Iran, and Türkiye. This initiative came to be known in the international community as the
“Astana Process.” At this point, the Geneva Process was not entirely sidelined but
continued in parallel with the Astana Process. The UN attempted to end the conflict
through a power-sharing negotiation model between the warring parties, but this effort
failed, as both sides entered the process with the goal of achieving a decisive victory
(Abboud, 2021: 326-332; Vogel, 2023: 85). Since the beginning of the uprisings in Syria,
Türkiye had adopted a foreign policy aimed at the overthrow of the Assad regime. On the
other hand, actors like Iran and Russia provided both military and political support to
ensure the unwavering continuation of the Syrian regime. Russia supported the
progression of the process without regime change or international intervention, favouring
negotiated settlements (Nabiev and Nafikov, 2021: 208).
While Türkiye opposed the Assad regime, the activities of PKK/PYD-affiliated groups along
the Syrian border posed a serious threat to Türkiye’s national security. In response to
attacks by the PKK/PYD, Türkiye carried out military operations in northern Syria. During
this period, Türkiye also continued its diplomatic efforts as a politically influential actor
within the Astana Process (Philips, 2022: 375). Throughout the Astana Process, the
guarantor states established four different “de-escalation zones” in Syria. The first zone
included the city of Idlib, the northeastern part of Latakia, the western areas of Aleppo,
and the northern settlements in Hama. The second zone consisted of the Rastan and
Talbiseh areas north of the city of Homs. The third zone referred to Eastern Ghouta,
located north of Damascus. Finally, the fourth zone covered the southern areas along the
Jordanian border, including the cities of Daraa and Quneitra. Initially, there was a
noticeable decrease in violence in these designated zones (Talukdar and Anas, 2018).
However, in 2018 and 2019, the Syrian regime resumed hostilities in these regions,
undermining the de-escalation efforts. As a result of the regime’s actions, millions of
Syrian refugees fled toward the Turkish border. In the face of these developments, both
the Moscow and Tehran administrations continued to provide all forms of support to the
Assad regime (Mohamad, 2023). Within this context, Türkiye played a significant role in
ensuring border security and managing the humanitarian burden. Violations committed
by the regime in the de-escalation zones further complicated Türkiye’s military and
diplomatic policy toward the region. Moreover, through its role as a guarantor in the
Astana Process, Türkiye continued its efforts not only as a military actor but also as a
diplomatic player in the search for a resolution.
Türkiye opposed the de facto situation that the PKK/PYD was attempting to establish in
Syria. In this context, the negotiations in Astana intensified (Michiels and Kizilkaya, 2022:
17). Moreover, Russia refused to recognise the PKK/PYD as a terrorist organisation, and
the relations between Russia and the PKK/PYD continued within this framework.
However, this relationship appeared to come to an end when Türkiye captured Afrin in
January 2018. Additionally, although forces affiliated with the Syrian regime attempted
to enter Afrin in February 2018, they were repelled by Turkish artillery following an
agreement reached with Iranian and Russian officials (Hale, 2019: 31-32). Iran had
successfully established a presence in the Syrian army and other security structures
through its militias. After achieving military success, Iran shifted its focus to economic
and socio-cultural issues (Vogel, 2023: 81). In the Astana talks, since Russian, Turkish,
and Iranian forces were present on the ground in Syria, they had the capacity to limit