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Universidade Autónoma de Lisboa
e-ISSN: 1647-7251
VOL. 16, Nº. 1
May-October 2025
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NAVIGATING CHINA’S GLOBAL FOREIGN SECURITY STRATEGY: ASSESSING
THE ACHIEVEMENTS AND CHALLENGES OF THE BELT AND ROAD
INITIATIVE AFTER A DECADE OF IMPLEMENTATION
VU THI PHUONG LE
levtp@vinhuni.edu.vn.
Ph.D., she is Head of the Faculty of Politics and Journalism at College of Social Sciences and
Humanities, Vinh University (Vietnam). Her research focuses on international relations in Asia,
particularly political relations in East Asia and Southeast Asia. https://orcid.org/0009-0000-5883-
3951
LE HOANG KIET
kietlh.tg@yersin.edu.vn
Ph.D. candidate in International Relations. He is a scholar and lecturer currently working at
Yersin University (Vietnam). He has a Bachelor’s degree in Political Science and a Master’s degree
in Public Policy and has built an impressive academic portfolio in the field of social sciences. His
research interests are in international relations, especially in the Indo-Pacific region.
https://orcid.org/0009-0002-9968-1952
TRAN XUAN HIEP
txhiep@ued.udn.vn
Associate Professor, Ph.D.. He is lecturer at The University of Da Nang, University of Science and
Education (Vietnam). His research interests include general political and international relations
issues, the Southeast Asian and Indo-Pacific regions, and Vietnam’s international integration.
https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5236-993X
Abstract
The Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) serves as a central component of China’s foreign security
strategy under Xi Jinping, aimed at achieving the “two centenary goals” and realizing the
“Chinese Dream”. This study utilizes a document analysis approach to assess the objectives,
positive outcomes, and challenges that the BRI has encountered in the strategic repositioning
of China’s foreign security after a decade of global implementation (2013-2023). The research
focuses on three main aspects: (i) Analyzing China’s foreign security strategic objectives
through the BRI, including positioning China as a friendly major power, promoting economic
development, safeguarding strategic maritime routes, and shaping a geopolitical landscape
favorable to China’s interests; (ii) Evaluating the positive outcomes achieved, such as
enhancing influence through “policy connectivity”, expanding soft power, establishing financial
institutions, boosting overseas infrastructure investments, and fostering economic and
financial linkages; and (iii) Identifying the major challenges BRI faces, including strategic
competition from other major powers, concerns from participating countries about “debt-trap
diplomacy”, risks to Chinese enterprises investing abroad, and potential failure due to external
shocks such as the COVID-19 pandemic and the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Based on this
analysis, the study concludes that overcoming these challenges will be crucial for China to
achieve its strategic objectives in foreign security through the BRI.
Keywords
BRI, China’s foreign security strategy, maritime security, geopolitical influence, infrastructure
investment.
JANUS.NET, e-journal of International Relations
e-ISSN: 1647-7251
VOL. 16, Nº. 1
May-October 2025, pp. 265-296
Navigating China’s Global Foreign Security Strategy: Assessing The Achievements And
Challenges Of The Belt And Road Initiative After A Decade Of Implementation
Vu Thi Phuong Le, Le Hoang Kiet, Tran Xuan Hiep
266
Resumo
A Iniciativa Uma Faixa, Uma Rota (Belt and Road Initiative, BRI) serve como componente
central da estratégia de segurança externa da China sob Xi Jinping, visando alcançar as "duas
metas centenárias" e realizar o "Sonho Chinês". Este estudo utiliza uma abordagem de análise
documental para avaliar os objetivos, resultados positivos e desafios que a BRI encontrou no
reposicionamento estratégico da segurança externa da China após uma década de
implementação global (2013-2023). A pesquisa concentra-se em três aspetos principais: (i)
Análise dos objetivos estratégicos de segurança externa da China através da BRI, incluindo o
posicionamento da China como uma grande potência amigável, promoção do desenvolvimento
econômico, salvaguarda de rotas marítimas estratégicas e formação de uma paisagem
geopolítica favorável aos interesses chineses; (ii) Avaliação dos resultados positivos
alcançados, como o aumento da influência através da "conectividade política", expansão do
poder brando, estabelecimento de instituições financeiras, impulso aos investimentos em
infraestrutura no exterior e fomento de vínculos econômicos e financeiros; e (iii) Identificação
dos principais desafios que a BRI enfrenta, incluindo a competição estratégica de outras
grandes potências, preocupações dos países participantes sobre a "diplomacia da armadilha
da dívida", riscos para empresas chinesas que investem no exterior e potencial fracasso
devido a choques externos como a pandemia de COVID-19 e o conflito Rússia-Ucrânia. Com
base nesta análise, o estudo conclui que superar estes desafios será crucial para a China
alcançar seus objetivos estratégicos de segurança externa através da BRI.
Palavras-chave
BRI, estratégia de segurança externa da China, segurança marítima, influência geopolítica,
investimento em infraestrutura.
How to cite this article
Le, Vu Thi Phuong, Kiet, Le Hoang & Hiep, Tran Xuan (2025). Navigating China’s Global Foreign
Security Strategy: Assessing The Achievements And Challenges Of The Belt And Road Initiative
After A Decade Of Implementation. Janus.net, e-journal of international relations. VOL. 16, Nº. 1.
May-October 2025, pp. 265-296. DOI https://doi.org/10.26619/1647-7251.16.1.13.
Article submitted on 30 July 2024 and accepted for publication on 20 September 2024.
JANUS.NET, e-journal of International Relations
e-ISSN: 1647-7251
VOL. 16, Nº. 1
May-October 2025, pp. 265-296
Navigating China’s Global Foreign Security Strategy: Assessing The Achievements And
Challenges Of The Belt And Road Initiative After A Decade Of Implementation
Vu Thi Phuong Le, Le Hoang Kiet, Tran Xuan Hiep
267
NAVIGATING CHINA’S GLOBAL FOREIGN SECURITY STRATEGY:
ASSESSING THE ACHIEVEMENTS AND CHALLENGES OF THE
BELT AND ROAD INITIATIVE AFTER A DECADE OF
IMPLEMENTATION
VU THI PHUONG LE
LE HOANG KIET
TRAN XUAN HIEP
Introduction
China’s economic reform and international integration process, initiated in 1978 under
the leadership of Deng Xiaoping—referred to as the “architect of reform and opening-up
policy” has fundamentally transformed the country’s geopolitical position in the
contemporary international system. With a GDP reaching $14.72 trillion by 2024 (Global
PEO Services, 2024), China has established itself as the world’s second-largest economy
amid a chaotic world order facing numerous complex geopolitical dynamics: (i) The
Russia-Ukraine War in Eastern Europe; (ii) The Israel-Palestine War; and (iii) The
potential reconfiguration of US foreign policy toward an “anti-China” orientation under
the “America First” doctrine with Donald Trump’s potential second-term election in 2025
- 2029. Through examining its historical development trajectory, China’s rise exhibits the
characteristics of an emerging power within the process of restructuring regional and
global power balances. In this progression, the role of Xi Jinpingthe fifth-generation
leader—is considered pivotal in shaping China’s foundation and status as a superpower
both currently and in the future (Yang, 2017).
Foreign security strategy comprises a set of policies and actions designed to ensure a
nation’s security through managing relationships with other countries and maintaining
stability in the international environment (Michaels & Sus, 2025). For China, foreign
security strategy constitutes one of the two main pillars of its national security strategy,
aiming to protect China’s sovereignty, territorial integrity, and national interests, while
simultaneously creating favorable conditions for China’s economic development and
global influence (Cabestan, 2021). China’s foreign security strategy has undergone a
strategic transformation from the “keeping a low profile” principleproposed by Deng
Xiaoping after the 1989 Tiananmen Square incident amid tense relations with the West
to an “active participation” strategy under Xi Jinping since 2013 (Yan, 2014). While the
previous strategy emphasized “cautious accumulation of internal strength and
JANUS.NET, e-journal of International Relations
e-ISSN: 1647-7251
VOL. 16, Nº. 1
May-October 2025, pp. 265-296
Navigating China’s Global Foreign Security Strategy: Assessing The Achievements And
Challenges Of The Belt And Road Initiative After A Decade Of Implementation
Vu Thi Phuong Le, Le Hoang Kiet, Tran Xuan Hiep
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development of national potential” (Yan, 2014) the current period witnesses a China
“actively shaping a new international order through global geopolitical and economic
initiatives” (Yan, 2014). This is demonstrated through Beijing’s proactive proposal of
Chinese-led regional security mechanisms, while simultaneously asserting firm positions
on core sovereignty issues such as Taiwan and territorial disputes in the East Sea
(Cabestan, 2021). In the context of signs of declining US global influence, particularly
during Donald Trump’s first term which demonstrated inadequate responsibility and
global leadership during the COVID-19 pandemic, China is actively positioning itself as a
responsible power in addressing global challenges and restructuring the world order
(Thompson, 2020).
In the context of the restructuring of the contemporary world order, major powers are
repositioning their national security strategies, not only to protect core interests but also
to establish influential positions within the international system (Ahrari, 2011). Under Xi
Jinping’s leadership since the 18th National Congress of the Chinese Communist Party,
Beijing has demonstrated a transformation in its foreign security strategy from a passive
stance to “wolf warrior diplomacy”a more assertive diplomatic approach in protecting
and promoting national interests (Sullivan & Wang, 2023). This shift in China’s foreign
security strategy reflects not only the internal dynamics of the Chinese Communist Party
but also creates widespread ripple effects, reshaping the geopolitical structure and
foreign policy environment in strategic subregions of Northeast Asia, Southeast Asia,
Central Asia, and South Asia. To realize the “two centenary goals” and the “Chinese
Dream”, Beijing has implemented a system of global strategic initiatives, including: (i)
the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI); (ii) the Global Security Initiative (GSI); (iii) the
Maritime Power Strategy; and (iv) the Global Data Security Initiative (GDSI).
Xiao (2016) characterizes China’s foreign security strategy as a comprehensive
mechanism that not only addresses “existing” and “potential” challenges but also creates
a foundation for Beijing’s rise as a global power capable of balancing with Washington.
The central axis of this strategy is the BRI, announced by Xi Jinping in 2013 in Indonesia
and Kazakhstan as a strategic framework aimed at expanding China’s geopolitical
influence at regional and global levels (Beeson & Crawford, 2023). During its decade of
implementation, the Chinese Communist Party has flexibly adjusted the BRI to adapt to
the intensely fluctuating international dynamics. Although this initiative has achieved
significant accomplishments in expanding China’s global influence, the developmental
trajectory of the BRI faces increasingly complex geostrategic challenges. This is clearly
demonstrated through the formation of counterbalancing mechanisms such as the QUAD
led by the US and India, along with strategic adjustments by Western powers and allies
aimed at counterbalancing China’s growing influence in the region and globally (Yang,
2017). These developments reflect the multidimensional interaction between three
factors: (i) Global power competition; (ii) Regional geopolitical dynamics; and (iii) China’s
comprehensive development strategy in its journey to affirm its status as a global power.
This research aims to analyze and evaluate the achievements and challenges in the
implementation of China’s foreign security strategy through the BRI during the period
2013-2023. The urgency of this research is demonstrated through the key role of the BRI
in China’s great power diplomacy strategy in the context of a world order being
restructured by multiple impacts from the chaotic state of world politics. Through
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e-ISSN: 1647-7251
VOL. 16, Nº. 1
May-October 2025, pp. 265-296
Navigating China’s Global Foreign Security Strategy: Assessing The Achievements And
Challenges Of The Belt And Road Initiative After A Decade Of Implementation
Vu Thi Phuong Le, Le Hoang Kiet, Tran Xuan Hiep
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analyzing the BRI—an important component in China’s foreign security strategic
frameworkthis research contributes to the academic understanding of key issues in
contemporary international relations, including global governance, regional security
dynamics, and strategic competition between major powers in the 21st century. To
achieve the research objectives, this paper focuses on addressing three core research
questions:
(i) What are China’s foreign security strategic objectives within the BRI framework?
(ii) What achievements has China’s foreign security strategy through the BRI
accomplished during the period 2013-2023?
(iii) What challenges has China’s foreign security strategy through the BRI encountered
during the period 2013-2023?
Methodology
This study employs a rigorous document analysis method to examine China’s foreign
security strategy through the BRI during the period 2013-2023. Document analysis is
selected as the primary research methodology due to its effectiveness in systematically
evaluating and interpreting documentary evidence to elicit meaning, gain understanding,
and develop empirical knowledge about complex geopolitical phenomena. The research
adopts a qualitative analytical approach centered on document analysis to investigate
the strategic objectives, achievements, and challenges of China’s foreign security
strategy through the BRI. This method is particularly appropriate given the complexity
of the subject matter, which encompasses multifaceted geopolitical dynamics across
diverse regions and involves numerous stakeholders with varying interests and
perspectives.
The documentary evidence was collected through a comprehensive search of multiple
sources to ensure triangulation and validity of findings:
(i) Official Chinese policy documents: including white papers, policy pronouncements,
and official statements from the Chinese Communist Party and government ministries
related to the BRI and foreign security strategy (2013-2023).
(ii) International organizational reports: documents from multilateral institutions such
as the World Bank (WB), Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB), and relevant
regional organizations that provide assessments of BRI projects and their impacts.
(iii) Academic research: scholarly articles, books, and research papers from reputable
academic journals focusing on China’s foreign policy, international relations theory,
geopolitics, and infrastructure development.
(iv) Think tank publications: reports and analyses from leading international and regional
think tanks specializing in Asian security affairs, economic development, and great power
competition.
(v) Media reports: selective integration of credible news sources providing factual
reporting on BRI developments, project implementations, and international responses.
JANUS.NET, e-journal of International Relations
e-ISSN: 1647-7251
VOL. 16, Nº. 1
May-October 2025, pp. 265-296
Navigating China’s Global Foreign Security Strategy: Assessing The Achievements And
Challenges Of The Belt And Road Initiative After A Decade Of Implementation
Vu Thi Phuong Le, Le Hoang Kiet, Tran Xuan Hiep
270
The collected documents were analyzed using a systematic approach, following a three-
phase analytical framework:
Phase 1: Identification and Classification of Content
The initial documents were meticulously screened, selected from reputable sources, and
classified based on their relevance to the three research questions outlined in the
introduction:
(i) Documents related to China’s foreign security strategy objectives within the BRI
framework.
(ii) Documents concerning the achievements of China’s foreign security strategy through
the BRI (2013-2023).
(iii) Documents addressing the challenges faced by China’s foreign security strategy
through the BRI (2013-2023).
Phase 2: Thematic Analysis
Within each category, the documents were analyzed thematically through an iterative
coding process. This process included:
(i) Open coding: identifying initial concepts and themes emerging from the documents.
(ii) Axial coding: establishing relationships between the identified themes.
(iii) Selective coding: integrating and refining the themes into coherent analytical
frameworks.
This thematic analysis aimed to identify recurring patterns, strategic narratives, key
policy initiatives, project implementations, and international responses, providing
insights into China’s foreign security objectives, achievements, and challenges through
the BRI.
Phase 3: Interpretive Analysis
The final phase of analysis involved interpretive examination of the identified themes to
develop a comprehensive understanding of:
(i) The strategic logic underlying China’s foreign security objectives in the new era under
Xi Jinping, through the BRI.
(ii) The achievements of China’s foreign security strategy through the BRI, realized over
a decade of global implementation.
(iii) The multidimensional challenges faced by the BRI as a tool for global geopolitical and
geoeconomic expansion.
In general, this study primarily adopts a traditional qualitative document analysis
method, allowing for this interpretive process to be structured within a multifaceted
system, encompassing various fields such as economics, politics, culture, society, and
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Navigating China’s Global Foreign Security Strategy: Assessing The Achievements And
Challenges Of The Belt And Road Initiative After A Decade Of Implementation
Vu Thi Phuong Le, Le Hoang Kiet, Tran Xuan Hiep
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environment. This approach is intended to reassess the achievements and challenges of
China’s decade-long shift in foreign security strategy from “keeping a low profile to
“actively participating” under Xi Jinping through the BRI. In our view, evaluating an
international project of unprecedented scale in global trade history, such as the BRI,
requires a comprehensive perspective integrating multiple angles and fields to fully grasp
its magnitude, success, and limitations. Consequently, this study will contribute findings
on the achievements and challenges of China’s foreign security strategy through the BRI
during a decade of implementation to broader academic debates on the adjustment of
foreign security strategies by rising powers in the 21st century, and the transformation
of the new international order influenced by strategic competition among major powers,
especially the US-China rivalry.
1. What is the BRI?
“Around 140 BCE during China’s Han Dynasty, Zhang Qian, a royal envoy,
undertook a journey westward from Chang’an (now Xi’an in Shaanxi
Province), establishing a land route connecting East and West. Many centuries
later, during the Tang, Song, and Yuan dynasties, the Silk Road routes
flourished both on land and sea, facilitating trade between East and West. In
the early 15th century, Zheng He, the famous navigator of China’s Ming
Dynasty, made seven voyages to the Western Seas, promoting trade along
the maritime silk routes… These roads facilitated exchange and mutual
learning between Eastern and Western civilizations, promoted regional
development and prosperity, and shaped the Silk Road spirit characterized by
peace and cooperation, openness and inclusiveness, mutual learning and
mutual benefit” (China’s State Council Information Office, 2023).
Beijing has skillfully utilized this historical heritage, constructing a cultural inheritance
argument to justify contemporary geopolitical strategy. By connecting the “One Belt, One
Road” (OBOR) Initiative with the ancient Silk Road, the Chinese state has created a
coherent narrative of historical continuity, in which the BRI is described as a natural
revival of traditional trade networks associated with the “greatness” of Chinese
civilization. This approach not only aims to consolidate the initiative’s legitimacy within
China but also seeks to build a positive interpretive framework internationally, mitigating
concerns about Beijing’s hegemonic ambitions. OBOR initially proposed by Xi Jinping in
2013 during visits to Nazarbayev University (Kazakhstan) and spoke to the Indonesian
National Assembly after successfully consolidating power and assuming Chinese
leadership in 2012 (Ginsburg, 2021). During these diplomatic engagements, Xi Jinping
clearly articulated China’s new foreign security strategic vision through a modern OBOR,
marking the beginning of a transformation from the keeping a low profile” strategy to
an “active participation” strategy, while also initiating what would later develop into the
BRI (Jingping, 2019: 702). Initially, the initiative only included the 21st Century Maritime
Silk Road (MSR) and the Silk Road Economic Belt (SREB), and subsequently the BRI
expanded its scope with the inclusion of the Digital Silk Road (DSR) in 2015. The MSR
outlines an economic route from China’s eastern coastal ports, across the East Sea to the
JANUS.NET, e-journal of International Relations
e-ISSN: 1647-7251
VOL. 16, Nº. 1
May-October 2025, pp. 265-296
Navigating China’s Global Foreign Security Strategy: Assessing The Achievements And
Challenges Of The Belt And Road Initiative After A Decade Of Implementation
Vu Thi Phuong Le, Le Hoang Kiet, Tran Xuan Hiep
272
Indian Ocean and Pacific Ocean, ultimately converging with the SREB in Venice, Italy.
Additionally, the SREB delineates three strategic economic corridors: (i) A corridor
connecting China with the Persian Gulf and the Mediterranean through Central Asia and
West Asia; (ii) A corridor connecting China with the Indian Ocean through Southeast Asia
and South Asia; and (iii) A corridor connecting China with the Baltic region in Europe
through Central Asia, Russia, and West Asia (Wang et al., 2024). Simultaneously, the
DSR plays a role in establishing a digital corridor facilitated by underwater fiber optic
cables, enhancing internet connectivity between Asia, Europe, and Africa, as Zhao (2021)
described This digital infrastructure not only promotes technological advancement but
also lays the foundation for modern information technology systems, including broadband
networks, e-commerce centers, and smart cities, in countries participating in the BRI”.
Conceptually, the BRI resembles two expanding arcs encompassing the continents of
Asia, Europe, and Africa, leveraging established trade routes and coastal port cities as
focal points (Schulhof et al., 2022). This framework forms the basis for six major
economic corridors, including routes through Russia, Mongolia, West Asia, the East China
Sea and East Sea, the Indochina Peninsula, Bangladesh, Pakistan, India, and Myanmar.
These corridors serve as regional connectivity channels, facilitated by a network of critical
infrastructure projects, thereby promoting interdependence and cooperation among
participating countries (Li et al., 2022). In 2014, China outlined a comprehensive three-
step roadmap for developing the BRI. This roadmap extends from the initiative’s inception
in 2013 until 2049, divided into strategic phases: (i) Momentum-building phase (2013-
2016); (ii) Planning phase (2016-2021); and (iii) Implementation phase (2021-2049).
Through this strategic framework, China aims to expand its geopolitical and geostrategic
influence in the region, enabling the country to rise to the status of a global power
comparable both economically and politically with the US. The significance of the BRI is
emphasized by its powerful economic impacts on the global economy, creating an
initiative of immense scale and funding with participation from numerous countries
worldwide. Countries directly or indirectly participating in the BRI collectively contribute
approximately 55% of global GDP, encompassing about 70% of the world’s population
and 75% of global resources. Within this scope, the BRI’s direct cooperation includes 64
countries with a total population of 4.4 billion people, representing 63% of the global
population and an estimated economic output of approximately $21 trillion, accounting
for 29% of global GDP (Chinese Communist Party, 2018: 102). As of 2023, a total of 150
countries (including China) have signed documents to participate in China’s BRI (see
Figure 1).
The institutionalization of the BRI within the CCP framework reflects the strategic
importance of this initiative in China’s national policy agenda under Xi Jinping. Initially
absent from official CCP documents, the BRI was formally recognized and confirmed in
the Report of the 19th National Congress of the Chinese Communist Party in 2017
(Chinese Communist Party, 2018: 117). This institutionalization emphasizes the key role
of the BRI in China’s vision for the new era, as well as affirming Beijing’s “active
participation” strategy in the global economy to directly counter containment measures
by the US and Western allies, as Xi Jinping clearly stated, who emphasized the global
importance of this initiative by declaring: “The BRI originates from China but benefits the
entire world” (Li et al., 2022). Commenting on the role of the BRI for China, Simonov
(2025) described “This initiative enhances China’s global influence, prompting other
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Navigating China’s Global Foreign Security Strategy: Assessing The Achievements And
Challenges Of The Belt And Road Initiative After A Decade Of Implementation
Vu Thi Phuong Le, Le Hoang Kiet, Tran Xuan Hiep
273
major actors to take countermeasures. One such response is the policy of the US and the
Group of Seven (G7) countries that seeks to reorient China’s partners”.
Figure 1. Number of countries that have joined China’s BRI as of December 2023
Sources: Statista (2023).
Bharti (2023) emphasizes the role of the BRI in promoting cooperation across five key
areas: (i) Policy; (ii) Infrastructure; (iii) Trade relations; (iv) Finance; and (v) People-to-
people connectivity. Originating from the principle of “a community of shared destiny”
and guided by the spirit of “three togethers”, including (i) Joint discussion; (ii) Joint
development; and (iii) Joint benefits. The BRI represents one of the most ambitious
efforts in the annals of global trade history, and the country driving this project is China
an emerging global power challenging a world order under American “hegemony”, as
Chaziza (2023) has recognized:
“The paramount importance of the BRI will shape success or failure for China’s
future, illuminating Xi Jinping’s unwavering commitment to implementing this
strategy. This belief highlights the strategic imperative placed on the BRI
within China’s comprehensive national strategy under Xi Jinping’s leadership
to counter the injustices that the Chinese believe the US is attempting to lead
Western allies in containing their rise”.
In general, the BRI is a strategy of unprecedented scale in global trade history, spanning
numerous countries and sectors, with the consolidation of China’s diplomatic strategy
emerging as a central objective to counter and challenge American “hegemony”. With its
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Navigating China’s Global Foreign Security Strategy: Assessing The Achievements And
Challenges Of The Belt And Road Initiative After A Decade Of Implementation
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significance, the BRI holds the role of a foundational strategy in realizing the “two
centenary goals” and the “Chinese Dream”. Throughout its implementation, China has
transformed the BRI into vast spider-like networks connecting continents, from Asia to
Europe, from Asia to Africa, and from Asia to Oceania and the Americas. These networks
envision one endpoint as Europe’s highly developed economic region and the other
endpoint as the dynamic East Asian economic region. Within this framework, countries
situated between these endpoints are positioned to potentially develop into significant
economies in the near future.
2. China’s Foreign Security Strategic Objectives Through the BRI
In the context of an increasingly complex and challenging global security environment,
coupled with the process of repositioning its role and stature during its rise, China has
undertaken adjustments to its foreign security strategy aimed at adaptation and position
consolidation. Within this framework, the BRI emerges as a central element, playing a
key role in realizing China’s strategic objectives on the international stage. Through the
BRI, China’s foreign security strategy aims to achieve the following objectives:
First, the BRI is used by China as a strategic tool to build and strengthen its image as a
peaceful, friendly, and responsible power in the perception of the international
community (Li et al., 2022). China clearly recognizes that to be acknowledged as a true
global power, the country needs to be viewed by other nations as an entity rising
peacefully, committed to promoting values oriented toward the common prosperity of
humanity (Schulhof et al., 2022). Accordingly, through the BRI, China actively promotes
the concept of a “Community of Shared Destiny”, emphasizing harmony between national
interests and the principle of mutually beneficial cooperation. This is considered the
ideological foundation for creating a multipolar, peaceful world order where countries
share benefits and bear risks (Chaziza, 2023). China positions the BRI as an initiative
based on common interests, where the level of contribution exceeds the benefits
received, with the primary goal of promoting development and prosperity for participating
countries, especially those in the Global South. Moreover, the BRI is also an important
means to realize China’s long-term objectives, including the “two centenaries” and the
“Chinese Dream” of national rejuvenation. These ambitions are linked to efforts to
overcome historical challenges, including more than a century of population control
policies, leading to a continuous decline in birth rates for 7 years from 2016 to 2023
(Moritsugu, 2024). Additionally, to strengthen the image of a friendly power, China
continuously promotes public welfare projects within the BRI framework and implements
a multi-channel communication strategy. The benefits of this initiative are widely
promoted through mass media, conferences, seminars, and high-level diplomatic events
globally. Notably, at the 20th National Congress of the Chinese Communist Party (2022),
China affirmed the pursuit of a proactive and expansive strategy, including:
“Establishing a comprehensive global network of high-quality free trade
zones, accelerating the development of pilot free trade zones, such as the
Hainan Free Trade Port, and jointly promoting the BRI initiative, which has
received significant recognition as a valuable international cooperation effort”.
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May-October 2025, pp. 265-296
Navigating China’s Global Foreign Security Strategy: Assessing The Achievements And
Challenges Of The Belt And Road Initiative After A Decade Of Implementation
Vu Thi Phuong Le, Le Hoang Kiet, Tran Xuan Hiep
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Therefore, the BRI is not merely an infrastructure or economic project but also a strategic
platform for China to assert its position as a friendly and responsible global power.
Through combining economic cooperation, public diplomacy, and ideological orientation,
China leverages the BRI to shape a positive national image while consolidating its
influence in the international system.
Second, the BRI is a strategic tool for China to consolidate its power and economic
networks that are increasingly under pressure from the US and Western allies, especially
since Donald Trump’s first term (2017-2021) when the trade war with China erupted.
From a security perspective, the BRI allows China to expand its sphere of influence and
promote comprehensive economic development with diverse supply networks worldwide,
avoiding excessive dependence on US and Western allied markets (Carmody &
Wainwright, 2022). With its extensive geographical scope, encompassing both land and
maritime routes, the BRI targets two main areas: (i) Infrastructure; and (ii) Energy.
Regarding infrastructure, the BRI addresses two challenges that China currently faces:
(i) Excess production capacity; and (ii) Large foreign exchange reserves. By creating
connectivity, the BRI provides China with a pathway to invest capital, technology, and
infrastructure, opening “new doors” for Chinese companies to access and penetrate
foreign markets, especially developing countries in the “Southern Hemisphere” to reduce
pressure on domestic production and business operations (Zhao, 2021). By establishing
infrastructure connections spanning across regions and continents, the BRI is poised to
unlock powerful opportunities for “Made in China” branded goods to saturate the entire
global market. This will be facilitated through the seamless integration of transportation
networks and economic connectivity, promoting enhanced trade and economic
cooperation on a global scale. Furthermore, with the 21st century celebrated as the
“century of seas and oceans”, the MSR aspect of the BRI emerges as a key instrument
for China to realize its maritime ambitions. Currently, the String of Pearls Strategy is
viewed as China’s major success in expanding its influence in the Indo-Pacific region
through investment in seaports from BRI funding, as assessed by Sparling (2020)
described:
“The ports along China’s ‘string of pearls’ in the Indian Ocean are designed to
be commercial trading posts to bolster China’s role in international trade.
However, they have increasingly come to play a potentially more menacing
role as dual-use ports that can give the strengthened Chinese navy a global
reach it lacked entirely just a few years ago”.
Therefore, the BRI serves as a platform for China to extend its influence, exploit maritime
resources, and engage in strategic commitments, particularly in the context of regional
security dynamics and competition with the US and Western allies.
Energy security is another crucial objective underpinning China’s BRI. As a power with a
population of 1.4 billion and on a trajectory of strong economic development, China has
enormous energy consumption needs to operate its national economy. “Oil, gas and coal
imports to China account for around 85 percent, 40 percent and 7 percent of the country’s
domestic consumption, respectively; and about 18 percent, 16 percent and 18 percent
of the global trade of these commodities” (Nakhle, 2023). To address this dependency,
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China has announced plans to enhance domestic energy production by 2030 with a vision
extending to 2035. This strategy includes prioritizing the expansion of domestic oil and
gas reserves, increasing production, and actively exploiting both onshore and offshore
resources.
Therefore, strengthening energy security is one of the primary objectives of the BRI.
Through this initiative, China aims to diversify its energy supply sources, thereby
reinforcing energy security in the context of the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict, which
has disrupted global energy supply chains. Simultaneously, the BRI creates pathways for
cooperation, particularly in the energy sector, attracting energy-exporting countries to
collaborate with China. By establishing pipeline connections with Central Asian countries,
Russia, and others, China seeks to reduce energy import costs and strengthen national
energy security. Consequently, since the Russia-Ukraine conflict erupted in 2022, China’s
energy sector supply has improved significantly, with Moscow enhancing comprehensive
cooperation with Beijing to redirect the European energy market toward China. This has
helped both powers address core needs in their national security strategies, as Down et
al. (2023) have demonstrated:
“In 2021-2023, Russia’s crude oil exports to China increased by one-third,
while coal and LNG exports nearly doubled. In 2023, Russia was China’s
largest crude oil supplier, second-largest coal supplier, and third-largest LNG
supplier. Russia is also an increasingly important pipeline gas exporter to
China. It has increased gas deliveries via the Power of Siberia 1 (PS-1)
pipeline from 10.4 bcm in 2021 to 22.7 bcm in 2023, accounting for 34
percent of China’s pipeline gas imports. Russia expects PS-1 to reach its
maximum capacity of 38 bcm/year by 2025. Additionally, China and Russia
signed an agreement in early February 2022 for another pipeline, the Far
Eastern Route, to supply 10 bcm/year by 2027”.
Third, the BRI serves as a means for China to protect its maritime security and advance
its sea power strategy. A core principle in China’s approach to foreign security, as
demonstrated through the BRI, is protecting its maritime interests and strengthening
security measures in the disputed “claimed” waters in the East Sea with Southeast Asian
nations such as Vietnam, the Philippines, Brunei, Malaysia, and Indonesia (Hung et al.,
2025). As coastal nations aim to develop maritime infrastructure and expand their reach
into the sea, China’s MSR initiative provides a convenient channel for financial and
security activities.
China has significantly increased investments with a primary focus on accessing and
controlling strategically important seaports for both military and semi-military purposes,
specifically efforts to invest in military bases and ports through the String of Pearls
strategy extending from Eastern China to Africa, including Cambodia’s Ream Naval Base,
Myanmar’s Coco Island and Kyaukpyu Port, Bangladesh’s Chittagong Port, Sri Lanka’s
Hambantota Port, the Maldives’s Male Port, Pakistan’s Gwadar Port, Khartoum Port and
Port Sudan in Sudan, as well as Bagamoyo Port in Tanzania (Huang, 2018). This effort
allows China to effectively address what they consider maritime security challenges,
particularly the “Malacca dilemma” a term denoting China’s strategic vulnerability
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related to its dependence on these maritime chokepoints (Paszak, 2021). To achieve this
objective, China uses financial instruments such as the AIIB and other channels to
transfer money and influence other countries regionally and globally to garner support
for its “claims” and militarization activities in the East Sea (Carmody & Wainwright,
2022). According to the assessment of the Asia Maritime Transparency Initiative (2023)
has described it specifically as follows:
“China has substantially expanded its ability to monitor and project power
throughout the East Sea via the construction of dual civilian-military bases at
its outposts in the disputed Spratly and Paracel Islands. These include new
radar and communications arrays, airstrips and hangars to accommodate
combat aircraft, and deployments of mobile surface-to-air and anti-ship cruise
missile systems... Combat radii for fighter aircraft are shown based on China’s
J-11 fighters while bomber ranges are based on China’s H-6 bombers, both
of which have been deployed to Woody Island. SAM and cruise missile ranges
are based on the HQ-9, YJ-62, and YJ-12B systems that have been deployed
across Woody Island, Fiery Cross Reef, Mischief Reef, and Subi Reef. Fighter
and bomber ranges at Fiery Cross, Mischief, and Subi Reefs represent
expected future deployments based on the hangars built to accommodate
those assets”.
The above assessment shows that China is increasingly militarizing islands that are under
Vietnam’s sovereignty but claimed by China to coercively monopolize the East Sea.
Furthermore, through politically calculated BRI investments in Southeast Asian countries,
Beijing has actively lobbied ASEAN nations to prevent a unified position on the East Sea
issue, thereby weakening the bloc’s ability to collectively counter China’s violations.
Cambodia (where China has access to the Ream naval base to enhance its influence in
the Gulf of Thailand and the East Sea) is a country “ready to block ASEAN policy-making
targeting China” (Epstein, 2024). WB (2023) conducted a study focusing on analyzing
Cambodia’s current economic situation, showing that Cambodia’s GDP growth now
depends primarily on the garment export industry; however, over 90% of the production
facilities are directly operated by Chinese owners. Additionally, China continues to be
Cambodia’s largest investor, having invested more than $3 billion USD in 2023, indicating
that the BRI plays a crucial role in implementing China’s ambitious maritime strategies
in the East Sea. Controlling critical port infrastructure will allow China to enhance power
projection capabilities and sustain naval operations offshore. Thus, the MSR strengthens
China’s ability to counter and control the region with the US, providing crucial strategic
depth for its naval forces. By shaping the security framework and strategic landscape
along critical maritime shipping routes, the MSR emerges as a key instrument for China
in pursuing its goal of achieving maritime supremacy. Ultimately, this initiative aims to
position China as a formidable maritime power capable of eclipsing the US to become the
dominant force in the Indo-Pacific region (Carmody & Wainwright, 2022).
Fourth, the BRI serves as a strategic tool for China to build a geopolitical landscape
favorable to its interests in the 21st century. Although China has repeatedly asserted
that “the BRI is not a geopolitical tool. It is a product of cooperation, aimed at economic
connectivity, promoting collaboration between countries and regions, not only in
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economic fields but also in cultural and social aspects, benefiting all. The goal of the BRI
is to build partnerships, not alliances” (China’s State Council Information Office, 2023)).
However, the role of the BRI in expanding China’s influence has been affirmed by many
international scholars, despite China’s efforts to deny its geopolitical nature. According
to several current case studies on the BRI by global scholars, the BRI plays an important
role in shaping a geopolitical environment conducive to China’s interests through the
following mechanisms:
(i) Establishing infrastructure systems to enhance control over strategic transportation
routes: BRI road, rail, and port development projects allow China to control critical trade
routes and resource transportation channels. This increases China’s geopolitical access
and influence in strategic regions such as Central Asia, the Persian Gulf, and Africa
(Schulhof et al. 2022).
(ii) Creating economic leverage through trade and investment: Economic and financial
linkages formed through the BRI enable China to develop trade and investment
partnerships with countries along the routes. This allows China to strengthen its economic
influence and create geopolitical leverage over these nations (Yu, 2024).
(iii) Developing multilateral mechanisms to shape regional order: Multilateral financial
and trade initiatives under the BRI such as the AIIB and Regional Comprehensive
Economic Partnership (RCEP) aim to establish a new economic-trade structure, creating
a foundation for China to shape a regional order aligned with its interests (Oakes, 2021).
(iv) Penetrating soft power domains to increase sociocultural influence: Cultural
exchanges, student exchanges, and the establishment of Chinese cultural centers abroad
under the BRI aim to promote Chinese values and lifestyle and increase China’s
attractiveness, thereby consolidating long-term geopolitical influence (Kiet et al., 2024).
Through these mechanisms, the BRI serves as an important tool helping China gradually
transform its geopolitical sphere of influence into a multilateral regional order aligned
with the country’s strategic objectives and interests in the 21st century (Beeson &
Crawford, 2023). In a decade of implementation, the BRI has helped China enhance its
geopolitical influence, a development that has raised significant concerns among Western
powers, especially the US. Beyond economic benefits, the BRI is an essential tool for
China to employ in the geopolitical competition of the 21st century, particularly against
the US and Western allies. This initiative allows China to demonstrate its power and
influence across numerous countries, regions, and continents. Consequently, the
resulting regional connectivity is expected to shift the geopolitical balance toward Asia,
with China as the focal point. Beside, the successful deployment of the MSR will help
China leverage economic influence, drawing regional countries closer into its sphere of
influence. Furthermore, the MSR functions as a strategic counterbalance to US
rebalancing efforts and economic agreements such as the Transatlantic Trade and
Investment Partnership (TTIP) and the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP), designed to
attract allies and partners. Through the BRI, Chinese leaders aspire to gradually gain
greater control, counter, and shape ongoing geopolitical developments in the neighboring
region (Zhao, 2021).
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In general, China’s foreign security strategy through the BRI under Xi Jinping has
undergone significant adjustments to adapt to an increasingly complex and dangerous
external security environment, as well as China’s self-awareness and “repositioning” on
the international stage, marking qualitative changes. However, this period is still defined
as a “strategic opportunity” requiring the Chinese nation to seize opportunities and break
through barriers. The overarching goal of China’s national security strategy, including its
foreign security strategy, “is to realize the rejuvenation dream of the Chinese nation,
restore its former glory and emerge as a strong, prosperous, and respected global power,
transcending its current status as a rising regional force” (Morky, 2023).
3. BRI: Assessing a decade of achievements under Xi Jinping
Since Xi Jinping assumed leadership of China in 2012, with the goal of transforming China
into a global power and revitalizing the inherent greatness of the ancient Chinese
civilization, China has intensified its implementation of a “proactive engagement” foreign
security strategy through the BRI, achieving notable results after a decade of
deployment.
First, at the forefront of China’s strategy is the active promotion of the BRI through what
is termed “policy connectivity”. Through various platforms including the ASEAN Regional
Forum (ARF), Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), Boao Forum for Asia (BFA),
Shangri-La Dialogue (SLD), as well as events such as the Hangzhou Summit and the Belt
and Road Forum, China has diligently disseminated the BRI agenda. This effort over the
past decade has facilitated the establishment of trust and attracted participation from
numerous countries across the world. In particular, the BRI Forums serve as significant
occasions to advocate for the initiative and cultivate cooperation with BRI target
countries:
(i) The First Belt and Road Forum for International Cooperation (BRF I) was held in May
2017 in Beijing with the theme Belt and Road: Cooperation for Common Prosperity”,
attended by 28 national leaders and international organizations (Institute for Strategy
and Policy Research in Industry and Trade, 2023).
(ii) The Second Belt and Road Forum for International Cooperation (BRF II) with the
theme “Shaping a Brighter Shared Future” was convened in Beijing in April 2019, with
the participation of 5,000 delegates from 150 countries and 90 international
organizations (Institute for Strategy and Policy Research in Industry and Trade, 2023).
Just two years after the official renaming to BRI at the 19th Chinese Communist Party
Congress, this event was celebrated as evidence of the initiative’s success despite US
opposition due to concerns that Beijing’s BRI provides China with greater geopolitical
influence at Washington’s expense” and warnings that participating countries risked
falling into a “debt trap” according to US policymakers (Garcia & Guerreiro, 2024).
(iii) The Third Belt and Road Forum for International Cooperation (BRF III) with the theme
“High-quality Belt and Road Cooperation: Together for Common Development and
Prosperity” was successfully held in October 2023 with the participation of over 4,000
delegates from 140 countries and 30 international organizations (Institute for Strategy
and Policy Research in Industry and Trade, 2023). Although throughout the 2019-2023
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period, China’s image regarding BRI was significantly diminished due to the impact of
several failed BRI projects (the Khorgos dry port near the Kazakhstan border (Central
Asia), Sri Lanka’s Hambantota port, and Malaysia’s incomplete East Coast Railway), the
achievements made throughout this process were numerous. The extensive participation
of 140 countries worldwide at the BRF III demonstrated the tangible benefits not only for
China but also for participating countries, further reinforcing the momentum of the BRI.
In a decade of implementation, the BRI has delivered remarkable results, bringing clear
advantages not only to China but also to countries actively participating in this initiative.
At the BRF III event, Xi Jinping declared:
“As of 2023, China has signed more than 200 cooperation documents within
the BRI framework with 150 countries and over 30 international
organizations, while launching more than 20 multilateral dialogue and
cooperation platforms in fields including railways, ports, finance, taxation,
energy, green development, green investment, disaster risk reduction, anti-
corruption, research groups, media, cultural exchanges,... generating nearly
1 trillion US dollars in investment” (Ministry of Foreign Affairs the People’s
Republic China, 2023).
The deep and global-scale participation of many countries around the world demonstrates
the success of the BRI throughout a decade of implementation. Particularly noteworthy
was Italy’s historic decision on March 23, 2019, to become the first G7 member to align
with the BRI—a significant achievement emphasizing China’s adeptness in attracting
international support and enhancing its global standing (Al Jazeera, 2019). Through
continuous advocacy via policy channels and influence on developments surrounding the
BRI, China seeks to consolidate the initiative’s credibility as a multilateral platform
dedicated to promoting global common interests. Simultaneously, the BRI also serves as
an effective geopolitical tool helping China expand its influence and shape the
international economic order in alignment with Beijing’s vision of global governance in
the 21st century.
Second, China has deployed a strategy to expand cultural influence through “people-to-
people connectivity” mechanisms. The policy document “Vision and Actions on Jointly
Building the SREB and 21st-Century MSR”, published in March 2015, identifies that
“people-to-people connectivity is the social foundation of the BRI” (Zhao, 2021). To
actualize this strategy, China has committed to enhancing academic exchanges,
promoting educational cooperation, and providing 10,000 scholarships for countries
along the BRI corridor (Woo, 2023). Although the BRI originated as a transcontinental
infrastructure development project, by 2016, the initiative had been expanded by China
to integrate education as a strategic component aimed at reinforcing and disseminating
Chinese cultural values globally, with higher education identified as a priority area (Woo,
2023).
The favorable results demonstrating the effectiveness of the educational strategy within
the BRI framework include a significant increase in international students in China. Prior
to the COVID-19 pandemic, the number of international students had reached 492,185
in 2018 (Woo, 2023), with the highest growth rates from Africa and Central Asia. China
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is now the world’s largest provider of higher education scholarships for African students,
with 12,000 scholarships awarded in 2020 (Woo, 2023). Through this strategy, China
aims to restructure the global higher education ecosystem that has been dominated by
Western models, while simultaneously elevating the status of leading educational
institutions such as Tsinghua University and Peking University as ideal academic
destinations for international students.
Additionally, China has developed a roadmap to enhance multidisciplinary cooperation
through the BRI, encompassing film, television, cultural heritage preservation, high-
quality human resource development, tourism, sports, healthcare, science and
technology, youth development, inter-party and inter-governmental dialogue, non-
governmental exchanges, and cultural-media cooperation. Notably, to mitigate public
debt risks and fiscal pressure on recipient countries of BRI project”, China has committed
to implementing social welfare projects and initiatives with direct impact on local
communities (Ministry of Foreign Affairs the People’s Republic China, 2023). This strategy
has attracted the participation of many countries previously hesitant about potential
negative economic impacts from the BRI.
In the complex geopolitical context created by the COVID-19 pandemic, the Russia-
Ukraine conflict, and strategic competition between major powers, the “people-to-people
connectivity” model has become a key pillar in the BRI architecture. Recognizing this
importance, the Chinese administration and BRI partner countries have proactively
promoted cultural exchanges and social linkages. As of 2023, China has signed cultural
and tourism cooperation documents with 144 BRI partner countries (China’s State
Council Information Office, 2023). China has created cooperation platforms with
participating countries, including the Silk Road International Theatre Federation, the Silk
Road International Museum Alliance, the Silk Road Arts Festival Network, the Silk Road
International Library Alliance, and the Silk Road International Museum and Art Gallery
Alliance. These platforms have a total of 562 members, including 326 cultural institutions
from 72 partner countries (China’s State Council Information Office, 2023). Specific
initiatives include the establishment of 16 cultural centers in member countries,
organizing more than 1,600 cultural events since 2014, and signing film production
cooperation agreements with 21 countries and territories participating in the initiative
(Vietnam Institute of Finance, 2023). Expanding this strategy, China has added 37
cultural centers and organized over 2,000 additional cultural events in BRI partner
countries (Vietnam Institute of Finance, 2023). By prioritizing people-to-people
interactions, China not only strengthens its national image but also creates attractive
momentum for countries still cautious about participating in the BRI. Specific initiatives
include the establishment of 16 cultural centers in member countries, organizing more
than 1,600 cultural events since 2014, and signing film production cooperation
agreements with 21 countries and territories participating in the initiative (Vietnam
Institute of Finance, 2023). Expanding this strategy, China has added 37 cultural centers
and organized over 2,000 additional cultural events in BRI partner countries (Vietnam
Institute of Finance, 2023). By prioritizing people-to-people interactions, China not only
strengthens its national image but also creates attractive momentum for countries still
cautious about participating in the BRI.
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Third, China has implemented a strategy to strengthen its competitive position and
economic influence through multilateral financial mechanisms. Access to investment
capital is a key factor for countries participating in the BRI. To meet this need, China has
established a dedicated financial ecosystem within the BRI framework, including the Silk
Road Fund (SRF) with a registered capital of $40 billion USD, the AIIB with resources of
$100 billion USD, and the New Development Bank (NDB) with an initial capital of $100
billion USD. These institutions are structured as strategic financial pillars of the initiative
(Institute for Strategy and Policy Research in Industry and Trade, 2023). As of now, the
AIIB (2023) has 110 member countries, including 96 full members and 14 prospective
members, representing 65% of the global population and 81% of global GDP. Through
the AIIB (2023) platform, China has mobilized financial resources amounting to $59.17
billion for 306 projects across 37 countries, with the objective of developing strategic
infrastructure and enhancing competitive capacity in international markets. In 2022, the
AIIB established a Special Fund Window mechanism, designed to improve the repayment
capability of AIIB loans by less developed members through an interest subsidy
mechanism. This initiative has contributed to improving the credibility and transparency
of BRI projects, which have faced allegations that behind BRI investments lies China’s
“debt trap” diplomacy strategy, intended to place recipient countries in Beijing’s orbit of
influence and control. Overall, China’s decision to use foreign exchange reserves to invest
in infrastructure to support developing economies and promote international trade is
viewed as a form of providing global public goods. In the AIIB structure, China holds the
largest share at 26.75% and possesses preferential voting rights, thereby enhancing its
influence and shaping a China-led financial mechanism (Kim, 2020). This move elevates
China’s competitive position with traditional Western-dominated international financial
institutions such as the WB and the International Monetary Fund (IMF), while promoting
the internationalization of the Chinese Yuan (CNY).
Fourth, the BRI has played a crucial catalytic role in expanding cross-border
infrastructure investment by Chinese corporations. Connectivity through multimodal
transportation infrastructure (both land and sea routes) has been identified as a strategic
priority of the BRI, creating a foundation for China to deploy resources to international
markets. According to quantitative analyses, the total investment capital necessary to
realize the BRI is estimated at approximately $1.4 trillion, more than 12 times the scale
of the Marshall Plan implemented by the US after World War II (Hiep & Kiet, 2024).
Infrastructure investment accounts for the dominant proportion in the BRI capital
structure. Countries participating in the BRI have attracted FDI from China with a total
value of $80 billion (Vietnam Institute of Finance, 2023). Furthermore, China has
developed more than 50 economic and trade cooperation zones in approximately 20 BRI
participating countries, contributing $1.1 billion in tax revenue and creating 180,000 new
job opportunities (Vietnam Institute of Finance, 2023). Several BRI projects have
achieved significant progress, such as the China-Thailand railway project and the oil
pipeline project with the Russian Federation. The strategic investment markets of the BRI
are primarily concentrated in the regions of Central Asia, Southeast Asia, and West Asia,
with special attention to the Middle East and Africa.
In investment activities on both land and sea routes, China is simultaneously
implementing multiple large-scale infrastructure projects. In the railway sector, plans are
being promoted to develop a high-speed rail network spanning 81,000 kilometers
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connecting BRI participating countriesexceeding the current total length of the entire
global high-speed rail system. In parallel, China has announced plans to allocate 35
trillion Yuan (equivalent to $503 billion USD) to strengthen and expand its domestic
railway network to more than 30,000 kilometers (Zhao, 2021). This expansion process
aims to establish connections between 80% of major cities within Chinese territory (Zhao,
2021). Regarding port infrastructure, China is focusing on building a network of
connection points with geostrategic value. As of 2023, China’s global presence in port
ownership and operation has expanded to nearly 100 ports in more than 50 countries
(Sly & Ledur, 2023). Notable strategic port projects include Djibouti, Piraeus, and
Gwadar. According to analysis by Nedopil (2023), the total value of construction contracts
related to the BRI has reached $573 billion since 2013. When including non-financial
investments, this total value approaches $1 trillion USD. Additionally, BRI projects with
significant valuations are being implemented on a global scale. Over the past decade,
this initiative has established partnerships with 32 international organizations and
attracted the participation of more than 150 countries and territories across continents
Latin America, Europe, Asia, and Africawith over 3,000 cooperation projects and a total
investment capital of approximately $1 trillion USD (China’s State Council Information
Office, 2023).
Fifth, China strategically positioned the BRI as an instrument to promote cross-national
trade and financial investment, thereby enhancing its comprehensive national power and
strategic competitive capacity with the US. Within the current global power structure,
China is identified as a competitor with the potential to surpass the US to become the
world’s leading economic power. Through the BRI mechanism, China has skillfully applied
“trade and financial leverage” in conjunction with the internationalization strategy of the
CNY, aiming to consolidate the foundation of national power sufficient to engage in
strategic competition with the US (Cabestan, 2021).
Regarding the trade aspect, leveraging its position as the “global manufacturing
workshop” and diverse network of trading partners, China has proactively led the process
of establishing regional and global trade mechanisms. When the BRI infrastructure
system becomes operational, China will enhance its ability to access and penetrate
markets along economic corridors. This initiative also creates opportunities for China to
shape, cooperate, and establish highly integrated bilateral, multilateral, and regional
economic agreements. In a decade of implementation, the BRI has played a dominant
role in mobilizing approximately $1 trillion USD in investment capital. Through the
deployment of more than 3,000 cooperation projects, China has facilitated the creation
of 420,000 job opportunities and made significant contributions to the process of lifting
nearly 40 million people out of poverty (Nedopil, 2023). The total trade volume between
China and countries along the BRI corridors in the five-year period from 2013 to 2018
exceeded $6 trillion. In 2017 alone, this index recorded a record growth of 14.2%, as
China imported goods valued at over $666 billion from these countries, accounting for
25% of the country’s total import value (Schulhof et al., 2022).
Beyond assuming a leadership role in the RCEP and supporting the process of joining the
Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP), China
actively promotes and utilizes multilateral mechanisms to diversify trade development.
This strategy includes promoting bilateral trade agreements and supporting the process
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of participating in Free Trade Agreements (FTAs). By fostering trade relations between
China and BRI countries, China not only contributes significantly to global economic
expansion but also creates momentum for domestic economic growth. This process
promotes mutually beneficial cooperative relationships and enhances the credibility of
the BRI, thereby attracting greater participation from more countries. In the financial
domain, a core component among the five pillars of the BRI, China has actively
participated in numerous multilateral financial cooperation initiatives with countries along
the BRI corridors. These efforts aim to integrate financial activities into the economic
structures of partner countries, creating political influence and establishing a foundation
for implementing BRI financial connectivity programs. Simultaneously, this approach
serves as the main channel promoting the internationalization of the CNY, aligning with
the increasingly evident trend of “de-dollarization” and China’s economic rise.
Overall, the BRI is positioned as a strategic tool helping Chinese corporations expand
their business operations and international influence, contributing to the realization of
China’s foreign security strategy. Through the BRI implementation process to date, China
has achieved concrete results in its foreign security strategy, creating a foundation to
respond to the significant challenges the country faces in the global geopolitical context.
4. BRI: Challenges on the Development Path under Xi Jinping
Despite achieving certain accomplishments in realizing foreign security objectives
through the BRI over the past decade, China still faces diverse geo-strategic risks and
challenges, particularly from geopolitical pressure exerted by the US and Western allies
in response to China’s rise. In the context of a transforming global security architecture,
the BRI faces the risk of stagnation, especially as some BRI projects become financially
unfeasible and numerous participating countries encounter public debt liquidity crises. In
response, China has implemented strategic adjustments aimed at maintaining
momentum for this initiative. Nevertheless, the BRI continues to confront several major
challenges:
First, the BRI is facing increasingly intense geo-strategic competition from major powers,
particularly the US and its Western bloc allies. Over the past decade, major powers have
actively positioned themselves to capture new development trends, establish
prerequisites, and endeavor to construct a global order aligned with their strategic
interests. The US, European Union, Russian Federation, India, Japan, and other nations
all aim to shape a world architecture favorable to their positions, and they perceive the
BRI as a strategic instrument for China to establish leadership and shape global security
structures (Thuan, 2021: 166). Consequently, powers with conflicting national interests
with China have undertaken strategic adjustments in their foreign security policies to
contain China’s rise. In this context, the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (QUAD)
comprising the US, India, Japan, and Australia is identified as a multilateral mechanism
aimed at containing the expansion of China’s geopolitical influence and power in the Indo-
Pacific region (Hung et al., 2025). Accordingly, powers that counterbalance China
continuously pursue their own programs to establish suitable regional and global security
structures while asserting their roles in a transforming world order.
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The Trump administration in its first term (2017-2021) introduced the “Free and Open
Indo-Pacific” (FOIP) strategy; strengthened multilateral cooperation within the QUAD
framework and initiated a trade war with China in 2018, as a strategic measure to contain
China’s rise in the region and establish a direct counterbalance to the BRI (Long & Yen,
2020). Although the US currently maintains advantages in economic and military
potential compared to China, this position is being strongly challenged due to China’s
superior economic development capacity, rapidly modernizing military capabilities
influenced by economic potential, and the development of domestic technical experts.
Accordingly, China is actively positioning itself to establish a strategic counterbalance
relationship with the US and aims to surpass the US in the future. The US-led QUAD has
established the QUAD Infrastructure Partnership”, evaluated as a “strategic initiative”
aimed at counterbalancing China’s BRI through promoting infrastructure investment
according to Western international standards (Kiet et al., 2024).
India maintains a consistent position of non-participation in the BRI, clearly
demonstrated through its official stance at the SCO conference in July 2023. India’s
cautious stance stems from security concerns related to one of the largest and most
notable BRI projects, the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), launched in 2015.
CPEC is a trade corridor connecting Pakistan’s Gwadar port on the Arabian Sea with
Kashgar, a city in China’s Xinjiang Uyghur Autonomous Region, notably passing through
the disputed Kashmir territory between India and Pakistan. The project involves the
construction of airports, railways, highways, pipelines, along with other types of
commercial and energy infrastructure. China’s total investment in the project has
reached $60 billion USD (Gill, 2019), as a Bharti (2023) analyzes that “India’s position
of not supporting the BRI reflects this nation’s distinct strategic vision regarding regional
infrastructure development projects”.
China has also anticipated India’s non-supportive attitude in the context of serious border
conflicts between these two Asian powers in the Himalayan region (Atkins et al., 2023).
Notably, the increasing presence and influence of the BRI in South Asia has exacerbated
the strategic interest conflict between India and China, while India’s Indo-Pacific strategy
and Act East policy are being vigorously implemented, focusing on Southeast Asia which
currently receives the largest total investment capital from the BRI at 44% (Hiep & Kiet,
2024). Currently, the prevailing view among Indian academic and policy-making circles
is that the BRI not only focuses on economic development but also aims at geopolitical
and strategic objectives, wherein the String of Pearls strategy is seen as a strategic
mechanism to encircle and limit India’s geopolitical space within its own territory, while
diminishing New Delhi’s strategic influence in the Indian Ocean region (Bharti, 2023).
Second, in the current international context, countries participating in the BRI are
exhibiting increasingly cautious and vigilant attitudes toward potential risks associated
with this initiative. The primary concern centers on the possibility of falling into so-called
“debt-trap diplomacythrough loans from Chinese-led financial institutions such as AIIB,
NDB, and SRF. Although the initial preferential terms offered to less developed countries
appear attractive, the operational mechanisms of these financial institutions have raised
serious concerns about transparency and governance, potentially pushing low and
middle-income countries into insolvency, which could pose risks to the national security
of developing countries participating in the BRI (Xiaojun, 2023). In global media, the
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case of Sri Lanka’s Hambantota Port is frequently cited as a typical example of a “debt
trap” (Moramudali & Panduwawala, 2024; Institute for Security and Development Policy,
2022). However, recent analyses have indicated that the reality is much more complex
and does not necessarily reflect a deliberate Chinese strategy (Himmer & Rod, 2022).
Many contemporary studies show no systematic pattern of China intentionally lending
beyond countries’ repayment capacity to gain control of strategic assets (Peng & Cheng,
2024). On the contrary, China has repeatedly restructured debts and, in some cases,
even implemented debt forgiveness for countries in difficulty, which is inconsistent with
the hypothesis of a deliberate “debt trap” strategy. Many researchers argue that the
concept of a “debt trap” is largely an interpretation from Western geopolitical
perspectives, particularly the US, stemming from concerns about China’s expanding
global influence (Jones & Hameri, 2022). To enhance the transparency of BRI projects,
in 2022, China implemented significant adjustments in debt management policies within
the BRI framework, a phenomenon referred to by Chinese researchers and internal
businesses as “BRI 2.0”. Accordingly, Chinese policy-making bodies have committed to
evaluating new projects (from 2023) with more stringent standards and allowing debt
renegotiationsa significant change from the previous rigid stance, when debt
repayment was considered a non-negotiable “red line” for BRI-participating countries
(Stanhope, 2023).
Within the BRI framework, China and Chinese state-owned enterprises directly invest in
and construct numerous large-scale infrastructure projects in strategically positioned
countries, including the CPEC (more than $60 billion USD), Bangladesh-China-India-
Myanmar Economic Corridor (BCIM) ($22 billion USD), Nepal-China Trans-Himalayan
Railway Project ($2,75 biliion USD) in South Asia, and multiple projects in Africa such as
the Kenya Railway Project ($5 billion USD), Djibouti Port ($590 million USD), Africa’s
longest suspension bridge ($786 million USD), and mineral exploitation projects in
Botswana ($1.9 billion USD). These projects are primarily financed through loans from
Chinese-backed financial institutions. Through the BRI, China has established a
mechanism that makes many developing countries increasingly dependent on Chinese
capital, enabling Beijing to leverage this dependency relationship to expand its
geopolitical influence. According to research by Himmer and Rod (2022), the BRI risks
creating unsustainable debt burdens for countries with vulnerable economies in Africa
and Asia. Specifically, Djibouti has debts to China amounting to $1.4 billion (equivalent
to approximately 45% of the country’s GDP), Kenya ($8 billion), Pakistan ($68.91 billion),
Laos (approximately $6 billion), Maldives ($1.37 billion, accounting for about 40% of
public debt), and Sri Lanka ($8.8 billion). Countries located along the BRI corridors face
significant challenges in managing these debts, especially in the context of the US and
Western allies continuously warning about China’s “debt trap strategy” and
recommending that BRI-participating countries carefully consider potential
consequences. Notably, credit risk is significantly increasing, with debt to China
exceeding 15% of GDP in many low and middle-income countries globally (Horn et al.,
2021).
Currently, according to the latest research data, 23 countries are in a state of “dangerous
debt” due to participation in infrastructure development projects under the BRI (Liu,
2023). Many infrastructure projects implemented by China in these countries have
revealed serious limitations, particularly a lack of transparency in financial management
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and a tendency to use suboptimal technology. Consequently, recipient countries not only
bear the debt burden to China but also face the risk of partial infringement on national
sovereignty. A prominent characteristic of China’s lending policy is the absence of strict
conditions imposed on recipient countries; in many cases, even disregarding
environmental and social impact assessments or economic efficiency evaluations of
funded projects. The World Wide Fund for Nature (WWF) (2023) has issued warnings
about significant ecological impacts, indicating that development corridors planned under
the BRI will overlap with the habitats of 265 endangered species, including the saiga
antelope, tigers, and giant pandas. WWF (2023) research has also identified that these
routes encroach upon 1,739 protected important bird areas or key biodiversity areas,
along with 46 global biodiversity hotspots. Despite the potential negative impacts on the
ecosystems of BRI-participating countries, China’s policies primarily focus on securing
favorable financial terms, including: commercial interest rate commitments, debt
repayment mechanisms using natural resources, requirements for controlling equity
stakes in local enterprises, or guaranteed preferential access to recipient countries’
domestic markets for Chinese exports (Liu, 2023).
According to Brobbey’s analysis (2018), there are four main structural causes leading to
the increasing debt situation of BRI-participating countries:
(i) Lack of comprehensive assessment of debt repayment capacity: Many BRI projects
are implemented without thorough evaluations of the financial capacity and long-term
debt servicing ability of recipient countries. This issue is particularly serious for
developing economies with weak financial foundations, often leading to unsustainable
debt-to-GDP ratios.
(ii) Lack of transparency and competition in the bidding process: Many BRI contracts are
signed without following open, transparent, and competitive bidding processes between
contractors, facilitating cost inflation and increasing the risk of budget losses.
(iii) Project costs often far exceed initial estimates: Due to lack of experience in managing
and implementing large-scale infrastructure projects, actual costs are often significantly
higher than initial budgets, forcing countries to borrow more to complete projects.
(iv) Many BRI projects face significant environmental and social risks, causing opposition
from local communities due to negative impacts on living environments and issues
related to resettlement, resulting in implementation delays and increasing total project
costs.
To illustrate specifically, the Kaliwa Dam Project in the Philippines with a total investment
of $211 million USD has encountered strong opposition from many stakeholders. This
project plans to construct a 60-meter high concrete dam and a 25-kilometer water tunnel
in the border area between Rizal and Quezon provinces, causing serious environmental
and social risks. The dam construction not only threatens the natural ecosystem and
biodiversity in the area but also puts the Dumagats and Remontados ethnic communities
at risk of losing ancestral lands (Chavez, 2024). Notably, the Philippine administration
under President Duterte was accused of using fraudulent and coercive measures to force
indigenous communities to sign “Free, Prior, and Informed Consent” (FPIC) agreements.
The most serious case was recorded in May 2016, when village chief Alan Buenodicio
died after allegedly being forced by military personnel to drink alcohol every morning for
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refusing to surrender community land rights. Additionally, other projects such as the
Chico River Pump Irrigation project ($88 million USD) and the Sangley Point International
Airport project ($10.2 billion USD) in the Philippines also faced strong opposition from
local communities and government members (Bharti & Kumari, 2024).
Similarly, the East Coast Rail Link (ECRL) project in Malaysia has faced serious criticism
regarding environmental and social risks. This project was suspended after the Malaysian
Anti-Corruption Commission (MACC) discovered abnormally inflated contract values and
approximately $700 million had been diverted to pay debts related to the 1MDB national
development fund. Prime Minister Mahathir decided to cancel the project, partly due to
the unstable financial condition of Malaysia’s economy and unfavorable terms in the BRI
contract. Additionally, the project posed potential negative environmental impacts due
to the large land area required for the railway. As a result, this project had to be
renegotiated, reducing the total cost from $19.9 billion to $10.7 billion in April 2019
(Bharti & Kumari, 2024).
In general, structural weaknesses in project governance, incomplete risk assessments,
and lack of transparency in BRI projects have led to increasingly heavy debt burdens for
many participating countries, posing serious challenges to long-term financial
sustainability.
Third, Chinese enterprises participating in the BRI face significant risks in cross-border
investment activities. Although the BRI is a large-scale international cooperation
initiative, its development and governance mechanisms are primarily unilaterally
designed and operated by China. The BRI currently faces stringent scrutiny from Western
economies, particularly the US and the European Union, entities that view the BRI as an
instrument for expanding China’s geopolitical influence. Consequently, Chinese
enterprises operating in BRI-participating countries often face unpredictable challenges,
while errors and risks in project implementation are closely monitored by international
oversight bodies and Western media and publicized globally. Factors such as cultural
disparities, differences in legal frameworks, political volatility, and ecological-
environmental conditions can create significant barriers to the economic interests of
Chinese enterprises (Weng et al., 2021). Additionally, non-traditional security threats,
especially terrorist activities in African and Central Asian regions, further exacerbate
these challenges. The consequences of these risks are evidenced by the suspension or
cancellation of numerous Chinese investment projects across various countries.
Specifically, Malaysia canceled projects worth $11.58 billion USD between 2013-2021,
while similar concerns led to the cancellation of projects valued at over $1 billion USD in
Bolivia and nearly $1.5 billion USD in Kazakhstan (Bharti & Kumari, 2024). The $2.7
billion USD Coca Codo Sinclair hydroelectric project in Ecuador, with serious structural
quality issues, exemplifies the investment security challenges that Chinese enterprises
face (Business & Human Rights Resource Centre, 2023).
Empirical studies, such as the report by AidData (2021), have published alarming figures:
35% of BRI projects face allegations of corruption, labor rights violations, negative
environmental impacts, and opposition from local communities. “BRI projects are
predicted to increase global warming by 3 degrees Celsius which could force over 100
million people in Asia into extreme poverty (Felsen, 2024). Besdies, many BRI-
participating countries are facing financial risks due to investments from China, with 42
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low and middle-income countries currently having debt to China exceeding 10% of annual
GDP (Aidata, 2021). Notably, researchers have identified $385 billion in loans from China
not recorded in official statistics (Aidata, 2021). This figure equals nearly 50% of the
total value of loans that China provides for transnational infrastructure projects being
concealed (Aidata, 2021). Uzbekistan continues to increase its debt to Beijing, while
Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan are among countries with particularly high hidden debts,
creating financial pressure on Chinese enterprises (Aidata, 2021). Therefore, the BRI,
under the strategic direction of President Xi Jinping, is implemented by Chinese
enterprises according to state policy orientation. However, in the context of volatile global
market conditions, influenced by both partner countries and China’s domestic policies,
these enterprises increasingly encounter obstacles in implementing international projects
within the BRI framework, risking insolvency and bankruptcy.
Fourth, a significant structural challenge facing the BRI is the risk of systemic financial
instability. The outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic in 2019 created a serious
multidimensional shock to the BRI’s integration within the global economic architecture,
particularly affecting low and middle-income developing countries (Demiryol, 2022).
These countries faced project implementation stagnation and severe deterioration in the
financial viability of flagship projects, while still having to maintain debt payment
obligations to China. Furthermore, the Russia-Ukraine conflict disrupted strategic supply
chains, leading to food security instability and volatility in food and energy prices, with
Africa being the most affected region due to serious dependence on food supplies from
Russia and Ukraine (Hassen & Bilali, 2024). This adds to the financial burden on BRI
participating countries in regions already repaying BRI loans to China.
Simultaneously, cases of systemic corruption and bribery during negotiations of bilateral
loan agreements with China have undermined the political-social stability of many
recipient countries, as evidenced through the multi-layered crisis in Sri Lanka
(Attanayake, 2023). Additionally, many BRI-funded infrastructures have begun revealing
technical deficiencies and serious premature deterioration, with the $2.7 billion USD Coca
Codo Sinclair hydroelectric project in Ecuador being a prime example (Business & Human
Rights Resource Centre, 2023). Thousands of structural cracks have appeared in the
plant built by Chinese companies. Considering this project’s strategic importance to
Ecuador’s national energy security, investing in remedying these technical deficiencies
risks pushing this South American nation into an even more serious public debt crisis.
These factors continuously challenge the sustainability and strategic resilience of the BRI.
Increasing questions about the BRI’s geo-strategic effectiveness continue to exist,
exemplified by Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni’s official announcement of withdrawal
from the BRI initiative on December 9, 2023, before the official cooperation agreement
expired in March 2024. Despite numerous hypotheses suggesting the US implemented
diplomatic measures to influence Rome’s decision, Italy’s withdrawalas the only G7
member participating in the BRI—has created a significant negative impact on the BRI’s
international image and legitimacy. Moreover, BRI projects have been criticized for being
prone to corruption while severely lacking economic sustainability, regulatory
transparency, and good governance. This has led to competing initiatives, such as the
EU’s Global Gateway and the US Build Back Better World (B3W) initiative, aimed at
providing alternatives to the BRI. Additionally, direct geo-strategic competition models
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between the BRI and counterbalancing initiatives such as the FOIP and the QUAD have
posed multidimensional challenges to the BRI’s development trajectory, as
counterbalancing powers increase strategic and economic pressure on BRI participating
countries, forcing them to reconsider or withdraw from strategic projects within the BRI
framework.
In general, the BRI’s $1 trillion USD cross-national infrastructure investment program
faces an alarming increase in non-recoverable debts: “As of 2023, just within the past
three years, $78 billion USD of the total value of loans under this initiative has become
non-performing or required restructuring through debt relief mechanisms” (Vietnam
Institute of International Finance 2023). This figure is four times higher than the total
value of debts China was forced to negotiate restructuring or cancellation during the
2017-2019 period ($17 billion USD) (Vietnam Institute of International Finance 2023).
According to analysis by economists Sebastian Horn, Carmen Reinhart, and Christoph
Trebesch cited by the Wall Street Journal, BRI participating countries experiencing
financial instability currently hold nearly 60% of the total value of China’s foreign loans,
a significant increase compared to just 5% in 2010the pre-BRI period (Whitehouse,
2022). Consequently, the escalation of non-repayable debts has made China the largest
bilateral creditor globally, creating a financial-budgetary burden not only for China but
also for emerging financial institutions within the BRI framework such as the SRF, NDB,
and AIIBmultilateral financial mechanisms led by China or with significant Chinese
investment.
Conclusion
A comprehensive analysis reveals that the BRI plays a vital role in China’s foreign security
strategic architecture over the past decade. Through the BRI, China has implemented
core strategic objectives such as: creating the image of a responsible and peace-oriented
power, promoting multilateral economic integration, ensuring maritime security along
strategic sea routes, and shaping the geo-strategic context in accordance with China’s
national interests. After a decade of implementation, the BRI has achieved many
noteworthy accomplishments. Beijing has focused on expanding its geopolitical sphere of
influence and enhancing propaganda surrounding the BRI through a multi-layered “policy
connectivity” strategy, strengthening cultural and people-to-people exchanges,
establishing competitive alternative financial mechanisms, accelerating cross-border
infrastructure investment, and promoting trade-financial cooperation with participating
countries. These strategic achievements have contributed significantly to elevating
China’s position and international influence within the global governance system.
However, the BRI also faces substantial structural challenges. Increasingly intense geo-
strategic competition from major powers, particularly the US and its allies; growing
concerns from partner countries about the risks of “debt traps” and strategic
dependency; difficulties in the operations of Chinese economic entities in cross-national
investment environments; and the potential for the BRI to lose momentum due to
geopolitical shocks such as the COVID-19 pandemic and the Russia-Ukraine conflictall
are creating significant pressure on this strategic initiative. Overcoming these structural
challenges will be the determining factor for China to successfully realize its foreign
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security strategic objectives through the BRI and consolidate its position as a power with
global influence.
In the context of increasingly complex and multidimensional geopolitical competition
among major powers, the BRI plays a pivotal role in China’s strategy to expand its
regional and global spheres of influence. However, the strategic effectiveness of the BRI
will depend on China’s capacity to provide comprehensive and sustainable solutions to
the challenges mentioned, while maintaining strategic credibility and support from
participating countries. If successful, the BRI will not only help China realize its foreign
security strategic objectives but also has the potential to become one of the important
strategic foundations for China to establish its position as a global superpower in the 21st
century, challenging the Western-led international order and creating a multipolar world
order with China’s central role.
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