OBSERVARE
Universidade Autónoma de Lisboa
e-ISSN: 1647-7251
VOL. 16, Nº. 2, TD1
Thematic Dossier - Emerging Powers In-between
Global and Regional Organizations
December 2025
452
FROM MERIT TO MIGHT: RETHINKING EU ENLARGEMENT IN LIGHT OF
TÜRKIYE AND UKRAINE
SYLVIA TIRYAKI
tiryaki@bisla.sk
Associate Professor at Bratislava International School of Liberal Arts, Bratislava (Slovakia).
ORCID: 0009-0008-8709-7269
Abstract
This article examines the recent developments in the European Union’s (EU) enlargement
policy, arguing that the process has shifted from a primarily normative framework that
prioritised democracy and economic integration to one increasingly influenced by geopolitics
and security. Consequently, enlargement, a process historically characterised by its normative
conditionality, has become a key instrument of strategic autonomy, and its credibility depends
on reconciling the EU’s foundational values with the urgency of security priorities. The present
comparative case study of Türkiye and Ukraine analyses how geopolitical developments—
particularly Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine—have forced the EU to reevaluate its priorities
in the enlargement process. While Türkiye’s decades-long accession trajectory has stalled as
a result of political divergences and normative deficiencies, Ukraine’s candidacy has been
unprecedentedly fast despite war and economic fragility, highlighting the EU’s shift towards
geostrategic alignment. The study reveals a dual approach: fast-tracking candidates aligned
with security imperatives while sidelining others despite longstanding candidate status. This
raises critical questions about the coherence, credibility, and the role of normativity in the
future of EU enlargement. The article concludes that sustaining the effectiveness of
enlargement requires balancing geopolitical imperatives with the EU’s foundational values.
Keywords
EU enlargement, geopolitics, Türkiye, Ukraine, strategic autonomy.
Resumo
Este artigo analisa os recentes desenvolvimentos na política de alargamento da União
Europeia (UE), argumentando que o processo passou de um quadro principalmente
normativo, que priorizava a democracia e a integração económica, para um quadro cada vez
mais influenciado pela geopolítica e pela segurança. Consequentemente, o alargamento, um
processo historicamente caracterizado pela sua condicionalidade normativa, tornou-se um
instrumento fundamental de autonomia estratégica, e a sua credibilidade depende da
conciliação dos valores fundamentais da UE com a urgência das prioridades de segurança. O
presente estudo comparativo de caso da Turquia e da Ucrânia analisa como os
desenvolvimentos geopolíticos — particularmente a invasão da Ucrânia pela Rússia em 2022
— forçaram a UE a reavaliar as suas prioridades no processo de alargamento. Enquanto a
trajetória de adesão da Turquia, que se arrasta há décadas, estagnou como resultado de
divergências políticas e deficiências normativas, a candidatura da Ucrânia foi
excepcionalmente rápida, apesar da guerra e da fragilidade económica, destacando a
JANUS.NET, e-journal of International Relations
e-ISSN: 1647-7251
VOL. 16, Nº. 2, TD1
Thematic Dossier - Emerging Powers In-between Global and Regional Organizations
December 2025, pp. 452-468
From Merit to Might: Rethinking EU Enlargement in Light of Türkiye and Ukraine
Sylvia Tiryaki
453
mudança da UE para um alinhamento geoestratégico. O estudo revela uma abordagem dupla:
acelerar os candidatos alinhados com os imperativos de segurança, enquanto marginaliza
outros, apesar do seu estatuto de candidatos de longa data. Isto levanta questões críticas
sobre a coerência, a credibilidade e o papel da normatividade no futuro do alargamento da
UE. O artigo conclui que, para manter a eficácia do alargamento, é necessário equilibrar os
imperativos geopolíticos com os valores fundamentais da UE..
Palavras-chave
Alargamento da UE, geopolítica, Turquia, Ucrânia, autonomia estratégica.
How to cite this article
Tiryaki, Sylvia (2025). From Merit to Might: Rethinking EU Enlargement in Light of Türkiye and
Ukraine. Janus.net, e-journal of international relations. Thematic Dossier - Emerging Powers In-
between Global and Regional Organizations, VOL. 16, Nº. 2, TD1, December 2025, pp. 452-468.
https://doi.org/10.26619/1647-7251.DT0525.24
Article submitted on 04th July 2025 and accepted for publication on 19th September
2025.
JANUS.NET, e-journal of International Relations
e-ISSN: 1647-7251
VOL. 16, Nº. 2, TD1
Thematic Dossier - Emerging Powers In-between Global and Regional Organizations
December 2025, pp. 452-468
From Merit to Might: Rethinking EU Enlargement in Light of Türkiye and Ukraine
Sylvia Tiryaki
454
FROM MERIT TO MIGHT: RETHINKING EU ENLARGEMENT IN
LIGHT OF TÜRKIYE AND UKRAINE
SYLVIA TIRYAKI
Introduction
Since its beginning, the EU has framed enlargement as a normative project that embodies
its commitment to democracy, human rights, and the rule of law. Candidate status was
awarded to countries that met the Copenhagen criteria and had adopted the required
reforms to align with EU standards. However, the geopolitical reality of the 2020s, most
notably Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine, necessitates a major reassessment of this
normative model (Schwarz, 2025). It can be argued that enlargement has increasingly
become a tool of geopolitics, shaped by security, energy resilience, and institutional
stability.
This shift in priorities is especially visible in the accession trajectories of Türkiye and
Ukraine, which are examined here as case studies due to their strategic significance,
geopolitical context, and comparable size, despite differences in population and economic
capabilities.
1
Türkiye, historically a critical NATO ally and an official EU candidate since
1999, exemplifies the normative model’s limitations when strategic importance collides
with internal reforms and ideological divergence. Ukraine, by contrast, demonstrates how
geopolitical urgency—in this case, the threat to the European order—can override
conventional progression logic.
Comparing these two countries is not new in the enlargement literature. Earlier studies,
such as the monograph EU Accession Prospects for Turkey and Ukraine: Debates in New
Member States edited by Piotr Kaźmirkiewicz (2006b), noted that Türkiye appeared
institutionally closer to EU membership than Ukraine, which at the time remained outside
the accession framework. Yet, the situation has shifted dramatically. While Türkiye’s
candidacy has stagnated, Ukraine’s accession process has accelerated since 2022 despite
war and institutional fragility. This reversal underscores the EU’s transition from
conditionality-driven integration to strategic, security-oriented expansion. Moreover,
despite Türkiye’s larger size, both countries pose comparable challenges to the EU’s
absorption capacity, as admitting either would necessitate extensive institutional
reforms, particularly regarding unanimity in decision-making.
1
The area of Ukraine is 603 550 km2 and the area of Türkiye is 783 562 km2. The population of Ukraine is
estimated to be around 37 900 000, while population of Türkiye is more than double, at 85 372 377.
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VOL. 16, Nº. 2, TD1
Thematic Dossier - Emerging Powers In-between Global and Regional Organizations
December 2025, pp. 452-468
From Merit to Might: Rethinking EU Enlargement in Light of Türkiye and Ukraine
Sylvia Tiryaki
455
This article focuses on the EU’s enlargement trajectory from 2005 to 2025, assessing
how Türkiye’s stagnation and Ukraine’s acceleration reflect the shift from liberal-
democratic conditionality to geopolitical consolidation. It explores how public opinion,
bilateral agreements, and institutional discourse reinforce this reorientation, while
considering underlying biases, such as Islamophobia, that, though less explicit in
contemporary discourse, continue to shape perceptions of Türkiye’s candidacy. The paper
draws on the theoretical lens of geopolitical realism to situate enlargement within broader
debates on power politics and strategic autonomy. The purpose of this study is not to
evaluate which approach is preferable but to expose the nuances, tensions, and
inconsistencies in the EU’s evolving enlargement strategy and to consider their
implications for the credibility and coherence of enlargement as both policy and identity.
Geopolitical Realism and the Strategic Turn in EU Enlargement
From the outset, EU enlargement was framed as a project of liberal order-building. The
Commission’s 2005 strategy document stated that its primary purpose was to “ensure
security, stability and prosperity on its own continent and further afield,” noting that
“[a]ll European citizens benefit from having neighbours that are stable democracies and
prosperous market economies,” (Commission of the European Communities, 2005, p. 2).
Security, in this conception, was the by-product of democratic transformation and market
integration. Two decades later, this logic has been inverted: stability is no longer
expected to emerge automatically from liberal conditionality but rather has become the
primary rationale for enlargement itself.
Geopolitical realism
This article interprets this reversal through the lens of geopolitical realism, a framework
increasingly applied in the analysis of EU foreign policy (Bosse, 2024; Osypchuk & Raik,
2023; Schimmelfennig, 2025; Schwarz, 2025; Zorić, 2025). Realism does not deny the
importance of values, but it treats them as subordinate to survival, security, and power
projection in an anarchic international environment. For much of its history, the EU has
cultivated an image of itself as a normative power. Yet, when confronted with systemic
shocks, its behaviour reveals realist logics and the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022
was decisive in accelerating this realist turn.
Enlargement then becomes more than a reward for democracy. From 2025 onward,
enlargement of the EU is a strategic calculation to secure borders, to anchor vulnerable
states to the EU’s institutional framework, and, most importantly, to deter rival powers.
Despite its longstanding NATO membership, Türkiye’s still valid candidacy and strategic
importance illustrate the limitations of a purely normative model. Ukraine’s rapid
progression to candidacy, by contrast, demonstrates how geopolitical urgency takes
precedence over concerns about institutional fragility or incomplete reforms.
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VOL. 16, Nº. 2, TD1
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December 2025, pp. 452-468
From Merit to Might: Rethinking EU Enlargement in Light of Türkiye and Ukraine
Sylvia Tiryaki
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Enlargement as a tool for strategic autonomy
The EU’s recent discourse on “strategic autonomy” is the foundation of this recalibration.
Initially reserved for issues of defence and energy self-sufficiency, strategic autonomy
now extends to enlargement as well. The Draghi Report (2024), one of the most recent
and extensive publications on the matter, has urged investments in defence industries,
resilience to economic coercion, and closer security partnerships with regional actors.
Enlargement is thus no longer treated as a distant teleological project, but as a pillar of
strategic resilience. This logic is already embedded in initiatives such as the European
Defence Industrial Strategy (European Commission, n.d.) and reiterated in political
declarations, including the Granada Declaration (European Council, 2023). The release
of the European Commission’s White Paper for European Defence on 19 March 2025 only
confirms that international security is currently a matter of the utmost importance on the
EU agenda. According to the Paper, the EU pledges to pass legislation that will strengthen
the EU’s defence industry and create a defence market that will ensure that the EU is
prepared for a worst-case security scenario by 2030. Moreover, the Paper includes
several provisions for supporting Ukraine, including improved military mobility and
infrastructure, and further integrating Ukraine into the EU’s defence mechanisms. To
achieve these aims by 2030, the ReARM Europe Plan has been introduced, and with it,
up to EUR 800 billion of planned defence-related expenditures (European Commission,
2025a).
The criteria for enlargement have already shifted. While the Copenhagen benchmarks
remain formally in place, greater weight is now attached to geopolitical alignment,
reliability, and contributions to European security. In Türkiye’s case, the real obstacle
does not seem to lie only in democratic backsliding, but in a perceived divergence from
EU strategic priorities. Ukraine, conversely, has been treated as indispensable to Europe’s
security architecture, despite the unfinished nature of its reform agenda. Thus, it can be
argued that enlargement has been reconfigured as a mechanism to extend the EU’s
strategic autonomy to its neighbourhood (Borell, 2022; Draghi, 2024).
Using enlargement as strategic leverage
The realist reinterpretation is visible in the proliferation of bilateral and multilateral
security agreements since the outbreak of war in Ukraine. Ukraine has concluded security
cooperation treaties with nearly all EU member states, as well as Canada (Agreement on
Security Cooperation between Canada and Ukraine, 2024), Norway (Norway and Ukraine
Sign Security Cooperation Agreement, 2024), and the UK (UK-Ukraine Agreement on
Security Cooperation, 2024). Türkiye, although sidelined institutionally, has also
deepened its security networks: it has signed trade and defence agreements with Italy
(Turkey and Italy Strengthen Ties with Trade and Defense Agreements, 2025), a strategic
partnership and three agreements with Slovakia (Türkiye and Slovakia Sign Declaration
on Establishing Strategic Partnership and Three Agreements, 2025), and trilateral naval
cooperation with Romania and Bulgaria to counter mine threats in the Black Sea (Türkiye,
Romania, and Bulgaria to Cooperate in Mine Hunting, 2024). Beyond Europe, Ankara has
expanded its security footprint through twenty-four agreements with Pakistan (Rakipoğlu
et al., 2025), thirteen bilateral agreements with Indonesia, including on co-production of
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From Merit to Might: Rethinking EU Enlargement in Light of Türkiye and Ukraine
Sylvia Tiryaki
457
Bayraktar TB3 and AKINCI drones (Alpay, 2025), and a defence cooperation agreement
with Syria (Türkiye, Syria Sign Military Cooperation, Training Deal, 2025).
These developments underscore a crucial point: enlargement is no longer solely about
internal transformation of candidates, but also about their capacity to participate in
Europe’s emerging security order. By integrating Ukraine, the EU strengthens deterrence
against Russia and anchors Kyiv within the Western liberal order. Thus, Türkiye’s
exclusion, as mentioned elsewhere, seems to reflect less its democratic shortcomings
than persistent questions over strategic alignment and identity.
Institutional reforms needed
Treating enlargement as a security instrument, however, carries risks. Fast-tracking
candidates for geopolitical reasons threatens to erode conditionality and undermine the
legitimacy of the acquis. Ukraine’s candidacy epitomises this dilemma: while its
integration is regarded as essential European security, its reconstruction needs, economic
fragility, and incomplete reforms raise difficult questions about absorption capacity
(Besch & Ciaramella, 2023). For Türkiye, the opposite dynamic applies: strategic
concerns, rather than normative shortcomings alone, explain the EU’s reluctance to move
forward.
A more layered model of conditionality is therefore emerging. Early stages emphasise
foreign policy coordination and security alignment, while full acquis compliance and
institutional reforms are deferred. This approach is evident in the Ukraine Facility and the
Growth Plan for the Western Balkans (European Commission, 2024a, p. 2), and may soon
be complemented by security compacts or defence pre-accession instruments that
integrate candidate countries into the Common Security and Defence Policy (CSDP).
Yet enlargement as a strategic instrument cannot succeed without internal reform. The
accession of Ukraine and other candidate countries would reshape voting dynamics,
budgetary allocations, and institutional balances within the EU. Calls for extending
qualified majority voting in foreign and security policy and for revising the EU’s structural
funds highlight the scale of these challenges (Csaky & Grant, 2025; Zorić, 2025).
Unless institutional reforms are enacted, strategic enlargement risks becoming either
symbolically empty or hollow or destabilising in practice. The central challenge, therefore,
is to reconcile the EU’s dual identity—as a community of values and a geopolitical actor—
so that future enlargements strengthen rather than dilute both its normative and
strategic cohesion.
Methodology
This article employs a comparative case study approach (George & Bennett, 2005; Yin,
2025) to analyse how geopolitical imperatives have reshaped the EU’s enlargement
policy. Türkiye and Ukraine are selected as the two focal cases. Both are large,
geopolitically significant states with longstanding, yet remarkably different relationships
with the EU. Türkiye has held official candidate status since 1999 and entered
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Thematic Dossier - Emerging Powers In-between Global and Regional Organizations
December 2025, pp. 452-468
From Merit to Might: Rethinking EU Enlargement in Light of Türkiye and Ukraine
Sylvia Tiryaki
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negotiations in 2005, while Ukraine obtained candidate status in 2022 and began
accession negotiations in 2024 (European Council, 2024).
The analysis draws on a broad base of primary and secondary sources. Core materials
include official EU documents, policy papers, accession reports, summit conclusions and
Eurobarometer surveys. These are complemented by national government publications,
statements by international organisations and international agreements. In addition,
scholarly literature, policy briefs, and reputable news sources are employed to provide
context, particularly concerning the most recent developments in both countries. This
methodology highlights how the recent geopolitical developments in the EU’s
neighbourhood have altered the significance it placed on conditionality, security, and
strategic alignment during the enlargement process. By focusing on the chosen two
countries, the aim of this paper is to analyse how factors such as institutional trajectories,
bilateral partnerships, and public attitudes influence the EU’s strategic recalibration
toward geopolitical realism.
Normative Reconsideration and Strategic Adaptability
25 years ago, Türkiye’s accession was among the key steps in the EU’s enlargement
strategy. It received candidate status in 1999 and formally opened negotiations in 2005.
Today, it symbolises the EU’s complex dilemma between upholding its foundational
values and accommodating strategic imperatives. Türkiye’s accession momentum
gradually slowed after the coup attempt in 2016, and by 2025, negotiations were
effectively frozen. What remains of what was supposed to be one of the most significant
additions to the EU is a strategic ambivalence, with neither the EU nor Ankara willing to
officially revoke Türkiye’s candidate status.
The early phase of Türkiye’s candidacy was viewed with optimism, and an effort was
made to adopt reforms to make Türkiye aligned with the Copenhagen criteria. However,
this trajectory reversed after 2013, and decisively so after the failed coup attempt of July
2016. The ensuing state of emergency allowed sweeping purges across the military,
judiciary, academia, and media. Restrictions on freedom of expression and political
pluralism drew international criticism, including Amnesty International’s documentation
of mass arrests and dismissals (Amnesty International, 2016).
The 2017 constitutional referendum further consolidated presidential powers, eroding
parliamentary checks and balances. The Venice Commission (2017) warned that these
amendments undermined the separation of powers and judicial independence.
Subsequent European Commission progress reports from 2018 to 2024 consistently
highlighted democratic backsliding, shrinking space for civil society, and weakened rule
of law. The European Parliament reiterated these concerns in its May 2025 resolutions
(European Parliament, 2025).
Despite periodic gestures of rapprochement —most recently the 2024 Gymnich meeting
where both sides signalled interest in renewed dialogue (Council of the European Union,
2024)—no road map for accession talks has materialised. Instead, EU policy has shifted
toward “functional engagement” with Türkiye as a valuable partner through selective
cooperation on issues such as customs union modernisation, climate policy alignment,
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and migration management, although without reference to full membership (European
Commission, 2024b, 2025b).
Türkiye has become a liminal partner—too important to exclude, yet too divergent to
integrate. Its stalled accession underscores both limits of conditionality when confronted
with assertive sovereignty and the constraints of a meritocratic enlargement model in
contexts shaped by identity politics and geopolitical ambivalence.
Ukraine’s candidacy, by contrast, casts conditionality in a different light. Since gaining
candidate status in 2022 and beginning negotiations in 2024, Ukraine has faced scrutiny
over corruption, oligarchic influence, and judicial reform (Krupa, 2025). Yet, as Georg
Vobruba (2025) observes, an urgency to solidify Ukraine’s place in the European order
required an alternative approach to the normative process. Taking a stance against
Russian aggression immediately has moved concerns over incomplete reforms lower on
the list of priorities.
However, this is not to say that the conditionality principle has been abandoned entirely.
Rather, it represents a reconsideration of priorities for the foreseeable future. As Keil
(2023) argues, a geopolitical approach to enlargement adds the geopolitical imperative
as a factor in assessing the candidate’s progress. It does not negate the original
normative, values-based framework. Ukraine’s trajectory represents this “sequenced
conditionality,” which places institutional reforms within a broader geopolitically-driven
integration process. This enlargement framework prioritises alignment with EU security
and foreign policy, as these have a global impact, while the more extensive national-level
democratic and judicial reforms are to be adopted progressively once the situation
becomes more stable.
Security Cooperation and Geopolitical Strategy
Türkiye’s balancing act between strategic significance and normative misalignment
places it at a critical juncture in EU enlargement politics. Despite divergences, Türkiye
remains indispensable to the EU, playing pivotal roles in migration management, regional
security in the Eastern Mediterranean, and energy transit. Its expanding defence
industry, especially the internationally lauded Bayraktar UAVs, further strengthens its
appeal (Çelik, 2021; Franke, 2025; Witt, 2022).
From the EU’s perspective, however, this strategic utility has not translated into renewed
accession momentum. Key member states, notably France and Austria, remain sceptical,
citing governance concerns but also cultural apprehensions regarding Türkiye’s
predominantly Muslim identity and demographic weight (Handy, 2023).
Concurrently, Türkiye has recalibrated its external posture by diversifying alliances
beyond the Euro-Atlantic framework. In 2024, it applied for BRICS membership (Turkey
seeks to join the BRICS bloc of emerging economies, a Kremlin official says, 2024) and
was granted “partner country” status (BRICS offers Turkey ‘partner country’ status,
Turkish trade minister says, 2024). Ankara has also deepened ties with non-Western
powers, including China through renewed currency swap arrangements (Central Bank of
the Republic of Türkiye, 2025), Russia (Avcıoğlu, 2025), Pakistan (Rakipoğlu et al.,
2025), and Indonesia (Alpay, 2025). It has also renewed relations with the Arab League
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Sylvia Tiryaki
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and generally focused its foreign policy on bilateral defence and trade agreements. While
not necessarily precluding continued cooperation with the EU, these moves do signal
Ankara’s intent to decrease Türkiye’s dependence on the EU. Notably, Türkiye’s interest
in BRICS and its increasing involvement in such platforms indicate a shift to transactional
diplomacy, prioritising autonomy and pragmatic cooperation over long-term normative
integration. This strategic reorientation has rendered Türkiye’s candidate status a
symbolic gesture, further complicating EU-Türkiye relations.
Because Ukraine’s accession has been motivated by an unprecedented security crisis, it
necessitates an unprecedented exception. While the Copenhagen criteria—democratic
governance, market economy, and acquis communautaire compliance—are traditionally
used to evaluate candidates, Ukraine’s extraordinary circumstances of Russia’s full-scale
invasion launched in February 2022 have prompted the EU to reframe enlargement as
an instrument of geopolitical resilience. Consequently, Ukraine has become a “test case”
for a security-centric approach to accession, which allows for certain flexibility of
normativity.
The strategic rationale behind Ukraine’s candidacy is increasingly rooted in its frontline
status in the defence of Europe’s post-Cold War security order. Following the invasion,
EU rhetoric shifted from procedural conditionality to solidarity, asserting Ukraine’s
membership as a de facto security guarantee in a context where NATO enlargement
remains stalled (Besch & Ciaramella, 2023).
This shift was institutionalised by the European Council’s decision to grant Ukraine
candidate status in June 2022 (Polityuk & Hnidyi, 2022) and to open accession
negotiations in 2024 (European Council, 2024). Although Ukraine remains a state at war,
its integration has been legitimised through appeals to resilience, sacrifice, and perceived
European identity. Furthermore, its contribution to European defence—especially in
cyber-security and unmanned systems—reinforces its standing within Europe’s strategic
architecture (Braun et al., 2024).
Economy or Strategy?
One of the most contentious aspects of Ukraine’s candidacy lies in its economic
implications. According to the World Bank, Ukraine’s reconstruction needs are estimated
at $524 billion (World Bank, 2025), with EU contributions since 2022 already exceeding
€186 billion (Administration Team of the EU Delegation to the United States, 2025).
These commitments have provoked debate over fiscal solidarity, budgetary priorities,
and public support across member states.
Yet the prevailing narrative increasingly frames Ukraine not as an economic liability but
as a strategic investment in European resilience. Ukraine’s vast agricultural base, critical
raw materials, and gas reserves offer pathways to reduce EU dependence on third-
country suppliers (Tombiński, 2023). Its alignment with EU energy, digital and transport
policies also promises to enhance the Union’s long-term competitiveness. This vision of
complementarity has sustained political will, even amid enlargement fatigue and growing
populist backlash.
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Türkiye, while sidelined in terms of formal accession, remains deeply embedded in the
EU’s economic and strategic orbit. Despite frozen negotiations, Ankara continues to seek
visa liberation
2
and the modernisation of the Customs Union, which has been in force
since 1995. In practice, EU-Türkiye relations have evolved into a selective partnership,
with cooperation in trade, migration, counterterrorism, public health, climate, energy,
transport, and regional security (European Commission, 2024a, 2024b). Trade ties
remain robust. In 2022, Türkiye ranked as the EU’s seventh-largest trading partner,
accounting for 3.3% (EUR 198.33 billion) of the EU’s total goods trade. This share
increased to 4.1% (EUR 206 billion) in 2023 (European Commission, 2023, p. 131,
2024b, pp. 4, 48). By late 2024, EU reports reiterated that Türkiye’s importance in the
Eastern Mediterranean and Middle Eastern stability, as well as its economic potential to
bolster EU competitiveness.
The International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) has further highlighted Türkiye’s
defence industry, noting its capacity to produce cost-effective unmanned systems,
precision-guided munitions, and electronic warfare tools as an asset to Europe’s security
posture, especially given the ongoing war in Ukraine (Kurç et al., 2024). Some tentative
warming in political dialogue was evident at the already mentioned Gymnich meeting in
2024, where both sides reaffirmed interest in re-engagement.
Credibility Questioned: Public Opinion, Identity, and Enlargement
Politics
Public opinion has long functioned as both a mirror and a constraint on the European
Union’s enlargement strategy. While officially presented as a technocratic process
centred on compliance with the Copenhagen criteria, enlargement has always been
politically contingent – shaped by domestic electorates in member states (Zorić, 2025).
As Kaźmierkiewicz (2006a, pp. 25–27) noted two decades ago, support or opposition to
candidate countries often aligns with public perceptions of their nationals, shaped by
cultural ties, linguistic proximity, diasporas, and economic reputation. Elite consensus
may drive formal decisions, but sustained popular support is essential for legitimacy and
viability. The widening gap between strategic imperatives and public sentiment has thus
emerged as a critical variable in the Union’s external engagement.
The Eurobarometer data have consistently highlighted significant variation in public
support for candidate countries. Early surveys from 2006 already showed a marked
preference for EFTA states, such as Norway, Switzerland, and Iceland, that were
perceived culturally and economically proximate, whereas Türkiye and Albania received
far lower approval (Standard Eurobarometer 64, 2006, p. 137). Two enduring
explanatory dimensions account for this divergence: cultural-religious affinity and
economic perception.
The first dimension, cultural-religious identity, has been theorised as “bounded
Europeanism,” wherein support for enlargement depends on perceived civilisational
2
On 18 July 205, the EU eased rules for Turks to use its open-border Schengen area. This
means that Turks now will be eligible for a six-month visa, as well as one-year, three-year and
five-year multiple-entry visas (EU Eases Schengen Visa Rules for Turks; Envoy Urges Further Moves, 2025).
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compatibility. This has been particularly salient in attitudes towards Türkiye. As a
predominantly Muslim country, Türkiye’s candidacy has often triggered anxieties about
Europe’s cultural coherence, especially in countries with entrenched Christian heritage
narratives (Kaźmierkiewicz, 2006a). The second was the economy. Wealthier states such
as Norway and Switzerland were viewed favourably, while poorer candidates received
less support. Interestingly, Ukraine, despite its weaker economy, ranked ahead of states
with Muslim populations, suggesting that cultural-religious identity weighed more heavily
than economic capacity in public perceptions (Kaźmierkiewicz, 2006a, p. 19). Other
economically poorer nations, such as Serbia, also attracted relatively less resistance
(Kaźmierkiewicz, 2006a, p. 19).
This pattern persists in more recent data, as the IPSOS survey for Euronews confirms
that Ukraine enjoys significantly more public support for accession (45%) than Türkiye
(24%), despite its current military and economic fragility (Cantone, 2024). Although the
GDP of Türkiye is USD 1.44 trillion and the GDP of Ukraine is USD 205.74 billion as of
April 2025 (GDP per Capita, Current Prices, 2025), Türkiye’s large economy has not
translated into higher support. Ukraine, despite its war-induced economic collapse,
benefits from a narrative of solidarity and security rather than economic self-sufficiency.
There also seems to be a new trend emerging. According to the 2025 European
Parliament Winter Survey, 66% of respondents identified the EU’s protective role amid
global insecurity, and 36% named defence and security as top policy areas (EP Winter
2025 Survey - Results Annex, 2025). These trends suggest that public opinion—once
primarily reactive to economic fears and cultural stereotypes—is being reshaped by a
heightened awareness of security interdependence and that enlargement is no longer
perceived merely as a technocratic process. It ranks now as the second most important
action to strengthen the EU’s global role, following only the euro, and ahead of defence.
Conclusion
This article has examined the evolving character of EU enlargement policy, tracing the
shift from a primarily normative process of democratic and economic transformation to
one where geopolitical strategy, security and resilience increasingly take priority. The
comparative analysis of Türkiye and Ukraine, two large, strategically significant, but
differently politically positioned candidate countries, has demonstrated that enlargement
no longer functions exclusively for its original purpose of promoting democracy. It has
also become an essential mechanism for protecting stability in the region and enhancing
the EU’s strategic autonomy.
Türkiye’s trajectory demonstrates the limitations of conditionality. Once envisioned as
the point where Europe meets the Muslim world, its accession process has stalled due to
serious democratic backsliding and normative divergence, resulting in mutual
ambivalence. Its gradual yet undeniable reorientation toward alternative geopolitical
frameworks such as BRICS and closer ties with Russia, China, and the Arab League signal
its pivot to a transactional, multipolar diplomacy. Yet the relationship with the EU remains
too important for both parties—economically, militarily, and geographically—to be
severed entirely.
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Sylvia Tiryaki
463
Conversely, Ukraine’s candidacy under exceptional circumstances places geopolitics and
security at the top of the EU’s enlargement agenda. It emphasises the necessity of
binding Ukraine to the EU in order to protect its eastern border and deter further acts of
aggression from Russia. Ukraine has thus become the first candidate where the new
security-driven model of enlargement is being applied. Whether Ukraine becomes an EU
member, however, will depend on multiple factors, including the resolution of the war
and subsequent post-war reconstruction, institutional reforms, and sustained public and
fiscal solidarity across the EU.
Public opinion in particular will be the decisive factor in Ukraine’s integration. As the
comparison over two decades shows, cultural and religious perceptions remain virtually
unchanged since the earliest surveys: Türkiye continues to face opposition driven by
identity and political arguments, while Ukraine’s accession is seen as an existential
necessity, supported by official expressions of solidarity. The persistence of these
asymmetries highlights that democratic societies of the EU will not sustain enlargement
policies that are culturally selective or normatively inconsistent.
The main argument that has been developed in this paper is that while enlargement used
to be the EU’s most powerful instrument of liberal teleology in the past, it is now being
repurposed as a cornerstone of its strategic autonomy. Yet this shift is not without risks
and requires careful balancing. If security imperatives take precedence over democratic
conditionality long-term, the EU risks disregarding the very principles and values that
underlie its legitimacy. To be sustainable, future enlargement must therefore balance
strategic resilience and foundational values. This requires a different approach to the
accession process. The early stages would focus on security, economic convergence, and
sectoral integration, while democratic governance and rule of law remain the end goal.
In conclusion, Türkiye and Ukraine exemplify two divergent but complementary
trajectories to EU membership. Türkiye represents the EU’s struggle to integrate a large,
Muslim-majority state whose democratic credentials and rule of law have deteriorated,
yet its strategic value remains too important to lose. Ukraine represents what seems to
be the future of enlargement, a new model characterised by a reconsideration of
priorities, resulting in an accelerated accession due to geopolitical urgency. Both cases
present a central normative lesson: candidates must be assessed based on the same
criteria, regardless of religion or identity. Türkiye should not be excluded simply because
it is Muslim, nor should Ukraine be integrated without a credible path to democratic
consolidation because it is at war. To do otherwise is to compromise the meritocratic
nature of the accession process.
The future of enlargement thus lies in a hybrid paradigm, based on foundational values
yet guided by interests. If the process remains strategically sensible and normatively
just, the EU will be able to maintain its transformational capacity and position itself as a
key player in the multipolar international order. When viewed through this new lens, the
enlargement process is about more than just membership; it is also about defining
Europe’s strategic future
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Sylvia Tiryaki
464
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