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INDIA’S ARCTIC POLICY:

DETERRENT AGAINST CHINA’S BELT AND ROAD INITIATIVE?

FERHAT CAGRI ARAS

ferhatcagriaras@ktu.edu.tr

Assistant Professor at Karadeniz Technical University (Turkey) in International Relations in the

faculty of economics and administrative sciences. His research focuses on South Asian

development policies, Indo-Pacific and Arctic. He is particularly interested in energy security and

Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). Recently, his work is focused on regional policies and security

strategies of Arctic with India. Dr Ferhat Cagri Aras also continues field studies and case studies

for the regional development programs of South Asia. ORCID: 0000-0003-2108-1981

YUCEL BULUT

yucelbulut@ktu.edu.tr

Karadeniz Technical University (Turkey), Lecturer in International Relations in the faculty of

economics and administrative sciences. His research focuses on South Asian history, politics and

human right issue of minorities as well as refugee problems in Turkiye and India. Recently, his

work is focused on Arctic’s Historical and cultural roots in India and South Asia. Dr Yucel Bulut

also continues field and case studies for the regional conflicts of South Asia. ORCID: 0000-0003-

1225-5249

Abstract

This study aims to analyse India’s Arctic policy, along with its historical background, and

discusses whether it has a deterrent structure against Chinese policies in the Arctic. Typically,

innovation programs are instrumental methods for countries to develop their economies.

However, driven by apprehensions that China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) project may

potentially impact the autonomy of other nations in the region, India has assumed a

supporting role within the Arctic context in relation to China. In the international arena, it has

become evident that other countries can be alternative allies against China’s foreign policies.

In this study, employing qualitative research methods, an in-depth examination of the

historical background of India’s Arctic policy has been conducted, encompassing a

comprehensive literature review. Subsequently, using a comparative analysis method, these

policies have been evaluated by juxtaposing various facets of the policies with analogous

policies pursued by other nations. Finally, a comprehensive regional and international data

analysis has been executed to assess the ramifications and potential outcomes of China’s Belt

and Road Initiative (BRI) within the region. This approach has facilitated a nuanced

comprehension of India’s role in the Arctic and the rationale underpinning India’s stance vis-

à-vis the policies pursued by China.

Keywords

Arctic, India, China, Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), Make in India

Resumo

O presente estudo tem por objetivo analisar a política da Índia para o Ártico, bem como os

seus antecedentes históricos, e discutir se esta tem uma estrutura de dissuasão contra as

políticas chinesas no Ártico. Normalmente, os programas de inovação são métodos

instrumentais para os países desenvolverem as suas economias. No entanto, devido a receios

de que o projeto chinês da Iniciativa Uma Faixa, Uma Rota (BRI) possa ter um impacto

potencial na autonomia de outras nações da região, a Índia assumiu um papel de apoio no

contexto do Ártico em relação à China. Na arena internacional, tornou-se evidente que outros

JANUS.NET, e-journal of International Relations

e-ISSN: 1647-7251

Vol. 14, Nº. 2 (November 2023-April 2024), pp. 211-230

India’s Artic policy: deterrent against China’s Belt and Road initiative

Ferhat Cagri Aras; Yucel Bulut

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países podem ser aliados alternativos contra as políticas externas da China. Neste estudo,

que utiliza métodos de investigação qualitativos, foi efectuada uma análise aprofundada dos

antecedentes históricos da política indiana para o Ártico, incluindo uma revisão exaustiva da

literatura. Posteriormente, utilizando um método de análise comparativa, estas políticas foram

avaliadas através da justaposição de várias facetas com políticas análogas adoptadas por

outras nações. Por último, foi efectuada uma análise exaustiva de dados regionais e

internacionais para avaliar as ramificações e os potenciais resultados da Iniciativa Uma Faixa,

Uma Rota (BRI) da China na região. Esta abordagem facilitou uma compreensão matizada do

papel da Índia no Ártico e a lógica subjacente à posição da Índia face às políticas seguidas

pela China.

Palavras chave

Ártico, Índia, China, Iniciativa "Uma Faixa, Uma Rota" (BRI), "Make in India.

How to cite this article

Aras, Ferhat Cagri; Bulut, Yucel (2023). India’s Arctic Policy: Deterrent Against China’s Belt and

Road Initiative?. Janus.net, e-journal of international relations, Vol14 N2, November 2023-April

2024. Consulted [online] in date of last view, https://doi.org/10.26619/1647-7251.14.2.9

Article received on May 20, 2022 and accepted on August 22, 2023

JANUS.NET, e-journal of International Relations

e-ISSN: 1647-7251

Vol. 14, Nº. 2 (November 2023-April 2024), pp. 211-230

India’s Artic policy: deterrent against China’s Belt and Road initiative

Ferhat Cagri Aras; Yucel Bulut

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INDIA’S ARCTIC POLICY:

DETERRENT AGAINST CHINA’S BELT AND ROAD INITIATIVE?

FERHAT CAGRI ARAS

YUCEL BULUT

Introduction

The Arctic is increasingly valuable in the world due to its strategic and economic

importance, natural resources, scientific research opportunities, new sea routes, and

environmental security. Recently, there has been a considerable increase in the number

of countries interested in developments and activities in the Arctic. This concern does not

only cover the eight countries with sovereign territories within the Arctic Circle; many

countries that are observers of the Arctic Council, which are not directly connected to the

Arctic but seek commercial opportunities in this region, are also trying to increase their

activities in the Arctic.

The changes brought about by climate change in the Arctic allow for more oil, gas, and

other natural resources to be discovered and more opportunities for commercial shipping,

fishing, and tourism. However, these changes can also negatively affect the Arctic and

remote regions. While the eight Arctic states closely control activities in this region today,

observer states (Germany, Netherlands, Poland, United Kingdom, France, Spain, China,

India, Italy, Japan, South Korea, Singapore, and Switzerland) outside the Arctic Council

have established their presence in the region through their observatories since 2019.

These states have launched regional research stations, evaluated its resources, and

identified new research areas in politics, law, and diplomacy with states. They have also

worked to develop trade and economic relations by making the Northern Sea Route

suitable for transportation.

Countries outside the Arctic, such as India and China, which have commercial and

strategic interests, are in contact with this region for fear of being excluded from the

management of the unused resources of the Arctic. India’s interest in the Arctic began

when it recognized rising sea levels as a global problem due to melting Arctic glaciers.

Likewise, China commenced transferring the BRI route towards the North Sea, aiming to

expand its innovation program network and hinterland more swiftly and securely. The

climate change of the monsoon has created severe food insecurity in India, while rising

sea levels have flooded the subcontinent’s vast coastal roads, putting many natural

JANUS.NET, e-journal of International Relations

e-ISSN: 1647-7251

Vol. 14, Nº. 2 (November 2023-April 2024), pp. 211-230

India’s Artic policy: deterrent against China’s Belt and Road initiative

Ferhat Cagri Aras; Yucel Bulut

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structures at risk. Although India’s scientific purpose was initially for research, with the

increase in commercial opportunities, the region has become an area where India should

engage in commercial relationships. The belief that not being included in the Arctic would

harm India’s global interests has also been questioned recently due to the contradictory

and controversial views of Indian scholars. It is crucial to explain and clarify India’s

interest in the Arctic with a holistic perspective in line with emerging engagements, to

see the limitations of India’s interest in the region, and to understand its rivalry with

China in the Arctic.

Since December 2020, the government of India, with input from academics and

stakeholders, has taken a step towards making India’s Arctic Policy an official

government target. Likewise, China had a White Book (The State Council Information

Office of the People’s Republic of China, 2018) prepared for this region in previous

periods. In this context, India and China are competitive in economic cooperation,

transportation and connectivity, international cooperation, and national capacity building.

Since India’s initiatives are not yet fully clarified, they can be considered a working draft.

However, within the scope of China’s 2030 vision (The World Bank, 2013), it has included

the Arctic in all its long-term plans and programs, including the Polar Silk Road (PSR) in

the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) and regional initiatives, supporting this position.

With this understanding, this article analyses India’s initiatives in the Arctic, the historical

origins of the policies followed, and whether the ground movements of the government’s

foreign policy regarding the Arctic can rival China’s Arctic policy, both at the regional and

global level. On the one hand, the initiatives of both countries are evaluated in the context

of the interests of their innovation programs. On the other hand, the traces of global

competition in the Arctic are discussed. Before these inferences, in the first part, the

historical ties of India with the Arctic region and the logical grounds for these ties are

discussed. The fact that the references made while searching for historical roots with the

region of India are based on Tilak (1903) comes from the desire to prove that the

relations between the Arctic and South Asia are not a new phenomenon but have a

historical basis. In the second part, what kind of effort India has made to improve its

relations with the region, how it has tried to use scientific research as a soft power policy,

and how its commercial and economic ties with this region are discussed on an analytical

basis. The last part discusses the possible future global opportunities expected in the

Arctic and what kind of foreign policy China follows to take advantage of these

opportunities. It has been debated whether India can be seen as a competitor in

balancing the expansionist foreign policy of China in the Arctic. To be a part of the

commercial opportunities that will emerge in a conjuncture where the Arctic’s growth and

life are more possible, the article discusses what kind of opportunities India can have

under the Make in India program and how it can evaluate these opportunities from the

regional context to the global level. It is crucial to analyse the international competitive

areas of both states.

Exploring India’s strategy for securing its interests and opportunities in the Arctic,

measuring its ability to seize opportunities for regional cooperation, and understanding

how it is coping with difficulties are all critical in demonstrating India’s capabilities in

foreign policy. This research will directly address the deficiencies in understanding India’s

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e-ISSN: 1647-7251

Vol. 14, Nº. 2 (November 2023-April 2024), pp. 211-230

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Arctic policy and analysing the state policy. Analysing the existing forms of cooperation

in the region will also contribute to understanding the causes and origins of confusion

and disagreement in the literature.

1. Historical Background

India’s first bilateral relations with the Arctic began when India, as part of the British

Empire, signed the Svalbard Agreement in 1920 (Agarwala, 2021, p. 14). This

agreement, which entered into force in 1925, was the first agreement in which all

signatories allowed the same rightful use of all resources in the Arctic. However,

according to this treaty, the utilization of various resources and acquired products was

solely by the administrations established within the framework of the Svalbard draft. This

agreement also allowed for the militarization of the region. In this case, when another

state intervened, it unveiled the vulnerable and exploitable aspects of the area. Due to

this situation, India, like other states that are party to the agreement, stayed away from

the Arctic region for a long time. For this reason, India continued all of its scientific

activities related to the poles at the South Pole, Antarctica.

India first sent its research team to Antarctica in 1981 to study physical and

environmental changes. The exclusive economic zone problems of that period led India

to work at the South Pole at that time. Therefore, India began its studies on the poles in

Antarctica for scientific studies at the Dakshin Gangotri in 1983, then with the Maitri in

1989, and the Bharati research station in 2012 (Agarwala, 2021, p. 14). The expeditions

to Antarctica were based on scientific, economic, strategic, and political prospects. During

this period, India’s expeditions were designed to take advantage in case it became a

possible mining and trade centre; to conduct scientific research to examine climate

changes; to determine the effects of Antarctica on monsoons; and to take precautions in

case of a possible climate change (Chaturvedi, 1986, p. 360). As a nation on the rise in

the political arena, these efforts have provided India with essential access to international

forums when required. This strategic evolution has enabled India to establish and

underscore its influential standing, particularly in remote diplomatic ventures.

Although Antarctica did not receive much attention until the beginning of the 2000s and

was valued as a study area afterward, there was no development in the Arctic for India

during this period. After 2007, the decreasing snow and glaciers in the Arctic began to

be measured, and the plans to connect the poles and the rest of the world globally

increased in importance. As a result of the discoveries made after partnership studies in

the political field, the growing India had much-needed access to international forums (A.

Sinha et al., 2007, p. 880).

Until the mid-2000s, Antarctica was studied and visited historically by scientists from

various countries, while the North Pole did not receive sufficient attention until 2007. As

a result of the efforts initiated in 2007 as the “4th International Polar Year”, the shrinking

snow and ice cover in the polar regions brought with it the global connection between

the poles and the rest of the world, the resilience of local lands to environmental and

social change, and the efforts to explore the depths of the poles (Kruptik, 2011, p. 525).

With a knowledge base of scientific achievements in Antarctica, Indian scientists camped

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e-ISSN: 1647-7251

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in a research village on the island of Spitsbergen in 2007 (Khare, 2008, p. 442). Then,

in 2008, India established a research station called Himadri in Ny-Alesund to work on ice

science and marine research (Agarwala, 2021). The main focus of the work at that time

was to examine the relationship between the Arctic climate and the Indian monsoon,

primarily by analysing the rates of change in climate change and the size of glaciers.

Unlike today’s commercial and strategic partnerships, the relations of that period were

generally focused on obtaining scientific data. However, this scientific focus also helped

India become a full Ny-Alesund Science Managers Committee (NySMAC) member (Khare,

2008).

While the Antarctic Treaty of 1959 helped recognize Antarctica as a region for science

and cooperation, it should only be used for peaceful purposes and not become the scene

or object of international conflict. Studies and interests in the Arctic have been equally

important. Most regions surrounding the Arctic are under member states’ control.

However, with the possibility of opening new and shorter sea routes through the region,

the Arctic Sea has gradually become a hotbed of international conflict. In addition, the

Arctic’s natural resources, such as oil, gas, and minerals, have made it a conflict zone,

leading to increased militarization (Chaturvedi, 2014, p. 75).

India’s growing scientific participation and financial assistance in Arctic research led to

its election to the International “Arctic Science Committee” Commissioner in 2012. For

India, these studies were not isolated developments but are part of its global economic

interests, which form the main focus of its approach to the Arctic. Today, India’s global

vision of the Arctic is scientific in orientation. This situation is akin to an autobiography;

it is an inextricably complex situation where India must write its policies from its

perspective, adopt a foreign policy understanding, and have it accepted by the world. As

a result, no state can claim that its foreign policy is purely selfless. Every state claims its

foreign policy is the most humane and logical understanding. However, India’s choices

regarding Arctic policy should be viewed as political self-interest and a rational choice

between scientific idealism and the reality of economic and strategic issues. India’s Arctic

Policy can gain greater significance by asserting influence in a borderless region. This can

be achieved by adopting a reasoned foreign policy approach through multilateral

competition, dispersing regional issues rather than consolidating them within a single

area.

The theses and claims defended in this text form the basis of India’s existence in the

Arctic region. Some researchers claim that India’s interest in the Arctic dates back to

pre-colonial times (Zaikov & Bhagwat, 2022, p. 265), (Kumar, 2019, p. 115), (Saran,

2013). Recent references to India’s historical ties with the Arctic prove this claim. In

particular, during the SAGA-3 Conference held in Delhi, Bal Gangadhar’s work was

referenced, which traced the origins of India’s ties with the Arctic region back to the early

20th century (Science & Geopolitics of Arctic-Antarctic-Himalaya, 2015). Tilak (1903),

one of the crucial figures in India’s freedom struggle, explained how India viewed the

Arctic in his work and emphasized why Indian history and culture are essential for the

Arctic. Tilak claimed that the Aryans lived in the Arctic historically and later migrated to

Europe and the Indian subcontinent (Tilak, 1903). It is a fact that Tilak tried to establish

a connection between the Arctic region and India by spreading this idea. Another

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e-ISSN: 1647-7251

Vol. 14, Nº. 2 (November 2023-April 2024), pp. 211-230

India’s Artic policy: deterrent against China’s Belt and Road initiative

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prominent issue discussed at the SAGA-3 Conference held in Delhi is the thesis that India,

which signed the Spitsbergen Agreement in 1920 during British rule, is not foreign to the

Arctic. At this conference, Gupta and Sinha (U. K. Sinha & Gupta, 2015) stated that India

had adopted a non-colonial foreign policy understanding based on racial unity for its

Arctic Policy. Similarly, Chaturvedi (2014), at the same conference, referred to the Arctic

roots of India and Tilak’s book, saying that the people of the region had a place in Indian

history and that this historical structure was connected with the distant regions in the

north of the Eurasian continent (Science & Geopolitics of Arctic-Antarctic-Himalaya,

2015).

Despite all these historical root-seeking searches, India’s current presence and

involvement in the Arctic are reasonably recent, about 15 years. India’s participation in

developments in the Arctic is not very active, as it is far from the region and has little

influence. However, as Tilak (1903) states, it is interesting to relate to contemporary

Indian foreign policy priorities. When India cannot find a ground for a close relationship

in foreign policy, it often turns to historical materialism. The main reason behind Tilak’s

Vedic presence and means of establishing racial unity for India to connect with the region

stems from the fact that India had almost no political relations with the region except for

the past 15 years (Sinha, 2020). Linking contemporary foreign policy issues with India’s

cultural and civilizational heritage has also emerged frequently in recent discussions and

discourses, especially regarding the Indian foreign policy of the Bharatiya Janata Party

(BJP) government led by Narendra Modi. The Modi government, which seeks historical

background from its relations, follows the same path in its Arctic Policy and tries to claim

rights by finding a link from historical roots to be effective (Government of India, 2022).

The BJP government employed this historical bond-building strategy in 2014 to improve

its relations with Israel, even before the energy security talks with Central Asian

countries. Therefore, the reference to Tilak (1903) can also be seen as an attempt to

establish a historical link to gain power and claim rights. The fact that there is no other

source related to this racial unity and connection except Tilak’s book, which is written in

a language far from scientific reality, and that only inferences can be drawn from Tilak’s

ideas support this argument (Tilak, 1903). However, this viewpoint contradicts India’s

foreign policy interests in certain aspects. Gokhale argues that the reference to the

imaginary lines of China’s BRI project and the BJP government’s foreign policy perception

regarding free movement undermine India’s interest in pursuing this historical link

(Gokhale, 2021). Nonetheless, creating an official Arctic Policy of India demonstrates that

India has officially adopted a regional foreign policy understanding and has a roadmap

for future actions.

2. India’s Search for Historical Links to the Arctic: Informal Links to

Official Politics

India does not have a culture of institutionalized doctrinal approaches, often called official

papers (Sinha & Gupta, 2015, p. 112). This is because its infrastructure only works in

specific sectors and produces policy outputs. As a result, official foreign policy outputs on

any issue are usually improvised and have the nature of a roadmap, but their outcomes

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e-ISSN: 1647-7251

Vol. 14, Nº. 2 (November 2023-April 2024), pp. 211-230

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do not consistently achieve their intended purposes. For this reason, India’s political

decisions are strongly influenced by the political elite and bureaucracy.

There has been no official document on India’s national security nor severe public

pressure to create one. The report completed in 2022 on the Arctic is a publication, not

a roadmap, and is produced for propaganda. Despite low interest in public and policy

circles, India needs to play an active role in the Arctic Council and engage actively in

diplomacy for regional politics. This involves more than just organizing irregular briefings,

papers, and conferences. To be effective in developing other regions, quickly setting the

country’s economy, and using the Indian diaspora effectively, the government has

established new units in various ministries to work in these areas and follow an effective

way in foreign policy.

However, vital interrelated perspectives can be used as policy tools. For example, it is

essential to search for economic opportunities in maritime routes, develop natural

resources, and create a policy tool in which the financial interests of the regional states

will be observed. Similarly, it is essential to establish a coordination unit between the

Ministry of Earth Sciences (MoES) and the Ministry of External Affairs (MoEA), as well as

a cooperation and coordination unit to develop cross-border science and technological

cooperation, to establish an effective instrumental structure in policies related to the

Arctic. An Arctic policy that ignores security developments in the Arctic and emphasizes

scientific developments refers to India’s soft power capacity. However, a foreign policy

that includes the creation of an intelligent power capacity may result in India’s maximum

benefit in the long run.

There were several disagreements before the publication of an official Arctic Policy

document outlining what foreign policy instruments India should implement regarding

the Arctic. Parmar claimed that India did not have the resources to make a significant

initiative in the Arctic and suggested that India could participate in the Arctic with

observer status and be involved in resource management through working groups

(Parmar, 2020, p. 6). Similarly, Saran (2013) advocated cooperation with the Arctic

Council and sustainable resource cooperation with regional countries (Policy Watch,

2021). Kumar aimed to make India a centre of competition by establishing various

cooperations with states with good relations and with states in the region that do not

have the power to provide capacity, technology, financial support, and incentives to

protect the ecosystem in the Arctic (Kumar, 2019, p. 116). These ideas of Kumar might

be a reasonable proposition in a large-scale global political order. Notably, participating

in scientific activities in the Arctic and trying to cooperate with countries in the region

may strengthen India’s regional role in the Himalayas and bring positive political attitudes

towards improving cooperation with scientific workouts.

India’s Arctic engagement has been essential to its bilateral relations with Norway over

the past decade, particularly in trade, investment, and technology transfer in maritime,

hydroelectric, and ocean mining sectors. Since its establishment, Norway has been

India’s leading partner in the Arctic. Norway’s partnership with India has spread across

many areas rather than being a strategic alliance specific to the Arctic (Kumar, 2019, p.

123). For example, the fishing project that started in Kerala continues in many sectors

with joint efforts, and the same spiral of relationships is reflected in scientific research in

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the Arctic. Additionally, both countries have explicitly supported each other globally since

the 1950s.

In March 2022, India published its Arctic Policy, aiming to develop cooperation with the

resource-rich and rapidly transforming the Arctic. Titled “India’s Arctic Policy: Building a

Partnership for Sustainable Development,” the policy is built on six key areas: Science,

Climate and Environmental Protection, Economic and Human Development,

Transportation and Connectivity, Governance and International Cooperation, and

National Capacity Building (Government of India, 2022). The most striking aspect of this

policy is its goal to combat climate change and protect the environment in a region

warming three times faster than the rest of the world. The Minister of Earth Sciences,

Jitendra Singh, made this policy public. However, it is worth noting that the Ministry of

Earth Sciences, not the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, announced the policy, indicating that

relevant units and ministries have not yet cooperated on this concerning India’s foreign

policy. This suggests the view that the policy was created without explicit collaboration.

The Arctic, rich in mineral and oil resources, has recently gained strategic importance for

many states due to its numerous shipping routes. However, according to a report by the

Manohar Institute, the adverse effects of climate change affect the availability of mineral

and hydrocarbon resources and transform global shipping routes (Bisen, 2022, p. 6). In

this regard, India has included plans to improve its science and research capabilities and

deploy space technology to align its research with the priorities of the Arctic. India has

been examining climate changes in the Arctic since 2012, including determining the

melting route of glaciers, making it one of the few countries with comprehensive

information for calculating and researching new global shipping routes (‘The Indian

Express, 2022). India aims to use this information to analyse better the effects of melting

glaciers on international shipping routes, energy security, and mineral wealth

exploitation. With this roadmap, India also aims to establish the infrastructure to

effectively engage with China on a significant scale through new trade routes. Moreover,

India seeks to examine the connections and relations between the polar regions and the

Himalayas and has shared the outline of the studies required to increase its national

capacity by forming the basis of essential infrastructure works.

Countries like India and China have established closer relations and alliances with states

in the current Arctic. India opened Himadri (Ministry of Earth Sciences of India, 2008),

the only regional research station, in 2008, demonstrating substantial efforts to promote

scientific research and various projects and investments. However, despite establishing

the Norwegian Programme for Research Cooperation with India (INDNOR) (Ministry of

Foreign Affairs, 2018) to promote bilateral research and cooperation with Norway, India

does not have sufficient infrastructure and equipment to be more effective. India plans

to increase its scientific research activities in the Arctic by purchasing a Pole Research

Tool. The National Centre for Polar and Oceanic Research (NCPOR) has collaborated with

the Fesco transportation group (AK&M, 2020) to develop a regional transportation

network and provide icebreaker vehicles. Initially, the NCPOR started working in

Antarctica. With new contracts, India aims to increase its scientific research output in the

region and carry out many cooperation activities with the countries in the Arctic (Zaikov

& Bhagwat, 2022, p. 263).

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India’s official Arctic Policy, published in March 2022, demonstrates its commitment to

combating climate change and protecting the environment in the rapidly transforming

Arctic region. However, India seems to prioritize environmental and scientific potential

more among the observer states, with some reservations about engagement and borders

to support these factors. This could be due to the importance of agriculture in the Indian

economy’s dependency on monsoons and the country’s long coastline with a high

population, which makes climatic changes in this region a development that will threaten

the coastal states the most, including India.

In the field of economy, particularly in energy, India attempts to establish a strong

relationship with the region through its ties with Russia. Since the start of the Ukraine

war, India has been purchasing the cheapest energy from Russia, making their

relationship in the energy sector stable and longstanding. India has signed agreements

with Russia’s leading oil and gas companies to continue their relationship in the Arctic,

which includes cooperation in joint production and offshore exploration. India’s Oil and

Natural Gas Corporation (ONGC) has a significant stake in Russia’s Vankor oil field.

Moreover, India is the co-executive director of many Arctic observer countries’ projects

and has adopted a foreign policy approach to pursue its strategic partnership in the

context of American sanctions with these agreements and partnerships.

Diversifying energy imports always requires compatibility with a strong state and taking

a stand in conflicts. This approach enabled India to avoid the Countering America’s

Adversaries Though Sanctions Act (CAATSA) sanctions without harm. The diplomatic

steps taken to obtain the maximum benefit from the region’s energy resources and

natural mines also necessitate continuing this understanding. Mineral resources such as

gold, nickel, copper, granite, and uranium in the Arctic region are crucial for producing

high-tech products, including nuclear energy and mobile phones, the primary source of

raw materials India needs to advance its Make in India Initiative. Increasing cooperation

and alliance efforts with the region may also be constructive in this respect for the future

of the Make in India program.

Observing the Arctic has become crucial for India to have a say in the region. Typically,

the most effective way to propose a project or work in the Arctic is through an Arctic or

permanent participating member. India’s funding and support are limited, and any

opinion, statement, or document presented by India in the Arctic Council meetings

requires approval. India’s lack of veto power in the United Nations is similar to the power

wielded by states with veto power, such as Russia. India may need the support of one or

more conditions to make any progress in the Arctic, which would mean entering into a

limited relationship with the region. However, commercial competition with Russia and

Sino-Russian cooperation makes it difficult for India to have a say in the council. While

Norway could potentially support India, its tense relationship with Russia and China

makes Norway hesitant to keep any initiatives favouring India.

Nevertheless, the council is responsible for broader regulations governing maritime

routes and resources. Enjoying these general rights and influences alongside other Asian

observers can prevent the division of the Arctic’s resources and decision-making.

Furthermore, this obstruction is not limited to the region’s states but includes countries

with few commercial relations.

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The only thing clear in this scenario is that India, like other Asian observers, requires

energy, new markets, and resources. However, China’s increasing efficiency makes it a

more significant commercial threat and a more considerable danger to itself.

Consequently, China aims to establish global partnerships to control the Arctic, as

demonstrated by its Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) project. India’s dream of establishing

hegemony in the region by adopting a similar stance could damage its relations with

Arctic states, resulting in distrust of indigenous rights and weakening India’s global

position. A more realistic approach for India would be to avoid openly partnering with the

region to resolve territorial disputes and focus on inclusion in a legal framework.

Regardless of the circumstances, India must continue to create a favourable environment

for itself. As the Arctic’s commercial potential grows, there is general agreement that

India will not be able to reap as many gains and benefits as China, Japan, and South

Korea (Zaikov & Bhagwat, 2022, p. 270). This strengthens the argument that India

should focus on energizing science and environmental issues. Additionally, developed

countries tend to impose various sanctions on developing countries to take responsibility

for reducing their carbon emissions. Given that India is engaged in similar activities, a

more radical stance towards Arctic resource exploration and extraction activities may not

be wise. Despite the lack of significant economic gains, India can still reap some benefits

in real terms. Today, India’s goal continues to follow the sustainable development path

shared by most Arctic actors. Efforts to increase India’s influence in the region should

take a more holistic and inclusive stance by presenting environmental arguments against

the materialist approach. The growing Chinese presence and influence could encourage

other states to attract global attention to the Arctic. It is of great importance that this

attitude turns into radical steps to prevent the Arctic targets that China will address within

the scope of the BRI project, offset the concerns India has regarding the BRI, and

mitigate any unfavourable consequences that might arise.

3. Quests to Stabilize China in the Arctic: Can India’s Arctic Policy

Restrain China?

China’s engagement in the Arctic is driven by long-term economic opportunities and the

desire to establish a platform for scientific research. The Arctic’s shorter and more reliable

shipping route, easy access to natural resources, and climate change considerations have

prompted China to become involved (Lim, 2021, p. 40). Following an extended diplomatic

initiative, China’s inclusion in the Arctic Council as an observer in 2013 could be

considered a late decision, given its potential contribution to the Arctic’s international

decisions. The primary reason for granting observer status to China and five other states

at the cabinet meeting in Kiruna was to strengthen the position of the Arctic Council and

ensure its credibility and legitimacy (Ingimundarson, 2014, p. 190). As a non-Arctic

actor, China’s participation in the council as an observer provides an ideal way for China

to gain authorized access to the governance and decision-making process of the Arctic.

Although observer states are often perceived as weak due to the lack of voting rights in

the Arctic Council’s decision-making process, China’s observer status is expected to

provide significant benefits and influence on the Arctic Council without setting its future

agendas for the Arctic (Chen, 2012, p. 366).

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Furthermore, China regards the Arctic Council as a critical policy forum for addressing

Arctic-related issues. In its efforts to join the Arctic Council, China adopted a rigid and

stable foreign policy approach, despite facing complex diplomatic challenges

(Pursiainen

et al., 2021, p. 36). China applied to join the council four times from 2006 to 2013 and

was initially held in an ad-hoc status because it did not meet several admission

procedures observed within the council. Many of these procedures continue to form the

basis for significant challenges regarding China’s interests in the Arctic today.

The fact that significant issues regarding China’s interest in the Arctic have increased in

recent times necessitates a comparative analysis of China’s Arctic ambitions and a

discussion of the interests of Arctic states in the literary discourse (Andersson, 2021, p.

13). The existing literature contains numerous ideas about China’s Arctic ambitions.

China’s White Paper on the Arctic has not changed this literature and its views; on the

contrary, it further divides the existing literature into idealists and pragmatists alike.

However, it is helpful to place those who interpret China’s Arctic policy in the literature

by generalizing the literature as collaborative and pragmatists who interpret China’s

Arctic policy as deductive and use these policies in the right place.

In the White Paper, China is an essential stakeholder in the Arctic. Chinese Deputy

Foreign Minister Kong Xuanyou stated at a press conference on the publication of the

White Paper that China adopted two basic policies as an Arctic stakeholder (The State

Council Information Office of the People’s Republic of China, 2018). Xuanyou explained

that the first policy is China’s borders, and the other is not ignoring China. He added that

the behaviour of Chinese organizations and individuals in the Arctic respects international

law and relevant laws and that China also accepts that it is a country outside this region.

However, he stated that no regional security and order could be established without

China (The State Council Information Office of the People’s Republic of China, 2018).

Nevertheless, these statements do not necessarily reflect China’s participation as an

observer state or its absolute acceptance of the Arctic Council’s stake and interests in

the Arctic. Like other observer states in the Arctic Council, China is involved in managing

global environmental issues, taking advantage of the economic potential of the Arctic,

and protecting its commercial interests (Hossain et al., 2019, p. 4).

The natural conditions and climate changes in the Arctic directly impact China’s climate

system and ecological environment (Chater, 2016, p. 176). Therefore, China closely

monitors interregional and global issues in the Arctic. These issues are crucial for the

existence and well-being of all countries and peoples. Although the effects of climate

change can harm China’s economic growth, they can also jeopardize the political stability

of the Chinese Communist Party, which relies on robust economic growth as the basis of

its strength (Lim, 2021, p. 44). Moreover, China’s broad interest in utilizing the Arctic’s

energy potential is well-known and depends on abundant energy resources. As the

world’s largest energy consumer, China needs a continuous energy source to sustain its

economic growth. The Arctic’s untapped energy resources will help China diversify its

resources and supply (Liu, 2017, p. 62).

Additionally, China views the shipping sector as a vital part of the Arctic’s economic future

and the North Sea route as the golden route for shipping to the region. This route is the

shortest shipping route connecting Europe and North America. Since 2016, the most

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noteworthy advancement that China has witnessed in global politics is the development

of its trade routes within the framework of the BRI. China has mobilized all its energy for

the security of these routes and has created a separate security strategy for each region

where the route passes. Within the context of selling its production products to the world,

BRI finds itself with a rival having an alternative policy on the North Sea route.

The security of China’s foreign trade currently passes through the Straits of Malacca and

the Suez Strait, where traffic capacity is at its peak (Gavrilov & Kripakova, 2017, p. 74).

In this context, China, which aims to expand the BRI to the poles, plans to carry out its

transportation services, especially between the eastern coasts of North America, through

this region. This new route is expected to be 40% shorter than the Suez and Panama

Canal routes (Chen, 2012, p. 360). The North Sea route also provides a shorter route to

reach countries in the north-eastern region of China. In this respect, the North Sea route

gives China a policy imperative to dominate a new alternative route. This imperative also

shows that China’s Arctic interests extend beyond its geographical boundaries as it

emerges as a global power (Lim, 2021, p. 51). The White Paper on China’s Arctic Policy

was published at a time when these concerns arose.

Chinese culture generally does not summarize policies in writing unless it is necessary or

in its interest to do so. Unlike the great Western powers, China has only published official

and translated White Papers on urgent and important policy issues in recent years (Brady,

2017, p. 121). Therefore, the publication of the White Paper demonstrates that the Arctic

is important to Chinese policymakers. Based on its preface, China’s White Paper aims to

dispel the negative perception of China’s Arctic interests in the international community

and serve as a guiding document for coordination between government agencies. In this

respect, this document, which is entirely different from the paper published by India, is

vital for all state institutions to work effectively. Given that at least 17 government

agencies are involved in China’s Arctic affairs, China’s policymaking and execution

processes are broad and complex. Since there is no specialized agency or unit to carry

out China’s Arctic Policy, authority has been left to a few government agencies on

different subjects. This will require proper coordination to overcome bureaucracy and

achieve a common goal (Brady, 2017, p. 141).

Since China needs to have a deeper understanding of the Arctic to ensure its participation

in the region, it is apparent that the goals emphasized by China are an inseparable part

of its interest-based foreign policy tool. It is a known fact that every state tries to justify

its policies based on a justified basis to subsidize its interests and put them on an

objective basis. In this respect, China’s relationship with the Arctic does not appear to be

a challenge to the structure of the international community; on the contrary, China aims

to promote equality with other great powers as it rises without disturbing the global

balance of power. On the other hand, this foreign policy tool is perceived as part of the

Polar Silk Vision.

China sees it as a new alternative route to its grand strategy of connecting the Arctic to

the BRI. Given the BRI’s idea of ensuring economic security by guaranteeing China’s

trade routes through improved connectivity and trade flow between Asia, Europe, and

Africa, it also requires China to synchronize its development actions and plans for

maritime cooperation in advancing the BRI. In this context, China announced this vision

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to the world public opinion with a document published in 2017, which included a vision

and plan that expanded its economic corridors to Central Asia, the Balkans, Russia,

Europe, and North America. In this regard, China calls the White Paper the first official

policy document that sets out the Polar Silk Road (PSR) Vision regarding the development

of Arctic shipping routes (Loh, 2021, p. 175). According to this document, China

recognizes cultural and inferential problems in the relations of the Arctic states with a

state that is not in this region. Nevertheless, it is argued that the BRI project could

succeed even in the absence of China (Ang, 2019). In this context, China’s admission to

the Arctic Council as an observer aims to increase its political and economic influence in

the region to ensure that China’s interests are equally considered and respected.

China’s diplomacy with Arctic states demonstrates that the Northern Silk Road, with the

characteristics of the Belt and Road Initiative’s overarching grand strategy, is an

indispensable target. The diplomatic jargon that Chinese officials use when describing

BRI principles infers that China aims to facilitate global trade and economic integration

in the context of the BRI and Silk Road vision (Clarke, 2017, p. 75). As the Polar Silk

Road (PSR) enables China to diversify its sea routes and reduce travel time and fuel

costs, it further increases its interest, considering the importance of opening Arctic

shipping routes to revive China’s export-based economy. Since 2016, the state-owned

China Ocean Shipping Company (COSCO) has sent freighters to the Arctic. Deals for

powerful icebreaking ships that can break through glaciers instantly following current

routes show China’s commercial and economic interests.

China’s PSR vision began before the White Paper announced various cooperation

initiatives with Arctic states. For example, China and Russia started jointly producing

liquefied natural gas on Yamal Island. China’s national oil company was involved in the

project through the China Silk Road Fund. In addition, China financially supported the

LNG project in the Gyan Peninsula. China has also invested in natural resources and

minerals in both Yamal Island and various regions. China is currently jointly conducting

technology and data operations on PSR with Finland and Norway, which also economically

supports their railway projects.

All these steps show China’s efforts to intensify its relations and investments in Arctic

states, reflecting its strategic priority in the region. However, Chinese investments in

infrastructure projects throughout the PSR naturally raise concerns about the future of

Arctic security. Chinese construction companies’ interest in expanding three airports in

the Arctic has met severe opposition in Denmark. Similarly, Chinese investment in the

deep-water port in Sweden was withdrawn due to concerns about the environmental

impact and national security risks associated with the project (Lim, 2021, p. 53).

Moreover, Chinese investments in the Arctic have been criticized for their lack of

transparency and disclosure. Allegedly, these investments are often financed by the

state, and the nature of these investments, misrepresentations, distortions, and

differences in value reported to foreign media, along with the environment that has been

blurred to avoid possible competition and to provide manoeuvring for China, naturally

disturb other states in the global environment (Yin et al., 2020, p. 390).

Although no Chinese investment in the Arctic has defaulted, the possibility of Chinese

intervention in the region, if there is potential debt in the future, raises’ questions. Given

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the cyclical concern that China may seize control of strategic assets of indebted countries

when they fail to pay their debt, including taking over management of infrastructure

investments as part of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) project, China’s interest in

financing the Arctic raises concerns about the sustainability and fragility of their

investments. While China’s White Paper attempts to alleviate these concerns, the

absence of a constructive dialogue with the Arctic states highlights the need for close

relationships with other states to balance China.

In this respect, Arctic states may consider preventing the deterrence of China’s BRI

project and viewing India as a competitor and balancing factor for China. India, like

China, is an out-of-regional state and the only state in the world that competes with

China regarding population. Needing external resources to develop its economy, India

has faced a serious need for help within the scope of the Make in India Initiative program

in the last five years. India, which obtains almost 40% of its energy needs from Russia

and imports nearly 50% of its natural resource needs for its economy, aims to reduce

foreign dependency and prevent its foreign policy moves from causing an economic crisis

by diversifying its financial dependencies and attracting more investments to its country

(Pema, 2022).

In this context, India is establishing connections with the Arctic region, driven by the

belief that it can compete with China across various domains. India is concerned about

the possibility of China’s increased influence in the regional landscape, which it perceives

as a significant threat. To illustrate, India has become a member of the Quad Alliance to

counter the challenges posed by China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) in the Indo-Pacific

region. Additionally, India actively supports initiatives like Aukus in the Asia-Pacific to

curb China’s expansionist ambitions. India has announced the Sagarmala Project (Aras

& Kandemir, 2023, p.161), an alternative road route to China’s BRI project, conveying

that it is an alternative production centre to Europe and North America. In the same way,

India can be a balancing factor, not an all-out competitor to China, as an alternative to

China in the Arctic.

Compared to China’s backyard policy in the Arctic, India’s primary goal is to engage with

regional states on a win-win model and access resources. India already has a scientific

and economic alliance with Norway and imports some energy resources extracted by

Russian companies. India also entered a bilateral dialogue with Finland and Sweden and

is on the way to becoming an alternative for the regional states by increasing its

effectiveness. Given the potential challenges China poses to India across diverse sectors

and border regions under the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), it is crucial to have

alternative policies in every area where China is present. This will enable India to deter

China within its security context, and it is also vital to benefit from the deterrence of

global integration in case of any possible conflict or crisis in the global context.

China has close relations with Pakistan and Sri Lanka in South Asia under the BRI

framework. With the Gwadar Port and Railway Project financed in Pakistan’s BRI context,

China broke India’s previous influence over the Oman Sea, creating an alternative route.

Similarly, China has funded a trade corridor from the Gulf of Oman to Turkey and

competed with India for a joint road route project between Greece and Egypt in the

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Mediterranean. These events may bring significant economic competition between India

and China.

Map 1 - BRI network and potential competition areas

Source: Authors’ development

India is investing and entering economic cooperation with relevant countries in these

regions, while China makes these countries indispensable by investing in the relevant

areas. India aims to encourage other states to support and cooperate economically,

whereas China’s concerns are economically binding and cooperative. The Sino-Indian

rivalry in the Arctic can also be interpreted in this way. China invests in relevant strategic

ports and projects and is directly involved in extracting, operating, and purchasing

natural resources. Meanwhile, India attracts investments in its own country by entering

joint economic cooperation with Arctic states and stabilizes as a potential customer for

natural resources and energy.

Conclusion

This study addressed the central research question: Can India’s Arctic policy effectively

compete with China’s Arctic policy on regional and global fronts? India’s Arctic policy is a

compelling case study highlighting how scientific advancements can significantly

influence diplomatic strategies, particularly concerning the intricate relationship between

India’s monsoons and the melting Arctic glaciers. In response to mounting concerns

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about the adverse effects of melting Arctic glaciers on India’s critical agriculture industry

– essential for its burgeoning population and economy – India established the Himadri

research station in the Arctic. Subsequently, this research station has become a vital tool

for India’s soft power diplomacy efforts.

India’s effort to strengthen its international presence by leveraging its position on the

Arctic Council and its current activities in the region allows it to adopt a more holistic

governance stance and use available opportunities to counterbalance China. This

approach benefits India and China: India seeks access to energy and natural resources

to develop its industry, while China benefits from having a partner in the region to

balance its expansionist policies. The situation is akin to a free market of politics, in which

the regional and global balance of power is constantly shifting.

India’s role as a balancing factor in the region is reflected in its efforts to form alliances

to counter China’s expansionist policies. For example, India has organized workshops on

the Sagarmala project, which aims to become an international concept within India’s

Make in India program to balance China’s Belt and Road Initiative. India is also part of

formations such as Quad and Aukus, which aim to address regional security issues

through various alliances.

India’s Arctic policy has evolved strategically in response to scientific and economic

considerations, with the overarching objective of effectively positioning itself against

China in the Arctic region. This analysis affirms that reasoned and strategic foundations

underpin India’s Arctic policy and directly address the central research question posed at

the outset of this study. While the COVID-19 pandemic has brought India to the forefront

as an alternative to China for establishing commercial hegemony, it is noteworthy that

China continues to invest in economic corridors in the Indo-Pacific, including extensions

to Pakistan’s Gwadar Port, to mitigate potential security risks. The mutual benefits arising

from such alliances can vary significantly in each region. In the Arctic context, India

perceives China as a balancing ally, leading to mutual benefits for both nations rather

than viewing China solely as a deterrent. This approach enables India to remain a

formidable regional ally, capitalizing on the resources and financial flows emanating from

the Arctic.

In summary, India’s Arctic policy has evolved as a strategic response to scientific and

economic considerations, aiming to position itself effectively against China in the Arctic

region. The analysis supports the argument that India’s Arctic policy has a reasoned and

strategic foundation and directly addresses the research question posed at the beginning

of this study. India’s Arctic policy is a testament to the intricate interplay between

science, diplomacy, and global strategy. It showcases how a nation’s scientific

endeavours can shape its foreign policy, particularly in a rapidly changing Arctic

environment. India is working diligently to establish itself as a significant player on

regional and global fronts through its active engagement in the Arctic region and its

efforts to forge alliances. This evolving policy serves its immediate interests and reflects

its broader aspirations of maintaining a balanced and influential presence in an

increasingly crucial geopolitical arena. As the Arctic continues to experience

unprecedented changes, India’s strategic positioning in the region will undoubtedly have

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far-reaching implications for its relationship with China and its role in shaping the future

of the Arctic itself.

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