
15
and 2025
16
. It is therefore
essential to take into account these possible instabilities in order to understand the role
of the country's political actors and its tendency towards growth.
China and Guinea-Bissau: a history of decolonization
When we talk about the relations that have developed diachronically between China and
GuineaBissau we must bear in mind the most important element that has structured their
existence and development, namely decolonization. Guinea-Bissau became autonomous
in recent times after the national liberation struggle against Portugal. This was part of a
continental movement which was that of rejection of the colonization that Western
countries still exercised against African ones. This was a period of bitter clashes and
transformations within not only the entire African continent or all the countries that
belonged to what Mao called the “Third World”
20
, but for the entire world power structure.
As has rightly been pointed out by various authors and thinkers of international politics,
this period concided with that of the re-dimensioning of the political-strategic influence
of Europe, the socalled Old World, on the fate of the planet. Europe, in that specific
historical phase, withdrew from its world influence to the advantage of other forms of
political influence that projected themselves from other centers of radiation
17
. The two
main ones, famously, were the United States of America and the Soviet Union, but over
time the People's Republic of China was added. The latter was another country that, after
an arduous war during the Second World Conflict, arose from a period of political
prostration and lack of autonomy. Specifically, China, which boasted centuries and
centuries of sovereign civilization, in modernity had found itself in conditions of
14
Héni Nsaibia, Conflict intensifies and instability spreads beyond Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger, on ACLED
website: https://acleddata.com/conflict-watchlist-2025/sahel-and-coastal-west-africa/
15
Dominic Wabwireh, Tensions rise in Guinea-Bissau over president's mandate expiration date, on Africa News:
https://www.africanews.com/2025/02/26/tensions-rise-in-guinea-bissau-over-presidents-mandate-
expiration-date/
16
Hany Wahila, Guinea-Bissau: Continued Turbulence in Struggle to Restrain Executive Power, on Africa Center
for Strategic Studies website: https://africacenter.org/spotlight/2025-elections/guineabissau/
20
Mao Zedong,
On Diplomacy, Foreign Languages Press, Beijing 1998.
Editorial Department of Renmin Ribao, Chairman Mao's Theory of the Differentiation of the Three Worlds is a
Major Contribution to Marxism-Leninism, Renmin Ribao, Beijing 1977.
Jiang An, Mao Zedong's “Three Worlds” theory: Political considerations and value for the times, in Social
Sciences in China, vol. 34 no. 1 y. 2013, pp. 35-57.
17
“International relations were losing their Eurocentric character as a result of the rise of Russia and the U.S.
as superpowers and the internationalization of the economy.”
Paul Piccone and G. L. Ulmen, Schmitt's Testament and the Future of Europe, in Telos, n. 83 y. 1990, p. 4.
JANUS.NET, e-journal of International Relations
e-ISSN: 1647-7251
VOL. 16, Nº. 2
November 2025-April 2026, pp. 387-404
Relations between the People's Republic of China and Guinea-Bissau
between Diplomacy, Economy and Security
Orazio Maria Gnerre
394
subordination with respect to Europe and the United States, and to Japan which was
building the so-called “Coprosperity Sphere”
18
.
The Chinese Communist Party, led by Mao, had to free itself first of Japanese influence
on the country, together with the Nationalist Party (in Chinese “Kuomintang”) led by
Chiang Kai-shek. After that it had to fight against his own previous Kuomintang allies,
supported by various foreign powers. This type of victory proved to be the decisive
moment for national and international politics, as well as for the economy of this country,
which after some difficult periods took off and was able to maintain its autonomy from
the centrifugal forces of the changing global scenario. Not only has China established its
own perimeter of autonomy with respect to the West (European or American) and the
Japanese Empire, but also towards the Soviet Union: as the French historian Maurice
Meisner, biographer of Mao recalls, China entered into bitter conflict with the Stalinist
leadership to guarantee the foundation of an autonomous communist state despite the
contrary opinions of Moscow, which preferred collaboration between the Chinese
Communist Party and the Kuomintang
19
. These disagreements escalated over time, until
there was almost a complete break between the USSR and socialist China, where the
latter accused the Soviet country of being a "social-imperialist" entity
20
. It is very
interesting for us to note how the rift between China and the Soviet Union led to an
intensification of the leading role of the East Asian country towards the decolonized world,
and in particular Africa, especially starting from 1962
21
. It could be said in fact that since
that serious division in the socialist bloc, China has represented a much more important
agglomeration point for Africa than the Soviet Union
22
.
This type of fracture did not damage, in the global political perspective and in world public
opinion, the idea of bipolarity, the division of the world between communist countries
and the capitalist world. The non-aligned countries became part of this political-
internationalistic evaluation mode as elements of confirmation.
It is within this scenario that Guinea-Bissau gained its independence, through the political
struggle of the African Party for the Independence of Guinea and Cape Verde. The Party
obtained the independence of the African country in 1973. Being the party of clear
18
Jeremy A. Yellen, The Greater East Asia Co-Prosperity Sphere: When Total Empire Met Total War, Cornell
University Press, Ithaca 2019.
19
Cf. Maurice Meisner, Mao Zedong: A Political and Intellectual Porttrait, Polity, Cambridge 2006.
20
“'Social imperialism' […] It was used to describe those Marxists of the Second International who acquiesced
in the violent escalation of national rivalries in 1914: who made their peace, in other words, with the imperialist
character of their respective nation-states. This was also an option for reform instead of revolution, an explicit
legitimation of the gradualist practice into which most of the socialist parties had comfortably settled” [Geoff
Heley, Defining Social Imperialism: Use and Abuse of an Idea, in Social History, vol.1 no.3 y. 1976, p. 266].
Later this term was used no longer against the European social democratic reformists but against the Soviet
Union: cf. Mao Tse-Tung, On Khrushchov’s Phoney Communism and Its Historical Lessons for the World:
Comment on the Open Letter of the Central Committee of the CPSU (IX), Foreign Languages Press, Beijing
1964.
21
Lorenz M. Lüthi, The Sino-Soviet split and its consequences, in Artemy M. Kalinovsky and Craig Daigle [edited
by], The Routledge Handbook of the Cold War, Routledge, London / New York 2014, pp. 81-82.
“On 5 October, in a conversation with North Korean Vice Premier Yi Chu-yŏn, Zhou Enlai said that Albania,
Cuba, Guinea, and Algeria had all requested aid from China in 1960” [Danhui Li and Yafeng Xia, Mao and the
Sino-Soviet Split, 1959-1973: A New History, Lexington Books, Lanham 2018, p. 146].
22
Robert A. Scalapino, Sino-Soviet competition in Africa, in Foreign Affairs, vol. 4 no. 4 y. 1964, p. 640. These
were already the accusations that the Soviet leadership made against Mao in 1956: Mingjiang Li, Mao's China
and the Sino-Soviet Split: Ideological Dilemma, Routledge, London / New York 2012, p. 32.
JANUS.NET, e-journal of International Relations
e-ISSN: 1647-7251
VOL. 16, Nº. 2
November 2025-April 2026, pp. 387-404
Relations between the People's Republic of China and Guinea-Bissau
between Diplomacy, Economy and Security
Orazio Maria Gnerre
395
socialist inspiration, like most of the anticolonial political movements and groups of the
time, the country quickly approached the communist camp:
“Ideology facilitated the interaction between the PAIGC and the communist states. The
politics of Cold War brought the communist states to the same side of the national
liberation movements; both claimed to fight Western imperialism. It is important to note
that neither Cabral nor the PAIGC could be classified as Marxists; yet, in many ways,
Marxism informed the organization’s political work. Cabral’s political analyses relied on
the Marxist class-based approach and his political language included Marxist vocabulary.
Additionally, there was a confluence of ideological precepts that linked the PAIGC to the
communist states: anti-imperialism, anti-colonialism, the legitimacy of national liberation
struggle, and internationalism were at the heart of their political discourse.”
23
This did not prevent Cabral, however, from maintaining excellent diplomatic relations
with various religious denominations and many Western countries
24
.
The first country to recognize its independence was socialist Romania
25
(whose influence
fell under the USSR), but diplomatic relations with the People's Republic of China were
inaugurated shortly after. It should be remembered, however, that before this, the
President of the country, Ahmed Sékou Touré, was considered as early as 1958 as a real
“communist” by American officials, having also renounced maintaining close relations
with the former French colonialists, and having also requested assistance from the Soviet
Union for his country
26
.
First of all, it must be remembered that the party in question was supported in the
liberation struggle from China, in line with the internationalist plans of the communist
political theory. Notoriously, however, there were some theorical differences between
China and the Soviet Union (as we have already mentioned) and one of these was that
Maoist China followed a line that could be defined as national-communist, according to
which national revolutions did not have to conform ideologically and politically to a central
model, or to refer politically to a specific international institution
27
. This could also be one
of the reasons for the very specific evolution of the conduct and ideological line of the
African Party for the Independence of Guinea and Cape Verde.
The relations between the two countries were situated within an issue, identified by the
Chinese President Mao, namely that of the “Third World”
28
. This theory postulated the
23
Abel Djassi Amado, The PAIGC ‘Congratulatory’ Diplomacy towards Communist States, 1960-1964, in
Lusotopie, vol. 19 no. 1 y. 2020, p. 5: https://journals.openedition.org/lusotopie/4640
24
António Tomás in Review of African Political Economy staff, Amílcar Cabral’s life, legacy and reluctant
nationalism – an interview with António Tomás, in Review of African Political Economy:
https://roape.net/2023/05/03/amilcar-cabrals-life-legacy-and-reluctant-nationalism-an-interview-with-
antonio-tomas/
25
“Romania had a multidisciplinary and multifaceted economic and political approach in Africa, for example,
Romanian media. It propagates the involvement in supporting liberation movements (the fact that Romania
was the first state that recognized Guinea-Bissau’s independence).”
Cristian-Constantin Şipeţean, Economic and political relations between Romania and African countries during
the totalitarian regime (1965-1980), in Anuarul Institutului de Istorie “George Bariţiu” - Series Historica, no.
51 y. 2012, p. 235.
26
Jeffrey James Byrne, The Cold War in Africa, in Artemy M. Kalinovsky and Craig Daigle [edited by], The
Routledge Handbook of the Cold War, Routledge, London / New York 2014, p. 152.
27
Orazio Maria Gnerre, In the Flow of History and International Relations: A Theorical Prophile of Contemporary
China, in Bulletin of the Institute of Oriental Studies, vol. 2 no. 1 y. 2022, p. 109.
28
“On 10 April 1974, Chinese vice premier Deng Xiaoping brought Mao’s three-worlds thesis to the General
Assembly of the UN. Deng labeled the Soviet Union and the US, the two superpowers that formed the First
JANUS.NET, e-journal of International Relations
e-ISSN: 1647-7251
VOL. 16, Nº. 2
November 2025-April 2026, pp. 387-404
Relations between the People's Republic of China and Guinea-Bissau
between Diplomacy, Economy and Security
Orazio Maria Gnerre
396
principle that countries not aligned with US or Soviet global power should join in a
struggle for independence and the acquisition of development capabilities. In this sense,
Africa was a geopolitical hub of great importance, together with the colonized countries
of Asia and Latin America. The attention of the People's Republic of China towards Africa
has therefore always been of great importance. Suffice it to say that the theory on the
Three Worlds was enunciated by Mao for the first time in the presence of the Algerian
president Houari Boumediene
29
.
China, during the decolonization, entered the political game of the Lusophone nations
and subjected to Portuguese rule, including Guinea-Bissau
30
. China has also developed
the idea of South-South trade, a principle still considered valid by the Asian country and
promoted by international institutions such as the United Nations
31
. This principle was
launched during the Bandung conference of 1955. The official theme of the conference
was, not surprisingly, that of dialogue and cooperation between Asia and Africa. China,
as mentioned, was among the main promoters of the Conference, showing great interest
in the project and favoring a theorical line on how this type of cooperation relationship
should work. This event is also so important for contemporary China, which laid the
foundations for the development of the concept of South-South cooperation in
contemporary history, that on the 60
th
anniversary of this conference, in 2015, a third
session was held in Bandung and Jakarta, in which President Xi Jinping took part
32
.
At the first Bandung conference took part these African nations: Egypt, Libya, Ethiopia,
Liberia and Sudan. But during the second, in 2005, so well after the period of
decolonization, the African nations participating were 52. The cementing of Afro-Asian
relations meaned at the time and still means that of Sino-African relations.
As we were saying, the African Party for the Independence of Guinea and Cape Verde
almost immediately established diplomatic relations with China once colonial power was
overthrown. Diplomatic relations with the Asian country were already underway in 1974,
in line with political cooperation prior to the moment of decolonization. This cooperation
World, as “the two largest international oppressors and exploitators” and the “main war originators in the
contemporary era.” The Second World, composed of other capitalist/developed countries, while facing the
attempts by the two superpowers to control them, demonstrated in their policies the legacies of their own past
as colonial powers. The Third World, formed by the vast majority of developing countries in Asia, Africa and
Latin America, favored the “tendency of revolution” and opposed “the tendency of war,” and they thus
represented the “force playing a major role in promoting progress in the world.””
Chen Jian, China’s changing policies toward the Third World and the end of the global Cold War, in Artemy M.
Kalinovsky and Sergey Radchenko [edited by], The End of the Cold War and the Third World: New Perspectives
on Regional Conflict, Routledge, London / New York 2011, p. 106.
29
“Mao […] said to Algerian leader Houari Boumediene that “China belongs to the Third World, as politically
and economically China is not in the same group of the rich and powerful, and thus can only be with those
countries that are relatively poor.” Mao’s new expressions immediately became the basic guideline of the PRC’s
international policies.”
Chen Jian, China’s changing policies toward the Third World and the end of the global Cold War, in Artemy M.
Kalinovsky and Sergey Radchenko [edited by], The End of the Cold War and the Third World: New Perspectives
on Regional Conflict, Routledge, London / New York 2011, pp. 106-107.
30
Steven F. Jackson, China's Third World Foreign Policy: The Case of Angola and Mozambique, 1961-93, in The
China Quarterly, no. 142 y. 1995, pp. 388-422.
31
United Nations Office for South-South Cooperation, About UNOSSC, on United Nations Office for South-South
Cooperation website: https://unsouthsouth.org/about/about-unossc/
32
Ministry of the Foreign Affairs of the People's Republic of China, Xi Jinping Attends Activities Commemorating
the 60th Anniversary of the Bandung Conference, on Ministry of the Foreign Affairs of the People's Republic of
China website:
https://www.fmprc.gov.cn/mfa_eng/topics_665678/2015zt/xjpdbjstjxgsfwbfydnxycxyfldrhyhwlhy60znjnhd/20
1505/ t20150505_704906.html
JANUS.NET, e-journal of International Relations
e-ISSN: 1647-7251
VOL. 16, Nº. 2
November 2025-April 2026, pp. 387-404
Relations between the People's Republic of China and Guinea-Bissau
between Diplomacy, Economy and Security
Orazio Maria Gnerre
397
was interrupted at a certain moment due to political-ideological disagreements between
the nationalist and pan-African movement for the liberation of Guinea and Communist
China. Between the 1960s and 1970s the movement oscillated between alliances with
the Soviet Union and China, reconsolidating the latter towards the end of this period
33
.
In any case, after decolonization, after a few months, relations between China and
Guinea-Bissau were re-established. This happened in the period immediately following
decolonization, only to be interrupted, again in 1990, with the African Party for the
Independence of Guinea and Cape Verde still in power. Until that date there had been
economic exchanges between the two countries and China had provided for the
construction of a stadium, a hospital and other facilities in the African country
34
.
Relations broke off as Guinea Bissau began diplomatic relations with Taiwan
39
. The
relationship was then “mended” in 1998. This was done with a joint statement that
between them said:
“The government of the People's Republic of China supports the efforts made by the
Republic of Guinea-Bissau for maintaining the national sovereignty and development of
economy. The government of the Republic of Guinea-Bissau recognizes that the
government of the People's Republic of China is the sole legal government representing
the whole China and that Taiwan is a part of the inseparable territory of China. The
People's Republic of China expressed its appreciation for the stand adopted by the
government of the Republic of Guinea-Bissau.”
35
Despite the ups and downs of the political events in Guinea-Bissau, China has shown a
continuing interest in the African country. Over time, the history of diplomatic breakups
and estrangements has also given rise to as many rapprochements.
Today's relations between China and Guinea-Bissau
As we have said, Chinese policy in Africa continues to follow the principles emanating
from the first Bandung conference in 1955, albeit renewed for the present time. One of
the fundamental elements remains that of the political and economic relationship
between Asia and Africa, as geopolitical entities close in interest and in recent history.
In fact, among the points proposed by Xi Jinping during the re-edition of the Conference
in 2015, there was the expansion of south-south cooperation, and therefore the
expansion of the number of countries that exchange and cooperate with each other, and
also the increase in cooperation between Asia and Africa. In this sense, Xi Jinping said,
relations between Asia and Africa are to be considered winning, given the
complementarity of the growth projects of these two areas
36
. We must also remember,
to reiterate the centrality of the relationship between China and Africa in contemporary
international politics, a relationship that therefore assumes importance also for Guinea-
33
Julião Soares Sousa, Amílcar Cabral, the PAIGC and the Relations with China at the Time of the Sino-Soviet
Split and of Anti-Colonialism. Discourses and Praxis, in The International History Review, vol. 42 no. 6 y. 2020.
34
Ministry of the Foreign Affairs of the People's Republic of China, Guinea-Bissau, on China.org.cn:
http://www.china.org.cn/english/features/focac/183519.htm
39
Ibidem.
35
Ibidem.
36
Xinhua staff, Xi raises three-point proposal on carrying forward Bandung Spirit, on China Daily:
https://www.chinadaily.com.cn/world/2015xivisitpse/2015-04/22/content_20511293.htm
JANUS.NET, e-journal of International Relations
e-ISSN: 1647-7251
VOL. 16, Nº. 2
November 2025-April 2026, pp. 387-404
Relations between the People's Republic of China and Guinea-Bissau
between Diplomacy, Economy and Security
Orazio Maria Gnerre
398
Bissau, that Asia and Africa are areas of relative growth, in which some actors are
performing very positively compared to their recent history. It is no coincidence that Asia
and Africa have two of the BRICS countries (respectively China and South Africa), an
economic and political alliance between growing countries. Africa, as we have already
seen, is also experiencing growth processes in some specific territories which introduces
it to a substantially positive trend.
The economic relationship between BRICS and Africa is in fact today becoming a topic of
interest for world politics:
“The size of the BRICS economies, their economic potential and their increasing
international demand for goods make them particularly relevant to Africa’s development.
The greatest impact of the BRICS on Africa will be achieved through three key channels:
trade, investment and development assistance. Regarding Trade between the BRICS and
Africa, it can be summarized under two key features: Africa’s exports to the BRICS are
dominated by fuels and primary commodities (mainly to China and India) and the BRICS’
exports to African countries are dominated by manufactured goods. For resource-rich
African countries, gains from the primary commodity boom should be invested to fund
higher-value production (primarily in manufacturing). They also need to invest in physical
infrastructure to address steep transport costs. Further, Africa’s producers have to be
more closely linked to global value chains, coordinating with them (to ensure that
production and information are linked in a timely manner) and meeting global standards.
[…] The size of the BRICS economies, their economic potential and their increasing
international demand for goods make them particularly relevant to Africa’s
development.”
37
Despite the political instability of the African country, China has started trading with the
African country again. According to Chinese data, the volume of trade between the two
countries in 2002 was $ 4.504 million
38
. To date, China continues to invest in the African
country (including in a $ 48 million project for the modernization of the country's
telecommunications network
39
), as in many other sub-Saharan countries. It was also
noted that “China [is] a major bilateral donor in Africa and means they will overtake the
US as the biggest aid donor to Africa
40
”.
Guinea-Bissau also signed a memorandum with China in November 2021 regarding its
adhesion to the Chinese project of the so-called “Belt and Road Initiative”
41
. The Belt and
Road, or BRI, is a vast infrastructure construction project as well as an extension of
commercial lines that will connect a whole series of countries and outlets to China and to
each other, innervating from Eurasia to Africa. The extension of the Belt and Road to
37
AA.VV., BRICS in Africa: Economic Ties and Impact. BCP Papers – v. 7 n. 1, on BRICS Policy Center website:
https://bricspolicycenter.org/en/publications/brics-in-africa-economic-ties-and-impacts/
38
Ministry of the Foreign Affairs of the People's Republic of China, Guinea-Bissau, on China.org.cn:
http://www.china.org.cn/english/features/focac/183519.htm
39
Chris Devonshire-Ellis, Guinea-Bissau Joins The Belt And Road Initiative, on Silk Road Briefing:
https://www.silkroadbriefing.com/news/2021/11/28/guinea-bissau-joins-the-belt-and-road-initiative/
40
Elling Tjønneland, The Changing Role of Chinese Development Aid, CMI Insight number 2 March 2020, p. 4:
https://www.cmi.no/publications/file/7173-the-changing-role-of-chinese-development-aid.pdf
41
National Development and Reform Commission of the People's Republic of China, Guinea-Bissau Joins Belt
and Road Initiative, on National Development and Reform Commission of the People's Republic of China
website: https://en.ndrc.gov.cn/news/mediarusources/202112/t20211210_1307485.html
JANUS.NET, e-journal of International Relations
e-ISSN: 1647-7251
VOL. 16, Nº. 2
November 2025-April 2026, pp. 387-404
Relations between the People's Republic of China and Guinea-Bissau
between Diplomacy, Economy and Security
Orazio Maria Gnerre
399
Africa seems very powerful, and many African states have already joined the project,
including South Africa.
This type of project could certainly guarantee Guinea Bissau some types of advantages,
if exploited to the fullest in relation to increasing investments for development.
Furthermore, the guarantee of the construction of infrastructure projects such as ports,
highways and railways is of great importance for the Sub-Saharan countries.
Obviously, many variables remain in diplomatic relations between two countries, but
Chinese investments tie the Asian country to the African one. These political-economic
phenomena should be analyzed not only with a national focus but also with a regional
one, to establish the development potential and external influences coming from the
geographical sector in which a political unit (in this case Guinea-Bissau) exercises its
administration.
It is interesting to note how the meeting between Chinese President Xi Jinping and
Guinea-Bissau President Umaro Sissoco Embalo in 2024 underlined what we have
repeatedly expressed in this article, namely that the relations between the two countries
are dictated by a common history: “Xi Jinping noted that China and Guinea-Bissau have
a history of special friendship. China supports Guinea-Bissau in independently exploring
a development path that suits its national conditions and intends to inherit the traditional
friendship with Guinea-Bissau
42
”. The two presidents decided to elevate the relationship
between the two countries to a strategic partnership
48
. This type of partnership,
demonstrating how the model of social and economic relations is very similar to that
developed in the Mao era, would produce a type of multilevel exchange, ranging from
economic aid to infrastructure construction to trade
43
. In this meeting it was highlighted
that “both China and Africa have splendid civilizations, both have suffered from the
painful history of colonization and aggression, and both cherish and pursue national
independence and liberation
44
”.
Currently, the two countries are working on the mining sector in Guinea, as Guinea-
Bissau has signed an important agreement with Chinalco
45
. Partnership (within the BRI
project) therefore manifests itself not only in the construction of infrastructure
46
, but also
in commercial alliances.
That said, the level of infrastructure construction also plays a role in this type of
partnership: “Speaking at Osvaldo Vieira International Airport in Bissau before his trip,
42
CRI Online staff, Colloquio tra Xi Jinping e presidente di Guinea-Bissau, Umaro Sissoco Embalo, on CRI online
[translated from Italian]: https://italian.cri.cn/2024/07/10/ARTIzKaE0xRoIehr3fAO8PhS240710.shtml
48
AfricaNews staff, Guinea-Bissau, China upgrade ties as presidents meet, on AfricaNews:
https://www.africanews.com/2024/07/11/guinea-bissau-china-upgrade-ties-as-presidents-meet/
43
“Guinea-Bissau hopes to learn from China's development experience, and strengthen cooperation with China
in areas such as trade, investment, infrastructure and mineral resources” [Xinhua staff, Chinese, Guinea-Bissau
presidents hold talks, elevate ties, on Xinhua:
https://english.news.cn/20240711/89ecee3ff4694d5f8fe67ca686b244d2/c.html ].
44
Xinhua staff, Chinese, Guinea-Bissau presidents hold talks, elevate ties, on Xinhua:
https://english.news.cn/20240711/89ecee3ff4694d5f8fe67ca686b244d2/c.html
45
Sarnali Chakraborty, Advancing Guinea-Bissau's mining sector with the newly signed agreement with
Chinalco, on Al Circle: https://www.alcircle.com/news/advancing-guinea-bissau-s-mining-sector-with-the-
newly-signedagreement-with-chinalco-112691
46
Wang Zizheng, Lyu Chengcheng and Zhou Chuyun, Feature: China-Guinea-Bissau partnership yields tangible
benefits, empowers local fisheries, on Xhinua:
https://english.news.cn/20240712/726db3f9f1e74646b8f38bc3e8f3a575/c.html
JANUS.NET, e-journal of International Relations
e-ISSN: 1647-7251
VOL. 16, Nº. 2
November 2025-April 2026, pp. 387-404
Relations between the People's Republic of China and Guinea-Bissau
between Diplomacy, Economy and Security
Orazio Maria Gnerre
400
Sissoco Embaló said that China had committed a further US$27.5 million to Guinea-
Bissau to be allocated to new projects. Infrastructure currently being built with China’s
help includes an 8.2-kilometre, US$14.8 million highway connecting the airport to the
town of Safim. Upcoming projects include a conference centre, around 300 kilometres of
road rehabilitation, and a university campus for 12,000 students
47
”.
Conclusions
We have seen how the history of Guinea-Bissau and the People's Republic of China has
already been intertwined at the time of decolonization. This was due both to theoretical-
political issues and to the material and geopolitical interests of both the actors in
question. This type of gravitational field that was activated in the decolonial period
between Asia and Africa is certainly not extinguishable due to transitory political issues,
but manifests a long-lasting trend under which compelling reasons are harboring. These
reasons must be kept in mind because they represent one of the key issues for
interpreting contemporary international politics and the advanced stage of globalization
processes. The latter, as President Xi Jinping himself reiterated in his 2017 speech at the
Davos Forum
48
, are not only the processes of deconstructing international security or
political sovereignty created by uncontrolled market phenomena, but they are also the
establishment of relations of mutual interest between global actors for the benefit of a
spread of well-being and human development. This type of request was naturally
processed within the political discourse of territorial and national realities that have
experienced periods of subordination.
With this article we intend to demonstrate how the relations between China and Guinea-
Bissau, which have developed over a long period of contemporary history, from the
context of the Cold War to the present day in a phase of growing multipolarization, have
occurred on a double track, that is, that of diplomatic dialogue permitted by a certain
type of political-cultural attitude, and by a realistic approach towards the economic and
trade needs of the two countries. Specifically, the colonial question is not of secondary
importance with respect to these two areas, because decolonization provides both a
framework of political meaning to the cooperation between the two countries (which
therefore also occurs in areas other than the merely economic one), but also guarantees
the development of a certain type of international trade that has its origins in the time
of cooperation between non-alienated countries. The meaning we want to derive from
this is that in certain global contexts a certain type of diplomatic, political and economic
relationship is inseparable, and represents a unitary nexus that has been composed and
stratified in recent history. This is why, despite ups and downs, the near future of Guinea-
Bissau and China seem to be closely linked. The question, however, cannot be considered
without bearing in mind the intercontinental relations between Asia and Africa, and the
role that both of these continents are assuming on the face of the earth.
47
The Macao News staff, Guinea-Bissau and China sign a strategic partnership agreement, on The Macao News:
https://macaonews.org/news/lusofonia/china-guinea-bissau-strategic-partnership/
48
Xi Jinping, Full Text: Xi Jinping's keynote speech at the World Economic Forum, on The State Council
Information
Office of the People's Republic of China website:
http://www.china.org.cn/node_7247529/content_40569136.htm
JANUS.NET, e-journal of International Relations
e-ISSN: 1647-7251
VOL. 16, Nº. 2
November 2025-April 2026, pp. 387-404
Relations between the People's Republic of China and Guinea-Bissau
between Diplomacy, Economy and Security
Orazio Maria Gnerre
401
References
AA.VV. (2019). Guinea-Bissau Disaster Risk Profile – Floods & Droughts, UN Office for
Disaster Risk Reduction, 2019: http://riskprofilesundrr.org/documents/1521
AA.VV., BRICS in Africa: Economic Ties and Impact. BCP Papers – v. 7 n. 1, on BRICS
Policy Center website: https://bricspolicycenter.org/en/publications/brics-in-
africaeconomic-ties-and-impacts/
Africa News staff, DRC faces economic challenges, on Africa News:
https://www.africanews.com/2019/06/20/drc-faces-economic-challenges/
African Development Bank Group, Guinea-Bissau Economic Outlook, on African
Development Bank Group website: https://www.afdb.org/en/countries/west-
africa/guineabissau/guinea-bissau-economic-outlook
AfricaNews staff, Guinea-Bissau, China upgrade ties as presidents meet, on AfricaNews:
https://www.africanews.com/2024/07/11/guinea-bissau-china-upgrade-ties-as-
presidentsmeet/
Amado, Abel Djassi (2020). The PAIGC ‘Congratulatory’ Diplomacy towards Communist
States, 1960-1964, in Lusotopie, vol. 19, no.1, p. 5:
https://journals.openedition.org/lusotopie/4640
An, Jiang (2013), Mao Zedong's “Three Worlds” theory: Political considerations and value
for the times, in Social Sciences in China, vol. 34 no. 1, pp. 35-57.
Byrne, Jeffrey James (2014). The Cold War in Africa, in Artemy M. Kalinovsky and Craig
Daigle [edited by], The Routledge Handbook of the Cold War, Routledge, London / New
York, pp. 149-162.
Chakraborty, Sarnali. Advancing Guinea-Bissau's mining sector with the newly signed
agreement with Chinalco, on Al Circle: https://www.alcircle.com/news/advancing-
guineabissau-s-mining-sector-with-the-newly-signed-agreement-with-chinalco-112691
Climate Change Knowledge Portal, Guinea-Bissau, on Climate Change Knowledge Portal
– The World Bank website:
https://climateknowledgeportal.worldbank.org/country/guineabissau/vulnerability
CRI Online staff, Colloquio tra Xi Jinping e presidente di Guinea-Bissau, Umaro Sissoco
Embalo, on CRI online:
https://italian.cri.cn/2024/07/10/ARTIzKaE0xRoIehr3fAO8PhS240710.shtml
Devonshire-Ellis, Chris. Guinea-Bissau Joins The Belt And Road Initiative, on Silk Road
Briefing: https://www.silkroadbriefing.com/news/2021/11/28/guinea-bissau-joins-the-
beltand-road-initiative/
Editorial Department of Renmin Ribao (1977). Chairman Mao's Theory of the
Differentiation of the Three Worlds is a Major Contribution to Marxism-Leninism, Renmin
Ribao, Beijing.
Forrest, Joshua B. (2008). Guinea-Bissau Since Independence: A Decade of Domestic
Power Struggles, in Modern African Studies, vol. 25 no.1, pp. 95-116.
JANUS.NET, e-journal of International Relations
e-ISSN: 1647-7251
VOL. 16, Nº. 2
November 2025-April 2026, pp. 387-404
Relations between the People's Republic of China and Guinea-Bissau
between Diplomacy, Economy and Security
Orazio Maria Gnerre
402
Gnerre, Orazio Maria (2022). In the Flow of History and International Relations: A
Theorical Prophile of Contemporary China, in Bulletin of the Institute of Oriental Studies,
vol. 2 no. 1, pp. 106-119.
Heley, Geoff (1976). Defining Social Imperialism: Use and Abuse of an Idea, in Social
History, vol.1 no.3, pp. 265-290.
Jackson, Steven F. (1995). China's Third World Foreign Policy: The Case of Angola and
Mozambique, 1961-93, in The China Quarterly, no. 142, pp. 388-422.
Jian, Chen (2011). China’s changing policies toward the Third World and the end of the
global Cold War, in Artemy M. Kalinovsky and Sergey Radchenko [edited by], The End of
the Cold War and the Third World: New Perspectives on Regional Conflict, Routledge,
London / New York.
Li, Danhui and Xia, Yafeng (2018). Mao and the Sino-Soviet Split, 1959-1973: A New
History, Lexington Books, Lanham.
Lüthi, Lorenz M. (2014). The Sino-Soviet split and its consequences, in Artemy M.
Kalinovsky and Craig Daigle [edited by], The Routledge Handbook of the Cold War,
Routledge, London / New York, pp. 74-88.
Mao Tse-Tung (1964). On Khrushchov’s Phoney Communism and Its Historical Lessons
for the World: Comment on the Open Letter of the Central Committee of the CPSU (IX),
Foreign Languages Press, Beijing.
Mao Zedong (1998). On Diplomacy, Foreign Languages Press, Beijing.
Meisner, Maurice(2006). Mao Zedong: A Political and Intellectual Porttrait, Polity,
Cambridge.
Mingjiang, Li (2012), Mao's China and the Sino-Soviet Split: Ideological Dilemma,
Routledge, London / New York.
Ministry of the Foreign Affairs of the People's Republic of China, Guinea-Bissau, on
China.org.cn: http://www.china.org.cn/english/features/focac/183519.htm
Ministry of the Foreign Affairs of the People's Republic of China, Xi Jinping Attends
Activities Commemorating the 60th Anniversary of the Bandung Conference, on Ministry
of the Foreign Affairs of the People's Republic of China website:
https://www.fmprc.gov.cn/mfa_eng/topics_665678/2015zt/xjpdbjstjxgsfwbfydnxycxyfl
drhy hwlhy60znjnhd/201505/t20150505_704906.html
National Development and Reform Commission of the People's Republic of China, Guinea
Bissau Joins Belt and Road Initiative, on National Development and Reform Commission
of the People's Republic of China website:
https://en.ndrc.gov.cn/news/mediarusources/202112/t20211210_1307485.html
Nsaibia, Héni. Conflict intensifies and instability spreads beyond Burkina Faso, Mali, and
Niger, on ACLED website: https://acleddata.com/conflict-watchlist-2025/sahel-and-
coastalwest-africa/
Parenti, Fabio Massimo (2009). Mutamento del sistema-mondo. Per una geografia
dell'ascesa cinese, Aracne, Rome.
JANUS.NET, e-journal of International Relations
e-ISSN: 1647-7251
VOL. 16, Nº. 2
November 2025-April 2026, pp. 387-404
Relations between the People's Republic of China and Guinea-Bissau
between Diplomacy, Economy and Security
Orazio Maria Gnerre
403
Piccone, Paul and Ulmen, G. L. (1990). Schmitt's Testament and the Future of Europe,
in Telos, n. 83, p. 3-34.
Reuters staff, Congo an economic 'bright spot' in Africa, says IMF chief, on Reuters:
https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/congo-an-economic-bright-spot-africa-
says imf-chief-2021-12-08/
Review of African Political Economy staff, Amílcar Cabral’s life, legacy and reluctant
nationalism – an interview with António Tomás, in Review of African Political Economy:
https://roape.net/2023/05/03/amilcar-cabrals-life-legacy-and-reluctant-nationalism-
aninterview-with-antonio-tomas/
Scalapino, Robert A. (1964). Sino-Soviet competition in Africa, in Foreign Affairs, vol. 4
no. 4, pp. 640-654.
Şipeţean, Cristian-Constantin (2012). Economic and political relations between Romania
and African countries during the totalitarian regime (1965-1980), in Anuarul Institutului
de Istorie “George Bariţiu” - Series Historica, no. 51, pp. 229-237.
Sousa, Julião Soares (2020). Amílcar Cabral, the PAIGC and the Relations with China at
the Time of the Sino-Soviet Split and of Anti-Colonialism. Discourses and Praxis, in The
International History Review, vol. 42 no. 6, pp. 1274-1296.
The Macao News staff, Guinea-Bissau and China sign a strategic partnership agreement,
on The Macao News: https://macaonews.org/news/lusofonia/china-guinea-bissau-
strategicpartnership/
The World Bank, The World Bank in Africa, on The World Bank website:
https://www.worldbank.org/en/region/afr/overview
Elling Tjønneland, The Changing Role of Chinese Development Aid, CMI Insight number
2 March 2020, p. 4: https://www.cmi.no/publications/file/7173-the-changing-role-of-
chinesedevelopment-aid.pdf
United Nations Office for South-South Cooperation, About UNOSSC, on United Nations
Office for South-South Cooperation website: https://unsouthsouth.org/about/about-
unossc/
Dominic Wabwireh, Tensions rise in Guinea-Bissau over president's mandate expiration
date, on Africa News: https://www.africanews.com/2025/02/26/tensions-rise-in-
guineabissau-over-presidents-mandate-expiration-date/
Hany Wahila, Guinea-Bissau: Continued Turbulence in Struggle to Restrain Executive
Power, on Africa Center for Strategic Studies website:
https://africacenter.org/spotlight/2025-elections/guineabissau/
Wang Zizheng, Lyu Chengcheng and Zhou Chuyun, Feature: China-Guinea-Bissau
partnership yields tangible benefits, empowers local fisheries, on Xhinua:
https://english.news.cn/20240712/726db3f9f1e74646b8f38bc3e8f3a575/c.html
Xi Jinping, Full Text: Xi Jinping's keynote speech at the World Economic Forum, on The
State Council Information Office of the People's Republic of China website:
http://www.china.org.cn/node_7247529/content_40569136.htm
JANUS.NET, e-journal of International Relations
e-ISSN: 1647-7251
VOL. 16, Nº. 2
November 2025-April 2026, pp. 387-404
Relations between the People's Republic of China and Guinea-Bissau
between Diplomacy, Economy and Security
Orazio Maria Gnerre
404
Xinhua staff, Chinese, Guinea-Bissau presidents hold talks, elevate ties, on Xinhua:
https://english.news.cn/20240711/89ecee3ff4694d5f8fe67ca686b244d2/c.html
Xinhua staff, Xi raises three-point proposal on carrying forward Bandung Spirit, on China
Daily: https://www.chinadaily.com.cn/world/2015xivisitpse/2015-
04/22/content_20511293.htm
Jeremy A. Yellen (2019). The Greater East Asia Co-Prosperity Sphere: When Total Empire
Met Total War, Cornell University Press, Ithaca.
OBSERVARE
Universidade Autónoma de Lisboa
e-ISSN: 1647-7251
VOL. 16, Nº. 2
November 2025-April 2026
405
BETWEEN VISAS AND TOURISM: SCIENTIFIC PRODUCTION, ANALYSIS, AND
IMPLICATIONS FOR RESEARCH
EDGAR ROMARIO ARANIBAR RAMOS
romario.aranibar@usp.br
Bachelor’s degree in Business Management from Universidad Nacional de San Agustín de
Arequipa, Peru. Bachelor’s degree in International Relations and Master’s student in Tourism
Development at the University of São Paulo, São Paulo (Brazil).
THIAGO ALLIS
thiagoallis@usp.br
Bachelor’s degree in Tourism from the University of São Paulo Master’s degree in Latin American
Integration from the University of São Paulo, and PhD in Architecture and Urbanism in the field of
Urban and Regional Planning (FAU-USP), with an interest in topics related to tourism, tourism
planning, urban tourism, and mobilities. Currently, Associate Professor (MS.3-2) in the Leisure
and Tourism Programme at the School of Arts, Sciences, and Humanities of the University of São
Paulo, EACH-USP (Brazil)
Abstract
This study examines the relationship between visa policies and tourism, highlighting their
relevance for global mobility and economic development. It aims to identify patterns and
trends in scientific research on the topic, analysing how visa policies affect tourism flows and,
consequently local economies. The methodology includes a bibliometric analysis of scientific
production between 2000 and 2023, using Scopus, WoS and SciELO. The results highlight that
visa policies have a significant impact on tourism, with implications for perceptions of safety,
equity of access and sustainability. The implementation of technologies such as e-visa
improves efficiency and user experience, although challenges remain in their widespread
adoption. This analysis provides key information for designing more inclusive and effective
public policies aimed at enhancing the benefits of global tourism while minimising its
inequalities and adverse effects.
Keywords
Visa Policies, SDG 8.9 - Sustainable Tourism, Bibliometric Analysis, International Human
Mobility, Public Policies.
Resumo
Este estudo examina a relação entre as políticas de visto e o turismo, destacando sua
relevância para a mobilidade global e o desenvolvimento econômico. Seu objetivo é identificar
padrões e tendências na pesquisa científica sobre o tema, analisando como as políticas de
visto afetam os fluxos de turismo e, consequentemente as economias locais. A metodologia
inclui uma análise bibliométrica da produção científica entre 2000 e 2023, usando Scopus,
WoS e SciELO. Os resultados destacam que as políticas de visto têm um impacto significativo
no turismo, com implicações para as percepções de segurança, equidade de acesso e
sustentabilidade. A implementação de tecnologias como o visto eletrônico melhora a eficiência
e a experiência do usuário, embora ainda haja desafios para sua adoção generalizada. Essa
análise fornece informações importantes para a elaboração de políticas públicas mais
JANUS.NET, e-journal of International Relations
e-ISSN: 1647-7251
VOL. 16, Nº. 2
November 2025-April 2026, pp. 405-428
Between Visas and Tourism: Scientific Production, Analysis, and Implications for Research
Edgar Romario Aranibar Ramos, Thiago Allis
406
inclusivas e eficazes destinadas a aumentar os benefícios do turismo global e, ao mesmo
tempo, minimizar suas desigualdades e efeitos adversos.
Palavras-chave
Vistos, ODS 8.9 – Turismo Sustentável, Análise bibliométrica, Mobilidade humana
internacional, Políticas públicas.
How to cite this article
Ramos, Edgar Romario Aranibar & Allis, Thiago (2025). Between Visas and Tourism: Scientific
Production, Analysis, and Implications for Research. Janus.net, e-journal of international relations.
VOL. 16, Nº. 2, November 2025-April 2026, pp. 405-428. DOI https://doi.org/10.26619/1647-
7251.16.2.22
Article submitted on 7th January 2025 and accepted for publication on 1st August 2025.
JANUS.NET, e-journal of International Relations
e-ISSN: 1647-7251
VOL. 16, Nº. 2
November 2025-April 2026, pp. 405-428
Between Visas and Tourism: Scientific Production, Analysis, and Implications for Research
Edgar Romario Aranibar Ramos, Thiago Allis
407
BETWEEN VISAS AND TOURISM: SCIENTIFIC PRODUCTION,
ANALYSIS, AND IMPLICATIONS FOR RESEARCH
EDGAR ROMARIO ARANIBAR RAMOS
THIAGO ALLIS
Introduction
In today’s interconnected world, international mobility has become a cornerstone of
socio-economic growth and cultural exchange (Aranibar & Olarte, 2025). Within this
landscape, visa policies are far more than administrative procedures; they operate as
pivotal instruments shaping tourist flows, cross-border interactions, and the global
dynamics of human movement. Yet, the central problem persists: how can governments
promote international tourism as a driver of development while simultaneously
addressing pressing concerns of security, public health, sustainability, and migration
control? This tension underscores the need for a deeper and more systematic analysis of
the field.
Tourism, widely recognised as both an economic engine and a cultural phenomenon, has
consistently demonstrated its capacity to generate employment, foster investment, and
strengthen intercultural understanding. Policies of visa liberalisation and exemption
programmes have stimulated arrivals and created tangible benefits for host economies
(Whyte, 2008; Recchi et al., 2021; Abuhjeeleh, 2019). At the same time, restrictive or
poorly calibrated measures risk producing adverse effects: they may heighten social
inequities, exacerbate irregular migration, or strain destination infrastructures. Previous
research (Neumayer, 2010; Song et al., 2012; Czaika & Neumayer, 2017) has shed light
on these benefits and limitations, but further research is required to assess how these
dynamics vary across contexts and to determine strategies that balance economic, social,
and security imperatives.
Against this backdrop, the guiding research question of this paper is: what are the main
patterns, trends, and thematic orientations of scientific production on visa policies and
tourism, and what implications can be drawn for future research and policymaking? To
answer this question, the study pursues three specific aims: first, to quantify and
categorise the volume of academic output on the subject; second, to identify the
dominant themes, methodologies, and disciplinary affiliations; and third, to evaluate the
theoretical and practical contributions of this body of research.
Methodologically, the paper employs a bibliometric analysis combined with a systematic
review of publications indexed in Scopus, Web of Science, and SciELO between 2000 and
2023 in English, Spanish, and Portuguese. Following the PRISMA framework, the process
JANUS.NET, e-journal of International Relations
e-ISSN: 1647-7251
VOL. 16, Nº. 2
November 2025-April 2026, pp. 405-428
Between Visas and Tourism: Scientific Production, Analysis, and Implications for Research
Edgar Romario Aranibar Ramos, Thiago Allis
408
ensured the rigorous identification, screening, and synthesis of relevant studies. Data
analysis was supported by bibliometric tools such as Bibliometrix and VOSviewer,
enabling the mapping of research streams and thematic interconnections.
The significance of this work lies in its contribution to a more comprehensive
understanding of how visa policies intersect with tourism, informing the design of
inclusive, efficient, and context-sensitive policies. By revealing both the strengths and
the limitations of existing research, this paper advances scholarly debates while offering
practical insights for policymakers, international organisations, and tourism managers
concerned with mobility governance.
The remainder of the paper is structured as follows. The theoretical framework situates
visas within broader discussions of tourism, mobility, and regulation. The methodology
section details the bibliometric and systematic review approach. The results are
presented through quantitative and qualitative analyses of the literature, followed by a
discussion that contextualises these findings within academic and policy debates. The
paper concludes by outlining the main implications, limitations, and potential avenues for
future research.
Theoretical Framework
International tourism is a multidimensional phenomenon deeply conditioned by the
regulatory frameworks of host countries, among which visa policies play a decisive role
(Aranibar, 2024). By determining travellers’ entry for purposes ranging from leisure and
education to business and family reunification, visas not only shape the volume of arrivals
but also influence their origin, duration of stay, and overall economic contribution.
Restrictions such as excessive requirements, lengthy bureaucratic procedures, or high
processing fees act as barriers that constrain mobility and generate asymmetries in global
travel opportunities (Karaman, 2016; Artal-Tur et al., 2016). Conversely, innovations
such as electronic visas (e-visas) have reduced administrative burdens, improved
perceptions of security, and facilitated broader access to destinations (Recchi et al.,
2021).
Despite these advances, a review of academic databases reveals a scarcity of studies
that explicitly examine the nexus between tourism and visa policies. Among this limited
body of work, Young et al. (2023) highlight the case of a Liberian patient whose access
to treatment for advanced head and neck cancer was severely delayed by the
complexities of the U.S. visa process. Beyond the immediate health consequences, this
case illustrates how restrictive regimes can undermine equity and efficiency in the
delivery of cross-border services, raising ethical and administrative dilemmas that extend
beyond medical tourism. Such examples underscore the broader challenge of ensuring
that visa systems do not reproduce global inequalities by privileging certain categories
of travellers while systematically disadvantaging others.
Although some previous studies have addressed specific aspects—such as medical
tourism, labour mobility, or regional waiver programmes—there remains a lack of
integrative research that comprehensively analyses how visa regimes shape international
tourism. Addressing this gap requires moving beyond technical descriptions of entry
requirements and situating visas as political and social mechanisms that structure global
JANUS.NET, e-journal of International Relations
e-ISSN: 1647-7251
VOL. 16, Nº. 2
November 2025-April 2026, pp. 405-428
Between Visas and Tourism: Scientific Production, Analysis, and Implications for Research
Edgar Romario Aranibar Ramos, Thiago Allis
409
mobility. In this sense, incorporating perspectives from international relations, public
policy, and law becomes essential for understanding how visas function as instruments
of diplomacy, sovereignty, and governance, not merely as administrative tools.
Indeed, visa frameworks often reflect broader geopolitical logics. Initiatives such as the
Schengen Agreement in Europe (Wellings, 2022), or MERCOSUR’s Residence Agreement
in South America (Rivarola, 2021), exemplify how states use visas to negotiate
reciprocity, integration, and security. These cases show that liberalisation or restriction
policies transcend their immediate effects on tourism flows, operating as signals of
political alignment, cooperation, or exclusion (Anastasiadou, 2011). The absence of such
interdisciplinary approaches in the literature limits our understanding of the deep
interconnections between tourism, mobility, and the international system.
In that line, technological innovations are reshaping the governance of mobility. The
integration of digital platforms, big data, and predictive analytics into visa systems offers
governments new opportunities to anticipate tourist behaviours, enhance border
security, and streamline entry processes (Alauddin & Hassan, 2021). E-visa platforms,
biometric identification, and AI-driven risk assessments represent a convergence
between e-government and e-tourism that can expand accessibility while simultaneously
raising questions of privacy, surveillance, and digital inequality (Adukaite et al, 2014).
These developments confirm that visa policies must increasingly be analysed not only
through the lens of tourism management but also within broader debates on technology,
governance, and human rights.
Taken together, this theoretical framework positions visa policies as complex and
multifaceted instruments at the intersection of tourism, governance, and global mobility.
By bridging disciplinary gaps and highlighting emerging challenges, it establishes the
conceptual basis for analysing the scientific production on visas and tourism, thereby
illuminating both the opportunities and limitations that these regimes present for more
inclusive and sustainable forms of international travel.
Method
This study employed a bibliometric analysis using a systematic approach to explore the
scientific output on the impact of visa policies on tourism. This method allows for the
identification of trends, publication patterns, and key contributions within the field, as
indicated by Page et al. (2021). The PRISMA method was implemented to conduct a
detailed process of identification, selection, evaluation, and synthesis of relevant studies,
following the approach used in similar studies, such as those by Hermosa and Arco (2023)
and Quispe et al. (2023). Table 1 provides further details about the procedures.
The document search was conducted in three internationally recognised databases:
Scopus, Web of Science (WoS), and SciELO, targeting publications in English, Spanish,
and Portuguese from 2000 to 2023. The strings employed were “visa AND touris*”, “visa
AND turis*”, and “visto AND turis*” to the title fields, yielding a total of 33, 22, and 1
documents, respectively, prior to the removal of duplicates and the application of
inclusion and exclusion criteria. The search results are detailed in Table 1, which includes
a description of the selected documents by database, publication type, and analysed
indicators.
JANUS.NET, e-journal of International Relations
e-ISSN: 1647-7251
VOL. 16, Nº. 2
November 2025-April 2026, pp. 405-428
Between Visas and Tourism: Scientific Production, Analysis, and Implications for Research
Edgar Romario Aranibar Ramos, Thiago Allis
410
Table 1. Search Criteria and Analysis Parameters
Database
Scopus
Web of Science
ScIELO
Language
English, Spanish, Portuguese
Analysis Period
2000 – 2023
Consultation Date
16 September 2024
Document Types
Scientific articles, conference proceedings, and book chapters
Source Type
Any indexed source
Search Field and
Terms
TITLE (visa AND touris*) OR TITLE (visa AND turis*) OR TITLE (visto AND
turis*)
Results
23 articles
5 book chapters
2 conference papers
3 review articles
Total: 33
19 articles
1 news item
1 conference paper
1 review article
Total: 22
1 article
Total: 1
Bibliometric
Indicators
Quantity Indicators:
- Annual scientific output
- Scientific output by country
- Productivity by institution type
Impact Indicators:
- Most cited contributions
- Impact factor of journals with the highest publication
Quality Indicators:
- Keywords and relation to other topics
- Main research streams or trends (thematic map)
Source: Own elaboration.
Table 1 summarises the methodology used for searching and classifying the documents.
From a total of 33 records obtained in Scopus, 22 in WoS, and 1 in SciELO, scientific
articles, book chapters, and conference contributions were identified. This table also
outlines the bibliometric indicators employed: quantity indicators, such as annual
scientific output and productivity by institution type; impact indicators, including the
most cited contributions and the impact factor of the journals; and quality indicators,
such as the relationship between keywords and emerging thematic trends.
Figure 1 illustrates the systematic review process through a PRISMA flow diagram. This
process began with 56 records, which, after rigorous screening based on relevance,
duplicate removal, and accessibility, resulted in a final set of 27 documents. The
screening stage involved reviewing titles and abstracts to ensure thematic consistency
with the study’s objective. Subsequently, an exhaustive evaluation of the selected
documents was carried out to determine their eligibility and relevance.
JANUS.NET, e-journal of International Relations
e-ISSN: 1647-7251
VOL. 16, Nº. 2
November 2025-April 2026, pp. 405-428
Between Visas and Tourism: Scientific Production, Analysis, and Implications for Research
Edgar Romario Aranibar Ramos, Thiago Allis
411
Figure 1. PRISMA Flow Diagram on Tourism and Visas
Source: Own elaboration.
Specialised tools such as Bibliometrix and VOSviewer were utilised for data analysis,
enabling the mapping of key research streams and thematic interconnections. These tools
facilitated the examination of quantity, impact, and quality indicators, providing a
comprehensive overview of the dynamics within the field of study and their implications
for future research.
JANUS.NET, e-journal of International Relations
e-ISSN: 1647-7251
VOL. 16, Nº. 2
November 2025-April 2026, pp. 405-428
Between Visas and Tourism: Scientific Production, Analysis, and Implications for Research
Edgar Romario Aranibar Ramos, Thiago Allis
412
The combination of Table 1 and Figure 1 ensures a thorough representation of the
methodological process, allowing for the replication and validation of the results obtained.
This systematic approach guarantees that the findings significantly contribute to the
understanding of the intersections between visa policies and tourism.
Results
Quantitative Meta-Analysis: 2000–2023
The quantitative synthesis of the 27 studies published between 2000 and 2023 reveals a
diversified distribution of research efforts across six thematic categories (see Table 2:
Thematic Categorization). Impact of Visa Policies on Tourist Flows emerges as the
dominant area of inquiry, representing approximately 51% of the sample. Within this
category, studies such as Chi et al. (2022) and Yudhistira et al. (2021) consistently report
increases in arrivals ranging from 5% to 25% following visa liberalisation measures. The
evidence demonstrates not only a significant positive elasticity of demand to visa
exemptions, but also heterogeneous effects: while non-traditional destinations often
benefited most, traditional hubs occasionally experienced diversion effects, illustrating
the complexity of policy outcomes.
Technology and Visa Processes represents approximately 11% of the corpus, with studies
focusing on the digitisation of visa services. The works from Bangladesh (Akhter et al.,
2020; Alauddin & Hassan, 2021) report measurable improvements in processing times
and tourist satisfaction following the adoption of online systems, while Adukaite et al.
(2014) provide comparative data on the completeness and accessibility of visa
information across 165 national tourism offices. Quantitatively, these contributions
indicate that digitalisation reduces bureaucratic barriers, potentially broadening inbound
flows by improving information quality and transaction efficiency, though significant
variation persists between developed and developing contexts.
A further 11% of the reviewed studies fall under Visa Policies Related to Tourism and
Health. Quantitative evidence here is particularly salient in the context of medical tourism
and public health management. Young et al. (2019) document the growing demand for
medical visas to the United States, while Weinberg et al. (2016) identify tuberculosis
transmission risks among temporary visa holders employed in the U.S. tourism industry.
Earlier findings from India (Chinai & Goswami, 2007) estimate the rising contribution of
medical tourism to national GDP, with projections tied directly to the facilitation of visa
access. These results confirm that health-related visa frameworks constitute both an
economic opportunity and a regulatory challenge, especially in balancing patient mobility
with public health safeguards.
Regarding Migration and Tourism, accounts for around 11% of the reviewed works.
Quantitative assessments within this group, particularly in the United States, Australia
and Portugal, highlight the extent to which visa-dependent programmes structure labour
markets in tourism. For example, Terry (2018) reports recurrent patterns of precarity
among J-1 and H-2B visa holders, while Robertson (2016) quantifies the overlapping
contributions of student and labour mobility through the 417 and 485 visas in Australia.
Together, these findings emphasise that migration-related visas sustain critical segments
JANUS.NET, e-journal of International Relations
e-ISSN: 1647-7251
VOL. 16, Nº. 2
November 2025-April 2026, pp. 405-428
Between Visas and Tourism: Scientific Production, Analysis, and Implications for Research
Edgar Romario Aranibar Ramos, Thiago Allis
413
of the tourism workforce, though often under uneven and vulnerable conditions, which
in turn affects productivity and service quality in destination economies.
The category Tourism and Security Issues comprises 8% of the total, with a marked
emphasis on the dual role of visas as facilitators and barriers under conditions of
perceived risk. Kolker and Platzer (2021), for instance, estimate that nationals from Visa
Waiver Program countries contributed nearly USD 190 billion to the U.S. economy,
underscoring the magnitude of security-related visa facilitation. Complementarily, Cheng
(2012) demonstrates that demand in Hong Kong is highly sensitive not only to visa
policies but also to external shocks such as SARS, where the impact of health security
concerns outweighed economic variables. This category quantifies the delicate balance
between liberalisation and control, with evidence pointing to both large gains and
significant vulnerabilities.
Finally, Economic Implications accounts for 8% of the studies, consolidating research
that directly measures macroeconomic impacts of visa policies. Pham et al. (2018)
estimate that a rise in visa fees for Chinese tourists would generate GDP losses exceeding
potential revenue gains, with the elasticity of demand demonstrating a stronger negative
effect than projected fiscal recovery. Similarly, Li and Song (2013) apply econometric
models to show that restrictive visa measures during the Beijing Olympics produced
unexpected negative economic externalities, contradicting the expected tourism boom.
Together, these results provide robust quantitative evidence that poorly calibrated visa
regimes can generate long-term inefficiencies and undermine the strategic role of tourism
as a driver of national growth.
In terms of research provenance, the countries that contribute most significantly to the
study of the relationship between visas and tourism are the United States, South Korea,
and the United Kingdom, accounting for approximately 60% of the reviewed publications.
Authors from the United States lead in studies on the economic effects of visa
liberalisation on international tourist flows, while South Korea focuses on reciprocity
agreements and their impact on regional tourism. The United Kingdom, in turn,
contributes research exploring the relationship between tourism accessibility and security
perceptions, a key topic in the post-pandemic scenario. Other countries such as Spain,
Australia, and Indonesia have also made significant contributions in this area, examining
both the economic and social and cultural effects of visa policies.
Moreover, there is a relatively stable trend in scientific production on visas and tourism
over the past five years, especially between 2019 and 2023. During this period, studies
have increasingly adopted quantitative approaches and broad data analyses to better
understand how visa exemption policies affect tourist behaviour and the local economies
of tourist destinations. This trend reflects a continued interest in balancing the benefits
of simplified access with the need to ensure security and sustainability, adapting to
current challenges in international tourism.
Table 2. Thematic Categorazition
#
Title
Authors
Impact of Visa Policies on Tourist Flows
1
Regional visa-waiver program for open tourism development
Kim, T., Bae, E., & Kim, D. (2023).
JANUS.NET, e-journal of International Relations
e-ISSN: 1647-7251
VOL. 16, Nº. 2
November 2025-April 2026, pp. 405-428
Between Visas and Tourism: Scientific Production, Analysis, and Implications for Research
Edgar Romario Aranibar Ramos, Thiago Allis
414
2
Visa waivers, multilateral resistance and international
tourism: some evidence from Israel
Beenstock, M., Felsenstein, D., & Rubin,
Z. (2015)
3
Causal effect of tourist visa exemption schemes on
international tourist arrivals
Chi, P.-Y., Lee, K.-C., & Chang, K.-I.
(2022).
4
Heterogeneous effects of visa exemption policy on
international tourist arrivals: Evidence from Indonesia
Yudhistira, M., Sofiyandi, Y., Indriyani,
W., & Pratama, A. P. (2021).
5
“Your papers for a tourist visa”: A literary-biographical
consideration of isaac bashevis singer in Warsaw, 1923-1935
Stromberg, D. (2021).
6
Visa-free travel to sri kartarpur sahib: Historic pilgrimage and
religious tourism from indian punjab to Pakistan punjab
Chawla, T., Hassan, R., & Kaur, D.
(2020).
7
The Impact of Tourist Visas on Intercontinental South-South
Migration: Ecuador’s Policy of “Open Doors” as a Quasi-
Experiment
Freier, L., & Holloway, K. (2019)
8
The role of visa exemption in Chinese tourists’ decision-
making: a model of goal-directed behavior
Song, H., Lee, C.-K., Reisinger, Y., & Xu,
H.-L. (2017)
9
Do travel visa requirements impede tourist travel?
Lawson, R., & Roychoudhury, S. (2016)
10
The pernicious impact of visa restrictions on inbound tourism:
the case of Turkey
Karaman, A. (2016)
11
Examining the impact of visa restrictions on international
tourist flows using panel data
Artal-Tur, A., Pallardó-López, V., &
Requena-Silvente, F (2016)
12
The ideologies of national security and tourist visa restrictions
Webster, C., & Ivanov, S. (2016)
13
Would a single regional visa encourage tourist arrivals in
southern Africa?
Douglas, A., Lubbe, B., & Kruger, E.
(2012)
14
The impact of visa-free entry on outbound tourism: A case
study of South Korean travellers visiting Japan
Lee, C.-K., Song, H.-J., & Bendle, L.
(2010)
Technology and Visa Processes
1
Technology Application for Visa and Immigration for Tourists
in Bangladesh+B24
Akman, E., Karaman, A., & Kuzey, C.
(2021)
2
Visa and Immigration for Tourists in Bangladesh
Akhter, N., Hassan, A., & Alauddin, M.
(2020)
3
When e-gov deals with tourists: The case of visa information
Adukaite, A., Gazizova, E., & Cantoni, L.
(2014)
Visa Policies Related to Tourism and Health
1
Review of inbound medical tourism and legal details of
obtaining a visa for treatment of head and neck cancer
Young, L., Vimawala, S., Ahmad, N.,
Kushnir, V., Bonawitz, S., Brody, J.,
Enriquez, M., & Koshkareva, Y. (2019)
2
Tuberculosis among temporary visa holders working in the
tourism industry — United States, 2012–2014
Weinberg, M., Cherry, C., Lipnitz, J.,
Nienstadt, L., King-Todd, A., Haddad, M.
B., Russell, M., Wong, D., Davidson, P.,
McFadden, J., & Miller, C. (2016)
3
Medical visas mark growth of Indian medical tourism.
Chinai, R., & Goswami, R. (2007)
Migration and Tourism
1
Mobility through investment: Economics, tourism, or lifestyle
migration? Narratives of Chinese and Brazilian golden visa
holders in Portugal
De Fatima Amante, M., & Rodrigues, I.
(2022)
2
Precarity and guest work in U.S. tourism: J-1 and H-2B visa
programs
Terry, W. (2018)
3
Intertwined Mobilities of Education, Tourism and Labour: The
Consequences of 417 and 485 Visas in Australia
Robertson, S. (2016)
Tourism and Security Issues
1
Adding countries to the visa waiver program: Effects on
national security and tourism
Kolker, A., & Platzer, M. (2021)
2
Tourism demand in Hong Kong: Income, prices, and visa
restrictions
Cheng, K. (2012)
Economic Implications
1
The economic impacts of a changing visa fee for Chinese
tourists to Australia
Pham, T., Nghiem, S., & Dwyer, L.
(2018)
JANUS.NET, e-journal of International Relations
e-ISSN: 1647-7251
VOL. 16, Nº. 2
November 2025-April 2026, pp. 405-428
Between Visas and Tourism: Scientific Production, Analysis, and Implications for Research
Edgar Romario Aranibar Ramos, Thiago Allis
415
2
Economic impacts of visa restrictions on tourism: A case of
two events in china
Li, S., & Song, H. (2013)
Source: Own elaboration.
Table 3 presents an annual breakdown of scientific production on tourism and visas
between 2007 and 2023. Over these years, variability in the number of publications is
observed, with periods of high and low production reflecting the fluctuating interest of
the academic community in this field of study. Since 2007, when two publications were
recorded, interest remained moderate, with significant peaks in 2016 and 2021, when 8
and 4 articles were published, respectively. This increase could be associated with
changes in international policies or events that directly impacted mobility and tourism,
such as the tightening or easing of visa issuance in various regions of the world.
Table 3. Annual Scientific Production on Tourism and Visas
2007
2010
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2
1
2
2
3
1
8
2
2
2
2
4
2
1
Source: Own elaboration.
Although the years 2020 and 2021 coincided with the height of the COVID-19 pandemic
and severe disruptions to international mobility, the four works published in 2021 (n=4)
do not explicitly address pandemic-related restrictions or recovery strategies. Instead,
their thematic orientations show continuity with pre-existing lines of research. For
example, Yudhistira et al. (2021) measured heterogeneous effects of visa exemptions in
Indonesia, Stromberg (2021) offered a literary-biographical reflection on mobility
barriers in interwar Europe, Alauddin and Hassan (2021) examined digital innovations in
Bangladesh, and Kolker and Platzer (2021) analysed the U.S. Visa Waiver Program in the
context of security, with a short light in health issues. These studies reveal that the
academic production of 2021 did not shift to directly incorporate COVID-19 as an
explanatory framework, but rather extended ongoing debates on flows, governance,
technology, and security. The clustering of publications in this year thus reflects
productivity in established research lines rather than an immediate response to the
pandemic.
By contrast, the single paper published in 2023 illustrates a different dynamic. Its focus
on a regional visa exemption programme in Jeju demonstrates that scholarly attention
remained concentrated on the structural and long-term effects of visa facilitation rather
than short-term pandemic contingencies (Kim et al., 2023). The decline to one
publication may therefore be interpreted less as a sign of “post-pandemic stabilisation”
and more as an indication of thematic reorientation towards context-specific policy
experiments and regional governance frameworks. The absence of direct engagement
with COVID-19 between 2021 and 2023 underscores that, despite the pandemic’s evident
disruption of tourism, academic research on visas did not immediately integrate this
factor into its analytical core. Instead, the field appears to have prioritised structural
JANUS.NET, e-journal of International Relations
e-ISSN: 1647-7251
VOL. 16, Nº. 2
November 2025-April 2026, pp. 405-428
Between Visas and Tourism: Scientific Production, Analysis, and Implications for Research
Edgar Romario Aranibar Ramos, Thiago Allis
416
questions of accessibility, technology, labour, and security, leaving the pandemic as a
contextual backdrop rather than a central object of study.
Table 4 highlights the institutions and authors with the highest production in tourism and
visa-related topics. The university with the most contributions is The Hong Kong
Polytechnic University, with a total of two publications attributed to the author Lee, C.,
who appears to be one of the most active academics in this field. This institution, along
with others such as Clemson University and Kyung Hee University, represents a
significant source of knowledge in the domain of tourism and visas, specifically in the
United States, Hong Kong, and South Korea.
Table 4. Leading Producers in Tourism and Visa Research
Highest Production
No.
Institution(s)
Author(s)
Country(ies)
Source
1
The Hong Kong
Polytechnic
University (2)
Lee, C. (2) | School of
Tourism and Entertainment,
Kyung Hee University
(South Korea)
United States of
America (7)
Tourism
Geographies (2)
2
Clemson University
(2)
Hassan, A. (2) | The
Tourism Society (United
Kingdom)
Hong Kong (5)
Journal of Travel
Research (2)
3
Kyung Hee
University (2)
-Aluddin, M. (2) |
Department of Business
Administration, International
Islamic University
Chittagong (Bangladesh)
South Korea (3)
Tourism
Economics (2)
4
City University of
Hong Kong (2)
Song, H. (2) | College of
Tourism and Fashion, Pai
Chai University (South
Korea)
United Kingdom (3)
Annals of Tourism
Research (2)
5
Clemson University
(2)
-
Bangladesh (2)
-
6
International
Islamic University
(2)
-
Turkey (2)
-
7
-
-
Australia (2)
-
Source: Own elaboration.
The analysis of these results indicates that research on tourism and visa policies is
relatively dispersed rather than concentrated, with no single institution or author exerting
clear dominance. Each of the universities and scholars listed with two contributions
represents about 7.40% of the total corpus, while those with three contributions account
for 11%, and the highest producers, with five and seven works respectively, represent
JANUS.NET, e-journal of International Relations
e-ISSN: 1647-7251
VOL. 16, Nº. 2
November 2025-April 2026, pp. 405-428
Between Visas and Tourism: Scientific Production, Analysis, and Implications for Research
Edgar Romario Aranibar Ramos, Thiago Allis
417
18% and 25.93%. This distribution shows that although there are recurrent contributors
such as Lee, Song, Hassan, and Alauddin, academic production is spread across
institutions in Asia, the United States, and other regions. In terms of disciplinary
affiliations, the leading authors are rooted primarily in tourism, hospitality, and business
administration, but notably, the field of international relations is absent, despite its
evident relevance for analysing mobility, sovereignty, and cross-border governance. The
journals where these works are published, such as Tourism Geographies, Journal of
Travel Research, and Tourism Economics, emphasise quantitative and policy-oriented
analyses centred on tourist flows, visa restrictions, and economic impacts. Taken
together, these patterns suggest that the corpus, while modest in volume, is plural in
institutional and regional representation, yet still narrow in disciplinary scope, leaving
space for a stronger incorporation of perspectives from international relations, public
policy, and law.
Table 5 displays the studies that have had the greatest impact in the field of tourism and
visas, measured by the number of citations received. The Hong Kong Polytechnic
University once again leads in this area, with research by authors such as Goswami, R.,
achieving up to 116 citations. This high level of impact suggests that the research from
this institution has significantly influenced the field, possibly due to the relevance of its
findings for visa policy and its implications for tourism.
Table 5. Highest Impact in Tourism and Visa Research
Highest Impact
No.
Institution(s)
Author(s)
Country(ies)
1
The Hong Kong Polytechnic University (86)
Goswami, R.
(116)
Hong Kong (145)
2
Suleyman Sah University (82)
Chinai, R. (116)
United States of
America (119)
3
Marmara University (82)
Lee, C. (90)
South Korea (90)
4
Massey University (82)
Balli, H. (82)
United Kingdom (44)
5
Hang Seng Management College (82)
Balli F. (82)
Turkey (22)
Most Influential Articles
No.
Title
Author(s)
Citations
1
Medical visas mark growth of Indian medical tourism
Chinai, R.
Goswami, R
116
2
Impacts of exported Turkish soap operas and visa-
free entry on inbound tourism to Turkey
Balli, F., Balli, H.,
Cebeci, K.
82
3
Tourism demand in Hong Kong: Income, prices, and
visa restrictions
Cheng, K.
59
4
The role of visa exemption in Chinese tourists’
decision-making: a model of goal-directed behavior
Song, H., Lee,
C., Reisinger, Y.,
Xu, H.
54
JANUS.NET, e-journal of International Relations
e-ISSN: 1647-7251
VOL. 16, Nº. 2
November 2025-April 2026, pp. 405-428
Between Visas and Tourism: Scientific Production, Analysis, and Implications for Research
Edgar Romario Aranibar Ramos, Thiago Allis
418
5
Economic impacts of visa restrictions on tourism: A
case of two events in china
Li, S., Song, H.
44
Source: Own elaboration.
The analysis of these results shows that influence in tourism and visa research is not
measured only by the number of publications but also by their citation impact, with the
numbers in parentheses indicating the total citations attributed to each institution,
author, or country. For example, Goswami and Chinai’s joint work on medical visas has
accumulated 116 citations, making it the most influential contribution in the field, while
Balli et al.’s study on Turkish soap operas and visa-free entry has 82 citations, and
Cheng’s work on Hong Kong tourism demand has 59. This distribution suggests a
relatively dispersed field where no single actor dominates, as institutions such as The
Hong Kong Polytechnic University, Suleyman Sah University, Marmara University, Massey
University, and Hang Seng Management College.
On the other hand, Figure 2 presents a mapping of the main research themes in tourism
and visas, categorised using relevant keywords. This diagram illustrates the connections
between key terms such as "visa liberalisation," "tourism demand," "visa restrictions,"
"tour operator," and "borders," which cluster to represent different research foci in this
area. The visualisation identifies relationships between concepts and how they group into
various themes, offering a structured view of the predominant and emerging topics at
the intersection of tourism and visa policies.
Figure 2. Themes in Tourism and Visas Based on Keywords
Source: Own elaboration
The keyword mapping reflects a thematic organisation highlighting several areas of focus.
Terms such as "visa liberalisation" and "visa restrictions" are central themes strongly
connected to "tourism demand" and "international tourism", indicating academic interest
in how visa policies directly influence tourism demand. Visa liberalisation policies and
travel restrictions are analysed in the context of their impact on international tourist flows
JANUS.NET, e-journal of International Relations
e-ISSN: 1647-7251
VOL. 16, Nº. 2
November 2025-April 2026, pp. 405-428
Between Visas and Tourism: Scientific Production, Analysis, and Implications for Research
Edgar Romario Aranibar Ramos, Thiago Allis
419
and destination accessibility, particularly in countries like China and Bangladesh, which
are mentioned in the diagram.
Other terms such as "borders" and "travel" suggest the connection between mobility and
the physical and regulatory boundaries faced by tourists, while terms like "tour operator"
suggest a focus on the actors who facilitate or mediate the travel experience within the
context of visa restrictions. Additionally, keywords related to econometric and analytical
models, such as "gravity model" and "co-integration analysis", indicate the use of
advanced quantitative tools to study tourism demand and flow dynamics.
Specific topics such as "visa-free travel" and "visa exemption" demonstrate interest in
the effects of visa exemptions on tourism, particularly in emerging markets and
destinations aiming to enhance their appeal through more flexible access policies. The
combination of these keywords highlights the complexity of the interactions between
tourism, mobility, and regulation, as well as the growing interest in travel facilitation
policies that seek to balance security and accessibility to maximise tourism's economic
impact.
Qualitative Meta-Analysis: Emerging Themes in Visas and Tourism
Analysing predominant themes and their trends is particularly relevant in bibliometric
studies, as it enables an understanding of the evolution and connections within a field of
research (Trip et al., 2021). In this context, the thematic development within this area
of knowledge is discussed below.
Impact of Visa Policies on Tourist Flows
Visa policies represent a critical element in the international mobility of tourists and the
configuration of global tourist flows. Previous studies show that these policies significantly
influence the number of international arrivals and the choice of tourist destinations. Visa
restrictions, which increase the cost and time required to obtain entry permits, can act
as barriers for potential tourists, discouraging travel to countries with more restrictive
policies. This particularly affects economies that rely on tourism as a source of income
(Chi et al., 2022; Yudhistira et al., 2021; Stromberg, 2021). According to Song et al.
(2017) and Artal-Tur et al. (2016), it is estimated that visa restrictions reduce bilateral
tourist flows by an average of 40%, while their absence can increase flows to alternative
destinations by 17%.
The impact of visa policies also depends on the region and economic context. In OECD
countries, the implementation of visa exemptions has been shown to contribute to
increased arrivals and tourism revenue, although this relationship is not always linear.
Chi et al. (2022) and Freier and Holloway (2019) highlight that factors such as the quality
of tourism services and the perception of safety play a key role in tourists’ final decision-
making. In developing countries, such as Ecuador, the opening of borders for tourism
has brought economic benefits but also challenges, including an increase in irregular
migration. This indicates that, in some cases, visa exemptions must be implemented
cautiously to balance the benefits of tourism with local security concerns (Chawla et al.,
2020; Webster and Ivanov, 2016).
JANUS.NET, e-journal of International Relations
e-ISSN: 1647-7251
VOL. 16, Nº. 2
November 2025-April 2026, pp. 405-428
Between Visas and Tourism: Scientific Production, Analysis, and Implications for Research
Edgar Romario Aranibar Ramos, Thiago Allis
420
National case studies provide evidence of the heterogeneous effects of visa policies. In
Indonesia, for example, visa exemptions have shown varied effects depending on the
country of origin of tourists and specific destinations within the country. This increase
was notably higher in less traditional destinations and among tourists from developed
countries, suggesting the need for tailored strategies to maximise the benefits of such
policies (Yudhistira et al., 2021; Freier and Holloway, 2019). Similarly, the Chinese and
Korean markets demonstrate that the expectation of visa exemptions can influence travel
intentions, encouraging visits to destinations with flexible access policies. This
underscores the importance of combining visa exemption policies with promotional
campaigns and improvements in tourism service infrastructure to optimise their
economic impact (Lawson and Roychoudhury, 2016; Lee et al., 2010).
In addition to general visa policies, visa waiver programmes emerge as a crucial tool for
facilitating tourism from specific nationalities and mitigating traditional barriers that limit
the flow of international visitors. These programmes, by reducing costs and simplifying
entry procedures, have proven effective in generating significant increases in tourist
arrivals. A notable example is Israel, where partial and full visa waivers increased tourism
by 48% and 118%, respectively, demonstrating how the removal of restrictions can
catalyse tourism and thereby contribute to the economic development of strategic
destinations (Beenstock et al., 2015).
In the context of specific regional programmes, the visa waiver programme in Jeju, South
Korea, stands out as a unilateral initiative applied solely to this region. Implemented to
boost tourism in Jeju, this programme allowed visa-free access for tourists from certain
countries, with a positive impact on tourism demand for the island. The data reflect how
such programmes, when aligned with regional development policies, can significantly
increase visits, despite challenges such as the need for direct flights to the destination or
visa-free transit policies at selected airports to facilitate access (Kim et al., 2023).
At the regional level, initiatives such as the unified visa for the Southern African
Development Community (SADC) have been proposed to facilitate cross-border tourism
and simplify the entry process. Inspired by the Schengen visa system, this policy could
reduce barriers and boost tourism in less developed countries, where international tourist
flows remain low due to factors such as perceived insecurity and limited infrastructure
(Douglas et al., 2012). These schemes not only promote bloc-wide tourism but also
facilitate trade and other cross-border interactions that can generate significant economic
and social benefits for local communities.
Similarly, the case of visa waiver programmes in Europe, such as the Schengen
Agreement, demonstrates how coordinated and multilateral policies can foster not only
tourism but also economic development and regional integration. By eliminating border
controls between member countries, Schengen has promoted the free mobility of people,
goods, and services, establishing itself as a reference model for removing barriers to
tourism and trade on a larger scale (Beenstock et al., 2015).
The relationship between South Korea and Japan is a clear example of the benefits of
visa waivers in a high-demand context. Following the implementation of the visa waiver
in 2006, the number of South Korean visitors to Japan increased by 25% in the second
year, resulting in a significant increase in tourism sector revenues. This exemplifies the
economic potential of such policies in established tourism markets and reinforces the
JANUS.NET, e-journal of International Relations
e-ISSN: 1647-7251
VOL. 16, Nº. 2
November 2025-April 2026, pp. 405-428
Between Visas and Tourism: Scientific Production, Analysis, and Implications for Research
Edgar Romario Aranibar Ramos, Thiago Allis
421
importance of analysing their impact in each context to maximise their benefits (Lee et
al., 2010; Karaman, 2016).
In this way, the elimination or simplification of visa policies can serve as a strategic tool
to promote international tourism. However, their effectiveness depends on a
comprehensive approach that considers security factors, infrastructure, and destination
image. Countries with well-planned visa strategies can benefit significantly but must
consider the particularities of their context and adapt their promotion and management
policies to maximise the economic and social potential of tourist flows (Studzińska, 2014;
Balli et al., 2013).
Technology and Visa Processes
The integration of advanced technologies in visa processes has been essential for
improving efficiency and accessibility in international mobility, with significant
implications for tourism. Akhter et al. (2020) argue that e-Government and e-Tourism
platforms, which facilitate the electronic management of visa procedures, have
significantly simplified tourist access to various destinations by reducing time and entry
requirements. In this regard, Adukaite et al. (2020) add that tourism websites in various
countries provide detailed information on visa applications, including steps, timelines,
and required documents. This digitalisation has improved the relationship between
tourists and governmental authorities, enabling more effective travel planning by making
information accessible from anywhere.
The quality of the information provided on these websites is a critical aspect for the
success of e-Visa systems, as a clear and comprehensive presentation of requirements
directly influences the tourist’s experience and perception of the destination. Alauddin
and Hassan (2021) emphasise that quality information on digital channels helps
overcome linguistic and cultural barriers, which is essential for hassle-free access. The
ease of applying for a visa online and obtaining permission without needing to visit an
embassy represents progress not only in terms of accessibility but also in optimising the
resources of authorities.
Moreover, the use of big data and predictive analytics in visa technology systems enables
governments to anticipate tourist behaviour patterns and adjust their policies and
services in real time (Akhter et al., 2020). These advanced tools facilitate more secure
and efficient management of tourist flows, helping to balance accessibility with security.
In this context, Adukaite et al. (2020) note that the digitalisation of visa processes within
the realm of e-Tourism fosters a convergence of user-oriented technological and
governmental efforts, with the potential for global expansion towards more accessible
and secure tourism.
Visa Policies Related to Tourism and Health
The intersection between visa policies and medical tourism plays a crucial role in
accessing specialised healthcare treatments. It is highlighted that international patients
face numerous obstacles in the process of obtaining medical visas, often delaying access
to urgent treatments. Young et al. (2019) discuss an illustrative case in which a patient
JANUS.NET, e-journal of International Relations
e-ISSN: 1647-7251
VOL. 16, Nº. 2
November 2025-April 2026, pp. 405-428
Between Visas and Tourism: Scientific Production, Analysis, and Implications for Research
Edgar Romario Aranibar Ramos, Thiago Allis
422
from Liberia with advanced head and neck cancer had to overcome complex legal and
administrative barriers to receive treatment in the United States, underscoring the need
to simplify processes to facilitate quicker access to international medical care.
In addition, visa policies related to public health have been adapted in some countries to
address the transmission of infectious diseases. According to the policy analysis of tourist
destinations by Weinberg et al. (2016), certain countries have implemented medical
examination requirements as a prerequisite for obtaining visas. This approach aims to
mitigate the risks associated with communicable diseases, though the inconsistent
application of these policies has limited their effectiveness. Notably, the need for a
coordinated international framework to ensure uniform health checks for travellers is
emphasised.
Furthermore, medical tourism has also been promoted as an economic development
strategy in countries that have adopted specific medical visas. These visas, designed to
facilitate the entry of patients seeking advanced treatments, have been successfully
implemented in countries such as India, attracting thousands of medical tourists
annually. However, Chinai and Goswami (2007) point out that, while these policies
generate significant revenue, their impact on the equity of the local healthcare system
remains a matter of debate, as access for the local population could be affected in favour
of medical tourists.
Economic Implications
Visa policies have a direct impact on national economies, particularly in sectors reliant
on tourism. According to Pham et al. (2018), increases in visa fees can deter tourists,
negatively affecting the gross domestic product (GDP) of host countries. An example is
Australia, where the implementation of multiple-entry visas with high fees led to a 21%
decline in Chinese tourist arrivals, resulting in significant economic losses that exceeded
the revenue generated by visa fees. This case underscores the need for balanced visa
policies that maximise revenue without compromising tourist demand.
International events such as the 2008 Beijing Olympics highlight the complex interactions
between visa policies and economic benefits. During this event, visa restrictions
significantly reduced tourism revenue, causing losses of approximately $964 million (Li
and Song, 2013). However, easing visa policies can reverse these trends, as projections
indicate that relaxing restrictions could lead to a significant increase in global tourism
and generate billions in additional revenue. These findings emphasise the importance of
designing visa policies that balance mobility facilitation with security, thereby optimising
economic benefits for host economies.
Tourism and Security Issues
International tourism depends not only on open and facilitative migration policies but
also on the perception of safety in tourist destinations. Security policies associated with
visa waiver programmes, such as the Visa Waiver Program (VWP) in the United States,
are notable for their dual benefits: promoting tourism while maintaining high security
standards. According to Kolker and Platzer (2020), the VWP imposes stringent security
JANUS.NET, e-journal of International Relations
e-ISSN: 1647-7251
VOL. 16, Nº. 2
November 2025-April 2026, pp. 405-428
Between Visas and Tourism: Scientific Production, Analysis, and Implications for Research
Edgar Romario Aranibar Ramos, Thiago Allis
423
requirements, such as the mandatory use of electronic passports and participation in
information-sharing systems on terrorism and crime via INTERPOL. This dual function
aims to balance tourism promotion with protection against potential threats.
On the other hand, Cheng (2012) highlights that the perception of risk is a crucial
determinant of tourism demand, particularly following events such as terrorist attacks or
health crises. The implementation of visible security measures, such as biometric controls
and pre-travel checks, can alleviate tourists' fears and foster greater confidence in
destinations. This is especially relevant in contexts where tourism is a major source of
income, such as Hong Kong, which has implemented specific policies to ensure tourist
safety while promoting economic growth in the sector.
Migration and Tourism
The relationship between migration and tourism has been reinforced by temporary
mobility programmes that integrate work, study, and travel, reshaping labour and social
dynamics in host countries. In Australia, for example, temporary work visas such as
categories 417 and 485 allow young people to work, study, and travel, generating
intersections between tourism and migration policies where work and educational
experiences contribute to broader economic goals, such as labour diversification and
regional tourism growth (Robertson, 2016). In the United States, programmes such as
J-1 and H-2B visas have been essential to meeting seasonal demand in the tourism
industry, particularly in hospitality and entertainment. However, these programmes have
been criticised for producing precarious labour conditions, including low wages and
limited access to social benefits. In this context, Terry (2018) stresses the importance of
a more balanced approach that protects workers’ rights while addressing the economic
needs of the tourism sector. The growing reliance on migrant labour raises further
questions about how visa policies can adapt to meet market demands without
undermining equity and community cohesion.
Alongside these schemes, privileged mobility programmes such as Portugal’s golden visas
illustrate another dimension of the migration–tourism nexus, where residency permits
are granted to individuals with substantial economic capital through real estate
investment. As Amante and Rodrigues (2020) argue, these programmes not only
promote elite migration but also stimulate residential and cultural tourism in key
destinations such as Lisbon and Porto. This phenomenon highlights how international
mobility is increasingly oriented towards the pursuit of desired lifestyles, reflecting the
complexity of motivations that underpin contemporary migration. Together, these cases
reveal the dual role of visa frameworks: on one hand, sustaining critical labour segments
in tourism through temporary and seasonal schemes, and on the other, promoting elite
forms of mobility that reconfigure urban spaces and local economies.
Discussion and Conclusions
The bibliometric review of scientific production on visa policies and their impact on
tourism revealed significant insights into how mobility regimes shape international tourist
flows and the socio-economic dynamics of destinations. The evidence shows that visa
JANUS.NET, e-journal of International Relations
e-ISSN: 1647-7251
VOL. 16, Nº. 2
November 2025-April 2026, pp. 405-428
Between Visas and Tourism: Scientific Production, Analysis, and Implications for Research
Edgar Romario Aranibar Ramos, Thiago Allis
424
exemptions and facilitation programmes consistently stimulate arrivals, with countries
such as Israel and South Korea reporting notable increases in revenues after adopting
more flexible entry schemes. These findings confirm that easing entry requirements can
function as a powerful policy instrument for boosting tourism competitiveness. At the
same time, however, they also highlight inherent risks. Destinations that liberalise access
without parallel investments in infrastructure, environmental management, or cultural
preservation face the danger of overcrowding, resource depletion, and weakened cultural
sustainability. This indicates that the benefits of visa liberalisation are highly contingent
on the capacity of destinations to integrate facilitation policies with responsible tourism
planning.
A second contribution of the study lies in highlighting the transformative role of
technology in visa processes. E-visa platforms, big data, and predictive analytics have
significantly improved the efficiency of managing tourist flows, offering more secure and
user-friendly experiences. These developments illustrate how the convergence between
tourism management and digital governance is reshaping mobility practices. Yet, the
results also reveal that technological adoption is uneven across regions, raising questions
of equity in access. Moreover, visa programmes such as temporary work visas and golden
visas demonstrate that, while economically beneficial, they often exacerbate inequalities
by privileging certain groups of travellers or investors, thereby reinforcing socio-
economic asymmetries within tourism systems.
Building on these findings, the paper suggests that future research should strengthen
interdisciplinary approaches that bridge tourism studies with international relations,
public policy, and law. Such integration would provide a more comprehensive
understanding of how visas operate simultaneously as instruments of tourism
management and foreign policy. Policymakers are encouraged to design visa frameworks
that balance openness with sustainability, prioritise inclusivity, and incorporate
technological tools responsibly.
This study is not without limitations. The reliance on bibliometric methods, while useful
for identifying patterns and trends, does not capture the full complexity of policy
implementation at the national or regional level.
In conclusion, visa policies emerge as complex governance tools at the intersection of
mobility, security, and development. Their potential to promote tourism growth is
evident, but their effectiveness ultimately depends on context-sensitive strategies that
reconcile economic objectives with social equity and sustainability. By mapping the state
of knowledge on visas and tourism, this study contributes to advancing both scholarly
debates and the formulation of more inclusive and effective mobility policies for the
future.
References
Abuhjeeleh, M. (2019). Rethinking tourism in Saudi Arabia: Royal vision 2030
perspective. African Journal of Hospitality, Tourism and Leisure, 8(5).
https://www.ajhtl.com/uploads/7/1/6/3/7163688/article_37_vol_8_5__2019_jordan.pd
f
JANUS.NET, e-journal of International Relations
e-ISSN: 1647-7251
VOL. 16, Nº. 2
November 2025-April 2026, pp. 405-428
Between Visas and Tourism: Scientific Production, Analysis, and Implications for Research
Edgar Romario Aranibar Ramos, Thiago Allis
425
Adukaite, A., Gazizova, E., & Cantoni, L. (2014). When e-gov deals with tourists: The
case of visa information. ACM International Conference Proceeding Series, 2014-January,
334–337. https://doi.org/10.1145/2691195.2691283
Akhter, N., Hassan, A., & Alauddin, M. (2020). Visa and immigration for tourists in
Bangladesh. In Tourism Policy and Planning in Bangladesh (pp. 105–
120). https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-15-7014-8_7
Akman, E., Karaman, A., & Kuzey, C. (2020). Visa trial of international trade: Evidence
from support vector machines and neural networks. Journal of Management Analytics,
7(2), 231–252. https://doi.org/10.1080/23270012.2020.1731719
Alauddin, M., & Hassan, A. (2021). Technology application for visa and immigration for
tourists in Bangladesh. In Technology Application in the Tourism and Hospitality Industry
of Bangladesh (pp. 199–211). https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-16-2434-6_12
Anastasiadou, C. (2011). Tourism mobility in regional integration schemes: a case of
political deregulation?. Journal of Policy Research in Tourism, Leisure and Events, 3(3),
237-255. https://doi.org/10.1080/19407963.2011.576867
Aranibar, E. (2024). Turismo mediante la movilidad humana internacional: Abordando
barreras desde las relaciones internacionales. Realidad, Tendencias y Desafíos en
Turismo (CONDET), 22(2).
https://revele.uncoma.edu.ar/index.php/condet/article/view/5492
Aranibar, E., & Olarte, M. (2025). El turismo como sistema social: contrapuntos teóricos
entre Talcott Parsons y Niklas Luhmann. Revista MAD, (52), 22-38.
https://doi.org/10.5354/0719-0527.2025.79428
Artal-Tur, A., Pallardó-López, V., & Requena-Silvente, F. (2016). Examining the impact
of visa restrictions on international tourist flows using panel data [El impacto de la política
de visados sobre los flujos internacionales de turistas: Un análisis con datos de
panel]. Estudios de Economía, 43(2), 265–279. https://doi.org/10.4067/S0718-
52862016000200005
Balli, F., Balli, H., & Cebeci, K. (2013). Impacts of exported Turkish soap operas and
visa-free entry on inbound tourism to Turkey. Tourism Management, 37, 186-192.
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tourman.2013.01.013
Beenstock, M., Felsenstein, D., & Rubin, Z. (2015). Visa waivers, multilateral resistance
and international tourism: Some evidence from Israel. Letters in Spatial and Resource
Sciences, 8(3), 357–371. https://doi.org/10.1007/s12076-015-0137-3
Chawla, T., Hassan, R., & Kaur, D. (2020). Visa-free travel to Sri Kartarpur Sahib: Historic
pilgrimage and religious tourism from Indian Punjab to Pakistan Punjab. Rupkatha
Journal on Interdisciplinary Studies in Humanities, 12(3), 75–
85. https://doi.org/10.21659/RUPKATHA.V12N3.09
Cheng, K. (2012). Tourism demand in Hong Kong: Income, prices, and visa
restrictions. Current Issues in Tourism, 15(3), 167–
181. https://doi.org/10.1080/13683500.2011.569011
JANUS.NET, e-journal of International Relations
e-ISSN: 1647-7251
VOL. 16, Nº. 2
November 2025-April 2026, pp. 405-428
Between Visas and Tourism: Scientific Production, Analysis, and Implications for Research
Edgar Romario Aranibar Ramos, Thiago Allis
426
Cheung, K., & Li, L. (2019). Understanding visitor–resident relations in overtourism:
Developing resilience for sustainable tourism. Journal of Sustainable Tourism, 27(8),
1197–1216. https://doi.org/10.1080/09669582.2019.1606815
Chi, P.-Y., Lee, K.-C., & Chang, K.-I. (2022). Causal effect of tourist visa exemption
schemes on international tourist arrivals. Economic Analysis and Policy, 75, 427–449.
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eap.2022.06.003
Chinai, R., & Goswami, R. (2007). Medical visas mark growth of Indian medical
tourism. Bulletin of the World Health Organization, 85(3), 164–
165. https://doi.org/10.2471/BLT.07.010307
Czaika, M., & Neumayer, E. (2017). Visa restrictions and economic globalisation. Applied
Geography, 84, 75–82. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apgeog.2017.04.011
De Fatima Amante, M., & Rodrigues, I. (2022). Mobility through investment: Economics,
tourism, or lifestyle migration? Narratives of Chinese and Brazilian golden visa holders in
Portugal. In Intersections of Tourism, Migration, and Exile (pp. 217–
237). https://doi.org/10.4324/9781003182689-13
Douglas, A., Lubbe, B., & Kruger, E. (2012). Would a single regional visa encourage
tourist arrivals in southern Africa? Development Southern Africa, 29(3), 488–505.
https://doi.org/10.1080/0376835X.2012.706042
Freier, L., & Holloway, K. (2019). The impact of tourist visas on intercontinental South-
South migration: Ecuador’s policy of “open doors” as a quasi-experiment. International
Migration Review, 53(4), 1171–1208. https://doi.org/10.1177/0197918318801068
Hermosa, P., & Arco, M. (2024). Artificial Intelligence (AI) in Sustainable Tourism:
Bibliometric analysis. Cuadernos de Turismo, 52, 157–
185. https://doi.org/10.6018/turismo.616431
Karaman, A. (2016). The pernicious impact of visa restrictions on inbound tourism: The
case of Turkey. Turkish Studies, 17(3), 502–
524. https://doi.org/10.1080/14683849.2016.1170602
Kim, T., Bae, E., & Kim, D. (2023). Regional visa-waiver program for open tourism
development. European Planning Studies, 31(5), 974–987.
https://doi.org/10.1080/09654313.2022.2132786
Kolker, A., & Platzer, M. (2021). Adding countries to the visa waiver program: Effects on
national security and tourism. In Visas: Categories, Work Visas and the Visa Waiver
Program (pp. 235–266). Nova Science Publishers. ISBN: 978-168507054-0, 978-
153619966-6
Lawson, R., & Roychoudhury, S. (2016). Do travel visa requirements impede tourist
travel? Journal of Economics and Finance, 40(4), 817–
828. https://doi.org/10.1007/s12197-015-9343-5
Lee, C.-K., Song, H.-J., & Bendle, L. J. (2010). The impact of visa-free entry on outbound
tourism: A case study of South Korean travellers visiting Japan. Tourism Geographies,
12(2), 302–323. https://doi.org/10.1080/14616681003727991
JANUS.NET, e-journal of International Relations
e-ISSN: 1647-7251
VOL. 16, Nº. 2
November 2025-April 2026, pp. 405-428
Between Visas and Tourism: Scientific Production, Analysis, and Implications for Research
Edgar Romario Aranibar Ramos, Thiago Allis
427
Li, S., & Song, H. (2013). Economic impacts of visa restrictions on tourism: A case of
two events in China. Annals of Tourism Research, 43, 251–
271. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.annals.2013.07.007
Neumayer, E. (2010). Visa restrictions and bilateral travel. Professional Geographer,
62(2), 171–181. https://doi.org/10.1080/00330121003600835
Page, M., McKenzie, J., Bossuyt, P., Boutron, I., Hoffmann, T., Mulrow, C., Shamseer,
L., Tetzlaff, J. Akl, E., Brennan, S., Chou, R., Glan-Ville, J., Grimshaw, J.,
Hróbjartsson, A., Lalu, M., Li, T., Loder, E., Mayo-Wilson, E., Mcdonald, S. & Moher,
D. (2021). PRISMA 2020 statement: An updated guideline for reporting systematic
reviews. BMJ, 372. https://doi.org/10.1136/bmj.n71
Pham, T. D., Nghiem, S., & Dwyer, L. (2018). The economic impacts of a changing visa
fee for Chinese tourists to Australia. Tourism Economics, 24(1), 109–126.
https://doi.org/10.1177/1354816617726204
Quispe, G., Jurado, J., & Ayaviri, D. (2024). El emprendimiento turístico rural y sus
tendencias a través de un análisis bibliométrico. Cuadernos de Turismo, 52, 69–
93. https://doi.org/10.6018/turismo.616391
Recchi, E., Deutschmann, E., Gabrielli, L., & Kholmatova, N. (2021). The global visa cost
divide: How and why the price for travel permits varies worldwide. Political Geography,
86. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.polgeo.2021.102350
Rivarola, A. (2021). Geopolitics and regionalism: A Latin American perspective. Latin
American Policy, 12(2), 221-235. https://doi.org/10.1111/lamp.12224
Robertson, S. (2016). Intertwined mobilities of education, tourism and labour: The
consequences of 417 and 485 visas in Australia. In M. Dickie, D. Gozdecka, & S. Reich
(Eds.), Unintended Consequences: The impact of migration law and policy (pp. 53–80).
ANU Press. http://www.jstor.org/stable/j.ctt1rqc9ds.6
Song, H., Gartner, W., & Tasci, A. (2012). Visa restrictions and their adverse economic
and marketing implications: Evidence from China. Tourism Management, 33(2), 397–
412. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tourman.2011.05.001
Song, H., Lee, C.-K., Reisinger, Y., & Xu, H.-L. (2017). The role of visa exemption in
Chinese tourists’ decision-making: A model of goal-directed behavior. Journal of Travel
and Tourism Marketing, 34(5), 666–679.
https://doi.org/10.1080/10548408.2016.1223777
Stromberg, D. (2021). “Your papers for a tourist visa”: A literary-biographical
consideration of Isaac Bashevis Singer in Warsaw, 1923–1935. European Journal of
Jewish Studies, 15(2), 256–284. https://doi.org/10.1163/1872471X-bja10007
Studzińska, D. (2014). The visa-free zone and tourism development in the Polish-Russian
borderland. Przegląd Geograficzny, 86(4), 525–
540. https://doi.org/10.7163/PrzG.2014.4.4
Terry, W. (2018). Precarity and guest work in U.S. tourism: J-1 and H-2B visa
programs. Tourism Geographies, 20(1), 85–
106. https://doi.org/10.1080/14616688.2017.1336784
JANUS.NET, e-journal of International Relations
e-ISSN: 1647-7251
VOL. 16, Nº. 2
November 2025-April 2026, pp. 405-428
Between Visas and Tourism: Scientific Production, Analysis, and Implications for Research
Edgar Romario Aranibar Ramos, Thiago Allis
428
Trip, D., Fagadar, C., Badulescu, D., & Badulescu, A. (2021). Entrepreneurship and
tourism through the lens of sustainability: Charting the knowledge base through
bibliometric analysis. Geo Journal of Tourism and Geosites, 34(1), 140–
146. https://doi.org/10.30892/gtg.34118-629
Webster, C., & Ivanov, S. (2016). The ideologies of national security and tourist visa
restrictions. International Journal of Tourism Policy, 6(3–4), 171–190.
https://doi.org/10.1504/IJTP.2016.081522
Weinberg, M., Cherry, C., Lipnitz, J., Nienstadt, L., King-Todd, A., Haddad, M. B., Russell,
M., Wong, D., Davidson, P., McFadden, J., & Miller, C. (2016). Tuberculosis among
temporary visa holders working in the tourism industry — United States, 2012–
2014. Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report, 65(11), 279–
281. https://doi.org/10.15585/mmwr.mm6511a3
Wellings, B. (2023). Nationalism and European disintegration. Nations and Nationalism,
29(4), 1164-1178. https://doi.org/10.1111/nana.12884
Whyte, B. (2008). Visa-free travel privileges: An exploratory geographical
analysis. Tourism Geographies, 10(2), 127–
149. https://doi.org/10.1080/14616680801999984
Young, L., Vimawala, S., Ahmad, N., Kushnir, V., Bonawitz, S., Brody, J., Enriquez, M.,
& Koshkareva, Y. (2019). Review of inbound medical tourism and legal details of
obtaining a visa for treatment of head and neck cancer. Head and Neck, 41(8), E125–
E132. https://doi.org/10.1002/hed.25743
Yudhistira, M., Sofiyandi, Y., Indriyani, W., & Pratama, A. P. (2021). Heterogeneous
effects of visa exemption policy on international tourist arrivals: Evidence from
Indonesia. Tourism Economics, 27(4), 703–
720. https://doi.org/10.1177/1354816619897150
OBSERVARE
Universidade Autónoma de Lisboa
e-ISSN: 1647-7251
VOL. 16, Nº. 2
November 2025-April 2026
429
ROLE OF FORENSIC SCIENCE IN PROTECTING HUMAN
RIGHTS AND ENSURING JUSTICE
APARNA SRIVASTAVA
asrivastava15@amity.edu
Professor of Political Science & Human Rights at Amity Institute of Social Sciences, Amity
University, Noida (India)
SHIVANI TOMAR
shivaniaa14@gmail.com
Assistant Professor of Psychology at School of Humanities & Social Sciences, Sharda University
(India)
Abstract
Right to Speedy trial has been recognized by the Supreme Court of India as an intrinsic human
right. However, there is failure in adequately protecting this right of the victims because there
is insufficient and inadmissible evidence that can stand the scrutiny of the court. The
prosecution bears the burden of proof in criminal trials under the Anglo-Saxon type of
jurisprudence that is adopted in India, with oral testimony serving as the primary source of
proof. Experience has demonstrated that most of the time, oral testimony is not accepted
because of some very pertinent issues. Witnesses examined long after the event are unable
to remember the significant and minute details of the crime in question, or they provide false
testimony in response to coercion, intimidation and incitement. Some even turn hostile in the
Court leading to complete turnaround of the case having devastating results for the victim.
Besides, due to lack of sufficient evidence and pressure to resolve the case within specified
deadlines, the use of third-degree techniques and other criminal tactics, such as torture, is a
trend among investigating officers. These practices can be completely avoided when evidence
collected by using forensic methods which has a greater admissibility in the court of law and
can fix the onus of crime on the accused resulting in delivering timely justice to the victim.
The article focusses on the role of forensic Science for protecting human rights and covers
cases both from primary and secondary sources to prove this hypothesis to be factual and
real.
Keywords
Evidence, Security, Interrogation, Prosecution, Training.
Resumo
O direito a um julgamento rápido foi reconhecido pelo Supremo Tribunal da Índia como um
direito humano intrínseco. No entanto, há falhas na proteção adequada desse direito das
vítimas, pois não há provas suficientes e admissíveis que possam resistir ao escrutínio do
tribunal. A acusação tem o ônus da prova em julgamentos criminais sob o tipo de
jurisprudência anglo-saxónica adotada na Índia, com o testemunho oral servindo como fonte
primária de prova. A experiência tem demonstrado que, na maioria das vezes, os depoimentos
orais não são aceitos devido a algumas questões muito pertinentes. Testemunhas
interrogadas muito tempo após o evento são incapazes de se lembrar dos detalhes
JANUS.NET, e-journal of International Relations
e-ISSN: 1647-7251
VOL. 16, Nº. 2
November 2025-April 2026, pp. 429-444
Role of Forensic Science in Protecting Human Rights and Ensuring Justice
Aparna Srivastava, Shivani Tomar
430
significativos e minuciosos do crime em questão, ou prestam depoimentos falsos em resposta
a coação, intimidação e incitamento. Algumas até se tornam hostis no tribunal, levando a uma
reviravolta completa no caso, com resultados devastadores para a vítima. Além disso, devido
à falta de provas suficientes e à pressão para resolver o caso dentro de prazos específicos, o
uso de técnicas de terceiro grau e outras táticas criminais, como a tortura, é uma tendência
entre os investigadores. Estas práticas podem ser completamente evitadas quando as provas
são recolhidas através de métodos forenses, que têm maior admissibilidade em tribunal e
podem atribuir a responsabilidade pelo crime ao arguido, resultando na justiça oportuna para
a vítima. O artigo centra-se no papel da ciência forense na proteção dos direitos humanos e
aborda casos de fontes primárias e secundárias para provar que esta hipótese é factual e real.
Palavras-chave
Provas, segurança, interrogatório, acusação, formação.
How to cite this article
Srivastava, Aparna & Tomar, Shivani (2025). Role of Forensic Science in Protecting Human Rights
and Ensuring Justice. Janus.net, e-journal of international relations. VOL. 16, Nº. 2, November
2025-April 2026, pp. 429-444. DOI https://doi.org/10.26619/1647-7251.16.2.23
Article submitted on 20th August 2024 and accepted for publication on 05th September
2025.
JANUS.NET, e-journal of International Relations
e-ISSN: 1647-7251
VOL. 16, Nº. 2
November 2025-April 2026, pp. 429-444
Role of Forensic Science in Protecting Human Rights and Ensuring Justice
Aparna Srivastava, Shivani Tomar
431
ROLE OF FORENSIC SCIENCE
IN PROTECTING HUMAN RIGHTS AND ENSURING JUSTICE
APARNA SRIVASTAVA
SHIVANI TOMAR
Introduction
The goal of forensic scientists is to collect and analyze evidence from the crime scenes
with a purpose to help the investigation and prosecution of crime perpetrators and an
intent to clear an innocent person of suspicion. The first forensic human rights expedition
was conducted by the skilled forensic anthropologist Clyde Snow in Argentina. It was the
grandmothers of the missing in Argentina had an ardent and tenacious desire to find out
what had happened to their loved ones which had inspired this expedition. In addition to
offering some closure and aiding in the healing process for friends and family, the forensic
mission also produced evidence that may be used in criminal prosecution.
The first Central Fingerprint Bureau of India was founded in 1897 in Kolkata, India and
started operating in 1904. Under the Department of Biotechnology, a cutting-edge Centre
for DNA Fingerprinting and Diagnostics (CDFD) has been built in Hyderabad. DNA profiling
is currently being used by police departments, forensic institutes, and wildlife agencies
to identify people and animals from biological fluids and tissue samples in criminal cases
involving murder, suicide, sexual assault, terrorism, and other crimes. Over 80 colleges
and universities can be found in India, including the National Forensic Science University
in Gandhinagar, Gujarat, and Rashtriya Raksha University in Lavad, Gandhinagar, where
the School of Forensic Science & Risk Management also provides education, research,
and training to students., Police and Paramilitary forces for security (National Forensic
Science University, 2024).
A deeper comprehension of the nature of unlawful acts and offenses, the essential
qualities and innate disposition of criminal minds and social control mechanisms is made
possible by the application of knowledge from science, technology, medicine and related
fields in resolving disputes. Physical evidence, whether biological (such as a cadaver,
skeletal remains, bloodstain, or saliva on an envelope) or nonbiological (such as
projectiles, synthetic fibres, and other things pertinent to an investigation— are analysed
to provide a scientific base and a tangible proof to the investigation process. The
conclusions then are quantifiable and grounded in a sequence of observable procedures
acknowledged by the judiciary.
At the same time, it is important to recognize that forensic science does not merely serve
the criminal justice system but also plays a central role in the protection of human rights.
JANUS.NET, e-journal of International Relations
e-ISSN: 1647-7251
VOL. 16, Nº. 2
November 2025-April 2026, pp. 429-444
Role of Forensic Science in Protecting Human Rights and Ensuring Justice
Aparna Srivastava, Shivani Tomar
432
By providing impartial, scientific evidence, forensic methods protect individuals from
wrongful convictions, reduce reliance on coerced confessions or torture, and strengthen
the right to a fair trial. They also uphold the dignity of victims by identifying missing
persons, restoring the truth of state abuses such as enforced disappearances, and
ensuring accountability in cases of extrajudicial killings or custodial deaths. Thus, forensic
science functions as both an investigative tool and a guardian of fundamental human
rights.
Literature Review
In his book, “Forensic Science- An Introduction to Scientific Crime Detection”, Wall
(2008) presented an extensive and update understanding of the overall context for
expert scientific evidence as well as how scientific methods are applied in the
administration of law, particularly in the criminal justice system. The author without
assuming any scientific background on the reader’s part, has thoroughly discussed every
advancement in technology in the field today. Lee & Pagliaro (2013) explained that, by
using forensic methods and plan of action, advance law enforcers have remarkably
increased their capacity to resolve crime offences. In present scenario, cases can often
be solved with forensic evidence investigation and a thorough and careful crime scene
examination. Forensic scientists play a vital role not just in criminal investigations and
prosecutions but also in civil litigation, major natural and man-made disaster relief
efforts, and the investigation of transnational crimes. Forensic evidence analysis requires
a team-oriented system, advanced investigative tools and methods (such as GPS
tracking, cell phone tracking, video image analysis, artificial intelligence, and data
mining), and the ability to properly process a crime scene by locating, obtaining, and
preserving all relevant physical evidence.
Rudin & Inman (2000) have proposed that reconstruction, or attempting to help
ascertain the causes, process, timing and place of the incidence or criminal act and the
associated or engaged offenders, is at the core of science's application to the legal field.
evidence that has undergone forensic investigation to help the court establish tangible
facts to settle a criminal or civil issue.
Further, Irons & Lallie (2014) identified the importance of digital forensic and suggested
that, the ability of digital investigators to apply digital forensics and investigative
procedures to obtain timely results is under increasing strain due to the rise in
cybercrime, the complexity of the various types of cybercrime, and the constraints on
time and resources—both computational and human—when addressing cybercrime. The
limitations and capabilities of the forensic tools currently in use must be overcome to
better utilise the resources at hand and address the issues.
According to Hollien (2002), voice-based evidence is a crucial component of many
criminal investigations and frequently consists of recordings made during police
questioning, robberies captured on camera, or threats left on an answering machine. In
the era of mobile phones, voicemail, and speech recognition software, technology is
everywhere. The book emphasizes strategies and procedures for assessing recorded data
and aids in understanding the fundamental sciences underlying voice recognition along
with exacting analysis of the scientific data regarding how well crime prevention works
in the US, the UK, and other countries. It examines over 600 scientific assessments of
JANUS.NET, e-journal of International Relations
e-ISSN: 1647-7251
VOL. 16, Nº. 2
November 2025-April 2026, pp. 429-444
Role of Forensic Science in Protecting Human Rights and Ensuring Justice
Aparna Srivastava, Shivani Tomar
433
crime prevention initiatives throughout seven domains: households, schools,
communities, workplaces, law enforcement, and courts/corrections, strategies and
processes for reviewing documentary evidence. According to Fisher (2009), among the
most crucial tools a forensic scientist uses is observation. The ability is used in two
distinct contexts: one involves searching a scene or an object in the lab for goals or
characteristics that could produce important evidence upon additional testing, and the
other involves identifying a substantial category of evidence that we can broadly refer to
as pattern evidence. The fundamental idea behind pattern evidence is that physical
objects have the ability to create impressions on other materials. By analysing these
impressions or marks, one can determine whether or not the object of interest left the
mark. Therefore, without downplaying its significance, pattern matching is a skill that
criminalists use as part of their evidence processing.
Additionally, the literature on forensic science increasingly emphasises its human rights
dimensions. Scholars such as Ferrándiz (2013) and Wagner (2019) have highlighted how
forensic anthropology has been used to address enforced disappearances in Latin
America, especially in Argentina and Guatemala. Similarly, UN reports (OHCHR, 2016;
UN Working Group on Enforced Disappearances, 2020) stress that forensic tools are
indispensable in documenting torture, mass graves, and war crimes. This literature
demonstrates that beyond crime-solving, forensic science is a mechanism for truth,
reconciliation, and justice in societies dealing with human rights abuses.
Central Question - Protection of human rights is possible through
forensic science
Many cases in the past have demonstrated that most of the time, oral testimony is not
accepted. Examined long after the occurrence, witnesses often forget specifics of what
happened or provide false testimony due to coercion or threats. These coercion and
threats may vary due to the psychological as well as physiological aspects of eyewitness
testimony. In contrast, forensic evidence is of a higher calibre and is more likely to be
admitted into evidence in a court of law.
On the other hand, advancement in science and technologies has led to newer techniques
and methods of criminal’s ‘modus operandi’ widening the field of crime. Therefore,
investigation techniques and further processes need to be modified to meet the demands
of present criminal cases to combat increasing rate of the acquittal and protect the
human rights of both side and at large give clear message in society also. To prevent the
rising rate of acquittal and safeguard the human rights of all parties involved in criminal
cases, investigation methods and subsequent procedures must be adjusted. In addition,
when there is insufficient proof very often, the investigating police have a predisposition
to utilise illegal measures, like torture and third-degree procedures. Such practices can
be completely avoided when evidence gathering can demonstrate the accused person's
innocence.
Forensic science therefore strengthens human rights in two ways: by protecting victims’
rights to justice and dignity, and by protecting the accused from wrongful prosecution.
It ensures that justice is based on evidence rather than coercion, aligning criminal justice
with the constitutional guarantees of equality, liberty, and fair trial.
JANUS.NET, e-journal of International Relations
e-ISSN: 1647-7251
VOL. 16, Nº. 2
November 2025-April 2026, pp. 429-444
Role of Forensic Science in Protecting Human Rights and Ensuring Justice
Aparna Srivastava, Shivani Tomar
434
Realizing the significant & a positive role of forensics to play in various cases, huge funds
have been given to States & Central forensic labs for building forensic capacities in India.
Under the
Nirbhaya Fund and Police Modernization Scheme, forensic infrastructure is being
developed. Specialised centres such as the University of Gujarat, Gandhinagar, are being
established, particularly following the 2018 Criminal Law Amendment Act. In the past
two years, more than 200 crores have been approved for forensic science (Kathane, et
al., 2021)
Main arguments on Protecting Human Rights with Forensics via case
studies.
Case Study One
On 07-07-2015, the complainant Roshani Aged 13 years (daughter of deceased) resident
of village Kalpa Distt Kinnaur, Himachal Pradesh, India got recorded her statement U/S
154 CrPc. before Chowki Incharge Kalpa and stated that her father had died and she
(complainant), her two younger brothers are living at Kalpa in a single room along with
their mother (deceased). Amila was stated to worked in Rolling Rug Hotel Kalpa. She
stated that on 05-07-2015 her mother namely Amila and aunt Kiran had gone to Kalpa
Depot in order to bring kerosene oil. At about 11A.M. her mother and aunt Kiran brought
kerosene oil and came back in a white-colored vehicle. After some time, her mother and
her aunt Kiran had gone towards chuglig pangi in the same white colored vehicle inside
of which one Surender S/O Shyam Lal (accused) was sitting. While living kalpa the
deceased Amila had told her daughter Roshani (complainant) that she will come back
soon. But said Amila did not come back on that day and on this, the complainant kumari
Roshani made search of her mother on her own and enquired from Hotel Rolig Rug
wherein the deceased was stated to be working, and the complainant came to know that
her mother had not come for work in the above stated hotel. Thereafter, the complainant
lodged a missing report in Police Chowki Kalpa. Based on the above statement of
complainant, a case FIR No. 27/15 Dated 07-07-2015, U/S 364 IPC was registered in P.S
Reckong Peo. This was a blind murder case and there was no direct evidence. Even
the corpus (dead body) of deceased could not be recovered for further investigation and
as such whole of the prosecution case was based upon circumstantial evidence. However,
the investigating agency collected all the important circumstantial evidence carefully
against the accused as a result of which the case ended in conviction.
Last seen theory
There was sufficient evidence on record that during the evening/night of 05.07.2015 the
deceased Amila was in the company of accused from Kalpa to Rampur and again from
Rampur to Kalpa. During investigation the relevant register containing the necessary
entries with respect to the movement of the vehicles passing from Police Check Post
Chaura was checked and on the basis thereof, it was found that accused along with two
female had crossed the barrier of above Check Post on 5-7-2015 at 4.40 P.M. in his
vehicle i.e. white colored Tavera H.P.- 01A -2992 and on the same date had returned
JANUS.NET, e-journal of International Relations
e-ISSN: 1647-7251
VOL. 16, Nº. 2
November 2025-April 2026, pp. 429-444
Role of Forensic Science in Protecting Human Rights and Ensuring Justice
Aparna Srivastava, Shivani Tomar
435
from Rampur and had gone towards Kinnour in the same vehicle along with a female at
8.42 P.M. and that on the next day at about 1.55 P.M. he had gone towards Rampur in
the same vehicle with four other persons. Also the woman travelling with the accused on
above date and time was duly identified as Amila (deceased) by seeing her photograph
by witness Hem Chand, who was posted at Police Check Post Chaura on 5-7-2015 from
6.00 PM to 10.00 PM. It is a established law that because there was such a short period
of time between when the accused and the deceased were last seen alive and when they
were discovered dead, it was impossible for anybody other than the accused to have
committed the crime. In this case none has seen the deceased after she had gone missing
nor had anyone heard anything about her.
Under the above circumstances onus was upon the accused to show that the deceased
is still alive and further to explain as to how and what circumstances, the deceased had
suddenly gone missing. Section 106 of Indian Evidence Act clearly provides that when
any fact is especially within the knowledge of any person, the burden of proving of that
fact is upon him. (State of West Bengal Vs. Meer Mohammad, Umar & others 2000(8)
SCC 382). In this case the Ld. Court has held that the only reasonable conclusion which
could be drawn from the aforementioned facts is that it was the accused who had done
death of the deceased and thereafter, with the intention to save himself from the legal
punishment had disposed of her dead body in all probability in Satluj River to destroy
the incriminating evidence against him.
Call Detail Record (CDR) Analysis
During Investigation, the record of call details of accused, witness Kiran and of the
deceased showed that on 05.07.2015 at about 8.50 PM the deceased and accused were
at place Badhal. The above evidence corroborates the version of witness Kiran. Thus, in
view of above CDR analysis, it could be safely concluded that the deceased was in the
company of accused in his vehicle on the date and time in question and as such the last
seen theory evidence in this case is fully established.
Presence of various personal articles and blood of the deceased on the
road near the house of the accused
On the next morning i.e. 06.07.2015 at about 6.30 AM witness Bhag Chand made a
report to ASI Narbeer Singh the then Incharge of Police Post Kalpa, that while he had
gone for a morning walk on old Hindustan Tibbet Road, he had found near Vanvihar
Ganghut Kalpa a jacket, chapal and some patches of blood on the road. On the basis of
this information, said Bhag chand accompanied by Police personnel went to the spot and
brought there from the above stated articles. All the articles stated above recovered by
the Police from the road were later- on identified by witness Roshni to be of her mother
Amila (deceased).
DNA Evidence
On 07.07.2015, the vehicle of the accused was found parked on the side of the road at
place Dhali (Shimla) and accused was found sitting in the vehicle in an inebriated
JANUS.NET, e-journal of International Relations
e-ISSN: 1647-7251
VOL. 16, Nº. 2
November 2025-April 2026, pp. 429-444
Role of Forensic Science in Protecting Human Rights and Ensuring Justice
Aparna Srivastava, Shivani Tomar
436
(intoxicated) condition and appeared to have consumed some insecticide as two half-
filled bottles were also found inside the vehicle and accused was also found vomiting.
The vehicle of the accused was taken into possession by the I.O. and the same was sent
to SFSL Junga, where the forensic team of the laboratory lifted blood samples from the
cover of the middle seat and foot mat of the vehicle.
During investigation, blood sample of witness Roshni (daughter of deceased) was
obtained. Blood samples lifted from the spot along with the jacket identified as of Amila
(deceased) having blood smears and the blood samples lifted by the forensic expert from
the seat cover of the middle seat and foot mat of vehicle of accused were examined by
the serologist and DNA expert. After examination, they opined that blood samples lifted
from the road near Van Bihar Kalpa, the jacket, the trouser of accused and the seat cover
of the vehicle of accused matched with the DNA profile obtained from the blood sample
of witness Roshani (daughter of deceased). During the trial of this case, the accused
failed to explain and remain silent how and in what manner the blood of deceased was
found on his trouser and also on the seat cover of his vehicle.
Act and Conduct of the Accused
After commission of crime, the accused left for Shimla and tried to commit suicide there.
He was admitted in IGMC Shimla and Dr. Pradeep examined the accused. The accused
again failed to give any explanation that why he left Kalpa, immediately after the
occurrence and what were the circumstances which compelled him to commit suicide.
The above act and conduct of the accused give support to the case of prosecution that
since accused had come to know that the police had suspected his involvement in the
commission of the crime and had been searching for him, so on account thereof, he had
come under the extreme mental pressure and had tried to commit suicide by consuming
insecticide on 07.07.2015 with the intention to escape from legal punishment.
Interrogation of the accused
After his discharge from IGMC Shimla, the accused was formally arrested by S.H.O
Laxman. While in custody accused confessed his guilt and disclosed that on the night of
05-7-2015 he had crushed Amila (deceased) with his vehicle at place near Van Bihar
Kalpa when she had refused to oblige him to sexual intercourse with him and thereafter,
he had put her body in a sack and thrown the body thereof in river Satluj from the cliff
with the intention to destroy incriminating evidence against him. In this regard the
statement of accused was recorded in presence of the witnesses and thereafter he gave
identification of the place where he crushed the deceased with his vehicle and of the
place from where threw the dead body of the deceased in Satluj river.
All above circumstantial evidence collected by the I/O during investigation was found
sufficient as the chain of circumstantial evidence was complete in all respect to bring
home the guilt of accused, therefore, the Ld. Court convicted the accused U/S 302, 201
and 309 IPC.
This case illustrates that even without direct evidence, forensic methods like DNA analysis
preserved the right to justice for the victim’s family while safeguarding due process.
JANUS.NET, e-journal of International Relations
e-ISSN: 1647-7251
VOL. 16, Nº. 2
November 2025-April 2026, pp. 429-444
Role of Forensic Science in Protecting Human Rights and Ensuring Justice
Aparna Srivastava, Shivani Tomar
437
Instead of relying on confessions extracted through force, the court reached its decision
on the basis of scientific, verifiable evidence, reinforcing the principle of fair trial.
Case Study Two Rape on pretext of Marriage with minor girl of SC
Category
In 2012 complainant Kumari Sheela lodged her statement that she is studying in 8th
class at GSSS Sultanpur District Solan. Her father was working as Mason with Sh. Yash
Pal Thakur and mother is working at Soolani University, Bazol. Anil Thakur working as
driver, frequently loitered nearby to her house and compelled her for friendship, but she
refused. He persuaded and promised to marry her and she agreed for friendship. In the
month of December,2011 when she was coming on foot from Rampur after tuition,
towards her school, anil thakur took her to the secluded place near Veterinary Hospital
and raped her. On 16/02/2012, she went to collect fuel wood from the forest, at about
12PM and Anil Thakur came there and have sexual intercourse with her. After sexual
intercourse, he threatened her that if she discloses this matter, he will commit suicide.
But she disclosed this matter to her parents. On disclosure of aforesaid matter, victim’s
parents tried to contact accused Anil Thakur, but he insulted and threatened to kill her
parents. As this case was registered under Scheduled Castes/Scheduled Tribes
(Prevention of Atrocities) Act, so as per the provisions of this Act, investigation of this
case was done by Sh. Rajesh Kumar Chhabra, DySP the then SDPO Parwanoo.
On 17/02/2012, complainant Kumari Sheela got her statement recorded at PP Dagshai,
which was sent for registration of case to PS Dharampur. After registration of case, ASI
Mehar Chand immediately sent complainant for medical examination to Civil Hospital
Dharampur. Thereafter, Medical Officer, CHC Dharampur referred her to Regional
Hospital Solan on the same day, where she was medically examined. M.O preserved all
the samples and handed over to Police for forensic examination. After medical
examination of victim, the Medical Officer, Regional Hospital, Solan opined that “In my
opinion there is nothing to rule out the possibility of recent sexual intercourse, however
final opinion will be given after report of forensic analysis”
On 18.02.2012, based on the statement of the victim, the accused was arrested after
adopting all codal formalities as warranted under law and interrogated. During
interrogation, he revealed that victim is his friend and on the pretext of friendship, he
had sexual intercourse with victim. Accused also revealed that victim agreed to marry
him, but her parents and relatives were not happy with this episode. Accused Anil Kumar
was produced before Medical Officer, CHC Dharampur for medical examination on
18/02/2012. M.O. issued MLC of the accused Anil Kumar. In the MLC of accused Anil
Kumar, M.O. opined that "Mr Anil Kumar S/o Sh Amar Singh there is nothing to suggest
that he is not capable of performing sexual intercourse however opinion is reserve till
the report come from forensic lab."
During the course of investigation IO/ DySP visited the Scene of Crime.
Videography/photography of occurrence was conducted from all angles. Spot Map was
prepared by indicating all necessary points of occurrence in the map. IO/Dy.SP inspected the
spot in depth and collected the physical evidence’s i.e. clothes of victim & accused and
seized as per procedure. The dockets (clothes of victim, swab, vaginal slid, hair, FTA Card &
JANUS.NET, e-journal of International Relations
e-ISSN: 1647-7251
VOL. 16, Nº. 2
November 2025-April 2026, pp. 429-444
Role of Forensic Science in Protecting Human Rights and Ensuring Justice
Aparna Srivastava, Shivani Tomar
438
DNA) were sent to FSL Junga for further chemical examination & analysis. All exhibits
preserved by Medical Officer i.e victim’s clothes, vaginal swabs, vaginal slides, pubic hairs
and accused person underwear, DNA test on FTA card and sent for chemical examination to
FSL, Junga. Accused Anil Thakur was in judicial custody on 21/02/2012 for fourteen days,
which was further extended and was ensured that accused, could not get bail upto the
presentation of the final report. Prime facie case was made out against the accused person.
Hence, challan U/s 376 IPC & 3(1) (XII) SC/ST Act 1988 was prepared by SHO Sh. Pritam Singh,
Inspector, dated on 17/03/2012. After receiving expert report from FSL Junga same was
produced before Medical Officer RH Solan for final opinion on MLC. The Medical Officer
opined that “there is nothing to rule out the possibility of recent sexual intercourse and final
opinion pertains to accused Anil Kumar is remain same as dated 18/02/2012”.
The case was tried in the LD Court of Session Judge, Solan. The accused convicted by
the LD Court on 26/08/2014. LD Court of Session Judge, Solan announced the decision
in different penal sections i.e. on 26/08/2014 and 27/09/2014, respectively. The convict
was sentenced to rigorous imprisonment for a period of 10 years and to pay a fine of
rupees 25,000. Under the SC/ST Act, the convict is sentenced to rigorous imprisonment
and to pay a fine of rupees 25,000.
Scientific investigation played a key role in the conviction of accused in this case. During
investigation under garments, vaginal swabs, pubic hairs of victim, underwear and blood
of accused were sent to FSL for chemical analysis and DNA profiling. DNA profile obtained
from the exhibits of victim matches completely with the DNA profile obtained from the
exhibits belonging to accused (Case Study, 2006).
Here, forensic science upheld the dignity and rights of a minor victim by substantiating
her testimony through scientific evidence. The reliance on medical and DNA evidence
meant that her claims were not dismissed as mere allegations, demonstrating how
forensics can empower vulnerable groups in seeking justice.
Case Study Three
The use of cutting-edge forensic science tools has served as a vital link in solving the
Kotkhai gangrape and murder of 16-year-old Gudiya.
The Central Forensic Science Lab of the Central Bureau of Investigation (CBI) was the
only resource that allowed the CBI to solve the case in nine months. The CBI focused in
on Anil Kumar, also known as Nilu, a 25-year-old man. A thick woodland is the crime
site, where the victim was raped and killed. The cops began their search and gathered
all the evidence, including clay from the crime scene, spirits bottles, blood samples and
samples of semen. Afterwards, more than 250 local residents' blood samples were
gathered to compare them with the semen and additional DNA samples.
Additionally, the police took statements from 400 persons and questioned nearly 2000
people. The first results were negative when the CFSL began comparing the DNA of 250
individuals with the accused's semen. Afterwards, the CFSL performed "lineage test" and
"percentage test" on all 250 samples, and happily, the results matched the sample. Blood
samples were taken from both parents once more after the sample matched with a
JANUS.NET, e-journal of International Relations
e-ISSN: 1647-7251
VOL. 16, Nº. 2
November 2025-April 2026, pp. 429-444
Role of Forensic Science in Protecting Human Rights and Ensuring Justice
Aparna Srivastava, Shivani Tomar
439
Kangra family. Investigation revealed that one of the family members has not been in
contact with the family since September 2016, when he went missing.
The Kotkhai case highlights how forensic science becomes indispensable when crimes
occur in remote areas with minimal witnesses. By scientifically establishing guilt, the
state was able to fulfil its responsibility to protect the victim’s right to life and security
while ensuring accountability of the perpetrator.
Case Study Four
Mumbai serial rapist-murderer case
Rehan Qureshi from Navi Mumbai allegedly had raped several minor girls and was a serial
killer. Two of the girls who died were four and nine years old. The entire police force
was under pressure to solve the case after three girls, aged 5 to 9, were raped and killed
in June 2010. One victim was discovered in a gunny bag, while another was discovered
on the terrace of the police quarters.
Police conducted thorough investigations, searched history sheets, distributed their
informers, visited mental hospitals in search of missing inmates, etc. and with the help
of Maharashtra Forensics lab performed more than 500 DNA tests on all suspected
individuals including the son of a top official. Although their efforts failed to find the
murderer, it was discovered that two murderers were involved in the crime, one of whom
was apprehended and sentenced to prison. The case remained unresolved till 2017,
however, till it was handed over to Maharashtra CID in 2012. With the added assistance
of CCTV, the police were able to narrow down their search this time to a suspect who
was wearing a blue shirt and was usually on the phone, most likely listening rather than
speaking. They suspected him of being a salesman. Despite being captured on camera,
he remained unaccounted for, with a fresh assault case being reported every week.
One day police patrolled the vicinity of Mira Road in the Naya Nagar area, where Qureshi
was frequently spotted. Sanjay Kumar, the commissioner of police for Navi Mumbai, was
among the local police personnel dressed in civilian clothes. Kumar noted Qureshi's tilt
movement when he was brought next to him, and the forensics lab received a sample of
his blood. After spending 40 lakh rupees on 880 tests, the forensics lab responded with
a smile and "Test no. 881 was a match" when another sample was submitted. This case
is similar to the serial killer Colin Pitchfork case, which was the first in the world to use
DNA testing.
The Mumbai case demonstrates how prolonged investigations without forensic precision
can risk violating the rights of both victims and accused. Once DNA evidence conclusively
identified the perpetrator, it restored faith in justice and prevented arbitrary suspicion of
innocent individuals.
Case Study Five Neeraj Grover Murder case
Neeraj Grover was a television executive who worked for Synergy Adlabs, a production
company based in Mumbai. He assisted Maria Susairaj in 2008 as she made her mark in
JANUS.NET, e-journal of International Relations
e-ISSN: 1647-7251
VOL. 16, Nº. 2
November 2025-April 2026, pp. 429-444
Role of Forensic Science in Protecting Human Rights and Ensuring Justice
Aparna Srivastava, Shivani Tomar
440
the motion picture industry. Maria was seeing Lieutenant Emil Jerome Mathew, with
whom she was engaged to be married in two months.
Neeraj Grover disappeared on May 6, 2008, after going to see Maria. When Neeraj failed
to return home for a full day that day, his parents reported him missing. Susairaj was
questioned by police after they suspected her of being involved in the incident, but she
steadfastly denied knowing Neeraj Grover's location. She persisted in telling the same
lie for eight or ten days before coming to terms with the fact that her lover, Mathew, had
killed him in front of her. She reported to the authorities that Neeraj Grover was fatally
stabbed by his boyfriend, who, in the heat of the moment, observed Neeraj with Maria
in a compromising position. Following the murder, they dismembered his body into 300
pieces so that it would fit in a suitcase. They then drove his friend Santro's car to the
outskirts of Mumbai, where they burned the body and dumped it.
It was insufficient, though, as further proof was needed to connect them to the crime.
The Forensics lab was therefore asked to compare the evidence. When there were no
eyewitnesses, forensics was crucial in helping to convict the perpetrators. The fact that
the forensic scientific officer was called upon more than twenty times in court to disclose
the process employed in the assessment of evidence indicates the reliance on forensics
examination.
The official told the court that they were able to collect DNA samples from washed
bloodstains and though the charred bones of Neeraj were insufficient to identify him but
three teeth, femur bones, and some other residue that was collected so as to extract the
DNA sample matched positively with his parent’s DNA. In addition, forensic analysis was
used to compare the mud extracted from the tyre treads with the secondary crime
scene—where the body parts were discovered—to establish a connection. The mud
samples from the location where Neeraj's body was disposed of and the mud traces
matched as well.
In this case, forensic science not only secured conviction but also ensured that gruesome
human rights violations like dismemberment and concealment of a body were fully
exposed. The case illustrates the role of forensics in upholding both the right to truth and
the right of families to closure.
Case Study Six
Nirbhaya case: Delhi gang rape – 2013.
Forensic odontology, a relatively new science in India is already showing to be quite
useful in both criminal and civil matters. Nirbhaya, a twenty-three-year-old woman, was
raped many times aboard a private bus in Delhi, India on December 16, 2012. She had
a male companion with her. She died on December 29, 2012, because of the terrible
injuries she sustained in the violent attack. In a day, the suspects were located. Six
males, one of whom was a minor, were convicted guilty. The accused's dental models
were compared to the several bite marks found on the victim's corpse. Dr. Ashit B.
Acharya (secretary of the Indian Association of Forensic Odontology and an associate
professor at SDM College of Dental Sciences and Hospital in Dharwad) used computer
software to evaluate the bite marks and hypothesized that two of the bite marks belonged
to the same suspect. On May 6, 2013, the court approved the evidence that was
JANUS.NET, e-journal of International Relations
e-ISSN: 1647-7251
VOL. 16, Nº. 2
November 2025-April 2026, pp. 429-444
Role of Forensic Science in Protecting Human Rights and Ensuring Justice
Aparna Srivastava, Shivani Tomar
441
submitted. During his trial, one of the defendants committed suicide; the young person
receiving the penalty was imprisoned for three years. The death penalty was applicable
to the other four adults.
The Nirbhaya case is a turning point where forensic odontology and DNA evidence upheld
the rights of a victim against systemic violence. By providing irrefutable evidence,
forensic science became a voice for the silenced, advancing women’s rights and
strengthening public confidence in justice.
Forensic Science in Addressing Human Rights Violations
While much of the discussion has centered on gruesome crimes, it is equally important
to examine how forensic science addresses gross human rights violations. Globally,
forensic teams have been central in uncovering mass graves, documenting torture, and
identifying victims of enforced disappearances. In Argentina, forensic anthropologists
helped families of the desaparecidos trace missing persons and prosecute state
perpetrators. In Rwanda and the former Yugoslavia, forensic experts under the ICTR and
ICTY meticulously documented genocide and crimes against humanity, ensuring
accountability before international tribunals.
In India, too, forensic science has been significant in investigating custodial deaths,
extrajudicial encounters, and riot-related mass violence. Reports by the National Human
Rights Commission (2020) stress that proper forensic examination prevents impunity in
such cases by ensuring that deaths in custody or disappearances are investigated with
scientific rigour rather than dismissed. By focusing on impartial evidence, forensic
science curtails abuse of power and strengthens the constitutional mandate of protecting
fundamental rights.
Therefore, forensic science must be viewed not merely as a criminal investigative tool
but as a safeguard against state and non-state violations of human dignity. It embodies
the principle that justice requires truth, and truth can only be established when science
replaces speculation and coercion.
Conclusion & Recommendations
The human brain is a repository of knowledge that includes every bit of information
regarding crimes as well as good and bad things that people have done. As a result, if
we have access to this data, we can prove their culpability and the role they played in a
certain conduct. Thus, the forensic science can be utilized as an instrument to established
Mens Rea and Actus Rea of the accused. Mens rea means to have "a guilty mind." The
rule's justification is that it is unfair for society to penalise people who damage others
without intent. Actus reus literally means "guilty act," and generally refers to an overt
act in furtherance of a crime. It can also save money, time, strength as well as, it can
protect human rights by avoiding long, harsh, inhuman methods of proving guilt.
By implementing forensic procedures and techniques, the ability of law enforcement to
solve crimes has greatly grown in the modern era. These days, a crime can frequently
be solved with a careful examination of the crime scene and forensic evidence. Forensic
scientists' work is crucial not just for criminal investigations and prosecutions but also
JANUS.NET, e-journal of International Relations
e-ISSN: 1647-7251
VOL. 16, Nº. 2
November 2025-April 2026, pp. 429-444
Role of Forensic Science in Protecting Human Rights and Ensuring Justice
Aparna Srivastava, Shivani Tomar
442
for civil disputes, major natural and man-made disasters, and the investigation of
international crimes. The basis for the analysis of forensic evidence is a system that
places a premium on collaboration, state-of-the art investigative skills and instruments
(such as GPS positioning, cell phone tracking, video image analysis, artificial intelligence,
and data mining), and the ability to appropriately process a crime scene by locating,
obtaining, and conserving all relevant physical evidence.
Establishing a link between forensics, AI, and high-tech crime Inter-disciplinary
intelligent forensics utilises technical advancements and employs resources in a more
intelligent approach to resolve or assist in an investigation. Computers have immediate,
significant, and lasting social and ethical repercussions. The outcomes of the
development of artificial intelligence, multimedia, and robotics brought about the biggest
changes in daily life. However, it's equally crucial to comprehend all the potential risk
factors like privacy invasion and the challenges of maintaining security information.
The rising backlog in forensic labs, which causes trial court cases to swell and convicts
awaiting trial to sulk in cells. Recommendations by National Human Rights Commission
of India in the webinar on forensic science conducted on 11
th
August 2020 are worth
mentioning here -
− It is necessary to establish consistency under a Standard Operating Procedure for
performing forensic examinations;
− To fill all open positions in forensic science laboratories and to equip them with the
necessary resources and facilities.
− Introduce forensic law studies as a separate course curriculum in integrated BSc
(Forensic) LLB; Introduce forensic study and training in MBBS courses.
− Increase the number of forensic labs in proportion to the number of cases to be
examined to prevent delays in the administration of justice;
− Create the position of District Medico-Legal Expert; professionalize post-mortem
photography and videography; Make post-mortem a crucial activity for medical
professionals; advise doctors properly regarding medico-legal procedures;
− To ensure the protection of women, it would be important to boost the collection of
digital forensic evidence. Mortuary setup needs to be improved with the right
equipment and environment to enable conduct of post-mortem.
− To facilitate forensic investigation of such cases, sexual assault kits need to be made
available to all forensic labs.
− Coordination between investigators and prosecutors is crucial when using results
from these systems. The two agencies might work together to organise the arrest
and legal action. Early collaboration on these situations has increased both agencies'
efficacy. Due to the increasing reliance on forensic evidence and the dynamic way
that crime patterns are changing because of the rise in cybercrime, it is urgently
necessary to fill open positions in forensic laboratories to reduce backlog and provide
for training. The judiciary and investigating agencies must be aware of the general
procedures and principles followed in forensics when gathering and examining the
physical evidence from the scene of the incident. Forensic Examination is very
JANUS.NET, e-journal of International Relations
e-ISSN: 1647-7251
VOL. 16, Nº. 2
November 2025-April 2026, pp. 429-444
Role of Forensic Science in Protecting Human Rights and Ensuring Justice
Aparna Srivastava, Shivani Tomar
443
important evidence in the criminal justice system for successful administration of
justice. Additionally, there is a need to raise awareness among the media and public
about the need to avoid disclosing private information or methods that can obstruct
an investigation or legal proceedings.
In conclusion, forensic science serves as a bridge between criminal justice and human
rights protection. It prevents miscarriages of justice, ensures that the guilty are punished
while the innocent are protected, and strengthens accountability for both individual and
state perpetrated crimes. Expanding forensic capacities, integrating rights-based training
for investigators, and fostering international collaboration will ensure that science
continues to serve justice while safeguarding fundamental rights. Thus, the role of
forensic science is not only technical but profoundly ethical, as it protects the very
foundation of human dignity and justice.
References
Farrington, D. P., MacKenzie, D. L., Sherman, L. W., & Welsh, B. C. (Eds.). (2006).
Evidence-based crime prevention. Routledge. taylorfrancis.com+1routledge.com+1
Ferrándiz, F. (2013). Exhuming the defeated: Civil War mass graves in 21st-century
Spain. American Ethnologist, 40(1), 38–54.
Fisher, B. A. J., Tilstone, W. J., & Woytowicz, C. (2009). Introduction to criminalistics:
The foundation of forensic science. Academic Press. books.google.com
Himachal Pradesh Case Studes, Courtesy Shri Bimal Gupta, Director General Police,
Himachal Pradesh, India
Hollien, H. F. (2002). Forensic voice identification. Academic Press.
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.fsir.2021.100192
Irons, A., & Lallie, H. S. (2014). Digital forensics to intelligent forensics. Future Internet,
6(3), 584– 596. https://doi.org/10.3390/fi6030584
Kathane, P., Singh, A., Gaur, J. R., & Krishan, K. (2021, July). The development, status,
and future of forensics in India. Forensic Science International: Reports, 3, 100192.
Lee, H. C., & Pagliaro, E. M. (2013). Forensic evidence and crime scene investigation.
Journal of Forensic Investigation, 1(1), 1–5. https://www.avensonline.org/wp-
content/uploads/JFI-2330-0396010004.pdfavensonline.org+1paper.researchbib.com+1
National Human Rights Commission of India. (2020). Annual Report on Human Rights
and Forensic Evidence. NHRC Publications.
National Institute of Justice. (2022). Conference proceedings: 2022 National Institute of
Justice forensic science research and development symposium (NCJ No. 304822). U.S.
Department of Justice. https://nij.ojp.gov/library/publications/conference-proceedings-
2022-national-institute-justiceforensicsciencenij.ojp.gov
OHCHR. (2016). Manual on the effective prevention and investigation of extralegal,
arbitrary and summary executions. United Nations.
JANUS.NET, e-journal of International Relations
e-ISSN: 1647-7251
VOL. 16, Nº. 2
November 2025-April 2026, pp. 429-444
Role of Forensic Science in Protecting Human Rights and Ensuring Justice
Aparna Srivastava, Shivani Tomar
444
Plourd, C. I. (2010). The law and forensic identification. In P. G. Stimson & D. J. Curtis
(Eds.), Forensic dentistry(2nd ed., pp. 167–182). CRC Press.
Rudin, N., & Inman, K. (2001). An introduction to forensic DNA analysis (2nd ed.). CRC
Press.
UN Working Group on Enforced or Involuntary Disappearances. (2020). Report on the
best forensic practices for addressing enforced disappearances. United Nations.
Wagner, S. E. (2019). What remains: Everyday encounters with the socialist past in
Germany. Stanford University Press.
OBSERVARE
Universidade Autónoma de Lisboa
e-ISSN: 1647-7251
VOL. 16, Nº. 2
November 2025-April 2026
445
SAFE BUT SEEN? EVALUATING THE PROMISE AND PERILS OF WITNESS
PROTECTION IN INDIA AND THE USA
ANEELA FATIMA
afatima@jgu.edu.in
Assistant Professor, Programme Head BA Legal Studies at Jindal Global Law School,
O.P. Jindal Global University (India), ORCID: 0000-0003-1417-4880
MANYA PUNDHIR
mpundhir@jgu.edu.in
Assistant Professor, Programme Head BBA LLB (H) & B.Com LLB (H)
Jindal Global Law School, O.P. Jindal Global University (India), ORCID: 0009-0009-2703-6736
Abstract
In the due course of justice, witnesses tend to face hardships such as mental agony caused
by prolonged judicial proceedings, inadequate allowances with delayed payments and most
importantly the lack of security given via provisions to witnesses while they face the costs of
life-threatening risks for assisting the judiciary in attaining justice. United States has been the
most successful while carrying out witness protection, this paper will discuss the need for
India to tweak its witness protection schemes by using the US model as a base. The role of
witnesses is to provide evidence from the learnings that they possess in relation to an offence,
this information is used from the early stage of investigation to ascertaining a judgment. The
formerly known Indian Evidence Act 1872 now referred to as the Bhartiya Sakshya Adhiniyam
2023, although provides certain rights to witnesses, has not laid down the privileges and
protection that need to be given to witnesses explicitly.
Keywords
Witness Protection scheme, India, USA, Article 21, Indian Constitution, Bhartiya Sakshya
Adhiniyam, Bharatiya Nagarik Suraksha Sanhita, WITSEC.
Resumo
No devido curso da justiça, as testemunhas tendem a enfrentar dificuldades, tais como agonia
mental causada por processos judiciais prolongados, subsídios inadequados com pagamentos
atrasados e, mais importante ainda, a falta de segurança por via das provisões às
testemunhas enquanto enfrentam os custos dos riscos que ameaçam a sua vida por ajudarem
o poder judicial a alcançar a justiça. Os Estados Unidos têm sido os mais bem-sucedidos na
implementação da proteção de testemunhas. Este artigo discutirá a necessidade de a Índia
ajustar os seus esquemas de proteção de testemunhas, usando o modelo dos EUA como base.
O papel das testemunhas é fornecer provas a partir do conhecimento que possuem em relação
a um crime. Essas informações são utilizadas desde a fase inicial da investigação até à
determinação de um julgamento. A antiga Lei de Provas da Índia de 1872, agora conhecida
como Bhartiya Sakshya Adhiniyam 2023, embora conceda certos direitos às testemunhas,
não estabelece explicitamente os privilégios e a proteção que devem ser concedidos às
testemunhas.
JANUS.NET, e-journal of International Relations
e-ISSN: 1647-7251
VOL. 16, Nº. 2
November 2025-April 2026, pp. 445-460
Safe but seen? Evaluating the Promise and Perils of Witness Protection in India and the USA
Aneela Fatima, Manya Pundhir
446
Palavras-chave
Programa de Proteção a Testemunhas, Índia, EUA, Artigo 21, Constituição Indiana, Bhartiya
Sakshya Adhiniyam, Bharatiya Nagarik Suraksha Sanhita, WITSEC.
How to cite this article
Fatima, Aneela & Pundhir, Manya (2025). Safe but seen? Evaluating the Promise and Perils of
Witness Protection in India and the USA. Janus.net, e-journal of international relations. VOL. 16,
Nº. 2, November 2025-April 2026, pp. 445-460. DOI https://doi.org/10.26619/1647-7251.16.2.24
Article submitted on 01st September 2024 and accepted for publication on 05th
September 2025.
JANUS.NET, e-journal of International Relations
e-ISSN: 1647-7251
VOL. 16, Nº. 2
November 2025-April 2026, pp. 445-460
Safe but seen? Evaluating the Promise and Perils of Witness Protection in India and the USA
Aneela Fatima, Manya Pundhir
447
SAFE BUT SEEN? EVALUATING THE PROMISE AND PERILS OF
WITNESS PROTECTION IN INDIA AND THE USA
ANEELA FATIMA
MANYA PUNDHIR
Addressing the Challenges of Witness Protection in India: A Comparative
Study with the United States
“In search of truth, he plays that sacred role of the sun, which eliminates the
darkness of ignorance and illuminates the face of justice, encircled by devils
of humanity and compassion” (Abhyankar & Abhyankar, 2018).
According to Jeremy Bentham, “Witnesses are the eyes and ears of justice”. This
information they possess is crucial from the stage of investigation to the time a
judgement is ascertained. Witness protection has been emphasised in plethora of
judgements wherein the need for an environment conducive to a fair trial was demanded,
which included the protection of witnesses (Gurbachan Singh v. State of Bombay, 1952);
statutes such as the Bhartiya Sakshya Adhiniyam, 2023 (BSA), previously known as the
Indian Evidence Act, 1872, and the Bharatiya Nagarik Suraksha Sanhita (BNSS),
previously known as the Code of Criminal Procedure, 1973 (CrPC), have only attempted
at defining them indirectly by asserting their roles. For instance, S.180 BNSS states that
a police officer can examine an individual who is “acquainted with the facts and
circumstances of the case” whereas Chapter IX and Chapter X of the BSA provides for
the conditions that need to be complied with to check the competency of witnesses and
their mode of examination. Even though, the term “witness” has not explicitly been
defined in any Indian legislative text, it is a well-known fact that a witness is extremely
crucial to a proceeding. This was reiterated in the case of Sarwan Singh v. State of
Punjab, 1957, wherein Justice Wadhwa emphasised the importance of a witness and
stated that “a criminal case is built on the edifice of evidence, evidence that is admissible
in law. For that witnesses are required whether it is direct evidence or circumstantial
evidence”. Further, recognising the issues faced by witnesses, the court pointed towards
the dire need of a witness protection legislation and called upon to discourage obtaining
adjournments in cases where witness is present and accused is absent (State of U.P. v.
Shambhu Nath Singh, 2001). The court suggested that threatening witnesses should be
JANUS.NET, e-journal of International Relations
e-ISSN: 1647-7251
VOL. 16, Nº. 2
November 2025-April 2026, pp. 445-460
Safe but seen? Evaluating the Promise and Perils of Witness Protection in India and the USA
Aneela Fatima, Manya Pundhir
448
a ground for the cancellation of bail and maintaining anonymity for rape victims and
carved out an exception for terrorism witnesses wherein right of accused was subejcted
to certain exceptions The courts, realising the iminent threats faced by witnesses, allowed
re-trial due to such apprehension. (Ram Govind Upadhyay v. Sudarshan Singh, 2002;
Delhi Domestic Working Women’s Forum v. Union of India, 1995; People’s Union of Civil
Liberties v. Union of India, 2003)
This paper is strictly based on a qualitative methodological framework, derived from
existing legislation and secondary research. The authors’ research approach is deductive
with a combination of interpretivism and critical philosophy. This approach intends to
determine the factors acting as limitations for witness protection, the improvements
necessary to efficiently protect the rights of witnesses in India, and the effect on future
generations. The United States has been the most successful while carrying out witness
protection. Hence, the authors seek to examine whether there is a requirement for India
to modify their witness protection programmes and use the US model as a foundation.
Thus, with this methodological schema, the paper centres upon the dilemma between
the efficacy of witness protection through the existing laws, the need for the formation
of stronger legislation to optimally tackle the legal issues arising out of coercion, threat,
bribery, and the need to assess the effects of witness protection on the development of
children. Additionally, a comparison of India with the US model of witness protection
aptly exemplifies this dilemma, wherein they represent two very diverse models of
protecting witnesses within their territories. As to the research limitations, firstly there
exists a lack of access to confidential government records of the respective nations.
Secondly, the inability to conduct quantitative data via interviews and other forms of data
collection. Lastly, the absence of enough R&D carried out within India.
Finally, this paper contributes to the existing literature in a twofold manner; first it paves
the path for countries to lean towards refining their witness protection laws, which in turn
can not only provide a superior method of protection but also encourage witnesses to
come forth, to meet the ends of justice. Second, it showcases how the justice system
can stand triumphant in the battle against the exploitation and manipulation of witnesses
along with the wellbeing of the children of witnesses admitted in the programme.
Witness Protection in India: A Legal Overview
Why Shielding Witnesses Matters: Why Witness Protection Is Crucial for
India’s Legal System
Protection of witnesses is largely two-pronged: safeguarding against harm to the body
or property of a witness or their family, and ensuring anonymity. The current Indian
statutes identify the role of witnesses in a trial but do not provide positive rights and
protection from the hardships witnesses tend to face during trials like mental agony due
to prolonged judicial proceedings, delay in providing adequate allowances, and most
importantly the lack of security. Security concerns arise due to threats or bribery,
witnesses from lower income groups feel threatened or are coerced to wrongfully testify
especially in cases wherein powerful or influential parties are involved. These factors lead
to witnesses often turning hostile or wrongfully testifying. “One of the main reasons for
witnesses to turn hostile is that they are not accorded appropriate protection by the
JANUS.NET, e-journal of International Relations
e-ISSN: 1647-7251
VOL. 16, Nº. 2
November 2025-April 2026, pp. 445-460
Safe but seen? Evaluating the Promise and Perils of Witness Protection in India and the USA
Aneela Fatima, Manya Pundhir
449
State. It is a harsh reality, particularly, in those cases where the accused
persons/criminals are tried for heinous offences, or where the accused persons are
influential persons or in a dominating position that they make attempts to terrorize or
intimidate the witnesses because of which these witnesses either avoid coming to courts
or refrain from deposing truthfully. This unfortunate situation prevails because of the
reason that the State has not undertaken any protective measure to ensure the safety
of these witnesses, commonly known as ‘witness protection’’ (Mahender Chawla v. Union
of India, 2018; 2019). In the case of Mahender Chawla, the bench also recognises the
loss of time when witnesses are made to appear years after the incident has occurred as
it adversely hampers their ability to recall necessary details at the time of actual crime
and they are not suitably remunerated for the loss of time and the expenditure.
Over the years courts have observed the reasons behind witnesses turning hostile which
may be monetary, deployment of muscle or political power and other forms of threat and
intimidation (Ramesh & Ors. v. State of Haryana, 2017). There have been cases where
witness protection has proved to be a moot matter and court proceedings have thereby
turned futile, which brought out severe defects in the procedure of the Indian police and
judiciary (Manu Sharma v. State (NCT of Delhi), 2010). We have seen situations where
witnesses have had to take matters in their own hands as in the case of Bilkis Bano, a
key witness wrote a letter to the incumbent CJI on account of intimidation and threat to
life. The protection was granted and the proceedings were relocated from one city to
another to ensure the protection and safety of the witnesses. In India, the standard
practice of witness protection is typically granted only upon the witness's request, rather
than being provided by the state based on the severity of the case. Furthermore, the
level of protection offered is discretionary and not assured, as witnesses are generally
required to justify the necessity of such protection.
Unfortunately, this issue will remain until stronger protection is enforced as witnesses
would otherwise avoid any grave circumstances against themselves or their families.
Understanding the plight of witnesses and the unfortunate fact that ensuring ‘total safety’
of a witness not to mention the need to protect witnesses from gaining media attention.
These difficulties faced by witnesses have been highlighted in the 4
th
Report of the
National Police Commission and the Malimath Committee acknowledges the need for
witness protection laws. Courts, however, have developed practices of somewhat relying
upon hostile witnesses as well so that the entire proceedings do not go barren. Apex
court has held that evidence of a hostile witness is not totally rejected, rather can be
scrutinised and the part which is consistent with the case of either side may be accepted
(State of U.P. v. Ramesh Prasad Misra, 1996). Additionally, it is stated that if court finds
that credit of a witness is not completely shaken, one may after considering the evidence
of the witness as whole, with due caution, accept the creditworthy part in line with
evidence already on record (K. Anbazhagan v. Supt. of Police, 2004).
Justice J.M. Panchal eloquently highlighted, “As a protector of its citizens State has to
ensure that during a trial in Court the witness could safely depose truth without any fear
of being haunted by those against whom he has deposed.” The right to a fair and speedy
trial is a salient requirement imbedded in Article 21 of our Constitution. Denial of a fair
trial may have adverse effects on the victim, society and the accused. A situation where
a witness feels threatened may lead to incorrect testimony and gravely affect the
fundamental right to a fair trial.
JANUS.NET, e-journal of International Relations
e-ISSN: 1647-7251
VOL. 16, Nº. 2
November 2025-April 2026, pp. 445-460
Safe but seen? Evaluating the Promise and Perils of Witness Protection in India and the USA
Aneela Fatima, Manya Pundhir
450
Due to abovementioned reasons, trials get further prolonged by reluctant witnesses,
making it imperative for legislation to introduce specific guidelines for witness
examination and protection.
Guiding the Way: Law Commission Reports and the Path Toward
Effective Witness Protection
Over the years there have been several attempts through Law Commission reports and
reports on the Reformation of Criminal Law Justice, to recognise and develop witness
protection. The first initiative was taken during the 14
th
Law Commission report
highlighting the ‘inadequate arrangements for witnesses in the Courthouse’ pointing to
situations where witnesses were made to wait for long periods due to the lack of
infrastructure forcing them to wait under trees or the witness shed which is somewhat a
barn. Moreover, witnesses were not compensated for travel, meals, or other expenses.
Although the scope of examining the witness' position was limited, the Commission
recognised these problems and recommended that they be humanely resolved.
The 14th Law Commission Report acknowledges that witnesses were not treated
appropriately, and the 42nd Report advocated an increase in witness protection from
threats. The Report proposed to add certain sections in the IPC, which in fact was
achieved by introducing S.229A which provides that any individual who threatens or tries
to influence the witness while producing evidence before any public authority shall be
fined. Furthermore, the 154th Law Commission Report reaffirmed the issue of witness ill-
treatment highlighting it as the primary cause for witnesses' unwillingness to appear in
court. Furthermore, the struggle of the witness in confronting and testifying against
perpetrators who have committed serious crimes was addressed.
The 172
nd
Law Commission Report worked towards the concealment of a minor’s witness
identity by preventing them from giving oral evidence. However, the Commission
stipulated that in cases involving sexual assault, no witnesses, minor or major, would be
obliged to provide oral testimony, but their identity would be concealed to protect them
from any threats from the accused. The 178
th
Report deals with hostile witnesses, noting
that in circumstances involving strong and wealthy persons or the mafia, witnesses
frequently turn hostile and refrain from testifying to protect themselves and their
families. The Commission suggested the insertion of S. 184 BNSS, as per which, in cases
involving the imprisonment of more than 10 years, the witness could record their
statement in the presence of magistrates. The same was even mentioned in the Criminal
Law Bill, 2003. Additionally, they suggested that the police officers should take
precautionary measures before the trial commenced, in order to avoid any fabrication.
However, the Commission much like the legislation failed to address the issue of physical
safety of witnesses. The Justice Malimath Commission, underlined the necessity for a
comprehensive witness protection plan in light of the rise in incidences of threats and
attacks on witnesses and their family members during criminal trials
Lastly, the 198
th
Report discusses issues related to ‘Witness Anonymity’ and ‘Witness
Protection’. It was stated that in instances involving terrorism and sexual offences,
victims and witnesses are in a vulnerable position and therefore put in risk; hence, the
necessity for a witness protection system comparable to those of other Nations; such as
JANUS.NET, e-journal of International Relations
e-ISSN: 1647-7251
VOL. 16, Nº. 2
November 2025-April 2026, pp. 445-460
Safe but seen? Evaluating the Promise and Perils of Witness Protection in India and the USA
Aneela Fatima, Manya Pundhir
451
USA, Germany and China, was urged. They even proposed ways to protect the witness
post-trial. This Law Commission study served as the cornerstone for the Witness
Protection Scheme 2018.
Setting the Standard: Influential Precedents in Witness Protection
Despite the absence of a particular scheme set up for the protection of witnesses or a
specific provision in any of the statutes, Courts have attempted to look after their
interests and considered protecting them in a multiplicity of judgements (Naresh Shridar
Mairajkar v. State of Maharashtra, 1966). The judgements have helped in safeguarding
witnesses and highlighted the responsibility of police to take due care of them in case of
threat. Failing to recognise the role of media today, there is no attempt to protect
witnesses from the fourth pillar of the Indian democracy (Bimal Kaur Khalsa v. Union of
India, 1988).
The court in Sakshi v. Union of India, 2004, expressed the mental trauma that a victim
or witness would undergo after he is made to confront an accused. The shock or fear
upon confrontation may make them reluctant or unable to give details and derail the
judicial process. Hence, the court stated the need for a separate screen; which serves
two purposes,; first, avoiding forcing the witness to encounter the accused saves them
from experiencing trauma and second, by supplementing the process of ensuring fair
justice for the victim and society as a whole. The court also issued guidelines concerning
the way evidence must be taken from a child witness and emphasised the protection of
a victim who has been prey to sexual abuse.
The importance and need for the Witness Protection scheme are evident from the judicial
precedents and mentions in Law reports. However, before the Witness Protection Scheme
2018 came into existence, the first guidelines regarding witness protection were laid
down in the Neelam Katara plea. Recognising dire need, the Ministry of Home Affairs
prepared the Witness Protection Scheme, 2018 which was endorsed by the apex court in
the case of Mahender Chawla v. UOI, (2019). The case has been a turning point for
witnesses as it strengthened their position in the judicial system by providing the
essential right of being protected.
The 2018 Blueprint: India’s Attempt to Safeguard Its Witnesses
The main purpose of enabling the Witness Protection Scheme was ensuring a fair trial
through witness protection by giving them safety for coming forward to help authorities.
In this scheme, a witness would be provided with different measures depending on their
vulnerability and the threat they face. Ordinarily, witnesses would be provided with basic
services such as police assistance to protect them from any kind of threat and there are
additional safeguards in situations involving heinous crimes or high-end criminals They
include a new identity and residence elsewhere. To be precise, in situations such as these,
the Police Authority would be required to compile a Threat Analysis Report, which
analyses the gravity of the crime and the threat to the person's life, protection, and
several other elements such as the intent and extent of the accused issuing the threat.
JANUS.NET, e-journal of International Relations
e-ISSN: 1647-7251
VOL. 16, Nº. 2
November 2025-April 2026, pp. 445-460
Safe but seen? Evaluating the Promise and Perils of Witness Protection in India and the USA
Aneela Fatima, Manya Pundhir
452
Based on this report, the threat would be analysed and accordingly the witness would be
provided any of the aforesaid protection measures.
The witnesses are divided into 3 categories i.e., Category A-C based on threat and
accordingly, the protection measures are laid down in Part II (7) (a-o) of the Scheme.
Some of the measures include holding in-camera trials, allowing a support person to
remain present during the recording of statements and deposition, having separate
vulnerable witness courtrooms which have special features like one-way mirrors, live
video links, and modifying the audio of the witness’s voice to protect their identity,- inter
alia. Once the protection is offered, a competent authority will monitor the
implementation of the same with the help of monthly/quarterly reports.. Hence, the
system aims to enhance protection thereby encouraging them to come forward and
testify without fear.
Behind the Curtains: How India’s Witness Protection Scheme 2018
Works and Where It Stumbles
The Scheme attempts to draw principles from such programs in other nations and has
considered wide-ranging kinds of procedures to protect the witness from. It is a great
attempt at ensuring witness’ trust in the system. However, introduction does not
guarantee execution.
Police officers play a major role in the implementation of the scheme as the witness is
expected to reach out to them for protection in situations like assisting witnesses to
court, regular patrolling, and camera trials which require the police to invest a lot of their
time and resources the reality does not align with the letter of law. India is one of the
countries with the highest vacancies in the police department according to a report by
UNODC (United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime). Thereby making it clear that the
police would be overburdened whilst undertaking these measures. Additionally, there is
lack of sensitivity training for police to deal with witnesses. The Apex court acknowledged
vulnerable witnesses separately and ordered establishment of Vulnerable Witness
Deposition Complexes in all high courts (State of Maharashtra v. Bandu @ Daulat, 2018).
Another reason that can lead to the downfall of this scheme would be the lack of funding.
States are supposed to fund this program but States are not mandated to do so, rather
it is their prerogative to allocate funds as per the need. Furthermore, because the Threat
Analysis Report is made by a police officer, in cases involving powerful and influential
persons, an officer's report may be corrupted, resulting in a failure to accomplish the
ends of justice. The Scheme also fails to embrace the needs of vulnerable interests, their
mental or emotional health and issues such as cyber threats, well-being of children in
these programs. It has to be kept in mind that it is still not a legislation, i.e., there are
no punishment for not adhering to the Scheme.
United States of America
A revolutionary development of witness protection was the Organized Crime Control Act
of 1970 in the States amended by Comprehensive Crime Control Act, 1984. This led to
the creation of the federal witness protection programme also known as WITSEC. WITSEC
JANUS.NET, e-journal of International Relations
e-ISSN: 1647-7251
VOL. 16, Nº. 2
November 2025-April 2026, pp. 445-460
Safe but seen? Evaluating the Promise and Perils of Witness Protection in India and the USA
Aneela Fatima, Manya Pundhir
453
was formally created to protect witnesses or informants willing to testify against
perpetrators of organised crimes. While, witness protection, before was instituted under
KKK 1871 to protect witnesses testifying against the Ku Klux Klan along with which the
Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) occasionally created new identities to protect the
witnesses. Today witnesses go into witness protection in various criminal matters like
drug trafficking, murder and other organised crime.
The goal of WITSEC is to protect witnesses and their authorized family members whose
lives are in danger because of their cooperation with the US government. The programme
is managed by three main organizations; first, the United States Marshal service which
is responsible for non-incarcerated programme participants, second, the Federal Bureau
of Prisons (BOP) which maintains custody of incarcerated witnesses and third, the
Department of Justice Office of Enforcement Operations (OEO) which authorizes and
admits endangered witnesses into the programme. Based on the threats against a
witness and their reliability, the State or federal law enforcement agency submits a
request for their protection. A WITSEC application will then be submitted to the OEO
detailing the witness’ testimony along with the threats and risk. Depending on the
situation, the witness can be protected by local law enforcement or be moved to a safer
area. The witnesses are interviewed by investigators and psychologists in order to
determine the witness’ mental health at that point in time. Based on these findings, a
report is generated and submitted to the EOE and upon scrutiny, a recommendation is
made. The US Attorney General makes the final authority as to whether the witness is to
be admitted in WITSEC or not. If approved, the Marshals visit the witness and family
members to move them to WITSEC safe house.
This service is offered after the witness has complied with the eligibility criteria mentioned
as per 9-21.100 of the Department of Justice Manual. The Witness Protection programme
has been quite accessible to witnesses as per which they are offered complete relocation,
a new identity along with new legal documentation and basic expenses for their day-to-
day functioning. This kind of protection is even provided to their immediate family as per
which they are not permitted to disclose their new identity even to their extended family.
Cracks in the Armour: The Shortcomings of the US Witness Protection
Programme
While some witnesses have merely participated in programmes to get protection, others
are driven to do so to avoid association with previous criminal elements and unlawful
behaviour, which has resulted in the formation of a new, "non-criminal" lifestyle. Even
though most protected witnesses are convicted criminals, authorities are concerned
about the threat to third parties posed by witness protection operations, as well as the
threat to communities posed by protected witnesses who may cause harm in new,
relocated locations. Additionally, if there are erroneous expectations that crime would
end, communities may be jeopardised because witnesses may face lengthy jail
sentences, fuelling new cycles of violence. Concerns have also been raised about the
trustworthiness of witnesses, who occasionally fabricate evidence or falsely charge other
offenders.
JANUS.NET, e-journal of International Relations
e-ISSN: 1647-7251
VOL. 16, Nº. 2
November 2025-April 2026, pp. 445-460
Safe but seen? Evaluating the Promise and Perils of Witness Protection in India and the USA
Aneela Fatima, Manya Pundhir
454
Ripple Effects: How Today’s Protection Schemes Shape Tomorrow’s
Justice
Witness protection has resulted in many beneficial improvements; yet, while analysing
the impact of acceptance into the witness protection programme, one must consider the
individual's family members. This is especially because, many of the witnesses subjected
to the programme are parents with children who have not reached the age of majority.
The impact on the youth can be analysed through the perspective of the ecological system
and in this case children whose parents are admitted into the programme. Despite the
recent amendment brought to permit families to join the witness protection program,
some parents are unable to join due to employment commitments. Children whose
parents are forced to be separated suffer a significant psychological impact due to the
imbalance in their environment. Apart from their personal lives being disrupted, social
factors that promote the healthy development of a child's interpersonal abilities may also
suffer; children who have missed school time are victims of the system. Hence, the
services need to support and ensure the preservation of the family and social
environments for their betterment and social well-being.
Bronfenbrenner's ecological systems theory can be employed to analyse this research
due to its emphasis on the relevance of the environmental system on a child's
development. The environment, whether at the microsystem, mesosystem, ecosystem,
macrosystem, or chronosystem level, can be beneficial or harmful to a child's growth
(McKay). It is vital to emphasise that the witness protection programme, directly and
indirectly, marginalises children via isolation, social dislocation, movement limitations,
and a lack of interaction with family and social networks. Children, therefore, suffer due
to separation from their families and placed in foreign situations without any social
networks.
At the microsystem level, children are separated from their familiar surroundings,
including family and friends, and are expected to adjust to a foreign setting. The
mesosystem gets problematic after students enter the programme because they are
placed in a new educational setting with a different academic curriculum, new teachers,
and a different teaching system.
The ecosystem has an influence when parents abandon their employment in exchange
for their children's protection, and children are indirectly harmed since parents are no
longer able to give in the same way they were before being enrolled in the programme.
The ecological perspective was not only useful in the interpretation of the research results
but also provides a framework for the development of relevant and responsive
psychosocial interventions by social workers in addressing the needs and challenges
experienced by children whose parents are admitted to the programme.
Five key aspects must be taken into consideration, the first is the children's incapacity to
adjust to the programme; the second is the children's loneliness; the third is the
behavioural manifestations; the fourth is the fact that family contact is essential to assist
children to deal with separation, and lastly social work intervention is required to help
children cope.
Concerns have been raised about children's behavioural troubles due to of their
acceptance into the programme such as refusing to go to school, mood swings, and
JANUS.NET, e-journal of International Relations
e-ISSN: 1647-7251
VOL. 16, Nº. 2
November 2025-April 2026, pp. 445-460
Safe but seen? Evaluating the Promise and Perils of Witness Protection in India and the USA
Aneela Fatima, Manya Pundhir
455
instigating conflicts with a parent or sibling regularly. It was also seen that some of the
children's academic performance had declined since they were accepted into the
programme.
On one hand, Children, unlike adults, struggle to express their emotions and adjust to
unexpected settings, resulting in emotional outbursts. Moving causes relocation stress
syndrome, symptoms include feelings of insecurity, lack of trust, loneliness, anxiety, and
attachment issues. Children of witnesses frequently feel ignored, having no one to
connect with at home. On the other hand, parents are overburdened with activities such
as adjusting to their new surroundings and preparing to testify in court, earning an
income in new environments. Parents feel increased anxiety and stress, and as a
consequence, they pay less attention to their children's feelings, resulting in child-parent
conflict. A lack of social interaction and official family contact may lead witnesses to
violate the terms of the protection agreement by starting dangerous communications
with their families.
Children would benefit from social work therapies that help them deal with the challenges
of separation and social dislocation, live in the absence of parents, and better adjust to
the concealed environment.
Psychosocial assistance is required to assist children with social, emotional, intellectual,
and adaptation challenges, as well as homesickness, and to help them develop to their
full potential. Counselling, access to healthcare, developing parental skills, and the
formation of social support and networks are examples of such interventions.
Next Steps: Strengthening India’s Witness Protection for a Safer
Tomorrow
There are numerous practical issues when it comes to providing security or relocation in
developing nations, such as implementation costs and infrastructure. However, a more
pressing issue that is found across nations is revolving around corruption that occurs in
both, the administration and judiciary. Hence, admitting that witness protection is a State
duty is the first step towards enacting a witness protection Statute. Another solution is
for witness statements to be recorded by a judicial magistrate; however, this becomes
practically impossible due to the number of courts and understaffed judiciary.
Additionally, expert witnesses from various forensic disciplines are not protected in India
presently. Witnesses who are content with their employment and family are unlikely to
make major adjustments in their lives merely to testify in court, which is an evident
barrier to witness protection programmes in many jurisdictions. For a variety of reasons,
proper implementation of witness protection programmes will be challenging in countries
such as India, where cultural and societal commitments must be met.
To make matters worse, witnesses are subjected to death threats, coercion, harassment,
and other forms of abuse and as a result they tend to become hostile in such situations.
To avoid this, the Indian government's intervention is critical. The administration's
Witness Protection Scheme 2018, as well as the establishment of separate vulnerable
witness deposition centres, are significant and effective steps. However, aside from the
Delhi High Court guidelines, there is no other legal mention of vulnerable witnesses'
protection. The Scheme of 2018, was the first step in the right direction to bring witness
JANUS.NET, e-journal of International Relations
e-ISSN: 1647-7251
VOL. 16, Nº. 2
November 2025-April 2026, pp. 445-460
Safe but seen? Evaluating the Promise and Perils of Witness Protection in India and the USA
Aneela Fatima, Manya Pundhir
456
protection under the purview of the law and place the burden of implementation on the
State.
Although the scheme provides significant relief to witnesses regarding their safety during
the trial and, in exceptional cases, even after the trial is completed, it does have some
flaws, such as the fact that the criminal justice system is the responsibility of the state,
and some states may lack adequate resources to implement this scheme effectively. An
alternative solution could be assistance from the centre; however, the scheme remains
silent on the centre having the authority to contribute financially to the Witness Protection
Fund. Additionally, the operation of the Witness Protection Order has been limited to
three months; and the district head of police has been tasked with deciding the
contents and creating the Threat Analysis Report; as a result, in high-profile cases
involving politicians or powerful persons, the involvement of the district head creates
opportunities for corruption. The Programme is costly and administratively challenging.
New difficulties for the programme include the possible disclosure of witnesses online.
Modern technology has made it easier to track a person's whereabouts, and social
networking sites could be a detrimental source of personal information.
As a result, unanimous and separate legal provisions for protecting the rights of
vulnerable witnesses, including strict penalties for those who manipulate the witness, are
urgently needed.
Depending on the type of witness and the degree of cooperation, protection may be
provided before, during, and/or after the judicial proceeding. Effective witness protection
legislation should ideally involve all three relevant agencies i.e. the government, the
judiciary and the police who must demonstrate the political will to enact necessary
legislation, investigate legal issues, and execute it respectively.
An independent witness protection cell should be established, with the responsibility for
providing false identities, relocation, and follow-up. Additionally, throughout the criminal
justice process, witnesses should be treated fairly, with respect, and dignity, and should
be free of intimidation, harassment, or abuse. They must have access to status of the
proceedings guaranteed Right to a speedy trial, and also a prompt and final resolution of
the case following conviction and sentence, deadlines to promote speed in criminal
proceedings has been introduced in the BNSS (Bharatiya Nagarik Suraksha Sanhita
2023). The police force should be given the authority to take basic witness protection
measures such as surveillance, accompanying witnesses to work and court, assisting with
emergency relocation, and so on. The courts should take steps to limit public access to
the witness's identity, such as having a witness testify under a pseudonym. Alternative
solutions may include conducting a live online cross-examination of the witness outside
of court, during the trial before the judge, or having a witness testify at a location, out
of court, designated by the trial judge with the presence of the trial judge's clerk as well
as the opposing party's attorney.
Videoconferencing, teleconferencing, voice and face distortion, and other similar
techniques should be encouraged, as should the ability for witnesses to conceal their
address or occupation. The best form of witness protection is restoring public trust in the
legal system. Witnesses should be assured that those who wish to testify have the police
and an impartial system on their side.
JANUS.NET, e-journal of International Relations
e-ISSN: 1647-7251
VOL. 16, Nº. 2
November 2025-April 2026, pp. 445-460
Safe but seen? Evaluating the Promise and Perils of Witness Protection in India and the USA
Aneela Fatima, Manya Pundhir
457
It may also be noticed that youngsters who are left at home with grandparents or
extended relatives have difficulty adjusting to life without their parents. Witnesses are
also frustrated by the prospect of their children growing up without parental direction,
which has led to some witnesses fleeing the programme to be reunited with their children.
The disadvantage of leaving the programme is that witnesses must confront the
perpetrators of the crime on their own, without protection. Witnesses may also
experience increased worry as they sought to make sense of their lives in new and
unfamiliar places without social support.
The programme should explore encouraging witnesses to be allowed into the programme
alongside their families, particularly children, to avoid feelings of isolation and to
guarantee family preservation. This might be achieved by increasing awareness of the
programme and how it functions in communities so that witnesses who attend the
programme are aware of what to expect. Programme’s social workers might deliver
awareness programmes in partnership with social workers from the department of social
development and the police services.
Social workers should consider devising and delivering child-friendly intervention
programmes geared at meeting the needs of children accepted to the programme
alongside their parents. Such programmes should inter-alia, assist children in adjusting
to the programme and at school, as well as connect them to leisure activities in the
neighbourhood where their family is safe. This will allow the youngsters to make new
acquaintances and at the same time prevent boredom and loneliness.
Ensuring frequent family contact between witnesses and their children will lessen the
possibility of witnesses departing the programme to reconcile with the family. Children
who are left at home should also receive psychological therapy to help them manage and
better comprehend why their parents are absent. As part of family preservation, social
workers might provide several services.
Between Fear and Justice: Overcoming the Challenges of Witness
Protection in India
There is currently a long way to go for the developing nations to achieve a faultless
witness protection programme, however, the recent initiatives taken by India are a step
in the right direction. The obvious drawbacks are the lack of funding for effective witness
protection as that of the United States paired with the risk of being seen as a social pariah
as a result of leaving their family and social circles to begin a new life. This fear inevitably
could dishearten a potential witness from testifying. Additionally, as seen in the United
States many large-scale criminals have taken refuge in the witness protection
programme only to later continue a life of crime. The advantage of a mob member
attaining a clean slate in exchange for useful information seems to be a gamble which
may lead to an increase in crime rates due to the mobsters taking advantage of the
system. This is a struggle faced in the United States and will most definitely cause
damaging effects within developing nations, such as India, which have large populations
and an understaffed justice system. To allocate enough financing or find alternatives, the
Indian government must also prioritize the costs connected with witness protection. Low-
cost techniques must be evaluated. This will provide witness protection and much-needed
JANUS.NET, e-journal of International Relations
e-ISSN: 1647-7251
VOL. 16, Nº. 2
November 2025-April 2026, pp. 445-460
Safe but seen? Evaluating the Promise and Perils of Witness Protection in India and the USA
Aneela Fatima, Manya Pundhir
458
value in practice. Additionally, India must encourage witnesses by adopting and
maintaining witness anonymity and freeing the witness from all forms of intimidation.
Admission of parents into the programme disrupts family functioning, strains emotional
relationships, and has a detrimental influence on children's lives in general. However, it
is hoped that the availability of knowledge and understanding of how children experience
the admission of their parents into witness protection programmes, as presented in this
study, will enable social workers to devise interventions that will assist children in coping
with the trauma associated with their parents' admission into the programme and,
ultimately, restore, reunify, and preserve families.
This article aims to contribute to future research by enticing academicians and
lawmakers to assess the current barriers to witness testimony by enhancing the witness
protection programme by taking into account social and cultural factors and incorporating
affordable programmes that will give potential witnesses the security and safety required
to uphold the ends of justice. There is a need for a fair and impartial criminal investigation
and therefore witness protection is the first step forward.
References
Books
Atrey, A. (2020). Law of witness (1st ed.). Lawmann's.
https://www.kamalpublisher.com/BookDetails.aspx?id=130&ISBN=978-93-85114-02-1
Case Laws
Bimal Kaur Khalsa v. Union of India and Ors., AIR 1988 P H 95.
Mahendra Chawla v. Union of India, 2018 SC 2678.
Naresh Shridhar Mirajkar and Ors v. State of Maharashtra and Anr, 1966 SCR (3) 744.
Sakshi v. Union of India, (2004) 5 SCC 546.
Sarwan Singh v. State of Punjab, 1957 AIR 637.
Journals
Abdel-Monem, T. (2003). Foreign nationals in the United States witness security
program: A remedy for every wrong? American Criminal Law Review, 40(3), 1235–1269.
https://www.researchgate.net/publication/280660310_Foreign_Nationals_in_the_Unite
d_States_Witness_Security_Program_A_Remedy_for_Every_Wrong
Allum, F., & Fyfe, N. (2008). Developments in state witness protection programmes: The
Italian experience in international comparative perspective. Policing, 2(1), 92–102.
https://doi.org/10.1093/police/pan001
Compas, B. E., Connor-Smith, J. K., Saltzman, H., Thomsen, A. H., & Wadsworth, M. E.
(2001). Coping with stress during childhood and adolescence: Problems, progress, and
potential in theory and research. Psychological Bulletin, 127(1), 87–127.
https://doi.org/10.1037/0033-2909.127.1.87
JANUS.NET, e-journal of International Relations
e-ISSN: 1647-7251
VOL. 16, Nº. 2
November 2025-April 2026, pp. 445-460
Safe but seen? Evaluating the Promise and Perils of Witness Protection in India and the USA
Aneela Fatima, Manya Pundhir
459
Dedel, K. (2006). Problem-oriented guides for police problem-specific guides series No.
42: Witness intimidation. Center for Problem-Oriented Policing, The U.S. Department of
Justice.
https://popcenter.asu.edu/sites/g/files/litvpz3631/files/problems/PDFs/witness_intimid
ation.pdf
Demir, M. (2018). The perceived effect of a witness security program on willingness to
testify. International Criminal Justice Review, 28(1), 62–81.
https://doi.org/10.1177/1057567717721298
Fontes, P. V. (2020). Axel Honneth’s normative proposal for the renewal of human rights.
JANUS.NET e-journal of International Relations, 11(1), May–October.
https://doi.org/10.26619/1647-7251.11.1.1
Fyfe, N. R., & McKay, H. (2000). Desperately seeking safety: Witnesses’ experiences of
intimidation, protection, and relocation. The British Journal of Criminology, 40(4), 675–
691. https://doi.org/10.1093/bjc/40.4.675
Fyfe, N. R., & Sheptycki, J. (2006). International trends in the facilitation of witness
cooperation in organized crime cases. Policing, 2(1), 1–20.
https://doi.org/10.1177/1477370806065585
Hifajatali Sayyed. (2019). A comparative analysis of witness protection in India and
developed countries. Criminal Law & Justice, Jus Dicere.
https://www.researchgate.net/publication/341622557_Witness_Protection_A_Compara
tive_Analysis_of_Indian_and_Australian_Legislation
Lee, N. (1983). Witness involvement in the criminal justice system and intention to
cooperate in future prosecutions. Journal of Criminal Justice, 11(2), 143–152.
https://doi.org/10.1016/0047-2352(83)90049-1
On human rights – particularly crimes against humanity. (2018). JANUS.NET e-journal
of International Relations, 9(1), May–October. https://doi.org/10.26619/1647-
7251.9.1.5
Rahangdale, P. (2020). Witness protection: A fundamental need in the criminal justice
system. Purakala Journal, 31(28).
https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3606181
Legal Acts
Constitution of India. (n.d.). https://legislative.gov.in/constitution-of-india (Last visited
June 24, 2024)
The Code of Criminal Procedure, 1996. (n.d.).
https://legislative.gov.in/sites/default/files/A1974-02.pdf (Last visited June 24, 2024)
Witness Protection Program Act. (n.d.). https://laws-lois.justice.gc.ca/eng/acts/W-11.2/
(Last visited June 24, 2024)
Reports
Justice Malimath Committee Report. (2003). Reforms of the criminal justice system.
JANUS.NET, e-journal of International Relations
e-ISSN: 1647-7251
VOL. 16, Nº. 2
November 2025-April 2026, pp. 445-460
Safe but seen? Evaluating the Promise and Perils of Witness Protection in India and the USA
Aneela Fatima, Manya Pundhir
460
Law Commission of India. (n.d.). Consultation paper on witness protection.
https://cjp.org.in/wp-content/uploads/2017/11/law-comm-consultation-paper-on-
witness-identity-protection.pdf
The Law Commission of India. (1984). Indian Penal Code (Law Com No. 42).
The Law Commission of India. (1997). Reforms in judicial administration (Law Com No.
14).
The Law Commission of India. (1998). Recommendations for amending various
enactments, both civil and criminal (Law Com No. 178).
The Law Commission of India. (2002). Review of rape laws (Law Com No. 172).
The Law Commission of India. (2006). Witness identity protection and witness protection
programs (Law Com No. 198).
The Law Commission of India. (n.d.). Witness identity protection and witness protection
programme.
OBSERVARE
Universidade Autónoma de Lisboa
e-ISSN: 1647-7251
VOL. 16, N.º 2
novembro 2025–abril 2026
489
NOTAS E REFLEXÕES
“ORGULHOSAMENTE ACOMPANHADOS”: OLHAR PARA A AMÉRICA
LATINA COMO MÁRIO SOARES
ANDREA IMAGINÁRIO BINGRE
andreaimaginario@gmail.com
Frequenta o doutoramento em História na Universidade Autónoma de Lisboa. É licenciada em
Artes e Magister Scientiarum em Literatura comparada pela Universidade Central da
Venezuela, onde é professora associada (Venezuela). Nesta instituição exerceu também os
cargos de Coordenadora Académica e Coordenadora de Serviço Comunitário, e membro de
diversas comissões académicas. Investiga em História Cultural e nos Estudos Culturais.
Realiza atividade de extensão no âmbito musical, a través álbuns e eventos musicais que
exploram a interculturalidade luso-venezuelana e o vínculo entre música e poesia
portuguesas, motivo pelo qual a Associação de Luso-descendentes da Venezuela conferiu-lhe
a Medalha de Honra na divulgação da cultura portuguesa na Venezuela.
DÉBORA DUARTE
dsfduarte@gmail.com
Licenciada em Direito pela Universidade Nova de Lisboa e Mestre em Direito Internacional Público
e Europeu pela Universidade Católica do Porto. Foi oficial do Exército Português, onde
desempenhou funções como jurista, entre 2018 e 2023 (Portugal). Colaborou na implementação
de programas de formação profissional sobre temas de cooperação civil-militar, segurança e
acesso humanitário em diferentes organizações internacionais e não governamentais. Encontra-
se a frequentar o curso de mestrado em Relações Internacionais - Paz, Segurança e
Desenvolvimento da Faculdade de Economia da Universidade de Coimbra.
O Teatro Thalia, em Lisboa, recebeu, no dia 8 de abril de 2025, o Colóquio Mário Soares
e a América Latina: Passado, Presente, Futuro, inserido nas comemorações do centenário
deste político português. Por ter sido Presidente da República e Primeiro-Ministro de
Portugal, é natural o interesse em destacar o seu pensamento no país cuja democracia
ajudou a construir. Mas porquê voltar os olhos sobre a relação de Mário Soares com a
região latino-americana?
Há uma questão que obriga a refletir sobre o assunto: cresce perigosamente o
autoritarismo na América Latina, como cresce também no mundo. Considerando os elos
históricos, culturais e políticos daquela região com a Península Ibérica, convém revisitar
o papel que Mário Soares cumpriu em defesa da social-democracia latino-americana,
tomando como ponto de partida os debates gerados no calor do Colóquio.
O despertar da relação de Mário Soares com América Latina
Na Guerra Fria, que começou após a Segunda Guerra Mundial, o confronto entre
capitalismo e comunismo atingiu um alto grau de tensão. As ditaduras de direita,
herdadas da primeira metade do século XX, reforçaram as suas posições no mundo
JANUS.NET, e-journal of International Relations
e-ISSN: 1647-7251
VOL 16, Nº. 2
novembro 2025-abril 2026, pp. 461-496
“Orgulhosamente Acompanhados”: Olhar para a América Latina como Mário Soares
Andreia Imaginário Bingre, Débora Duarte
490
ocidental, em aparentes “contenções” anticomunistas: são os casos do Estado Novo, em
Portugal, desde 1933, e do franquismo, em Espanha, desde 1939.
Na América Latina, as ditaduras também alimentavam esse imaginário para se sustentar
no poder. O historiador Camero afirma que o medo ao comunismo potenciou a coligação
militarista de sectores sociais conservadores com sectores das Forças Armadas,
colocando entraves ao caminho da democracia até à década de 1980 (Camero, 2019, p.
39). Algumas dessas ditaduras ultrapassaram quarenta anos de vigência, outras
subsistiram por muito menos tempo. Mas, perto do final da década de 1970, todas elas
coincidiram na linha temporal: Nicarágua, Paraguai, Guatemala, Brasil, Haiti, Chile, El
Salvador, Perú, Uruguai, Honduras, Argentina e Bolívia. Não havia só autoritarismo de
direita: a Revolução cubana, alinhada com a antiga URSS, também perturbava a
democratização desde 1959. E, na Nicarágua, os opositores sandinistas davam sinais de
paulatina radicalização à ultraesquerda.
Na década de 1970, as democracias fortes da região seriam apenas as da Costa Rica
(desde 1949), Colômbia e Venezuela (desde 1958), e México — embora a sua
democracia, estabelecida em 1929, fosse questionada pela hegemonia do Partido
Revolucionário Institucional (PRI).
Neste enquadramento, são três os momentos e os perfis, por vezes paralelos e
complementares, desde os quais Mário Soares construiu uma relação com América
Latina:
1) como líder socialista português e opositor ao Estado Novo;
2) como parte da chefia da Internacional Socialista (IS), na promoção da social-
democracia;
3) como representante de Portugal em prol de relações de mútua conveniência.
Como líder socialista e opositor ao Estado Novo
Soares fez várias viagens à região, durante o seu exílio, nos tempos do Estado Novo. No
primeiro painel do Colóquio, intitulado Mário Soares e América Latina, Isabel Soares
aludiu a uma primeira viagem, em 1970, ao Brasil, Venezuela, Porto Rico, México e aos
Estados Unidos da América.
Segundo o investigador Joaquim Vieira, Soares nunca esclareceu a função política
daquele percurso, ainda que lhe tenha sido útil para entrar em contacto com
simpatizantes dos socialistas portugueses e dos republicanos espanhóis, exilados na
Venezuela, e com portugueses em Nova Iorque, agregados ao movimento Acção
Socialista Portuguesa (ASP) — partido antecessor do PS, fundado no exílio, em 1964 por
Soares, Francisco Ramos da Costa e Manuel Tito de Morais (Vieira, 2022, p. 277).
Mas existiu uma viagem anterior àquela. Vieira regista que, em 1964, Soares fez uma
visita incógnita a Havana, em companhia de José Fernandes Fafe. O convite do governo
cubano foi facilitado, em 1963, pelo encarregado de negócios em Portugal, Raúl Amado-
Blanco, tendo sido garantido o anonimato e o secretismo da deslocação (Vieira, 2022, p.
181). Após esta e outras visitas a países comunistas, Soares rejeitou esse sistema e
JANUS.NET, e-journal of International Relations
e-ISSN: 1647-7251
VOL 16, Nº. 2
novembro 2025-abril 2026, pp. 461-496
“Orgulhosamente Acompanhados”: Olhar para a América Latina como Mário Soares
Andreia Imaginário Bingre, Débora Duarte
491
entendeu, como nos lembrou Vítor Ramalho no Colóquio, que a oposição entre
comunismo e socialismo converter-se-ia numa oposição entre ditadura e democracia.
Embora estas viagens não contemplassem no seu horizonte a missão de influir na
América Latina, nem sequer formassem parte de um programa da ASP, tal como afirma
Vieira, nelas começaram a tecer-se as redes de apoio na luta em prol da social-
democracia em Portugal e na América Latina.
Como parte da chefia da Internacional Socialista (IS)
Segundo Valeska Hesse, a social-democracia apresentava-se, no quadro da Guerra Fria,
como alternativa ao capitalismo americano e ao comunismo soviético (2022). O problema
era que a influência da IS estava restrita à Europa. Com base no pensamento de Bernd
Rother, Hesse assinala que Willy Brandt, do Partido Social Democrata da Alemanha
(SPD), teve a visão de incorporar a América Latina na social-democracia e integrar os
partidos afins na IS. Existia mais do que uma razão:
➔ similitude das estruturas partidárias;
➔ urgência dos conflitos na região, especialmente na América Central;
➔ necessidade de “independência” da região relativamente aos EUA, mas sem conflito;
➔ descrédito dos EUA, após a guerra do Vietname e a crise do petróleo de 1973;
➔ descrédito da Rússia e da China, pela sua “benevolência” com as ditaduras militares
(Hesse, 2022).
Nessa altura, Mário Soares já começava, por vários motivos, a dar sinais de ser uma
figura idónea para concretizar a aproximação desejada por Brandt. Já tinha uma rede de
contatos desde 1970. Em 1972, a ASP entrou na IS. Soares foi convidado por Brandt a
formar parte do conselho da revista latino-americana Nueva Sociedad, fundada em 1972.
Finalmente, em 1976, o político português foi eleito para o seu primeiro mandato como
Primeiro-Ministro. Segundo afirmou Rother no Colóquio, isto garantia-lhe um peso
institucional favorável para chefiar a missão da IS, numa altura em que Espanha ainda
não consolidara a sua social-democracia.
Assim, Soares foi múltiplas vezes à América Latina naqueles anos enquanto vice-
presidente da IS, cargo que desempenhou desde 1976. Podemos referir dois exemplos
paradigmáticos: primeiro, a sua visita à Venezuela, com ocasião da Conferência da IS
em Caracas em 1976. A conferência foi presidida por Rómulo Betancourt, representante
do partido venezuelano Acción Democrática (AD), no contexto do governo de Carlos
Andrés Pérez. Esta conferência favoreceu a adesão de muitos partidos latino-americanos
no horizonte democratizador da IS e, para Betancourt, deu visibilidade a Mário Soares,
a Felipe González e a Pérez como líderes internacionais na defesa da social-democracia
(Straka, setembro de 2022). O segundo exemplo é a participação de Mário Soares como
representante da IS nas eleições da República Dominicana, em 1978, quando exercia
também o cargo de Primeiro-Ministro de Portugal. Nessas eleições triunfou o candidato
opositor Antonio Guzmán, apesar dos intentos de Balaguer por se manter no poder.
A presença de Soares teve uma grande influência nos acontecimentos.
JANUS.NET, e-journal of International Relations
e-ISSN: 1647-7251
VOL 16, Nº. 2
novembro 2025-abril 2026, pp. 461-496
“Orgulhosamente Acompanhados”: Olhar para a América Latina como Mário Soares
Andreia Imaginário Bingre, Débora Duarte
492
Como representante de Portugal
Quer como Primeiro-Ministro, quer como Presidente da República, Mário Soares
organizou ou respondeu a convites oficiais para se reunir com os mandatários latino-
americanos, e subscreveu diferentes acordos e programas, em matérias muito diversas,
mas com orientação democrática. Como Presidente da República influenciou
determinantemente a participação portuguesa nas cimeiras ibero-americanas, iniciadas
em 1991 (Vieira, 2022; Gomes, 2014). No Colóquio, Nancy Gomes apresentou Soares e
Felipe González como defensores da identidade linguística lusófona e hispânica, e da
cultura ibero-americana como espaço comum para a cooperação (Gomes, 2014).
Portugal e as Cimeiras Ibero-Americanas
Num discurso pronunciado na Cimeira Socialista de 1976 (Soares, 1976), celebrada na
Póvoa do Varzim, Mário Soares afirmou que é «por vias diferentes e face a condições
nacionais muito diversas» que os objectivos comuns da liberdade, fraternidade e da paz
podem ser alcançados. No entanto, reiterou a sua convicção de que Portugal é um «país
no cruzamento de todos os povos do Mundo».
Portugal buscava, por esta altura, um novo modo de entender a sua identidade. Era
urgente ganhar consciência dos perigos da política externa isolacionista e exclusivamente
atlântica do Estado Novo, «sendo necessário também uma integração europeia»
(Sebastião, 2010, p. 105). Soares rejeitou, contudo, um corte com a tradição atlântica,
propondo uma terceira via, de “nação euro-atlântica”, de ponte entre o Velho Continente
e o Novo Mundo.
Sonho aparentemente simples, não consegue impor-se sem mais aos traumas históricos
do povo e à relação atribulada com os vizinhos espanhóis. Encravado entre o mar e
Espanha, Portugal divide-se no fascínio pelas virtudes de D. Quixote e na mágoa pela
tirania dos Filipes (Ferreira, 2013, p.358). É por esta razão que, perante a convocatória
para a Iª Cimeira Ibero-Americana, em 1990, Portugal reage timidamente. «Era evidente
um certo receio quanto às pretensões da Espanha, e eram muitas as dúvidas, do ponto
de vista estratégico, quanto às vantagens acrescentadas para o país» (Gomes, 2014, p.
214). Motivado também pela participação do Brasil, Portugal abraça a iniciativa e faz-se
representar ao mais alto nível – o Presidente da República era, então, Mário Soares.
Unamuno explicava estas relações históricas como uma «unidade espiritual, uma alma
una num território atravessado por contradições» (Ferreira, 2013, p. 358). Com as
cimeiras, transforma-se a ideia de hispanidade, abrindo-se espaço a uma participação
solidária, marcada mais pelos laços de amizade do que pelos benefícios da cooperação
económica. Dizia Soares, em Guadalajara, que existe uma «solidariedade natural
resultante das raízes comuns, da proximidade das culturas e da identidade dos laços
entrecruzados pela história e a vizinhança geográfica. Portugal também é Ibero-América»
(Gomes, 2014, p. 215).
Na sua intervenção no Colóquio, Cristina Manzano, sublinhou a importância dos três
princípios criadores da Comunidade Ibero-Americana, que ainda hoje permanecem: a
horizontalidade, pela simetria das relações; a inclusão de todos na mesa das negociações
– sem com isso abdicar da defesa da Democracia e dos Direitos Humanos; e o consenso,
que não é sinônimo de unanimidade. Face ao momento histórico de polarização que
JANUS.NET, e-journal of International Relations
e-ISSN: 1647-7251
VOL 16, Nº. 2
novembro 2025-abril 2026, pp. 461-496
“Orgulhosamente Acompanhados”: Olhar para a América Latina como Mário Soares
Andreia Imaginário Bingre, Débora Duarte
493
vivemos, a materialização destes princípios, segundo Manzano, pode ser um processo
complicado; mas quando se consegue, a força política que tem também é muito
importante.
Aqui reside o espaço privilegiado de Portugal para exercer a sua vocação de ponte entre
dois mundos. Na esteira de Mário Soares, capaz de estabelecer relações interpessoais
que dão voz a todos, podem trazer-se os mecanismos de negociação da América Latina
até às instituições europeias. No entanto, apesar da sua participação de alto nível nas
Cimeiras Ibero-Americanas, bem como do cada vez maior contributo para o seu
Secretariado, as reticências sentidas inicialmente adiaram por anos a decisão de incluir
a Ibero-América nas prioridades da política externa nacional – talvez pelo receio de
sobreposição em relação ao espaço político da CPLP.
Em períodos de crise económica na Europa, perante a «dependência excessiva que a
economia portuguesa – incluindo as empresas – têm no mercado europeu, o mercado
ibero-americano passa a ser valorizado» (Gomes, 2014, p. 222). Raquel Patrício, na sua
intervenção no Colóquio, apontava no mesmo sentido: «a própria região da América
Latina surge como uma boa alternativa se quisermos pensar em soluções extra-Europa
para Portugal». Acrescentava ainda que «aquilo que é a especificidade de Portugal no
seio da União Europeia (…) é a ligação privilegiada que tem, não só com a África, mas
também com a América Latina por via do Brasil».
Esta não é, contudo, uma posição inovadora. Já o defendia Mário Soares, naquela sua
intervenção de 1976: «este contexto (…) obriga o Povo Português a uma reflexão
profunda relativamente à integração de Portugal com a Europa, preservando o seu
destino histórico de país europeu com especiais qualificações para apresentar-se como
“intermediário privilegiado” nas relações da Europa» com o mundo. Portugal possui, no
seu entender, uma vocação “terceiro-mundista”, que não se opõe à sua participação
plena na União Europeia – pelo contrário, beneficia-a (Soares, 1976).
Relações Europa – América Latina
«O viés eurocêntrico reside no modo como a compreensão do regionalismo (que, muitas
vezes, tem origem numa leitura particular da integração europeia) condiciona a
percepção de como este deve implementar-se noutros lugares do mundo» (Söderbaum,
2014, p.14). Ana Paula Zacarias, no Colóquio, apontava esta mesma visão como um dos
calcanhares de Aquiles na relação Europa-América Latina e Caribe: «nós [Europa], ao
olharmos para a CELAC, estamos à espera de ter do outro lado um interlocutor similar,
coisa que não acontece. A CELAC não é a UE. Nem o Mercosul é a UE. São entidades com
integrações diversas, (…) estruturalmente diferentes da UE».
Portugal encontra-se, aparentemente, face a um dilema. Em terra, a sua identificação
civilizacional com o contexto europeu. No mar, a sua ligação histórica, cultural e afectiva
com os países da América Latina. Se, aquando da sua adesão à CEE, em 1986, se
posicionou como porta aberta entre dois mundos, com a queda da URSS e o posterior
alargamento da UE para o leste Europeu, em 2004, assistiu a uma inversão de prioridades
que poderiam ter feito desmoronar o sonho de um novo universalismo.
Mas Portugal, cuja transição democrática foi foco de tensões durante a Guerra Fria,
oferece-nos «uma boa ilustração sobre os dilemas de um Estado pequeno, com
JANUS.NET, e-journal of International Relations
e-ISSN: 1647-7251
VOL 16, Nº. 2
novembro 2025-abril 2026, pp. 461-496
“Orgulhosamente Acompanhados”: Olhar para a América Latina como Mário Soares
Andreia Imaginário Bingre, Débora Duarte
494
capacidade de influência limitada, e como o nível doméstico e europeu interagem no
processo de tomada de decisão» (Neves, 2016, p. 266). Perante o alargamento da UE,
investiu em quatro dimensões:
1) apoio continuado às relações com os países de Leste;
2) estratégia de “preservação da solidariedade”, propondo uma redefinição dos
requisitos para apoio económico – em que continuasse a ser incluído;
3) posição favorável (e ambiciosa) quanto ao alargamento e
4) partilha da sua experiência de negociação e adesão, contribuindo para uma
diplomacia informal (Neves, 2016).
Este aparente paradoxo de intenções consiste na materialização daquilo que Mário Soares
já havia identificado, em 1976, como «vozes que procuram conciliar as duas orientações,
destacando a nossa pertença à Europa enquanto cultura e civilização, valorizando os
imperativos de ordem geopolítica e económica (...), para partir por um caminho realista
de projecção de Portugal aos países que costumamos considerar como parte do Terceiro
Mundo» (Soares, 1976). Dando voz e lugar a novas formas de estar, Portugal granjeou,
em 2004, simpatias e (pequenos, mas múltiplos) aliados continentais para as suas
iniciativas atlânticas. Estas parcerias diversificadas viabilizam o sucesso das propostas
Portuguesas (e Ibéricas) levadas a cabo durante as Presidências da UE. De facto, como
reparava Cátia Miriam Costa no Colóquio, «quem fizer um estudo sobre as relações da
União Europeia com a América Latina, percebe perfeitamente picos de atividade quando
Portugal ou Espanha têm a presidência».
Esta dinâmica de integração europeia com os olhos postos além-fronteiras é complexa e
requer capacidade de gerar equilíbrios. Mário Soares era um crítico da globalização sem
critérios e, por essa razão, no fim da sua vida já demonstrava algum cepticismo quanto
à evolução do Projecto Europeu. Andrés Malamud, na sua intervenção no Colóquio, foi
peremptório: «o mundo de Mário Soares já não existe». Importa, então, pensar os
desafios de hoje à luz das três dimensões que sempre nos propunha Mário Soares,
«democracia, desenvolvimento e descolonização».
Existe ainda muito caminho a percorrer para estreitar as relações entre a Europa e a
América Latina. No entanto, mantemos o optimismo de Mário Soares em 1976:
A Europa, hoje, é uma ideia em permanente evolução, dotada de uma
dinâmica capaz de transcender os particularismos nacionais e de se situar na
determinação e definição de aspirações comuns (…) de actuar em função de
uma solidariedade profundamente enraizada nos interesses comuns.
O futuro será propício?
Pairam sobre o mundo atual os fantasmas do século passado: um intenso combate entre
narrativas de direita e esquerda aquece o mundo das comunicações, e influi nos padrões
eleitorais em favor de candidatos autoritários e populistas, cada vez mais próximos ao
poder, quando não mesmo vencedores da corrida presidencial. A este problema, Carlos
Quenan, no Colóquio, somou a crise climática, a revolução tecnológica, a rivalidade EUA-
JANUS.NET, e-journal of International Relations
e-ISSN: 1647-7251
VOL 16, Nº. 2
novembro 2025-abril 2026, pp. 461-496
“Orgulhosamente Acompanhados”: Olhar para a América Latina como Mário Soares
Andreia Imaginário Bingre, Débora Duarte
495
China, a crise da globalização e a poli-crisis, o impacto de práticas empresariais como o
nearshore e o dilema manufatura vs. “mentefatura”.
Além do regime cubano, a Nicarágua e a Venezuela (país sul-americano que fora exemplo
de sucesso democrático) adotaram modelos autoritários de extrema-esquerda. Na
Argentina e em El Salvador, os governos são tendencialmente autoritários, e aproximam-
se da extrema-direita. Na Europa, as desigualdades socioeconómicas são cada vez mais
profundas e os movimentos autoritaristas ganham força e representação institucional,
aumentando fenómenos como a violência social e institucional contra os migrantes. Em
simultâneo, nos EUA, a democracia e o Estado de Direito encontram-se fragilizados. Este
enquadramento demonstra que a democracia e a liberdade não podem ser dadas por
garantidas, e que mantê-las requer atenção permanente, ações concretas e coerência
por parte das instituições.
Francisco Aldecoa Luzárraga sugeriu, no Colóquio, que o segundo mandato de Trump
poderia ser uma oportunidade para impulsionar a aproximação entre a Europa e a
América Latina, especialmente face às tensões sobre as questões migratórias nos EUA.
Mas nem todos se mostraram tão otimistas: Ramón Jáuregui afirmou que a América
Latina está fraturada e que, na região, a Europa tem perdido o seu peso económico em
comparação com a China.
Estes oradores concordavam, contudo, num ponto-chave: «a Europa que queremos é
fraterna com a América Latina. Constrói caminhos e constrói pontes», sublinhou Jáuregui.
Esta era a Europa com que sonhava Mário Soares, com quem ele tinha tanto a partilhar,
mas também a aprender.
Porque a democracia não é um valor particular, mas universal, torna-se urgente
encontrar, para o nosso tempo, carismas como o de Mário Soares que, modelo de
moderação política, foi um combatente contra qualquer forma de ditadura (González).
Só na reconciliação dos extremos se recupera o horizonte democrático e de liberdade.
Para tal, continua a fazer sentido caminhar “orgulhosamente acompanhados”, como dizia
Soares.
No Colóquio, mais do que recordar um político, puseram-se em comum sonhos para o
futuro, propostas de solução ou desafios partilhados para a Ibero-América. Nem sempre
visões concordantes, é certo, mas olhos nos olhos, à mesma mesa – ao estilo das relações
de amizade e solidariedade que tanto agradavam a Mário Soares.
«Numa iniciativa de centenário», concluiu Paulo Neves, «falámos do futuro. Mário Soares
estaria orgulhoso».
Referências
Colóquio (por ordem do programa):
Cordeiro, P., Soares, I., Figueroa, B., Ramalho, V. e Sepúlveda, B. (8 de abril de 2025):
Mário Soares e a América Latina [Painel 1]. Colóquio Mário Soares e a América Latina:
Passado, Presente, Futuro, Teatro Thalia, Lisboa.
JANUS.NET, e-journal of International Relations
e-ISSN: 1647-7251
VOL 16, Nº. 2
novembro 2025-abril 2026, pp. 461-496
“Orgulhosamente Acompanhados”: Olhar para a América Latina como Mário Soares
Andreia Imaginário Bingre, Débora Duarte
496
Gomes, N., Torres, J., Rother, B., Schuster, M., Fonseca, A., e González, F. (8 de abril
de 2025): A Internacional Socialista e a América Latina [Painel 2]. Colóquio Mário Soares
e a América Latina: Passado, Presente, Futuro, Teatro Thalia, Lisboa.
Neves, P., Manzano, C., Gomes, N., Patrício, R. e Vitória, R. (8 de abril de 2025): Portugal
e as Cimeiras Ibero-Americanas [Painel 3]. Colóquio Mário Soares e a América Latina:
Passado, Presente, Futuro, Teatro Thalia, Lisboa.
Romão, F., Gaspar, C., Zacarias, A., Malamud, A., e Costa, C. (8 de abril de 2025):
Relações Europa-América Latina [Painel 4]. Colóquio Mário Soares e a América Latina:
Passado, Presente, Futuro, Teatro Thalia, Lisboa.
Cordeiro, P., Aldecoa, F., Jáuregui, R., e Quenan, C. (8 de abril de 2025): América Latina:
olhar o futuro [Painel 5]. Colóquio Mário Soares e a América Latina: Passado, Presente,
Futuro, Teatro Thalia, Lisboa.
Fontes bibliográficas e hemerográficas:
Camero, Y. (2019). La irrupción del populismo. Editorial Alfa.
Gomes, N. (2014). A Política de Portugal para a Ibero-América a partir de 1991. Tese de
doutoramento. Faculdade de Ciências Sociais e Humanas, Universidade Nova de Lisboa.
Hesse, V. (março 2022): Cuando la Internacional Socialista pisaba fuerte. Tradução:
Carlos Díaz Rocca. Nueva Sociedad. https://nuso.org/articulo/auge-y-ocaso-de-la-
internacional-socialist/
Rollo, M. (coord). (2013). Atas. I Congresso de História Contemporânea.
Santos Neves, M. (2016). The Paradoxo f EU Enlargement and Member States’ Policies:
Dilemmas and Challenges – The Case of Portugal. Megatrend revija – Megatrend Review,
13(3), 263–286.
Sebastião, D. (2010). Mário Soares e a Europa: Pensamento e Acção. Faculdade de
Letras, Universidade de Coimbra.
Soares, M. (1976). Portugal en el actual contexto europeo. Nueva Sociedad, 23, p. 25-
35
Söderbaum. F. (2013). Rethinking Regions and Regionalism: Georgetown Journal of
International Affairs, 14 (2), pp. 9-18
Straka, T. (setembro de 2022). Nueva Sociedad o el nacimiento de una socialdemocracia
global. Nueva Sociedad. https://nuso.org/articulo/nueva-sociedad-socialdemocracia-
venezuela/
Vieira, J. (2022): Mário Soares: uma vida (biografia revista e ampliada). Reverso Editora.
Como citar esta nota
Bingre, Andrea Imaginário & Duarte, Débora (2025). “Orgulhosamente Acompanhados”: Olhar
para a América Latina como Mário Soares. Janus.net, e-journal of international relations. VOL. 16,
Nº. 2, novembro 2025-abril 2026, pp. 461-496. DOI https://doi.org/10.26619/1647-7251.16.2.01
OBSERVARE
Universidade Autónoma de Lisboa
e-ISSN: 1647-7251
VOL. 16, N.º 2
noviembre 2025-abril 2026
497
NOTAS Y REFLEXIONES
AMÉRICA LATINA: ¿CÓMO SOBREVIVE UNA REGIÓN
EN ESTADO DE MULTICRISIS?
GERMAN RUEDA OREJARENA
german.rueda.orejarena@gmail.com
Economista colombo-luso con estudios de posgrado en desarrollo, cooperación internacional y
sociología (Colombia). Actualmente es becario de investigación en la Universidade de Évora. Ha
trabajado previamente en el Center for the Study of Democracy, Bulgaria y cuenta con
experiencia en proyectos vinculados a sostenibilidad y geopolítica. Su trayectoria incluye
investigaciones sobre la influencia geopolítica de Rusia en Alemania y América Latina, así como el
análisis de dinámicas internacionales en el contexto de la transición energética. Además, ha
participado en iniciativas enfocadas en medir el bienestar más allá del PIB, como la agenda
Beyond GDP, contribuyendo a enfoques integrales para el desarrollo sostenible.
América Latina ha sido históricamente un territorio atravesado por crisis de toda
dimensión. Esta reflexión crítica con perspectiva sociológica y decolonial analiza el
concepto de crisis tomando como referencia al sociólogo colombiano Orlando Fals Borda.
Fals Borda planteó que las crisis en América Latina revelan contradicciones estructurales
que conducen a la desorganización social e institucional: “La sociedad sufre así un
proceso irreversible de desorganización interna que crea cuerpos y anticuerpos,
expresado en valores, normas, grupos, instituciones y técnicas en conflicto. Según
algunas interpretaciones teóricas, este conflicto debe ir refractando y agotando el orden
social existente para formar eventualmente un nuevo tipo de colectividad” (Fals Borda,
1969, p. 767). Las crisis económicas, ambientales y sociales dan cuenta de ello. Otras,
como las crisis políticas, merecen un análisis más detallado y localizado.
Crisis Económicas
La región ha enfrentado múltiples crisis económicas a lo largo del siglo XX y XXI. Desde
la Gran Depresión hasta la “década perdida” de los años 80 —provocada por el
sobreendeudamiento externo y la subida de tasas de interés en EE. UU.—, estas crisis
dejaron secuelas en las estructuras económicas visibles hasta hoy. La posterior adopción
neoliberal, impuesta por organizaciones internacionales, implicó reformas estructurales
y privatizaciones que, si bien estabilizaron algunas economías, profundizaron la
dependencia al Norte global y redujeron la capacidad de respuesta estatal. En los años
90, la liberalización comercial no logró superar el crecimiento alcanzado durante el
modelo de Industrialización por sustitución de importaciones (ISI). Economistas como
JANUS.NET, e-journal of International Relations
e-ISSN: 1647-7251
VOL 16, Nº. 2
Noviembre 2025-abril 2026, pp. 497-505
América Latina: ¿Cómo sobrevive una región en estado de multicrisis?
German Rueda Orejarena
498
Ocampo (2015) advierten que los beneficios de este nuevo ciclo fueron desigualmente
distribuidos y con baja inversión productiva.
Durante la crisis financiera global de 2008-2009, América Latina sorprendió al mundo al
enfrentar la tormenta económica con una “resiliencia” inusitada para una región
históricamente golpeada por crisis estructurales. A diferencia de episodios anteriores
como el "tequilazo" en México en 1994 o el “corralito” argentino de 2001, esta vez los
cimientos eran más sólidos: mejor regulación bancaria, baja relación entre deuda externa
y reservas, y especialmente altos precios de materias primas. Aunque 2009 fue un año
difícil —con caídas del PIB de 5,9 % en Argentina, 5 % en México y 1,7 % en Chile—, la
recuperación fue rápida. En 2010, las políticas contracíclicas jugaron un papel clave y
permitieron que Brasil creciera 7,5 %, Argentina más del 10 % y México revirtiera su
caída con un rebote similar (Fariza & Molina, 2018). Aun así, la crisis dejó secuelas y las
mayores economías enfrentaron nuevas recesiones al caer los precios de exportación.
Esta tormenta, aunque breve, expuso una causal de las crisis persistentes: la estructural
dependencia de exportaciones primarias.
Gráfico 1. Exportaciones de productos básicos: participación en las exportaciones totales (%)
Fuente: BBVA Research (García-Herrero & Nigrinis, 2012)
La pandemia de COVID-19, los conflictos internacionales en Rusia, Medio Oriente y la
más reciente guerra comercial desatada por los Estados Unidos a la cabeza de Donald
Trump, encontraron a América Latina con escaso margen fiscal: en 2019, el crecimiento
fue de apenas 0,1 %. El Banco Mundial estima que la región crecerá solo 2,1 % en 2025
y 2,4 % en 2026 (World Bank, 2025), el ritmo más bajo del mundo. La inflación, el
endeudamiento y la inversión insuficiente consolidan un modelo frágil y excluyente.
JANUS.NET, e-journal of International Relations
e-ISSN: 1647-7251
VOL 16, Nº. 2
Noviembre 2025-abril 2026, pp. 497-505
América Latina: ¿Cómo sobrevive una región en estado de multicrisis?
German Rueda Orejarena
499
Crisis Ambientales
América Latina enfrenta también una crisis ambiental sin precedentes, impulsada por la
expansión agropecuaria, la deforestación y los efectos del cambio climático. Entre 1990
y 2005, gran parte de la pérdida de cobertura forestal en América Latina se debió a la
conversión de selvas en pastizales, responsable del 71 % de la deforestación en ese
periodo. En 2024, el planeta vivió el año más caluroso jamás registrado, acompañado
por la desaparición de 6,7 millones de hectáreas de selva tropical en todo el mundo, más
de dos tercios de ellas en América Latina. Brasil encabezó esta devastación con 2,8
millones de hectáreas deforestadas, seguido por Bolivia con 1,8 millones. Perú perdió
190.000 hectáreas, lo que representó un alarmante aumento del 135 % respecto a 2023,
mientras que Colombia superó las 100.000 hectáreas. Nicaragua, por su parte, sufrió la
mayor pérdida proporcional de bosque primario, con un 4,7 % de su superficie forestal
original. A escala global, los incendios forestales de 2024 emitieron 4,1 gigatoneladas de
CO₂, una cifra equivalente a cuatro veces las emisiones del transporte aéreo mundial en
2023 (Global Forest Review, 2025).
Entre 2000 y 2022, América Latina y el Caribe enfrentaron una de las crisis más intensas
en materia de desastres naturales a nivel global, con un total de 1.500 eventos que
afectaron a más de 190 millones de personas. En este período se registraron 681
inundaciones, 400 tormentas, 92 terremotos, 77 sequías, 78 deslizamientos de tierra, 49
temperaturas extremas, 42 erupciones volcánicas, 36 incendios forestales, y varias otras
emergencias como epidemias y desplazamientos masivos (OCHA, 2023b). Solo en 2023,
las inundaciones en el norte de Perú, asociadas al fenómeno de El Niño, dejaron más de
839.700 personas afectadas y desencadenaron una epidemia de dengue sin precedentes.
En Guatemala, los huracanes Eta e Iota de categoría 4 azotaron Centroamérica en 2020
durante el punto más crítico de la pandemia, afectando más de 645.100 personas (OCHA,
2023a). A esto se suma el riesgo creciente proyectado por el Banco Mundial, que estima
que más de 17 millones de personas podrían ser desplazadas por el cambio climático en
la región para 2050 (Forbes & Xilotl, 2024).
América Latina y el Caribe han sufrido una pérdida del 95% de su vida silvestre en los
últimos 50 años, siendo la Amazonía el epicentro de esta devastación ecológica. Esta
región, que alberga más del 10% de la biodiversidad terrestre y almacena entre 250.000
y 300.000 millones de toneladas de carbono, se encuentra en un punto de inflexión crítico
(WWF, 2024). En 2024, la selva amazónica vivió su segundo año consecutivo de sequía
histórica y el mayor número de incendios en dos décadas, con más de 5.000 focos en un
solo día y 5,4 millones de hectáreas quemadas solo en tres estados brasileños. En Perú,
16 de las 25 regiones fueron afectadas por incendios, el 70% de ellos en la Amazonía,
alcanzando 87 territorios indígenas. En Bolivia, las llamas afectaron a 4 millones de
hectáreas y 58 territorios indígenas. Solo Brasil concentró el 76% de los puntos críticos
de Sudamérica, y los incendios en bosques primarios crecieron un 132% en agosto
respecto a 2023. Además, los incendios en tierras indígenas aumentaron un 39% y ya
representan el 24% del total en la Amazonía, destruyendo más de 1,3 millones de
hectáreas (Vargas & Poirier, 2024). Este colapso no solo destruye ecosistemas vitales,
sino que convierte al bioma en un emisor neto de CO₂, profundizando la crisis climática
global.
JANUS.NET, e-journal of International Relations
e-ISSN: 1647-7251
VOL 16, Nº. 2
Noviembre 2025-abril 2026, pp. 497-505
América Latina: ¿Cómo sobrevive una región en estado de multicrisis?
German Rueda Orejarena
500
Crisis Sociales
La crisis social en América Latina y el Caribe se manifiesta de manera más evidente en
sus niveles extremos de desigualdad, que siguen siendo los más altos del planeta.
Mientras que en los países de la OCDE el ingreso del 10 % más rico apenas cuadruplica
al del 10 % más pobre, en esta región la brecha se amplía a un promedio de 12 veces.
En naciones como Colombia, Chile y Uruguay, el 1 % más rico concentra entre el 37 %
y el 40 % de toda la riqueza nacional, en contraste con la mitad más pobre de la
población, que apenas posee el 10 %. Aunque se registraron avances en la reducción de
la desigualdad entre 1990 y 2014, especialmente en países como Brasil, Bolivia, Chile y
Perú, los progresos se han estancado en la última década y las brechas persisten. Esta
desigualdad no solo es profunda, sino también estructural: millones de familias en
situación de pobreza enfrentan un patrimonio neto negativo, con deudas que superan
sus activos. Además, las oportunidades económicas siguen estando determinadas por el
origen social: entre el 44 % y el 63 % de la diferencia de ingresos en países como
Argentina y Guatemala se explica por condiciones heredadas como el nivel educativo de
los padres, la etnicidad o el lugar de nacimiento. A ello se suman las históricas
desigualdades territoriales: en países como Bolivia, hasta el 58 % de la desigualdad total
proviene de la disparidad entre zonas rurales y urbanas, lo que evidencia la profundidad
y persistencia de una fractura social que trasciende generaciones (BID, 2024a).
Este panorama de exclusión social y económica se entrelaza con una creciente crisis de
violencia. América Latina alberga solo al 8% de la población mundial, pero concentró
alrededor del 50% de los homicidios en 2018 (Hernández Bringas, 2022) aunque estudios
para otros años estiman este valor entre 15% y 20%. Países como Venezuela, Honduras,
El Salvador y México han reportado tasas de homicidio superiores a 30 por cada 100.000
habitantes. En 2024, Ecuador alcanzó niveles alarmantes de violencia, con 38,8
asesinatos por cada 100.000 habitantes, situación que llevó al gobierno a declarar el
conflicto armado interno contra bandas criminales. Haití, por su parte, ha colapsado
institucionalmente ante el control de bandas armadas que dominan la capital, Puerto
Príncipe, provocando desplazamientos masivos y miles de muertes.
El incremento de la violencia en América Latina está estrechamente vinculado al avance
del crimen organizado, que ha evolucionado hacia redes cada vez más complejas y
violentas, alimentadas por el narcotráfico y alianzas entre bandas locales y carteles de
México, Brasil y Colombia. Países con antecedentes históricos de violencia, como
Colombia y Brasil, figuran hoy entre los más afectados. Según el Índice Global de Crimen
Organizado 2023, Colombia (7,75), México (7,57) y Paraguay (7,52) se ubicaron entre
los cinco países con mayor criminalidad a nivel mundial. A nivel regional, América Central
presentó el promedio más alto (6,28), seguida de América del Sur (5,94) (Global
Initiative Against Transnational Organized Crime, 2023). América Latina sigue siendo el
epicentro de la producción mundial de cocaína, con Colombia, Perú y Bolivia como los
principales productores, y países como Venezuela, Ecuador, México, Brasil y toda América
Central desempeñando un rol clave en su exportación. A esto se suma la aparición de
nuevas rutas y mercados en Paraguay, Costa Rica y Argentina.
Ante el entramado de desigualdad, pobreza estructural y violencia, los países de América
Latina y el Caribe enfrentan una paradoja inquietante: comparten amenazas comunes,
pero carecen de respuestas colectivas. La ausencia de una institución regional ha dejado
JANUS.NET, e-journal of International Relations
e-ISSN: 1647-7251
VOL 16, Nº. 2
Noviembre 2025-abril 2026, pp. 497-505
América Latina: ¿Cómo sobrevive una región en estado de multicrisis?
German Rueda Orejarena
501
a los Estados expuestos frente al avance del crimen organizado transnacional. Iniciativas
como la Alianza para la Seguridad, la Justicia y el Desarrollo, impulsada por el BID y que
congregó a 18 países en 2024, representan un paso hacia la coordinación regional,
aunque siguen siendo insuficientes si no se acompañan de transformaciones
estructurales en áreas como salud, educación, pensiones y empleo. Estudios del BID
revelan, por ejemplo, que los subsidios a las pensiones benefician en mayor medida a
los sectores más acomodados, y que una educación de calidad desigual perpetúa las
brechas sociales (Stampini et al., 2023). Sin una estrategia integral que articule
desarrollo social con cooperación en seguridad, la región corre el riesgo de profundizar
su crisis multidimensional y mantenerse atrapada en un ciclo persistente de exclusión y
violencia.
Estrategias de resistencia en tiempos de crisis
Ante el estado permanente de crisis que atraviesa América Latina, las comunidades no
adoptan una postura pasiva. Al contrario, como subrayaba Fals Borda (1969), de las
profundidades sociales emergen formas persistentes de resistencia y esperanza que
sostienen la posibilidad de transformación. Las frustraciones estructurales no paralizan
la voluntad colectiva; más bien, acumulan tensiones que, al alcanzar ciertos umbrales,
impulsan procesos de acción organizada. Incluso las respuestas más limitadas pueden
convertirse en puntos de partida para movilizaciones más amplias, revelando una
capacidad de respuesta social que, aunque muchas veces silenciosa, sigue activa y
latente.
Los modelos de desarrollo impuestos desde fuera —basados en cifras, inversión
extranjera y mitos de modernización— han producido transformaciones superficiales.
Lejos de impulsar un cambio estructural, han ampliado las desigualdades y generado
oportunidades limitadas, sin activar los motores profundos del desarrollo social y
económico. En este contexto, la supervivencia no es únicamente económica, sino
también simbólica y política: las comunidades reconfiguran sus vínculos, migran,
resisten, crean saberes propios y se movilizan en busca de autodeterminación. Esta
fuerza revela el potencial de una sociología de la liberación que comprende la crisis como
catalizador histórico hacia la construcción de un porvenir más justo. Así, las múltiples
crisis que golpean a la región no solo exponen sus fracturas, sino también la potencia
regeneradora de sus pueblos.
Uno de los grandes "problemas" que enfrenta la economía formal en América Latina es
precisamente la economía informal. Esta se manifiesta especialmente en el mercado
laboral, donde una alta proporción de trabajadores no está registrada oficialmente.
También se extiende al crédito informal y a la economía de bolsillo que muchas familias
utilizan para sobrevivir. Aunque existen numerosas propuestas y metodologías para
formalizar el trabajo, las rentas y otros aspectos de la vida cotidiana —como la
regularización de propiedades urbanas y rurales, actividades comerciales lícitas e ilícitas,
o los ahorros que provienen de remesas—, la informalidad sigue siendo, en muchos
casos, no solo una alternativa necesaria, sino la única opción para millones de personas
que necesitan sostener sus hogares y garantizar condiciones mínimas de vida.
Hernando de Soto plantea que la economía informal no es en sí el problema, sino una
respuesta popular creativa y espontánea de los sectores más pobres para satisfacer sus
JANUS.NET, e-journal of International Relations
e-ISSN: 1647-7251
VOL 16, Nº. 2
Noviembre 2025-abril 2026, pp. 497-505
América Latina: ¿Cómo sobrevive una región en estado de multicrisis?
German Rueda Orejarena
502
necesidades básicas ante la ineficiencia y exclusión impuestas por el propio Estado.
Según él, el verdadero obstáculo radica en la estructura estatal, que, en lugar de apoyar
estas iniciativas, suele adoptar políticas que buscan combatir la informalidad como si
fuera una amenaza. De hecho, advierte que muchas de estas medidas terminan
destruyendo el capital acumulado por las personas y las condiciones que han construido
para sobrevivir, profundizando así su situación de pobreza (Mercado & Rios, 2005).
Mientras aquí mantengo que la informalidad es un mecanismo de resistencia a las
condiciones predatorias del sistema capitalista que fuerza y excluye una parte de la
población, también considero que estas mismas condiciones de permanente exclusión y
hartazgo frente a la poca esperanza vista en el futuro, son condiciones que han resultado
en complejos procesos de revuelta social. Los casos más recientes en la región se
conocen como el estallido social.
Figures 1 and 2. Protestas en Cali, Colombia (arriba) y Santiago, Chile (abajo).
Fuentes: @pachito.galbana y Carlos Figueroa.
JANUS.NET, e-journal of International Relations
e-ISSN: 1647-7251
VOL 16, Nº. 2
Noviembre 2025-abril 2026, pp. 497-505
América Latina: ¿Cómo sobrevive una región en estado de multicrisis?
German Rueda Orejarena
503
Durante la última década, América Latina ha experimentado un creciente malestar
ciudadano. Desde 2019, países como Ecuador, Chile, Bolivia y Colombia han sido
escenario de protestas masivas motivadas por políticas fiscales, crisis de legitimidad y
falta de oportunidades. Aunque la pandemia frenó temporalmente las movilizaciones,
estas reaparecieron con fuerza en Perú y Paraguay entre finales de 2020 y principios de
2021. En Colombia, una reforma tributaria desencadenó en 2021 una de las protestas
más prolongadas y violentas de su historia reciente, mientras que en Chile el descontento
dio origen a un proceso constituyente. En otros países, como México y El Salvador, el
malestar se canalizó por vía electoral, favoreciendo liderazgos personalistas como los de
López Obrador y Bukele. En Brasil, las manifestaciones de 2013 y la destitución de Dilma
Rousseff allanaron el camino para el ascenso de Jair Bolsonaro (Murillo, 2021). En todos
estos casos, las protestas evidencian la tensión estructural entre democracia y
desigualdad, con una ciudadanía —particularmente jóvenes— que demanda
transformaciones profundas en medio de una creciente fragmentación política e
incertidumbre institucional.
Cuando los jóvenes —y no solo ellos— no encuentran en las protestas u otras formas de
resistencia una respuesta a las múltiples crisis que los rodean, tampoco optan por la
pasividad. Vivir en medio de una modernidad líquida, que exige constantemente del
individuo adaptarse y reinventarse, los empuja a buscar alternativas. En ese contexto,
la migración emerge no solo como una salida, sino como un acto de resistencia frente a
un orden establecido que no les ofrece futuro. Migrar se convierte, así, en una forma de
romper con la inmovilidad de un sistema que ya no responde a sus expectativas y
necesidades.
Entre 2015 y 2019, la población migrante en América Latina y el Caribe creció a un ritmo
sin precedentes, casi duplicándose de 8,4 millones a 12,8 millones de personas (Inter-
American Development Bank & Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development,
2021). Este aumento refleja el dinamismo y la complejidad de los flujos migratorios en
la región, que representan cerca del 15% del total mundial de migrantes internacionales
(281 millones en 2020) (Cecchini & Martínez Pizarro, 2023). A diferencia de otras
regiones, América Latina ha sido escenario de un fuerte incremento de la migración
intrarregional, que creció un 72% entre 2000 y 2020, el mayor aumento relativo a nivel
global. Países como Colombia, Perú y Chile se convirtieron en destinos clave debido,
principalmente, al éxodo masivo desde Venezuela: en 2020, los venezolanos
representaban en promedio el 30% de la población migrante en 13 países de la región.
Mientras tanto, Argentina, Brasil, Chile, Colombia, México y Perú concentraban más de
un millón de inmigrantes cada uno, siendo Argentina el país que acogía a casi una sexta
parte de la población migrante regional. A nivel interno, se destaca que la mayoría de los
migrantes se encuentran en edad laboral activa (el 72% tiene entre 15 y 64 años), una
proporción mayor que la de la población nativa, lo que resalta su potencial contribución
económica (BID, 2024b).
Lejos de ser únicamente señales de descomposición o desorden, fenómenos comúnmente
catalogados como crisis —como la migración masiva, el aumento de la violencia, los
conflictos de orden público o las tensiones en el mercado laboral— pueden y deben ser
comprendidos como expresiones de resistencia, reorganización y dinamismo social ante
crisis estructurales más profundas y prolongadas. Estas reacciones no surgen en el vacío,
sino como respuestas necesarias de comunidades que enfrentan las consecuencias de
JANUS.NET, e-journal of International Relations
e-ISSN: 1647-7251
VOL 16, Nº. 2
Noviembre 2025-abril 2026, pp. 497-505
América Latina: ¿Cómo sobrevive una región en estado de multicrisis?
German Rueda Orejarena
504
modelos económicos, ambientales y sociales que ignoran las realidades locales y
regionales. La migración, por ejemplo, no es solo un desplazamiento forzado, sino
también una estrategia de supervivencia y de búsqueda activa de condiciones más dignas
de vida. Del mismo modo, muchas manifestaciones de informalidad laboral, movilización
popular o redes de apoyo comunitarias emergen como formas de sostener la vida frente
a la falta de respuestas adecuadas del Estado o del mercado. Por tanto, estas llamadas
“crisis” deben ser leídas también como expresiones legítimas de agencia colectiva y
adaptabilidad, y no simplemente como amenazas al orden establecido. Reconocer este
carácter transformador permite abrir el camino hacia políticas más justas, centradas en
el respeto a los derechos humanos y en el fortalecimiento de capacidades locales.
Referencias
BID. (2024a, March 6). Las complejidades de la desigualdad en América Latina y el
Caribe. Hoja Informativa. https://www.iadb.org/es/noticias/las-complejidades-de-la-
desigualdad-en-america-latina-y-el-caribe
BID. (2024b, July 2). Panorama de la población migrante en América Latina y el Caribe.
La Maleta Abierta. https://blogs.iadb.org/migracion/es/panorama-de-la-poblacion-
migrante-en-america-latina-y-el-caribe/
Cecchini, S., & Martínez Pizarro, J. (2023). Migración internacional en América Latina y
el Caribe: Una mirada de desarrollo y derechos. Revista de la CEPAL, 141(diciembre).
https://hdl.handle.net/11362/69122
Fals Borda, O. (1969). Algunos problemas prácticos de la sociología de la crisis | Revista
Mexicana de Sociología. Revista Mexicana de Sociologia, 31(4), 767–793.
Fariza, I., & Molina, F. R. (2018, September 9). América Latina: La crisis que fue una
tormenta de verano. El País.
https://elpais.com/economia/2018/09/05/actualidad/1536143467_092539.html
Forbes, A., & Xilotl, M. (2024, July 8). Preparándonos para la movilidad climática en
América Latina y el Caribe. UNDP. https://www.undp.org/es/latin-
america/blog/preparandonos-para-la-movilidad-climatica-en-america-latina-y-el-caribe
García-Herrero, A., & Nigrinis, M. (2012, May 7). Latin America’s commodity dependence
and the China effect [Seminar at Carnegie-Tsinghua Center].
https://www.bbvaresearch.com/wp-
content/uploads/mult/120507_Latin_American_Commodity_dependence_tcm348-
326958.pdf
Global Forest Review. (2025). Fires Drove Record-breaking Tropical Forest Loss in 2024.
World Resources Institute. https://research.wri.org/gfr/latest-analysis-deforestation-
trends
Global Initiative Against Transnational Organized Crime. (2023). The Global Organized
Crime Index 2023. https://globalinitiative.net/analysis/ocindex-2023/
Hernández Bringas, H. (2022). Homicidios en América Latina y el Caribe: Magnitud y
factores asociados. Notas de Población CEPAL, 113(Julio-Diciembre), 119–144.
JANUS.NET, e-journal of International Relations
e-ISSN: 1647-7251
VOL 16, Nº. 2
Noviembre 2025-abril 2026, pp. 497-505
América Latina: ¿Cómo sobrevive una región en estado de multicrisis?
German Rueda Orejarena
505
Inter-American Development Bank & Organization for Economic Cooperation and
Development. (2021). Migration Flows in Latin America and the Caribbean: Statistics on
Permits for Migrants. Inter-American Development Bank.
https://doi.org/10.18235/0003665
Mercado, A. F., & Rios, F. (2005). La informalidad: ¿estrategia de sobrevivencia o forma
de vida alternativa? (Working Paper No. 04/05). Documento de Trabajo.
https://www.econstor.eu/handle/10419/72800
Murillo, M. V. (2021). Protestas, descontento y democracia en América Latina | Nueva
Sociedad. Nueva Sociedad | Democracia y Política En América Latina, 294(Julio-Agosto).
https://nuso.org/articulo/protestas-descontento-y-democracia-en-america-latina/
Ocampo, J. A. (2015). Los retos del desarrollo latinoamericano a la luz de la historia.
Cuadernos de Economía, 34(66), 479–506.
https://doi.org/10.15446/cuad.econ.v34n66.49416
OCHA. (2023a). América Latina y el Caribe: Desastres = Amenazas Naturales +
Vulnerabilidades Humanas. https://unocha.exposure.co/america-latina-y-el-caribe
OCHA. (2023b). Panorama de los Desastres en América Latina y el Caribe 2000—2022.
https://www.unocha.org/publications/report/world/panorama-de-los-desastres-en-
america-latina-y-el-caribe-2000-2022
Stampini, M., Medellín, N., & Ibarrarán, P. (2023). Cash Transfers, Poverty, and
Inequality in Latin America and the Caribbean. Inter-American Development Bank.
https://doi.org/10.18235/0005235
Vargas, P., & Poirier, C. (2024, September 17). De la crisis a la catástrofe: El infierno
provocado por el hombre que devora la Amazonia. Amazon Watch.
https://amazonwatch.org/es/news/2024/0917-from-crisis-to-catastrophe-the-man-
made-inferno-devouring-the-amazon
World Bank. (2025). Economic Outlook | Latin America and the Caribbean April 2025.
World Bank. https://www.worldbank.org/en/region/lac/publication/perspectivas-
economicas-america-latina-caribe
WWF. (2024). Informe Planeta Vivo 2024. Un sistema en peligro.
https://livingplanet.panda.org/es-CO/amazonia_al_limite/
Cómo citar esta nota
Rueda Orejarena, German (2025). América Latina: ¿Cómo sobrevive una región en estado de
multicrisis?. Janus.net, e-journal of international relations. VOL. 16, Nº. 2, noviembre 2025-abril
2026, pp. 461-505. DOI https://doi.org/10.26619/1647-7251.16.2.02
OBSERVARE
Universidade Autónoma de Lisboa
e-ISSN: 1647-7251
VOL. 16, N.º 2
November 2025-April 2026
506
NOTES AND REFLECTIONS
ISSUES OF APPLICATION OF ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE IN CIVIL
LITIGATION
PIRMATOV OTABEK SHAVKATOVICH
pirmatov.otabek.89@inbox.ru
Associate Professor of the Department of Civil Procedural and Economic Procedural Law,
Tashkent State University of Law (Uzbekistan), Doctor of Sciences in Law (DSc)
ORCID: 0009-0003-1623-045X
Introduction
Nowadays, with the help of modern information technologies, some procedural actions
in civil court cases can be carried out without a judge or his assistant.
There is a plaque at Dartmouth College that reads: “In this building during the summer
of 1956 John McCarthy (Dartmouth College), Marvin L. Minsky (MIT), Nathaniel Rochester
(IBM), and Claude Shannon (Bell Laboratories) conducted the Dartmouth Summer
Research Project on Artificial Intelligence. First use of the term ‘Artificial Intelligence.’
Founding of Artificial Intelligence as a research discipline ‘to proceed on the basis of the
conjecture that every aspect of learning or any other feature of intelligence can in
principle be so precisely described that a machine can be made to simulate it[1].
The application of artificial intelligence systems in the social sphere and economic sectors
creates great opportunities for humanity. However, new opportunities also create some
problems. Such problems are directly explained by the unique characteristics of artificial
intelligence systems, including the ability of these systems to self-learn, act
autonomously, intelligently, and even make independent decisions as a result of the
further development of technologies, as a result of which these systems become more
powerful and complex. In particular, the issue of the legal status of artificial intelligence
systems is extremely controversial, and this creates a number of problems in the legal
regulation of relations related to their activities.
Today, the volume of data generated by humans and machines far exceeds the ability of
humans to process, interpret, and make complex decisions. Artificial intelligence is the
foundation for teaching computers and the future of complex solutions.
Artificial intelligence (AI) is the field of creating and implementing algorithms in a fast
computing environment that mimic human cognitive processes[2].
Mainly in Western countries, artificial intelligence is being used to solve civil disputes and
criminal cases.
JANUS.NET, e-journal of International Relations
e-ISSN: 1647-7251
VOL 16, Nº. 2
November 2025-April 2026, pp. 506-514
Issues of Application of Artificial Intelligence in Civil Litigation
Pirmatov Otabek Shavkatovich
507
The development of startups that predict civil disputes based on artificial intelligence by
law firms and law offices operating in our country would also serve to increase lawyers'
income.
An artificial intelligence that can understand and speak Uzbek has been created. Now, if
you need to do something or find information, you can turn to "Mohira" instead of "Siri",
"Alexa" or "Alisa"[3].
Literature review
A.D. (Dory) Reiling emphasizes that the implementation of artificial intelligence in courts
has the following advantages:
1. Organising information. Recognising patterns in text documents and files can be
useful, for example when sorting large amounts of cases, or in complex cases that
contain a lot of information.
2. Advise. AI that is able to advise, can be useful for people and potential parties to a
court case, who are looking for a solution to their problem, but do not yet know what
they can do. Advisory AI can also be useful for legal professionals. AI not only looks
for relevant information, but also provides an answer to a question.
3. Predictions. AI that claims to be able to predict court decisions attracts a lot of
interest. The usual English/American term for this is “predictive justice”. This term
has given rise to discussion, because the outcome of the prediction algorithms is
neither justice nor predictive. The term “forecast” is a more accurate description,
reflecting current debates. The outcome looks more like a weather forecast than like
an established fact. Just like the weather, court proceedings risk having an
unpredictable outcome[4].
Since artificial intelligence is a technology, it is natural that it will not have close relatives
and acquaintances. Most importantly, artificial intelligence will not be pressured by the
above positions.
P.M. Morkhat listed the specific aspects of the use of artificial intelligence in legal
proceedings:
− comparing regulatory legal acts in order to determine their hierarchy;
− performing simultaneous professional legal translations in court proceedings
involving a foreign element;
− automatically classifying, forming and documenting legal acts;
− assisting the judge in determining the violated rights of the parties;
− making legal decisions using artificial intelligence when an operational expert
assessment is necessary;
− comprehensively examining cases on newly discovered cases;
− selecting judges from a special list;
− checking judicial errors, etc[5. –C. 8-12].
JANUS.NET, e-journal of International Relations
e-ISSN: 1647-7251
VOL 16, Nº. 2
November 2025-April 2026, pp. 506-514
Issues of Application of Artificial Intelligence in Civil Litigation
Pirmatov Otabek Shavkatovich
508
According to K.L. Branovitsky addressing the challenges of implementing artificial
intelligence technologies:
1) the problem of the concept of "artificial intelligence";
2) the problem of access to data;
3) the problem of expert application of artificial intelligence systems in justice;
4) the problem of application of artificial intelligence for analysis of judicial practice and
forecasting;
5) the problem of application of artificial intelligence technologies by persons
participating in the case.
6) the problem of delegating individual functions for conducting the case to the system
based on artificial intelligence;
7) the problem of application of artificial intelligence for evaluation of evidence,
establishment of factual circumstances of the case and applicable legal norms[6].
In light of the foregoing, we can examine to what extent Al can support or displace
judges. Rather obviously, Al can do for judges many of the same tasks Al does for
lawyers. For example, just as Al accelerates legal research for lawyers, it can accelerate
legal research for judges. At present, again as is true with lawyers, it would be unwise
to completely trust the results of Al legal research, but in many cases, it can whittle down
the body of law that needs to be examined[7].
The websites of all courts around the world have interfaces that provide interactive
services. In particular, we discussed the availability of interactive services on the official
website of the Supreme Court of the Republic of Uzbekistan in our previous chapters. Of
course, artificial intelligence can help process large amounts of data in courts.
As noted above, newer technologies can assist people to resolve disputes at an earlier
time or refine the issues that need to be presented to judges. For example, technology
can assist people to develop options and use AI to develop alternatives, and can be used
to run evaluative, advisory and determinative processes. In this regard, some disruptive
technologies are linked to Artificial Legal Intelligence (‘ALI’) which can be viewed as a
system that has the capacity to render expert legal advice or decision-making[8].
Alternative options or advice provided by artificial intelligence forces the party to consider
going to court. That is, if the party knows that the outcome of the civil case will be in its
favor, it may consider filing a case within a court and paying the state fee.
By analyzing civil disputes with the help of artificial intelligence, it is possible to assess
what the resolution of the dispute will be.
The “smart court” includes non-human judges, powered by artificial intelligence (AI) and
allows participants to register their cases online and resolve their matters via a digital
court hearing[9].
The use of AI in Chinese courts has been evident in three important functions. First, AI
tools are being used to assist with judicial decision-making. China’s Internet courts have
been experimenting with “AI judges” to assist courts with the adjudication of basic, non-
JANUS.NET, e-journal of International Relations
e-ISSN: 1647-7251
VOL 16, Nº. 2
November 2025-April 2026, pp. 506-514
Issues of Application of Artificial Intelligence in Civil Litigation
Pirmatov Otabek Shavkatovich
509
complex cases, such as low-value contract and negligence disputes. These tools are
aimed at promoting greater consistency of judgements across China, as well as mitigating
potential gaps in judicial expertise. A judge may submit to an AI-enabled system the
relevant information of the present case that they are hearing and receive analysis of
automatically collated cases that were similarly decided for the judge’s reference. In
some courts, such a system can also undertake deviation analysis on draft judgments by
comparing relevant evidence with evidence in previous court decisions[10. P.3.].
The smart court has embraced various newer technologies, supported by AI, the use of
big data, and to a limited extent blockchain approaches[11].
Indeed, artificial intelligence, big data, and blockchain technologies can be considered
the latest achievements of humanity today. The digitization of civil court proceedings
involves achieving full electronic management of court activities and offering other
intelligent digital options to facilitate court tasks and be more convenient for the parties.
Discussion
Digital courts can take various forms and be organized at various levels. In our country,
civil courts have introduced procedures for parties to submit documents related to the
case file electronically and for civil courts to communicate electronically.
One of the forms of digitalization of civil court cases is the electronic filing system, which
allows the civil court to download any civil court decision online from anywhere.
Digitization not only affects the daily operations of the court, but also allows for the
analysis of big data in the court and the provision of information to the public.
The use of digital tools in courts is becoming increasingly widespread around the world.
So-called “cyberjustice” tools have already been implemented in several US and Asian
judicial systems, including artificial intelligence, which facilitates access to justice,
improves communication between courts and lawyers, and directly assists judges and
court administrators.
Artificial intelligence serves to reduce the human factor by integrating algorithms and big
data analysis into the judicial process. Artificial intelligence ranges from systems that can
automatically show judges similar cases as reference, to systems that can process and
cross-check all collected evidence, to systems that can automatically identify conflicts or
relevant information for the judge to consider.
DoNotPay's world-first robot lawyer works on a defendant's smartphone and gives
instructions on what to say to his client during the argument.
Artificial intelligence programs that can make decisions based on input can be applied to
civil litigation.
Artificial intelligence acts according to a given algorithm. A robot judge makes a certain
number of decisions faster than a human.
A robot judge can be one of the solutions in the fight against corruption. Also, civil
litigation will be speeded up because the robot judge can work 24/7.
Four Examples of Artificial Intelligence in the Justice System:
JANUS.NET, e-journal of International Relations
e-ISSN: 1647-7251
VOL 16, Nº. 2
November 2025-April 2026, pp. 506-514
Issues of Application of Artificial Intelligence in Civil Litigation
Pirmatov Otabek Shavkatovich
510
Prometea
An artificial intelligence program developed and implemented in Argentina in 2017. The
project is famous for the fact that its verdicts in court cases during the experimental
stage never actually differed from those issued by judges.
Assistant Robots
Chinese courts often have a robot assistant that answers questions using understandable
language that is not loaded with legal vocabulary. The country is also gradually
introducing virtual or, as they are also called, cyber courts.
Robot Judge
In Estonia, several ministries have introduced artificial intelligence into the courts to help
people file cases faster.
Pretoria
The Constitutional Court of Colombia recently announced the adoption of an artificial
intelligence program called Pretoria to make the work of judges easier. The project
significantly reduces paperwork[12].
The Buenos Aires District Prosecutor's Office (Argentina) has summed up the interim
results of testing the Prometea software application, which can issue and formalize a
court decision in a number of categories of civil and administrative cases in 10 seconds.
It turned out that local judges approved 100% of the decisions made over the past year
using artificial intelligence[13].
Various forms of artificial intelligence are already widely used in many judicial systems
around the world, both in the form of the first bots and in the form of neural networks.
The People’s Republic of China is ahead of others in the use of artificial intelligence in the
courts. China’s Hebei Supreme Court has developed the Intelligent Trial 1.0 system that
helps courts automatically digitize files, classify documents, search for relevant laws,
decisions and documents and then automatically creates documents (i.e. notifications)
and coordinates tasks in the workflow[14].
In the Dutch judicial system, artificial intelligence is making its own decisions in certain
types of civil cases for debt collection. Research shows that if certain conditions are met,
artificial intelligence can make autonomous decisions to a limited extent. In foreign
countries, robot judges are strictly automated to strictly follow the laws, they do it 100
times better and faster than any human.
Moreover, according to M.Masiddiqov, there are a number of questions related to the use
of artificial intelligence in legal proceedings, the judiciary and the judicial system. Firstly,
to what extent can artificial intelligence be useful for the functioning of courts and for
independent judges, subject only to the law, who are authorized to consider and resolve
a specific court case;
JANUS.NET, e-journal of International Relations
e-ISSN: 1647-7251
VOL 16, Nº. 2
November 2025-April 2026, pp. 506-514
Issues of Application of Artificial Intelligence in Civil Litigation
Pirmatov Otabek Shavkatovich
511
Secondly, what are the requirements for the use of artificial intelligence; how can artificial
intelligence help the court make a fair decision, in what order and on the basis of what
requirements; compliance with international standards for the use of artificial intelligence
capabilities in the conduct of legal cases; issues such as the danger of artificial
intelligence in the work of courts and judges [15].
If the law does not clearly define the algorithm for implementing the norm in a particular
case and it is necessary to make a decision on an individual basis, then the human factor
is necessary.
Given the large amount of memory and the speed of analysis of artificial intelligence
data, robotized courts can reduce the workload of civil courts.
As a result of repeated consideration of legal disputes by robot judges, artificial
intelligence stores this solution in its memory.
A robot judge does not violate the terms of the case - it allows you to analyze and make
decisions as quickly as possible. A software robot can learn and make decisions hundreds
of times faster than a human.
They, as judges, do not have the same intellectual, moral, emotional, physical,
intellectual and other superfluous feelings as people do. This allows a robot judge to
make a fair, objective and well-founded decision based on a broader analysis of all the
information.
The result of the study by the signal processing unit is recorded in a graph of the
calculation parameters, which is displayed on the computer along with the questions
asked.
Artificial intelligence in the judicial system and law enforcement agencies should be used
only if its implementation ensures transparency.
Judges based on artificial intelligence can simultaneously consider several civil cases and
find relevant legal documents almost instantly. This is useful not only for judges to focus
on more important decisions, but also for citizens who do not want to participate in long
and complicated court proceedings.
Because the judiciary is a collegial body made up of hundreds, if not thousands, of
different judges, different civil courts make different decisions. Artificial intelligence-
based judges help to standardize some types of civil court cases.
It is anticipated that with the help of AI systems more frequently applied in the legal
field, more people will gain access to court as the efficiency of courts is expected to
improve. In addition, it will be easier and cheaper to seek and receive legal advice[16.
P.283].
It is possible to create chatbots that will answer questions that arise in civil courts,
especially in cases of adversarial procedure. It is possible to ensure that this chatbot
answers questions related to civil court cases. For example, a question can be asked to
the chatbot in the following order:
What is the amount of alimony that parents pay to their minor children?
A: If there is no notarized agreement between the parents on the provision of support
for their minor children, alimony for their maintenance is collected by the court in the
JANUS.NET, e-journal of International Relations
e-ISSN: 1647-7251
VOL 16, Nº. 2
November 2025-April 2026, pp. 506-514
Issues of Application of Artificial Intelligence in Civil Litigation
Pirmatov Otabek Shavkatovich
512
amount of one quarter of the parents' monthly salary and (or) other income for one child,
one third for two children, and half for three or more children.
How long must a claim for reinstatement be filed with the court?
A: A claim for reinstatement is filed within one month from the date of the employee
being given a copy of the order terminating the employment contract.
A chat bot that answers such questions would also serve to raise the legal awareness of
our citizens.
Perhaps in the future, chat bots can be created that answer questions on labor, family,
and housing disputes.
When a claim is submitted, it can monitor the payment of the state fee and other attached
documents, as well as assign cases to judges, prepare subpoenas and send them to the
parties. Even the development of a final draft decision can be left to artificial intelligence,
since artificial intelligence will have special algorithms that can serve as the basis for
making a decision and the draft decision.
Artificial intelligence decision-making is based on special algorithms. When making a
decision on debt collection:
− the debtor has violated the contract;
− the debtor can be held liable for the violation of the contract;
− the creditor has suffered or may suffer damage;
− the damage is intended to protect against the violation of contractual obligations;
− there is a causal link between the failure to fulfill or improper fulfillment of the
obligation and the damage;
− the presence of fines and penalties in the contract must be taken into account.
The above conditions are programmed with the help of artificial intelligence and used
when making a decision.
In addition to the possible gains in the efficiency and expediency of civil litigation, artificial
intelligence is intended to help these smart courts achieve the goals of judicial reform,
increasing trust, transparency, consistency, and even independence from unwanted
internal and external interference.
One of the urgent problems in modern civil procedural legislation is that the current
judicial system cannot cope with the volume of cases submitted for consideration, and
mediation as an institution is in no way an alternative to the existing judicial system and
does not compete with it[17. P.54].
Conclusion
The application of artificial intelligence by courts can be manifested in the following
forms:
Firstly, artificial intelligence can be used to improve the workload of judges. In addition,
the use of artificial intelligence in court administration can make better use of the large
amount of valuable data that the judicial system has.
JANUS.NET, e-journal of International Relations
e-ISSN: 1647-7251
VOL 16, Nº. 2
November 2025-April 2026, pp. 506-514
Issues of Application of Artificial Intelligence in Civil Litigation
Pirmatov Otabek Shavkatovich
513
Secondly, artificial intelligence can be used to help judges identify patterns in judicial
practice and verify evidence presented by the parties.
The introduction of artificial intelligence in civil litigation can ensure:
a) improving the quality and efficiency of civil court activities. The system of issuing
decisions by courts in civil cases, the use of text processing systems, the use of
speech and video recognition systems for compiling audio and video records of court
sessions, and the automated preparation of draft court documents;
b) increasing the efficiency of judicial protection of the rights and legitimate interests
of individuals and legal entities. Expansion of remote participation in court hearings
by the use of artificial intelligence, biometric identification of citizens;
c) increase legal awareness by introducing systems for predicting the outcome of civil
court cases in order to reduce disputes.
References
1. Artificial Intelligence by Stephanie Dick Published on Jul 02, 2019.
https://hdsr.mitpress.mit.edu/pub/0aytgrau/release/3
2. http://idtm.uz/suniy-intellekt/
3. https://kun.uz/news/2023/03/12/ozbekcha-alisa-qanday-ishlab-chiqildi-loyiha-
asoschilari-bilan-suhbat
4. https://www.iacajournal.org/articles/10.36745/ijca.343/
5. Морхат, П. М. Возможности, особенности и условия применения
искусственного интеллекта в юридической практике /Администратор суда. – 2018. –
№ 2. – С. 8–12.
6. Брановицкий К.Л. и другие. Цифровые технологии в цивилистическом
процессе: некоторые проблемы и перспективы//
https://www.researchgate.net/publication/336408856
7. Ray Worthy Campbell. Artificial Intelligence in the Courtroom: The Delivery of
Justice in the Age of Machine Learning. Revista Forumul Judecatorilor - Nr. 2/2023.
https://heinonline.org/HOL/Page?collection=journals&handle=hein.journals/judioruie20
23&id=359&men_tab=srchresults
8. Richard Susskind, The Future of Law: Facing the Challenges of Information
Technology (Clarendon Press, 1996) 120–1. Expert systems and knowledge-based
systems may be used in ‘solving problems, offering advice, and undertaking a variety of
other tasks’ in a legal context. This is in direct support of the author’s in-text proposition
that ALI may present ‘a system that has the capacity to render expert legal advice or
decision-making’: at 121.
9. https://www.lexisnexis.ca/en-ca/ihc/2020-02/robot-justice-chinas-use-of-
internet-courts.page
10. Mimi Zou. “Smart courts” in China and the future of personal injury litigation.
Oxford University Press, 2019. Р.3.
JANUS.NET, e-journal of International Relations
e-ISSN: 1647-7251
VOL 16, Nº. 2
November 2025-April 2026, pp. 506-514
Issues of Application of Artificial Intelligence in Civil Litigation
Pirmatov Otabek Shavkatovich
514
11. Changqing Shi, Tania Sourdin, Bin Li. The Smart Court - A New Pathway to Justice
in China? https://ssrn.com/abstract=3778345
12. https://www.metronews.ru/novosti/world/reviews/iskusstvennyy-intellekt-
mozhet-stat-chastyu-suda-1703741/
13. https://legal.report/resheniya-robota-sudi-polnostyu-ustraivayut-sluzhitelej-
femidy/
14. https://aastaraamat.riigikohus.ee/en/artificial-intelligence-a-substitute-or-
supporter-of-judges/
15. Mamasiddiqov M. Artificial intelligence in litigation matters of use of opportunities.
Materials of the international conference “Global challenges and threats in the field of law
enforcement: problems and solutions”. Volume I.– T.: Lesson Press, 2025. – P.50.
16. Franciska Zsófia Gyuranecz, Bernadett Krausz, Dorottya Papp. The AI is now in
session – The impact of digitalization on courts Team Hungary. 2019. P.283.
17. Hayrulina, Asal (2024). Comparative Analysis of Mediation in Some Foreign
Countries and Uzbekistan: Potential Questions and Proposals.Janus.net, e-journal of
international relations.VOL 15, Nº.1, May-October, pp. 41-56.
https://doi.org/10.26619/1647-7251.15.1.3
How to cite this article
Shavkatovich, Pirmatov Otabek (2025). Issues of Application of Artificial Intelligence in Civil
Litigation. Janus.net, e-journal of international relations. VOL. 16, Nº. 2, November 2025-April
2026, pp. 506-514. DOI https://doi.org/10.26619/1647-7251.16.2.03
OBSERVARE
Universidade Autónoma de Lisboa
e-ISSN: 1647-7251
VOL. 16, N.º 2
November 2025-April 2026
515
NOTES AND REFLECTIONS
THE ROLE ‘HAWALA’ IN FINANCING TERRORISM AND MONEY
LAUNDERING: THE NEXUS BETWEEN INFORMAL MIGRANT
REMITTANCES IN EUROPE AND FUNDING OF TERRORIST
ORGANIZATIONS
NOZIMA KHOLMATOVA
2672552K@student.gla.ac.uk
School of Politics and Social Science under the Programme: International Security and Strategic
Studies, University of Glasgow, Glasgow (United Kingdom). ORCID ID - 0009-0008-2589-3286
Introduction
As evident from the statements made by former President George W. Bush and former
Secretary of State Colin Powell, money is regarded as vital for the planning and execution
of terrorist activities, underscoring the notion that terrorism cannot persist without
financial support. Comparable sentiments have been echoed by European leaders. In
alignment with his American counterparts, British Chancellor of the Exchequer (later
Prime Minister) Gordon Brown affirmed that ‘the readily available financial resources are
the driving force behind contemporary terrorism’ (UK Treasury, 2001).
Admittedly, finances are a fundamental requirement for the execution of all terrorist
activities, often characterized as an “energy source” or a “lifeblood” for both terrorists
and their organizations. Funds are required for various purposes including the
development of organizational infrastructure, recruitment, propaganda, training,
planning, executing terrorist attacks (Simonovski and Ünsal, 2018), providing retirement
pensions, acquiring weapons, explosives, paying bribes, obtaining communication
equipment, transportation, forging documents, and more (Freeman, 2012:3). This
underscores the necessity for long-term and reliable sources of funding (Simonovski and
Ünsal, 2018). Without financial resources, terrorist groups cannot function effectively as
organizations or carry out attacks. Nonetheless, questions persist: How do different
terrorist groups acquire funds? What are the potential sources and methods of financial
transfer?
Following the September 11, 2001 attacks, there was heightened scrutiny and regulation
of both formal banking and non-banking financial sectors. As a result, terrorists turned
increasingly to alternative value transfer systems like Hawala, or physical methods such
as transporting money, precious stones, or gold. Despite its widespread use, Hawala
lacks robust legal oversight, allowing for anonymous cross-border money transfers that
can facilitate terrorist financing (Klemar and Cindori, 2017:124).
JANUS.NET, e-journal of International Relations
e-ISSN: 1647-7251
VOL 16, Nº. 2
November 2025-April 2026, pp. 515-525
The role ‘Hawala’ in Financing Terrorism and Money Laundering: The Nexus Between Informal
Migrant Remittances in Europe and Funding of Terrorist Organizations
Nozima Kholmatova
516
Despite the widespread use of such money transfer systems by minority ethnic
communities in numerous countries (for instance, Sri Lankan immigrants in Canada
financing the Tamil Tigers through these channels), as well as within ethnic Muslim
immigrant enclaves across Europe, North America, and certain regions of the oil-rich
Middle East (Ballard, 2012), there has been limited academic inquiry into comprehending
the underlying causes and sources devoted to researching hawala funding system
(Klemar and Cindori, 2017:122).
Thus, this essay will fill the gap by seeking to answer the question of how hawala which
is regarded as a traditional form of the money transfer system in some Asian, and East
Asian societies might be linked with terrorist-sponsoring. First, I examine hawala and the
reason for the popularity of this money transfer, and second, in the example of
Somalians, I will try to shed light on how diasporas and migrant minorities may facilitate
money laundering on European soil.
Literature review. Contextualising the argument
The empirical understanding of the hawala system, a traditional informal money transfer
mechanism, is subject to constraints owing to its clandestine nature and the challenges
associated with its study. Despite its significance in facilitating international financial
flows, comprehensive empirical research on the hawala system remains scarce. However,
notable efforts have been made by institutions such as the International Monetary Fund
(IMF, 2005), the World Bank (Passas and Maimbo, 2003), and the Financial Action Task
Force on Money Laundering (FATF, 2013) to shed light on its workings and implications
(UNODC, 2023). These institutions have undertaken various studies and analyses aimed
at elucidating the operational dynamics, regulatory concerns, and potential risks
associated with the hawala system.
Although the majority of FATF recommendations devides financial industry: placement,
layering, and integration as three stages of money laundering, it does not explain the
specific actions of criminals (Trechsel, 1997:14, Graber, 2009:2; Schneider and
Windischbauer, 2008:394). In this context, the World Bank emphasizes the importance
of distinguishing between money laundering and financing of terrorism due to the
divergent paths taken by these funds. When money is utilized for terrorist activities, it
typically follows a traceable route from its origin through a terrorist organization to the
specific cell executing the attack (World Bank, 2009). FATF underscores the significance
of monitoring the “direction and utilization of funds related to terrorism, as this data
informs the necessary enhancements or implementations of controls” (FATF, 2019:39),
aligning with the concept of monitoring terrorist fund movements. In this regard, the
FATF advocates for a “comprehensive assessment” of the various stages constituting
terrorist financing.
Nontheless, criticisms around the researching hawala and money laundry is that the vast
majority of the literature currently in publication concentrates either on efforts to
estimate the volume of money laundering or on institutions and processes designed to
prevent it (Takáts, 2007:4, Bagella et al., 2009:896). And these estimations lack
persuasiveness, as accurately assessing the global volume of crime would require the
ability to quantify worldwide criminal activities—a formidable challenge given the scarcity
JANUS.NET, e-journal of International Relations
e-ISSN: 1647-7251
VOL 16, Nº. 2
November 2025-April 2026, pp. 515-525
The role ‘Hawala’ in Financing Terrorism and Money Laundering: The Nexus Between Informal
Migrant Remittances in Europe and Funding of Terrorist Organizations
Nozima Kholmatova
517
of data and the limited understanding of the true scope of organized crime (Van Duyne,
1994:62, Harvey, 2004:339, Walker, 1999:36). While, there is widespread recognition
that money laundering remains a significant global issue (Schneider, 2008:309).
Consequently, efforts to combat money laundering have thus far fallen short
(Maximilian,2022).
In “The Sources of Terrorist Financing: Theory and Typology” Michael Freeman
distinguished a detailed analysis of the complex interplay between terrorist financing
sources and the strategic considerations of terrorist organizations. Yet, from the first
page Freeman provides specific examples of terrorist groups, such as the Shining Path,
FARC, ELN, ETA, Pakistani Taliban, and others, and their methods of fundraising.
Furthermore, illegal and legal activities as sources of funding for terrorist groups
according to Freeman highlights how these activities can provide reliable income,
enhance legitimacy or undermine state legitimacy, offer geographical flexibility, and
sometimes lead to loss of control or unwanted attention from authorities. Additionally,
Freeman identifies the role of popular support, including charitable donations and
contributions from diaspora communities, in financing terrorist organizations. He explains
how popular support signals legitimacy, provides a relatively easy source of income, but
also poses risks such as loss of control or dependence on economic conditions.
Whereas Nikos Passas and Samuel Munzele Maimbo focuses on the relationship between
Islamic institutions and terrorism financing in Europe. Which underscores the
multifaceted nature of terrorist funding, highlighting both legitimate and illegitimate
channels used by extremist groups. Which elucidates how Islamist terrorist organizations
exploit Islamic institutions, such as mosques and cultural centers, as conduits for
fundraising and recruitment. Passas and Maimbo finding out the Islamic banking system
and its susceptibility to abuse for terrorism financing. Authors explain the structure of
Islamic banks, including the pivotal role of Sharia Committees, and highlights the
potential diversion of ‘Zakat’ funds to terrorist groups. The collaboration between Islamic
banks and international networks of correspondent and offshore banks further
complicates efforts to trace terrorist financing. Finally they underscore the challenges
posed by the lack of common legislation in Europe and the political sensitivity surrounding
investigations into Islamic banks.
Arguably, in the wake of the September 11, 2001 attacks, there has been a growing
acknowledgment, if not consensus, that understanding terrorist financing remains
insufficient. Despite significant efforts in what is often referred to as the “financial war
against terrorism”, many of the assumptions underlying regulatory frameworks are yet
to be adequately tested and proven plausible (Witting, 2011). The book authored by
Timothy Witting offers a comprehensive examination of the existence of a profound
disparity between the expansive regulatory measures implemented to combat terrorist
financing and the actual comprehension of the financial and economic dynamics
employed by terrorist actors. This discrepancy is highlighted by various experts within
the government and the financial sector, who admit to a lack of clarity in identifying the
indicators of terrorist financing. These challenges underscore the necessity for a coherent
and systematic approach to understanding terrorist financing, one that transcends the
conventional focus on uncovering the sources and mechanisms of funding. Moreover
Witting challenges orthodoxies surrounding terrorist finance, advocating for a more
JANUS.NET, e-journal of International Relations
e-ISSN: 1647-7251
VOL 16, Nº. 2
November 2025-April 2026, pp. 515-525
The role ‘Hawala’ in Financing Terrorism and Money Laundering: The Nexus Between Informal
Migrant Remittances in Europe and Funding of Terrorist Organizations
Nozima Kholmatova
518
contextualized understanding that emphasizes the socio-political dimensions of terrorist
actors’ interactions within local and global political economies and social movements. By
reframing terrorist financing as part of broader socio-political dynamics rather than an
isolated financial phenomenon, Witting proposes a more nuanced and analytically
rigorous framework for researching and responding to terrorist finance.
The same is true for the financing of terrorism. However, it hsould be noted that majority
of literature explains that terrorist financing exists, it does not describe exactly how such
criminals operate (Bagella et al., 2009; Graber, 2009; Harvey, 2004; Schneider and
Windischbauer, 2008; Takáts, 2007; Trechsel, 1997; Van Duyne, 1994; Walker, 1999).
Thus the aim of this research is to further elucidate, step by step, how intelligent criminals
use hawala banking to finance terrorist organizations and to use these findings to develop
new prevention mechanisms. This research aims to close the gap described above. In
particular, it will examine how criminals can use the hawala in Europe to launder money
or finance terrorism. This will be achieved by analyzing which concrete steps they would
have to take and which resources they would need to be successful.
The specification of Hawala
Arguably, before contemplating about hawala system and its role in financing terrorism
it worth to define what Hawala means. In doing so, we will refer here to John Cassara
and Saeed Al-Hamiz’s definition, which define Hawala (Arabic: ةلاوح – transfer) also known
as “Hundi” (collect) is an informal financial money transfer system (Al-Hamiz, 2005)
“without money movement” (Cassara, 2006), that exists and operates outside the
“traditional” banking system and financial channels. Hawala does not pay taxes and is
outside of economic regulation. The main component of the hawala system is the network
of hawala brokers (Bowers, 2009:379). They are responsible for facilitating transfers
between countries. Notably, the funds do not physically cross international borders;
rather, the sender provides the funds to a hawaladar-service providers in one country
and receives a confidential code from to another hawaladar to receive the equivalent
amount in local currency. Although, hawala is far from being a recent development. In
fact, this informal method of transferring value has roots in antiquity. Its modern
iterations are also recognized under different names such as Fei ch‘ien in China, Phoe
Kuan in Thailand, and the Black Market Peso Exchange in South America (Klemar and
Cindori, 2017:121).
Admittedly, the expression may be relatively novel in Western vocabulary, but it enjoys
widespread usage in various forms across Africa, Asia and throughout the Middle East.
Thus this paper, acting as a mediator, aims to acquaint (or reacquaint) not only with the
term “hawala” but also with the distinctive security hurdles posed by this concept—an
informal and opaque means of transferring value (Bowers, 2009:379).
The sustained appeal and growing demand for Hawala as an alternative financial
mechanism can be attributed to several key characteristics: Firstly, its inherent secrecy
plays a pivotal role in its enduring allure. This multifaceted appeal directly addresses the
apprehensions of money launderers, providing a shield against disclosure and legal
ramifications, while also alleviating concerns among terrorist financiers regarding
potential disruptions to their activities (Turner, 2011). Secondly, the widespread
JANUS.NET, e-journal of International Relations
e-ISSN: 1647-7251
VOL 16, Nº. 2
November 2025-April 2026, pp. 515-525
The role ‘Hawala’ in Financing Terrorism and Money Laundering: The Nexus Between Informal
Migrant Remittances in Europe and Funding of Terrorist Organizations
Nozima Kholmatova
519
dissemination of Hawala across more than 20 Asian and Pacific nations underscores its
global presence and accessibility (Klemar and Cindori, 2017:122-123). In Afghanistan,
the number of hawaladars is thought to be between 500 and 2,000 (Bolta, 2010) while
fund movement direction covers Kabul, Peshawar, Dubai, and London. The total volume
of transfers via Hawala is estimated to reach several billion dollars annually. Figures from
2011 (Ratha, 2012) indicate that funds transferred through alternative value transfer
systems amounted to $483 billion, with $351 billion of this sum allocated to developing
countries. Moreover, according to Richardson (2011), approximately 80% of start-up
capital for small-scale entrepreneurs was facilitated through Hawala channels. Thirdly,
Hawala transactions primarily benefit immigrant workers residing in developed countries.
This is because many of them initially place their trust in representatives of the Muslim
communities in hosting countries, who, in addition to running small businesses in EU
countries, facilitate these illicit transactions. Finally, a significant portion of migrants may
be residing in the country illagally or with expired visas. In such circumstances, hawala
often becomes the sole method of transferring money without the necessity of confirming
their identity.
Hawala and its nexus to terrorism
Terrorism, having become institutionalized and integrated into the realm of the shadow
market, has established its own distinct financial and economic enclave. It possesses the
capacity for substantial autonomous operations not only within its own national
boundaries but also across international borders. The conduct of illicit activities
necessitates the presence of financial institutions and substantial amout of finances
capable of commiting ‘expensive’ attacks’ (Nagy and Somogyi 2023:22). In this instance,
hawala networks prove to be highly advantageous for terrorist activities (Gordon,
2009:4). This system guarantees an inexpensive, discreet, and effective method for
facilitating frequent money transfers across the globe, making it an attractive option for
terrorists (G. Feiler 2007:35).
Prior to the September 11, 2001 attack, Hawala transactions were not prohibited in the
United States as long as they adhered to US laws and were reported to the Financial
Crimes Enforcement Network (Klemar and Cindori, 2017:123). The push for regulating
these systems arose from global apprehension about their potential for facilitating
terrorism financing. Western entities such as the UN, FATF, and IMF held deep suspicions
toward certain informal value transfer systems (IVTS). These suspicions were further
fueled by US narratives regarding the risks associated with IVTS and accusations of their
involvement in the events of 9/11. Consequently, the 9/11 Commission Report
documented the transfer of Al Qaeda funds through hawala networks in Pakistan and the
Middle East before the September 11 attacks (Cooper and Walker, 20016:1125). As
Keller (2005) investigated, the financing utilized by al-Qaeda in 1998 for orchestrating
terrorist attacks on US embassies in Kenya and Tanzania, revealing hawala's role in
facilitating such activities. Given the high risks associated with physically transporting
large sums of cash, many terrorist financiers prefer the discreet hawala system, which
enables the transfer of billions of euros daily without raising suspicion (Neue Zürcher
Zeitung, 2002).
JANUS.NET, e-journal of International Relations
e-ISSN: 1647-7251
VOL 16, Nº. 2
November 2025-April 2026, pp. 515-525
The role ‘Hawala’ in Financing Terrorism and Money Laundering: The Nexus Between Informal
Migrant Remittances in Europe and Funding of Terrorist Organizations
Nozima Kholmatova
520
An illustration of Hawala's utilization in support of terrorist activities is exemplified in the
transcripts from the trial of Muhammed al-Owahali, an al-Qaeda member serving a life
sentence for his involvement in the 1998 U.S. embassy bombing in Nairobi, reveal that
funding for the attack was channeled through a hawala office located in the infamous
Easleigh district of the city, known for its largely Somali population. Similarly, according
to the charges against Faisal Shahzad, the Pakistani American who attempted to detonate
a bomb-laden SUV in New York's Times Square in May 2010, hawala transfers were
utilized to finance the plot (J. Cassara and Ch. Poncy, 2015:68). Shahzad allegedly
received around $12,000 from his handlers in Pakistan, specifically from the Tehrik-e-
Taliban, to execute the attack (CBS News, 2010).
Another the most notable instance involves the exposure of a vast covert hawala network
in Spain, comprising 300 hawaladars operating clandestine offices across Spanish cities,
notably within 250 butcher shops, grocery stores etc., This network handled the finances
of over 150,000 Muslims, many of whom were suspected to be receiving social welfare
benefits from the Spanish state, without any legal oversight. Furthermore, the network
facilitated the payment of salaries to jihadists in Syria, providing approximately $800 for
single individuals and $1,200 for married individuals (Klemar and Cindori, 2017:126).
These operations were conducted from concealed and anonymous Hawala stations,
categorized as modern Hawala due to the provision of value transfer services from
butcher shops, grocery stores, etc. (Ranstorp, 2016).
Multiple studies have shed light on this issue (Nagy and Somogyi 2023:23). Rowald
(2014) et al. highlight that al-Qaeda operates an extensive financial network comprising
companies and bank accounts, while also relying on hawala for fund transfers. Arianti
(2020) documents cases where the Arakan Rohingya Salvation Army in Myanmar
distributed money through hawala. Similarly, the Katibat Imam Al-Bukhari group
reportedly obtained funds from its affiliates through hawala channels (Soliev, 2019:17).
The Khalistan Liberation Force funded its activities through criminal means in India,
receiving financial support from the Sikh diaspora in Canada and the United Kingdom via
hawala (Fair, 2004). Furthermore, hawala is also widely used by the Islamic State to
avoid being tracked down for official banking transactions (Almohamad, 2021).
In summary, these studies underscore the utilization of hawala by terrorist organizations,
elucidate its role in financing terrorism, and highlight the challenges encountered by law
enforcement agencies.
Funding terrorism: the case of Somalian Al-Shaab Terrorist Organisation
Once Osama bin Laden stated that Jihadists aware of the vulerabilities ‘cracks’ in the
Western financial system. And unofficial payments, far from being mere fissures,
represent vast chasms akin to the Grand Canyon. It is evident that beyond their
legitimate purpose of transferring wages, they are also exploited by criminal and terrorist
groups (Cassara, 2017:4). Islamic charitable organizations are not exception to this list
and are heavily involved in funding terrorism.
According to Daniel Glaser (2011), the US Assistant Secretary of State for Terrorism
Financing, charities—which are widely publicized and encouraged among immigrants—
JANUS.NET, e-journal of International Relations
e-ISSN: 1647-7251
VOL 16, Nº. 2
November 2025-April 2026, pp. 515-525
The role ‘Hawala’ in Financing Terrorism and Money Laundering: The Nexus Between Informal
Migrant Remittances in Europe and Funding of Terrorist Organizations
Nozima Kholmatova
521
are being used by terrorists as a means of "raising, moving, and utilizing funds." The
charities are better suited to offer logistical cover for the transfer of funds and have
evolved into a front for radicalization and brainwashing. Admittedly, there are diverse
avenues through which terrorist funds flow. As outlined in this paper, tracing terrorist
financing poses challenges, because the role of diaspora and proliferation of Islamic
charities in various contries, some of which harbor a strong radical element. These funds
are often channeled through the international hawala network (V.Chadha, 2014:40).
One should be noted that Somalia stands as one of the world's economies highly reliant
on remittances (Cockyne and Shetret, 2012:2). Within Somalia, xawilaad (hawala)
serves as the predominant means for transferring money into, out of, but also recognized
as the most cost-effective, straightforward, and secure method for these transactions
(Witting, 2011:121). With the absence of traditional banking institutions, the hawala
system serves as the sole financial transfer mechanism in Somalia, facilitating family
support, investments, and business transactions. Studies conducted by the United
Nations Development Programme (UNDP) have revealed that 26 percent of Somalia's
entire population relies entirely on transfers, while up to 66 percent depend on it for at
least half of their basic needs (Houssein 2005:89).
However, hawala in Somalia serves not only as an informal money transfer system but
also as a means of fostering cross-clan relationships, often involving specific clan
members. Bigger xawilad businesses, like Dahabshiil, Amal, and the now-defunct al-
Barakaat have strategically expanded their services across clan lines, operating within
the framework of Sharia (Islamic law) and xeer (Somali customary law). This cross-clan,
pan-Somali approach, rooted in religion and culture, closely mirrors a core ideological
belief of al-Shabaab, emphasizing the significance of Islam (Witting 2011:122).
Al-Shabaab, also referred to as the Somalian Youth Mujahedeen Movement, is a Sunni
Islamist extremist group with the goal of expelling foreign, particularly Ethiopian, forces
from Somalia and implementing Islamic law in the nation. Linked with al-Qa’ida and
recognized as a terrorist organization by multiple countries, emerged as a potent and
radical faction within the Islamic Courts Union (ICU) movement, which gained substantial
support among Somalis in southern and south-central Somalia in early 2006
(WashingtonDC, 2007). The financing of this group partly relies on monetary donations
from Somali diaspora communities situated in Europe, North America, Kenya, and the
Middle East. In Scandinavia, for instance, individuals connected to Al-Shabaaab
reportedly seek contributions from member of Somali communities in Odense,
Copenhagen, and Malmö, many of whom hail from the southern Somali regions where
al-Shabaab holds influence (Witting 2011:123). Investigators from the European Union
claim that this kind of fundraising usually centers on “older, manipulative Islamic
extremists” who can persuade people who might be sympathetic to the cause—including
attendees of family gatherings, mosques, public gatherings, and charity events—to
donate to al-Shabaab. These individuals reportedly do this by presenting stories that
affirm that money given to al-Shabaab not only satisfies the Islamic obligation to give
zakat (madatory donation), but also that the funds will be used to fight against Ethiopia,
the Somali Transitional Federal Government (TFG), and Western states, including the
United States (Washington DC, 2010).
JANUS.NET, e-journal of International Relations
e-ISSN: 1647-7251
VOL 16, Nº. 2
November 2025-April 2026, pp. 515-525
The role ‘Hawala’ in Financing Terrorism and Money Laundering: The Nexus Between Informal
Migrant Remittances in Europe and Funding of Terrorist Organizations
Nozima Kholmatova
522
In this way, through the UK-based Somali community, Al-Shabaab has managed to
secure substantial funding, estimated to be in tens of thousands of pounds, given their
population size of around 250,000 (Shay, 2021). While some British Somalis voluntarily
contribute to the terrorist organization, a portion of the money sent back to relatives in
Somalia is diverted by extremists. Additionally, Muslims often donate to Islamic charities,
typically through cash transactions via hawala (Nagy and Somogyi 2023:24).There's a
strong likelihood that some of these donations to Islamic charities have inadvertently
financed terrorism, unbeknownst to the devout immigrant workers (Patel, 2017).
Conclusion
The analysis of hawala, an informal yet pervasive money transfer system, reveals its role
as a conduit for terrorist financing. Despite being traditionally associated with legitimate
remittances and cross-border transactions, hawala has increasingly been exploited by
terrorist organizations due to its secrecy and accessibility. Moreover, the examination of
specific case studies, such as the Somali diaspora's contribution to funding Al-Shabaab,
underscores the global reach and impact of terrorist financing networks. By elucidating
these connections, this work contributes to a deeper understanding of how terrorist
organizations exploit informal financial systems and diaspora communities to sustain
their operations. This study not only identifies gaps in existing research but also proposes
avenues for future investigation. By emphasizing the need for nuanced, context-specific
approaches to understanding terrorist financing, it advocates for a shift away from
conventional frameworks towards more holistic and interdisciplinary methodologies. Due
to word limit of this essay, it has some limitations and requires further research on this
issue. In essence, this work serves as a critical contribution to the field of
counterterrorism by illuminating the evolving dynamics of terrorist financing
mechanisms.
References
Al-Hamiz,S. (2005). Regulatory Frameworks For Hawala and Other Remittance Systems.
Washington, D.C: Monetary and Financial Systems Dept., International Monetary Fund,
Print.
Almohamad,S. (2021/3.). Not a Storm in a Teacup: The Islamic State after the Caliphate.
German Institue for Global and Area Studies (GIGA).
Arianti,V., et al. (2022). Southeast Asia: Indonesia, Philippines, Malaysia, Myanmar,
Thailand, Singapore. Counter Terrorist Trends and Analyses, vol. 14, no. 1, pp. 11–54.
JSTOR, https://www.jstor.org/stable/48640763. Accessed 12 Mar. 2024
Bowers, Ch.B. (2009). Hawala, Money Laundering, and Terrorism Finance: Mirco-Lending
as an End to Illicit Remittance, Vol. 37 Denv. J. Int'l L. & Pol'y 379.
Bolta,D. (2010). “Prevention of terrorist financing, Police security”, Croatia, vol. 19. No.4,
pp. 424-425.
JANUS.NET, e-journal of International Relations
e-ISSN: 1647-7251
VOL 16, Nº. 2
November 2025-April 2026, pp. 515-525
The role ‘Hawala’ in Financing Terrorism and Money Laundering: The Nexus Between Informal
Migrant Remittances in Europe and Funding of Terrorist Organizations
Nozima Kholmatova
523
Biersteker, T.J., & Eckert, S.E. (Eds.)., (2007). chapter 8. Passes. N, Maimbo, S.
“Countering the Financing of Terrorism” (1st ed.). Routledge.
https://doi.org/10.4324/9780203944639
Cassara,J.A. Poncy, Ch. (2015). “Trade-Based Money Laundering” The next Frontier in
International Money Laundering Enforcement. Wiley pp.265.
Cassara,J.A.( 2017). “Managing Terrorism Financing Risk in Remittances and Money
Transfers”, Center on Sanctions and Illicit Finance FDD, Washington DC,
https://financialservices.house.gov/uploadedfiles/hhrg-115-ba01-wstate-jcassara-
20170718.pdf
Cassara, J.A. (2006). “Hide&Seek Intelligence, Law Enforcement, and the Stalled War on
Terrorist Finance”. Washington, D.C: Potomac Books, Inc. p. 264.
Chadha,V. (2014). “Lifeblood of Terrorism. Countering Terrorism Finance in India”.
Bloomsbury India, pp. 272.
Cockyne, J., and Shetret, L. (2012). “Capitalizing on Trust: Harnessing Somali Remittances
for Counterterrorism, Human Rights and State Building”. Global Center on Cooperative
Security, JSTOR, http://www.jstor.org/stable/resrep20273. Accessed 29 Mar. 2024.
Cooper,K, Clive, W. (2016) “Security From Terrorism Financing: Models of Delivery
Applied to Informal Value Transfer Systems”. The British Journal of Criminology, vol. 56,
no. 6, pp. 1125–45. JSTOR, http://www.jstor.org/stable/44074914. Accessed 12 Mar.
2024.
Fair,C.Ch., (2004). “Urban Battle Fields of South Asia: Lessons Learned from Sri Lanka,
India, and Pakistan”, RAND Corporation, MG-210-A.
https://www.rand.org/pubs/monographs/MG210.html
Fabian, M, Wittmann,Ch. (2022). “The Abuse of Hawala Banking for Terrorist Financing
in German-Speaking Countries”. Journal of Money Laundering Control, Emerald Group
Publishing Limited, vol. 26(5), pages 1016-1026.
Fabian, M. (2018). “Real Esate Money Laundering in Austria, Germany, Liechtenstein and
Switzerland”. Journal of Money Laundering Control, Emerald Group Publishing Limited,
vol. 21(3), pages pages 370-375.
Feiler, G. (2007). “Sources of Islamic Terror Funding Mechanisms” The Globalization of
Terror Funding, Begin-Sadat Center for Strategic Studies, pp. 28–42. JSTOR,
http://www.jstor.org/stable/resrep04720.6. Accessed 11 Mar. 2024.
Freeman, M. (2012), “Financing Terrorism Case Studies” (1st ed.), London. Routledge.
https://doi.org/10.4324/9781315582429
FATF Report (October 2013). “The Role of Hawala and Other Similar Service Providers in
Money Laundering and Terrorist Financing” Paris, France. https://www.fatf-
gafi.org/content/dam/fatf-gafi/reports/Role-of-hawala-and-similar-in-ml-
tf.pdf.coredownload.pdf
Gordon, S. (2009). “Regionalism and Cross-Border Cooperation against Crime and
Terrorism in the Asia-Pacific.” Security Challenges, vol. 5, no. 4, pp. 75–102. JSTOR,
http://www.jstor.org/stable/26460070. Accessed 11 Mar. 2024.
JANUS.NET, e-journal of International Relations
e-ISSN: 1647-7251
VOL 16, Nº. 2
November 2025-April 2026, pp. 515-525
The role ‘Hawala’ in Financing Terrorism and Money Laundering: The Nexus Between Informal
Migrant Remittances in Europe and Funding of Terrorist Organizations
Nozima Kholmatova
524
Graber,C. (2009). “Das Neue GwG: Gesetzesausgabe Mit Englischer bersetzung,
Ausfhrungserlassen Und Anmerkungen”, Schulthess verlag, Zrich pp. 454.
Houssein, Mohamed.D. (11 Mar. 2024). “11. Somalia: The Experience of Hawala
Receiving Countries”. Regulatory Frameworks for Hawala and Other Remittance
Systems. USA: International Monetary Fund, 2005.
https://doi.org/10.5089/9781589064232.072.ch011. Web.
Jost, P.M., Sandhu, H.S. (2000). “The Hawala Alternative Remittance System and its Role
in Money Laundering”, Interpol General Secretariat, France, pp. 17.
Klemar, T., Cindori,S. (2017). “Hawala’s Appeal in Terrorism Financing”. International
Conference: Security Concepts and Plocies – New Generation of Risks and Thereats.
Vol.1. Macedonia, Skopje
Kreating, J. (May 2011). “Who Gets the Most Remittances?” Foreign Policy.com,
https://foreignpolicy.com/2011/05/09/who-gets-the-most-remittances/ (Accessed:
01.03.2024)
Nagy, R. and Somogyi, T. (2023). “Formal banking and financial inclusion to weaken
hawala and severe counterterrorism”. Military National Security Service, Issue 2,
Budapest, pp. 19.ResearchGate,
https://www.researchgate.net/publication/376643058_Formal_banking_and_financial_i
nclusion_to_weaken_hawala_and_serve_counter-terrorism/citations.
Patel, I. (2017). “Emergence of Institutional Islamophobia: The Case of the Charity
Commission of England and Wales”. State Crime Journal. ReOrient.
Richardson, J. (2011). “The Somali Diaspora a Key Counterterrorism Ally”, CTC Sentinel,
USA, vol.4, issue 7. https://ctc.westpoint.edu/the-somali-diaspora-a-key-
counterterrorism-ally/ (Accessed: 11.03.2024)
Ratha, D. (2012). “Remittances: Funds for the Folks Back Home”, International Monetary
Fund, USA, pp. 1. https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/fandd/issues/Series/Back-to-
Basics/Remittances (Accessed: 11.03.2024)
Richards, J.R. (1999). “Transnational Criminal Organizations, Cybercrime, and Money
Laundering”, CRC Press LLC, USA, pp. 80.
Rowland, J., Rice,M., Shenoi,S. et al. (2014). “Whither cyberpower?”. International
Journal of Critical Infrastructure Protection. Elsevier, vol. 7, issue 2, pages 124-137.
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S1874548214000225, Accessed
1 Mar.2024
Soliev, N. (2019). “Central Asia: Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan,
Uzbekistan.” Counter Terrorist Trends and Analyses, vol. 11, no. 1, pp. 65–70. JSTOR,
https://www.jstor.org/stable/26568579. Accessed 12 Mar. 2024.
Shay, Sh. ( 2021). “Al-Shaab from local to regional and global terror threat”. Journal of
Central and Eastern European African Studies. Vol.1 No3.
Simonovski, I., (2018). Ünsal, Z., E. “Countering the Financing of Terrorism in the
International Community”. Berlin, Germany: Peter Lang Verlag. Retrieved Mar 12, 2024,
from 10.3726/b14508
JANUS.NET, e-journal of International Relations
e-ISSN: 1647-7251
VOL 16, Nº. 2
November 2025-April 2026, pp. 515-525
The role ‘Hawala’ in Financing Terrorism and Money Laundering: The Nexus Between Informal
Migrant Remittances in Europe and Funding of Terrorist Organizations
Nozima Kholmatova
525
Turner, J.E. (2011). “Money Laundering Prevention – Deterring, Detecting, And Resolving
Financial Fraud”, John Wiley & Sons, Inc., New Jersey, pp. 137.
Trechsel, S. (1997). “Geldwscherei: Prvention Und Massnahmen Zur Bekmpfung”,
Schulthess Polygraphischer Verlag, Zrich.
UNODC, (2023). The Hawala System: Its operations and misuse by opiate traffickers and
migrant smugglers.
U.S. Department of the Treasury, (January 28, 2010). Assistant Secretary for Terrorist
Financing David S. Cohen Remarks on Terrorist Financing before the Council on Foreign
Relations as Prepared for Delivery, Press Release, Washington DC.
https://home.treasury.gov/ (Accessed: 25.02.2024)
Witting, T. (2011). “Understanding Terrorist Finance” Palgrave and Macmillan London,
pp. XI, 238.
How to cite this article
Kholmatova, Nozima (2025). The role ‘Hawala’ in Financing Terrorism and Money Laundering: The
Nexus Between Informal Migrant Remittances in Europe and Funding of Terrorist Organizations.
Janus.net, e-journal of international relations. VOL. 16, Nº. 2, November 2025-April 2026, pp. 515-
525. DOI https://doi.org/10.26619/1647-7251.16.2.04
OBSERVARE
Universidade Autónoma de Lisboa
e-ISSN: 1647-7251
VOL. 16, N.º 2
novembro 2025-abril 2026
526
RECENSÃO CRÍTICA
MORTÁGUA, JOANA; CASTELLO BRANCO, MARIA E PERALTA, SUSANA
(2024). REFLEXÕES SOBRE A LIBERDADE – IDENTIDADES E FAMÍLIAS.
1.ª EDIÇÃO, AGOSTO DE 2024. ALFRAGIDE: OFICINA DO LIVRO.
ISBN: 978-989-581-244-8
CAROLINA QUERIDO
carolinaquerido98@gmail.com
Estudante de Doutoramento em Ciência Política, NOVA FCSH (Portugal); Observatório Político.
ORCID: 0009-0006-0442-9885 / CIÊNCIA ID: 7A1A-B802-4DF7
Reflexões sobre reflexões: uma análise do debate do género, identidades
e diversidade
Para falar sobre a obra Reflexões sobre a Liberdade – Identidades e famílias (2024) é
necessário mencionar a obra Identidade e Família: Entre a consistência da tradição e as
exigências da modernidade (2024). Após a sua célebre apresentação na Livraria Buchholz
pelo antigo primeiro-ministro Pedro Passos Coelho, o Identidade e Família (2024) ganhou
relevância nacional. De facto, o teor dos textos que compõem esta obra, associados às
questões do combate de uma “ideologia de género”, a “cultura de morte” e a defesa da
“família tradicional”, reacenderam o debate mediático sobre questões de género,
identidade e diversidade. Simultaneamente, com a tentativa de retrocesso em direitos
sociais na agenda de novas formações populistas de direita radical, este debate torna-se
cada vez mais relevante não só para a Ciência Política como para a sociedade civil.
Quanto à obra em análise, Reflexões sobre a Liberdade (2024), as três coordenadoras –
Joana Mortágua, Maria Castello Branco e Susana Peralta – sublinham, logo na sua
introdução, que não deverá ser vista como uma “resposta” ou um “ataque” ao Identidade
e Família (2024). Joana Mortágua, deputada eleita pelo Bloco de Esquerda, Maria Castello
Branco, integrante do podcast “Lei da Paridade” e candidata pelas eleições legislativas e
europeias em 2019 pela Iniciativa Liberal, Susana Peralta, Professora na NOVA SBE e
colunista pelo Público, apresentam-se como três mulheres com idades, percursos e
opiniões diferentes, unidas na defesa da diversidade, liberdade e democracia. De facto,
o objetivo maior desta obra é, como notado pelas coordenadoras: “Antes nos
inscrevemos numa saudável dialética de acolhimento da diversidade de projetos de vida
numa democracia liberal e da centralidade de tal desígnio na construção de uma melhor
democracia.” (p. 11)
Esta obra é composta por vinte artigos por vinte autores diferentes, em que se trata uma
ou mais das seguintes questões: 1) grupos discriminados (mulheres, pessoas
racializadas, identidade de género, orientação sexual); 2) escolhas políticas relacionadas
JANUS.NET, e-journal of International Relations
e-ISSN: 1647-7251
VOL 16, Nº. 2
Novembro 2025-abril 2026, pp. 526-529
Mortágua, Joana; Castello Branco, Maria e Peralta, Susana (2024). Reflexões sobre a Liberdade
– Identidades e famílias. 1.ª edição, agosto de 2024. Alfragide: Oficina do Livro.
ISBN: 978-989-581-244-8
Carolina Querido
527
a valores profundos (como o aborto, eutanásia ou a parentalidade); 3) um testemunho
pessoal sobre o tema.
A secção inicial é relativa a grupos e identidades discriminados, juntando diversos artigos
sobre as várias formas de discriminação e dos diversos grupos (incluindo-se mulheres,
pessoas racializadas, a identidade de género, a orientação sexual). A multiplicidade de
identidades no seio da sociedade, e o constante ataque à sua existência, expressam-se
de formas diferentes, mas unem-se num mesmo ponto: na posição de desvantagem
perante o tipificado como “normal” ou “natural”, em contraste com o marginal, o
minoritário, o diferente.
No que diz respeito à questão de identidade de pessoas racializadas, Van Dunem refere
como a sua identidade enquanto criança estava apenas agregada ao género e idade, até
que: “(...) chegou um momento em que tive de franquear a barreira da porta, de ouvir
os gritos do mundo e, no meio deles, surgiu, pesada e densa, a palavra: ‘preto’.” (p. 93)
De facto, as identidades são também tema nos textos de Henrique França – mencionando
o largo espectro de identidades entre homens, mulheres, cis e trans, para nos falar de
liberdade (p. 107) – e de Hilda de Paulo, sobre a visão de cirurgiões estéticos, que
assinaram prefácios, em obras de pessoas trans, “Esses textos são carregados de um
viés patologizante sobre a transgeneridade, ainda a tratar o género de uma forma bem
essencialista, (...) caso determinada pessoa se entenda como mulher, não possuindo
essa conformação, poderá somente obtê-la por meio de intervenções cirúrgicas.” (p. 111)
Outro aspeto, largamente relacionado com a questão da identidade, é sublinhado no
vasto conjunto de textos sobre políticas sociais e desigualdades. No conjunto de artigos
sobre esta temática, existe um foco específico na questão da mulher. Deste modo, estes
textos abordam as diferentes facetas da discriminação e desigualdade da mulher.
Incluem-se os contributos de: Carla Castro, com a liberdade individual e as existentes
desigualdades de género “O Estado social foi concebido em torno do ‘homem ganha-pão’
e da ‘mulher dona de casa’.” (p. 39), Catarina Furtado, sobre a realidade da mulher em
Portugal e em outras geografias, concluindo que, “as raparigas e mulheres são quem
mais sofre no mundo inteiro.” (p. 41-42), Catarina Marques Rodrigues, que propõe olhar
para um problema contemporâneo – a crise de habitação – numa perspetiva de género
e da (falta) de independência das mulheres (p. 53), de Fernanda Câncio e Maria Fernanda
Câncio, no silenciamento histórico das mulheres em “Podemos aliás ainda hoje ler que
‘nunca se queixavam’.” (p. 91), João Maria Jonet e a polarização política e no mercado
laboral relativamente às mulheres, Maria Castello Branco a ideia da mulher como o outro
e como parte “A mulher existe porque tem uma vulva; o homem, por outro lado, é
representado como um indivíduo na sua totalidade, com um corpo, olhos e, no caso do
rei, uma coroa.” (p. 157) e Leonor Beleza, no progresso dos direitos até hoje, e a
importante caminhada futura por mais direitos “Por muito que nos possamos queixar das
partes ainda vazias do copo, não há comparação entre a relevância pública dos nossos
direitos hoje e na altura em que nasci.” (p. 174)
Poder-se-á também identificar uma segunda secção, onde se incluem os artigos que
exploram temáticas relativas a escolhas políticas assentes em valores pessoais
profundos. O aborto, a eutanásia, mas também a educação e a família são alguns dos
JANUS.NET, e-journal of International Relations
e-ISSN: 1647-7251
VOL 16, Nº. 2
Novembro 2025-abril 2026, pp. 526-529
Mortágua, Joana; Castello Branco, Maria e Peralta, Susana (2024). Reflexões sobre a Liberdade
– Identidades e famílias. 1.ª edição, agosto de 2024. Alfragide: Oficina do Livro.
ISBN: 978-989-581-244-8
Carolina Querido
528
aspetos aqui explorados. Assim, estes temas partilham o seu forte valor normativo,
crítico tanto no debate político e como no seio da sociedade civil.
Para Susana Peralta, o aborto é o assunto chave, num artigo com testemunho pessoal,
sublinha “As consequências – das do aborto clandestino às da gravidez não desejada –
são sempre mais prováveis nas mulheres de menores rendimentos, (...) Assim era em
Portugal antes de 2007: quem podia ia a Espanha tratar do assunto.” (p. 184) Já para
Teresa Violante, o foco é na questão da objeção de consciência, em que se “(...) coloca
os profissionais na posição de juízes morais do comportamento das pessoas grávidas.”
(p. 209) Paralelamente, a eutanásia é o outro grande tema relacionado com as escolhas
políticas valorativas. No artigo de André Coelho Lima, com três tipos de argumento
(jurídico, político e filosófico) o autor apresenta-se como um defensor da não ingerência
na vida de outrem, afirmando a sua incredulidade sobre defender-se a defesa da vida do
próprio que, detentor desse direito, quer terminá-la. (p. 20) Outro ângulo de análise
surge no artigo de Isabel Moreira, defendendo tratar-se de uma matéria da competência
da Assembleia da República, menciona também algumas incongruências no debate, em
que: “Também houve tentativas de referendar o final da vida de pessoas. Os que
recusaram inicialmente o referendo com base na sua fé, dizendo que a vida não se
referenda, depressa mudaram de opinião, já que a lei fora aprovada.” (p. 121)
Por fim, no conjunto de contributos que se centram no conceito de família, encontramos
Daniel Oliveira, que assinala a variedade de configurações familiares, pelo que “Não
quero convencer ninguém das virtudes do meu modelo de família, até porque não o
tenho.” (p. 67). Fabíola Cardoso refere também que “Quebrar o conservadorismo com
que crescemos, que nos foi transmitido em cada colher de sopa, em cada ida à casa da
tia, é um processo emancipatório duro. Especialmente para as mulheres, eternamente
entre a puta e a santa.” (p. 70), fazendo referência à família, à mulher e à criança que
cresce nessa família. Particularmente sobre a diversidade de famílias, esta questão
advém também destas novas formações familiares, uma evolução do conceito de família
nas sociedades contemporâneas. A introdução do divórcio, a legalização do aborto, o
casamento e adoção por pessoas do mesmo sexo, por um lado, mas também a introdução
das mulheres na força laboral, alteraram estruturalmente o conceito de família – não
existindo, no entanto, uma irreversibilidade dos direitos sociais conquistados. Os autores
mencionam algumas destas questões, sendo que para Pedro Strecht, “A diversidade da
organização das famílias é atualmente indiscutível. (...) É a evolução da realidade
psicossocial que o demonstra de forma clara, levando a que seja impossível não só
compreendê-la como, obviamente, aceitá-la.” (p. 175) Em relação à parentalidade, a
paridade é o tema principal no artigo de Leonor Caldeira, em que o padrão português se
define como “(...) pai e mãe trabalham a tempo inteiro, mas é à mãe que cabe a maior
parte das tarefas domésticas e, em cima disso, é ainda ela a pessoa que domina as
questões da saúde familiar: (...)” (p. 149) Sobre as crianças e a educação, Joana
Mortágua fala da disciplina de Educação para a Cidadania e o Desenvolvimento,
sublinhando a sua posição sobre a identidade, individualidade, liberdade e autonomia das
crianças, que deverão no contexto escolar desenvolver-se como cidadãos completos,
saudáveis e livres. (p. 131) Por último, Teresa Leal Coelho fala sobre a democracia, a
família e a liberdade individual e conclui: “Uma sociedade democrática, integrada num
Estado de direito democrático, reconhece a dignidade humana como atributo de todos os
JANUS.NET, e-journal of International Relations
e-ISSN: 1647-7251
VOL 16, Nº. 2
Novembro 2025-abril 2026, pp. 526-529
Mortágua, Joana; Castello Branco, Maria e Peralta, Susana (2024). Reflexões sobre a Liberdade
– Identidades e famílias. 1.ª edição, agosto de 2024. Alfragide: Oficina do Livro.
ISBN: 978-989-581-244-8
Carolina Querido
529
seres humanos, respeita a diferença, acolhe os valores da autonomia, da liberdade e da
identidade de cada um.” (p. 197)
Em suma, considerando que se trata de um compêndio de diversos artigos sem uma
ordem específica ou obrigatória à leitura, esta obra pretende juntar diversos contributos
dos diferentes pontos do espectro político. Questões sobre grupos historicamente
discriminados, mais ou menos esquecidos pela história (pessoas racializadas, as
diferentes identidades de género e orientações sexuais, as mulheres), assim como
escolhas políticas valorativas (o aborto, a eutanásia, a família, a parentalidade, a
educação, a liberdade) são vistas através de diversos prismas, pelos diferentes autores,
com pontos de vista e de partida distintos. É necessário sublinhar que, apesar de os
textos serem contidos em si mesmos, existe um elo de ligação: esta mesma ideia de que
não existe uma identidade única e uma só configuração possível para a família. Não
sendo uma obra que ataca o Identidade e Família (2024), nasce para a desconstruir e às
ideias nela preconizadas. O Reflexões sobre a Liberdade – Identidades e famílias (2024)
é uma obra que demonstra que independentemente da posição ideológica de cada um,
é possível reunir um grupo heterogéneo de autores que lutam pela defesa da igualdade
na diversidade. Publicada no ano em que se celebram os 50 anos da democracia
portuguesa, esta obra espelha uma verdadeira diversidade entre pares assim como a
capacidade de contribuir para o diálogo democrático.
Como citar esta recensão crítica
Querido, Carolina (2025). Mortágua, Joana; Castello Branco, Maria e Peralta, Susana (2024).
Reflexões sobre a Liberdade – Identidades e famílias. 1.ª edição, agosto de 2024. Alfragide: Oficina
do Livro. ISBN: 978-989-581-244-8. Janus.net, e-journal of international relations. VOL. 16, Nº.
1, novembro 2025-abril 2026, pp. 526-529. DOI https://doi.org/10.26619/1647-7251.16.01.2