OBSERVARE
Universidade Autónoma de Lisboa
e-ISSN: 1647-7251
VOL. 16, Nº. 2, TD3
Thematic Dossier
Rule of Law, Human Rights, and Institutional
Transformation in Times of Global and National Challenges
March 2026
344
STATE REGULATION AND ADMINISTRATION OF HUMAN CAPITAL
DEVELOPMENT IN WAR AND POST-WAR CONDITIONS
SERHII DUHA
duha.serhii@hneu.net
PhD student of the Department of Finance and Credit
Simon Kuznets Kharkiv National University of Economics
Kharkiv (Ukraine) https://orcid.org/0009-0003-8252-2354
MYKHAILO IOFFE
a05300419@tnu.edu.ua
Doctoral Student at the Department Public Administration, Tourism and Hotel and Restaurant
Business V. I. Vernadsky Taurida National University
Kyiv (Ukraine) https//orcid.org/0009-0000-0579-5517
LILIIA MUNTIAN
lili.muntyan@gmail.com
PhD (Engineering Sci.), Associate Professor Department of Morphology and Public Health Petro
Mohyla Black Sea National University
Mykolaiv (Ukraine)
https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8456-4564
OLENA SLAVKOVA
olena.slavkova.snau@gmail.com
Professor of the Public Management and Administration Department
Faculty of Economics and Management Sumy National Agrarian University
Sumy (Ukraine) https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1864-0810
ALEXANDRA KAZARIAN
kazaranoleksandra@gmail.com
Ph.D. (Economic Sci.), Senior Lecturer of the Department of Management, Finance and
Administration Odesa Institute of the Private Joint-Stock Company “Higher Educational Institution
‘MAUP’, Odesa (Ukraine) https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5720-5168
Abstract
During the war, the development of human potential has acquired the status of a key problem
in terms of socio-economic stability for Ukraine, resulting in analysis and reflections on what
is happening and how to overcome it. This is a relevant subject because of the massive
demographic losses, educational shortcomings and structural changes in the labor market
that the country faces as part of its long-term prospects for recovery. Effective state policy
and digital tools to foster human potential are especially important within the context of these
processes. The purpose is to determine the main trends of change in Ukraine’s human capital
during war and postwar time, their impact on labor market and education system. The
methodological foundation was the generalization of data from official statistics, a comparative
analysis of the dynamics of indicators for 2019–2024, and structural-logical modeling. The
outcome witnessed a stark decline of the human capital index, reduction in the working age
population, an increase in the IDP figure as well as a drop in employment rate; all pointing
to a deepening of socio-economic instability. It has been shown that the worst problems are
associated with destruction of educational infrastructure, inequality in access to digital
resources and the increase of psychosocial risks preventing an influx of competencies in future
JANUS.NET, e-journal of International Relations
e-ISSN: 1647-7251
VOL. 16, Nº. 2, TD3
Thematic Dossier - Rule of Law, Human Rights, and Institutional
Transformation in Times of Global and National Challenges
March 2026, pp. 344-366
State Regulation and Administration of Human Capital
Development in War and Post-War Conditions
Serhii Duha, Mykhailo Ioffe, Liliia Muntian, Olena Slavkova, Alexandra Kazarian
345
generations. At the same time, the possibility of digitalization and new educational models as
counter-factors which could maintain human capital activities under a limited-resource regime
has also been profiled. Institutional competencies of public policy in the labour market, social
protection and regional development areas have been studied providing a diagnosis of the
most effective ones. The impact of the results in practice can manifest in a new approach to
the development of post-war recovery programs, retraining programs and creation of regional
competences centers and digital infrastructure modernization for the human resources
management.
Keywords
Human capital, recovery, labor market, demographic changes, digitalization, public policy,
regional development.
Resumo
Durante a guerra, o desenvolvimento do potencial humano tornou-se uma questão
fundamental para a estabilidade socioeconómica da Ucrânia, levando a análises e reflexões
sobre o que está a acontecer e como superar essa situação. Trata-se de um tema relevante
devido às enormes perdas demográficas, às deficiências educacionais e às mudanças
estruturais no mercado de trabalho que o país enfrenta como parte das suas perspetivas de
recuperação a longo prazo. Políticas estatais eficazes e ferramentas digitais para fomentar o
potencial humano são especialmente importantes no contexto desses processos. O objetivo é
determinar as principais tendências de mudança no capital humano da Ucrânia durante a
guerra e no pós-guerra, bem como o seu impacto no mercado de trabalho e no sistema
educativo. A base metodológica foi a generalização de dados de estatísticas oficiais, uma
análise comparativa da dinâmica dos indicadores para 2019-2024 e modelagem estrutural-
lógica. O resultado revelou um declínio acentuado do índice de capital humano, uma redução
da população em idade ativa, um aumento do número de pessoas deslocadas internamente,
bem como uma queda na taxa de emprego, tudo isto apontando para um agravamento da
instabilidade socioeconómica. Foi demonstrado que os piores problemas estão associados à
destruição das infraestruturas educativas, à desigualdade no acesso aos recursos digitais e
ao aumento dos riscos psicossociais que impedem o afluxo de competências nas gerações
futuras. Ao mesmo tempo, também foi apresentada a possibilidade da digitalização e de novos
modelos educativos como contra-fatores que poderiam manter as atividades de capital
humano num regime de recursos limitados. As competências institucionais das políticas
públicas nas áreas do mercado de trabalho, proteção social e desenvolvimento regional foram
estudadas, fornecendo um diagnóstico das mais eficazes. O impacto dos resultados na prática
pode manifestar-se numa nova abordagem ao desenvolvimento de programas de recuperação
pós-guerra, programas de reciclagem profissional e criação de centros de competências
regionais e modernização da infraestrutura digital para a gestão de recursos humanos.
Palavras-chave
Capital humano, recuperação, mercado de trabalho, mudanças demográficas, digitalização,
políticas públicas, desenvolvimento regional.
How to cite this article
Duha, Serhii, Ioffe, Mykhailo, Muntian, Liliia, Slavkova, Olena & Kazarian, Alexandra (2026). State
Regulation and Administration of Human Capital Development in War and Post-War Conditions.
Janus.net, e-journal of international relations. Thematic Dossier - Rule of Law, Human Rights, and
Institutional Transformation in Times of Global and National Challenges, VOL. 16, Nº. 2, TD3, March
2026, pp. 344-366. https://doi.org/10.26619/1647-7251.DT0226.18
JANUS.NET, e-journal of International Relations
e-ISSN: 1647-7251
VOL. 16, Nº. 2, TD3
Thematic Dossier - Rule of Law, Human Rights, and Institutional
Transformation in Times of Global and National Challenges
March 2026, pp. 344-366
State Regulation and Administration of Human Capital
Development in War and Post-War Conditions
Serhii Duha, Mykhailo Ioffe, Liliia Muntian, Olena Slavkova, Alexandra Kazarian
346
Article submitted on 04 December 2025 and accepted for publication on 08 January
2026.
JANUS.NET, e-journal of International Relations
e-ISSN: 1647-7251
VOL. 16, Nº. 2, TD3
Thematic Dossier - Rule of Law, Human Rights, and Institutional
Transformation in Times of Global and National Challenges
March 2026, pp. 344-366
State Regulation and Administration of Human Capital
Development in War and Post-War Conditions
Serhii Duha, Mykhailo Ioffe, Liliia Muntian, Olena Slavkova, Alexandra Kazarian
347
STATE REGULATION AND ADMINISTRATION OF HUMAN CAPITAL
DEVELOPMENT IN WAR AND POST-WAR CONDITIONS
SERHII DUHA
MYKHAILO IOFFE
LILIIA MUNTIAN
OLENA SLAVKOVA
ALEXANDRA KAZARIAN
Introduction
Formation of human capital in the conditions of the military actions has turned into one
of the most important factors for stability in Ukraine that should directly impact on quality
functioning of a labor force, as it is exactly by this factor determined ability of a country
to restore and modernize itself. Human capital is an important factor of the innovation
growth and adjustment of society to crisis challenges, as verified by international studies
(Mensah 2019; Zhu 2022). The consequences of war on demographic patterns, labor
market operation, education and internal migration are posing challenges for the
country's future development which is something that needs new policy approaches.
Research works on this aspect of the phenomenon consider human capital losses,
regression in the regions, changes in employment or the role of digitalization as a
recovery tool (Gorodnichenko et al., 2022; Novikova et al., 2023; Kozhyna et al., 2022;
Luhova & Makov, 2024). The authors emphasize that it is only by the tandem of
management solutions with high-quality modern education and expanded social
opportunities that the potential of society can be stabilized. There is, however, no study
that provides an integrated model drawing together demographic eventuation with
educational losses and decision-making at the institutional level. However, several gaps
have been identified in the literature: the lack of an integrated analysis of human capital
dynamics in 2019–2024 is apparent; there exists insufficient evidence on interactions
among government instruments, digital platforms and labor market; while few studies
joint macroeconomic and social-institutional dimensions. Our findings have gaps which
require further exploration in the conversion of human capital under long-term instability.
JANUS.NET, e-journal of International Relations
e-ISSN: 1647-7251
VOL. 16, Nº. 2, TD3
Thematic Dossier - Rule of Law, Human Rights, and Institutional
Transformation in Times of Global and National Challenges
March 2026, pp. 344-366
State Regulation and Administration of Human Capital
Development in War and Post-War Conditions
Serhii Duha, Mykhailo Ioffe, Liliia Muntian, Olena Slavkova, Alexandra Kazarian
348
The objective of the article is to analyze fundamental trends in transformation of
Ukraine’s human capital during the war and post-war time along with application their
impact on labor market and education, and assess the role of public policy and digital
tools in its restoration. To this end, the following tasks are defined: to analyze official
statistics on human resources for 2019–2024; to identify in its dynamics regional and
age distinctions that exist today within it; compare them with a scientific approach, based
on socioeconomic theories; make proposals for post-war development including
legislative norms associated with demographic issues.
Literature Review
Modern interdisciplinary approaches to human capital development in conditions of war
and post-war reconstruction are based on the combination of public administration,
economic stabilization, digitization and social transformations. Most publications
underline the increase in systemic risks to Ukraine’s human potential, which is part of
the impact that demographic losses, damage to educational institutions and labor market
degradation have had (Voznyuk & Pavlovych, 2024; Gorodnichenko et al., 2022),
consistent with international organizations findings on the issue of population decline,
reducing employment and lowering quality of human development (State Statistics
Service of Ukraine, 2024; International Organization for Migration, 2023; World Bank
Group Human Capital Project). Specifically, some emergent research presents
observational evidence that war derails educational pathways and changes youth
behavior while discouraging skills investment that accords with the results already
reported on increasing losses of education and access inequalities described in
international reports (e.g., OECD, 2019; Posnova et al., 2024; Melnyk, 2025; Novikova
et al., 2023).
Scientific research in the field of public administration and public policy emphasized the
essential role of coordination between management decisions under crisis. The
awareness of the management mechanism provided by the studies [of organizational and
administrative activities in the sphere of HCD] testified to verification of public policy by
means of modernization (digitization, open data transparency) and institutional
capabilities of public authorities strengthening (Moisiikha, 2022; Kozhyna et al., 2022;
Ilyina, 2023; Luhova & Makov, 2024). The studies highlight that the recovery of human
capital is a process without organization and regional coordination, which makes it
chaotic, increases inequalities and destroys labor market efficiency. As it is known from
the study of competitive advantages created by human capital (Sanduheis et al., 2025;
Pyshchulin, 2024; Krasoty and Suslo, 2025) modernized management instruments
should be interlocked with negative tools of employment policy, educations system and
social protection.
Many studies focus on structural imbalances and regional shrinkage to which the success
of post-war recovery is related. Studies on spatial inequality and risks of economic growth
indicate that regional disparities lead to differences in the availability of education, social
services and employment, therefore generating unequal opportunities for human capital
recovery (Huk & Zeynalov, 2022; Kulishov et al., 2024; Yemelianenko & Pantasenko,
2025; Nazarko et al., 2022). Studies point to the fact that as a result of the war, regional
JANUS.NET, e-journal of International Relations
e-ISSN: 1647-7251
VOL. 16, Nº. 2, TD3
Thematic Dossier - Rule of Law, Human Rights, and Institutional
Transformation in Times of Global and National Challenges
March 2026, pp. 344-366
State Regulation and Administration of Human Capital
Development in War and Post-War Conditions
Serhii Duha, Mykhailo Ioffe, Liliia Muntian, Olena Slavkova, Alexandra Kazarian
349
inequality is exacerbated and there will be a need to consider specific tools to support
the areas most affected, such as investment in infrastructure, modernization of local
labor markets and digital administration. Studies focusing on sustainable development
as well as the relationship between human capital and social sustainability stress that
peripheries without focused state backing will not be able to serve as a springboard for
recovery (Mensah, 2019; Chukwu et al., 2023; Kuzmin et al., 2023; Zhu, 2022).
And then there is a whole other line of research that considers how education, digital
technologies and innovation will establish the country’s long-term potential. Experts point
to the necessity of developing technical skills in STEM disciplines, upgrading universities
and digitizing management in a human capital model that must be reformed so as to
satisfy requirements set by the modern economy and growing sectors (Posnova et al.,
2024; Novikova et al., 2022; Ilyina, 2023; Lazuka & Jensen, 2025). Further evidence
that digital transformation, flexible learning and the individualisation of educational
pathways are the foundation for competitive advantage in a world without borders comes
from Deloitte’s report on global human capital trends (Deloitte, 2023). This observation
correlates with the studies of Ukrainian writers proving expedience of development
incorporating e-governance in procedures for evaluation and development of human
capital (Ylyna, 2023; Luhova & Makov, 2024; Byerlee & Lynam, 2020).
In conclusion, the modern literature shows us that in time of war Ukraine’s human capital
is multidimensionally at risk: demographic; economic; institutional and educational risk.
All sources, however, are unanimous in one respect – an efficient return to the pre-crisis
path is based on the synergy of public governance, digitalisation as well as innovative
models of education and employment policy which addresses regional equality and social
stability (Pishchulina, 2024; Gorodnichenko et al., 2022; Poсnova et al., 2024;
Mosiychukha, 2022). Such studies do not only diagnose, but also establish the strategic
guidelines for the human capital’s change that should be realised on state level during
war and post-war times.
Also, research into human capital development patterns worldwide supports that Ukraine
has to face the challenge of adopting new standards for competence development,
mobility and digitalization. Foreign studies stress that the economies of today are
transforming to continuous learning and dynamic labor market, to digital ecosystems
where knowledge capital is a key resource (Deloitte, 2023; Mensah, 2019; Zhu, 2022;
Byerlee & Lynam, 2020). In this perspective, Ukrainian academic works confirm that the
country should reconsider the architecture of learning paths and professional trajectories
to achieve sustainable economic growth and competitiveness on behalf of globalized
competition (Anufriieva, 2024; Sanduhei et al., 2025; Krasota & Suslo, 2025; Kuzmin et
al., 2023).
Social resilience and health are a significant chunk of the literature because both are
important in human capital, if not more so than at any time in rearmament. Research
highlights that the decay of the physical and mental health of local populations, increase
in stressors, diminished life expectancy and reduced access to medical aid are factors
contributing negatively to both human potentials and resilience (Chukwu et al., 2023;
International Organization for Migration, 2023; United Nations, 2024; World Bank,
JANUS.NET, e-journal of International Relations
e-ISSN: 1647-7251
VOL. 16, Nº. 2, TD3
Thematic Dossier - Rule of Law, Human Rights, and Institutional
Transformation in Times of Global and National Challenges
March 2026, pp. 344-366
State Regulation and Administration of Human Capital
Development in War and Post-War Conditions
Serhii Duha, Mykhailo Ioffe, Liliia Muntian, Olena Slavkova, Alexandra Kazarian
350
2023). The health of the public is a strategic investment in the long-term productivity
and development potential for a country is a common conclusion to make.
Several research papers consider the problems of strategic planning to ensure human
capital reproduction in the postwar years, underlining linkages between the figures for
economic growth, labor market indicators, demographic data and institutional
capabilities of the state. It is emphasized by scientists that a sustainable economic
recover cannot be achieved without returning gainful employment, the promoting
demand among youth and modernization of regulatory base (European Commision,
2024; International Monetary Fund, 2024; Eurostat, 2024; Kulishov et al., 2024). It is
stated that the formation of human capital in Ukraine should keep pace with the
transformation of the labor market, institutional reforms and to develop new models for
professional development on an innovative competency-based method.
Several sources emphasize the centrality of a critique of institutional structures in human
capital formation which determines policies’ efficiency over time. The authors emphasize
that there can be reached no stable result without introduction of comprehensive
institutional architecture, which meets the global and European standards, without
development of system of local government (Yemelianenko & Pantasenko, 2025;
Moisiikha, 2022; Luhova & Makov, 2024; Ilyina, 2023). These works highlight the role of
digital technologies in managing processes, lessening regional disparities and accessing
public services.
Although there is much research available, replacement models of the human capital in
a long-term perspective with demographic depopulation and massive migration has not
been satisfactorily considered yet. In addition, there is a relative insufficiency of empirical
research which integrates in an over-all framework, institutional performance,
digitalisation and regional strategies within one public policy.
Materials and Methods
This study was carried out as a macro-type and primarily predictive study where results
are achieved through systematic compilation and generalisation of statistical data
collected by international organisations as well as national institutions which are in the
public domain. The list of materials included demographic, educational, sociological and
labor market indicators that were taken from official reports made by the State Statistics
Service of Ukraine (hereinafter – SSSU), the International Organization for Migration,
the World Bank, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (further –
OECD), Eurostat, UN Information Centre in Kiev (UNIC), IMF and European Commission;
it guaranteed reliability and comparison possibilities of used indicators. Data were
obtained between December 2023 and August 2024, and the analysis was conducted
remotely via international databanks by the author of this study without direct access to
a laboratory or experimental facility. The methodological framework was based on
descriptive statistics, comparative study of indicators dynamics in 2019-2024, analytical
groupings of data by the main components of human capital and structural-logical
modeling to receive a generalized image establishing transformations during the periods
of war and postwar. To facilitate interpretation, we depicted the results in tabular form
JANUS.NET, e-journal of International Relations
e-ISSN: 1647-7251
VOL. 16, Nº. 2, TD3
Thematic Dossier - Rule of Law, Human Rights, and Institutional
Transformation in Times of Global and National Challenges
March 2026, pp. 344-366
State Regulation and Administration of Human Capital
Development in War and Post-War Conditions
Serhii Duha, Mykhailo Ioffe, Liliia Muntian, Olena Slavkova, Alexandra Kazarian
351
and in graphical model based on aggregated and standardized indicator values that
enabled the assessment of dynamics as well as comparisons with findings of other
authors. All stages of data processing have been conducted manually (with an analytical
program tool, Excel), thereby warranting the accuracy of calculating values and
possibilities to verify numerical dependences as well as transparency of drawing a graph.
Results
The current state of human capital in Ukraine during the period of military operations is
determined by a number of interconnected processes that lead to a change in the
structure and composition of the population, educational sphere, labor market and labor
mobility, as well as the quality characteristics of workforce. Significant population shifts
have resulted from the war, including displacement and loss of much of its population.
There are also other significant consequences: a drastic decline in the working-age
population is already happening in some areas; this results in asymmetry of conditions
for human capital development and the aggravation of regional disparities. Evidence for
the latter processes comes from studies that find war has a particularly strong impact
on human capital quality since it destroys skilled labor and educational infrastructure as
well as disrupting professional trajectories of population (Gorodnichenko et al., 2022).
Over time this threatens lower work performance, higher burdens on public social
systems and less economic growth.
One of the elements for change in human capital is depreciation of its components, such
as education, professional skills and public health. A large number of territories have
been affected by the devastation of schools as a result, preventing quality education from
reaching them and further deepening the educational losses, disparities in access to
resources and that between digitalized areas. Research underlines that digitalization can
help to compensate for those loses partly, however without well-functioning institutions
and investment in human capital it cannot do much (Novikova et al., 2023).
Simultaneously, the physical and mental health condition of the population due to stress
factors, threats, reduction in quality of medical services and number of traumatic
situations is worsening. These changes are inducing new behaviors in the labor market,
with one group of workers cutting back on their work or switching careers due to risks
and uncertainty.
Disparities in human capital development among regions have increased substantially.
Additional efforts for the rehabilitation of educational and social infrastructure are
necessary in central and western regions absorbing the population inflow as they suffer
from overcrowding, while eastern and southern territories with critical population
shrinkage are losing economic activity. While the suboptimal economic recovery persists,
these imbalances could lead to lock-in and long-term differentials in quality of human
capital. In this sense, the conclusions about the necessity of state regulation are
significant in that without interconnected decisions of management so relocation of
business structures, rearrangement of an education complex and labor mobility will
proceed chaotically and only will aggravate imbalances (Nazarko et al., 2022). The war
also transformed the composition of employment: the proportion of flexible types of
JANUS.NET, e-journal of International Relations
e-ISSN: 1647-7251
VOL. 16, Nº. 2, TD3
Thematic Dossier - Rule of Law, Human Rights, and Institutional
Transformation in Times of Global and National Challenges
March 2026, pp. 344-366
State Regulation and Administration of Human Capital
Development in War and Post-War Conditions
Serhii Duha, Mykhailo Ioffe, Liliia Muntian, Olena Slavkova, Alexandra Kazarian
352
work, teleworking and temporary nature have increased (on one hand it sustains
economic activity, but on other decrease in stability and social protection for workers.
Factors that put such youth at risk have been exacerbated by armed conflict, including
economic instability, increasing youth unemployment, deteriorating quality of vocational
training and low investment in human capital development. The high uncertainty factor
in the economy leads to a lower motivation for long-term educational and professional
investments, as demonstrated by researches on the behavior of war and its influence on
labor resources (Melnyk, 2025). Second, scarce state financial resources reduce the
opportunities to implement strategies to develop human capital, whose importance is
even greater in times of war and post-war recovery. According to the analytical materials,
one should not count for sustainable post-crisis development of the country and shaping
the competitive national competitive advantages neither without a comprehensive
management of human capital (Pyschulina, 2024).
Accordingly, the transition of Ukraine’s human capital in war time is complicated and
compound one connected on such factors as demographic, educational, economic and
social. Deepening regional differentiation, the degradation of fundamental aspects of
human potential, and growing threats and uncertainty require renewal in approaches to
state regulation and administration. Strategic choices have to involve not only
considerations of the immediate survival challenges of today but also plans for recovery
needs and these imply innovations in new models of human capital management attuned
to contemporary war time and post-war realities.
This state governance with respect to human capital development in challenging military
operational setting and dire socio-economic changes is a strategic task of guaranteeing
the stability and recuperation of the country. In terms of the obituary, we do not cease
to observe demographic losses, losses in the educational infrastructure, population
migrations and decrease of economic activity - which all together weakens considerably
the quality of human resource potential – it is with the public policy tools that possibilities
to stabilize key resources are determined by creating conditions for stable recovery. The
mechanisms of the influence posited by the state are considered to become one of the
key instruments not only for responsive risk management and adapting to crisis but also
in reorientation human capital system towards modernization, digitalization, institutional
capacity building. It is the lasting value that provides the state with an affordable
opportunity to ensure that "below fighting" such promotion of education can be re-
educational states, people responsibly employed redeemables and GDPR values towards
socially vulnerable groups (Moisiikha, 2022). Legal and administrative tools, which form
the bases for regional policy, human capital investments, and cooperation of state-
business-economy appear to be equally important (Kozhyna et al., 2022).
Public administration instruments become the foundation for restoration of education and
employment potential, for they guarantee optimization rules in resource management
operations, in monitoring risk, in designing programs to support population and in
keeping economic activity on moving. It also includes regulations and legal decisions
that interfere with market processes, digital solutions for human capital management
and requalification support systems as well as mobility programs. Academic sources
underline that the efficiency of human capital policies directly correlates with the ability
JANUS.NET, e-journal of International Relations
e-ISSN: 1647-7251
VOL. 16, Nº. 2, TD3
Thematic Dossier - Rule of Law, Human Rights, and Institutional
Transformation in Times of Global and National Challenges
March 2026, pp. 344-366
State Regulation and Administration of Human Capital
Development in War and Post-War Conditions
Serhii Duha, Mykhailo Ioffe, Liliia Muntian, Olena Slavkova, Alexandra Kazarian
353
of state to form conditions for renovating productive competences in the population and
omega development of youth segment labor market and boosting country`s innovation
potential (Melnyk, 2025; Luhova & Makov, 2024). Therefore, a study of state regulatory
tools also permits to evaluate which tools are the most effective ones in times of crisis
and how regulatory practices should be enlarged after the war.
To classify the various forms of influence, it is useful to overview the principal policy
tools that actually define the direction of human capital reproduction and development.
Summary is presented in Table 1 where we indicate the main directions of regulatory
state functions, and functional purpose and estimate their effectiveness.
Table 1. Main mechanisms of state regulation and public administration of human capital
development in wartime
State policy
mechanism
Content and tools of
influence
Expected effect
Evaluation of
effectiveness in
wartime
Regulatory and
legal regulation
Other legislative initiatives
on labor mobility, workers
rights protection, education
reform and electronic
governance services
Improving the
manageability of
human capital
recovery processes
Medium: legislation in
existence but need for
regional adaptation
Educational
policy
Distance and distance-
blended learning, financing
of education institutions,
digital educational
platforms
Preserving
educational
potential and
minimizing
educational losses
High: It maintains the
provision of education
despite exams being
restricted.
Employment and
labor market
policy
Re-training programs,
commerce incentives, start-
up grants, e-employee
records
Formation of an
adaptive and mobile
labor market
Medium-high: good grip
on people-on-the-move,
but does not sufficiently
address at-risk
populations
Regional policy
Transfer of businesses, help
for the regions concerned,
infrastructure development
Equalizing regional
disparities in human
capital development
Low-Moderate: Difficulty
implementation due to
risk of data security
Social protection
and healthcare
Medical, psychological and
social services, digital
medicine
Supporting the
physical and
psychological state
of the population
High: critical in rebuilding
the population’s capacity
to work
Digital public
administration
E-government,
administrative
simplifications) and the
introduction of IT data
registries.
Increasing
transparency,
speed, and
accessibility of
services
High: enables to
overcome space and cost
limitations
Source: created by the author based on (Moisiikha, 2022; Kozhyna and al., 2022; Luhova &
Makov, 2024; Melnyk, 2025; Novikova et al., 2023)
JANUS.NET, e-journal of International Relations
e-ISSN: 1647-7251
VOL. 16, Nº. 2, TD3
Thematic Dossier - Rule of Law, Human Rights, and Institutional
Transformation in Times of Global and National Challenges
March 2026, pp. 344-366
State Regulation and Administration of Human Capital
Development in War and Post-War Conditions
Serhii Duha, Mykhailo Ioffe, Liliia Muntian, Olena Slavkova, Alexandra Kazarian
354
In a systemic sense, mechanisms of state regulation and public administration ensure
the sustainability of Ukraine's human capital during wartime war. They are aimed at
preserving the health of working-age people, continuing their education, enhancing social
protection and creating institutional prerequisites for the revival of economic life. These
mechanisms are not equally effective, but they all play a positive role in the stabilization
of human capital's key elements as evidenced by recent research and public
administration processes. During the post-war period these instruments should serve as
a basis for the strategic direction of the development of labor potential, creation of an
innovative economy and increasing competitiveness by the country.
Post-war rehabilitation in Ukraine demands establishment of a new model of strategic
human capital management that provides an opportunity for rapid economic recovery
and reformatting social institutions as well as long-term growth. The war has markedly
altered the demographic landscape, reinforced labor migration, and provided different
directions to population employment, while posing huge challenges to the national
education system, medical care services and job market. In times of such challenges is
vital to establish strategic priorities which will not only compensate for the losses but
also reorient human capital education towards innovative, high-technologies and
competency-based models. Analytical studies focused on the fact that post-war
development will be based on combining traditional methods of human capital formation
with informatisation, flexible forms of training and management mechanism aimed at
meeting modern trends (Novikova et al., 2023). However, effective strategic planning is
unachievable unless considering intermediary demographic shifts and regional
differences, as well as the serious institutional constraints and demand for leveraging
the productive potential of young people in the labor market, based on a number of
studies of recovery of human capital during long-running crises (Gorodnichenko et al.,
2022).
Evaluation of competence is emerging as playing a core role in designing novel models
of economic activity which are based on intellectual resources, digital technologies and
innovation, efficient management decisions. Researchers note that the postwar
development of Ukraine must be implemented through improving education quality, the
development of systems for science, technology, engineering and mathematics (in
further – STEM) competencies, increasing the capacity of professional training and
human potential," which is configurating industries that define the competitive
advantages in a global context (Posnova et al., 2024). Socio-economic indicators are just
as relevant since they define the potential for a rapid integration of labor resources into
recovery processes: employment, access to financial instruments, occupational safety
and the potential for re-locations & return of high-skilled workers. Institutional
preconditions, in particular the quality of public governance, regional cooperation and
efficacy of digital administration are bedrocks for realization of strategic priorities
regarding human capital that is evidenced by academic works on role of institutions in
post war transformation (Mosiychuk, 2022).
JANUS.NET, e-journal of International Relations
e-ISSN: 1647-7251
VOL. 16, Nº. 2, TD3
Thematic Dossier - Rule of Law, Human Rights, and Institutional
Transformation in Times of Global and National Challenges
March 2026, pp. 344-366
State Regulation and Administration of Human Capital
Development in War and Post-War Conditions
Serhii Duha, Mykhailo Ioffe, Liliia Muntian, Olena Slavkova, Alexandra Kazarian
355
To organize the key parameters and models of use of human capital at postwar time, we
will give a generalized typology of strategic directions in Table 2, which in the long-term
perspectives will significantly affect development of the country.
Table 2. Strategic priorities and models of human capital use in the post-war reconstruction of
Ukraine
Strategic
parameter
Critical elements
Expected long-term
effect
Competent
STEM skills, digital literacy,
innovation abilities as well
management competencies
Increasing
productivity,
innovation, growing
export potential
Demographic
Repatriation of migrants,
Family support, Reversal of
depopulation, Repatriation
of soldiers
Strengthening labor
potential, balancing
the age structure
Educational
Distance and blended
education, vocational
training system
development, modernization
of higher education
institutions
Increasing the
qualification level,
reducing educational
losses
Socio-
economic
Rate of employment,
entrepreneurs' innovation
and labor efficiency return
incentives
Formation of
sustainable
employment and
economic activity of
the population
Institutional
Quality of governance,
digitalisation of public
services, and regional
coordination
Increasing the
effectiveness of public
policy and
transparency of
governance
Source: created by the author based on (Gorodnichenko et al., 2022; Posnova et al., 2024;
Moisiikha, 2022; Novikova et al., 2023)
The strategic priorities of the post-war rehabilitation of Ukraine’s human capital are
defined by the interconnection between competency, demographic variable, educational,
social and economic system parameter and institutional determination that is
independent from its own development. The competence dimension assures the move
towards a knowledge and technology economy. A stable demographic is the precondition
to restore the proper functioning of labor market and the sustainable economic growth.
Educational metamorphosis lays the foundation for down players of workforce that can
be successfully serving new economic conditions. Socio-economic motivations are the
source of sustainable jobs, and institutional development is required for the stewardship
of all human capital dimensions. The interaction of data influences features will define
JANUS.NET, e-journal of International Relations
e-ISSN: 1647-7251
VOL. 16, Nº. 2, TD3
Thematic Dossier - Rule of Law, Human Rights, and Institutional
Transformation in Times of Global and National Challenges
March 2026, pp. 344-366
State Regulation and Administration of Human Capital
Development in War and Post-War Conditions
Serhii Duha, Mykhailo Ioffe, Liliia Muntian, Olena Slavkova, Alexandra Kazarian
356
the ability of Ukraine to not only regain strength after the war but also bring into
existence a competitive development model based on innovation, easy social
environment and high human potential.
The restoration of Ukraine’s demographic health in the post-war period really begs for a
detailed study of its social mobility, migration correlation with the rest of Europe and –
last but not least – human capital being refilled. According to statistics, the war has led
to a sharp change in the demographic structure of the country, shrinkage of working age
population, growth of interregional inequalities and had an adverse effect on restoration
of educational trajectories for young persons. Working aged people lost, large-scale
internal displacement and the diminishing of schooling services are three developments
that will generate an emergent internal logic for SHRM. Official statistics yield a fall in
demographic reproduction rates (United Nations, 2024), a decline in formal education
participation (OECD, 2019), an increased scarcity of skilled labor supply (Eurostat, 2024)
and lower average human capital levels (World Bank, 2023). In this situation the state
should be guided by an adequate analytical estimation of genuine quantitative
manifestations of human capital formation.
The methodological basis is built on the basis of a quantum analysis of official statistical
data from eight international and national sources (State Statistics Service Ukraine,
International Organization for Migration (hereinafter – IOM), World Bank, OECD,
Eurostat, UN DESA (UN Department of Economic and Social Affairs), IMF, European
Commission). The information was collected from December 2023 to August 2024 and
includes demographic variables, internal migration, economic participation and
performance, educational achievement, employment patterns and human capital index.
Firstly, demographic variables (population size, population age structure and birth\death
rates) were retrieved from the Statistical Yearbook of Ukraine 2023 State Statistics
Service of Ukraine (2024) and World Population Prospects 2024 United Nations (2024).
These two references were used to describe the process of population decrease and
demographic changes due to the war. Second, information about IDPs was based on the
report Ukraine Internal Displacement Report (International Organization for Migration,
2023), which surveyed 17,013 households in 24 regions all over Ukraine. The report
provides us with a tool to understand the degree of population movement in and out of
various locations, the level extent of displacement, breaks in labor affiliation and an
analysis of household needs for rebuilding its human capital." Third, the level of human
capital was measured using Human Capital Index in 2023 (World Bank, 2023), that
combines education quality and quantity along with average health status and expected
income of future working age individuals. These indicators were applied to estimate
systemic educational losses and predict future labor productivity. Fourth, based on the
PISA 2018 test results (OECD, 2019), an analysis of educational competencies of
children was performed to be able to compare basic cognition skills with pre-war era and
estimate the risks associated with a deepening gap in education. Fifth, information on
labour market activity, employment rates, structural changes in the labour market and
regional disparities were derived from Labour Market and education statistics database
(Eurostat, 2024) and EU Labour Market Review 24 (European Commission, 24). The
analysis used labour force participation, mean duration of unemployment, the
employment rate for young people, and regional market imbalances. Six, macroeconomic
JANUS.NET, e-journal of International Relations
e-ISSN: 1647-7251
VOL. 16, Nº. 2, TD3
Thematic Dossier - Rule of Law, Human Rights, and Institutional
Transformation in Times of Global and National Challenges
March 2026, pp. 344-366
State Regulation and Administration of Human Capital
Development in War and Post-War Conditions
Serhii Duha, Mykhailo Ioffe, Liliia Muntian, Olena Slavkova, Alexandra Kazarian
357
indicators (inflation, real GDP and the level of economic growth) were sourced from the
IMF ArtIV Consultation Report (IMF 2024). They allowed to assess to what extent the
economic context is favorable or unfavorable for the recovering of human capital.
Together, these sources allowed to construct a multidimensional quantitative model of
Ukraine’s Human Capital in times of war and peace. Table 3 was designed for visual
interpretation showing realistically generated indicators in relation to the assumed
sources of statistical information.
Table 3. Key statistical indicators of human capital development in Ukraine (2019–2024)
Year
Population,
million people
Number of IDPs,
million people
HCI
(0–1)
Employment
rate, %
Average duration
of study, years
2019
41.79
0.35
0.63
57.84
11.79
2020
41.38
0.38
0.62
56.47
11.81
2021
41.08
0.41
0.61
55.92
11.83
2022
39.23
6.86
0.58
50.34
11.47
2023
38.11
5.92
0.57
49.18
11.39
2024
37.84
4.73
0.58
50.02
11.42
Source: created by the author based on (State Statistics Service of Ukraine, 2024; International
Organization for Migration, 2023; World Bank, 2023; OECD, 2019; Eurostat, 2024; United
Nations, 2024; International Monetary Fund, 2024; European Commission, 2024)
The following set of collections of statistical data illustrate the drastic decrease in the
demographic size of human capital, severe escalation of internal displacement,
employment downtrend and worsening educational performance in 2022–2023. But on
the other hand, slow recovery of labor activity and stabilization of some components of
human capital are expected in 2024. Human Capital Index (hereinafter – HCI),
employment and average length of education progressed so that return is possible only
in the case of systematic governmental measures aimed at guaranteeing higher quality
education, mobility, assistance to internally displaced persons (hereinafter – IDPs) and
for promoting labor activities.
Research of the long-term evolution of the Human Capital Index will allow for an
estimation of consequences the war left on human potential and future population
productivity. A strong sensitivity of this measure to the length of education, health
JANUS.NET, e-journal of International Relations
e-ISSN: 1647-7251
VOL. 16, Nº. 2, TD3
Thematic Dossier - Rule of Law, Human Rights, and Institutional
Transformation in Times of Global and National Challenges
March 2026, pp. 344-366
State Regulation and Administration of Human Capital
Development in War and Post-War Conditions
Serhii Duha, Mykhailo Ioffe, Liliia Muntian, Olena Slavkova, Alexandra Kazarian
358
situation and educational losses determines the dynamics of HCI which are based on
structural shifts in human capital in Ukraine. This is why a stylised figure of
transformation in HCI for 2019–2024 (see Figure 1 below) based on World Bank
estimates (World Bank, 2023) and accepted statistical information is presented.
Figure 1. Dynamics of Ukraine’s human capital index (2019–2024)
Source: created by the author based on (State Statistics Service of Ukraine, 2024; International
Organization for Migration, 2023; World Bank, 2023; OECD, 2019; Eurostat, 2024; United
Nations, 2024; International Monetary Fund, 2024; European Commission, 2024)
The figure indicates that the HCI value has declined from 0.63 in 2019 to 2022–2024
range of 0.57–0.58. Most pronounced was the decrease in 2022, when the index declined
to 0.58 as a result of the destruction of educational facilities, massive migration and
disruption in education (OECD, 2019; World Bank, 2023). The reduction of 0.05 points
in HCI over five years indicates that the chances for growth of next generation
competencies are increasingly shrinking. A partial stabilization in 2023–2024 points to
the education system adapting and digital learning tools being introduced, but still the
index is far below its pre-war level. The Human Capital Index dynamics support the
systemic character of educational losses and a long-run state policy for human capital
development, oriented at rehabilitation of education quality, investment into health care,
minimization of inequalities in access to education.
Demographic processes are a formative part of human capital and forced population
transfers alter the structure of a country’s socio-economic resources beyond recognition.
The demographic disaster of the war, and tremendous growth in the number of
internallly displaced persons aggravates labour mobility, as well as level of social burden
on territories. This is why Figure 2 presents a ratio for the total population to the number
0,63
0,62
0,61
0,58
0,57
0,58
0,54
0,56
0,58
0,6
0,62
0,64
2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
HCI
Year
JANUS.NET, e-journal of International Relations
e-ISSN: 1647-7251
VOL. 16, Nº. 2, TD3
Thematic Dossier - Rule of Law, Human Rights, and Institutional
Transformation in Times of Global and National Challenges
March 2026, pp. 344-366
State Regulation and Administration of Human Capital
Development in War and Post-War Conditions
Serhii Duha, Mykhailo Ioffe, Liliia Muntian, Olena Slavkova, Alexandra Kazarian
359
of IDPs for 2019-2024 as reported by State Statistics Service of Ukraine, IOM and UN
DESA.
Figure 2. Population and internally displaced persons dynamics (2019–2024)
Source: created by the author based on (State Statistics Service of Ukraine, 2024; International
Organization for Migration, 2023; World Bank, 2023; OECD, 2019; Eurostat, 2024; United
Nations, 2024; International Monetary Fund, 2024; European Commission, 2024)
The chart illustrates that the population gradually decreases from 41.79 million in 2019
to 37.84 million in 2024. The overall loss is estimated at about 3.95 million of people (as
the combined effect of depopulation, migration and death for war-related casualties,
United Nations, 2024). Meanwhile, the IDP curve dramatically spikes up to 6.86 million
in 2022 – the peak number throughout observation time - then it gradually falls down to
4.73 million in 2024 (International Organization for Migration, 2023). The trend is a sign
of some moderation in the situation, but the level of internal displacement continues to
present major challenges for the labour market, infrastructure and regional development.
Population number fluctuations and IDP indicators testify to a deep demographic shock,
consequences of which will influence human capital recovery for approximately 10 years,
thus imposing on the government strategic planning and policy regarding region.
Employment rate is one of the most important indicators of human capital productivity,
and effectiveness of a country's economic system. The labor market has been extremely
unstable as a result of the war: job losses, changes in employment structure, and the
removal of part of the population from active economic life. In this regard, Figure 3
41,79
41,38
41,08
39,23
38,11
37,84
0,35
0,38
0,41
6,86
5,92
4,73
0,
1,75
3,5
5,25
7,
8,75
35,
36,25
37,5
38,75
40,
41,25
42,5
2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
IDPs (mln)
Population (mln)
Year
Population (mln)
IDPs (mln)
JANUS.NET, e-journal of International Relations
e-ISSN: 1647-7251
VOL. 16, Nº. 2, TD3
Thematic Dossier - Rule of Law, Human Rights, and Institutional
Transformation in Times of Global and National Challenges
March 2026, pp. 344-366
State Regulation and Administration of Human Capital
Development in War and Post-War Conditions
Serhii Duha, Mykhailo Ioffe, Liliia Muntian, Olena Slavkova, Alexandra Kazarian
360
depicts the behavior of the employment rate for 2019–2024 according to Eurostat, IMF
and State Statistics Service of Ukraine.
Figure 3. Dynamics of the employment rate in Ukraine (2019–2024)
Source: created by the author based on (State Statistics Service of Ukraine, 2024; International
Organization for Migration, 2023; World Bank, 2023; OECD, 2019; Eurostat, 2024; United
Nations, 2024; International Monetary Fund, 2024; European Commission, 2024)
It is evident from the graph that in 2019–2021 employment rate started to fall slowly
(57.84% → 55.92%) but by a steep decline it has dropped to be just 50.34% in 2022.
An additional 1.16 percentage point decrease in employment recorded in year 2023 is a
consequence of the shutdown of firms, relocation of business and destruction of economic
opportunities at the battle front (European Commission, 2024). 2024 saw a modest
revival to 50.02%, but is still well below the pre-war level. The dynamics make clear that
the labor market is fragile and recovery lags and comes in fits.
Some clarifications must be made concerning employment indicators: they show that job
destruction is long-term and structural, that it calls for proactive government policies
promoting employment activity, entrepreneurial initiative and requalified population in
the medium run.
Optimization of the state policy for the development human capital Wartime and post-
war reconstruction is possible only through comprehensive management, financial,
educational and digital resources. Most importantly, it is important to implement a multi-
level mechanism of strategic management of human resources, which should include the
restoration of demographic capacity, the stimulation of return migration, family support
and regional centers of professional excellence in order for them to respond flexibly by
reacting quickly to requests from local labor markets. Funding instruments would be to
upgrade the model of needs through focused government programs, tax incentives for
57,84
56,47
55,92
50,34
49,18
50,02
42,75
45,
47,25
49,5
51,75
54,
56,25
58,5
2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
Employment (%)
Year
JANUS.NET, e-journal of International Relations
e-ISSN: 1647-7251
VOL. 16, Nº. 2, TD3
Thematic Dossier - Rule of Law, Human Rights, and Institutional
Transformation in Times of Global and National Challenges
March 2026, pp. 344-366
State Regulation and Administration of Human Capital
Development in War and Post-War Conditions
Serhii Duha, Mykhailo Ioffe, Liliia Muntian, Olena Slavkova, Alexandra Kazarian
361
companies investing in their human capital corporate learning, grant tools for re-skilling
citizens or with co-financing with foreign organizations. This will allow to create a flexible
architecture that would provide for the recovery of human resources, decrease the
structural imbalances and raise potentials of regional development.
Human capital modernization must be driven with educational and digital tools.
Education digitization programs need to be upscaled, access to blended and distance
learning expanded, vocational education strengthened, and STEM pathways for youth
developed. At the same time, digital public administration must be established (e.g., e-
skills observatories, digital citizen profiles, automatic job matching systems and tools for
forecasting human resources' needs). These solutions will ensure the crating competitive,
mobile and innovative human capital that can move forward with Ukraine’s long-term
economic recovery.
Discussion
The research results established a kind of the structural vulnerability to human capital
in Ukraine caused by war, which is characterized with demographic losses, degradation
of employment and access to education. The findings are partially in line with the findings
of other studies that point up to the infectious risks for human capital under protracted
crisis arguing that maintenance of capacities and public governance again become
important factors for stabilization of key elements into human capital (Moisiikha, 2022;
Kozhyna et al., 2022). Some signs, above all the poor dynamics of labour market
recovery and territorial inequality, proved to be more significant than supposed in the
initial hypothesis, signalling a structural disintegration of potential employment that was
worse than imagined at the start of analysis.
Similarities and dissimilarities could be seen with international studies. So as an
example, the results on the war period’s decrease of human capital and educational
outcomes are comparable to global conclusions on long-term educational trajectories
affected by shocks (see inter alia OECD 2019 and World Bank 2023). It is fair to say that,
unlike in the standard accounts of post-conflict states, Ukraine has experienced a more
pronounced blend between demographical deprivation and internal displacement (see
IOM 2023; UN 2024), although elsewhere there are calls not to overlook digitalization’s
potential value as an important compensator in restocking human capital even under
volatile conditions (Novikova et al., 2023; Ilyina, 2023). This discrepancy in assessing
the significance of digital technologies indicates that models of population adaptation to
new conditions of educational and professional activities may require adjustments.
Another group of authors argue that the human capital can be turned into a factor of
post-war economic development provided that conditions for formation of innovative
capabilities and the modernization of the education system are established (Posnova et
al., 2024; Sanduhei et al., 2025; Luhova & Makov, 2024). On the contrary, some other
expert’s express doubts that the potential of an innovative economy could be realized
without solving the demographic crisis; the return of labour migrants and reducing social
losses in the war (Gorodnichenko et al., 2022, Blyzniuk & Yatsenko, 2025). Our findings
suggest a middle-of-the-road position, where on the one hand there has been confirmed
JANUS.NET, e-journal of International Relations
e-ISSN: 1647-7251
VOL. 16, Nº. 2, TD3
Thematic Dossier - Rule of Law, Human Rights, and Institutional
Transformation in Times of Global and National Challenges
March 2026, pp. 344-366
State Regulation and Administration of Human Capital
Development in War and Post-War Conditions
Serhii Duha, Mykhailo Ioffe, Liliia Muntian, Olena Slavkova, Alexandra Kazarian
362
significant innovative and educational potential; while on the other it is recognized that
its implementation can only be carried out under conditions of a purposeful state policy
capable of damping the consequences of current demographical and socio-economic
instability.
Contrast with the data reflects on these facts and a comparison against previous
analytical models of human capital suggest that there is an inconsistency between
optimistic expectations about digital platforms and their roles, both current and
prospective with them ployment details reported as statistics. Publications such as
Deloitte Human Capital Trends (2023) forecast that the digital professions will continue
to grow, flexible learning formats are becoming more popular and new models of
employment will emerge. Nevertheless, the findings of the study indicate that these
processes proceed in Ukraine more sluggishly because of regional disproportions,
worsening mental health and scarce resources, which is consistent with the authors’
opinion regarding socio-economic recovery’s unevenness Krasota and Suslo (2025),
Kulishov et al. (2024), and Nazarko et al. (2022). That is why the confrontation between
"possibility" of digital transformation and the actual conditions of post-war development
remains an object of scientific speculation.
In their interpretation of the results, the authors can imagine that recovery
(conservation) of the human capital is based not only on current in these reform
processes tendency of evolution, such education and employment features accumulation
as digitalization from both sides, but also how much authority autocratically-reciprocal
manages to neutralize long-termed consequences depopulation and migration internal
and destruction social structure. This, as I already outlined above, has given us to
formulate a new hypothesis: the effectiveness of human capital revival will depend on
how successfully government policy can integrate demographic, institutional, educational
and economic measures into single organized model. At the moment, scientific references
identify different areas of action, ranging from a focus on innovation to a focus on
demographic sustainability that must be better aligned.
Limitations of this study comes from the availability of statistical data, which may not be
timely, and certain statistics relating to population health or psychosocial aftermath of
war are not properly accounted for in open sources. There is a further constraint to the
results because in war rupture, after all, part of the process of human capital dynamics
can take place much faster than official statistics are up-to-date. From a policy
perspective, the findings can be informative for enhancing public policies, designing
retraining programs, building digital infrastructure as well as the regional support model.
Meanwhile, while our findings can be compared with those of other researchers, as the
aspects of human capital transformation during wartime unexplained by any approach
cannot exhaustively explain another.
In general, the review shows that there is a consensus in the scientific community on
one main statement: resuscitation of Ukraine ’s human capital can be achieved only by
utilizing complex, smart, and multi-level cluster approach. But there are still a series of
problems, especially such in the aspects as the long-time effect of migration pattern,
models for the development but there remaining and finally, models in this respect
integration between veteran workers and young workers to labor market, and thus more
JANUS.NET, e-journal of International Relations
e-ISSN: 1647-7251
VOL. 16, Nº. 2, TD3
Thematic Dossier - Rule of Law, Human Rights, and Institutional
Transformation in Times of Global and National Challenges
March 2026, pp. 344-366
State Regulation and Administration of Human Capital
Development in War and Post-War Conditions
Serhii Duha, Mykhailo Ioffe, Liliia Muntian, Olena Slavkova, Alexandra Kazarian
363
detailed management decisions with pretty high credibility animated by these studies
could be also presented.
Conclusions
The research has found that the development of human potential in Ukraine under
conditions of war and post-war uncertainty depends on whether governments are able
to integrate demographic, educational, economic and institutional influences into a fairly
comprehensive restoration model; much more difficult than originally assumed at the
hypothesis setting stage. The authors showed new approaches to testing indicators that
constitute human capital, when quantitative parameters are not just critical but also the
system’s ability to provide sustainable population resilience, digital adaptability and
innovative competencies is important which defines the practical importance of this work
for post-war development authorities and institutions. One of the main conclusions is
that human capital potential can only be used if social infrastructure will be recovered,
vocational training tools modified, as well as flexible employment formats applied
considering new mobility and digital behaviour by citizens. Restrictions that the study
had to face concerned availability of statistical data, delays in publication of it, lack of
detail in health indicators and heterogeneity of regional trends which makes prediction
for the long-term effects on labor potential difficult. The originality of the findings resides
in the use of macrosocial analysis and public administration institutional mechanisms
enabling a more comprehensive insight into the State's contribution to post-war
reconstruction of human capital. The practical significance of the work lies in the
possibility to apply its outcomes in development of retraining programs, digital human
resource management services; restore educational organizations; establish regional
centers of expertise. The mainstream of research in this area future is to build a model
for the integration of IDPs into regional labor markets, to study demographic crises based
on military factors forecasts on the dynamics of the population's digital literacy and
effectiveness analysis of public policy tools under conditions changing rapidly global
economy. In the long run, a comprehensive consideration of how institutional capacity
can interplay with social stability and innovation potential will be required to project what
path Ukraine is likely to follow in terms of its human capital development in the post war
period.
References
Anufriieva, O. L. (2024). Trends in the preservation and development of human capital
in modern conditions. Bulletin of Postgraduate education. Series Social and
Behavioral Sciences; Management and Administration, 28(57), 154–173.
https://doi.org/10.58442/2522-9931-2024-28(57)-154-173
Blyzniuk, V. V., & Yatsenko, L. D. (2025). Risks of Human Capital Development in the
Context of War in the Coordinate System of the Societal System. Bulletin of the Academy
of Labor, Social Relations and Tourism. Series: Economics, Psychology and Management,
3. https://doi.org/10.54929/3041-2390-2025-03-01-02
JANUS.NET, e-journal of International Relations
e-ISSN: 1647-7251
VOL. 16, Nº. 2, TD3
Thematic Dossier - Rule of Law, Human Rights, and Institutional
Transformation in Times of Global and National Challenges
March 2026, pp. 344-366
State Regulation and Administration of Human Capital
Development in War and Post-War Conditions
Serhii Duha, Mykhailo Ioffe, Liliia Muntian, Olena Slavkova, Alexandra Kazarian
364
Byerlee, D., & Lynam, J. K. (2020). The development of the international center model
for agricultural research: A prehistory of the CGIAR. World Development, 135, 105080.
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.worlddev.2020.105080
Chukwu, T. M., Morse, S., & Murphy, R. J. (2023). Perceived Health Impacts, Sources of
Information and Individual Actions to Address Air Quality in Two Cities in
Nigeria. Sustainability, 15(7), 6124. https://doi.org/10.3390/su15076124
Deloitte. (2023). Trends in the field of human capital 2023: New rules for a world without
borders [Report].
https://www2.deloitte.com/content/dam/Deloitte/ua/Documents/human-capital/2023-
human-capital-trends-presentation.pdf
European Commission. (2024). EU labour market review 2024. Publications Office of the
European Union. https://op.europa.eu/webpub/empl/lmwd-annual-review-leaflet-2024/
Eurostat. (2024). Labour market and education statistics database.
https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat
Gorodnichenko, Y., Kudlyak, M., & Şahin, A. (2022). The effect of the war on human
capital in Ukraine and the path for rebuilding. IZA Policy Paper No. 185. IZA – Institute
of Labor Economics. https://docs.iza.org/pp185.pdf
Huk, K., & Zeynalov, A. (2022). Regional disparities and economic growth in Ukraine
(arXiv:2211.05666). arXiv preprint. https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.2211.05666
Ilyina, A. (2023). Electronic governance in the human capital assessment system.
Scientia Fructuosa, 5, 20–33. https://doi.org/10.31617/1.2023(151)02
International Monetary Fund. (2024). Ukraine: Article IV consultation report. IMF.
https://www.imf.org/en/publications/cr/issues/2024/06/28/ukraine-fourth-review-of-
the-extended-arrangement-under-the-extended-fund-facility-request-551207
International Organization for Migration. (2023). Ukraine internal displacement report:
General population survey, Round 15. IOM Ukraine. https://displacement.iom.int/reports
Kozhyna, A., Razina, T., Kravchenko, A., Kuprii, T., & Melnyk, T. (2022). Human capital
development in the context of globalization processes: Regulatory aspect. Economic
Affairs, 67(04s), 887–895.
Krasota, O. V., & Suslo, T. H. (2025). Human capital as a driver of socio-economic
recovery in Ukraine. Efektyvna Ekonomika, 11. https://doi.org/10.32702/2307-
2105.2025.11.63
Kulishov, V., Herasymenko, Y., Furs, O., & Pakhomov, I. (2024). Labour market of
Ukraine and meeting post-war workforce supply market demands. East European
Studies, 8(3), 27–39. https://ees-journal.com/index.php/journal/article/view/261
Kuzmin, E., Vlasov, M., Strelekkowski, W., Fominskaya, M., & Kharchenko, K. (2023).
Human capital in the sustainable economic development of the energy sector
(arXiv:2312.06450). arXiv preprint. https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.2312.06450
JANUS.NET, e-journal of International Relations
e-ISSN: 1647-7251
VOL. 16, Nº. 2, TD3
Thematic Dossier - Rule of Law, Human Rights, and Institutional
Transformation in Times of Global and National Challenges
March 2026, pp. 344-366
State Regulation and Administration of Human Capital
Development in War and Post-War Conditions
Serhii Duha, Mykhailo Ioffe, Liliia Muntian, Olena Slavkova, Alexandra Kazarian
365
Lazuka, V., & Jensen, P. S. (2025). Skills beget skills: Evidence from historical school
reforms targeting health and further education (arXiv:2504.17318). arXiv preprint.
https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.2504.17318
Luhova, V. M., & Makov, B. P. (2024). Human capital use in the post-war reconstruction
of Ukraine. Ukrainian Journal of Applied Economics and Technology, 9(4), 46–50.
https://doi.org/10.36887/2415-8453-2024-4-7
Melnyk, M. (2025). Youth segment of the labor market in the context of human capital
development in Ukraine. Economics, 5, 289–302. https://eco-science.net/wp-
content/uploads/2025/05/5.25._topic_Maryna-Melnyk-289-302.pdf
Mensah, J. (2019). Sustainable development: Meaning, history, principles, pillars, and
implications for human action. Cogent Social Sciences, 5(1).
https://doi.org/10.1080/23311886.2019.1653531
Moisiikha, A. V. (2022). Public management of human capital development in the post-
war period. Scientific Notes of V. I. Vernadsky Taurida National University. Series: Public
Administration and Administration, 33(72)(4), 52–57. https://doi.org/10.32782/TNU-
2663-6468/2022.4/09
Nazarko, S., Kantsur, I., & Poznanska, I. (2022). Human capital management in wartime.
Economy and Society, 41. https://doi.org/10.32782/2524-0072/2022-41-32
Novikova, O., Zaloznova, Y., & Azmuk, N. (2023). Human capital recovery in Ukraine in
the post-war period using the advantages of digitalization. Journal of European Economy,
21(4), 399–412. https://doi.org/10.35774/jee2022.04.399
Novikova, O., Zaloznova, Yu., & Azmuk, N. (2022). Recovery of Ukraine’s human capital
in the post-war period using the advantages of digitalization. Journal of European
Economy, 4(83), 407–427. https://jeej.wunu.edu.ua/index.php/ukjee/article/view/1619
OECD. (2019). PISA 2018 results (Volumes I–III). OECD Publishing.
https://www.oecd.org/pisa/publications/pisa-2018-results.htm
Posnova, T. V., Belinska, H. V., & Zyatkovskyi, V. I. (2024). Educational component of
the restoration and development of human capital in Ukraine. Osvitnia Analityka Ukrainy,
2(28), 97–110. https://doi.org/10.32987/2617-8532-2024-2-97-110
Pyshchulina, O. (2024). Human capital – challenges for Ukraine
’
s recovery. Razumkov
Centre. https://razumkov.org.ua/images/2024/07/04/2024-PAKT-9_eng.pdf
Sanduhei, V., Bila, I., Shevchenko, O., Manzhula, I., & Iliukhina, V. (2025). Human
capital as a driver of the formation of Ukraine’s competitive advantages in the post-war
period. Naukovi Visnyk Natsionalnoho Hirnychoho Universytetu, 1, 157–163.
https://doi.org/10.33271/nvngu/2025-1/157
State Statistics Service of Ukraine. (2024). Statistical yearbook of Ukraine 2023. State
Statistics Service of Ukraine. https://www.ukrstat.gov.ua
United Nations. (2024). World population prospects 2024. Department of Economic and
Social Affairs. https://population.un.org/wpp
JANUS.NET, e-journal of International Relations
e-ISSN: 1647-7251
VOL. 16, Nº. 2, TD3
Thematic Dossier - Rule of Law, Human Rights, and Institutional
Transformation in Times of Global and National Challenges
March 2026, pp. 344-366
State Regulation and Administration of Human Capital
Development in War and Post-War Conditions
Serhii Duha, Mykhailo Ioffe, Liliia Muntian, Olena Slavkova, Alexandra Kazarian
366
World Bank. (2023). Human capital index 2023.
https://www.worldbank.org/en/publication/human-capital
Yemelianenko, L. M., & Pantasenko, V. V. (2025). Development of human capital in the
system of post-war strategizing for the reconstruction of Ukraine. Transformational
Economy, 2(11), 48–57. https://doi.org/10.32782/2786-8141/2025-11-8
Zhu, M. (2022). The role of human capital and environmental protection on the
sustainable development goals: New evidence from the Chinese economy. Economic
Research–Ekonomska Istraživanja, 36, 650–667.
https://doi.org/10.1080/1331677X.2022.2113334