OBSERVARE

Universidade Autónoma de Lisboa

e-ISSN: 1647-7251

VOL. 16, Nº. 2

November 2025-April 2026

ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE AND INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS: NAVIGATING

OPPORTUNITIES AND CHALLENGES IN GLOBAL GOVERNANCE

SÉRGIO SILVA

D012196@umaia.pt

University Professor in the scientific areas related to Mathematics, Statistics and Computer

Science at University of Maia – UMAIA (Portugal). He holds a PhD in Intelligent and Adaptable

Software Systems from the University of Vigo and a Master's and Bachelor's degree in

Mathematics from the University of Minho. He has several publications that include book

chapters, articles and conferences. His research focus is the application of Artificial Intelligence

and Information and Communication Technologies in various areas of society, namely Education,

Law, Industry, Health and Web Marketing. In addition, he has extensive professional experience

in academic and business projects involving the transfer of scientific and technological

knowledge.

Abstract

Artificial Intelligence (AI) is transforming the field of International Relations (IR) by reshaping

diplomacy, security, and global governance. This article employs a descriptive-analytical

methodology, systematically reviewing and synthesizing existing literature to analyse AI’s

applications and implications in IR. It explores AI's potential to enhance diplomatic decision-

making through predictive analytics and automated negotiation systems, as well as its

applications in cybersecurity and military technologies. The article also highlights the ethical

and regulatory challenges posed by AI, such as algorithmic bias, weaponization, and

disparities in global access to AI technologies. While AI offers innovative solutions for global

challenges, such as climate change and public health, its integration into the global system

demands robust international frameworks and ethical safeguards. Recommendations include

promoting equitable AI access, fostering international cooperation, and leveraging AI for

peacebuilding and sustainable development. This article contributes to the growing discourse

on the intersection of AI and IR, emphasizing the need for responsible and inclusive global

governance.

Keywords

Artificial Intelligence, International Relations, Diplomacy, Cybersecurity, Governance.

Resumo

A Inteligência Artificial (IA) está a transformar o campo das Relações Internacionais (RI),

remodelando a diplomacia, a segurança e a governança global. Este artigo emprega uma

metodologia descritiva-analítica, revendo e sintetizando sistematicamente a literatura

existente para analisar as aplicações e implicações da IA nas RI. Explora o potencial da IA

para melhorar a tomada de decisões diplomáticas através de análises preditivas e sistemas

de negociação automatizados, bem como as suas aplicações em cibersegurança e tecnologias

militares. O artigo também destaca os desafios éticos e regulatórios impostos pela IA, como

viés algorítmico, militarização e disparidades no acesso global às tecnologias de IA. Embora

a IA ofereça soluções inovadoras para desafios globais, como alterações climáticas e saúde

pública, a sua integração no sistema global exige estruturas internacionais robustas e

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Artificial Intelligence and International Relations:

Navigating Opportunities and Challenges in Global Governance

Sérgio Silva

salvaguardas éticas. As recomendações incluem a promoção do acesso equitativo à IA, o

fomento da cooperação internacional e o aproveitamento da IA para a construção da paz e o

desenvolvimento sustentável. Este artigo contribui para o crescente discurso sobre a

interseção entre IA e RI, enfatizando a necessidade de uma governança global responsável e

inclusiva.

Palavras-chave

Inteligência Artificial, Relações Internacionais, Diplomacia, Cibersegurança, Governança.

How to cite this article

Silva, Sérgio (2025). Artificial Intelligence and International Relations: Navigating Opportunities

and Challenges in Global Governance. Janus.net, e-journal of international relations. VOL. 16, Nº.

2, November 2025-April 2026, pp. 22-39. DOI https://doi.org/10.26619/1647-7251.16.2.2

Article submitted on 21st January 2025 and accepted for publication on 8th September

2025.

JANUS.NET, e-journal of International Relations

e-ISSN: 1647-7251

VOL. 16, Nº. 2

November 2025-April 2026, pp. 22-39

Artificial Intelligence and International Relations:

Navigating Opportunities and Challenges in Global Governance

Sérgio Silva

ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE AND INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS:

NAVIGATING OPPORTUNITIES AND CHALLENGES IN

GLOBAL GOVERNANCE

SÉRGIO SILVA

Introduction

The rapid advancement of Artificial Intelligence (AI) has brought about transformative

changes across various sectors, including healthcare, education, finance, and

governance. In the realm of International Relations (IR), AI is emerging as a notable

change, influencing how states interact, negotiate, and respond to global challenges. By

automating complex processes, analysing vast amounts of data, and providing actionable

insights, AI has the potential to enhance decision-making, improve diplomatic outcomes,

and address pressing global issues such as climate change and pandemics.

However, these advancements come with significant challenges. The integration of AI

into IR raises ethical dilemmas, such as algorithmic bias and the potential misuse of AI

in autonomous weapons and surveillance. Moreover, disparities in AI adoption and

technological capability among nations risk widening the global development gap, leading

to unequal power dynamics in the international system. As such, the use of AI in IR is

not merely a technological shift but a complex socio-political evolution that requires

careful governance and collaboration.

This article employs a descriptive-analytical methodology, systematically reviewing

existing literature and case studies. The ideas of other authors have been organized

thematically into domains such as diplomacy, security, digital public diplomacy,

cybersecurity, and global governance. This approach allows for a clear synthesis of

theoretical perspectives, empirical findings, and policy implications, while highlighting

emerging trends and challenges (Fatai et al., 2023, p. 2030; Galliano et al., 2024, pp.

36-37).

AI in Diplomacy and Decision-Making

AI has begun to revolutionize diplomacy by introducing tools that streamline decision-

making and enhance diplomatic outcomes. By processing vast datasets and providing

actionable insights, AI is enabling diplomats and policymakers to respond more

effectively to global challenges.

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Artificial Intelligence and International Relations:

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Predictive Analytics in Diplomacy

Predictive analytics is one of the most transformative applications of AI in diplomacy,

enabling states to anticipate global challenges and take pre-emptive actions. By

analysing large datasets, predictive models driven by AI identify trends and provide

actionable insights, helping policymakers make informed decisions in complex

international scenarios (Fatai et al., 2023, pp. 2032-2035).

Anticipating Crises and Conflicts

AI-powered predictive tools are particularly valuable in crisis anticipation and conflict

prevention. By integrating historical data, social media trends, economic indicators, and

real-time intelligence, these systems can identify early warning signs of potential crises.

For example, the European Union’s Early Warning System employs machine learning

algorithms to monitor risk factors such as political instability, migration patterns, and

economic shocks. This system enables timely interventions that mitigate the risk of

escalation and reduce the humanitarian and political costs of crises (Galliano et al., 2024,

pp. 40-42).

Enhancing Policy Formulation

Predictive analytics supports policymaking based on evidence by simulating the outcomes

of various strategies. Through scenario modelling, AI allows diplomats to explore

potential consequences of decisions in areas such as trade negotiations, conflict

resolution, and climate agreements. For instance, AI models can simulate the impact of

economic sanctions on a target nation’s stability, enabling policymakers to choose

strategies with the desired outcomes while minimizing unintended consequences (Bali &

Rapelanoro, 2021, p. 28).

Case Studies in Predictive Analytics

The United Nations Global Pulse initiative exemplifies the use of AI in humanitarian

diplomacy. By leveraging big data and predictive analytics, the program forecasts crises

such as food shortages, disease outbreaks, and refugee movements, facilitating

international aid coordination. Similarly, systems driven by AI have been used to identify

patterns of disinformation campaigns that threaten democratic processes, allowing states

to respond proactively (Manor, 2019, pp. 83-101).

Challenges and Ethical Considerations

Despite its advantages, predictive analytics in diplomacy faces significant challenges. The

quality of predictions depends heavily on the availability and accuracy of data. Incomplete

or biased datasets can lead to flawed forecasts, undermining decision-making processes.

Moreover, the use of predictive tools raises ethical concerns, such as privacy violations

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e-ISSN: 1647-7251

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November 2025-April 2026, pp. 22-39

Artificial Intelligence and International Relations:

Navigating Opportunities and Challenges in Global Governance

Sérgio Silva

and the potential misuse of predictive insights for coercive or manipulative purposes

(Helbing, 2015, p. 12).

Another crucial challenge concerns the quality and representativeness of the data on

which AI systems rely. In diplomacy and conflict prediction, biased or incomplete datasets

can distort forecasts, leading to misguided or unjust outcomes. For instance, when

predictive models rely predominantly on data from developed countries, they risk

neglecting the political and cultural specificities of the Global South, thereby reinforcing

existing inequalities in global governance (Montgomery, 2024, pp. 5–6). Helbing (2015,

p. 12) similarly warns that the unchecked use of incomplete data may amplify algorithmic

bias and erode trust in policy processes driven by AI. Ensuring transparency in data

provenance and promoting human oversight are thus critical to maintaining legitimacy

and accountability in decision-making assisted by AI.

Automated Negotiation Systems

Automated negotiation systems powered by AI are revolutionizing the way international

agreements and conflict resolutions are approached. These systems utilize sophisticated

algorithms to analyse data, evaluate stakeholders' preferences, and recommend optimal

solutions. By enhancing efficiency and reducing bias, platforms driven by AI are proving

to be valuable tools in diplomatic and multilateral negotiation processes (Katsh &

Rabinovich-Einy, 2017, pp. 50-52).

Enhancing Multilateral Negotiations

In multilateral negotiations, where diverse interests and complex trade-offs often

challenge consensus, AI systems provide a structured and efficient approach. Automated

negotiation platforms analyse data from all parties, model preferences, and simulate

possible outcomes to identify win-win scenarios. These tools have been particularly

effective in trade negotiations, climate agreements, and disputes sharing resource,

offering solutions that balance conflicting priorities (Bjola & Manor, 2024, pp. 1-6).

Data-Driven Decision Support

AI systems enhance human negotiators' capabilities by identifying patterns and

generating recommendations based on evidence. For instance, an AI system might

evaluate economic data, political alliances, and cultural dynamics to suggest negotiation

strategies tailored to specific contexts. These platforms reduce the time required for data

analysis, allowing diplomats to focus on high-level decision-making (Manor, 2019, pp.

83-101).

Case Studies in Automated Negotiation

One example of automated negotiation systems in action is the development of AI tools

for trade dispute resolution in the World Trade Organization (WTO). AI algorithms

evaluate historical data on trade conflicts, analyse the legal frameworks involved, and

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Artificial Intelligence and International Relations:

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Sérgio Silva

propose resolutions that align with international laws and stakeholders' interests.

Similarly, in environmental diplomacy, tools driven by AI tools have been used to

facilitate agreements on carbon emissions by modelling the economic impact of various

policy options for participating nations (Manor, 2019, pp. 83-101).

Mitigating Bias and Enhancing Transparency

By relying on data and algorithmic processes, automated negotiation systems aim to

minimize the influence of human bias. These systems can enhance transparency in

negotiations by providing a clear rationale for suggested outcomes, helping to build trust

among parties. Additionally, they ensure that less influential states or parties have access

to objective data-driven support, levelling the playing field in global diplomacy (Uslu,

2024, pp. 160-162).

Digital Public Diplomacy

Digital public diplomacy, driven by AI, has become a vital tool for states seeking to shape

international narratives, engage with foreign publics, and influence global perceptions.

By leveraging analytics and communication platforms driven by AI, governments can

monitor sentiment, craft targeted messages, and respond dynamically to global issues in

real time (Manor, 2019, pp. 83-101).

Sentiment Analysis and Public Opinion Monitoring

Tools powered by AI enable governments to analyse vast volumes of data from social

media, news platforms, and online forums. Sentiment analysis algorithms assess public

opinion, identifying trends, grievances, and areas of interest across diverse populations.

For instance, during major international events or crises, governments can use AI to

gauge global reactions and adapt their diplomatic messaging accordingly (Manor, 2019,

pp. 55-56). These insights allow diplomats to align their strategies with public sentiment,

fostering more effective engagement with international audiences.

Real-Time Engagement

AI enhances real-time engagement through chatbots and automated communication

systems. These tools can respond promptly to public inquiries about policies, providing

accurate and consistent information. For example, virtual assistants deployed by foreign

ministries driven by AI can interact with citizens and foreigners alike, clarifying visa

regulations, travel advisories, or foreign policy initiatives. This accessibility builds trust

and transparency, enhancing a state's image on the global stage (Kosack & Fung, 2014,

pp. 67-69).

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Artificial Intelligence and International Relations:

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Sérgio Silva

Targeted Messaging and Influence Campaigns

Digital public diplomacy relies on AI's ability to segment audiences and tailor messages

to specific demographics. By analysing behavioural patterns, AI tools help governments

create personalized campaigns that resonate with target audiences. For example, in

promoting climate policies or human rights initiatives, AI algorithms can identify

influential social media users and craft messages that align with their interests and

values. This precision amplifies the impact of diplomatic efforts, ensuring messages reach

the right audiences at the right time (Bjola & Manor, 2024, pp. 1-6).

Case Studies in Digital Public Diplomacy

The use of AI in public diplomacy is exemplified by the United Kingdom’s Foreign,

Commonwealth & Development Office, which employs AI tools to track online discourse

and measure the effectiveness of its campaigns. Similarly, the U.S. Department of State

has utilized AI to counter disinformation campaigns by identifying false narratives and

promoting verified information through digital channels (Bontridder & Poullet, 2021, pp.

1-21).

AI in Security and Conflict

AI is increasingly playing a pivotal role in enhancing national and global security, as well

as in addressing complex conflict scenarios. AI's capabilities in data analysis, predictive

modelling, and automation are being harnessed to improve both defensive and offensive

strategies in security and conflict management. However, its use also raises significant

ethical concerns and risks, particularly regarding autonomy, accountability, and the

potential for misuse in warfare (Chauhan, 2022, pp. 17-24).

AI in Military Strategy and Defense

AI is transforming military strategies by enabling faster, more accurate decision-making

and enhancing operational effectiveness. Advanced AI systems are now being integrated

into defense systems, from autonomous drones to cyber defense operations.

Autonomous vehicles and drones equipped with AI can perform surveillance,

reconnaissance, and even targeted strikes without direct human intervention, offering

enhanced efficiency and reduced human risk in conflict zones (Négyesi, 2024, pp. 475-

476).

For example, the United States and China have heavily invested in defense technologies

driven by AI, including autonomous weapons systems and surveillance tools powered by

AI. These systems can process large datasets to detect potential threats, such as troop

movements or weapon deployments, faster than human analysts, providing significant

strategic advantages (Chauhan, 2022, pp. 17-24).

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Artificial Intelligence and International Relations:

Navigating Opportunities and Challenges in Global Governance

Sérgio Silva

AI in Conflict Prediction and Early Warning Systems

AI is also being deployed to predict and prevent conflicts before they escalate. Machine

learning algorithms can analyse historical data, geopolitical patterns, and social media

activity to detect early signs of unrest or potential violence. This predictive capability

allows international organizations, such as the United Nations (UN), to intervene before

a conflict fully materializes, mitigating the loss of life and economic disruption

(Henningsen, 2023, pp. 141-164).

For example, AI systems are used in early warning systems that monitor for social unrest,

such as protests, civil wars, or political instability. These systems analyse data from

various sources, including news reports, social media, and economic indicators, to predict

where conflicts might arise. The United Nations' use of AI to monitor refugee flows or

predict conflict hotspots in Africa is one example of this approach in action. These

predictive tools enable timely interventions and the provision of humanitarian assistance

before the situation deteriorates (Henningsen, 2023, pp. 141-164).

AI in Cybersecurity and Cyber Warfare

AI is increasingly central to the field of cybersecurity, where it is used to detect and

respond to cyber threats in real-time. With the growing threat of cyberattacks on critical

infrastructure, AI systems are used to identify potential vulnerabilities in computer

networks, prevent hacking attempts, and protect sensitive information. These systems

can autonomously monitor network traffic, detect unusual behaviour, and deploy

defensive measures more quickly than human analysts.

In the context of cyber warfare, AI is also used to launch sophisticated cyberattacks.

Malware driven by AI can adapt and evolve to bypass security measures, making it

difficult for traditional defense to counter such threats. The use of AI in offensive cyber

capabilities, such as launching automated cyberattacks on enemy infrastructure, raises

concerns about the escalation of conflicts in the digital realm.

For instance, the use of AI in the 2020 cyberattacks on major governmental agencies,

such as the SolarWinds attack, demonstrates the increasing sophistication of cyber

warfare tactics powered by AI. The attack, attributed to hackers backed by Russian,

involved the use of AI to infiltrate supply chains and government networks, highlighting

the vulnerabilities that AI can both protect and exploit (Jasper, 2022, pp. 5-6).

AI and Global Governance

AI is increasingly influencing the landscape of global governance, offering new tools for

managing complex transnational issues such as climate change, global health, migration,

and international trade. However, while AI has the potential to enhance global

cooperation, it also introduces significant challenges regarding regulation, ethics, and the

distribution of power on the global stage. Governments, international organizations, and

non-state actors are working together to shape the future of AI governance to ensure

that its benefits are equitably distributed, while minimizing risks and ensuring human

rights protections.

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Artificial Intelligence and International Relations:

Navigating Opportunities and Challenges in Global Governance

Sérgio Silva

AI in Global Policy Coordination

AI has the capacity to transform international policy coordination by facilitating the

collection, analysis, and sharing of data across borders. Tools powered by AI can process

vast amounts of data in real-time, helping governments and international organizations

respond more quickly to global challenges such as pandemics, natural disasters, and

environmental threats.

For example, climate models driven by AI are being used to predict the impact of climate

change across different regions, guiding international efforts to mitigate its effects. These

models allow the international community to better understand and anticipate the long-

term consequences of environmental changes, leading to more informed negotiations in

climate summits like the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change

(UNFCCC) (Pereira & Viola, 2020, pp. 15-16). Similarly, AI tools have been used in health

governance to track and predict the spread of infectious diseases, facilitating coordinated

global responses to pandemics such as COVID-19 (Kaur et al., 2021, pp. 40523-40525).

By analysing data from various countries, AI systems can offer recommendations for

targeted interventions and resource allocation, improving the effectiveness of global

health governance.

AI and Multilateral Institutions

International organizations like the United Nations (UN), World Trade Organization

(WTO), and World Health Organization (WHO) are exploring the use of AI to improve

their operations, increase transparency, and enhance decision-making. AI can be used

to streamline administrative processes, support decision-making driven by AI, and

facilitate the monitoring of international agreements. The UN, for example, has invested

in AI projects to strengthen peacekeeping and humanitarian response. AI is employed to

monitor conflict zones, predict refugee flows, and assess the impact of sanctions or peace

agreements. AI tools have also been used by the UN to combat misinformation and

disinformation, analysing social media platforms to detect the spread of harmful

narratives that could undermine peace efforts or create instability (Kertysova, 2018, pp.

60-62).

Similarly, AI can enhance global trade governance by helping institutions like the WTO

predict market trends and evaluate trade disputes. By automating routine processes and

offering advanced analysis, AI helps multilateral organizations become more efficient and

adaptive in responding to fast-changing global challenges (Bjola & Manor, 2024, pp. 1-

6).

AI in International Law and Regulation

The rise of AI poses new questions for international law, particularly in the areas of

regulation, accountability, and jurisdiction. One of the key challenges for global

governance is the establishment of international norms and rules for the development

and deployment of AI technologies. Unlike traditional international treaties, AI

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Artificial Intelligence and International Relations:

Navigating Opportunities and Challenges in Global Governance

Sérgio Silva

governance requires flexible frameworks that can keep pace with rapid technological

advancements.

In this context, international collaboration is critical to creating consistent, enforceable

standards for AI deployment. The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and

Development (OECD) and the European Union (EU) have already taken steps toward

establishing guidelines and regulations for AI, focusing on areas such as data privacy,

algorithmic transparency, and ethical AI use. For example, the EU’s Artificial Intelligence

Act, proposed in 2021, aims to regulate AI systems with elevated risk by ensuring that

they are transparent, accountable, and respectful of fundamental rights (Neuwirth, 2022,

pp. 20-25).

While initiatives such as the EU Artificial Intelligence Act represent important progress

toward regulating systems with elevated risk, they also expose the limits of current

governance approaches. Neuwirth (2022, pp. 20–25) argues that although the Act

prioritizes transparency and accountability, enforcement mechanisms remain fragmented

and uneven across jurisdictions. Khalaileh (2023, pp. 25–27) stresses that the fast-paced

nature of AI innovation challenges the ability of international law to adapt effectively. If

regulatory frameworks remain fragmented, the result may be competing and

incompatible approaches to AI governance, undermining efforts to build coherent

international standards.

AI, Sovereignty, and Global Power Dynamics

AI also brings questions of sovereignty and power dynamics to the forefront of global

governance discussions. So, countries race to develop cutting-edge AI technologies, the

ability to control and regulate AI becomes a key source of geopolitical influence. Nations

with advanced AI capabilities may gain economic, military, and diplomatic leverage,

which could alter existing power dynamics in global governance.

For instance, the competition between the United States and China in AI development is

not just a matter of technological innovation but also reflects broader geopolitical

tensions. The control over AI technologies can affect a country’s influence in international

organizations, its ability to shape global norms, and its strategic interests in areas like

cybersecurity and trade. As AI becomes a critical component of economic and military

power, questions arise about how AI will impact state sovereignty, international law, and

global cooperation (Grochmalski, 2020, pp. 7-9).

The introduction of AI in global governance requires balancing the interests of powerful

states with the need for cooperation, inclusivity, and fairness. There must be mechanisms

in place to ensure that AI is used to foster collaboration and collective action, rather than

to reinforce inequality or exacerbate global tensions.

The Future of AI in Global Governance

Looking ahead, the integration of AI into global governance will likely continue to expand,

creating both opportunities and challenges for the international community. AI has the

potential to enhance cooperation on pressing global issues, including climate change,

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health crises, and conflict prevention. However, its use also requires careful regulation

and ethical oversight to prevent abuses and ensure equitable benefits for all.

International governance frameworks must evolve to address the unique challenges

posed by AI. This will involve global dialogue, collaboration between governments,

international organizations, the private sector, and civil society, as well as the

development of robust legal and ethical standards. AI should not only be seen as a tool

for enhancing governance but as an integral part of shaping the future of global

cooperation in the 21st century (Imamguluyev, 2024, pp. 2938-2940).

Risks and Ethical Implications

While AI offers numerous benefits in various domains of global governance, security, and

diplomacy, its application also carries significant risks and ethical dilemmas. The advent

of AI technologies brings forth challenges related to weaponization, misinformation,

inequality, and the erosion of privacy. These risks require careful regulation, ethical

oversight, and international cooperation to ensure that AI is used responsibly and in ways

that benefit all of humanity, rather than exacerbating existing global divides or

threatening global peace and stability (Howard, Woolley, & Calo, 2018, pp. 85-87;

Sedova et al., 2021, pp. 7-9).

Weaponization and Misinformation

AI’s ability to rapidly process and generate content is a double-edged sword, particularly

when it comes to weaponizing information and manipulating public perception.

Technologies driven by AI, including bots, deepfakes, and automated content generation,

can be used to spread misinformation and disinformation at an unprecedented scale. This

poses severe risks to democracy, international relations, and social cohesion.

Bots generated by AI bots have been deployed to interfere in political processes,

influencing elections, spreading propaganda, and deepening societal divides. For

instance, AI bots were used in the 2016 U.S. election to amplify divisive narratives and

influence public opinion (Howard, Woolley, & Calo, 2018, pp. 88-90). These campaigns

are often designed to create polarization, sow distrust in democratic institutions, and

undermine the integrity of electoral systems.

The manipulation of information through AI also extends to the creation of deepfake

videos, which can be used to spread false narratives, discredit political figures, or incite

violence. The ability to produce convincing, yet entirely fabricated, content with minimal

resources presents a major challenge to verifying the truth and preventing the spread of

harmful misinformation on a global scale.

In the context of international relations, misinformation campaigns driven by AI can be

used to destabilize governments, interfere with diplomatic efforts, and even incite

conflicts between states (Sedova et al., 2021, pp. 10-12). The weaponization of AI in the

form of digital manipulation could become an increasingly common tactic in cyber

warfare, posing a significant challenge to global security.

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Artificial Intelligence and International Relations:

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Sérgio Silva

To address these threats, countries and international organizations must collaborate on

developing frameworks to regulate the use of AI in information warfare, establish clear

accountability for those who exploit AI for malicious purposes, and invest in technologies

to detect and counteract misinformation generated by AI.

Beyond the general threats of bots and deepfakes, AI introduces more insidious risks of

manipulation through personalized disinformation campaigns. Unlike traditional

propaganda, systems driven by AI can tailor narratives to specific demographics,

exploiting cultural and emotional triggers to maximize impact. For example, Manor

(2019, pp. 83–101) notes that sentiment analysis powered by AI enables actors to

identify societal grievances and then deploy targeted messages to exacerbate

polarization. Bontridder and Poullet (2021, pp. 1–21) similarly highlight how automated

influence operations undermine democratic institutions and destabilize international

relations. These dynamics illustrate how disinformation campaigns powered by AI pose

a direct challenge not only to national security but also to international cooperation and

trust.

Inequalities in AI Access

While AI offers immense potential for addressing global challenges, there is a growing

concern over the disparities in access to AI technologies between developed and

developing countries. The digital divide is widening as wealthy nations and multinational

corporations dominate the development and deployment of AI, leaving low-income

countries with limited access to these transformative technologies. This inequality is

creating further imbalances in global power and exacerbating existing development

challenges.

In many developing nations, there are significant barriers to the adoption of AI, including

limited infrastructure, lack of access to quality data, insufficient technical expertise, and

inadequate financial resources. This creates a situation where only a few nations,

particularly those in the Global North, can harness the full potential of AI, while the rest

are left behind.

The unequal distribution of AI technologies risks perpetuating the existing global power

dynamics, where technologically advanced nations can leverage AI for economic growth,

military superiority, and political influence. In contrast, developing countries may be left

with limited access to AI's benefits, further deepening inequalities in areas such as

healthcare, education, and economic development (Montgomery, 2024, pp. 5-6).

For example, solutions in healthcare powered by AI, such as diagnostic tools and

personalized medicine, could improve patient outcomes and reduce health disparities in

developed countries. However, without proper infrastructure and access to these

technologies, many people in low-income regions will be unable to benefit from these

advancements. Similarly, AI’s potential to drive economic growth through automation

and data analysis may leave developing countries vulnerable to job displacement and

economic stagnation if they are unable to keep up with technological innovation.

Addressing these disparities requires international cooperation, capacity-building

initiatives, and the establishment of policies that promote the equitable distribution of AI

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Artificial Intelligence and International Relations:

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Sérgio Silva

technologies. The United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization

(UNESCO) has emphasized the need for global cooperation to build the necessary

infrastructure, support education and skill development, and ensure that AI technologies

are accessible to all countries, regardless of their economic status (UNESCO, 2024).

One potential solution is the creation of an international framework that ensures fair

access to AI, fosters research collaboration between countries, and provides support for

developing countries to build the necessary infrastructure to take advantage of AI

technologies. This could include measures such as technology transfer, programs for

building capacity, and equitable funding for AI research and development in the Global

South.

Policy Recommendations

As AI continues to reshape global governance, international relations, and security, it is

crucial to develop policies that maximize the benefits of AI while mitigating its risks. AI’s

potential to enhance global cooperation and address pressing challenges, such as climate

change, public health, and conflict resolution, is immense. However, its impact can be

equally harmful if not properly regulated. In this section, several policy recommendations

are outlined to guide the development and deployment of AI in a way that ensures it

serves humanity’s best interests and fosters equitable and ethical global practices.

Establishing International Frameworks

Creating a unified framework for AI governance is essential to ensure the responsible

development and use of AI technologies. While AI innovation is rapidly advancing, the

legal and regulatory structures that govern its use remain fragmented, with different

countries establishing their own standards, often without coordinated international

oversight. This has created a scenario in which AI can be developed and deployed without

consistent ethical, legal, or social considerations across borders.

The UN or other international bodies should take the lead in creating global frameworks

for AI governance. These frameworks should include binding agreements on AI safety,

ethical standards, data privacy, transparency, and accountability, ensuring that AI

systems are used responsibly and equitably (UNESCO, 2024). A global treaty on AI could

set guidelines for ensuring that AI development prioritizes human rights, social justice,

and environmental sustainability.

The proposed framework should also focus on promoting inclusivity, ensuring that

developing countries have a voice in the governance process and are not left behind in

the AI revolution. International cooperation on AI could foster trust and create a

collaborative environment to address transnational challenges such as cybersecurity,

misinformation, and the ethical implications of AI in warfare (UNESCO, 2024).

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Artificial Intelligence and International Relations:

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Sérgio Silva

Enhancing Transparency and Accountability

One of the key challenges with AI systems, particularly those in critical domains such as

defense, healthcare, and diplomacy, is the opacity of decision-making processes. Many

AI models are complex and operate as "black-box" systems, where even their developers

may struggle to explain how the algorithms arrive at decisions. This lack of transparency

is particularly concerning when AI systems are used in high-stakes areas, such as military

operations, law enforcement, and foreign policy decision-making.

To address these concerns, governments should mandate the use of explainable AI (XAI)

systems in these domains. XAI refers to AI systems designed to be transparent and

interpretable, so their actions can be understood and explained to non-expert users

(Khalaileh, 2023, pp. 25-27). By adopting XAI, governments can ensure that AI systems

operate in ways that are understandable, justifiable, and accountable. This will help

mitigate the risks of unintended consequences, bias, and algorithmic errors, while

fostering trust among the public and international stakeholders.

For example, in the defense sector, XAI can help ensure that military AI systems, such

as autonomous weapons or intelligence gathering systems, operate within ethical and

legal frameworks. Similarly, in diplomacy, XAI could help explain the reasoning behind

foreign policy decisions made with the assistance of AI, ensuring that they are

transparent and aligned with international law and norms (Khalaileh, 2023, pp. 28-30).

Promoting Capacity Building in Developing Nations

The global digital divide poses a significant challenge to the equitable adoption of AI

technologies. While developed countries have access to advanced AI tools and

infrastructure, many developing nations lack the resources, technical expertise, and

infrastructure to integrate AI into their governance and economic systems. This inequality

risks further marginalizing these nations, limiting their ability to benefit from AI’s

potential in areas like healthcare, education, and economic development.

To address this gap, developed countries should prioritize technical and financial

assistance to help developing nations integrate AI technologies. Initiatives like the Global

Partnership on Artificial Intelligence (GPAI), which aims to support AI development

through international collaboration and capacity building, are a step in the right direction.

GPAI provides a platform for countries to collaborate on AI policy, ethics, and research,

while also ensuring that developing nations have the resources and support, they need

to implement AI solutions (Jariwala, 2024, pp. 1-7).

Efforts on building capacity should focus on developing local AI expertise, building the

necessary digital infrastructure, and ensuring access to the data and tools required for

successful AI adoption. Furthermore, international cooperation can help create training

programs, digital literacy initiatives, and collaborative research projects that enable

developing countries to leapfrog technological barriers and fully participate in the global

AI ecosystem (Jariwala, 2024, pp. 1-7).

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Artificial Intelligence and International Relations:

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Sérgio Silva

Leveraging AI for Peacebuilding

AI’s potential to prevent conflict, promote stability, and contribute to peacebuilding

efforts should be actively pursued by international organizations and governments. AI

can be a powerful tool for early warning systems, conflict prevention, and post-conflict

reconstruction, especially when integrated with existing peacekeeping operations.

AI can be leveraged for conflict prevention by analysing large datasets from social media,

news outlets, and government reports to detect early warning signs of political instability,

ethnic tensions, or humanitarian crises. Predictive models powered by AI can help

diplomats and peacekeepers act pre-emptively to defuse conflicts before they escalate.

For example, AI could help identify patterns of violence in conflict-prone regions, enabling

international organizations like the UN to deploy peacekeeping forces or humanitarian

aid swiftly.

In addition, AI technologies can contribute to conflict resolution by facilitating dialogue

between opposing parties, analysing negotiation dynamics, and suggesting potential

compromise solutions. Automated negotiation platforms, powered by AI, can analyse the

preferences and positions of different stakeholders in peace negotiations, providing

diplomats with insights on how to bridge divides and reach a mutually agreeable solution

(Carneiro, Novais, & Neves, 2014, pp. 170-172).

Finally, AI can assist in post-conflict reconstruction by helping governments and

international agencies to rebuild infrastructure, improve governance, and promote social

cohesion. Tools driven by AI can optimize resource allocation, provide insights driven by

data for rebuilding efforts, and assess the effectiveness of various peacebuilding

programs (Carneiro, Novais, & Neves, 2014, pp. 173-175).

Conclusion

AI is undeniably a transformative force in the field of International Relations, bringing

new opportunities and challenges in areas such as diplomacy, security, and governance.

The potential for AI to enhance decision-making, improve conflict resolution, and

promote effective governance is vast. Predictive analytics, automated negotiation

systems, and digital diplomacy are just a few examples of how AI can significantly

reshape the way states interact and manage global affairs.

However, as AI technologies advance, their integration into the global order must be

approached with caution. Ethical concerns, such as the risk of weaponization,

misinformation, bias, and the widening digital divide, demand careful consideration.

These challenges highlight the need for robust regulatory frameworks that ensure AI is

developed and applied in ways that are transparent, equitable, and aligned with human

rights.

Furthermore, inclusivity is paramount. Wealthier nations or corporations should not

dominate the global AI landscape. Instead, international cooperation must be

emphasized, ensuring that developing countries have access to AI technologies and the

resources needed to integrate them into their own governance structures.

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Artificial Intelligence and International Relations:

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Sérgio Silva

Interpreting AI through established theories of international relations also enriches our

understanding of its role in global politics. From a realist perspective, the competition

between the United States and China over AI development illustrates how technological

leadership translates into geopolitical power. A liberal lens, by contrast, highlights the

potential of international organizations such as the UN, WTO, and UNESCO to foster

cooperation and collective governance of AI. Constructivist approaches, meanwhile, draw

attention to how AI technologies shape norms, perceptions, and identities in diplomacy

and global governance. These perspectives confirm that AI is not merely a technological

tool but also a political phenomenon that both reflects and reshapes power, cooperation,

and legitimacy in the international system.

By fostering collaboration between nations, international organizations, and the private

sector, and by establishing clear and inclusive policies, states can unlock AI's full potential

to promote peace, prosperity, and global stability. As AI continues to evolve, it will

undoubtedly shape the future of international relations. With careful oversight and a

commitment to ethical principles, AI can be a powerful tool for building a more just and

harmonious world.

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