OBSERVARE

Universidade Autónoma de Lisboa

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NOTES AND REFLECTIONS

TURKEY-CYPRUS: PROMETHEUS UNBOUND OR THE CATHARSIS OF

AFRODITE?

CHRISTIAN ILCUS

director@ilcus.eu

He studied political science at Århus University and holds a master’s degree in European political-

administrative studies from the College of Europe. He graduated with a thesis on a

diplomatic case study of the EU’s foreign policy vis-à-vis Turkey and the Mediterranean

under Knud-Erik Jørgensen. He trained in the Royal Danish Embassy in Tel Aviv, having

Mehdi Mozafarri as a supervisor. He also taught in the European Commission’s DG Relex,

the Romania Desk, where he oversaw a Border Management Program for the Romanian

Frontier police. Christian Ilcus runs an NFP policy consultancy (Denmark). His research

interests are European Foreign Affairs and Middle Eastern affairs and Chinese Foreign

Policy. He has published a review article on Israeli domestic policy in Danish and a book

on the evolution of the European painting Kunsten at Se. In 2022, he published an article

on an EU Strategy for Reform of the UNSC and was finishing another article on a

Gesamtkonzept for EU’s Strategic Partnerships. In addition, he authorizes an annotated

bibliography on China: International Relations, Art and Philosophy.

We know the origin of the unit dealing with external relations of the European

Commission’s General Secretariat is Turkey’s application for membership in the Customs

Union in 1959. The proclamation of the Republic of Cyprus as an independent republic

impacted the development of the relationship between the EEC and Turkey (Katselli,

2006). The Ankara Agreement’s preamble “resolved to preserve and strengthen peace

and liberty by the joint pursuit of the ideals underlying the Treaty establishing the

European Economic Community.” Alain Peyrefitte reports that De Gaulle examined the

Ankara Association agreement with Turkey from a long-term strategic perspective in the

context of the wall’s fall and tended to subsume the EEC under a French confederalist

design on Europe

. This is the likely origin of the provision in the 1964 agreement: the

EU does not exclude the possibility of Turkey acceding the European Communities

. Thus,

Franco-German interests and security strategies were at stake from the outset of

Turkey’s relationship with Europe. From the EUI archives, it transpires there were

concerns among the EC member states about the state of development of Turkey and

the implications for the EU policies and budget of Turkish accession to the EEC. These

concerns are also reflected in the Ankara agreement. This was not going to change. The

interrelationship between the Franco-German structured rivalry and European integration

Peyrefitte (1994).

Qouted in Reiners (2021).

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e-ISSN: 1647-7251

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Notes and Reflections

Turkey-Cyprus: Prometheus Unbound or The Catharsis of Afrodite?

Christian Ilcus

336

is starting to be studied systematically and in more detail

. It is not unlikely that the

timing of adopting the Elysée-treaty forging the Bonn-Paris axis followed the failure of

negotiations linked to the German question

. It was subsequently resolved as part of NPT

negotiations that the German quest for atomic parity would unfold within a European

framework through the note submitted by Willy Brandt to the NPT conference.

What has

been lacking is a study into the relationship between EU Foreign Policy-making, the

Structured Franco-German rivalry, and European law.

As Europe responds to threats from the USA, Russia, and China, European civilization

must evolve to thrive. This requires wise decision-making, the development of a vision,

and that our beloved leaders are held accountable to achieve a new synthesis in Europe’s

long history. None wants to return to a Concert of Europe or a modified balance of power.

Instead, we are creating something “new” and “right” in Europe. This is not only a conflict

in Cyprus that Turkish scholars have readily recognized without specifying the factors

involved in moving from conflict management to conflict solution

. In this piece, I argue

that a solution to the Cyprus conflict flows from understanding and addressing the

strategic stakes the central actors attribute to the grand bargain between Turkey and the

EU combined with party political competition, financial aspects, and negotiators’ skills.

An integrated political and economic approach is to be adopted, joined with a well-

thought-out strategic plan for the achievement of the political goals of the European

integration project. Care needs to be exercised at several levels to succeed. This also

involves translating academic projects into organizational attributes and better

communication from the EU.

I ask: How to proceed between Turkey and the EU? How to advance the EU-Turkey

relationship? What are Europe’s interests? In response to the EU Commission’s 2021

enlargement report, the European Parliament urged the European institutions to

communicate consistently between themselves vis-à-vis Turkey

. So what are the

objectives the EU is pursuing vis-à-vis Turkey? First, the EU wants to prevent the

organization of an alternative Europe between Turkey and Russia

. Second, the EU core

intends to adopt a constitutional treaty

. Third, the EU is haltingly pursuing defense

integration

. Fourth, a compromise between France’s critical engagement with

Germany

and Germany’s asymmetrical federalization of Europe is sought

. Fifth, the

EU pursues value-based foreign policy

. These objectives are complex and require

internal and external realignment. Thus, strategic patience is advised. Sixth, Turkey’s

membership application will continue to be assessed on its own merits and on an equal

basis with the other candidate countries.

For instance, EU-Turkey could adopt a joint

action plan on good governance, human rights, and the rule of law in conjunction with

Krotz & Schild (2015).

Trachtenberg (1999).

William Burr (2018)

Dalay (2021) & Ker-Lindsay (2012)

Report on the 2021 European Commission Report on Turkey [online],

https://www.europarl.europa.eu/doceo/document/A-9-2022-0149_EN.html

Keltikli (2019) & Facon (2022)

Teker (2021)

Quille (2006), Merand, Foucault & Irondelle (2008), Mérand & Angers (2013) Howorth (2014).

Eilstrup-Sangiovanni (2001).

Pedersen (1998)

Keukeleire & Delreux (2022).

https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/country_22_6088

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e-ISSN: 1647-7251

Vol. 15, Nº. 1 (May 2024 – October 2024), pp. 335-347

Notes and Reflections

Turkey-Cyprus: Prometheus Unbound or The Catharsis of Afrodite?

Christian Ilcus

337

establishing a school in Istanbul on the same topics. Ankara could adopt a Turkey-

Transparency International anti-corruption package comprising institution-building,

policy, and legislation. The EU Commission also highlights Turkey’s alignment with CFSP

statements. There are misgivings about the appeal to and use of populist Islamist forces

in Turkey and the emergence of identity politics in Türkiye

. Those, conversely, who

have been purged as part of the crack-down after the coup attempt in 2016 will be safer

by keeping a low profile until a professional administration is restored. And an end is

made to Turkey’s authoritarian bend

, a personal tragedy and a by-product of Erdogan’s

power grab fused with an Anadolu sense of revenge

. Turkey lives in a tough

neighborhood. Some EU member states are concerned about letting in Turkey without

comprehensive peace in the Middle East and about Turkey’s added value to the collective.

On its side, the EU must deliver on the Migration Pact, augment the Customs Union,

implement the agreed visa liberalization for Turkish citizens, and pay out the promised

funds to Ankara for providing security to the European Union

. There is no reason to be

petty. EU could also do more to partner with Turkey on its policies towards Iraq

, Syria

the Black Sea

, Caucasus

, and Central Asia

Cyprus’s departure point must be reconciliation and peace between Greece and Turkey

This could comprise establishing working parties in all areas of dispute on the model of

Turkey’s relationship with Azerbaijan and KSA. However, people-to-people programs and

a historian commission might also be added. Pending progress between Athens and

Ankara on the 25-point Positive Agenda and the Joint Action Plan and its extension into

the political realm through establishing working parties in all areas of dispute

, progress

on Cyprus will be possible. Next, according to Andreas Theophanous, an international

refugee settlement commission is needed to address compensation for Cypriot refugees,

agree on rules and modalities for rehousing, and manage the question of property

rights

. A UNESCO Fund could be established to restore destroyed cultural artifacts in

Cyprus

. This could be accompanied by a De-securitization program and confidence-

building measures backed by the EU & UN

, followed by an agreement on exploiting

energy resources in natural waters

. Finally, a trilateral Border Commission between

Libya-Turkey-Greece could ensue. Based on this, the EU Commission could study

Northern Cyprus’ relationship with the EU

. In return, Turkey could lift its veto on the

Ankara protocol to the Customs Union so that a trading relationship emerges based on

Levin (2011) Yaman & Dönmez (2023)

Duzgun (2022) & Neuman (2021).

Consequences of the Intcen report on the coup in Turkey[online]

https://www.europarl.europa.eu/doceo/document/E-8-2017-

000601_EN.html?ssp=1&darkschemeovr=0&setting=da-DK&safesearch=moderate

Carroado (2019)

Duman & Aygün (2023)

Phillips (2018) Baucher ( 2021 ) Rabinowich & Valensi (2022).

Roxandra (2012), Acikmese & Triantatyfollou (2017), Pokaev, Sovga & Chaplina (2021)

Hunter (2017), Amolnik & Weiss (2021), Haxthausen (2021), Avdaliani (2022).

Brannen (2016)

Kontos (2022)

Ioannides (2023).

Theophanous (2017)

Clausen (2013)

Adamides ( 2020) , Hampson & ôzerdem ( 2022) ICC (2024).

Goren, Limon & Sözen (2023).

Adalouglu ( 2009)

JANUS.NET, e-journal of International Relations

e-ISSN: 1647-7251

Vol. 15, Nº. 1 (May 2024 – October 2024), pp. 335-347

Notes and Reflections

Turkey-Cyprus: Prometheus Unbound or The Catharsis of Afrodite?

Christian Ilcus

338

international law and mutual recognition

. This ought to provide the conditions for

political negotiations in Cyprus, a conflict with its own dynamic, as noted by President

Erdogan.

According to Sözen, the bilateral negotiations in Cyprus could be relaunched by resuming

work at the point where they were left off

. This implies the resuscitation of the political

and technical working parties and addressing outstanding issues at the presidential level.

Based on this, a consensus must be forged between the two communities’ leaders on

common institutions and external security within a federal constitution, the constitutional

order of choice. A national body for a re-unified Cyprus would require a constitutional

assembly, which could comprise Andras Sajo, Tom Ginsburg, and Bruno de Witte as

international experts. The two entities are constituents of the constitution-making

process, and the two Presidents are convenors of a constitutional assembly. The Cypriot

constitution should be inclusive, specific, and flexible to endure

. A broad spectrum of

both societies should be represented in the community. It is understood that women, the

people, minorities, youth, migrants, settlers, and interest groups are included in the

Cypriot constitution-making process. The specificity of the Constitution’s provisions could

be facilitated by forging prior political negotiations on constitutional issues, security,

governance, territorial aspects, settlers, the four fundamental freedoms, and the

economy at expert and negotiator levels. The EU Commission could be involved in this

pre-negotiation. The Constitution should contain provisions on judicial review and a

constitutional amendment to be flexible. A unified army must be forged under the

command of the Cypriot President, who is to be elected by the people of Cyprus

. If a

Greek-Cypriot is elected as President, his Vice-President must be a Turkish Cypriot and

vice-versa. There should be one judiciary system and country-wide and communal

policing- René: One Foreign Service, Border Management organization, Investment &

Tourism Agency, and Integrated Tax-system. I anticipate Turkey to phase out its security

presence. The same applies to Great Britain. There should be provisions on the executive,

legislature(s) and courts, rights, and scope (monitoring elections, ombudsperson, anti-

corruption, minorities). Contingency decisions concerning abolishing the guarantor

system also belong in the new Cypriot constitution. In short, Cyprus’ vision for a solution

to the conflict appears sound, although flexibility on Anatolian settlers on the island,

procedural aspects, and the process of constitution-making appear nearby. On this basis,

I anticipate continuity in action.

Thus, I turn things a little upside-down, addressing emotional aspects cluttering

progress, emphasizing the design of the constitution-making process

, and changing the

sequencing of moves geared towards a political compromise. The constitution is brought

to a referendum – not the settlement plan. It is only at the moment of adoption of the

new Cypriot constitution that the President informs the EU that the territorial application

of the acquis may now be extended to the whole island under a jointly agreed form, upon

European Parliament postpones vote on protocol to Ankara agreement

[online]https://www.europarl.europa.eu/RegData/presse/pr_info/2005/EN/03A-DV-PResse_IPR(2005)09-

21(00563)_EN.pdf

Sözen (2017)

Ginsburg & Melton (2014)

The EU Commission could scrutinize the election law given the bad experiences in Cyprus.

Ginsburg (2012).

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e-ISSN: 1647-7251

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Notes and Reflections

Turkey-Cyprus: Prometheus Unbound or The Catharsis of Afrodite?

Christian Ilcus

339

which TRNC is integrated into the EU

. I propose that the timeline put on the roll-back

of foreign militaries could begin from the date of adoption of the Cypriot constitution.

Terminating the Treaty of Guarantee could ensue by mutual consent due to changed

circumstances.

The assumption is that Greeks are federalists, listen to Berlin and Paris, and care about

Cyprus. I want to emphasize that Turkish elites are pro-European, power-oriented, and

pragmatic. Turkey likely adopted negotiation tactics to extract concessions from the EU

after the Kosovo War. This was initially successful based on the transatlantic four-

pronged deal emerging from the US-EU summit on 21 June 1999 in Bonn

. Or was it

Cologne? The intervention by the US was widely anticipated at the diplomatic level ahead

of the US-EU Summit. Thus, central EU member states concorded internally in a working

group – Quint Chypre – where it was decided that Turkish membership would come at a

“price” (David Hannay). Turkey then prepared itself to play along, while a period of push-

ups and negotiations ensued based on the four-pronged US-EU package deal, likely a

multi-bilateral anorak for a “done deal” whereby France agreed not to exclude Turkey

from the talks on Cyprus’ future in return for Great Britain’s support for the Franco-

German grand bargain, i.e., the development of a common European defense. Thus, - to

coin Claude Martin - the EU’s approach to enlargement, and by extension, to Turkey

would be “global, inclusive, evolutionary”.

On this basis, playing the Cyprus card proved a highly realistic proposition and a

stratagem, maximizing Turkey’s leverage from a position of relative weakness. TRNC

subsequently voted yes to the Annan IV plan, while Turkey turned its back on Europe

when its stratagem failed as Cyprus adopted coercive bargaining. At an emotional level,

this meant a smooth transition from being a historical presence in Europe to being a

member of the EU was thwarted. It also meant Bill Clinton’s attempt to organize Europe

around the bilateral-time of the US’s links to the middle powers in Europe failed, even as

his bid to steal a march on the EU by playing France and Germany out against each other

were to be rectified. Or, as Joshua Fischer said in a casual remark in Firenze in 2001

during his visit to EUI: “He was a strong one.” The poet puts it like this: “Like a cornered

animal cunning, I concealed my game, my stake, my bet from your gaze.”

The EU Commission’s attempt to channel Franco-German power into a Constitutional

Treaty by acting as host to the Quint Chypre was similar to leading to a shipwreck. This

relative failure also doesn’t explain why the Helsinki Headline Goals on the rapid reaction

corpse have remained a pie in the sky. There seems to have been no political will to enact

Protocol 10 on Cyprus, https://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-

content/EN/TXT/HTML/?uri=CELEX:12003T/PRO/10&from=ES

Ilcus ( 2000). I was relayed that a conversation between Kohl and Chirac took place in 1997 in Turkey along

the following lines: Kohl: “I have given up the Deutschmark. Now, I want influence over France’s defense

policy”. Chirac replied: “Deal. I want Turkey in the EU, then”. This is the origin of article 17 in the Amsterdam

treaty, later amended by TFEU 42 in the Lisboa treaty. And this is why I recall the regional grand bargain

on Turkey underlying the 1999 transatlantic package deal, if not underpinning it. This piece of high politics,

still undocumented in physical form, is alluded to in the literature and reverberates through the EU

machinery. I hope to document it in the book to evolve out of my thesis. That is to say, the historical and

political context against which the grand bargain between EU and Turkey unfolds is a struggle over Europe’s

political order, which coincides with the question of the Euro-pean post-Cold War security architecture. This

also allows us to distinguish between what is right and what is wrong, what is emergent or needs to be

strengthened, how to apply practical rationality, and how best to participate in the earthly realities through

the mediation of a humanized cosmic order.

JANUS.NET, e-journal of International Relations

e-ISSN: 1647-7251

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Turkey-Cyprus: Prometheus Unbound or The Catharsis of Afrodite?

Christian Ilcus

340

politically binding plans nor reflect upon how to implement the EU’s treaty-bound

obligations to each other and the citizenry.

Turkish interests, however, are linked to the anchoring of its modernization project in

Europe. The positions throughout the EU integration project and, by implication, the

objectives pursued by the EU core and Turkey are gradually converging. Moreover,

Turkey connects the Kurdish issue to the Cyprus conflict in their strategic percepts. In

plain language, the Turkish Army doesn’t want to be taken in the ass and the front

simultaneously. The TRNC is a sub-division of Turkey, and Ankara controls Lefkosa in

strategic matters. Turkey has adopted a more assertive foreign policy, a by-product of

the deterioration in the bilateral relationship with the EU.

Thus, the time for a solution

is becoming ripe. Indeed, a fresh approach is warranted as part of a broader effort to

stabilize the Eastern Mediterranean, strengthen Europe’s energy security, and move the

EU toward a sustainable equilibrium based on satisfying the EU’s objectives in “a strategic

and forward-looking manner.”

Of course, the EuCo is free to express itself on various options for the next phase of the

European integration project. Still, they should rely on the historical record and the

political context within which that political choice is based on the suitable course of action

between the EU and Turkey. There are well-laid foundations, which were renewed

following the unification of Germany. They should also avoid false discourses – by

affirming the past and negating the option

. A harmonious solution is possible now. The

future has an old heart.

Or, to coin Cicero: I have often and deeply resolved this question in my mind: whether

a command of the dossier has been beneficial or detrimental to men and cities concerning

the desired political order in Europe. When I consider the debacle over the Constitutional

Treaty, and when I call to mind also the role of France, Germany, and Italy in the

formation of the European nation-state

, I see that it is by no means the most

insignificant portion of their distresses which has originated from the conduct of the most

influential leaders. But, at the same time, when I set myself to trace the various

attempts, with the aid of written memorials and documents, affairs which, because of

their historical record, bear witness to unconstructive attitudes to a settlement in Cyprus

by the former French ambassador to Germany, lack of coordination and ripeness as well

as clumsiness by the UN and EU Commission

, and sabotage by Russia

, I perceive the

need for political leadership assisted by wisdom and facilitated by diplomacy and

cemented by friendships and interaction.

At the EU level, treaty reform is now urgently needed. The departure point for this is a

two-step process

. In the first instance, the simple procedure for treaty change will be

Kutlay & Önis (2021).

European Council Conclusions, 30 June 2023 [online]https://data.consilium.europa.eu/doc/document/ST-

7-2023-INIT/en/pdf

Wigen (2010).

Kohn (1967)

Hannay (2004)

Drousiotis, (2023)

The Franco-German Summit on 22 January 2023 established a working group - Groupe de Douze – which

envisages three stages: (1) immediate reforms, (2) IGC25, and (3) Convention. Immediate reforms are

extensions of majority voting in certain areas of foreign policy, enlargement, and taxation) Article 7 related

sanctions on the rule of law, and stronger citizen participation. The next milestones: The Granada Informal

Foreign Minister Meeting and the EUCO December 2023 will decide on a suitable way forward.

JANUS.NET, e-journal of International Relations

e-ISSN: 1647-7251

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Notes and Reflections

Turkey-Cyprus: Prometheus Unbound or The Catharsis of Afrodite?

Christian Ilcus

341

enacted to strengthen the EU’s global role and enhance the EU’s democratic legitimacy,

considering the Conference on Europe’s Future proposals. This also allows for a division

of labor between member states and the supranational institutions. This should facilitate

addressing the underlying issues and resolving the strategic stakes the actors attribute

to the grand bargain between the EU and Turkey. However, I do not intend for the blood

of the Bull to be spilled on the earth of barbarians. On the contrary, I want to lead and

guide the evolving EU. A convention will likely be convened in the second sequence when

the EU’s enlargement to West-Balkan approaches. In parallel, harmonizing the Euro-

zone’s debt issuance calendars around Italian, French, and German benchmarks,

administered by a debt management office in ECB, could be decided on

. The deepening

of the European integration project will accompany the widening of the EU. Thus, a proper

foundation for an enlarging European Union will be laid not on sand but on a rock. Perhaps

the Cyprus conflict is a microcosm of the Euro-Pean Union. The plan is to forge a state-

like fiscal-military actor out of the EU to manage the Franco-German structured rivalry

veritably and move Europe forward effectively and creatively. It is really about seizing

the moment and fully exploiting the situation. Sich Bessinnen on leadership, clear

communication and a coherent approach. This contrasts with a process without a sujet,

if not without an agent or agency

If a certain logic applies, Turkey could accede after the accession of the West-Balkan

countries. The point is not only – to coin Orhan Pamuk - that the relationship between

Turkey and Europe constitutes a prism on the development of The European Union and

Turkey, but also that we are in this together. If the EU and Turkey are together, nothing

is impossible; if we are divided, all will fail. Thus, the EU needs to weigh in and maximize

the probability that a future multipolar system is well-managed and as democratic as

possible.

No later than at the point of Georgia’s accession

, a Council of Ministers in the formation

of Europe-Ministers could be created employing a democratically elected Senate

representing the member states

. This is the paradox of a good solution. As the

supranational leadership is strengthened, the European Council could increasingly

assume the role of a Council of Prytanneans.

Can you follow me?

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Christian Ilcus

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How to cite this note

Baião, Teresa & Saramago, André (2024). Turkey-Cyprus: Prometheus Unbound or the Catharsis

of Afrodite?. Notes and Reflections, Janus.net, e-journal of international relations. VOL 15, Nº.1,

May-October, pp. 335-347. DOI https://doi.org/10.26619/1647-7251.15.1.01